[Justin Trudeau seeking Sikh votes]
A Sept 23 Washington Post story (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/23/targeted-killing-canada-india-nijjar/) regarding the killing in Canada of the Khalistani terrorist Harmeet Singh Nijjar quotes a “former senior U.S. intelligence official” as saying “This is Modi looking at the world and saying to himself, ‘The United States conducts targeted killings outside of war zones. The Israelis do it. The Saudis do it. The Russians do it. Why not us?’ And none of the [nations] we just mentioned pay much of a price.”
The above-quoted American intel officer was honest. But India’s case for extra-judical, extra-territorial killing of Nijjar, the terrorist — assuming it is at all true — is far beefier than the instance of an Indian PM ordering the elimination of an outlaw. If Indian government is proven to have a hand, then it is in good company because India will merely have emulated these other countries, with the United States in the lead, who quite routinely bump off not only terrorists in their safe havens — think Osama bin Laden — but foreign individuals they deem a threat or an obstacle to achieving their foreign policy goals. Recall in this respect the cold-blooded assassination of Dr Homi J Bhabha because Washington apprehended he was getting India the A-bomb. A timed explosive placed in the cargo hold of the Air India Mumbai-Geneva flight AI 101 carrying Bhabha blew up in January 1966 on the slopes of Mount Blanc.
An US Central Intelligence Agency operative, Robert Crowley, who later headed clandestine ops for the agency confessed to carrying out this “kill” that along with Bhabha took the lives of hundreds of innocent passengers. But the Indian government made no fuss about this act of assassination-sabotage, nor was anyone held responsible, even though America’s hand in the death of their chief has ever since been the talk in Trombay circles. It became a precedent-setter for other countries. Israel, for instance, has regularly done away by various means numerous Iraqi and Iranian nuclear scientists.
Assassination as a diplomatic tool is of ancient origin and in the policy toolkit of most leading countries. “Holier than thou” states, such as Nehruvian India, refrained from deploying it, and were victimised. Things may have changed in the Modi era, by how much is not clear. There is still institutional reluctance to go after terrorists who do the nation serious harm while living abroad.
The good thing is not only has New Delhi not been apologetic about its stance on the Nijjar issue, it has taken the offensive in painting Canada as a facilitator of terrorism, which it is, in that it indiscriminately lets in Khalistani terrorists-criminals-gangsters and compounds the problem for everybody by letting them openly pursue terrorist aims of reviving an extinguished secessionist movement in Punjab from their refuge in Canada, UK and the US.
The Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar is in the US for the next 8-odd days. He will hopefully take the natural step of declaring Canada an epicentre of international terrorism. If Pakistan harbouring a variety of Islamic extremists has been hauled up in the UN, FATF, etc why should Canada get a free pass just because it justifies terrorism promoted in Indian Punjab by Khalistanis it has welcomed as something protected by free speech? India has all the evidence it needs for crucifying Ottawa’s complicity as aider and facilitator of terrorism.
How fertile a ground is Canada for these Khalistani terrorists? Whole swaths of Canadian territory are today overrun by these militant Sikhs — as has been reported in the Canadian Press and media — engaged in illegal enterprises from running drug and crime syndicates, suspicious nightclubs, to murdering each other for any of a host of reasons — which is the likely cause of Nijjar’s mafia style execution, for the control of the lucrative gurdwara businesses dotting the Canadian landscape on that country’s eastern and western seaboards.
As regards the Canadian government’s complicity: How about Nijjar being allowed entry into Canada on a passport saying ‘Ravi Sharma’ and, who instead of being returned by the first available flight, was offered refugee status by the Canadian immigration authorities obviously under Ottawa’s instruction to admit into the country any and all Sikhs claiming political persecution irrespective of their criminal/terrorist background, or even a red alert Interpol notice as was the case with Nijjar. If Canada is politically unwilling to act on an Interpol red alert because the Liberal Party ruling with a slim majority can ill aford to upset its coalition partner — the Khalistan-leaning New Democratic Party of Jugmeet Singh, can it be relied on to respect any other international law? In the event, how is Canada different than, say, Pakistan, where too state agencies provide anti-India Islamic terrorists succour, residence, and legal and physical protection?
Nijjar was no workaday plumber peacefully propagating the Khalistan cause on weekends at his gurdwara as Ottawa would like the world to believe, but the head of the dreaded Khalistan Tiger Force committing atrocities, and charged with several murders and bombing of a cinema house in Punjab — information long ago transmitted to the Canadian government. Col. Amarinder Singh, then chief minister of Punjab reveals he gave a list of 16 Canada-based Khalistani terrorists to Justin Trudeau when he visited India in 2018, which fetched only Canadian inaction.
It is important in terms of what I flagged in the previous post about the US and the West using Khalistan as leverage against India that, it is now reported by New York Times, Trudeau based his allegation of India’s role in Nijjar’s death on signals intelligence onpassed by the US. So the Biden Administration is here playing a bit of double game — encouraging Ottawa to stick with its accusatory stance while informing Delhi that India enjoys no “exemption” from whatever punitive action Washington may decide on at an opportune time when the Modi regime does not jump when the White House asks it to.
Then again there are different yardsticks to gauge violation of law. If an assassination is carried out by the US, UK, Australia, it presumably is okay; not so much if it is done by other countries. The Washington Post story referred earlier, picked up this point. “U.S. officials have long argued”, it notes, ” that these and other operations bear little resemblance to the actions of states like Russia, noting that U.S. operations involve extensive legal review, assessments of an imminent threat and determinations that a capture or arrest of the suspect in question are not possible.” These rationales, the story concludes, “often ring hollow overseas.” And for good reason because the US and the West fail to acknowledge that other countries who may decide on assassinating a terrorist, say, may do so after they have exhausted all the available legal remedies and their patience has run out, and that such extra-judicial kills are not ordered for fun, or for the heck of it but because the host nation that is supposed to apprehend the terrorist, does not. The dossier given Ottawa was full of evidence to nail Nijjar, and yet the Trudeau regime deliberately did nothing. And now it is squawking because Nijjar got his just deserts, and the US, the most brazen perpetrator of extra-territorial mayhem, is harrumphing about it?
Risbly, Trudeau in New York brought up rules-based order. “We’re not looking to provoke or cause problems” he explained. “We’re standing up for the rules-based order.” So, India is expected to follow the rules while Canada is free to ignore them? This is the attitude that has spurred Delhi’s contempt for Canada, which Modi tried hard not to show on his face but failed, when he perfunctorily shook hands with Trudeau at the G20 summit.
Still, however Nijjar was got rid off, it will send a salutary message to other would be Khalistani terrorists that there’s nowhere to hide. Combined with the measures to expropriate their properties in Punjab, it should have the desired chilling impact. Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, the so-called “General Counsel” of the Sikhs for Justice — a thinly veiled peaceful front for the terrorist Khalistan movement, for instance, is the first one to thus lose his properties. He is supposed to be a “sleeping” partner in several commercial enterprises, which also should be on the radar of the NSA Court.
It will help to snuff out the Khalistan issue for good if combined with property expropriation, Artificial Intelligence and face-recognition technologies are used, as has been suggested by many, to identify Sikhs in Canada indulging in violent protests targeting Indian diplomats, consular offices and the High Commission in Ottawa, and to revoke their PIO (persons of Indian origin) card and permanently ban their entry into India. These moves should be well publicised by Indian diplomats in Canada and the effect of all these actions is bound to deflate the publicity-seeking Khalistanis, and thin out the crowds supporting their cause. And finally, the entry of Sikh Canadians into Punjab during state or general elections should also be prohibited because, if the previous elections are a guide, they are the source of much violence and corruption, as they used strongarm methods to try and get elected their slate of sympathizers, which is something India cannot afford to see happen.
But officially condoned or sponsored assasination is a sovereign imperative of a state to protect itself. Like the US, India too needs a law to legitimize such kill operations, a law that the Indian government then makes the world aware of both as a deterrent and by way of providing legal cover and protection to RAW agents and their affiliates. It is precisely the absence of such a law that led to KPS Gill’s special Punjab Police commando who stifled the Khalistan movement in Punjab with exemplary ruthlessness being targeted by Human Rights advocates and social do-gooders in the post-insurrection phase that led to many among these anti-Khalistan fighters facing the ignominy of prison sentences committing suicide — a denouement Gill to the very last never forgave the Indian government for.
So, a priority is for the Modi Government to draft and pass such a law legalizing the dispatching of terrorists with “extreme prejudice”. It can be subsumed under the “Self defence” Chapter VII, Article 51 of the UN Charter. So that extra-judicial and extra-territorial punishments carried out to quell terrorism and in the furtherance of state objectives are openly and legally permissible. China has passed its sovereignty law that legitimates Beijing’s decisions, policies and practices. India needs such a law to provide the legal undergirding to shrug off the pressure from the overly legalistic US government.
[After first uploading this post, someone sent me a notice about a 2004 book referencing Canada’s emergence as spawner of international terror that makes the point I have been making about Canada as epicentre of international terrorism: The book is by Stephen Bell — ‘Cold Terror: How Canada Nurtures and Exports Terrorism Around the World’ (John Wiley & Sons Canada Ltd., 2004, 2007)]
Security Wise 
@BharatKarnad The idea of a law is good, but, isn’t it better to ignore the US and Canada and continue killing all anti-India elements in Canada and around the world? We don’t need to know from the US and others who pontificate as to how we should protect Indian interests and citizens.
True. But the Modi govt is inclined to work with Washington, whence the need for the law, which will also provide the White House with legal cover against the Progressive crowd in the Democratic Party, to wit, that Delhi is only acting per its own legislated law, etc. This in turn will reduce the pressure on Delhi/
That was a run-on sentence. You need to break that one up.
@BharatKarnad When Mirza Dilshad Beg was killed in Nepal, it was said that R&AW had got him killed by using the Chota Rajam gang. Could R&AW have done a similar thing with regard to Nijjar?
Yes, that’s what’s claimed for RAW by many who point to exploiting smuggler/criminal gangs to eliminate troublemakers w/o dirtying their own hands.. Remote kills!
@BharatKarnad Why the aversion to getting their hands dirty? Isn’t it better for everyone including R&AW to do their work on their own, instead of having someone else do it?
I will be ashamed if Indian agencies were not behind this killing. It’s high time that India retaliates. We have enough resources, including money, manpower, gangs nexus, etc., which can be deployed to conduct such activities quite frequently and make it look like a gang war or an accident.
And as for the Modi government, it looks like they have finally developed a strong spine.
We need more aggression.
One more thing I wanted you to discuss about Mr. @BharatKarnard is that, in a few months, Ajit Doval will complete his 10-year long term as NSA, thus retiring from his career undoubtfully as one of the most powerful persons in India. There are, for sure, legends about his work as an intelligence officer, but not much is known about what he has been able to achieve as NSA in the past 9 years other than removing 370 & 35A.
What do you think?
Media doesn’t talk about it, and neither does the opposition, but he is 78. Is he even fit for the JOB this important?!
Look, Ajit Doval is on his game. Let him be.
Email from Dr V Siddhartha, ex-science adviser to defence minister
V Siddhartha
To:
bharat karnad
Sun, 24 Sept at 7:36 pm
AND:
Canvass a Security Council Resolution, under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which Resolution will require UN members to bring into applicability in their respective national jurisdictions, law(s) prohibiting non-state actors operating from within their jurisdictions from advocating, agitating, campaigning-for, supporting, directly or indirectly, the dismemberment, break-up, or redrawing of the internal borders of any member of the United Nations not in a state of war, unless such option, as may be applicable to that other member, is contained in any other UNSC Resolution, or multilateral or bilateral treaty or instrument which has the force of international law recognised by the UNSC or the ICJ.”
See, for guidance examples: UNSCRs 1267, 1373, 1540 and their subsequents.
——————–
VS
I think India has been successfully deterred from further interfering in Canadian or Khalistani affairs abroad.
A population with a sub saharan per capita GDP & 3/4 of the population reliant on government grains can’t be expeditionary.
95% of Sikhs are proud of being Indian & this number probably isn’t much lower in Canada. Sikhs view India as their project & one they can dismantle or expand at their leisure, with the Guru’s blessing!
I scarcely think there’s an Indian nationalist who disagrees with this assessment!
ਅਕਾਲ
Professor,
Some excellent ideas on how to curb the menace of terrorism and the insidious role of western nations in it, to use as leverage against India. I think the law idea you propose would be a good thing to have.
However, I think the likely fact that India carried out these targeted killings in the past 6-12 months in Pakistan and a Canada, is a signal to governments there that India will get its justice when foreign governments don’t act. It’s a power play that has been set in motion.
The recent foreign ministers meeting at the UN showed that Blinken had uncomfortable body language, while Mr. Jaishankar was the most confident of he lot. The comfort level with Penny Wong from Australia was the highest, and with Japan, it was so so. The body language indicator shows India being confident about its decisions and the U.S., unable to figure out how to deal with India. At least that’s the sense I got.
With the U.S. investing in Indian MRO facilities and supporting India in its domestic defence capabilities, it won’t be long before India has significant leverage and can hold the U.S. by its b….s! In my assessment, the U.S. has major military gaps and can’t really contain China on its own. India should use this leverage every time the U.S. acts awry. And I think India has started to do this already, with another assassination attributed to gang violence in the past couple of days and the NIA publishing its list of US Khalistani activists that it intends to go after.
Like you say targeted terrorist killings are par for the course. India is a past master at this – Chanakya Niti is considered to be hyper realist even by the likes of Kissinger. And that’s what India must implement. And knock the likes of Trudeau of their liberal high horses (which btw, I think India will pursue now – Modi does not forgive detractors – that seems to be his personality).
Amit,
What is good for the goose should also be good for the Gander. India too have been accused of shielding potential terrorists like Swami Asimanand and Pragya Singh who is reported to have perpetrated terrorist attacks such as the Samjhota express blasts. What if the Western intelligence agencies decide to teach us a lesson by assassinating them on Indian soil ?
Yes, powerful countries do this kind of stuff. If a weak country does it, there will be consequences – but a weak country like Pakistan still does this, on another weak country like Canada. Reality is different than what is projected out there (moral, ethical behaviour etc.). In international relations, might is right. That’s the law. This is because there is no such thing as absolute justice. What one thinks as just, May not be considered just elsewhere.
@BharatKarnad When the late Rajiv Gandhi was the Prime Minister of India, R&AW formed Counter Intelligence Team-X [CIT-X] to deal with Khalistani terrorism. Do you think, Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister of India has resurrected it or ordered something on similar lines to deal with Khalistani terrorism now?
Professor,
Looks like Russia seems to have problems of its own with liberal Canada.
https://www.rt.com/russia/583500-russia-canada-nazi-praise-explanation/
The U.S. Democrats and the Canadians, seem to be taking the world in new directions. Of course anything in the RT is considered propaganda by the west. However, I’ve seen more propaganda on CNN and Fox than in RT (at least that’s what I can surmise after having closely followed all three sources for 7+ years).
MKB has given an ominous insight in this Khalistani drama
“Nijjar affair poses an existential dilemma:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/nijjar-affair-poses-an-existential-dilemma/
which is radically different from what is presented here, and I would rather go along with MKB.
Canada (and Trudeau) is incidental, it is the “big brother” calling the shots behind the curtain. Jaishankar has made a somersault and on the rebound has invited POTUS to be India’s guest in the next Republic Day parade – what a spineless display. Khalistanis could not exist in the vacuum – they are sustained by the western intelligence agencies as their agents. All the “five” eyes are going to toe the line, but I am not sure how far Rishi will go along. Anyway, it will be a long-drawn struggle for India to keep her head high in the international world.
Read this as a counter to MKB…
https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-66885924
But MKB is right that the U.S. is behind this.
I do not find the BBC made any counter to MKB. First, I do not interpret BBC here as making much sense in the present political climate of the Khalistani movement. What BBC has done “right” is to expose Trudeau’s weakness. The question arises then, who is pulling the string behind the scenes for Trudeau to come out like that? The only pointer could be the “big brother”, and that is what MKB has been driving in his commentary. In other words, there is indirect support for MKB’s stand.
This is going to be a long-drawn saga which India has to face up internationally. Modi & Co do not have the gumption to take head on the big brother like India Gandhi did in 1971 which did pay great dividends for India. I still hold the view that in the final count Rishi will save the day for India and he is in the pivotal position if the crunch time comes soon.
Yes, the US is definitely behind the intelligence sharing. But the way I look at this incident is that India has given Canada and the US a resounding slap in spite of knowing that US has capabilities to spy on Indians. It’s a nice turnaround for once, since the US extends a hand of friendship and has slapped India around with the other hand for a long time now.
The BBC article seems to indicate that the US response has been muted and Canada is isolated. So contrary to what MKB says, I don’t think the US will be able to create too much trouble for India on this issue.
Dear Dr Karnad,
How much do you think the current Khalistani saga will complicate the Indian case on Kulbhushan Jadav ?
There’s no connection between the Jadav and Nijjar cases. Besides, we are rumoured to have a Pakistani army colonel in captivity for an eventual exchange.
@bharatkarnad Given the news reports about US intelligence cooperation with Canada in this matter, what are your comments on the COMCASA agreement that India has signed with US dies that agreement and Indo US intelligence cooperation make India vulnerable in any way. Is there any one in Indian government likely to rethink on COMCASA etc.
Having signed the 4 “foundational accords” with the US, which shouldn’t have been done, it is unlikely yje Modi regime will end COMCASA or the other ags.
Sir,
how about holding referendum in India to create a separate Khalistan inside Canada,referendum in India to create a separate Quebec country to teach a lesson to Canada.
Mr Bharat,
How would you feel if say either the Pakistani ISI or the Chinese intelligence decide to `BUMP` you off for propagating anti Pakistani / Chinese views on social media?
Not feeling too happy if you come to know of such a plan?
Khalistani views have an almost ZERO following in Punjab but there are extreme radical (and perhaps lunatic) elements in this field but they count for nothing. Similar anti Indian views are shared by several thousands and even lacs of Pakistani citizens. So do you propose that RAW should launch a crusade to kill all these indoctrinated Pakistani citizens?
Killing a foreign citizen in a foreign country cannot be justified even if such a foreign citizen holds extreme anti Indian views. Period.
Why stop at killing Nijjar – tell Modi that with his 56 inch chest he should kill all these lacs of anti Indian indoctrinated Pakistani citizens – but the same RAW cannot kill say the 3 Star Corps commander of the Chinese Army whose troops have captured say 2000 sq. miles of Indian territory in Ladakh.
Manjeet Sodhi
Col (Retd)
I agree with you Col Sodhi on this one. Unfortunately hatred begets more hatred. This type of hatred that was reserved for Pakistan until now has now been extended to Sikhs with the “khalistanis” as a bahana. What we are not taking into consideration is that it creates enormous difficulties for Hindu citizens of Canada. Those Hindu Canadians who support India on this issue will be instantly branded as “terrorist sympathizers” of a rogue foreign regime that assassinates law-abiding Canadian citizens. Mark my word this Nijjar episode will force the Hindu Canadians to take a stand and distance themselves from the Modi regime on this particular issue.
On the other hand, a small group like the Khalistanis will have their martyr in Nijjar after Bhindranwale. This is something that is not going to be good for everyone of us in the long run.
Mr Sodhi,
We don’t know who bumped off whom. You are making your own negative assumptions, based on your own prejudices. Remember that Khalistani “Canadian” Ripudaman Singh Malik was also killed in a similar shooting in that same area, 11 months before Nijjar was shot. Not one Canadian politician made any statement or condemnation, not one protest was held by Khalistanis anywhere.
Note that Malik was a Khalistani in favour of entering into talks with Indian govt for reconciliation. This was hotly opposed by hardliners like Nijjar, who viewed those like Malik as traitors to the cause.
I feel that Nijjar’s hardliners were responsible for the killing of Malik, and in response that other side then killed Nijjar in retaliation. But you go ahead and believe what you want, Sodhi — I know you’ll always reserve your first blame for India.
Why is it that Canada tilts towards hardliners and against reconcilers? It’s because Trudeau and the Canadian Left wish to milk Sikh votes through the Khalistan issue. They have to milk the Sikhs, since the black vote isn’t large enough in Canada compared America, where Biden milks blacks relentlessly by always talking about Slavery, US Civil War, Jim Crow, and Equity. That means India must be vilified for the convenience of Canada’s political establishment. We are the new “Deplorables”.
@manofsan – interesting!
@Prof Karnad
Lolz, I just recently watched an interview of yours calling Indians “enervated”. Perhaps finally they are changing?
At this rate we might even see a real 250kt or 500kt test in our own life times! Who knows!
On a bit more serious note you are a crusader against cartel treaties (NPT, CTBT) and for India moving ahead on the yield curve. But perhaps to help that important cause, you may want to drop some of the more radical strategies you advocate like nuclear arming Philippines/Vietnam or moving away IRBMs meant for stalemating Pak!
You are very influential – I know you take it as a moral duty to help Indian strategic community think towards doing the right thing. But I am afraid being too hawkish and impractical may not help.
Itanium@ — The case I have made for some 25 years now for arming countries on China’s periphery with nuclear-armed missiles is as payback to China’s nuclear missile arming Pakistan. However belated this response, it is the only way to neutralise China in its backyard — the strategic objective. Why deal with the cat’s paw, I have argued, when neutralisng the cat is more effective. And why is this option “impractical”? In all the years I have been pushing it from my days in the first NSAB, not one person from among the legion of senior and serving diplomats and and serving and ex-militarymen has been able to explain why this is undoable. The fact is there is no other solution to containing a China superior in every respect, including diplomacy and economic might.
Secondly, this is the first time I am hearing of the 3,500km range IRBM for use against Pakistan, which is doing quite well destroying itself without our help, and is not very wide at its widest. I thought all along that Agni-2s, 3s, 5prime, were meant for China. What’s the 700 km Agni-1 for then? But your view does reflect what I have also been stressing — the fatal inability of the Indian people and their government to see beyond their noses, properly perceive military threats, or to distinguish between a nuisance and a comprehensive threat demanding strategic attention.
Professor,
Do you think that the Chinese peripheral nations are too scared of China to accept nuclear weapons? I get the sense that Vietnam is skittish about taking even Indian conventional rockets (Brahmos). I see this caution with other SE Asian nations like Philipines and Indonesia too, though they have started buying conventional,rockets.
That’s exactly the right word — skittish (for Vietnam), but nothing that cannot be pitched to Hanoi.
@Prof Karnad.
As you would agree nuclear weapon designs are one of the most jealously guarded state secrets on this planet. (See how America wriggled itself out of agreement to share N weapons design with Britain in the early days of Manhattan project). So no-one is going to give it to another country – not for the love of money or for the love of land.
Also think about the impracticality of transferring the entire gamut needed for housing N Arsenal: HEU Enrichment, Weapon Design, Delivery Systems, Communications, Command & Controls, Political Strategy etc… Do you think Philippines or Vietnam will be capable of handling them? Probably not! Unless you are proposing India adopt “nominal charge” doctrine as it is between US and Germany?
We can propose multitude of strategies to contain China. 1. Making nuclear tunnels in Himalayas.
2. Or moving Agni 234s into Arunachal on rail road mounted canisters.
3. Or housing China oriented A5s in hardened silos in heartland.
4. Perhaps we may partner with US and deploy 2-3 SSBNs on permanent patrol in south china sea in the future and let US exert more pressure from pacific.
5. Or definitely conventionally arm all the peripheral countries to China with Brahmos, Aakash, Nirbhay or even PADs.
But most important of all is for India to preserve nuclear charge and to move ahead in the yield curve.
I rarely comment, though I thoroughly enjoy your interviews, books and blog. But we don’t want to let unworkable propositions to dilute the few but very important threads of message that you are trying to send around yield parity with China, deployment strategies, NFU and other matters.
As far as technical matter of whether Pakistan needs A1s or A2s to checkmate it, I confess its beyond me!
Itanium@ — Vietnam, methinks, would be more receptive, is risk-acceptant, and in a better position to handle NWs. than Philippines, etc.
As regards the ‘strategies’ you suggest, my reactions ad seriatim:
1. Making nuclear tunnels in Himalayas.
A: I advocated excavation of tunnel complexes for invulnerable nuclear missiles and as launch points (after being trundled out) in the 2002, 2005 second edition of my book — ‘Nuclear weapons and Indian Security’. GOI is implementing this suggestion, a couple of tunnel complexes may already be operational.
2. Or moving Agni 234s into Arunachal on rail road mounted canisters.
A: Rail-mobile N-Agni missiles, under cover, are already running around on Indian Railway tracks on the lines of the Soviet/Russian SS-18. While it has many pluses, I discuss the weaknesses of our system as is presently configured as launch platforms in my above book. May be authorities are looking to improve it.
3. Or housing China oriented A5s in hardened silos in heartland.
A: This also is being done — hinterland launch points, given the Indian landmass, makes for a margin of invulnerability.
4. Perhaps we may partner with US and deploy 2-3 SSBNs on permanent patrol in south china sea in the future and let US exert more pressure from pacific.
A. Why partner anybody when we have our own Arihant-class SSBNs?
5. Or definitely conventionally arm all the peripheral countries to China with Brahmos, Aakash, Nirbhay or even PADs.
A: Again, an option I have been pushing from my time in the first NSAB, and articulated in my books! Nuclear wrheaded-Brahmos is what I advocated as payback to China for its nuclear missile arming of Pakistan. But GOI lacks guts and conventional Brahmos cruise missiles — next best thing — are now headed Philippines-ward and to other places in SE Asia.
@Prof Karnad – Good points and well said.
Perhaps let’s not forget the most important of them all – To move ahead in the yield curve to achieve full parity against China. (Though you would agree a 100kt on A5 is probably unquestionable!)
This is a very important point to propagate. But Sethna is no more, and Santhanam is no more. So who else will continue to propagate this message [of furthering the yield curve] in India? It has to be influential speakers like yourself as the only option. I really don’t know anyone else who talks about the TN Fizzle today except may be yourself and Pallav Bhagla (but he is just a reporter)
And 100s of millions of Indians look forward to rare thinkers like yourself for preventing GOI from doing something really really stupid like signing into CTBT (Thank you Santhanam! once again for saving the day).
So I humbly believe your arguments will pack a bigger punch if you tone down some of the more radical proposals like we talked about.
Don’t feel forced to respond to this but just a thought. But I do wish you keep ferociously pushing the right message in every forum possible – Its your duty!
Bharatji,
Modi Government came into Power in 2014 promising rapid economic development. But Modiji’s so called Make in India and all other initiatives have gone to dustbin. Modi did not do any Labour law or other economic reforms. So Indian economic did not do well. But Modiji was able to win 2019 elections because Congress has self-destroyed itself to such an extent that it can no longer pose itself to be a credible alternative to BJP. Balakot strike also played a massive role in helping BJP win 2019 elections.
Right now also BJP does not have anything to show economically for 2024 elections. Now India cannot launch a Balakot like strike because of China. China simply won’t let India do that. So, the Modi launched farm reform laws in 2020. The purpose was not to actually reform agriculture in India. But to excite and lure Sikhs in Punjab. Modi launched the farm reform bills and then the protests in Punjab and Haryana started. Then modi backed off and repealed the 3 farm laws. Modi and Indian establishment thought this would increase the morale and confident of Sikhs so much that they will again launch a movement for Khalistan in India. No such kind of thing happened and Sikhs went home after farm laws were removed.
Then Modi government made sure Aam Aadmi Party wins elections in Punjab. Hoping against hope that this lead to 2nd round of entire 1984 saga. Then Modiji launched Amritpal Saga, hoping to excite and lure Sikhs into launching another suicide struggle. THis also failed.
Now Modi Government Killed some terrorists in Canada. There are many Sikh extremists in USA also. But nobody has dared to touch them. THis entire India-Canada facade will make sure that Modi wins 2024 elections with comfortable majority.
Bharatji my question to you is what will Modiji do to win 2029 elections ?
I do not think modi will do any kind of serious economic reforms, so that factories leaving China may come to India. Modi has the gumption to beat Sikhs because they are just less than 2% of India’s population and without any major state backing them.
Pakistan is much smaller than India and is a muslim state. Islam and modern science and industry are two different things. So India has a massive advantage over Pakistan. But in case of China things are completely different. Even if Nehru had followed different economic policy or Modi now goes onto do serious economic/labour law reforms, still India simply cannot have kind of advantage over China, the way it has over Pakistan.
Will Modi find enough Gumption/strength to take on China before 2029 election or will it be minorities of India who will have to make take the burden of getting Modi over the finish line ?
Harminder S@– You make some good points. But your including India and Pkaistan in the same bracket makes no sense. True, reforming land and labour laws, and rationalising the adminstrative apparatus and the regulatory regime — debureaucratising the state, in other words, will put India on the glide path to, if not matching China, than getting near enough to it. Because the US and the West, the US and the West are intent on friend-shoring their industries now leaving China. The pity is so far these three things Modi has not done. (Though the agricultural reforms you refer to would have fetched better prices to the farmers for their produce and otherwise helped them by removing the middle man from the producer-to-market loop. Not sure why the Punjab farmers rejected it.)
@Harminder- Nice analysis man. Modi won 2019 with a friendly fixed (with ISI) false flag Pulwama attack, which was the brainchild of number-3 in India’s powerful hierarchy.
Deep Sidhu was bumped off in a staged road attack and this unknown entity Amrinder Pal Singh thrust into the limelight now this whole Canadian drama.
Even Sikhs don’t care about this Khalistan. Anyways they have one in Canada but don’t be so sure about Modi winning 2024. There are many a slips between the cup and the mouth.
I think Deep Sidhu was killed by ISI. Are you fingering someone else?
The most surprising aspect of this whole Nijjar’s story is that inspite of Justin Trudeau openly accusing India of arranging a hit on Canadian soil. There is no mention by the Pakistani establishment of the following;
Paramjit Singh Panjwar was killed in Pakistan’s Lahore on May 6th. He was shot dead.
The fact that Pakistan hasn’t raised up this issue akin to Trudeau’s aggressive stand against India clearly reveals that India and Pakistan play friendly (so called terror attacks) games against each other to keep the masses agitated against the other.
Nothing is absolutely black and white there are shades of grey everywhere.
India is also referred to as a terrorist state;
https://www.nation.com.pk/21-Sep-2023/india-on-sikhs-killing-spree-globally
There was a Bollywood song “Isko nachayaa tohh kyaa kiyaa uskoo nachayaa tohh kyaa kiyaa, Amitabh ko nachaoo tohh jaaneyy”
Similarly, isko maraa tohh kyaa kiyaa, usko maraa tohh kyaa kiyaa, Dawood ko maaro tohh jaaneyy.
@ Bharat Karnad- “extra-territorial-killings-are-legal-when-a-motivated-foreign-govt-does-not-act-on-information”
Taking inspiration from Indian government’s action in Canada, the South African establishment has offered a bounty on the head of Gupta brothers;
https://www.trtafrika.com/africa/south-africa-shock-after-uae-rejects-request-for-gupta-brothers-extradition-12649845
From former Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha (Retd)
Wed, 27 Sept at 10:26 am
Very well scripted piece. Please get it published in Canada, US, UK, Australia, NZ & EU. The world would get a proper perspective on the issue of terrorism & politics.
“Pakistan ISI reportedly orchestrated the murder of Khalistan Tiger Force leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar to foment India-Canada fighting. India Today reported that Pak ISI hired criminals to kill the pro-Khalistan terrorist. The report added that Nijjar was also pressurized to support other terrorists in Canada but he refused.” –
https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/pak-isi-killed-nijjar-to-foment-india-canada-fight-new-conspiracy-after-trudeaus-shocker-report-101695831889023.html
Read also:
Bharatji,
I have watched your past couple of interviews/podcasts. In one of those podcasts you say that Indians/Hindus do not take on a powerful opponent like China. But are more than willing to beat a small opponent like Pakistan, where victory is more or less assured. You have written this in one of the past blogs also.
Sir, right now I am living in Canada and I work in one of the reserves of Native people of Canada. Native people or Red Indians of Canada have told me that French people of Quebec are more racist towards them than the English speaking people. French people of Quebec consider themselves to be superior than atleast the Natives of Canada. I think that reason for this is that over the past 500 or so years French have lost a lot of battles to the English. English people have been winning from the French. So this has created a Psyche of English people where they treat Natives of Canada fairly decently. But because of past military defeats French are a bit more racist towards Natives of Canada. Furthermore before 1950s French of Quebec were discriminated against by the English. French have a kind of inferiority Complex with respect to English
Right now Modi is selling hate to Hindus against a minority. Modi is a politician who will do anything to win elections. But the problem is Hindus are buying it. I think the reason for this is tremendous inferiority complex of Hindus because of past 600-800 years of military defeats. I happen to be born in a Sikh family, but before Sikhism we were all Hindus. So present day sikhs were together with hindus during those past 600-800 years of dark age. I have no intention of hurting anybody.
If in future India becomes a great Industrial Power like Japan and is able to defeat militarily much stronger/bigger countries than itself. Like Japan defeated Russia in 1905 and took America by the neck in 1940s. If India is able to do something like that in the future, then will Hindus stop buying hate that is sold by politicians like Modi ?
Harminder@ — Your take is interesting and aligns with my views on many issues you raise, and are featured in all my books, especially ‘Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)’ published in 2015 by Oxford University Press.
@Hamrinder, I’ve looked at how countries behave more from a power structure angle than a hatred due to military defeat angle (though past military success can have an impact on current power balance) . Each country struggles to secure its own prosperity and competes to achieve that aim. Once it succeeds and gains power, its attitude can be more relaxed towards other countries. However, hatred between communities is likely driven by other ideological reasons also. If winning wars over other countries with different communities was the only driver of such hatred, then the Islamic nations and people around India would not hate India so much. After all they successfully defeated India in the past.
I think the hatred would be more driven by their current lack of security and/or prosperity. The French in Quebec have been fighting for their autonomy and perhaps their own homeland – they feel less secure in their own country and this could be driving their behaviour. While the Anglo Saxons are more secure. So while winning wars in the past may contribute to a significant portion of their security, the main driver of behaviour is how secure they feel today. Otherwise the Pakistanis would not feel such hatred towards India today. And neither would Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh (though to a lesser degree).
Military victory is, perhaps why China is contemptuous of India and, in turn, India is docile towards China and the Anglosaxon crowd!
Professor, while India may have lost the 62 war, what will determine future Indo China dynamics will be how secure each feels with each other and other great powers. If the U.S. threatens both China and India for example, there can be rapproachment between the two countries, irrespective of the fact that India lost the 1962 war. This is what is happening with Russia and China for example currently.
Sir, Nobody anywhere in Canada likes your hero Jagmeet Singh, to be sure. That kid is an incompetent idiot, and a political grifter. He’s literally a dumb jock (brainless athletic type) who went into politics as a fallback, and he’s very obviously a Khalistan supporter whose smile hides a smirk.
It’s not Modi who’s cultivating hate against Muslims, it’s Congress and the Left who feel so threatened by Modi’s development politics, that they’re only able to fall back on stoking up fears in Muslims to stampede them into their waiting arms – that’s what their Vote Bank strategy requires. The public is exasperated with Leftist fear-mongering. We also see similar political games among American and Canadian Left, who invariably call their local opponents fascists as well. Canadian Left cannot survive on the black vote like the American Left do, and so Canadian Left try to support Khalistan to milk Sikhs for votes.
manofsan@ — Jagmeet — “my hero”!!! Are you reading my post or commenting on something else?
Prof Karnad – that reply from me was directed at Harminder Singh’s comment immediately above.
Bharatji,
Trudeau Liberals have messed up Canada’s economy and Culture big time. Lower Middle class whites, immigrants and natives were the bedrock of Liberals. Trudeau has introduced LGBTQ+ nonsense in Schools in a way that is unthinkable. Liberals have introduced drag queen events in class 1 to class 5 students. Something unthinkable. Even Middle class whites want to get rid of spread LGBTQ ideology from Schools. So there is no question of conservative sikhs ever voting for Liberals in 2025 elections.
Trudeau has imported a very large number of immigrants from second/third world countries. He has increased immigration from 0.8% to 1.2% of population each year at a time of great economic difficulty. This has made life very miserable for Lower/middle class whites and natives. Even well settled immigrants are tired of very high level of immigration. But in Trudeau’s world if you say anything against LGBTQ and immigration you are a racist. In Canada most of the media is ideologically inclined towards left. But it is still quite independent. Most of the liberal media says Trudeau’s popularity has plummeted to such a record low that it is unthinkable. Liberals are predicted to lose 2025 elections in a way nobody has lost in the Canada’s 150 year history.
Trudeau wants to hold onto its traditional Sikh vote, because of which he has set a very divisive narrative. Chances of Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh ever succeeded in it are very bleak !!!
@Manofsan- Deep Sidhu was killed in a staged road accident by the Indian establishment.
You will always blame India first. Next you will tell me that Sonia or Kejriwal have been targeted by Modi govt for similar road accidents. I don’t believe Indian govt would do any such thing to Deep Sidhu just for behaving like an uncouth hooligan. He didn’t even get booked on any terror charges. The fact that you claim otherwise says more about you than anything else. Your ideas just don’t add up, no matter how hard you try to jigger them.
@Manofsan- You believe me or don’t believe me doesn’t bother me in the least. You asked me a question and I gave you the answer. Your statement that Modi government will target Sonia and Kejriwal in a road accident in an election year shows how much strategic sense you possess yourself.
Bharatji,
I live here in Canada. Second Generation Sikhs, who are born in Canada have Canadian identity. They were raised here in a multicultural society and went to schools in Canada. They have no affinity to Khalistani cause. The years between age 6 to 18 are very important in the life of humans. Whatever you put inside their brains during this ager never goes out ? Prof Pratap Bhanu Mehta said this. So the people with radical bent of mind realised this. Hence they started religious schools, so as to give Canadian born Sikhs a Sikh identity instead of Canadian identity.
They do not really teach any kind of hate against hindus or India, but that is what it becomes for few of the passouts. Such kind of Schools exist in Surrey and Brampton. They are actually proper schools modelled on Catholic schools, which teach subjects like Math, Physics etc. But very few Parents send their kids to these schools becuase first of all these private schools are very expensive. Canadian government schools are very good and free of cost. Secondly most Parents want their kids to become Scientists, engineers etc. And the schools run by white people are generally considered superior and a much better choice. The main advertisement of these schools is that they will teach Punjabi to the kids so they can atleast read Gurbani.
The main problem is that if your identity in Canada is that of a Sikh only, then you will be attracted to Khalistan nonsense. These schools are a very recent invention, so their passouts haven’t reached any mature age. Most of the students in these schools spend some time learn Punjabi and move on.
Nijjar was no Canadian, no matter how hard his supporters try to argue he was. He was a newcomer who couldn’t speak either of that country’s 2 national languages, and had no interest in assimilating into their society. Instead, he spent all his time talking about Khalistan and campaigning for it. He’d made multiple trips to Pakistan to meet with other Khalistan terrorists wanted in India for serious attacks, in order to coordinate planning for further violence in India. He was also running a terror training camp in the woods of British Columbia, training Sikh youths in how to shoot high-powered sniper rifles, among other things. See this report from 2016:
@Itanium, from what I’ve read (Ashley Tellis latest nuclear analysis on India China and Pakistan) India has confirmed yield capability of only 20KT, not 100KT. India claims 250KT. Would be curious to know your source for the 100KT claim.
@Amit “Sources”? Ha ha! I don’t think anyone other than extremely few has an inkling of idea on what really happened in Pokran II including your Ashley Tellis. He is a speculator just like you and I are. He probably doesn’t know whit about what really happened.
The Indian claim is, the tested warhead was miniaturized weapon that yielded 20kt which no one is disputing . And like nearly everything else in life if you scale it up, so will its yield. So a 5x real model should technically yield 200KT and giving it nearly 50% margin of error it is safe to say it will give a 100KT. Key is “scaling” – more the material (U235) more the fission and more E=MC2.
Even if you assume a relatively inefficient design (low yield to weight ratio) the 1.5T or so capacity of A5s should be thoroughly sufficient to house a boosted fission of supposedly 200kt potential.
@Itanium, got it. Thanks for the elucidation.