Bharat Karnad Explains Why India Must Fix China

Posted on July 24, 2023 by Bharat Karnad

An ‘Offensive Defence’ podcast may be of interest:

About Bharat Karnad

Senior Fellow in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, he was Member of the (1st) National Security Advisory Board and the Nuclear Doctrine-drafting Group, and author, among other books of, 'Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy', 'India's Nuclear Policy' and most recently, 'Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)'. Educated at the University of California (undergrad and grad), he was Visiting Scholar at Princeton University, University of Pennsylvania, the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC.
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27 Responses to Bharat Karnad Explains Why India Must Fix China

  1. ASHMAN says:
    July 24, 2023 at 4:10 pm

    Nuke China? Great. Trust Russia? Why?

    Reply
  2. A says:
    July 24, 2023 at 5:39 pm

    Dr Karnad , you said in the podcast that no young Indian scholar thinks like you. What are your thoughts on Abhijeet Iyer Mitra ? He seems like a reasonably good conservative strategist.I see similarities between him and you

    Reply
    • Bharat Karnad says:
      July 24, 2023 at 6:48 pm

      A@ — Mr Mitra has lot of promise. Hope he converts his views into substantial well-researched books/studies, otherwise it is a lot of opinion-mongering and there’s no dearth of that.

      Reply
      • Amit says:
        July 25, 2023 at 2:41 pm

        Professor, that is what he does. Lot of opinion mongering and foul mouthed as well! Entitled and half baked. Can poke a lot of holes in his arguments!

  3. foodometry says:
    July 24, 2023 at 5:42 pm

    Dr Karnad , you said in the podcast that no young Indian scholar thinks like you.

    Why don’t you start training young minds to think in a realpolitik/conservative manner. You are a senior fellow at USI, the oldest think tank of india, can’t its resources be mobilised for such a purpose ?

    Reply
    • Bharat Karnad says:
      July 24, 2023 at 6:45 pm

      @foodometry — USI’d be an ideal platform but a lot of what I advocate does not sit well with the military brass running the show there.

      Reply
      • ASHMAN says:
        July 24, 2023 at 7:22 pm

        Are you standing with the military in their boots on the borders? Military has all the right to do what it deems fit. Just like you have your right to think the way you want and profess what you want. Do not blame others on how they think. It is your problem to make others see the same way you do. Self reliance is good, but time and conditions and situations defines tactics and strategies.

  4. Vivek says:
    July 25, 2023 at 8:17 am

    Do you really think that if india had got parmanent UNSC , it would have become as powerful and developed as china today and would able to take descision unilaterally when it comes to UN vote? Hence i think Nehru did right by giving UNSC seat to china.

    Reply
    • Bharat Karnad says:
      July 25, 2023 at 8:47 am

      India’s UNSC seat and developing in the manner China has, are mutually exclusive! India may not have become a near-great power as China has in the same timeframe. But being in the SC would have placed the country in a unique position to shape the rules of international relations and frustrate Beijing.

      Reply
      • Sagar says:
        July 25, 2023 at 10:08 am

        Attitude of some people in army and airforce is detrimental to indigenous development of weapon systems. Do you have any solution to change the attitude?Also you are spot on about civil servants being generalist.What are your suggestions to make them specialist of a particular area?

      • Bharat Karnad says:
        July 25, 2023 at 10:27 am

        Suggested the solution in my last post, or so: Dismiss all Chiefs of Staff who hanker for foreign maal, and pick deep and only those committed to being party to their Services’ requirements being met from wholly indigenous sources. This can be done by rationalising the defence procurement loop by rearranging the defence industry in the manner proposed in my 2015 book — Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet). This will necessitate integrating the assets of the private sector and DPSUs-Ordnance factories.
        And no, in strategic technical fields generalist civil servants cannot be trained on the job. The need can only be met by lateral entry for short periods of recognized experts at high levels.

      • Amit says:
        July 26, 2023 at 3:07 am

        Professor,

        Having worked in India for a few years, and currently leading a practice with Indians to deliver AI/ML solutions to US clients, I can tell you that one must not overestimate the capabilities of the Indian workforce to deliver world class solutions. My view is that the Indian workforce is good at ‘doing’ not good at ‘thinking’. What is required to be self reliant in defence is a good combination of thinking and doing, especially for new product development (not services, where India has done well in innovative use of labor). The one example of where Indians have thought originally and done world class work is the development of the UPI system, which seems to be a disruptive technology being adopted globally.

        However, such examples are few and far between, and that has to do with the nature of the Indian workforce. So while I agreed with you earlier when you made comments about just using Indian made weapon systems, whatever their quality and timeframes of development, I don’t see the wisdom in it anymore. This strategy will be a huge risk to the defence of the country, and it is no wonder the military brass does not support it. You have to have operational industry experience to see the point, something I’m afraid that you lack.

        Some examples you cite in your book like the abandonment of the HF24 Marut project, the lack of foresight in taking bomber tech when it was offered by Russia etc. are serious errors of judgement. But at the same time, anyone with any Indian industry operational experience will tell you, the Indian workforce is not great at big idea generarion and execution. This is a work in process, and in time things can be different. To rely on such a workforce lock stock and barrel without thinking about its consequences is a foolhardy decision.

        I used to think that if India does things in mission mode, it will achieve great things. India’s missile program, space programs etc. are cited as examples. The SSBNs are also another example. However, I learnt over time that we did all this with ample foreign help (Russian especially). Maybe now Indians are doing more in these areas, but it has taken decades to reach there.

        So, I don’t see why India should not import stuff while making the right efforts to make more in India. Attacking the military top brass without justification is in poor taste.

      • Bharat Karnad says:
        July 26, 2023 at 6:43 am

        Amit@ – The point I have repeatedly made in my books and other writings is that India failed to do what other countries that are self sufficient in arms did — reverse engineer the items you buy to establish your own capabilities. Instead of this, at the armed services’ prompting new buys from abroad under the rubric of modernization is the way GOI has gone. Reverse engineering does not require high innovation off the bat, but becomes available as one improves the item until you get to an indigenous capability threshold, from skills-competencies perspective when one can design and develop new more modern systems ourselves. Unwillingness to take these first steps and then to expect India to be atmnirbhar is delusional. And that’s the whole case right there. Labour productivity of L&T, say, can match that of Lockheed, Dassault, or any other Company. That’s really not the problem. However, the same cannot be said for defence public sector units.

      • Amit says:
        July 26, 2023 at 7:07 am

        What I’m saying professor is that there is a reason for lack of reverse engineering and / or innovation. The Indian workforce by and large is not yet capable of it. This is my hypothesis based on my observations. I have worked with IIT /IIM graduates and the second and third rungs. The IIT/IIM group is quite capable and can be creative, but the second and third rung are more doers than thinkers.

        I can tell you that even companies like Tata Motors or Mahindra are not hotbeds of innovation. It has required infusion of foreign talent to improve Tata Motors vehicles in the last decade. Maruti gets its technology from Suzuki. The Indian defense industry is full of public sector companies, not exactly paragons of innovation. Yeah maybe some private companies are doing good work, but these are green shoots. The kind of inertia even at these companies would be high I would guess based on my experience.

        This self reliance goal will require sustained political and commercial leadership, which can happen in India but likely slowly. In the meanwhile, foreign partnerships, foreign talent infusion and imports will be required to build India’s capabilities. There is not much doubt about this.

      • Bharat Karnad says:
        July 26, 2023 at 7:23 am

        Amit@ — In weapons systems, it is the indigenisation of design that’s crucial. Infusion of foreign talent is fine. It is what we do with it, which’s the problem.. To cite a case that I often do: Nehru imaginatively imported Dr Kurt Tank, lead designer of the WW-II era Focke-Wulfe fighter-bomber aircraft, to create HF-24. He trained Drs Ghtage Patil and Raj Mahindra in leading-edge aircraft design. Mahindra tasked with designing a mark-2 version of the Marut did so and spectacularly well. The result: Between IAF brass and defence minister Jagjivan Ram the HF-71 was killed and the Jaguar bought from the UK! Consider what the state of the Indian aerospace industry and the ecosystem generally might have been today had the HF-71 been the first of the Indian-designed and made modern combat aircraft to fill IAF’s main fleet! There are no excuses really. We fouled up and continue doing so.

      • Amit says:
        July 26, 2023 at 7:34 am

        Professor, totally agree with historical missteps. It’s the continue to do so part, I’m not so sure of. Things are changing, but will require sustained leadership. And there are other problems in the Indian eco system which also require fixing – like workforce capabilities, funding and investment, corruption (I don’t buy the argument that the military is the main corrupt institution), bureaucratic meddling and delays etc. Not sure about how much it is a military top brass problem like it may have been in the past. Also don’t think it is the main problem.

      • Bharat Karnad says:
        July 26, 2023 at 10:48 am

        Consider: Your solution, which meshes with the GOI policy will, 40 years from now, be seen as “historical missteps” too.

      • Ayush says:
        July 26, 2023 at 3:10 pm

        What’s the point of the Marut when it’s avionics and engine were imported? In fact, even basic raw materials were sourced from abroad.To give you an idea of the scale of the problem which the Modi govt confronted, until 2021 the Indian army’s arctic gear was imported off the shelf from Canadian,European and even Vietnamese companies.It was only in late 2020 when an Indian OEM stepped out and offered better and cheaper locally developed alternatives.The standard issue hand grenade of the Indian army was a license manufactured version of something that the Red army used in storming Berlin in April 1945! It was only two years ago did the Indian army induct in large numbers, a modern DRDO ARDE developed grenade.The Indian army-air force brass have been at the heart of the conundrum along with the local industry players.The latter have made stellar strides in Technological innovation.Modi govt deserves due credit for the progress they have achieved without having completely discarded the cesspool-like civilian and uniformed bureaucracy.

      • Amit says:
        July 26, 2023 at 4:24 pm

        Perhaps Professor. Since India has underperformed for so long. But I can tell you that the indigenous weapons developed today far exceed those in the 80s and 90s. Let’s say India implemented your policy – ban imports of submarines propulsion, aircraft engines, chip technology etc. I would bet that there would be even more major gaps in India’s security capabilities. Frankly, I would think it’s impossible to implement.

  5. Ayush says:
    July 25, 2023 at 12:34 pm

    Dr karnad, this summer has provided me with an insightful opportunity to learn about the network of the 11,000 odd MSME’s involved in the defense supply chain.I have also read in detail about the nature of procurement in the tri-services.I now conclude that your initial suggestion of appointing a Navy admiral of as the CDS couldn’t have been more right.This is only and only because the Navy is the only armed service which at least genuinely *tries* to indigenize as much as possible(they are no angels either).The standard decades old excuse of the army-IAF brass that the “defense industrial base in non existent” is simply irrelevant today.However, the IAF brass are of a completely different level as far as their “infatuation” with “phoren maal” is concerned.Only general court martial of the top brass(GCM) can tame these two services.

    Reply
  6. Chaalu Chamaari says:
    July 25, 2023 at 3:07 pm

    Chinese monkey God has nothing to do with Indian Lord Hanuman. It’s a character from the Chinese epic, “Journey to the West”

    Stop spreading fake propaganda.

    Reply
    • Bharat Karnad says:
      July 25, 2023 at 4:19 pm

      Chaalu Chamaari@ — ‘Journey to the West’ symbolizes journey to India, and retails the adventures of the monkey king (sun wukong) on his journey with his entourage.

      Reply
      • Ayush says:
        July 25, 2023 at 5:33 pm

        Dr Karnad,
        You and I, and the US defense establishment knows full well that the only way of permanently shackling china strategically is to place a few dozen nukes(both tactical and strategic) under the operational control of the Taiwanese governent.The Chinese A2/AD bubble is now powerful enough to keep US naval forces at least 1000 milese away from the island.Forward US airbases will be flattened by Chinese PLARF bombardment.Tacnukes are the only thing which can eliminate PLA beacheads and large convoys of amphibious ships.A dozen or two Agni-P IRBM’s can hold Beijing, all PLA theatre command HQ’s along with all major coastal economic centers at risk and deterring nuclear reaction.20-30 nuclear armed Pralay and Agni-p missiles are the perfect antidote for China.Despite China’s nuclear arming of Pakistan and North Korea, it’s still an open question as to why India and the US haven’t responded in kind.

  7. Gajjab Gujjar says:
    July 25, 2023 at 8:30 pm

    Chinese Foreign Minister was caught with his pants down. He was honey-trapped by a CIA operative in Yankeeland;

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66299379

    Any Indian leader honeytrapped by the Chinese?

    Reply
  8. Jaahil Jaat says:
    July 26, 2023 at 2:56 pm

    Who cares about national interest. It’s just a term to hoodwink people.

    The whole thing is that “kii sabsaeyy badaa rupaiyya” as the famous song filmed on Mahmud in one of the Bollywood films from the last century.

    Reply
  9. Bhayyanaak Bhangii says:
    July 26, 2023 at 3:07 pm

    @Ayush- “Despite China’s nuclear arming of Pakistan and North Korea, it’s still an open question as to why India and the US haven’t responded in kind”

    USA is minting billions selling weapons to Taiwan and Indian establishment was, is and continue to be totally scared of China.

    Reply

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