India’s Defence Strategy, Marut & Tejas Programs, Air Power & China Challenge | Bharat Karnad
Those interested in the larger subject of India’s not being strategic-minded may want to listen in on this podcast (hosted by Ravi Kapur). [Alert: I misspoke on Tipu Sultan’s defeat at Seringapatna as on the Krishna River, it is the Kaveri River!]
Senior Fellow in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, he was Member of the (1st) National Security Advisory Board and the Nuclear Doctrine-drafting Group, and author, among other books of, 'Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy', 'India's Nuclear Policy' and most recently, 'Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)'. Educated at the University of California (undergrad and grad), he was Visiting Scholar at Princeton University, University of Pennsylvania, the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC.
Watched it great session as always. I’ve never missed a lecture from Dr. Karnad.
But, Professor, I wanted to ask about the recently commissioned Indian SSBN, INS Aridhaman, the third boat of the Arihant class. Officially, it is said to have a displacement of around 7,000 tonnes.
However, you mentioned in your blog that it actually displaces far more than advertised and that its true capabilities are significantly greater.
Can you pls elaborate a little bit more what’s the source for this!
Are you for real? You seems to be at the “abc” level in the primary school of geopolitics. I am surprised that Prof condescended to answer your puerile question.
The prof has problem responding to the question this same stupid attitude of shaming people for asking question has made us docile stop being class monitor I like Gen z in that sense very upfront and bold hope they bring some change
professor we have so much mineral reserves. Can’t we use it for demanding defense ai quantum technology from usa? GOI now asking salman khan galwan valley film to change scenes. When will we get a govt with a vision??
Should we finally decide to shift our nuclear policy to first use and acquire a thermonuclear weapon, which countries other than China, Pakistan and USA should be on the list of targets? Turkiye, Aizerbaijan and maybe other European countries?
Have we switched to defensive offence against Pakistan? After ops sindoor Pakistan has been in trouble throughout. Do you think we have shifted to ‘Kootyuddha’ finally? Maybe Balochistan is on the cards?
If Unmanned vehicles, both serial and maritime, are ‘strategic disruptors’, how effective will they be in ensuring that China is unable to study the IOR sea beds.
Whoa, there! First get the Hydrogen Bomb!
We are still on offensive defence — whatever that means to the army, AF, and navy!
The IOR seabed survey by PLAN cannot be stopped short of interdiction
A Pakistani military contingent comprising around 13,000 soldiers and 10 to 18 jets has reached Saudi Arabia in the midst of failure of so called islamabad accords.
Professor, Do you think it’s just symbolism by Pakistan towards ksa or there is real possibility of pakistan getting involved in conflict with iran now?
Prof., now that Trump has said that he will blockade the Strait of Hormuz—seemingly following the suggestion from Richard Haas, are Indians to just sit and observe an extraneous power threaten to blockade our energy supplies ? Although it does seem like a negotiating pressure tactic, acting like bystanders in this matter just feels disgusting.
All asian bystanders should have come together and India joined them rather than this UK lead initiative. Asian nations should have negotiated sanctions relief with Iran in exchange for Hormuz access and dumped US. Now US has preempted all that and will punish any country which pays the Iran toll and vowed to blockade all oil flow. Monday will be bad day for markets. Oil is already $140 for delivery. Richard Haas has caused further mayhem with his Idea whoch Trump has lapped up searching for a silver bullet which can save him from humiliating defeat. Only China gives some hope if at all of breaking this US blockade. India appears unwilling to standup to USA and only trying to save its citizens in Gulf for now.
Very few voices in India are saying what needs to be said. US is treating India like a colony and trampling on its interests.
professor why do our policymakers underestimate the russian federation? Why do they think usa is the answer for our problems with china? According to me russian weapons which they may give if we go for RIC are more than enough for us to deter china conventionally or even defeat china if there is ever a war between india and china.
What are the prospects of importing the human capital (like those who developed F35, Su57, Rafale) rather than importing aircrafts? I saw their profiles in linkedin, they are ready to give their loyalty if paid handsomely.
In few hundred crores, we can get our indigenous jet in a couple of years.
We can easily accommodate them in our lavish government bunglows (by removing those enjoying post retirement sinecure).
Yes, we can, even weapons designers & program managers. Narasimha Rao screwed up by not taking the lot of missile and nuclear weapons designers offered us by Yeltsin in the 1990s @ $200/month +room+board coz the top babu, cabinet secretary, complained that that remuneration package would exceed his salary! The PM complied!! That entire lot went where, you guessed it, China!
wow, this could’ve been India’s Von Braun moment. When all the German rocket designers led by Werner Von Braun joined NASA, America’s space program got a real head start.
A real shame India couldn’t leverage this opportunity.
Professor, looking back at the US/Israel–Iran conflict, one of the key reasons Iran was able to endure the war—even after much of its political leadership was eliminated—was the Pasdaran’s use of asymmetric and decentralized warfare. Considering this, could a similar approach be adapted in India? For instance, could the Indian Police Service, particularly in border states, be trained to support the armed forces using FPVs or low-cost loitering munitions? This might not place a significant strain on the defense budget while also enabling a more flexible and unpredictable offensive capability.
My question is that- instead of pestering our allies to share source codes for cutting edge defense technologies, why India is hesitant to import the human capital? Instead of paying ₹75000 crore for Rafale deal, it wouldn’t it be nice if we hire the brains behind the design and develop better machines in India.
At a recent book launch for Operation Sindoor, Air Marshal Tiwari argued against a unified rocket command, pushing for more manned fighters instead. But looking at the Sindoor timeline, our operational brilliance was undercut by a two week bureaucratic delay. Meanwhile, adversaries have reorganized, consolidating conventional missiles and drone swarms under single operational authorities to achieve strikes within hours[PAK Army Rocket Force Command].
India has superior standoff weapons, but they are scattered across artillery, strike squadrons, and naval systems. The delay in inter-service coordination consumes the exact 24-48 hour window where limited wars are decided and narratives are locked in.
Is the resistance to a Joint Strike Command purely an IAF turf war to protect its deep-strike prestige? And without a ‘Key West Agreement’ style civilian intervention, how does India fix this fatal gap in our organizational velocity?”
Security Wise 
@BharatKarnad
Watched it great session as always. I’ve never missed a lecture from Dr. Karnad.
But, Professor, I wanted to ask about the recently commissioned Indian SSBN, INS Aridhaman, the third boat of the Arihant class. Officially, it is said to have a displacement of around 7,000 tonnes.
However, you mentioned in your blog that it actually displaces far more than advertised and that its true capabilities are significantly greater.
Can you pls elaborate a little bit more what’s the source for this!
Not a big deal whether the displacement is 7,000 tons or +. What matters is the larger missile-torpedo load.
@BharatKarnad
Well yes professor it carries 8 VLS tubes for 8 long range K4/K5 SLBM which can very well reach thr eastern Seabored
And the K5s are Mirv too
But do you have some info about how silent the arihant class is when compared to the chinese Jin class type 094
How much stealthy it is?Anything you are willing to share
Indian SSBNs have been quieter and stealthier than the Chinese 092s and 094s.
professor shall we do regime change in myanmar Indonesia for control over Malacca strait?
We are in no position to do so.
Are you for real? You seems to be at the “abc” level in the primary school of geopolitics. I am surprised that Prof condescended to answer your puerile question.
I have learned to be a bloody minded realist after reading professor karnad’s blogs since op sindoor.
No he’s right. If India becomes powerful enough , thats one of the first things we should do.
The prof has problem responding to the question this same stupid attitude of shaming people for asking question has made us docile stop being class monitor
I like Gen z in that sense very upfront and bold hope they bring some change
Professor,
There is always talks about china invading taiwan with 2027 deadline. What do you think it will happen now or later or never ?
Such timelines is how Beijing keeps Taiwan on tenterhooks, the US guessing, and the rest of the world unsettled!
Well said, Karnad Sir. As I said during our meeting Chinese are an overhyped lot and by Chinese I mean the government here.
Majority of people here are hardworking and remain busy in climbing up the economic and social ladder.
The Chinese establishment acts tough but lacks the expertise and ruthlessness of Russians and the Yankees.
professor we have so much mineral reserves. Can’t we use it for demanding defense ai quantum technology from usa? GOI now asking salman khan galwan valley film to change scenes. When will we get a govt with a vision??
Greetings professor.
Three questions:
Thanks and regards,
Jai Hind!
Whoa, there! First get the Hydrogen Bomb!
We are still on offensive defence — whatever that means to the army, AF, and navy!
The IOR seabed survey by PLAN cannot be stopped short of interdiction
Oh, Prime Minister Nehru did some ‘extraordinary things’? Wonder how the IT cell and khattar Hindus will spin it.
what you want to say??
A Pakistani military contingent comprising around 13,000 soldiers and 10 to 18 jets has reached Saudi Arabia in the midst of failure of so called islamabad accords.
Professor, Do you think it’s just symbolism by Pakistan towards ksa or there is real possibility of pakistan getting involved in conflict with iran now?
Pakistan is putting its neck on the Israeli blade
How? It’s iran bombing saudi arabua. Or do you think israel wants to achieve greater israel?
Greetings Professor.
Pakistanis have gotten themselves into a soup haven’t they?
Will they fight Iran first and then Israel next? A tad bit naive in my opinion.
Anyway sir, here is my question.
Given a choice between Pasani and Bagram, which base do you think Americans will choose sir?
I could be wrong but I think Bagram is off the table now. Pasani could be the one Americans would like. Please correct me if I am wrong sir.
Thanks and Regards,
Jai Hind!
Choice-wise, you are right, Pasni on the coast, down the coast from Gwadar as also a counterweight to China
From Smita Purushottam, IFS (Retd), former ambassador to Switzerland
Sun, Apr 12 at 2:21 PM
The lack of vision in the IAF, unlike the IN, good interview by Bharat Karnad.
Prof., now that Trump has said that he will blockade the Strait of Hormuz—seemingly following the suggestion from Richard Haas, are Indians to just sit and observe an extraneous power threaten to blockade our energy supplies ? Although it does seem like a negotiating pressure tactic, acting like bystanders in this matter just feels disgusting.
What do you want india to do to not feel disgusted?
All asian bystanders should have come together and India joined them rather than this UK lead initiative. Asian nations should have negotiated sanctions relief with Iran in exchange for Hormuz access and dumped US. Now US has preempted all that and will punish any country which pays the Iran toll and vowed to blockade all oil flow. Monday will be bad day for markets. Oil is already $140 for delivery. Richard Haas has caused further mayhem with his Idea whoch Trump has lapped up searching for a silver bullet which can save him from humiliating defeat. Only China gives some hope if at all of breaking this US blockade. India appears unwilling to standup to USA and only trying to save its citizens in Gulf for now.
Very few voices in India are saying what needs to be said. US is treating India like a colony and trampling on its interests.
professor why do our policymakers underestimate the russian federation? Why do they think usa is the answer for our problems with china? According to me russian weapons which they may give if we go for RIC are more than enough for us to deter china conventionally or even defeat china if there is ever a war between india and china.
what is your opinion?
GOI says it wants to diversify. But the US is an unreliable supplier. So…
Professor Karnad,
What are the prospects of importing the human capital (like those who developed F35, Su57, Rafale) rather than importing aircrafts? I saw their profiles in linkedin, they are ready to give their loyalty if paid handsomely.
In few hundred crores, we can get our indigenous jet in a couple of years.
We can easily accommodate them in our lavish government bunglows (by removing those enjoying post retirement sinecure).
Yes, we can, even weapons designers & program managers. Narasimha Rao screwed up by not taking the lot of missile and nuclear weapons designers offered us by Yeltsin in the 1990s @ $200/month +room+board coz the top babu, cabinet secretary, complained that that remuneration package would exceed his salary! The PM complied!! That entire lot went where, you guessed it, China!
wow, this could’ve been India’s Von Braun moment. When all the German rocket designers led by Werner Von Braun joined NASA, America’s space program got a real head start.
A real shame India couldn’t leverage this opportunity.
Professor, looking back at the US/Israel–Iran conflict, one of the key reasons Iran was able to endure the war—even after much of its political leadership was eliminated—was the Pasdaran’s use of asymmetric and decentralized warfare. Considering this, could a similar approach be adapted in India? For instance, could the Indian Police Service, particularly in border states, be trained to support the armed forces using FPVs or low-cost loitering munitions? This might not place a significant strain on the defense budget while also enabling a more flexible and unpredictable offensive capability.
Sure
Greetings Sir,
It was good to hear you.
My question is that- instead of pestering our allies to share source codes for cutting edge defense technologies, why India is hesitant to import the human capital? Instead of paying ₹75000 crore for Rafale deal, it wouldn’t it be nice if we hire the brains behind the design and develop better machines in India.
Thank you!
We could, but don’t because that would hurt DRDO’s amor propre’!
Professor
At a recent book launch for Operation Sindoor, Air Marshal Tiwari argued against a unified rocket command, pushing for more manned fighters instead. But looking at the Sindoor timeline, our operational brilliance was undercut by a two week bureaucratic delay. Meanwhile, adversaries have reorganized, consolidating conventional missiles and drone swarms under single operational authorities to achieve strikes within hours[PAK Army Rocket Force Command].
India has superior standoff weapons, but they are scattered across artillery, strike squadrons, and naval systems. The delay in inter-service coordination consumes the exact 24-48 hour window where limited wars are decided and narratives are locked in.
Is the resistance to a Joint Strike Command purely an IAF turf war to protect its deep-strike prestige? And without a ‘Key West Agreement’ style civilian intervention, how does India fix this fatal gap in our organizational velocity?”
IAF has always been the dog in the manger, and keeps getting in India’s way
professor what is this?
👇
Mission Sudarshan Chakra – Wikipedia https://share.google/Ictm0BJvC2Dp9VpxQ
another question, during cold war us cia was expert in regime change by covert means in adversary military. Why is us not doing such after 9/11?
It is what it says it’ll do!
Do you see structual changes happening in us foreign policy after iran war or there will be war between us and eu over greenland?
will trump be impeached?
Trump covets Greenland but will not force the issue. Impeached? No