[GCAP Vs FCAS]

Every military procurement deal is a boondoggle. Apparently the Ministry of Defence thinks the Indian government has money to burn, and that the Indian taxpayer will uncomplainingly fund the armed services’ procurement excesses. There has been an unending series of exorbitantly priced defence buys in the last few years which make little sense, taken singly or together, do not follow the tech trends, and are completely oblivious of where warfare is headed — it is towards vast numbers of small, cheap and mobile drones and autonomous weapons as the military successes by Ukraine against Russia and Iran’s against the combined might of the US and Israel have shown.

Anytime there’s an announcement of a new fighter plane deal or of an investment in one, I despair. It is invariably yet another decision in a time-tested pattern of the Indian Air Force buying into the wrongest thing, choosing the most expensive fighting platform option available, at the wrong time and just when manned aerial warfare is becoming extinct, and when the atmnirbharta/self-reliance programme needs desperately to be rescued from going down the drain.

So here we are — the great Rajnath Singh, who doesn’t tire of yakking about atmnirbharta, and the Defence Ministry he “leads”, once again indulging the foresight-less IAF’s fetish for flying blind in clear light. On Vayu Bhavan’s plea, the Defence Ministry endorsed the service’s outlandish demand for a still more “exquisite” aerial weapons platform that the country can acquire by joining one of the two European consortia developing a 6th generation fighter aircraft! There’s the GCAP (Global Combat Air Programme) with the UK-Italy-Japan and the Dassault-led FCAS (Future Combat Air System) involving France, Germany and Spain. A more spendthrift and straight forwardly foolish and foolhardy decision is hard to conceive, even as the idiot electronic and print media and commentariat in the country do their customary wahs, wahs, and genuflect before the wisdom shown by all concerned!

When one thought the Indian Air Force couldn’t go any lower than with the Rafale deal, which pretty much killed off the Tejas project, it did. It plunged lower by seeking participation in GCAP/FCAS that will write finis to the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft programme (AMCA). With the kind of latitude allowed the IAF by a mindless defence ministry and government to buy what it wants from wherever it wants, no surprise the Indian Navy too wanted in on the goodies, the fun buys! So it decided on the Rafale Marine carrier aircraft — this being its contribution to the Indian military’s dive into the depths of despond, at a time when the 2-engined Tejas designed for carrier operations had made it through all the test trials, and was on a fast-paced induction schedule into fleet service. Like the Air HQ, the NHQ too, did not do the right, nationalist, and patriotic thing. The cost of this folly? Rs 63,000 crore ($7.5 billion) for 26 Rafale Marine (Rafale-M) carrier fighter jets at $289 million for each plane WITHOUT weapons!

There’s no price tag mentioned for joining GCAP/FCAS yet, but it is not hard to extrapolate from the by now familiar figures for the most recent deal — Rs 3.25 lakh crore ($40 billion) for what was called the “Make in India” initiative for 114 Rafale aircraft, 18 off the shelf, 96 srewdrivered in the world’s leading aircraft screwdrivering facility — HAL. That amounts to Rs 2,850 crore EACH for an antiquated 4.5 generation fighter aircraft that went up in Sindoor and, for its troubles, was promptly shot down by the Chinese copy of the 4th-generation Israeli Lavi, the J-10 flown by the Pakistan Air Force! If this sad warplane, Rafale — exactly the same generation as Tejas but far less agile, costs so unimaginably much, how much more will joining GCAP or FCAS cost?

An initial total programme estimate for GCAP was $96 billion, which figure has escalated to something over $120 billion. Of this sum, Italy’s most recent estimated contribution by workshare and investment is $21.8 billion, leaving Japan and the UK to pick up $50 billion each. The Italians and the Brits are keen to water down their contribution by getting India in — when there’s an unsaleable product, the wisdom in the international arms bazar is to go to the Indian military — every foreign defence industry’s saviour! But GCAP is on an accelerated drive because Japan, fearing the Chinese Air Force, which is unveiling new high-tech combat aircraft every other year, reportedly wants it on the flightline soonest as replacement for its Mitsubishi F-2. In the event, it is too late to rework the whole workshare and proportionate investments aspects. But GCAP states would be very happy, of course, for the IAF to buy their plane, but it will get it last after the charter members have met their requirements. But because entry into the project is unlikely, the GCAP option may be off but, theoretically, split 4 ways the Indian contribution to it, at first glance, would be around $30 billion.

Ah, we come now to the IAF and Indian Navy’s favourite supplier — France! The FCAS cost estimate is $117 billion. But it is on its last legs because France and Germany differ on the basics — France thinks it already has the Rafale platform design that can be fruitfully embellished with new tech and built on as the advanced FCAS. But Dassault is unwilling to share the source code for the baseline Rafale system with Germany, arguing that Germans have zero aircraft designing and development capability, and Berlin can’t do much better than shut up, ride pillion, and periodically fork up the Euros! Germany feels insulted as does Spain, which has produced the medium range transport plane C-295 that Tata are assembling in the country, but little else. Enter the winner of the INTERNATIONAL SUCKER title – (We have to win at something) India!

Typically when in doubt, France, and every other arms supplying country, rounds in on India — everyone’s best and most valued customer, that can be taken for a ride anytime! And rounding in on the armed service dearest to Paris’ heart after its own Armée de l’air re-labelled since 2020 as Armee de l’air et de l’espace — the Indian Air Force! Dassault is hoping it can rope India into financing this whole wretched enterprise even as Germany and Spain wisely decamp. To recap, the FCAS initial cost of $117 billion is expected to escalate in lifetime cost terms to somewhere between 300 billion Euros (or Rs 3,25,13,10,00,00,000) and ONE Trillion Euros (Rs 10,83,77,00,00,00,000) !!!!!!!!!!! Halve whatever the price tag, and that, conservatively speaking, will be India’s contribution! Think of this mindboggling sum and blanche! Who says India is a poor country? Look beyond the Potemkinised New Delhi, Narendra Modiji!

[Su-57]

If the IAF is so eager for quickly stepping-up into the 5th-gen aircraft milieu, the Russian offer of its Sukhoi-57 seems reasonable, especially as it comes with complete transfer of source code, which will help finesse the Indian AMCA design and performance as well, and to integrate Indian-designed missiles into it, etc. Though let’s be clear: It is not a genuine stealth aircraft as it lacks the S-shaped engine ducts, say. But makes up for it by having recessed engine placement and an antiradar mesh on the fan-front. It can supercruise — go supersonic without afterburner, has endurance at 3,500km range (extendable to 4,500kms with external fuel tanks) and a 2-seat configuration (the IAF desires) for longrange strategic missions — useful considering the Service’s antipathy to a genuine strategic bomber — the Tu-160 White Swan with 13,500km range for non-stop 25-hour flying. Plus, importantly, the Su-57 (NATO codenamed “Felon”) has concealed in-built bomb-bays, so unlike the hideously expensive Rafale with weapons under-slung and on external wingpoints that would light up enemy radar like a Christmas tree at distance, it is relatively invisible. The 57’s radar cross section increases only for the moments the bays open for the weapon drop/release. And the entire deal will be far more affordable. And the IAF would have two mainline 5th gen+ aircraft — AMCA and Su-57 in its fleet. Politically, it will help correct the country’s foreign policy that has tilted so far US/West-wards there is near certainty of the country stepping voluntarily into America’s vassalage. See how India’s energy politics is hostage to Trump’s domestic political imperatives, highlighted by recent developments on the US-Iran war front.

It will make the Rafale completely redundant, and the deal for it can and should be cancelled. And if Rajnath Singh and the Defence Ministry have any military sense, which they don’t, the Rafale-Marine would be ditched as well, and trust reposed in the indigenous naval Tejas as the Indian Navy’s flag carrier fighter/strike aircraft.

Compared to the number of conflicts it has engaged in, post-1971, the IAF has had little to show by way of success. Its record of aerial kills is negative — it has lost more aircraft than it has downed enemy planes, as the first day (May 7) of last year’s Op Sindoor — 5 aircraft lost, or the 1st day of the Kargil conflict (two aircraft lost) in 1999, proved. (AP Singh can talk all the nonsense he wants about “12-15” Pakistan Air Force aircraft, including F-16s, the IAF supposedly shot out of the skies during Sindoor and, while at it, Air Chief Marshal, why not claim the destruction of the entire PAF fleet?! But he knows the score.)

But damned if the IAF does not have a very impressive record of killing home-designed and developed aircraft — the HF-24 Marut, HF-71/72/73, Tejas 1A, 2, and now the Chief of the Air Staff, ACM Aman Preet Singh, can proudly and symbolically mount the head of the AMCA in the officer’s mess on Zakir Hussain Marg, and gloat over another kill! Because, with over half a trillion dollars needing to be committed to FCAS prospectively where will the private sector consortium of L&T, Tata, & Bharat Forge — the finest in the country, tasked with designing, developing and producing the AMCA, get the money from? And with the attention diverted to the FCAS will the IAF ever actually buy any AMCAs when they are produced?

Fortunately, this horrendous GCAP/FCAS investment plan is so far only a paper demand by the Defence Ministry. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have to ultimately decide if pouring hard-earned Indian wealth after poor European investments is a good idea. Whosoever is advising him on these issues will, hopefully, suffer from a fit of common sense, and prevail on Modi to reject this IAF-Defence Ministry request outright, and get the Prime Minister to tell the IAF to live within the country’s means — a piece of counsel he may like to extend to the other chiefs of staff he meets periodically as well, and to the senior commanders of the three armed services he confers with annually.