[Prime Minister Modi and US President Biden in a deep clinch in Washington]
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Munnabhai-type “jaddoo ki jhappi” is what, in my 2018 book (Staggering Forward), I called a “diplomatic innovation”. It has succeeded beyond measure. After close encounters of this kind with the Indian PM, no Western leader has failed to show warmth in return, which gets reflected in the diplomatic successes Modi has enjoyed. For foreign leaders, moreover, what’s not to like about Modi especially if his visits bring in their wake huge defence and technology sales? It is like a rich visiting uncle leaving behind goodies. So, Western leaders have learned heartily to reciprocate with personalised touchy-feely treatments of their own.
The good vibes between India and the US and France is reflected in the windfall deals for the Boeing Company of Seattle and the French Airbus corporation that have led to their order books being filled by private airlines in India. The Tata Company’s Air India’s order of 220 planes worth some $34 billion –10 wide-body B777X planes, 20 wide-body B787 planes, and 190 narrow-body B737MAX planes, with an option for an additional 20 B787s and 50 B737MAXs, and for another 250 aircraft from Airbus — 34 A350-1000s and six A350-900s, and 140 Airbus A320neo, 70 Airbus A321neo for $36 billion. These contracts will keep Boeing and Airbus afloat for the next 40 years at least. Not to be outdone, Indigo, the private sector company accounting for over 30% of the Indian air travel market, placed the single largest order in history — 500 single aisle A320s from Airbus costing $50 billion. This is atop a previous equally humungous order according to which 480 Airbus planes are still to be delivered to Indigo! Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia justified these deals by saying “India’s flag has to fly in international space”. (https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/air-india-does-pre-delivery-payment-to-boeing-for-aircraft-cfo-hejmadi-123060900782_1.html).
No one told this poor sap of a minister that almost all the aircraft thus procured by Air India and Indigo will mostly ply the Indian skies. So, for jhanda ooncha rahen hamara in international space, he will have to look elsewhere.
But emphasis on the wrong angle is characteristic of the Indian government, Indian political and industry leaders, government officials, and military officers alike. They all seem incapable of seeing beyond their noses. I have been making this point for some 30 years now that, like China, we should only strike deals for high-worth passenger aircraft as a means to acquire not just select aviation technologies but manufactiring jigs, CAD/CAM, and production skills and competences like process engineering instead of periodically doling out $40 billion here, $50 billion there, and leaving it to the aircraft vendors to throw crumbs at us in exchange — a unit in Hyderabad for MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul) operations, promises to offtake minor aircraft assemblies (doors, etc.) from Tata factories in India, etc. Instead of acquiring the capacity to produce whole passenger aircraft, New Delhi is satisfied with fractional returns on very large buys abroad.
China instinctively went big from the start, even as the Indian government has not learned the basics of negotiations of getting something very substantial for buying something big. Having taken 10 years to negotiate the first deal, the always strategic-minded China secured in 1985 from the California-based McConnell Douglas aircraft company, a co-production deal for 26 medium haul MD-80 passenger aircraft for around $800 million. Of this order, 25 were to be assembled in China by the Shanghai Aviation Corporation (SAC) and only ONE aircraft was to be bought off the shelf! As part of this transaction, American engineers and technicians were required to be on the SAC factory floor training and skilling Chinese project managers and workers who thus learned on the job from experts. This contract had provisions for the Chinese Company buying out the entire MD-80 production line and wherewithal if increased domestic air travel required it. Soon enough, McConnell Douglas sold off its entire passenger aircraft business to China until now when it produces its own modern, single aisle, passenger aircraft — the Comac C919 to outfit its many domestic airlines.
In contrast India — apna watan — forked over billions upon billions of dollars — as if money was going out of style — for aircraft wholly produced in the US and France that will generate employment and upkeep the aerospace industries in these countries, and there’s no one to ask if Indian private sector airlines should be permitted to cut such deals with hard currency from the national reserves that produce zero returns to the country in terms of aircraft tech and manufacturing technologies.
Hardly to be wondered then that Biden was all solicitous and smiles and laid it on thick when Modi went to the White House a fortnight back. Elated for Boeing, Biden crowed to the press that the Indian order would create a million additional jobs in America. Eager for even more custom this time in the military aviation field and also to tie India’s security to America’s national interests, the US President approved the sale of the GE 414 jet aircraft engine along with the transfer of 80% of its technologies. The 20% non-transferrable constitute critical tech apparently not covered by the iCET (Intiative for Critical & Emerging Technologies) recently inaugurated with much fanfare.
So which GE jet engine is actually on offer? Is it the vanilla 414 model with 98 kiloNewtons of thrust with afterburners that originally equipped the F-18E/F Super Hornet for the US Navy, or the new EDE (Enhanced Durability Engine) variant which can produce 15% more thrust but at the expense of lesser engine life? The EDE’s augmented thrust with afterburner would be 108.7kN, near enough to the 110 kN mark Indian designers have mandated for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft and for the naval 2-engined Tejas for aircraft carrier operations. The increased thrust of EDE is due to the second low pressure turbine within the engine made from ceramic composites, which reduces the weight by a third and results in a more robust jet engine with the capacity to operate without the need for cooling air. This last quality, in turn, results in aerodynamics and fuel consumption-wise a more efficient power plant for combat aircraft. Tradeoffs-wise, the EDE makes more sense. Can India wheedle the EDE out of Washington even with the nontransferrable 20% in tact?
[Modi embracing French President Emanuel Macron in Paris]
France is an old hand at this game. No sooner was the GE 414 promised by the US, the ever nimble Quai d’Orsay immediately upped the ante. It promised that its jet engine maker, Safran (the old SNECMA — Société nationale d’études et de construction de moteurs d’aviation) would assist India to design and produce a completely new 110 kN engine in the centre of excellence it intends to establish in India for the purpose. The engine is expected to be ready inside of 10 years and, project wise, be time- and cost-competitive with the GE 414 programme. The bonus is that the Safran deal will be minus the Damocles’ sword hanging over any defence deal with the US — the threat of activation by Washington of the US International Trade in Arms Regulations (ITAR) law, because Paris is not so legally constrained. This is of crucial importance, and was cleverly hinted at by French ambassador Emmanuel Lenain in a recent press interview (Times of India, Junly 1) when he mentioned “sustainability and autonomy” as the prime attributes India seeks to ensure with its foreign defence contracts and which aims, Paris claims, its deal furthers.
The reality is between US legislative activism and White House’s momentary interests, no defence contract is safe from countermanding by the US Congress. There’s no legal sanctity to any contract signed with any US Company or even a G2G (government-to-government) deal for militry goods. India suffered in the past because of it. President Ronald Reagan was compelled to rescind, for example, the deal for US supply of low enriched fuel for the lifetime of the light water reactors at the Tarapur nuclear power station because US nonproliferation laws subsequently promulgated by the US Congress required him to do so. Because the Reagan Administration felt losing India’s confidence would irreparably harm bilateral relations, it persuaded the French government to replace it as fuel supplier. A different administration with a different take on the US national interest could just as easily have shrugged its shoulders and pointed to its inability to do other than implement US law. This might happen again, at any time in the future with the GE 414 contract.
There’s no elasticity in the US system if the White House or the US Congress wants to be punitive even when third parties are involved. Thus in the wake of the 1998 nuclear tests, President Bill Clinton sanctioned India, instantly grounding the Indian Navy’s Sea King anti-submarine warfare helicopter fleet, for instance, because its engine had US-made components! It is this uncertainty that will always dog every US-sourced military equipment in Indian employ and which Ambassador Lenain not so obliquely referred to. The Modi regime should have these facts in mind.
What would happen if the US Congress decides post-414 deal to punish India for, say, not supporting this or that US policy line? The fact that India may have forked over billions of dollars for the GE 414 engine and for its transfer of technology would mean nothing. This is something Pakistan, ostensibly America’s then closest regional partner, for example, learned to its utter consternation. In the 1980s, the Benazir Bhutto government paid up some $370-odd million for additional F-16 strike aircraft only to see new American legislative action negate that contract, resulting in the contracted aircraft — parked for years at a Nevada base and rotting in the sun — remaining undelivered to the Pakistan Air Force, and the money not returned to Islamabad until 30 years later when, given the inflation rate, the value of $370 million had shrunk to low three figures!
What in theory also commends the Safran proposal is that it will be an entirely new design possibly involving materials, such as ceramic composites, and AMCA/Tejas in mind, that it will comply with the stealth features in their designs. The project, moreover, will come with its full supply chain and scheme to manufacture all ancillaries in India. Safran is embarked on producing a jet engine for France’s 6th generation fighter aircraft with afterburner thrust of 125 kN, so it has the design and production nous to help India meet its 110kN engine milspecs. And, most significantly, Paris is offering the 20% of critical tech not included in Washington’s GE 414 tech-transfer deal — the single crystal turbine blades for the jet engine, and other tech.
But, and there is a big but here. GTRE had a consultancy contract with Snecma to help the Kaveri engine get over the hump. When it came to the crunch, according to Indian sources, the Safran-parent, Snecma simply backed away from helping in any meaningful way. And Snecma took a very long time doing it puting the Kaveri in a freeze for the duration until Modi’s 2015 decision to buy Rafale powered by the Safran M-88 engine when the issue of whether Kaveri would work became moot.
To prevent France and Safran/Snecma from again playing us for fools, the contract the Indian government signs should be so tightly drafted by the Indian Ministry of Defence (MOD) — something it is actually incapable of doing if previous contracts with foreign vendors are any guide that have favoured foreign vendors at every turn when it came to realising full ToT (Transfer of Technology) — that it will list, in the minutest technical detail, every technology ranging from every small component to big assemblies, inclusive of critical tech, such as single crystal turbine blades, etc.. The contract should also be framed in an iron-clad time table for tech transfer that’s to be followed, detailing when and to which Indian agency each technology will be transferred to the fullest extent, and by which date. There should be no let, leave, latitude or flexibility in any provision or clause that could permit Safran to wriggle out of contractual commitments. And that each clause and provision of the TOT agreement, running possibly into thousands of pages. has to be legally enforceable under international law which Safran will have to agree to, with imposition of severe financial penalties in case the French Company defaults on any TOT clause/provision for any reason at any time, or causes the engine project time and cost overruns.
It may be safely said that no agency in the Indian government has the requisite contract writing expertise. And hence how to make up for this institutional deficit of the Defence Ministry should seriously worry Modi, defence minister Rajnath Singh, and the country. Because the lack of technical and domain knowledge, familiarity with legal minutiae and drafting skills not only in MOD but in all of the Government of India, has resulted in defence TOT deals in the past costing India very, very dear. But that’s another topic altogether. Suffice it to say, GOI will have to get drafting experts from somewhere, but from where, is the big Question. Absent this, will India not again be fleeced, and get stuck with awful vendor-favouring TOT contract that reinforces India’s reputation as a sucker?
The desperate need is, therefore, for an agency of government that monitors and polices all contracts any ministry or department of government has with any foreign vendor/Company for anything that involves an outgo of hard currency. The Pentagon, for instance, has a College to train military officials in the procurement loops in the nuances of drafting country-specific, interest-specific, contracts and commercial agreements and methods of monitoring the delivery of contracted for items. When the skill-deficient MOD officials go up against professionally trained US and French civilian and military officials in negotiating the actual TOT deals which side, do you reckon, will have the upper hand?
President Emmanuel Macron will no doubt be smarmy, and try and trump Biden’s welcome in Washington for Modi with an even better show befitting the chief guest at the Bastille Day celebrations on July 13. Macron is lucky the Sans-coulottes — the underclass that initiated the French Revolution in 1789, and until three days ago virtually closed down Paris to protest the police shooting of an Arab youth, have stopped rioting, because cancelling the festivities would have been a bad start, considering how much Modi loves colour and spectacle combined with personal gestures of intimacy, and how much is at stake for the French defence industry.
That is because Macron means to push government-to-government deals not only for the Safran engine, but also for the Barracuda conventional submarine tech for the Indian Navy’s Project 75i boat, and for more IAF purchases of the Rafale combat aircraft to fill the Service’s 126 MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) requirement by whatever name it is called these days. So, Macron will try his damndest best to make and keep Modi happy! He will be conscious of the fact that the last time the Indian PM visited Paris in 2015, one of his predecessors, President Francois Hollande, came away with the foot-in-the-door deal for 36 Rafale aircraft.
——
But, what are the larger politico-strategic considerations of the three parties — India, the US and France, which will come into play when New Delhi decides specifically which aero-engine offer to accept?
The US government has finally come around to accepting, forty years after Reagan’s Defence Secretary Caspar Weinberger’s trip to New Delhi to convince the Indian government to buy American military hardware in a bid to displace Russia as India’s main arms supplier, that New Delhi will not budge if advanced tech was not transferred. And even then, the US hesitation in parting with, what it deems, its military high technology crown jewels is evidenced in the GE 414 jet engine deal excluding the single crystal turbine blade tech, etc. As far as, the Biden Administration is concerned the time is now to finally get India in its corner, and the situation with an America-friendly Modi needs to be taken advantage of. A deal like this, even with its shortcomings, many Indian experts contend, will cement mutual trust, and be the proverbial ‘Open Sesame’ for accessing more cutting edge American technologies. It is the means, many believe, to equalize the security situation with a tech-wise rampaging China. They apparently are unaware, however, that even NATO allies get to use only derated US equipment, so India cannot realistically expect to be favoured more than NATO member states.
Still, a fuller military supply relationship with the US can be expected more comprehensively to deepen the bilateral relationship and fetch India collateral benefits– bigger US investments in the Indian economy and infrastructure buildup, trade preferences, a leg-up in the fab and semiconductor design and production business, etc. Moreover, with AUKUS limping along and the military aspects of the India-US-Japan-Australia Quadrilateral stalled by India’s slow stepping on the issue, the security prospects of containing China in the Indo-Pcific look bleak. Washington hopes the real benefit to the US, following on the opening in the defence tech field, will accrue from New Delhi playing ball. The calculation is that substantive cooperation particularly in Space and semiconductor only nominally flagshipped by the 414 deal, will hand Washington what it has long craved — a hard lever to influence Indian foreign and security policies, a means it believes Moscow with its arms pipeline to India used to shape Indian actions, especially during the Cold War.
France is desperate for India to buy into the French defence industry for two reasons. One, that it will help France remain strategically relevant in the Indo-Pacific. And secondly, because of the hope that increased miltech closeness may lead, in the future, to more extensive use by the Indian military of its bases in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, and in its Indian Ocean island territories at St Pierre on Reunion Island which, in turn, will help defray Paris’ high costs of maintaining a military presence east of Suez.
France has the technology and ergonomically crafted weapons platforms to offer which Indian armed services appreciate and are partial to. Paris is rumoured to be ready to also pass on submarine nuclear power plant technology, etc. — the sort of tech that will simply not be available from the US for love or money. It is this tech Modi should extract from Macron. Force “sustainability and autonomy”, moreover, will be less of a concern with French-sourced armaments. But, to be fair, the C-17s, C-130s and the P-8I armed maritime recon aircraft have not so far faced difficulties with respect to servicing and spares support. But, frontline fighter aircraft are a different proposition altogether. And, in any case, India needs the assurance, which no US Administration of the day in Washington can provide, that the military goods India buys will not be subjected to ITAR. So that’s an insurmountable problem.
——-
A truly nationalist Indian government, however, would take a different tack. Instead of the binary choice his government is facing, Modi should remember why India’s uninvolved stance on the Ukraine conflict has raised India’s political standing and stock, secured it leverage with the US and the West and Russia, and why every major country wants to court and cultivate it. Not rushing into any one technology paddock is the way to go. The purchase of S-400 air defence system and the contract to buy 2 Grigoryvich-class stealth frigates and to produce two more in the Goa shipyard, has reassured Moscow. So the Russia end is holding up.
Hopefully, Modi will exploit to the fullest India’s being in a unique position to call the shots and carefully pick and choose as between US and French technologies and their direct and spillover industrial benefits just so the technology deficiencies of the country are rapidly filled — these being the missing elements that are required to build on capabilities already in the country that, in turn, will ensure progress towards achieving atmnirbharta. Signing up for prohibitively expensive deals for whole systems, as I have iterated over the years, is wasteful and makes neither economic nor national security sense.
India should instead show interest in just the Barracuda submarine design from France and then play off the French DCNS Company producing it against the German ThyseenKruppMarine firm peddling its HDW 214 submarine, and select tech not available in India, like optronic mast, say, from the leading US company, L3Harris. Biden could be asked to help out here by removing restrictions on the level of tech issues, which he will do to retain Indian goodwill. With tech deficits filled in this way, there won’t be tech voids, and the existing submarine production capability, starting with converting a basic design into engineering drawings, can take over. If Larsen & Toubro can manufacture strategic platforms like nuclear powered ballistic missile-firing submarines, building the techwise less demanding conventional subs shouldn’t be difficult. Likewise, specifically the French single crystal turbine blade tech can be bought for full and complete indigenisation to advance the indigenous Kaveri jet engine because GTRE (Gas Turbine Research Establishment), Bangaluru, it should be noted by Modi/PMO, has already successfully tested and developed single crystal blades for helicopters. The Kaveri jet engine is the future of Indian combat aviation, not a new Safran engine for Indian use.
This is the way to proceed. But this methodology of buying bits and pieces of technology and integrating them with the in-country design, development and industrial capability and process will, of course, be opposed by the three Services. They will come up with hundreds of reasons why such an approach is risky and produce unreliable armament systems, and why buying the Barracuda submarine whole, the Rafale whole, the F-18/Rafale-M carrier aircraft whole, and this whole and that whole will be in the country’s national interest. 60 years of such thinking has reduced India to a pitiable technology and arms dependency. The crux of the issue is the Indian military’s unwillingness to trust indigenous technology and wholly homegrown weapons systems. There’s a simple solution for removing any such resistance: Fire the top echelons of the military leadership that doesn’t accept this new method of procuring armaments and military technology. The rest of the cadres will get the message and fall in line.
One wishes the Modi sarkar will show guts and wisdom and, keeping atmnirbharta firmly in mind, make the right choices. That will mean going against the imports-driven thinking of the myopic Indian policy establishment and military. There’s a price to pay for atmnirbharta, of course, and the nation is prepared to pay it. It needs Indian leaders to put rhetoric into practice and implement atmnirbharta on a warfooting, and not just yap about it.
India’s not accepting the 414 deal will not be a killer and will not affect the US fab/semiconductor deal, nor will not buying whatever Macron has to offer in an aggregated form, if the Modi government simulataneously ups its game on the economic front: Stops talking about administrative reforms and speedily simplifies the regulatory mess relating to land acquisition and labour laws that continues to discourage and deter Foreign Direct Investment and Western and Asian Companies from relocating their manufacturing units en masse from China to India. Such an Indian reform will end up freeing India, the US, Europe and the rest of the world from the Chinese supply chain stranglehold and even win Modi the world’s gratitude.
On the arms front, it should be made clear to the US and France, that India proposes to go in this new direction by buying specific technologies, and never again whole systems or weapons platforms, and that the sooner they accept this new way of India conducting its procurement business, the better their prospects of selling what India wants. India succeeded with this approach — “the technology mission mode” — in Space systems, Missiles, nuclear weapons — when no foreign technology could be secured from anywhere. No further evidence is needed to prove this approach will work just as well with respect to every conventional military-use system.
Security Wise 
Email from Dr V Siddhartha, former science & technology adviser to Defence Minister
Thu, 6 July at 1:30 pm
Re:
“To prevent France and Safran/Snecma from again playing us for fools, the contract the Indian government signs should be so tightly drafted by the Indian Ministry of Defence (MOD) — something it is actually incapable of doing if previous contracts with foreign vendors are any guide that have favoured foreign vendors at every turn when it came to realising full ToT (Transfer of Technology) — that it will list, in the minutest technical detail, every technology ranging from every small component to big assemblies, inclusive of critical tech, such as single crystal turbine blades, etc. and an iron-clad time table for tech transfer that will be followed — according to which each technology will be transferred to the fullest extent to the designated Indian agency, and by which date — with no let, leave, latitude or flexibility in any provision or clause that could permit Safran to wriggle out of contractual commitments”
Correct.
But, for this MoD will need to be humble enough to hire as consultant …
VS
On Thu, 6 Jul 2023 at 13:45:
You are such a tease, Sid! GOI and its agencies are happy to be humble and hire, who else, McKinsey, Boston Group… That’s not who you have in mind. So, who?
Bharat
V Siddhartha
Thu, 6 July at 3:07 pm
.. I only said GoI should be humble; did not say they should self-humiliate!
I meant individuals who know our scientific community well so as to tap their expertise to ensure “the minutest (technological) detail”
E.g. Heat treatment furnace temperature cycle to be set semi-manually depending on the infrared signature obtained on a Raman spectrograph,
calibrated at NPL, Delhi (not at Safran, France), even if it is procured from a third party that supplies Safran, BUT the guarantee will still be that
of Safran … etc.
VS
Professor,
How the U.S. treats India will almost entirely be dependent on how big a threat China is. As long as China expands its economy and continues to modernise its military, you can bet that the U.S. will support India in its military modernisation. The stakes are just too high for it.
On the other hand, if peak China is true and its economy is currently much smaller, and/or declining, many of the things you say could become true.
But there is one more thing that will impact US behaviour. Its own capabilities. From what I’m reading, US military manufacturing capabilities have significantly diminished in the last thirty years. For example, there is only one munitions factory in Missouri that makes ammunition for the army compared to five 30 years back.
Additionally, there are five million people of Indian origin in the U.S., and the U.S. relies on them not just for corporate governance, but also R&D. India can, should and has leveraged them in the past for favourable policies. And the recent INDUS-X arrangement proposes to increase this people aspect for tech development and mentorship. This is India’s soft power that should not be underestimated.
What matters most in the end is India’s own growth and capacity build its own miltech. Many of its markets are small and many of its industries underdeveloped. There are also issues of lack of ambition, under confidence and just lack of knowledge and skills. Until these aspects change substantially, India will always be at risk of being at the beck and call of other powers.
Amit@ — Don’t overstate the US-based NRIs and Indian-origin Americans as leverage. Have lived long enough in the US to know that most of them in strategic positions are more Gung-ho American than, say, Biden is!
Professor,
You lived in the US at a time when the Indian American population was much lower and had acquired a lot less power than they have in recent years. The attitudes of Indians living here has changed significantly in the past few decades. Those who migrated in the 60s and 70s are different from those who migrated in the 90s and 2000s.
Of course US citizens have taken oaths to protect the U.S. constitution. And they are also a diverse bunch with diverse opinions. But enough of them are supportive of strong US-India relations. And there are NRIs who also help by sending money and going back to India to teach, do research or work after having acquired new skills here.
Let me give some examples. A CS grad from IITM is now a distinguished professor at MIT and the Chairman and CTO of an autonomous vehicle start up, which has become a unicorn. One of my own classmates, recently raised $350M for a chip thermal management start up and is CTO/Founder. Do you think that these people will not engage with India if business conditions are right there? Sunder Pichai maybe a U.S. citizen, but Google is investing $10B in AI in India.
There are many who write in these columns jumping up and down claiming how NRIs/IAs do nothing. India should get out of the mind set that others should be responsible for helping it grow out of poverty and achieve great power status. The primary responsibility is of Indians. The diaspora is one of the tools in India’s toolkit, though not the primary one. But one area where the diaspora helps is in managing US expectations and working towards positive outcomes. This is not an overstatement.
Email from Captain Jawahar Bhagwat, IN (Retd)
Thu, 6 July at 5:02 pm
Dear Sir,
Greetings!
Thank you for sharing this excellent article. Could not agree with you more.
CAG needs to carry out an audit of the so-called TOT acquired by MDL and other industries after the Scorpene contract. MDL needs to answer the question. Why can’t India build it’s own conventional submarines??? Any shipbuilder with so many contracts since 1985 (HDW contract) would have had its own design bureau and established vendor chain by now.
Where is the offset clause in civil airline contracts??? Scindia and company are just following in the league of Praful Patel who ensured the death of Air India. It is a national disgrace just like the Scorpene contract and its aftermath. No progress was made on joint development of civil multi-transport aircraft with Russia.
The Kaveri gas turbine project is going on since 1996. Any accountability???
What is the level of indigenisation in the Brahmos project?
CAG needs to be tasked with audit of these projects also.
Just like you brought out in your book, the armed forces should be clearly told that there will be an import holiday for at least 10 years. DRDO also needs to be held accountable or fired. Use the timelines achieved by China in their respective projects (all available in the public domain). Our foreign policy needs to align accordingly.
Best regards,
Jawahar
The key deal that is going to signed in Modi’s upcoming visit will be that of Critical pumpjet propulsion for our future fleet of SSN’s.The French, however , do not deserve an iota of more trust than the Americans.In any case, the idea of letting these two play each other off is perfect.While there a plethora of instances in which the French have scammed and milked untold billions from us(like the GTRE-Snecma deal you mentioned), the Rafael deal is simply in a class of its own.They sold us some 36 odd 4th generation aircraft worth no more than two squadrons, for a staggering $10 billion.Anybody with even half a brain cell would have died with laughter at this folly of the GoI and MoD.The only reason why this deal went through was because of exceptional pressure from the IAF top brass.A certain Western air command chief was the head of the whole Rafael procurement program.There is not an iota of doubt that this individual and his close associates were generously provided with the proverbial “wine,woman and wealth”.
Unless and until, such internal parasites located at the top of our establishment mercilessly eliminated, there is not going to be much progress.These “generals” deserve to be hanged from meat hooks just like how Hitler dealt with his unruly officer corps in the aftermath of the 20th July plot orchestrated by Count von Stauffenburg.
I still haven’t understood as to how the Rafael is better than the humble single-engine Tejas Mk1A? The former is a 4 decade old design with a 75 KN engine and lacks absolutely critical SEAD/DEAD capabilities of any kind.As it stands, it has a net zero chance of getting past the export variant S-400’s the Chinese have deployed at the LAC.At the same time, the Tejas Mk1A is made largely of state of the art carbon-fiber material and boasts better RCS than Rafael, it too has an AESA radar and 150 km range BVRAAM(Astra Mk1/Mk2).It’s only problem is range by virtue of its small size.
Why waste money in buying any weapon? Why not train our soldiers in the art of using stones as weapons, nail studded clubs, sticks etc. After all Indian army displayed its preference for medieval era gladiatorial combat during its last (mis) adventure.
Good article but too critical as it leaves out the internal negotiation factors that our own AirForce presents now and then with changing requirements.
Also, the article should have been a 3 way comparison and not just 2 of US and France but also of RollsRoyce engine which is being offered with complete ToT before anyone and with no strings attached(almost). Also RR engine is the best one with the best hot core technology. Am wondering why everyone is ignoring it?
Previously during Congress and coalition governments time. Middleman and retired army personnel used to act as arm brokers and earn hefty sums as commissions.
Since 2014 Modi has replaced the aforementioned category and acts as the sole decision maker. The foreign companies have to deposit the commission money in P.M. care fund, which is not even open for any RTI or audit 🤔
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is due to make a four-day visit to China from Thursday, has warned against breaking economic ties between Washington and Beijing.
“I think we gain and China gains from trade and investment that is as open as possible, and it would be disastrous for us to attempt to decouple from China,” she said, during an appearance before Congress last month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66093114
Haha so much for Modi Bhakts uttering about India replacing China. Dream on. Just check the annual trade between China and USA. before talking nonsense.
thank you for the article
Professor,
You give many good suggestions for miltech negotiations with the U.S. and France. However, your comment about the Indian military desiring ‘phoren’ materiel has a lot to do with the state of the defence industry in India. None of the Indian OEMs has produced top notch equipment on time. The LCA Tejas is still languishing in delays even though limited progress is being made. The OFB (short for Oh F….g Bs!) couldn’t even make artillery ammunition which had retarded ATAGs development. The list is endless.
If you have to defend the country then what option does the military have? You have to import! To say that the entire military is corrupt would be a load of bovine scat! The fact is that the Indian defence industry, which has largely consisted of PSUs has not gained the confidence of the armed forces. In spite of many military people actually transferring to these very PSUs to Program Manage key programs and providing all kinds of support.
Still, I see some hope, as things seem to be changing. It has to be driven by political leadership, which is happening now. So the results may appear in five to ten years. Till then go ahead and import, and negotiate well. And stop complaining about imports!
Amit@ — No one can produce “top notch” military equipment off the bat. Top notch becomes available when indigenous efforts are allowed to progress through design and manufacture of not so good items to serviceable products to top notch. This is common sense and the path China and all countries intent on self-sufficiency followed. It is the Indian military and the Indian govt that don’t get it.
Professor,
You have interacted with the military much more and likely have a better sense for how much the military is to blame for lack of indigenous weapons development programs. But for someone looking at India’s defense industry from the outside, I would find it hard to trust the PSUs to develop even sub standard equipment on time. It’s just a scary thought!
To fix this political leadership is required and hopefully the import control lists have the needed impact.
Amit@ –Have been advocating for 30-odd years for the private sector to have a major role, and to have it lead integrated R&D and production programmes with DPSU in support and DRDO acting as DARPA innovating tech and then licensing it to pvt sector for production. To make it all viable have suggested that private defence industry should in this setup be encouraged to market their wares worldwide from the getgo, with profit as incentive. Read my 2015 ‘Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)’ for details on this integrated def industrial model.
The F414 variant you are groping at is EPE variant and NOT EDE one. EPE variant gives 20% more thrust by sacrificing a bit of engine life — EDE offers more reliability or durability. Its funny you can not get it right.
Secondly neither EPE nor EDE has been certified ever so its more of a science project now and less of a product. So if India goes for either it will be a good time before the engine is available.
Lastly Where did you get this idea about 20% being critical? This deal is bringing the use of Blisk manufacturing in turbines to India. That alone is worth all the expenses. Blisk removes the issues like blade throwing — something that has plagued Indian turbine development for way too long. It combines blades and disk into a single piece called blisk.
Ajay@ — For EDE variant, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric_F414. Remember any India-produced jet engine is realistically a decade away, so we should plan for the engine that will be current then. The interim Indian need is being met by an imported GE 414. The enhanced performance engine (EPE) so far has been given to the Philippines for their F-18s.
Single crystal turbine blade (SCTB) better than Blisk because it is stronger, lighter, and more (25,000 hours) durable. (https://www.americanscientist.org/article/each-blade-a-single-crystal#:~:text=By%20eliminating%20grain%20boundaries%2C%20single,a%20higher%20melting%20point%20temperature.)
Why SCTB tech in 20% nontransferrable? Because that is not in the GE package.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/drdo-scientist-shared-sensitive-information-with-pakistani-operative-for-intimate-relations-says-ats-charge-sheet-101688757009416.html.
The details of this case are unbelievably outrageous, albeit it also confirms that the Agni-VI is in very advanced stages of development and should be tested anytime soon, hopefully providing us with global strike capability.Even when armed with this crucial Intelligence, there is little to nothing pak can do about it owing to its absolutely non-existent domestic industrial base.Pakis are only good for doing paint jobs on JF-17 and assembling together chinese provided parts into ballistic missiles and fission bombs.Pakis are still dependant on chinese imports of solid rocket fuel for their “domestic” ballistic missile program.In fact, they are a nation which cannot build basic tractor engines on their own and are totally dependent on wheat imports and IMF philanthropy for clinging onto dear life.The real problem of course is, ISI sharing this intel with Chinese MSS and PLA military Intelligence.
Examples MUST be made.This Kurulkar should be hanged, if possible. Irrevocable death penalty must be added to the Official Secrets Act.Provisions for public hanging should be included if an accused’s crimes are particularly damaging(as in this case).There must be examples to deter the civilian babudom as well as senior army and IAF officers, who no better than their civilian counterparts.
Ayush@ — Relax and cool your jets. How much truth have you ever shared on Tinder? If China and Pakistan base their intelligence on horny ramblings of scientist, then let them be.
Dear Mr Karnad,
Much of your article is laced with needless sarcasm, undue criticism and unrealistic theories.
example – aircraft deals by Tata and Indigo are deals by Private companies unlike Chinese companies, teh govt cannot step in a tell them what to do. Further when you talk of leveraging what alternatives do these companies have besides ordering from airbus or boeing? its a take it pr leave it situation. if teh govt could it would have, atleast this govt.
And play off the French DCNS Company producing it against the German ThyseenKruppMarine firm peddling its HDW 214 submarine? sir, seriously? with all due respect! Those companies are world leaders in what they do and have the market, the tech edge and the financial muscle to unilaterally simply walk away from tenders which do not entirely suit them and do you seriously think tkm will bend over if you tell them ” else the contract will go to naval grp”?
Karan@ — The short point about commercial airliner sales: GOI has never leveraged the growing Indian market for aircaft production tech.
The conv sub market is small, valuable, and hotly contested is why India can play off vendors against each other for the best deal, which again GOI doesn’t do.
Mugambo khushh hua;
https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/foxconn-dumps-19-5-bln-vedanta-chip-plan-in-blow-to-india-8824066/
India replacing China 😆😆😆
Brijraj@ — Do you realize that Foxconn doesn’t “make” its own high-end chips and has zero experience whatsoever as far as fabs are concerned.STMicroelectronics is going to take Foxconn’s place.Moreover, Vedanta announced 100% stake in the JV with Foxconn, so this move was only natural and unsurprising.
@ Ayush-
The Foxconn-Vedanta venture was among three entities seeking the incentives for semiconductor manufacturing. The other contenders were a consortium called ISMC, which includes Tower Semiconductor of Israel as a technology partner, and Singapore-based IGSS Ventures. Both committed investments of $3 billion each.
But none of the three entities received government approval for incentives.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Foxconn-withdraws-from-19.5bn-chip-JV-with-India-s-Vedanta
Doing business in India is very difficult due to no sense of time, highly prevalent corruption and red tapism prevalent at every level from Peon to the P.M.
but deal with GE is already signed , no? I dont think modi govt will be in position to cancel deal with level of pressure it will have from US
Modi asked for too much donation in his P.M. care fund that’s why Foxconn ran away.
It’s really amazing that inspite of Chinese establishment treating India like shit, Indian government doesn’t even have the guts to formally recognize Taiwan as an independent nation.
But Foxconn is bidding for an independent presence in India with 2-3 fabs, per newsreports.
Professor,
One must understand that commercial decisions are based on market size and profitability criteria primarily. The Indian market was $16-$18 B as I recall last year. The global market was ~$550B. So the Indian market is around 3% of the global. In 2030, it is expected to be $65B out of ~$1T, which will still be less than 7% of global.
The size and complexity of the technology that will be deployed in India, will necessarily be limited by the small size of the global pie. India should not be under any illusions! Unless India develops technology for the world and exports its chips! But then, be prepared to compete with the likes of Korea, Taiwan, Japan, the U.S. and some European countries apart from China.
Given that these fabs cost ~$20B a pop, I don’t know if India will ever be self sufficient for its needs in the next 15 years! There’s a lot of hype that floats in Indian media. The reality can be different. I would watch for more details on investments in India.
Professor,
While the engine deal is a big deal for Tejas manufacturing, one must not overlook the importance of the MQ-9 deal and the logistics and communications agreements India has with the US, Australia and France. 16 MQ-9s each with a range of 1100 miles plus and 1.7ton weapon capacity is a significant boost to India’s ISR and anti ship offensive capability.
India can also use Reunion island, Diego Garcia, Cocos Islands in the southern Indian Ocean. With listening posts in Madagascar, Mauritius and Maldives, and the building of a deep sea port in the Andaman Nicobar islands, India’s reach in the IOR is now significant. There is also a base in Duqm in Oman. Plus the recent agreement with the US to repair ships in Goa allows for the US also to counter the Chinese in the IOR more effectively.
Additionally, from what I understand, India will have true AI based ISR which integrates all sources of data from its sensor assets and provide actionable intelligence by 2030. It’s 75% done apparently now.
All this while the Chinese still don’t have real blue ocean capabilities. This is a significant development for India.
I understand that India also has an agreement with Indonesia for aircraft repairs. Plus some naval agreements with Singapore and Philipines. All this adds to some real capabilities. While the Air Force and Army have some real capability building to do, the Indian Navy is forging ahead in the IOR.
According to data from the Indian government, as many as 2,783 foreign companies and their subsidiaries ceased operations in India between 2014 and November 2021, including some notable ones such as Cairn Energy, Holcim, Daiichi Sankyo, Carrefour, Henkel, Harley Davidson and Ford, media reported.
Specifically, the business environment in India has long been one of the biggest concerns for foreign investors.
India is too much hype with very little substance. More than half the population is happy getting a few Kgs of free wheat and rice every month from the government.
Jalebibaii tuu kaun deshh saii aaii?
Spot on comment by Jalebibaii. Narayan Rane is from Maharashtra who later formed his own Harya Narya gang is the minister of small and medium industries in Modi cabinet. So much for the quality of this self proclaimed ‘Vishvguru’s’ cabinet.
2783 companies leaving India in the time frame mentioned by Jalebibaii means around 347 foreign companies leaving India every year. What an achievement by Modi 😆. His government is only about singing self praises nothing else.
While this is largely true, it’s also true that progress is being made. But at least the jalebis and rabdi are made well! One can get good jalebis and Rabdi across the Radcliffe line too. Or so I’ve heard!
The names in this comment section are lit af. This seems like an episode from yes prime minister where we enter Europe to play the Germans off from the French. Do you think government can influence private sector to buy tech for example Embraer was up for sale but HAL didnt take the offer. But may be some corporates could have been influenced to buy? Also is there a way to get around sanctions through companies in Mauritius for example.
Private sector majors would happily buy out Embraer and Companies like that fallen on hard times. But they are not in it for charity — they have to be assured of custom from the Indian government and airlines in India that such an investment would pay off. They got no such assurances.
Dr. Karnad, a historical question for you. Do you think the US dropped the second bomb on Nagasaki due to the fear of Marshal Vasilevsky’s historic Manchuria blitzkrieg grabbing all of China? In fact, at the time of the final Japanese capitulation, the Soviets were approaching Port Arthur at breakneck speed due to the fear of the US Navy grabbing it first. In less than ten days, the Soviets had utterly annihilated the million-strong Japanese Kwantung army, conquered Manchuria, Korea, the South Sakhalin Islands, and the Kuril Islands, and were on the verge of invading very lightly defended Hokkaido! Just compare the phenomenal Soviet blitzkrieg in mainland China to the US slugfest in Okinawa. If the Japanese had continued to resist for a month or so, the Soviets would have certainly grabbed all of Northern and Eastern Han China. I believe that is why the US wanted to force a Jap capitulation at the earliest.
Ayush@ — Your contention certainly has merit. But the reason for 2nd A-bombing (of Nagasaki) was to drive home the fact of the decisive weapon. The context for this was the fanatical fighting spirit shown by the Japanese troops in the harsh island to island battles in Okinawa, Guam and other Pacific islands causing quite considerable casualties. It had sapped the strength of the US Marines and the very idea of an invasion of the main Japanese island chain had became both politically and militarily unpalatable. So the premium was on ending the war quickly and the A-bombings served that purpose.
“Convincing the aboriginal barbarians about the power and profusion of the bomb” is the standard American narrative. However, it has been proven time and again that it is absolute naivety to take American claims at face value. In any case, the scale of the Soviet advance and the swiftness with which the mighty Kwantung army folded undoubtedly baffled the American brass. The Americans had genuinely expected the Soviets to get bogged down in the Manchurian topography, and fight a “ridge to ridge” rat war like what they did in Okinawa. Besides, Okinawa was certainly not the greatest last stand in the second world war.
The real campaign in which one side demonstrated fanaticism and self-sacrifice unparalleled in the annals of history was incontrovertibly East Prussia. Here, the half-a-million-strong German army Group Center along with 200,000 additional Volkstrumm cannon fodder engaged in an uneven, animalistic slugfest against two hardened, blood-thirsty Soviet fronts(2nd and 3rd Belorussian). The fighting in East Prussia embodied the unparalleled ferocity and barbarity of the Eastern Front. The vengeful Soviets were left foaming at the mouth due to the tenacity of German resistance and unsurprisingly gave absolutely no mercy to the ultra-conservative province, resulting in a myriad of unspeakable atrocities. The Nazis used the entire civilian population of the province as hostages(by preventing civilian evacuations) to motivate the men to fight till the bitter end. The Soviets used mind-blowing quantities of firepower to overcome the five layers of defensive belts and countless strong points. In fact, in Marshal Vasilievsky’s words, it was the most expensive campaign in history, in terms of consumption of ammunition. The Red Army used a staggering 15,000 railway carriages of ammunition, three times what they used in their Titanic Operation Bagrartion! which undoubtedly decided the outcome of the second world war. Konigsburg surrendered only after some 3,000 Soviet bombers and artillery on the ground delivered a truly unprecedented cannonade.
The fact is, the US has never fought a real peer enemy on the ground. Back in Normandy, the singular German 7th Army held back an army of a million British-Americans supported by 20,000 odd combat aircraft for nearly two months. They nearly folded completely when the Germans struck with a strike force one-third of the size they used in Kursk, and with zero air cover, during the battle of the Bulge. It’s no wonder that top US officials were until recently talking(before the catastrophic counteroffensive) about conquering the prized harbor of Sevastopol. Most of them are completely oblivious to the fact that Crimea is linked to the mainland only through the extremely narrow Isthmus of Perekop and the marshes of Genichesk. These are easily defensible territories and any “D-Day” style American amphibious assault will only result in a massacre of tens of thousands of Yankees as the overcrowded beachheads would be too juicy a target for Russian tactical nukes. Again, that is if the US Navy and Marine Corps can get past the wall of Anti-ship missiles.
Bharatiya faujj kaeyy karnammey;
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/cbi-books-military-engineering-services-officers-corruption-case-8854055/
What’s new in this? These folks are nothing but the proverbial small fry.I would only pay attention to reports which announce say the arrest of all officers involved in the Arjun tank trials/Rafale deal.
With such attitudes why would foreign companies set up shop in this land of religious fanatics;
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/complaint-after-hindu-outfits-accuse-korean-eateries-in-gurgaon-of-serving-beef-8847227/?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM=&utm_source=Taboola_Recirculation&utm_medium=RC&utm_campaign=IE