[Hamas rockets from Gaza streaking towards Israeli settlements]
The Hamas operation staged out of the Gaza Strip against the adjoining settlements in southern Israel yesterday was astonishing in its complexity and effectiveness. It was not terrorist action, but an extraordinary full-fledged military operation, carried out in complete radio silence, combining absolute surprise with precision coordinated moves involving fighting assets in air, sea and land.
To conceive of such a plan was mindboggling enough. To actually carry it out with such success without Mossad or any other Israeli intellignce unit getting a whiff of it is unthinkable. I mean, where did the Hamas units practice these actions? In Iran? Perhaps. Because this operation couldn’t have been carried out without repeated and intense exercises and live gaming anywhere else. Because it certainly would have been noticed if done in Gaza, or in Jordan, or even in the Sinai Peninsula. Think of it — a coordinated attack by powered gliders, seaborne commando, and bulldozers as infantry-carriers ploughing through the walls Israel had erected to protect its border towns. The operation got underway under the cover of a rocket barrage that overwhelmed the ‘Iron Dome’ — the vaunted Israeli tactical air defence system! What chutzpah (a Yiddish word derived from Hebrew denoting audacity, and pronounced ‘hutspah’)!
Of course, the Hamas aim was to kill Israelis indiscriminately and also to take a large number of them as hostages for eventual exchange of prisoners because the only thing the Israeli state values more than its territory are its people. The casualty-death rate of some 1,250 Israelis in a population of some 10 million may not seem large in absolute numbers. But it becomes earthshaking when one realizes — just to get a perspective — the potential proportionate effect on India if 87,000 Indian citizens were killed in a surprise terrorist attack in a population of 1.3 billion. It is a readymade setting for a ferocious blood-fevered response, and Palestinian Gaza would by now have been decimated but for the fact that the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) does not know where the Israeli hostages are hidden by Hamas, and they cannot take a chance of hurting any of them. So, of course, known Hamas facilities will be bombed as has already been done. But a full Israeli retribution will have to await the hostage return, which fact has bought Hamas a bit of time and even leverage with Jerusalem. But agencies or persons in nearby Islamic countries if they are fingered as having the remotest role in the Hamas operation, will get it in the neck.
And then there is Iran — Israel’s Number One sworn enemy with a prime role in the Hamas op, and against whom IDF would very much like to move soonest. Except, there’s a little political complication. Leading Israeli strategists doubt if US President Joe Biden’s statement issued in support of Israel, tolerates precipitate Israeli reaction. “It is not clear”, writes Eldad Shavit, a former Mossad agent and colonel in Israeli Defence Intelligence, now with the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv, “whether [the US] would support an Israeli response against Hezbollah (or other actors) or would act independently to fulfill its warning.”
The reason Israelis are right is that US security promises are one thing. But quite another thing for IDF to attack Iran frontally and endanger a likely reworked Iranian nonproliferation agreement junked by Trump that’s on the anvil and which, Washington has long argued will address the Israeli government’s fears of Tehran covertly crossing the nuclear weapons threshold. The US fear is also that it may ignite yet another theatre of war with Russia and China jumping in on Iran’s side. But the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu faces a dilemma. He cannot not react violently and order punitive strikes, or something visibly lethal and still keep his government in power, as he has only a slim margin of safety relying as his Likud Party does in the knesset (Parliament) on other rightwing parties, some more extreme than his own. It will be interesting to see how Netanyahu resolves this problem — do something in Gaza and possibly hurt the hostages, take action against Iran and face American wrath, or do neither of these things and see his regime fall.
But to get back to the Hamas action — the uniqueness of this multi-medium, multi-pronged, Hamas operation and the success it fetched is all the more stunning compared to Russia’s failed but ambitious curtain raiser-action to take Kyiv and end the hostilities on the very first day of the war against Ukraine that has gone on for over a year and pretty much dragged the Russian military’s reputation through the mud. On that first day (February 24, 2022), Russia’s plan involved simultaneous paradropped Spetznaz (Special Forces), row upon row of low-flying Su-25 ground attack aircraft, and armoured columns converging on the Ukrainian capital. All this came to nought when the paracommando got shot up when descending, and those who landed were hunted and killed, the Su-25s lost their punch owing to intense and accurate Ukrainian Igla (manpads) strikes and ack-ack, and Russian tanks got bogged down in their advance for a host of reasons.
So, the unexpectedly imaginative Palestinian actions will have several effects: It will pump up the military reputation of, and legitimate, Hamas as Arab Palestine’s premier fighting arm and, proportionately, take down Israel’s well-earnd reputation for a proactive military stance, preparedness and precocity, and especially Mossad’s preternatural situation awareness. It is, moreover, the first notable Islamic military success in, what, a millenniumm?! Islamic military successes have been so few and far between, Muslim peoples everywhere will bask in Hamas’ reflected glory for a while. Politically, it will compel all Islamic countries to fall behind Hamas and the Palestinian cause — blighting certainly in the medium term future the prospects of the Abrahamic accords that the supposed leader of the sunni Islamic world, Saudi Arabia, was all set to join in order to forge an ostensibly permanent Israel-Arab peace. That’s gone for a toss. The calls for jihad against Israel in the Islamic bloc will revive, gain new adherents, new strength, new financing, and Hamas’ future has suddenly brightened beyond its wildest dreams.
But militarily, it is shia Islamic bloc leader, Iran, which will have the most to crow about, and whose image will be burnished because the low level powered-glider descent of the aerial attacking force– the great military innovation in these hostilities, was something Tehran’s shia armed militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah, tried out first in 2007 against Israel, and tips and lessons from which action were doubtless onpassed to the Hamas command. It will also be seen as avenging Israeli assassinations over the years of Iranian nuclear/missile scientists and, in January 2020, of the head of the Quds Force — the lead offensive element of the Pasdaran (Iranian Revolutionary Guard), Major General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad.
What’s the fallout, if any, for India? Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon staffer presently with the conservative think tank — American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, for one fears that the Hamas action will resonate in terrorist (ISI-aided Laskar-e-Tayyaba, Harkat ul-mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Tehreeq-i-Taliban Pakistan) circles in Pakistan and extremist outfits in J&K, arrayed against India, and that some of these groups would be tempted to try and execute a still bigger bang operation. In the event, if there’s again a Mumbai-type attack or strike on Parliament or worse, India should be prepared to pull out terrorist gangs root and branch from Pakistan, or where ever else they may be found. This is a plausible case for a very hard Indian reaction. May be this is what Prime Minister Narendra Modi is thinking, whence his whole hearted support for Israel even at the cost potentially of harming relations with the Gulf countries with whose leaders he has developed a special warmth.
But should the Indian government not ponder more sustained, harsher, response targeting the violent Khalistani groups residing in safe havens in the US, Canada, and Australia? Ah, there’s the rub!
Security Wise 
Besides the surprise, the savagery exhibited by the Islamites is simply dumbfounding. Who orchestrates their PR? Showing one and two year old Israeli children in tiny chicken cages, sitting on the dead body of an obviously brutalized Israeli teen… may turn on some Muslims but the rest of the world will turn away in disgust and horror. It is time that Jonathan Greenblatt find another pursuit and leave X alone. And Musk is not his enemy.
Professor,
While the initial strike by Hamas is definitely a battle victory and great solace to the Muslim world, it is just the beginning. Too early to say how it will impact the Abrahamic accords and relations of West Asia and the West. It also depends on who all were involved in the current attack. I’ve heard all kinds of names, from Russia, China to the CIA, Iran, Syria, Saudis and Israel itself.
I think it matters who planned, instigated and executed these attacks. If it’s just Iran that did it, it’s one thing. But if Russia, China and Iran planned it to distract the U.S. in the Middle East, it’s another matter. All that is clear is that the U.S. will be further distracted in West Asia, with less mental focus on China.
Agree that the impact on India could be potentially negative. However, I’m not sure that Pak terror groups can plan and execute such attacks on India. In fact, there is talk of a war between Afganistan and Pakistan. India should exploit such divisions to its advantage.
A big source of funding for ISI and the terror groups is the drug money from Afghanistan (perhaps Pakistan too). India should work with the Taliban to further curtail poppy crops in Afghanistan and turn the screws of drug funding of the ISI. And continue its covert war in Pakistan. This could also be an opportunity for RAW to stamp on the CIA and MSS in Pakistan. Both could be distracted due to the current war in Gaza, but it’s likely India is doing its bit in its neighbourhood.
Hamas deserves a pat in the back from purely a military/operational point of view. These guys pulled off something which the failed CT experts at the Pentagon simply cannot conceive. This incident has also taken sheen off the much vaunted Mossad which many low IQ armchair experts in this country idolize. The Israeli state should not be surprised at what is happening. They had it coming. Overreach(countless illegal settlements) with an overhyped(and now apparently incompetent) military and intelligence services will not go unpunished. Enemies respect nothing but raw brute strength and ruthlessness. That is an unwritten law of warfare as old as the human race itself.
The Israel-palestine conflict is a classic strife between uninvited white settler colonists who very clearly intend to gradually eliminate the “native savages” in “America style”. Only in this case, the settlers are backed to the hilt by the Anglo-Saxon imperialists and their continental European lapdogs. The only difference between palestine and 17-18th century America is that the Arabs are fighting back tooth and nail, much to the angst of the colonizers and their imperial masters in DC. People in this country with IQ equivalent to room temperature, view this from an anti-Muslim lens while totally forgetting that white Jews are among the most radical of the Abhramics and highly contemptuous of ordinary Indians. Personally, I cannot care less about the either of the two belligerents but it is essential for someone to state the unblemished facts as they are.
The unblemished fact is that you are one of those low iq Indians.
It will be great to see Tehran getting bombed for the message to hit. No doubt and unfortunately many Palestinians will die – but that is the cost to pay!
Support for Balochistan will solve both the Iran & Pakistan problems together. It would even give the US a path into the heart of Central Asia, to put both Moscow & Beijing under pressure.
By email from Gautam Sen:
To:
bharat karnad
Sun, 8 Oct at 11:48 pm
Response to a suggestion that it’s hard to believe there was an intelligence failure and the possibility of a cynical motive.
We will only know after the unfolding Israeli military action in Gaza if there was a cynical purpose in the shedding of Jewish blood by failing to interdict Hamas. But I doubt that very much because shedding Jewish blood is a big no no for Israelis owing to their history.
If the Israelis did indeed have a cynical long term goal, it would be create intolerable living conditions in Gaza to precipitate a major historic migration from it. Perhaps by seizing a large swathe of territory adjacent to the existing Israeli-Gaza border and squeezing the population into an unviable remainder is a possibility.
This extraordinary episode will have major consequences, some of it for India from which it will have to learn solemn lessons. The ease with which poorly trained and ill equipped rag tag militants could create such mayhem is a warning to the authorities in India.
With the Arab street politically aroused, Israel’s diplomatic outreach to Arab countries is in trouble. The Saudi regime will now be too fearful of the reaction of its population to proceed with diplomatic recognition of Israel.
The impact on India is indirect and potentially consequential. The armed Israeli action against Gaza will mobilise Muslim sentiment across the world, including India. Muslims will now be more inclined to act in communal solidarity with each other. As a result, they will be less open to the kind of sociopolitical opening that was perhaps beginning to occur recently among Muslims in India. It will possibly make them vote in a more collective and sectarian way in 2024. It means the BJP will lose the modest support it was beginning to enjoy from some Muslims, especially women.
Much more potentially consequential is the demonstration of what can be done by small numbers of people emerging from an enclave that they dominate demographically . The recent Delhi riots were an echo of the phenomenon, with moderately prepared and armed militants emerging from a geographically isolated ghetto to perpetrate violence outside it. It was relatively minor but still similar in principle. Leaders of India’s Muslim community will be looking to and studying the events in Gaza for inspiration and a possible model. Of course, India did suffer a much bigger but comparable assault in J&K during 1947-48, when tribesmen entered the state to destroy, loot and abduct. They also managed to conquer territory now called PoK.
Another dramatic excursion from across the border in conjunction with urban insurrection in Indian cities cannot be ruled out. Monitoring of densely populated minority areas is advisable, with preparations to seal them in the event of a crisis and interdiction of electronic communications as well. Lists of leaders to be held or eliminated will also be unavoidable.
Prof Karnad, this is why I dislike it when you say that Pakistan isn’t worth India’s time or bother, and that India should just focus on the China threat. That’s an absurd argument to make when Pakistan and its sponsorship of terrorism poses a severe security threat to India. Here we now see you at last acknowledging the threat that Pakistan still poses. That threat will not magically go away just because we choose to hide our head in a hole, like an ostrich. We must deal with threats, and not choose to live in denial about their existence.
Manofsan@ — Inconsistent, I am not. Dealing with or countering terrorism (from Pakistan or any other place) requires a different set of capabilities — as can be seen with Doval successfully handling Pakistan-related matters or, as perhaps, evidenced in the elimination of Khalistani extremists abroad, than a military threat. Hope, I don’t need to belabour this point. True, proximal states harbouring anti-India terrorist outfits may need military solutions — but that doesn’t make these countries military threats and Pakistan certainly doesn’t pose one.
As we can see, our Khalistan enemies have higher backers willing to make parliamentary speeches in their behalf to validate them. And if you again find those to be trivial and not worth bothering about, please notice how our diplomats are being turned back from gurdwaras everywhere, how our Indian diplomatic missions are being placed under protest mob siege in numerous places, how “wanted” posters are being issued against our diplomats, etc. It seems the Khalistan problem is getting worse, not better.
An excellent analytical article;
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/why-hamas-attacked-now-and-how-it-weakens-both-israel-and-hopes-for-peace-8975064/
An excerpt;
Saudi Arabia, under the late King Abdullah, made an offer to Israel in 2002 in the name of all Arab states, which is called the Arab Peace Initiative. This offer can be the only basis for a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians and will require the creation of a Palestinian state on the lands Israel occupied in the Six-Day War of 1967. In return, Israel would be fully recognised and accepted. It is the rejection by Israel of this offer, especially by its present right-wing government with its annexationist aims over all the land, that has aggravated the situation and prevented a resolution of this conflict.
Mr. Karnad,
Israel does seem to look beyond hostages now. They are past that line. Egypt intelligence minister saying he warned Bibi only makes it worse (if true)
Me thinks China may be eyeing the Indian border now more than ever (atleast see where Israel takes this in few weeks). US will be distracted with Russia and Israel. 3 arms supports for India are out now. It would be very tempting for China to go at India if there is middleeast war.
Hopefully Indian agencies are burning midnight oil. This is scary times and very close to Winter 1962 wahem US and Russia were going at each other.
I love reading Mr. Karnad’s blog whatever he writes the opposite of it becomes true at a lightening speed.
Last year he wrote about Russia not launching any military operation against Ukraine. Russia initiated a military operation the very next day.
There was another article of him saying that some navy guy will become the next CDS of India. A “paharri babuaa” became one instead.
Now in his latest video he is singing praises of Israel and Mossad and look what Hamas did there.
Khatarnak@ — LoL. Now you may care to point out the posts where you allege all the things I am supposed to have written. But, 1) yes,I maintained from the start that Ukraine had no chance and that eventually Donbas region would be lost to Russia — both proven true. Where I was a bit off was in underestimating Ukrainiaan resistance.
2) As far as the candidature of retired CNS ADM Karambir Singh for CDS — given his background as naval helicopter pilot I did canvas for his elevation. Incidentally, he was on the short list of 2, Chauhan got it.
3) What I have long praised Israel and Mossad for is their tenacity in pursuing adversaries of the state, come what may and wherevr they might be — a quality I have always hoped RAW would acquire. You may now expect the Hamas leadership and support to be pursued with extreme prejudice.
A navy admiral would been a dream come true for Aatmanirbhar bharat. Seriously, what on earth is wrong with the army? Even the IAF has changed its ways and is going gung-ho on indigenization. Army’s recent 155mm/52 cal TGS RFI is a potential political dynamite. It’s meant to give a back door entry to Elbit’s ATHOS gun which would be rebranded as an Adani product and sold under IDDM category. If it goes through, it will make nonsense of IDDM category and basically become an albatross round the modi regime’s neck a la Bofors 2.0 and the Congress party. In any case, why procure TGS when Kalyani has top-notch MGS to offer and the production capacity to provide hundreds a year?
This is really a bummer.
Prof Karnad,
We need Pokhran-3. US/West are the main inhibitors against our N-testing (goodness knows China can’t deter us), and right now they are too distracted with other war fronts. Furthermore, if we see the 1962 precedent, it was precisely when US was distracted by Cuban Missile Crisis that China chose that moment to attack India. Therefore, we need to be proactive on building up our deterrent before receiving some ugly sucker-punch. We should not feel deterred or inhibited against doing this by Westerners who are more dependent on us than ever, while they are also distracted by multiple other war fronts. The cost to them in sanctioning us would be too great, especially at this precarious time, and the benefits for us would be very large. Pakistan would not be able to follow our N-test with their own, due to their acute economic vulnerability at this time. The current conditions are as favourable as we can hope for — we can’t wait for idealized perfect conditions — “Perfect is the Enemy of the Good.”
“Of course, the Hamas aim was to kill Israelis indiscriminately and also to take a large number of them as hostages for eventual exchange of prisoners because the only thing the Israeli state values more than its territory are its people” –
“… its territory…”? Oh really?
I do not know where I stand with the “high moral” stand taken in this article.
Here are two incisive insights by Indian experts in international political affairs throwing light on this cataclysmic war in the middle east whose fallout could have terrible repercussion on India to count with in the long run:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/10-reasons-why-indias-stance-on-gaza-is-unsustainable/
and
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/10/8/there-is-nothing-surprising-about-hamass-operation
The moral and political bankruptcy of Modi’s India is glaring in the observation by MKB as here:
” India’s consistent stance on the Palestine issue, which followed, quintessentially, the footfalls of Gandhiji who had the prescience and vision to oppose the creation of Israel on Palestinian homelands in the cruel manner in which the Western powers imposed that geopolitical construct on West Asia”
and here:
” India’s patented mantra that ‘this is not an era of wars’ obliges it to mark distance from Netanyahu”.
The other link is to Somdeep Sen needs to be taken seriously who is an Associate Professor of International Development Studies at Roskilde University in Denmark.
Bhadrakumar is an old school IFS who reflects the institutionalised reverence of MEA for MK Gandhi. But my researches into “Gandhiji’s” shenanigans (in the second chapter of my ‘Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security’ book showed, the “Mahatma” to be a political fraudster and a British comprador. He was a flim-flam man through and through, and the only reason Modi doesn’t disavow him is, I suspect, because he is a fellow-Gujarati!
On Israel’s territory, etc — there’s just too much to consider, and I don’t care to do a half-cocked job of it here.
Re: this Sen — his contention is bit of a non sequiter!
Bhadra kumar is an old CCP lapdog. Not worth discussing him in detail. The Israel-palestine conflict is of little significance to us.
Apologies for the various typos in my previous comment. it was an impassioned outburst. Modi government has to fix the army’s broken procurement system at any cost. The best way of instilling terror in these guys is to order NIA/ED inquires into all officers at the procurement directorate and all 2-3 star officers in general. Major arrests must be made. Nothing would please me more than seeing the guys involved in the Arjun tank trials behind bars. We can easily have the world’s best artillery corps furnished by kalyani, only if the army places the necessary orders
The reality is the existing indisputable UN resolution 242 that called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all the territories occupied in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war!
I am not a blind follower of Gandhiji, but the vast majority of Indians revere him. Modiji will lose his power hold in Delhi if he dares not to bow down to Gandhi’s statue in the precinct of the Parliament House in Delhi – Gujrati clan is irrelevant in the context.
In my view India is too great and vast as a nation state to compromise her fundamental principles in the international world and there is no need. Unfortunately, run of the mill Indian citizens do not realize that and are prone to take nonsense from her external enemies as is happening now with Khalistan.
MKB is right here when he points out that all previous political masters of India (Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rao …) have never discarded the Palestinians in their struggle for survival in their land of birth. Regrettable that India has deviated from that path for gaining support against Khalistani terrorism. It is absurd to relate to the war in the Gaza strip.
Professor Sen has recorded irrefutable ground reality in Gaza in the above link. I fail to see how it could be disputed.
Sankar@ — GOI has not deviated from the path of good relations with the Palestinian Authority (originally manned by the al-Fatah cadre of Yasser Arafat), and still sends monies its way. Just that India’s position is now more balanced with diplomatic ties to Israel with whom, in any case, we have greater cultural and other affinity. It is manifest irrelevance to bring in that charlatan — ‘Gandhiji’, morality and all that mess into the discussion at hand, or forget GOI’s bending over to accommodate Arab interests in the first three and half decades while having very intimate relations with Tel Aviv under cover, leading to the oft-spoken line spoken by Ariel Sharon and repeated by Benjamin Netanyahu — that India treated Israel like “a mistress , not wife”. And no, Khalistan was definitely not even a tertiary reason for a change of mind in Delhi.
Sankar@ – So which madrassa did you graduate from ?
@Sankar, ‘obliges it to mark distance from Netanyahu’… what are you smoking? Foreign policy is not based on slogans. The slogans are meant for something else! You should know that!
Please direct your query to “Vishwaguru” who is lecturing all and sundry, even the Russian President Putin, that this is not the era of war, but when it concerns Israel, he makes a somersault and extends full support to wage war against the Palestinians!
I am looking forward to his answer.
@Sankar, that’s what I’m saying. You pay too much attention to these anodyne statements. Look at what India does. It’s a very realist policy. All these statements are meant for public consumption. You should know that by now! The era of war statement was meant to pacify the west. Vishwaguru, Vasudaiva kutumbakam, Vishwamitra… these are just words.
The only portion which makes some sense in Bhadrakumar’s article is the following one;
“Modi government might as well say goodbye to the grand idea of building an Indo-Arab economic corridor to Europe in a foreseeable future. That means, Haifa Port, which was acquired by the Adani Group in a “strategic purchase” at a reported cost of $1.13 billion with Netanyahu’s blessing, will be underperforming”
“but the vast majority of Indians revere him” really 🧐
Only those Indians who lack logical reasoning revere Gandhi. He was a British agent and a class 1 crook. To top it all he was a paedophile and a sexual maniac.
The only reason Modi pretends to respect Gandhi is because Gandhi was a fellow Gujarati like the other one Patel, who twice banned RSS during his tenure as the Home Minister of India yet, Modi installed his statue because of Patel also being a Gujarati.
@BharatKarnad Do you believe Hamas’s reason for its Operation Al Aqsa Flood – desecration of the Al Aqsa Mosque, Crimes of Occupation and Mistreatment of Prisoners? Al Jazeera showed this in its ticker.
Or do you think that a Benjamin Netanyahu government facing judicial reform protests was considered as a weak Israeli government by Hamas and that’s why it’s Operation Al Aqsa Flood?
The main reason for Aqsa-flood, as I mention in my post, was to torpedo the coming Saudi-Israel deal. Whar you mention are secondary reasons.
Professor, from what I’m learning, Chinese rocket technology was being supplied through Iran, Syria and Turkey using Qatari and Iranian funding. There maybe Russian involvement, but it’s not clear. Arms meant for Ukraine have also gone into Gaza. The parties that gain from Hamas action are Iran, Russia and China. So it’s likely to be seen as such and therefore your conclusion that the Israeli Arab rapproachment will be a casualty is premature.
Secondly, while terror groups will be emboldened in Pakistan, such coordinated funding of terror and equipment is not yet a reality. Russia and to an extant Iran are not against India. Turkey and Qatar can play games against India, but Indian issues in Kashmir may not be as hot button as those in West Asia. However, China will have an interest in proxy war in Pakistan against India. But India has some leverage against the Chinese in Afghanistan using ETIM and the Northern Alliance for this purpose. Plus Afghanistan and Pakistan are at loggerheads right now on the Durand line. Pakistan mein mamla dilchasp hai, lekin it’s not entirely against India.
Professor,
https://www.deccanherald.com/india/pathankot-attack-mastermind-shahid-latif-killed-in-pakistan-mosque-2721719
This is what is happening in Pakistan! Right now it seems like advantage India. Also, if Pakistan attempts anything like what Hamas did, it will break apart. It’s too big to defend with a weak military.
Prof Karnad, focus on neutralizing external threats takes away from securing military assets from sneak drone attacks.. jammers, high density tent top nettings etc should be a focus.. given the success in israel and ukraine, only a matter of time before they are used elsewhere
By email: From Dr V Siddhartha, former Science adviser to Defence Minister
Wed, 11 Oct at 3:18 pm
… all with Karnad — in all his forms and manifestations!
Email from Lt Gen Arun Sahni (Retd) former GOC-in-C, South Western Command
Wed, 11 Oct at 2:38 pm
As always a delight to read and hear your viewpoint.
Indeed the event requires a lot of introspection at many quarters.
Arun Sahni
China is already rejoicing following the Israel-Hamas latest conflict;
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1299672.shtml
“No significant breakthrough was made at the latest meeting, The Times of India reported on Thursday, citing an anonymous source.
India raised demands including the disengagement of Chinese troops to locations asked for by India, which are unacceptable to China, and it was India that had stirred up the troubles in the first place, Zhao said.”
Excerpts from the following;
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1299739.shtml
More than 3 years have passed since this deadly border clash in 2020. Even after 20 rounds of meetings there is no resolution.
What’s the point of holding these meaningless meetings?
Which is why I have urged GOI for over two decades now to hold in abeyance all border negotiations with China and to revive it only if Beijing provides definite evidence of forward progress.
Sir, where do you see this war heading towards?is there a posibility of bombing Iran?
Gaza is difficult for the Israeli forces because it is densely packed and populated and will be a nightmare location to fight the Hamas in. It’ll be interesting to see what tactics Israel follows. There’s Israeli talk of bombing Iran but the US won’t allow it, fearing Russia and China will get in on Tehran’s side and it will become a wider conflagration.
Professor,
According to some Indian Generals, it’s more likely that Iran would be used as a Chinese proxy, just like Hamas has been used as a Russian and Chinese proxy. So while the U.S. may not want it, China may have other plans. The Ukraine war has been a disaster for the U.S., and things may spin out of control. These are truly dangerous times.
“Islamic military successes have been so few and far between”
With due respect, Islamic militaries have had more successes than the hindu military. Except for wars with Pakistan, the hindu military did get its ass whipped by the Chinese. No?
The Afghans (Muslims, if you did not know) did show how to fight mighty armies of the Soviets and the Americans.
Hindu military achievements over the past millennium I have argued — look up Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security, are an oxymoron! What successes Hindus have registered are as individuals and mostly in subaltern capacity in Lodi, Mughal, and British dispensations.
Mister@ — Looks like some madrassa chaap got triggered !! Lol
Professor,
More and more it seems like this Hamas action is a Chinese proxy act to keep the U.S. distracted. And taking a leaf from this, India should start its own proxy action in our friendly neighbour across the Radcliffe line, instead of waiting for similar action as Hamas’ from the many friends across the line. Open up another front for the U.S. so that India can achieve its strategic objectives and be proactive instead of being reactive. And give a clear message to the five eyes, that India can also play the proxy game. It’s seems like a good time to do this.
@Amit- The way China is elated at this episode resulting in new India/U.S. proposed trade route (India-U.A.E-Israel-Europe) being a non starter (refer to article in Global Times) it appears that the Chinese establishment definitely has a role in it.
@Lunghaad, certainly seems so! But this should be expected. Russia and China will seek to put the U.S. down given what the US has done in Ukraine – in the real world no strategic mistake goes unpunished. The dumbos in the US foreign policy establishment now have to bear the consequences of their actions.
Email from Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia (Retd) , former DG, Military Operations
Fri, 13 Oct at 8:25 am
Thanks. Interesting as always
Regards
Vinod Bhatia
Email from Commodore Anil Jai Singh (Retd)
Professor,
As always, an incisive analysis, laying bare the facts. Thank you.
Best regards
AJ
@Prof Karnad
How far Iran really is at crossing the nuclear threshold?
That has implications for continued India’s nuclear testing. Because if India did, then what would follow is a cascade of testing from Pak, Iran and possibly Saudis in the future – Not a situation that anyone would want.
Also how likely is US to resume nuclear testing as Putin seems to be indicating?
Itanium@ — According to Israeli govt — best informed on the subject, Tehran is the proverbial “screw driver’s turn awa” from the Bomb.
Resumption of any testing should immediately trigger openended testing by us. Hope the Modi regime has instructed BARC to be ready and prepared.
Prof Karnad@
Thanks for the clarification.
On US – They probably will not test again. They are very very smart – Having accrued all the physics data that one can ever need the only meaningful goal for them would be to prevent others from gaining the same expertise. This is probably true with China and Russia too. (France I tend to dismiss as a minor sidekick and UK a complete american poodle incapable of doing anything meaningful).
Perhaps one more question – how is the current Indian dispensation towards CTBT and further testing? Are they the same old R Chidambaram disciples still preaching thermo-nuclear abstinence or do they have any amount of “nuclear sex drive” in them for further testing?
[The fear of course always being that the village idiots in GOI bureaucracy will somehow succumb to the cunning designs of NPT/CTBT regime.]
As I have said in a post not too long ago, R Chidambaram is the bane of the N-programme, an incubus infecting BARC where he is installed as the ‘Bhabha Chair’ and continues to be the dampener on the issue of resumed testing. Given how much he has hurt the national interest, it is surprising the Modi govt did not abruptly revoke his classification status and banished him to the nether regions of Tamil Nadu or where ever he hails from.
Professor,
You seem to have a visceral dislike for the Subrahmanyams based on whatever interactions you had with the father. However, reality does not bear out your negative assessments so far in the son. You criticised the son for pushing fa18s, and have not missed a chance to castigate him. Yet, it is plain to anyone that he is actually one of India’s best foreign ministers. Such baseless criticism diminishes your persona more – so best to refrain from making such assessments.
Regarding India’s nuclear stockpile – from what I’ve read (I don’t take any source for granted including you), India will increase its nuclear stockpile as China increases its own. There is talk that Pakistan will also match this, but I can’t imagine how with its economic mess. India is also improving its delivery accuracy with better missiles and building a credible second strike capability. There is the question of thermonuclear weapons – I am sure India will do the needful, but timing is key. The act should not harm India more than it helps. That time seems to be coming with several global hotspots developing and the U.S. itself talking about resuming testing. The START treaty also expires in 2026 and there is no talk of extending it.
So let’s be real Professor. No point getting carried away by past animosities!
Amit@ — Have no “animosities” against Jaishankar. But do feel strongly for the national interest being undermined, because decisions made today have effects 10-20 years later. By thee way, opposed KS’ line of canoodling with the US he was propagating from Narasimha Rao’s days that got reflected in the inequitous N-deal that Jaishankar, as Joint Secretary (Americas) cut with the George W Bush Admin. These are facts. For more details on this entire mess of issues — read my books! (Then again, who reads books any more?)
Professor,
I’m sure you have all the facts right and mistakes were made in the past. But the question is whether India’s nuclear program will develop numbers, improve quality and test TN weapons as the threat situation evolves. All indicators seem to say yes.
According to reports I’ve read, India could develop up to 500 NW if China goes to 1500. The CEP of delivery systems is improving and India will add four more SSBNs with higher and longer payload capacity. no word on TN weapons, but I’m sure that can happen if the U.S. tests or Russia/China do something. You recently also said the tunnels in Ladakh are being nuclearized.
Mao said if a leader gets 70% of his decisions right, he can be considered great. I can see more right than wrong decisions now than 15 years back. That’s what matters. Mistakes from he past are being corrected. Rapidly!
You may have more reliable info. But my soundings suggest that virtually nothing’s happening on the nuclear weapons front. Incidentally, assuming you are right about the 500 NWs figure — it is near enough to the force strength of 475 NWs I had recommended in 2002 (in the last chapter of my book — Nulear Weapons and Indian Security)! GOI Dair se ayee, par durust ayee!
Curious, Amit@ — but what reports are you referring to?
Prof Karnad@
I get that Chidambaram is the biggest culprit of India’s “nuclear rickets”. I guess Anil Kakodkar is no better either. Even DRDO now seem to sing to BARC’s tunes.
But I would’ve hoped that Modi/Doval/Jaishankar would’ve breathed some realism into the situation and installed a more hard headed realist to guide the nuclear matters?
Itanium@ — No, Jaishanker, unfortunately, is too much his daddy’s son, and K Subrahmanyam coupled with Chidambram (KS’ cousin) were in the lead selling the minimum deterrence-please the Yanks by disavowing testing line (for the civilian N-deal) to GOI. Indeed, if anything EAM, as I have written, has all along been fulfilling KS’s agenda.
Prof Karnad@ I think in the end India will have to conduct another series of tests sooner than later.
This is because India is really squeezed from two sides. First coming in from China which constantly tries to match US – and the US with their own nuclear diffidence trying to match Russians.
The other side of pressure coming in from Pak which rightly considers India an existential threat that with their own pursuits of Tactical and higher yielding weapons necessitate India to reciprocate with full spectrum nuclear weaponry including the TN weapons.
Its a pretty dire situation to be in tbh. Donno when and where the equilibrium will come to be.
Professor, it’s general media news reports. Nothing insider as I don’t have access to that kind of info. However, india’s SIPRI reported numbers are 174 as of 2022. With four additional S4 class SSBNs, India’s nuclear arsenal should go up by 8×4 to 24×4 = 32 to 96.
@Amit I have read articles that say it is as high as 1000. A recent Pak assessment put it at 2000! Obviously very speculative but the SIPRI seem to give out very low numbers year after year. I tend to believe the numbers are way way more than what SIPRI puts out.
Actualy, the most reliable N-force strength numbers are featured in ‘Nuclear Notebook’ published annually (for different countries) by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
@Prof Karnad
Thanks for that clarification. If the notebook is correct then at 160 warheads, India is woefully Inadequate.
And its little difficult to believe the other numbers stated. In 2022 notebook the yield for A345s is capped at 10-45kt. If you take a simple Yield to Mass log plot from Wikipedia a 100kg head should yield 100kt.
But A345s have 1.5 ton stated capacity. Going by the same plot A 1Ton head will yield close to 1MTon yield. So if the notebook is correct about max 45kt, then the Indian design must be very poorly designed and extremely inefficient.
Whether weapon design deficiencies remain, even after compuerised simulation rejigging, can be known only if open-ended testing is resumed — which’s the point I have been making, apparently futilely, since the 1998 Shakti tests.
Professor,
In Ashley Tellis latest ebook on the nuclear balance in South Asia, he mentions that India has enough plutonium to add 105-195 fission bombs and a slightly fewer number of fusion bombs. However, the assumption is that only Dhruv in BARC is used for Weapons grade Plutonium production.
Out of the 23 nuclear reactors India has, 8 are outside international inspections (apparently these are not being used to develop Weapons Grade Plutonium).
Given that India has increased its stockpile to 164-160 (SIPRI says 164, not 174) from 90-100 a few years back, don’t you think India has the capacity to further increase its nuclear weapons stockpile substantially? And given that it has increased its stockpile as China and Pakistan have done the same, that it will continue to do so in the future?
Amit@ — the problem has never been the capacity, nor the size of used fuel stockpile. as I have argued in all my books. It is the political will to first test the designs and then to convert them to fusion weapons. Otherwise, India will be stuck a mess of unreliable weapons lacking credibility. And without weapon credibility, there’s no real deterrence parity with China.
@Prof Karnad.
What you said is right only for TN device. Mr. K Santhanam has himself stated that fission “worked like a song”. So this miniature working fission device should be able to scale up.
Link: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/santhanam-repeats-hydrogen-bomb-was-failure-401936
So in the TN device there must have been a small minor flaw that can be readily rectified.
And one of your users mentioned only BARC is used to source the nuclear materials. But what about the HEU refinement (Centrifuge farms) in Rattehalli Karnataka? Any comments on that? I know probably nobody knows anything about that but I am speculating the output from those centrifuges must at least partly contribute to the weapons program?
Itanium@ — There’s no way to know how small or big the flaw was in the original design and, in any case, computer-aided rectification is not reliable at all esp w/o a large bank of the boosted fission/fusion data, which we don’t haveand nobody will give it to us.
@Itanium, according to Ashley Tellis’ ebook, the HEU from India’s reactors is only for its SSBN program. Not for nuclear weapons. But my guess is that all this can change if China massively increases its stockpiles and / or the U.S. resumes testing. I think 2026 will be an important year as the nuclear control treaty with Russia is coming to an end then.
I’m not into if this, if that….etc
@Prof. Karnad If you are asserting what you just said about TN device, then absolutely! No questions asked, no voices raised. It was a fizzle and needs more testing to validate it.
But once cannot extend that argument to fission devices that can be scaled up! And scaling is indeed the law of nature.
@Amit- “The dumbos in the US foreign policy establishment now have to bear the consequences of their actions.”
You are wrong here. Yankee establishment doesn’t care about winning or losing wars. Their primary focus is on initiating conflicts all around the globe and then keep stoking the fire by supplying weapons to all sides.
Therefore every conflict around the world suits their agenda. Forget the world look at the gun violence within US itself.
@ Lunghaad, well, there are many realists in the US who call the U.S. foreign policy establishment quite dumb. These are not my words. They call it the ‘blob’, quite impervious to any idea outside their current thinking. Maybe their thinking will change, but I’m afraid the Ukraine war is quite a big mistake, which is hard to recover from.
There is talk now of the U.S. being able to take on Russia and China together. In the 2018 strategy document, it was only China with Iran as a possible second front. The U.S. does not have the capacity to take on Russia, China, and Iran together. The current policy makers have brought it to this state.
My take is that US power will wane rapidly due to its follies. Gone are the days when it went gallivanting going in and out of wars without any consequences.
@Amit- According to media reports, the big five military-industrial complex giants – Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman – gained the most from conflicts.
They routinely split more than $150 billion in Pentagon contracts annually, said an article published by The Nation in May.
In the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, the big five giants not only sold large amounts of military equipment to Ukraine, but also used the opportunity to market their products to other European countries. They also obtained more contracts and funds from the US government.
USA geographical location is such that none of China, Iran and Russia will ever have a direct conflict with USA.
The Yankee establishment is happily supplying weapons to Ukraine since last year. It has already started sending weapons to Israel.
The power or let’s call it the sadistic trait of US won’t wane. It’s just that it’s facing huge competition nowadays from Russia and China.
@ Lunghaad, no doubt the military industrial complex gains in the US. And the reason the US does this is because the ‘blob’ still thinks it’s a unipolar or a ‘modified’ unipolar world. They think that they can take on Russia, Iran and China all together. However, this is a big mistake.
While no one can predict final outcomes in war, one can predict likely outcomes. Given the state of the US arms industry and the loss of power since the Ukraine war (after all India and many other countries have stood up to the U.S.), it is likely that U.S. power will further erode if it has to fight Iran.
China and Russia will bleed the U.S. through proxies and play the same game that the US is playing on them. US companies earning income from war is a drop compared to the U.S. economy.
More important are the stakes involved and how the U.S. could be forced to fight when it doesn’t, leading to further loss of power (they could lose in Ukraine for example); unless of course there is a full fledged global war, the outcome of which no one can predict (war games not withstanding).
Indian traders are seeking alternative methods of settlement, Russian sellers have held out for yuan.
Excerpts from the following;
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1300014.shtml
Putin is in China on a visit. It seems Russia-India relations are getting strained.
I read your books Prof Karnad. Although when I discuss it with my friends they say I am devoid of any morals. 🙂
Bharat Ji….So it begins….
https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-conducts-nuclear-test-nevada-hours-russian-move-revoke-global-nuclear-test-ban
I think BHARAT will soon have no other choice than to resume testing.
I think you wanted this right ?
Right!
Prof Bharat Karnad – Perhaps we are entering THE MOST IMPORTANT strategic phase of our times with US resuming nuclear testing.
We eagerly look forward to your next article on this subject matter – please dont hold anything back!
A very interesting development;
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1300393.shtml
What’s your take Mr. Karnad?
Nothing new. Bhutan has been trying to leverage more from India by flashing the threat of closeness to China.
As per my sources these retired Ex-Indian navy personnel were covertly working for the Israeli intelligence Mossad.
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/qatar-death-penalty-indian-navy-personnel-9000611/
It is reported that the paragliding training to Hamas was imparted by Pakistan and practiced within its territory.