[Modi & Putin]
Before Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin sat down to talk turkey at the 23rd India-Russia summit yesterday, the Wall Street Journal published a story by its Delhi Bureau chief (https://www.wsj.com/world/india/putin-and-modi-deepen-relationship-that-has-drawn-trumps-anger-bef8f813) saying that Dmitry Peskov was wrong in signalling that the visit would result in consequential deals for “Russian jet fighters” (Su-57) and “missile air-defence systems” (S-400). “Indian officials”, the story said, “have quietly discouraged the idea that any such agreements will emerge during the visit.” US President Donald Trump’s displeasure at any arms deal in the offing was known to Delhi.
Considering that Peskov is the official spokesman for Putin and, in some circles, tagged as the man to succeed him in the Kremlin, calling him out this way was an extraordinarily risky thing to do — because what he said represented Putin’s views. While the Russian President may forgive the Indian government because, well, Modi, as if to compensate, laid on the praise for Putin a bit thick at the formal state dinner last night, Peskov may be less forgiving. Being publicly contradicted is a variety of personal slight, and diplomatic slights are rarely forgotten by men on the way up who eventually make it to the top. (Remember Mani Shankar Aiyar’s “chaiwallah” jibe against Modi that ended up in a huge circle of collateral damage around the Congresswallah?)
The official Indian position, moreover, was anticipated by Tina Dolbaia, a Russia expert at a WashingtonDC think tank — the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who said, as the Journal reported, that “India would need tacit US approval to pursue major new deals [because] A US law allows for sanctions on countries that purchase major defence hardware from Russia.” What? Really?!!
So, Trump is driving India’s Foreign and Military Policy? I’d like to give the benefit of the doubt to the Modi regime, thinking it cannot be so daft, and believe that the formal decision to go in for the Su-57, S-400, and the miniature nuclear reactors with total tech transfer and production rights, is being held in abeyance — a ruse to be used in the mean time as leverage against America. Fine, but leverage to get what?
Surely, Delhi was not expecting a turnaround in the US strategy and to commit more fully to the Indo-Pacific because that, as the US National Security Strategy document released by the White House two days back, said clearly, won’t happen. The Trump Administration has indicated it will concentrate on itself — on one-sided trade deals, capturing energy sources and critical mineral reserves anywhere by any means, and on hemispheric security — Central and South America (whence the underway efforts to remove the Maduro regime in Venezuela). So, India cannot expect to once again be a free rider on security. It will have to rely on itself.
But, whatever Washington says, what does the Modi regime really desire from the US — ah, yes, technology! It is difficult to see just why people like Modi, Jaishankar (and the entire MEA caboodle — and, in this respect, refer the op/ed in today’s Indian Express by Shyam Saran, a former Foreign Secretary) see the US as a leader in advanced technology and as willing to part with it to India! When the facts are that, by almost any metric China is now in the technology vanguard in the most cutting edge areas — Artificial Intelligence, Quantum computing, semiconductors, digital connectivity, biotech, and greentech (see the eye-opening report on China’s tech leap by the Mercator Institute in Germany, https://merics.org/en/china-tech-observatory ), and the US has transferred NO technology or military hardware of any note to India in the last 70-odd years!
The only reason India may end up getting the F-35 is because Trump will succeed in pressuring Modi to buy this phenomenally useless combat aircraft — an absolute lemon and operational liability that spends more time on the ground than in the air. The US Government desperately needs foreign buyers to amortise the $2 trillion programme cost sunk into it by Lockheed and the American tax payer — and guess who stands out as the prime sucker they can unload this dud on? The petro-rich, brain-empty Arab states aside, you guessed it — INDIA with some officers holding high posts in the IAF actually salivating over getting it — the very definition of masochism! Trump is confident he can arm twist Modi and India to do anything and, with Jaishankar and IAF assisting, get him to buy anything, and that “good friend” Modi won’t hold his being repeatedly humiliated on Sindoor, or having his nose rubbed in the dirt by rewarding Pakistan and being pally with “Field Marshal” Asim Munir, against him!
But does the Indian government think it cannot do without the US on its side? When the 50% tariffs were imposed, Delhi hyperventilated but, after a period of discomfiture, found that the Indian exporters had found other markets. And that the Indian industry was generally humming, the dip in exports to the US notwithstanding. The lesson that Delhi should have drawn was that if the US is not all that critical to the country’s economy, it is even less relevant to India’s defence. This then should have been the baseline seriously to mobilise an “all of nation” effort and become genuinely atmnirbhar. Whenever the government has trusted local entrepreneurs and talent to deliver, they have. That hasn’t occurred.
One also despairs about the Indian government ever getting anything right at any time in the geostrategic field, even as one marvels at China getting every thing right all the time in every sphere, and now has Trump’s America running for its life! And this is the formidable adversary India, willy nilly, has to take on. Or, it can opt for the easy way out as it has always done — just lie down and let Beijing walk all over us, doing which India has had lots of practice over the years.
Security Wise 
From V Siddhartha, former Science Adviser to Defence Minister, by email
Sat, Dec 6 at 8:04 PM
…. of possible contextual interest — on your general theme
Dec. 2024
Alliances, state preferences, and trade networks: The impact of United States sanctions on dual-use trade
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/07388942241298496
See also:
May 2021
Sanctions and Third-party Compliance with US Foreign Policy Preferences: An Analysis of Dual-use Trade
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027211014945?icid=int.sj-abstract.similar-articles.2
VS
This was expected, i dont think Modi govt is going to sign any deal with Russia till Trump is there.
So none of these strategically important deals were discussed ? And the visit was just optics ? Just how much more pusillanimous can GoI get ?!
With all due respect Sir, I think you are misreading the intentions of the Indian Establishment (politicians, bureaucrats, diplomats, intellectuals academics , defense personnel, businessmen). They are only interested in using the government machinery for their personal benefit.
They don’t have any interest in making India a superpower or reforming the system. Most of them have already settled their children in the West.
Maybe that’s why they are encouraging the brain drain. In order to stop the brain drain, the system of governance will have to be changed or else the educated middle class might start having revolutionary ideas like what happened in Europe. Once these people migrate they become somebody else’s problem.
Excellent observation. Professor Karnad is a utopian even he knows in his heart of hearts that nothing will ever change in India on the contrary with ever increasing population the problems will grow manifold especially for middle class, for whom the best option is to migrate abroad.
ever growing population ?
Indias tfr is below replacement levels .
also migrating abroad ? Where ?
Have you even been to the uk Or USA or Australia ? Sky high rent and cost of living crisis …… In fact just last year 50000 kiwis left last year.
what a low IQ answer really …….
Yes Babus are a problem
whatever gave you the impression that bharat karnad was utopian ?
Even if he was, even then atleast the future generations will have a blueprint for india.
The west is no longer what it was .There are serious issues and living there is now extremely difficult due to muslims migration. High energy prices etc etc……
even if babu made their children settle abroad , I doubt maga movement would let them settle or live in peace.
perhaps modi should fund maga to attack and carry out a civil war on Indians abroad. That will show them their aukaat
Since this does not affect us indians living in India it will not be a problem us and maga hatred will only unite us and make us nationalistic enough to start thinking and working towards the aatmanirbharta that bharat karnad has envisioned
What about rents in Delhi, Bombay and Bangalore?
life quality abroad in Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand is way better than India.
Corruptuon is so rampant in India. Having a blue print is of no use unless it gets implemented.
Professor Karnad, I found the following comment by one of your readers on your previous post very hard hitting and apt.
I would like to ask you if this is true then what’s the point of your advocating India nuclear arming China’s neighbors like Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines etc with nuclear weapons.
Which country would like to spend its resources on buying junk like Indian nuclear weapons?
Itanium on
@Prof Karnad,
India was destined to be a minor nuclear material after it failed to test for some 25 odd years after 1974.
So by 1998 it was a foregone conclusion that India would only have a basic minimum nuclear deterrent and not a war-fighting arsenal.
So India achieved the nuclear status its politicians always intended to with 1998 tests and is supposedly very happy with the status quo – despite what others nuclear enthusiasts deeply desire or suggest.
So the desire for a proven thermonuclear arsenal coming from a nuclear war fighting angle simply isn’t there with Indian estab.
What is “junk” is the thermonuclear (2-stage, fusion) weapon, because it fizzled in the only test conducted with it in 1998. So it is unproven and therefore useless. Hence my advocacy for resumed thermonuclear testing. The lesser yield — 20KT and even sub-KT tacnukes are fine, and these constitute the bulk of the warheads on our Agni missiles, and the Brahmos cruise missile, which we can transfer to states on China’s periphery as payback.
You are right, however, on your other observations.
If Trump’s America ends up going to war with Venezuela , it might be Vietnam redux. State Department’s policy has always been to decrease anti-americanism in north and south america. Pan-latin nationalism will be redirected against US in the form of anti-americanism , similar to how Vietnam’s communism was just nationalism redirected to the Americans , instead of its traditional adversary China.
Prof., Slightly contrary to what you have suggested, Amb. Bhadrakumar thinks it’s also Russia, specifically Putin who wanted this meeting to be mostly on strengthening Economic relations. Reason being the current talks with Witkoff et al. regarding Peace plan. Putin doesn’t want to unnecessarily complicate the peace talks by drumming about big ticket defense deals. That also suits India for now. Please take a look :
The military/security and economic are not mutually exclusive aims for either party
looking at way cambodians and thailand are going at it ,
it really puts us at shame the miniscule objectives we choose to go after,
silver spoon leadership and their indecisiveness to do anything worthwhile
Conspicuously absent from your analysis is the mover and shaker of Modi’s India–Ahmdavad lobby. Asha Jadeja Motwani was just caught recruiting IAS officers for her influence operation. Adani and Ambani are doing the kayfabe while taking over India.
@BharatKarnad
i was reading one of your older blogs on aridhaman and carriers
there you say this
“In fact, the Indian Arihant-class SSBN seems far larger and more powerful than advertised by the government or the navy. It looks like the Arihant displaces some 8,000 tonnes as against its publicized tonnage of 6,000 tonnes. The follow-on sub — Aridhaman and the two other SSBNs in this class are larger still”
Sir any source for this cause as far as i know the true displacement and speed of the SSBN is a classified stuff.
Would appreciate if you could tell from where does the 8000tonnes for arihant and arighat and 10000 tonnes for aridhaman figure come from
A lot of what I write is NOT from published sources. Incidentally, I have never been refuted.
@BharatKarnad
but professor how is arihant class and the upcoming S4 class SSBN when comapared to the chinese Type 092 and 094 SSBN?
i mean in terms of stealth. In Weapons payload sure the Type 094 is ahead because of the number of VLS tubes i.e 12 and long range JL2 missiles
but which SSBN class is better according to your analysis
Both Chinese subs are not silent — the Xia-class 092, particularly noisy from all accounts. Arighaat on, more silent
@BharatKarnad
professor was reading one of your blogs on tu 160 strategic bomber
other then nuclear delivery these are my points for induction of a strategic bomber in the IAF
There have been arguments in the past invalidating the claims of a bomber for the IAF. However in this age of BVRAAM and higher AD envelope where LRSOW is vital investing in a bomber is indeed a good option
During Operation Sindoor we did not fire our SSM like BrahMos, Nirbhay or Pralay in order to avoid a nuclear threat. Even the former PAF air chief recently confirmed that any weapons fired from a land based modules will be assumed as a nuclear threat.
Given these facts we are to rely on LRSOW weapons like BrahMos-A, Rampage, SCALP, etc. These weapons have a medium range between 250 to 400km while we are actively working on a long-range ones like 800km variants.Meanwhile, the PLAAF has multiple ALCM and ALBM like the CJ-10 and AKF-98 with an estimated range of 1500+ km and 1000km.
This gives them the operational flexibility of launching a missile well outside our ADS envelope while targeting our forward nodes and critical infrastructures.
So India need to prioritise on long-range ALBM and ALCM like ITCM and BrahMos-II to be effectively launched from the air? If so we need a platform do so. Given this, does India need to develop one or does the existing Su-30MKI which is the only capable HWF enough?
Also, the limitation in carrying such weapons by Su-30MKI is one missile per aircraft whereas the Chinese H-6K/N and JH-7 can carry more than one missiles per sorties increasing the operational efficiency.
would love to know your views on this
with the shanti bill being passed in the parliament few days back would this not derail our homegrown small modular reactor programme . eventually harming our 3 stage programme . your views sir.
Yes
@BharatKarnad
Trump signs law, wants India’s nuclear liability aligned with global norms
U.S. President tells Secretary of State to establish mechanism to ‘assess the implementation’ of 2008 nuclear deal; Congress says PM Modi ‘bulldozed’ SHANTI Bill to make peace with ‘once good friend’
Please have a look at this The hindu Article. What are its implications sir?. And if could pen down a blog on this.
https://www-thehindu-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.thehindu.com/news/national/trump-signs-law-wants-india-nuclear-liability-aligned-with-global-norms/article70419553.ece/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17662891596842&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thehindu.com%2Fnews%2Fnational%2Ftrump-signs-law-wants-india-nuclear-liability-aligned-with-global-norms%2Farticle70419553.ece