[Trump: Sleeping through an “excursion” with bodybags]
Just as the Kremlin is unwilling still to own up to the conflict in Ukraine as a war, and is sticking with Putin’s initial phrase for it — “special military operation”, so coined to denote a small, swift, military action, Donald Trump is struggling to find the right label for the US’ joint misadventure with Israel in Iran. While the US “Secretary of War” Pete Hegseth has called it “war”, the US President, ten days into an armed affair that is far from over, has been reluctant to do so because calling any military hostilities war immediately enlarges the canvas and the nature of operations and, worse, raises expectations his government cannot meet. Hence, Trump has settled on calling it an “excursion”, having realised soon enough that his talk of regime change was so much hoo-ha that, short of landing massive American armies in Iran, is impossible to obtain.
And even then there’s no guarantee that the landed US forces will survive the intense firefights and close quarter guerilla fighting in attritional mode — something the Americans are loath to engage in — in the cities and in the Iranian countryside that over 31 Pasdaran (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) sub-regional headquarters with prepositioned stores have been preparing for. The Pasdaran are some 200,000 strong with a potential for unlimited manpower callup. Then there’s the Shia-ite theology of self-sacrifice and martyrdom to contend with. The Karbala syndrome — the exaltation of Hussain Ali’s death at the hands of the Umayad Caliph, Yazid, in 680 AD at the Battle of Karbala (in Iraq), which fuels the Pasdaran effort, is not to be taken lightly.
If the US military underestimated the “gooks” they were fighting in Vietnam, it may discover something equally chastening coming its way in Iran should Trump foolishly opt for a land war in a country twice as large as Iraq, which the US failed to keep in check after its ill-advised invasion in 2003. Given that Iran’s terrain is almost designed for mountain guerilla warfare of a kind that America lost in neighbouring Afghanistan not too long ago, Trump’s trumpeting his objective as successively “unconditional surrender”, “regime change” and having his choice selected as the next leader in Tehran was manifestly the wrong tack for him to take. “If Mr. Trump seeks escalation,” said Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi, tartly, “it is precisely what our Powerful Armed forces have long prepared for, and what he will get.” Trump has not repeated his patent nonsense lately, suggesting he may have seen the futility of setting such goals.
In any case, Trump’s excursion is getting pricey! According to US Congressional sources Op Epic Fury is costing America $890 million per day to prosecute, and the bill to-date for just the expended guided munitions and armaments exceeds $560 billion! This void will be a bonanza for the US defence industry to fill. But it is the bodybags coming home to grieving American families that is upsetting Trump’s plans. In wars, the US sports a dismal record — its only success being the 1990-91 Op Desert Shield (or, the 1st Gulf War). Honestly, the American society has no stamina for war — its muscularity being limited to beefy Hollywood stars wreaking havoc in action movies! So far the “butcher’s bill” of 7 dead and 140 injured American soldiers has been enough to unsettle US politics, with the media and the people starting to clamour for a pullout. Sympathetic media pundits are preparing the ground, arguing that because Iran has been militarily hurt, in many respects grievously, Trump can call it a victory and get the hell out. This last is round the corner because the media campaign is failing with MAGA’s mega influencers, like Joe Rogan, turning on Trump. What was supposed to be a quick in and out — a few days of decisive military strikes to bring Iran to its knees, is gradually taking a familiar course — an elongated military conflict that is impacting the global economy. With the Hormuz Strait now being mined by the Iranians, the US knows it is in for the long haul in a hard knuckle fight the American people have no will to sustain.
The real test, however, now looms for both the warring sides. Does Tehran and the new Mojtaba Khamanei dispensation think its military and the Pasdaran have squirrelled away sufficient quantities of guided munitions to keep the oil traffic through the narrow Hormuz Strait (23 miles at its narrowest) stalled? And then, for how long? Already the regional and international economies are tanking, with the oil, gas, and refining industries slowly grinding to a halt. If the Abadan oil refining complex and the oil storage and loading port at Kharg Island (able to handle 7 million barrels per day) have so far been spared Western strikes, Tehran too has desisted from taking out major refineries and tank farms in Saudi Arabia and in the Gulf. No one wants a world without West Asian energy. In fact, Trump warned Israel against hitting Iranian oil facilities again after it struck such an installation near Tehran. Keeping the Hormuz gateway closed is precisely Iran’s leverage, and Iran seems confident that it can keep it shut long enough to advantage it. The US offer of naval escorts for oil tankers through this Strait, isn’t the answer.
In this context, the Modi government’s considering the option of Indian navy ships escorting some 36 Indian-flagged tankers with India-bound oil stuck on either side of Hormuz is a perfectly silly and dangerous idea, particularly in light of Tehran’s pointed threats of attacking any crude-carrying ship. In fact, an Indian vessel would be a tempting target for Iranian missiles for many reasons. Providing Iranian naval ships and their crews safe haven in Indian ports will only get you so far with a Tehran that is caught up in a do or die struggle. A shot to disable an Indian ship would create a bilateral crisis, yes. But Tehran may deem this an acceptable price for signalling to bigger players its resolve to stop the oil traffic whatever it takes. Except, hitting an Indian vessel will be minus the danger of a US carrier group countering with a lethal response in case a western tanker is sunk. Therefore, which ever part of GOI thought up this damn fool idea — very likely MEA seeking to please Trump, the foreign policy reflex of the Indian government should be to stop being an “idiocracy” (a word coined by Tom Cooper, the Austrian military analyst of repute)! Does Prime Minister Narendra Modi want the Indian Navy to be the “canary in the coal mine” for the US? Really?!
Instead of its ships risking passage through Hormuz, Delhi should quadruple oil imports from the Sakhalin oil field that ONGC has equity in — a far simpler and obvious solution. It should herald a fullscale restoration of oil trade with Russia on a sustained and permanent basis, not subject to cut offs of energy ties everytime some Trump or his poodle barks in Washington. Had Modi not allowed Trump to walk all over him and told the US President off in no uncertain terms that good relations with America will not be at the expense of ties with Russia, an old and reliable friend, and that India buys Russian oil because it will always suit India’s purposes to do so, and that the US centrally requires India to be on its side in its rivalry with China, that trade with India and access to its vast market benefits America more, as does the flow of cheap skilled labour, it’d have silenced Trump. And a grateful and appreciative Putin would have sold oil pennies on the barrel. Now the country will have to pay through its nose for the Sakhalin/Siberian energy. But better oil from somewhere than no oil from anywhere. And it can make this as in the past a remunerative business by selling refined petroleum products to Western European countries who’d be less willing in the future to impose sanctions just because Trump wants it so.
In this respect, it may be noted that when the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, assuming a lofty attitude, told the American Press that America had “permitted” India to buy oil from Russia, there was NO immediate challenge from the MEA to say that the country’d damn well buy oil from where ever and whenever as dictated by national interest, and that Delhi did not need US permission or approval. That reaction came two days after it had become a hot political issue here.
How little regard Trump and his Administration have for Modi and India was clear when Washington failed to inform Delhi about the plan for one of its nuclear attack submarines to torpedo an Iranian missile destroyer, IRIS Dena, barely outside Sri Lankan waters, when it was returning to home base after participating in the Indian Navy’s International Fleet Review off Vishakhapatnam (Feb 15-25, 2026) and the MILAN 2026 maritime exercise with friendly navies hosted by the Indian navy. The Modi regime couldn’t have averted this incident on March 4, but to spare it the blushes, could have reasoned with the US Indo-Pacific Command, Honolulu, to postpone the action to when the vessel entered Iran’s near seas so as to link it up with Op Epic Fury — a not illogical ask. Instead, Dena sank with the Indian government making much of sheltering the other two ships in the Iranian flotilla, Lavan and Bushehr, with external affairs minister S Jaishankar, at the Raisina Dialogue, MEA’s annual poster event, apparently justifying the kill by pointing to the US and other foreign naval presence in Diego Garcia and elsewhere in the Indian Ocean region. Hegseth described the surprise attack as “quiet death”! 87 bodies of dead Iranian submariners were fished out and 32 sailors rescued. (https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/iris-dena-iran-israel-war-indian-ocean-caught-on-wrong-side-of-events-s-jaishankar-on-iranian-ship-sunk-by-us-11181112)
Israel may have good reasons to want Iran defanged militarily and nuclear-wise, and to get that chump, Trump, to activate the American strike wherewithal against Iran, thus distributing the work load and the risk. No doubt Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid it on thick about how easy it’d be for the Hero of Venezuela to depose the regime of the Ayatollahs, have some working stiff manage things for the West in Tehran, and position Trump, after Venezuelan oil (with Saudi and Gulf oil already in the American bag), to now also control the far superior grade oil and gas pumped out of Iran, and thereby hoist himself up as the true energy King of the World, or some such…! True to type Trump swallowed it whole and now finds himself up a creek.
Russia and China meanwhile couldn’t ask for a better turn of events. In stark terms, Russian oil is at a premium again and will stay that way for a good while yet, and the fact that two US aircraft carrier groups and huge air forces have been mustered to deal with Iran along with the redirection of logistics to the West Asian theatre, means a more desperate Kyiv being forced to husband its meagre military resources, and fewer American weapons to fight the Russians with. China, likewise, benefits from the US military forces in the Indo-Pacific being preoccupied with Iran — a mission that is fast depleting the American stock of guided munitions and long range missiles, and weakening the US’ military readiness profile in the Far East.
The seemingly scatter-brained Trump faces a no-win situation. Despite the Israeli and US onslaught, Iran has reportedly managed to preserve the bulk of its deadliest arsenal, made up entirely of indigenously designed and produced long range weapons systems — the Bavar 373 surface-to-air missile, and the 300km range Mehran air defence system operated by the Pasdaran. It means there will be more losses of American fighting assets, more casualties, and no easy wins for Trump to trumpet. Moreover, the longer the conflict the bigger the number of bodybags delivered back to the US, multiplying the political difficulties for Trump at home. He was, after all, elected in 2024, in part because he had promised “no more wars”.
In the event, with the November Congressional elections looming, the continuing Iran imbroglio will likely lose his Republican party majorities in the lower house and possibly even in the Senate. This is a certainty. As of January 2027 then, he will become a lame duck president and his usual theatrics will be of little avail. It is an end-state he wishes to avoid. So, if he isn’t already looking for a face-saving excuse to decamp from West Asia, he soon will. America’s reputation and credibility as partner and ally, or what little is left of them, being as usual in tatters after each such episode.
If no credible excuse comes his way and Hormuz remains bottled up and no oil flows, look for Trump to get out any way. He will invent some fiction for the US military to flee West Asia. It is something the American armed forces have had a lot of practice doing all over the globe in the last 70-odd years (Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan) and is good at — cutting and running from the battlefield!
TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) Trump, Zindabad!
Security Wise 
Prof Karnad,
1. Isn’t China one of the biggest buyers of Iranian oil? Are they going to benefit with the conflict going longer, and the straits of Hormuz being closed indefinitely?
2. Is there a land option for China to move oil from Iran via CPEC as an alternate route?
3. If Indian Navy escorts the India-flagged oil tankers, will Iran be really that short sighted to sink an Indian ship? Knowing fully well that Lavan and Bushehr are anchored in Indian waters, and can be taken hostage by the Indian navy? Notwithstanding the enormous international bad blood it will generate. Of course I would assume that Indian Navy will not do such a thing without an understanding with Iran.
Would love your views on this.
1) China gets its oil from two Siberian gas and oil pipelines; And can negotiate a higher volume flow
2) see above
3) two warships in custody does not equal a larger strategic objective
News just coming from Press conference:
Air Force General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated on Tuesday that the US Joint Force is entering the 11th day of “Operation Epic Fury” with a primary focus on three critical military objectives.The mission remains centred on neutralising Iran’s ability to threaten U.S. interests and regional partners through a systematic degradation of its strategic assets.
The first priority is the continued destruction of Iranian ballistic missile and drone capabilities to prevent further attacks on the United States and other nations throughout the region.
The second objective involves striking the Iranian Navy and its operational capacities, specifically targeting its ability to sustain movements or blockades through the Strait of Hormuz.
Finally, the Joint Force is deepening its operations against Iran’s military and industrial base to ensure the regime cannot project power outside its borders or threaten American interests for years to come.
Your views on these three objectives, sir?
US failed to achieve its main objective of regime change. They managed to injure regime with killing of top commanders and leaders including Kamenei, damage military capability, hit infrastructure, collateral damage to civilians. As per Omani sources Iran agreed for almost all demands of US and it was foolish on part of US to go for war even after this. Going for war due to Israeli pressure and possible diversion for Epstein scandal cost US many dollars and loss of trust on US. Nothing big achieved other than hit and run.
Gulf nations(biggest loosers) may be cursing themselves to have these type of security arrangement with US where they are used like launchpads and face destruction from US enemy like Iran.It is a big economic loss and irreparable loss of investor confidence along with import/export problems.
For Israle it is a miscalculation to think they can change Mullah regime by these attacks. Huge infrastructure damage to Israle. Israle has damaged Iran more but anyway they are a failed nation even before attack. It is a time for Israle to think if they want to be in a state of war for ever.
For Russia, huge gift from Trump.Now world cannot live without Russian oil and gas.
For China, Some loss like under performance of Chinese military equipment but they are fine as long as Mullah regime survives this war.
For Pakistan, Islamic NATO dream turned out be nightmare.
For India, reducing Russian oil intake to strike a deal with Trump turned out be bad idea. Sinking Iranian Ship near Galle coast shows reality check of strategic partnership with US. India should never allow US bases in its backyard at any cost to avoid get caught in crossfire.
For Iran, huge economic loss,infrastructure damage,loss of top leadership,damage to military capabilities,fullstop for nuclear weapon ambitions,end of muslim brotherhood for all practical purpose,exponential increase of enemies in west asia, uncertain future(never know when will new US Israeli strikes will resume even if ceasefire achieved).
Only positive is survival of regime against all odds, show of Iranian strength in drone and missile capabilities despite shortfall in other areas.
For rest of the world inflation and pain due to this Tugalaq Trump
Mr. Karnad,
Couple of thoughts here:
1- regarding Indian market access. India has had a long term structural trade deficit issue for decades now . no matter what free trade agreements get signed, there are limits to which this might benefit any foreign players despite the optics.. the trade deficit issue just simply never gets resolved and RBI always has to keep a close watch on the forex situation due to limited flexibility in exchange rates /capital controls. that’s the reason they have not really allowed full convertibility of the INR similar to the Singapore dollar, Canadian dollar ,Australian dollar etc… adding insult to the injury is the comments from Christopher Landau a few days ago at Raisina where he explicitly says that US wont be making the same trade mistakes with India.
2-I am not sure the Russia may want to keep piling on rupee balances when they are unable to utilize it in their foreign trade due to convertibility issues. .
Email from Dr V Siddhartha, former Science Adviser to the Defence Minister
Tue, Mar 10 at 8:33 PM
Re: “It should herald a full scale restoration of oil trade with Russia on a sustained and permanent basis, not subject to cut offs of energy ties every time some Trump/poodle barks in Washington.”
….You seem to forget that the BJP is a trader’s party, whose individual members have prospered from the U.S. market: Traders fund the party. That community will tell Modi to do whatever it takes: “adjust karlo please”– never mind izzat — to supplicate the U.S. on tariffs. On TV commentators complaints of “this is not Satyameva Jayate” and “we have been diminished”. Yeah “diminish-viminish” kya heh? Mujhe mera market vaapus dilvado.
Tariffs have worked. First leader heading in Deccan Herald a fortnight or so ago on India-US trade negotiations: “America Matters”
Re: ” The Modi regime couldn’t have averted this incident on March 4, but to spare it the blushes, could have reasoned with the US Indo-Pacific Command, Honolulu, to postpone the action to when the vessel entered Iran’s near seas so as to link it up with Op Epic Fury — a not illogical ask.”
The U.S. would have treated any such ask with contempt. Would have said “sure O.K.” and then gone ahead done exactly as it intended to, quite deliberately to embarrass India — that was/is the intention of this lot in DC. They take vicarious pleasure in seeing India squirm, and “put in its place”
Re: “How little regard Trump and his Administration have for Modi and India was clear when Washington failed to inform Delhi about the plan for one of its nuclear attack submarines to torpedo an Iranian missile destroyer….”
White Christian U.S. resurgent, in the pole position domestically that Trump has accorded them, has contempt for Hindu India and its people — as an entity — independent of Modi, and hence, inter alia:
06 March 2026
“US won’t allow India to become its competitor” : Dy State Sec Christopher Landau at Raisina Dialogue
In the animal world, there is a well-established behavioural pattern of “re-direction”. When the big monkey hits the little monkey, the little monkey does not hit back — it hits the even little-er monkey.
VS
Email from Vice Admiral Satish Soni (Retd), former FOCINC, Eastern Naval Command
Satish Soni
Tue, Mar 10 at 8:32 PM
Mr Karnad.
Thank you so much for your erudite Post.
Are you suggesting that the Navy sits it out and doesn’t escort oil tankers when the Nation needs crude from the Gulf?
Warships were meant to go in harm’s way!
How will history judge us?
Regards,
Vadm Satish soni
Dear Admiral Soni,
Firstly, India does not “need” Gulf crude. Not, if it taps the Sakhalin crude as I mentioned in my post.
Secondly, “sitting out” other people’s war is not a bad strategy at all. It is certainly preferable to the Indian Navy deliberately steaming into “harm’s way”. It is not as if it is Dwarka being hit while the navy sits on its haunches,as happened in the 1965 War. This is a distant military operation that India has no business intruding into. The US’ media campaign ballyhooing great success, notwithstanding, the fact is Iran is far from being on the mat. The real test will come if Trump decides on having American “boots on the ground” — which is precisely what the Iranian military, especially the Pasdaran, hope and want — a long, drawn out, war that mires the US in an unwinnable situation in West Asia, which is familiar to Washington. Given America’s awful war record it is something the US will seek to avoid repeating, unless a hot-headed Trump engages his ego in this enterprise that was flawed from the start. In that case, he and the US will be consumed by this war.
Thirdly, can the Indian Navy really protect Indian tankers in contested passage through the Hormuz Strait that is already being mined by the Iranian navy? And all this at a considerable distance from home base and supply source and without any preparation? Such as previously prepositioned stores, etc in Duqm, et al. It will involve, moreover, severing our strategic ties to Iran — Chabahar and the alternatve to the Chinese BRI, and so on, only to please America that doesn’t give a damn for India. Or, have you missed the pro-consular speech at the Raisina Dialogue by the US Deputy Secretary of State, Christopher Landau. (See the reference above in the post by Dr Siddhartha.)
Fourthly, is the Indian Navy in the monkey see, monkey do mode and then with the miniscule Pakistan Navy? Because PN has decided, as you perhaps know, to deploy its ships to escort its tankers out of Hormuz. Well, so much for India’s voluntary strategic self-reduction. Good Luck!
And finally, History is pockmarked by incidents/events undertaken by countries that seek to elevate themselves by ill-advised military actions and, in the process, fall flat on their faces.
Warm Regards,
Bharat
Continuation of correspondence with Vice Admiral Soni by Email:
Satish Soni
To: me · Wed, Mar 11 at 8:36 AM
More questions to answer.
I could debate.
Requires long conversations. You surely remember Adm ABC Cunningham’s quote.
I sincerely hope we are there along with others just like during the anti piracy campaign, where again we chose to sit out initially! Only to join later. And now look at Indian navy’s contributions in the NW Indian Ocean.
We have invested in a navy sir. They will get our stranded tankers from the contested waters. I assure you.
But I respect your views.
Regards
Satish
My dear Admiral,
You are no doubt aware of my very high regard for you. So this bit of correspondence is only to clarify in my mind some issues you have raised.
With respect,
Bharat
Further correspondence with VAdm Soni:
Satish Soni
Wed, Mar 11 at 10:38 AM
Admiral of the Fleet Andrew Cunningham (ABC) is best known for his 1941 quote regarding the loss of ships in Crete: “It takes the Navy three years to build a new ship. It will take three hundred years to build a new tradition”
The tradition that he was referring to was support to the army even when the Navy suffered huge losses.
I am referring to the requirement to escort our stranded tankers. This is a legitimate job that should be given to the Navy and we should not shy away just because there are challenges ahead. And that is the tradition that I am referring to.
I am not advocating that we become a lackey of the Americans or any other Western nation.
I am just saying that the Navy must stand up and be counted when our maritime assets are in trouble/ when the nation wants us to act. Should not run scared of the combat zone. So what if we get bloodied. The merchant marine will never ever trust us if we don’t stand by them in their hour of need.
And the common man will rightfully ask, what is the Navy for if It Can’t do this job.
I am not aware of what the official stance is. I am just conveying my personal thoughts.
You are a very respected analyst. And what you say means a lot. That is the reason I wanted to share this thought with you for your consideration.
Regards
Satish
Thank you Admiral Soni for the Cunningham quote. It is indeed pertinent to establishing a fighting tradition for the Indian navy — a process that protecting the country’s maritime assets and its merchant marine, may solidify. But the offensive Britannic “tradition” imbibed in whatever measure by the Royal Indian Marine and the Indian Navy, that you expect will be strengthened by involvement in such activity as escorting tankers through Hormuz, is fine in hortatory terms. I hope though that the Indian Navy takes on more consequential tasks such as eroding the Chinese naval presence west of Malacca. Success in the latter mission is what will solder IN’s reputation as a force that is not to be trifled with.
Warmly,
Bharat
US navy itself is refusing to escort its commercial ships through Hormouz so everything else is a moot question.
1)Either Iran will not attack Indian vessels in which case no escort needed.
2) Or India joins the war effort with US on its side.
Where is the third option? Any escort ship willl be attacked.
Agreed. If blood is to be shed, then better in pursuit of long term strategic interests! India can achieve the safety of tankers via quid pro quo with IRGC.
Professor has japan decided to be American cannon fodder for the war in Taiwan? If so why?
Japan is certainly going to be more active in assisting Taiwan defend itself.
professor modi in 2014 told xi jinping to choose india over pakistan. Why did china go ahead with cpec? Was it to anger india and keep us in check?
Can we ever have normal relations with china?why do they have hatred for us? Is it because we did not accept aksai chin when they were asking for back in 1960s?
Email from a former senior naval person (who wishes to remain anonymous)
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Dear Sir,
Thank you for sharing this insightful and timely article.
God help Admirals all over who are living in an age that doesn’t exist anymore. An ostrich in the sand attitude.
Was the I.N. or even the USN able to escort merchant ships with any degree of success during the Red Sea crisis? Shipping companies were not ready to take the risk and rely on either the US or European coalitions. After two months of a bombing campaign against the Houthis that started in March 2025 the USA cut a deal with them in May that year.
Regards,
The US doesn’t have allies or enemies. Only A, B and C rated customers and competitors. And future / unwilling customers. Thats it.
Florida based CENTCOM be truly living the Miami life , gambling and waging operations as if the middle Eastern countries are gamblers and america is the House/Casino . As they say , House always wins they will walk away with a bloody nose and a grin with pockets full.
This is more of a wondering out aloud post with many open questions. Please indulge me on this.
This war seems to have eroded the US invincibility / influence in the Middle East. Might even hasten the departure of the US military from the region. Dream come true for Russia and China.
whichever lens I see this with, gives me a sense that this is one of those pivotal moments that have changed the world order.
1- end of US supremacy, possibly its economy in the distant future and it’s reserve currency status
2- realignment of the world economic order with China emerging stronger. It’s still an export oriented economy, so remains to be seen how thats gonna play out
3- if anything, cheaper weapons in volume defeating the expensive ones. Lessons to be learnt for defense planners
4- alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz to come?
5- time for India to start weaning off its US umbrella. The sinking of the Iranian warship and India’s poor handling of its response shows a lack of spine
I had mentioned earlier that in the next ten days the scenario would become clear. Either Israel would remain the regional strongman and USA the global hegemon or Iran would become the regional strongman with China gradually displacing the USA at the global level. The conduct of the war seems to be supporting Iran-China dominance hypothesis. With the death of senior Khamenei and the possible retreat of USA and Israel, I see the following developments:
1- GCC placing themselves under Chinese security, with Iran and Pakistan as the proxies
2- Iran developing nuclear weapons
3- Iranian economy growing rapidly due to the development of oil infrastructure and de facto lifting of sanctions
Israel will choose the Samson option only if there is an imminent threat of nuclear attack. It may become an unfortunate reality in round 3 of the conflict, if that happens.
Professor Karnad,
Let’s say the US cuts its losses and withdraws from Iran. What would happen then?
If the US withdraws, Iran might demand compensation for all the damage done and could try to gain control over oil exports from the GCC. Iran would still control the Strait of Hormuz, so GCC countries—realizing their vulnerability—might be forced to pay up. This could potentially shift trillions of dollars of economic power toward Iran and lead to Iran becoming a kind of superpower in the Middle East.
Would Israel ever allow that to happen? To me It seems less like a US war and more like Israel’s war. Your post isn’t taking about Israel’s motive.
Also, if GCC countries responded by pulling their investments out of US financial markets, wouldn’t the US be better off pursuing a ground invasion instead of facing a market collapse. Will the Deep State allow it?
My post addressed the US’s role (not Israel’s). One of Tehran’s 3 conditions for negotiating peace is reparations by the US for the enormous destruction caused in Iran. “Ground invasion” by US/Israel? Oh, please!
It would be much worse then Vietnam !
Conquering Iran is no joke!
Dear professor ,
2. Are you following recent pakistan afghanistan war ? Would love to see your next article on that. Will iran allow us in future to help Taliban using their territory? And with Balochistan and afganistan issue can pakistan afford to have shia issue and fight with tehran to honour their defence pact with saudi arabia?
1) No possibility of nuke use
2) Iran has major issues with Pakistan, so…
what are the issues between iran and pakistan professor?
Shia-Sunni,safe haven for BLA fighters, Pak too close to the US
Professor Karnad, as an AI engineer, I see the current emphasis on using AI for basic logistics,inventory management and target selction as a massive strategic oversight.
In my view, the real frontier is the shift toward Multi-Agent Simulation (MAS) for high-stakes decision-making.
Some boys on west coast are working on a framework that treats military decision making whether at the General or troop level as a predictable outcome of cognitive conditioning and environmental stimuli.
By training autonomous agents on specific doctrinal ‘training sets’ (historical doctrine, educational background, and institutional axioms), we can build ‘Digital Replicas’ of adversarial decision-makers.
This would essentially allow us to ‘war-game’ against the actual cognitive biases of an enemy commander rather than a guess his judgement ( we can his brain and thinking patterns ).
Shivam@ — I confess I am still trying to study the subject and wrap my mind around the possbilities of AI use in tactical and strategic decisionmaking. All wargaming involves “reverse engineering” the opponent’s thought processes, and AI’s ability to process unimaginable amounts of data coupled to high compute power, is exciting. I cannot say I yet fully understand AI’s capabilities because human cognition may or may not be replicable by machines. Or, is it? Still, on these issues, would welcome education by such as you working in the field. Can cognition be AI generated? And, to turn your Q on you, what ideas do you have for “frameworks for ‘Computational Command’ framework”?
@BharatKarnad
Sir, I hope you are doing well. I wanted to ask if there are any updates regarding the upcoming title. Is it currently under development, and can we expect it to be released this summer? I would really appreciate any information you can share with the audiences here
Hi Karnad Sir,
Given the belligerence of Israel, don’t you think it is an apt time for India to announce that Iran is under its nuclear umbrella?
I mean, the nuclear fallout from a nuclear strike on Iran will have ramifications for Majority of SE Asia right?
It is in our national interest to protect Iran. $40 Billion worth of Natural Gas investment wiped out today – who is the major party suffering?
Actually, it is in no one’s national interest to offer N-umbrella to anyone else, for any reason.
Prof Karnad,
Is the silence an appropriate policy when great powers from other regions, even other hemispheres, launch wars in India’s vicinity?
These wars are threatening India’s energy security and economic security, harming our workers in the Middle East, denting our remittances and inflaming the region for years while the whole region suffers.
New Delhi cannot remain a mute bystander while the whole region burns, affecting its critical national interests directly.
Would you write and provide your opinion on this in detail??
Much has actually come out in the Indian press. What isn’t clear is the intention of Vandyke & Co., which’s in the realm of speculation. Let’s see if Modi resists US pressure.
Hi Professor Karnad,
I would like to know your views about the recent arrest of the American mercenary Mathew Van Dyke & his 6 Ukrainian associates.
Given his track record, isn’t it dangerous that this character has turned up in India and frightening that he was able to travel to Manipur/Mizoram ? His activities in Libya & Iraq/Syria are quite well documented even then he was able to reach Manipur/Mizoram to provide training to armed separatist groups.
Inspite of his past activities, why was he even given a visa ? Is the MEA so useless or is there something else at work ?
Facts: (1) This was a CIA op with Vandyke leading his Ukrainian agents
(2) Russian intel was crucial in identifying and locating them
(3) Their aim seems to be less to stir things up in Myanmar than
in India’s Christian tribal northeast. This, by the way, is
an old, perhaps, ongoing project
(4) The Modi govt will have to show extreme firmness in shrugging off
American pressure to release Vandyke in particular by promising
legal proceedings in the US against him. This is a joke. Recall,
in this respect, how the CIA agent brazenly shot a target at a main
Lahore crossroads and got bailed out by Washington. This CANNOT be
allowed to happen.
(5) This entire CIA team has to face Indian law in Indian courts.
This news story in NY Times from 1967 mentions CIA activity in north east, turning Naga tribes against the state. They haven’t given up on exploiting opportunities to weaken the Indian State to this day.
https://www.nytimes.com/1967/11/21/archives/indian-cia-studies-charge-against-us.html