[Field Marshal Asim Munir presenting a picture to PM Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistani guns supposedly in action against India in Sindoor, except it is a 2019 picture taken from the net of PLA firing guns in an Exercise in China!]
Having US President Donald Trump mouth off something or the other about Pakistan getting the better of India in the “3-day war” in May this year, is one thing. But when a US Congressional Report repeats it, and fleshes out the points, one may conclude that this is now the settled view of the US government. Given the power of the Western media and academia, this will be the standard narrative the world over that the Indian government and military will find impossible to counter.
This was predictable because, like on earlier occasions, the Indian military in this fracas again ended the Sindoor proceedings without a decisive result, handing the Pakistan army — which is more competent in crafting a winner’s narrative than actually fighting anybody (India, Baloch freedom fighters, Tariq-e-Taliban Pakistan), the opportunity with Trump’s help to put out the story of its great victory over Indian arms!
This is the reason I have long warned in my writings that if Delhi carries out military retaliation against Pakistani for terrorist acts within India, it should not go half-cocked or settle for other than a decisive physical result that cannot be denied by GHQ-Rawalpindi or Islamabad. Thus, immediately after the 2019 Balakot strike I pointed out that, if the message to be sent to Pakistan was not to resort to terrorism, it made no sense for the IAF to use a precision weapon — the Israeli Spice 2000 that, because of targeting errors, actually missed hitting what needed to be hit anyway, and uprooted a few trees. What should have been sent in was waves of strike aircraft dropping 500 kg bombs to flatten the Balakot hilltop, accompanied by a combat air patrol component for protection, inviting the Pakistan Air Force into a full-fledged fight.
That would have been unexpected and stunned the PAF and GHQ-R into inaction and compelled them to reconsider its use of the asymmetric weapon — terrorism. I said all this in a subsequent meeting in Vayu Bhavan with the then air chief, Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa, and a few of his Principal Staff Oficers, none of whom could come up with a satisfactory explanation for the selection of the weapon or, generally, the tactics.
After the Pahalgam massacre and with the Modi government preparing for an appropriate response, I made out the case on April 30 — a week before Op Sindoor, for the army to take the Haji Pir Salient and/or Skardu in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir which, because these features are across a ceasefire line, can be legally captured and assimilated into J&K. See “Capture of Haji Pir Salient and Skadru — eminently doable, is what the Indian military’s goals ought to be for the retaliatory actions” (at https://bharatkarnad.com/2025/04/30/capture-of-haji-pir-salient-and-skardu-eminently-doable-is-what-the-indian-military-ought-to-be-the-goals-for-the-retaliatory-actions/).
I argued in that and subsequent posts that the the loss of large chunks of POK alone would be disincentive enough and deter GHQ-R in the future from conducting terrorist strikes. But once again — talk of the Indian government and military happily repeating the same mistake! — the army stopped its action after hitting Muridke and Bahawalpur and offered a ceasefire on May 7 that was contemptuously rejected by Director General, Military Operations, Pakistan army — according to his Indian counterpart Lt Gen Rajiv Ghai. Then, as I disclosed, in reaction to Indian intelligence picking up Munir’s boast to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif based on the downing by PAF of several IAF aircraft that he’d “finish of” India in 48 hours, the Indian military attacked the night of May 9/10 and preemptively destroyed a whole bunch of value targets on the other side including, significantly, the PAF’s central command and control centre on Nur Khan Base, Chaklala. See “The ’48 hours” — is why Munir beame a Field Marshal?” posted on May 24, 2025https://bharatkarnad.com/2025/05/24/the-48-hours-is-why-munir-became-a-field-marshal/
With air dominance achieved, the army was offered on a platter an extraordinary opportunity to take Haji Pir, which it did not. Instead of instantly triggering Indian army units to converge on the Bulge from Uri, Mandi and Poonch, to take Haji Pir with the Indian Special Forces cutting of the salient on the north-south Uri-Poonch line, the army sat on its hands. Haji Pir is the area through which Pakistan army’s Inter-Services Intelligence infiltrates terrorists into Jammu and the Srinagar Valley.
If an “arm chair” strategist like myself could, see the political-military value in it, and conceive of such an operation, why did the army’s MO Directorate not plan and push for such action? Because, it turns out, nobody had anticipated the success of the Indian May 9/10 missile attacks and, therefore, no one in the army had planned for a contingent operation to capture Haji Pir, or any other major feature in POK.
The lack of decisive military results has time and again, cost India, the Indian government and military dear (a phrase I keep repeating!) in terms of serious reputational damage. Sindoor has incurred, perhaps, worse damage.
On November 18 was released the 2025 Report to US Congress of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (at https://www.uscc.gov/annual-report/2025-annual-report-congress). Most such reports while attributing information in them to public sources are published after they are vetted by American intelligence agencies. Saying the May 7-10 clash “drew global attention” because Pakistan “leveraged” Chinese weapon systems and “live inputs” from Chinese intelligence, the Report stated categorically that “Pakistan’s military success over india…showcased Chinese weaponry” with the aerial combat, in particular, “serving as a real world field experiment.” And then added that “Pakistan’s use of Chinese weapons” had resulted in the downing of “French Rafale fighter jets” before conceding that of the three Indian combat aircraft shot down — a scaling down of Trump’s latest figure of loss of eight Indian aircraft, “not all may have been Rafales”, meaning at least one was (the one shot over Bhatinda that I mentioned).
Going forward, this then will be the narrative attached to Sindoor. All the bleatings by Indian government and military officials to the contrary, notwithstanding. Because we never learn any lessons, India, its government and its military are fated to repeat the mistake of retaliating small. Already, there have been a number of terrorist attacks since Pahalgam without an Indian response. So what’s the worth of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s threat he made after Sindoor that any terrorist incident will occasion a hard Indian reaction?
There’s something after all to the Israeli attitude — not the Hamurabi Code of an eye for an eye, but both eyes for just looking as if you mean to hurt!
Security Wise 
Sir, there are reports of Pakistan engaging Israel. Apparently Washington is encouraging it. Pakistan is being offered financial assistance and economic incentives by both USA and Israel in return.
Does this mean in the future India may not be able to rely Israel in any conflict against Pakistan ? Israel is very dependent on America. Even if Israel wants to help India America may not allow it.
No, I don’t think so.
For some reason, this note was not getting uploaded to the Comments despite my approving it. So I am pasting it.
Ezra Prince
In reply to Bharat Karnad.
Hello Sir, Kindle version of most of your old books isn’t available. Please do something about it. Also looking forward to your upcoming book.
You’re a lone-wolf with a ‘cut-to-the-chase’ thinking and have ‘influenced’ me to ‘think-objectively-with-zero-crap’ not only about International affairs, but in every other subject. Unfortunately, your “style” of thinking doesn’t do ego-massaging, which is the top-skill for survival in India and hence i could see why you haven’t got ‘mainstream’ attention. But your volume of work will definitely leave a trail for future generations, especially the ‘no non-sense’ thinkers will definitely benefit from it. Regards,
@BharatKarnad
Completely agree with what @Ezra Prince said regarding books. Professor, if possible, could you please make your older titles Future Imperilled and Strategic Sellout available on Kindle? It would help the next generation of readers access them more easily.
i searched almost every old delhi book store in the daryaganj book market area unfortunately could not find these 2 books of yours there. Was lucky enough to somehow get hold of nuclear weapons and indian security 2002. And ig it was the last copy available in india.
https://books.google.co.in/books/about/Strategic_Sellout.html?id=4U2r77PtR-IC&redir_esc=y
pentagon press has even uploaded certain parts maybe 20 percent of the total strategic sellpit on google books. If professor karnad could to talk to the publisher and ask him to upload the remaining parts of the book,he is the co-author its his stuff.
Professor please kindly look into this . And is this possible from your side.
my regards
Thanks for writing it down sir. However, when looking at the congressional report, the link of which you’ve posted in your above article. I am unable to see the references regarding the perceived Pak win by US establishment. Can you please help locate the same?!
Pages 108-109.
@BharatKarnad I think you, me and India shouldn’t give any attention to this report and the counts mentioned it.
The US government in the 2nd term of Donald Trump has become a rubber stamp, therefore they will say, do and write keeping in mind pleasing him.
Anyways, the world doesn’t begin and end with America and this report and we, India can’t live our life based on this report and what anyone in this world says and thinks about India.
In conclusion, this report is not worth the paper on which it was written.
It doesn’t matter what “you, I and India” think about the report. The point I made is that the Report’s view of Sindoor will become the standard narrative in the world, to our disadvantage.
@BharatKarnad
Professor karnad
With President Putin currently on a two-day visit to India, a speculative question comes to mind my could India theoretically seek direct or covert assistance from Russia in the design of advanced thermonuclear 2 stage weapons? Especially when India’s S-1 thermonuclear device did not perform as expected and is a dud a fizzile
Russia, as the successor to the Soviet nuclear program, has conducted some 715 nuclear tests, including dozens of multi-megaton thermonuclear explosions and hundreds of warheads in the 200–800 kiloton range. From a purely technical standpoint, this gives Russia unmatched experience in large-yield weapon design.
This leads me to ask whether India could simply negotiate access to such expertise by offering financial compensation or strategic incentives.
Would love to hear your opinion on this
It is precisely what Yeltsin’s Russia offered India in the mid-1990s — a whole bunch of their leading nuclear weapons designers and scientists that Prime Minister Narasimha Rao turned down, and who then went to China.
@BharatKarnad
Yeah Sir, I am aware of that unfortunate incident. Later, those designers played a crucial role in developing China’s missile arsenal, and we can see how formidable their arsenal is today.
But sir, my original question is this: can we ask Russia for the two-stage thermonuclear weapon design?
If the government is so hesitant to conduct further testing and fears sanctions, then is it possible for us to somehow obtain the weapon design—let’s say by paying a huge amount of money to the Russians?
What are your views on this?
The most important thing is explosion physics data that only comes from testing. Not sure Putin will give it to us unless we really put out, and that won’t happen.
@BharatKarnad
Is this proposal by the scientist and weapons designer mentioned in any of your books?
I would love to read more about it because I’ve never heard of it before.
Yes, in my 2015 book Why India Is Not a Great Power (Yet). And also in my 2002, 2005 book Nuclear Weapons & Indian Security
@Prof Karnad,
India was destined to be a minor nuclear material after it failed to test for some 25 odd years after 1974.
So by 1998 it was a foregone conclusion that India would only have a basic minimum nuclear deterrent and not a war-fighting arsenal.
So India achieved the nuclear status its politicians always intended to with 1998 tests and is supposedly very happy with the status quo – despite what others nuclear enthusiasts deeply desire or suggest.
So the desire for a proven thermonuclear arsenal coming from a nuclear war fighting angle simply isn’t there with Indian estab.
Thanks for the Reply.
In one of ur interviews on Vaad podcast, you said a former Assistant Director of the CIA, Robert Crowley aka The Crow boasted that the CIA killed Dr Homi Bhabha in 1966. Crowley made these comments to Gregory Douglas who is a holocaust denier as per some. Crowley also makes a lot of sensational claims in The Conversation with the Crow regarding the JFK Assassination, Gestapo Chief Heinrich Mueller and the activities of the CIA.
Just wanted to know what made you take his claims about Dr Bhabha seriously. The GoI seems to be too scared to even take this up with the Americans. GoI has stuck to the official story since 1966.
Btw, there are no pictures of Robert Crowley online even though he has co-written books and is mentioned by name in many books about the CIA. Did you come across any other evidence when you were working in America ?
No. But most of the senior Trombay scientists were so convinced as well, and merely proved the “Crow’s” boast. Most intel agents are good at covering up their tracks, as are agencies about operations that, in retrospect, can sour current important bilateral relations.Crowley was Assistant Director, Counter Intelligence, CIA.
@BharatKarnad
Professor Karnad, out of curiosity, I wanted to ask Who is the greatest Armoured Corps commander or general the Indian military has ever produced?
I was reading some material on armoured warfare and tanks, which made me wonder.?
Sagat Singh
Dear Sir, good morning and wish you a happy weekend.
We have conflicting reports saying India is buying S-500, more S-400Triumpf and Su-57, but they ( NDTV) say this is silent and not mentioned anywhere in the deals mentioned.
So, have Modi & Putin successfully overcome the moment of reckoning you expressed in your last article?
Where was Doval in all of this? Hasn’t he planned anything out?
@BharatKarnad
Dr Karnad don’t you think in the years to come we will see large scale proliferation of nuclear weapons across the world , especially with the countries situated at the periphery of large countries and having Western backed security guarantees. I mean Ukraine had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world in the 90s.Had they not taken the western security lollipop and preserved even just 10% percent of their arsenal( approx. 200 warheads), Putin would have not even dreamed of taking Crimea , forget the current Ukraine-Russia War. Seeing this blunder , nation states like Japan , South Korea would start stockpiling in the years to come. Nuclear domino effect , something you mentioned in your 2002 book Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security , I believe.
Absolutely! Read my 2008 book — India’s Nuclear Policy, that discussed nuclear weapons acquisition, because of the China threat, by a whole bunch of countries in Asia, especially Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
Handing Taiwan the nuke will be calling for war with Chinese and I think they would use brutal force to do that.It is useless being like India seeing Pakistan get nuclear bombs and sitting quietly.More proliferation will lead to peace is a big myth, if that would have been the case Nato would have just given Ukraine the nuclear bomb.
Except, UK and Germany were guarantors of UKR security along with Russia and the US!
I will read it right away Dr Karnad
True . But it is frustrating that the only response a country of more than 1.2 billion people can come up with is making Robert Crowley a villain in a web series.
For instance, the US govt had to apologize to France for shielding the Nazi Klaus Barbie after 1945.