[His Holiness, the 14th Dalai Lama]
This has been a bad year for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and, therefore, for India and Indian foreign-military policy.
First, the reelection of Donald Trump to his second term as US President isn’t panning out the way Modi had hoped. It seems the Indian PM mistook the American’s transactionalist statecraft for the kind of personalised diplomacy Modi thinks he is good at. Op Sindoor proved that the PM had got it all wrong — and this was the second big shock. Far from reining in General Asim Munir on the terrorism issue, Trump pressured India into pulling out from a conflict that was moving towards an end favouring Delhi, to save Pakistan from a serious military situation and Munir his job. And far from reacting badly, we have foreign minister S Jaishankar moseying over to Washington to reassure the US that “our defence partnership is today truly one of the most consequential pillars of the relationship” and for the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, to indicate what such a partnership really means: “complete several major pending US defence sales to India”. Rajnath Singh, supportive of Hegseth’s understanding, asked the latter to hurry up and deliver Apache attack helicopters! In other words, Modi’s India is willing to eat crow to remain on America’s side, and help its defence industry along by buying all its old hardware but expensively, even if it results in the blighting of the prospects of the indigenous Tejas, AMCA and the Light Combat Helicopter, for starters.
The third bad turn of events is upon us — the likely announcement on his 90th birthday by His Holiness, the 14th Dalai Lama — the embodiment of the Buddha on earth, of his successor by “reincarnation”. He has already declared that his reincarnation will be announced even if by means of “emanations” and that the 15th Dalai Lama would be a “free land” born Tibetan, which rules out China the nearest thing to George Orwell’s authoritarian, heavily policed, state of “1984”. The emanations path suggests itself when the Dalai Lama has to be found even as the current one is alive. “There have been notable instances of recognized emanations in recent times within the Nyingma and Sakya schools of Tibetan Buddhism”, writes Kelsang Aukatsang, the Dalai Lama’s representative or ambassador to the US, leading to the recognition of “a 13- or 14-year-old, [to] transmit [Dalai Lama’s] wisdom [to], and ensure continuity in spiritual leadership. This would also resolve the long-standing issue of an interregnum—the often decades-long gap between the death of a Dalai Lama and the maturity of his recognized reincarnation.”
“Interregnums are often precarious; throughout Tibetan history, regents of young Dalai Lamas have faced challenges in maintaining authority” says Aukatsang. “Such gaps in leadership have historically led to factional infighting, financial mismanagement, weakened central authority, political instability, and increased vulnerability to external threats.” Another important reform to ease the succession crisis that is possibly up for consideration, he explains, “is the creation of a council charged with implementing the Dalai Lama’s written instructions on succession. This body should include representatives from the four major schools of Tibetan Buddhism—Nyingma, Kagyu, Sakya, and Gelug—as well as Bon, Tibet’s indigenous, pre-Buddhist tradition. By establishing such a council and clearly outlining its mandate, the Dalai Lama would address a critical gap, as there is presently no formal mechanism to ensure that his succession guidelines are carried out, or by whom. This council should report to the Gaden Phodrang Trust. A diverse, credible council would offer both transparency and expertise for what is likely to be a complex and contested process as well as guard against mounting efforts by the [Chinnese Communist Party and [President] Xi [Jinping] to co-opt this sacred tradition for political ends.”
A furious Communist China which, has indulged in skullduggery in extremis, wants to control the agency of the Dalai Lama in order to establish full and complete control over the Tibetan population and crown its 70 year long campaign of Tibetan genocide, by reducing the spiritual head of Tibetan Buddhism to a Chinese Communist Party apparatchik. It is insisting that only Beijing has the authority to appoint the new Dalai Lama and, in fact, proposed the “golden urn” path to selecting the next Dalai Lama by drawing the name from among several candidates. This method was used only once, to select the 11th Dalai Lama.
Except, as Aukatsang reveals, “Any possibility of finding common ground with the Chinese leadership on the issue of succession was shattered in 1995, when China hijacked the reincarnation process of the 10th Panchen Lama, the second-ranking religious figure in Tibet. The Chinese government abducted the legitimate 11th Panchen Lama, then just 6 years old, and his family, installing a state-approved replacement. The real Panchen Lama has been missing ever since, making 2025 the 30th year of his enforced disappearance.” ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/02/dalai-lama-reincarnation-china-tibet-relgion/ )
After deeply mulling the relevance of the institution in the modern day of the Dalai Lama to Tibetans, to Tibet, to Buddhism, and to the world, and whether he shouldn’t end it — because China’s grip on Tibet is only strengthening, His Holiness decided to everyone’s relief that there would be a successor. Because he said of the overwhelming demand from his advisers — the high lamas, the Tibetan exile community in India numbering some 85,000, and [bcause of] representations by Buddhists and Buddhist organisations in the Himalayan region, and by “Mongolia, Buddhist republics of the Russian Federation, and Buddhists in Asia including mainland China.” These constituencies of the Dalai Lama could be mustered for a response to a question someone might ask — as Joseph Stalin did when there was talk of involving the Pope in peacemaking during the Second World War: “The Pope! How many divisions has he got?”
In all the three bad turns enumerated above, it should be apparent to all that it was the Indian government that brought them on, and is responsible for them.
And this bad record it seems will continue. Consider the uneasy silence of the MEA and the Indian government on the issue of recognising the 15th Dalai Lama when his reincarnation is announced by the 14th. Is it a prelude to India capitulating? Beijing has already made it plain that it would look askance at New Delhi siding with the Tibetan Government in Exile, because it claims the installation of the 15th Dalai Lama is central to its “One China” principle.
Considering what’s at stake, it is a glorious opportunity for Prime Minister Modi to prove he is no pushover and that he cares less whether Xi and Zhongnanhai would be troubled and upset with India’s support for the institution of a free Dalai Lama in a free India, and if that means the Chinese People’s Liberation Army acting up on the 4,700 kms long disputed border, well, the Indian military is up for it!
It is an opportunity for Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party regime to reverse the worst foreign policy mistake India made during Jawaharlal Nehru’s time of ceding Tibet without a fight, of pulling back from covertly supporting the Khampa rebellion in the late 1950s, and thereafter doing everything possible to help elevate Communist China. In 1955-56, it generously handed over the UN Security Council permanent seat vacated by Chiangkaishek’s Taiwan and offered to India by both the US and USSR, over to Mao’s China and, in a similar fit of self-abnegation, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, even more weak-headed and weak-kneed than Nehru, in 2003 approved and facilitated China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation! India has been Beijing’s favourite diplomatic, economic and military punching bag.
But what can a punching bag do other than Nothing?
Is everybody’s punching bag what Modi wants India to be known as? If not, then there’s a strategic opportunity staring him in the face. First, loudly declare the Indian government’s whole-hearted support for the “sovereign status” of the 14th Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government in exile in Dharamsala, and, for the 15th Dalai Lama — whenever that reincarnation is announced.
Next, boldly issue a demarche to the Xi regime that India resiles wholly from the previous one-sided acceptance of the “One China” concept. But that New Delhi might re-consider the “One China” principle ONLY IF the Chinese government formally recognises the “One India” principle, inclusive of the erstwhile “princely kingdom” of Kashmir, inclusive of all of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the principalities of Hunza, Nagar, Yasin, Koh-Ghizer, Punial, Chilas, Darel, and TangirHunza in the greater Gilgit-Baltistan region, and the Shaksgam Valley gifted illegally by Ayub Khan to China in 1963. And make these exchanges public.
The simple bargain: China can have “One China” if India gets recognition from Beijing for “One India”. And it should be made amply clear that this “One China” DOES NOT INCLUDE TAIWAN — a separate entity, with which India could establish formal diplomatic relations.
The Indian government needs to end — the lily-livered poufs inhabiting the China Study Group, the apex body that habitually misshapes the country’s China policy, permitting! — India’s policy of unilateral giveaways, and declare that hereon bilateral relations with China will be on a strictly reciprocal basis. You do something, India will return it in exactly the same measure. And that means New Delhi doing an — Om Ganeshesynamah! on transferring, overtly or covertly, strategic/nuclear warheaded missiles, including the Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles, to any country on China’s border which wants absolute security for itself! This move is entirely legal under the Self-Defence Article 51 of the UN Charter.
Revenge, as US President Richard Nixon said, is “a dish best served cold”.
Putting steel in India’s China policy will, moreover, automatically alert the US, Europe, the world to a changed India, raise its stock and standing and, in Asia, where India does not command much respect, increase the desire to strategically partner it in forming a strong bulwark against Beijing’s hegemonistic tendencies. It will be the first time, Modiji, that India would really amount to something.
It is time India, Mr Prime Minister, walked its talk. Your government cannot keep yakking about terrorism and Pakistan — seemingly the full time occupation of Jaishankar and his MEA, even as China makes trouble for the country every which way without Delhi responding in any form. There’s no reason to fear China — it has more troubles than it acknowledges, and its military is good, but mostly on paper. It has never been lately tested in operations. The Indian army is, if nothing else, an operationally blooded force — faced live fire for the last 70-odd years, in insurgencies in the northeast, in Kashmir. The PLA, in contrast, has NOT been in battle since it was hammered by the Vietnamese irregulars in 1979 — even before the regular Vietnamese forces took the field!
[And, Mr Prime Minister, would you please dissolve the wretched China Study Group? Because there’s no greater national security liability.]
Security Wise 
Dr Karnad, is the PM aware of your views ?
Who knows!
Thanks sir, taking time and writing this. Its important that india keeps its eye on China which may have gone closed or distracted due to Op sindoor.
I clearly agree with your point, with our economic, military and stratgic might pointed at china we will get much better ties with western nation which are sceptic on our non aligned or multi aligned policy. I have few questions sir
Why has China not demonstrated its military might directly against india, It can do a military engagement show the world it means business, like what is stopping them to do this before a actual taiwan invasion as a show of force.
In a world which seems like entering into another cold war, which camp should india join at present multi camp is only working for pakistan. Our multi aligned or non aligned approach at present seems to show no divident
sir if government dissolves china study group who will advice government on china suggest any alternative plz reply sir
Better for the govt to wing it than rely on the defeatist recommendations that CSG comes up with
Email from Dr V Siddhartha, former Science Adviser to Defence Minister
V Siddhartha
Thu, 3 July at 5:13 pm
… by the accounts floating about here in Bengaluru, Op Sindhoor cost us upwards of 10K Crores (not including cost of import-replacing downed a/c).
The entire economists gang is running our Foreign Policy. Every senior bureaucrat and maybe a quarter of our MPs have children or relatives in the US. “Let the US and China be the world duo. What has it got to do with us? Why do we want to be “counted” in the World?”
VS
Thu, 3 July at 6:35 pm
… what will be “cost” to us if we leave the QUAD — which refused to call-out Paki.?
VS
Professor Karnad- Excellent composition however as an Indian settled in China with close family ties in both India as well as China. I suggest India, China and Pakistan to leave their egos aside and accept the current boundaries as permanent borders.
No more claims and counter claims on each other’s territories. Visa on arrival for citizens of all three countries to visit each other. Imagine the huge tourism potential not to mention peace in the whole region.
India urgently needs its own strategic think tank—a RAND Corporation equivalent funded by the private sector and dedicated to comprehensive strategy research. This institution should bring together mathematicians, biologists, futurists, historians, sociologists, military strategists and others under one roof. Such transdisciplinary collaboration would produce disruptive policy solutions that transcend the academic slop produced by GOI think tanks and 5th Columnist American Think tanks based in New Delhi(ORF isn’t great either) .
Consider our flawed approach to China policy. The architects of India’s China strategy—those “China Study Group” types—predominantly come from liberal arts backgrounds at institutions like St. Stephen’s and Hindu College. This narrow educational foundation produces bourgeois pacifist policies that rely heavily on romanticized narratives of pre-modern India-China cultural and economic exchanges.They end up using the large cultural and economic exchanges between India and China during Pre – Modern times as crutch to support their arguement. But they are completely oblivious to the actions of Indians during Modern times like Indian soldiers taking part in Opium Wars , Sikh policemen policing Chinese cities and dishing out harsh Colonial Justice to the average Chinaman.Most tellingly, the opium that fueled China’s “Century of Humiliation”—a period our diplomats and chameleons like C. Rajamohan frequently reference—was cultivated in Bihar by British plantation owners.As a matter of fact , George Orwell ,the author of 1984, was born in Bihar to British opium plantation owners.
The historical irony runs deeper: when Indian “freedom fighters” like Dr. S. Radhakrishnan traveled to China preaching “Asian solidarity,” they were publicly denounced by the Chinese as British stooges. This context completely undermines the naive assumptions underlying our current China engagement strategy.
“Most tellingly, the opium that fueled China’s “Century of Humiliation”—a period our diplomats and chameleons like C. Rajamohan frequently reference—was cultivated in Bihar by British plantation owners.”
Not to forget that Tata group’s founders were also heavily engaged in the production of drugs. Tatas infact made their fortune through the aforementioned.
Absolutely correct. Not just the Tatas—opium fueled the rise of colonial-era Bombay !
Dr Karnad , Wonderful article as usual by you. However I believe you are ignoring following things here : 1. Why the Dalai Lama has suddenly decided to announce his successor now ? Is he under some pressure from the US? 2. What will be the reaction of the Buddhists in Tibet to a Trust based out of Tibet ? Will they accept the foreign Trust-chosen Dalai who may well be a foreigner or will they accept some local chosen by Beijing ? 3. Since our economy is dependent upon Chinese imports what should be our response here ?
1. Why does that matter?
2. As long as the Trust is associated with the Dalai Lama, nothing else matters — it may be a Tibetan lad from the exile community whether in India or elsewhere
3. The sooner wer are weaned from econ dependence on China the better — and if Beijing stops exporting, that’d be great!
China holds the rare earths card.
Not for long
@BharatKarnad The China Study Group which you’ve called as lily-livered poufs and wretched as per Wikipedia is a confidential body and in 2020 was headed by the National Security Advisor and consisted of other members as read at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Study_Group.
Why do you say the China Study Group habitually misshapes India’s China policy?
Why would it want to do so? Wouldn’t it know that doing so would undermine its credibility and quicken its demise in the Government of India?
You think India’s China policy is a success, then
@BharatKarnad I never said that India’s China policy is a success.
I asked you why you called the China Study Group lily-livered poufs and wretched.
I think that the political leadership of India heading the Government of India irrespective of their political ideologies is afflicted with a desire, be in the past, be it in the current and maybe in the future, especially the person who is the Prime Minister at that time, to be remembered in history as the person who resolved India’s problems with China and Pakistan and be known as a stateswoman/statesman.
This is driven by a feeling of a being a big brother, superpower and greatness from India’s ancient past and present which led to unfortunate things like the late Indira Gandhi releasing the 93,000 Pakistani Prisoners of Wars [POW]’s captured in the 1971 India-Pakistan War, the late Atal Bihari Vajpayee going to Pakistan and talking to the late General Pervez Musharraf and Narendra Modi inviting the leaders from the Indian subcontinent including Pakistan for his inauguration in 2014 and then like the late Atal Bihari Vajpayee going to Pakistan and on top of this hosting Xi Jinping in India.
Dear Bharat, you expect a lot from Room temp IQ politicians and their cohorts.
when I saw NSA wearing a apple smart watch I knew opsec has gone down the drain .
Indians are being blamed worldwide for scamming whereas it is the chinese intelligence led triads in Burma behind providing all the operational capacity from apk files to voip servers to payment gateway, Indians are just mules for bank access and English speaking capabilities. I would not be shocked if it later turns out to be a chinese influencing operation against India .
Reminder ; when are we getting look at your library and a list of must reads
Professor karnad,
Your work keep inspiring people like us who show keen interest in indias strategic matters. Don’t you think this kind of aggressive stance could lead to an all out war or a limited war like the 1967 one. Pakistan was not capable of penetrating our airspace, but china clearly is. I hope you are very well aware of the dangerously depleting squadron strength and very few no of actual advanced subs? Looking forward for your response. Thanks.
Try not to over-estimate China’s military prowess on the basis of equipment.
Professor, interesting article on your area of expertise. But in discussing China, you have been remiss in not giving your own informed take on the whereabouts of Xi and if he has been deposed in a palace coup by a PLA general. The entire world is in a speculation mode, so I expected you to insert a sentence or two here.
To be honest, I am focussed on what happens in India, rather than in CCP/CMC politics in Beijing
Fair point, but if the shifty General Zhang Youxia is running the show at present, Indian policymakers ought to be concerned. There would be repercussions in Ladakh and AP, besides more cat’s paw tactics with Pakistan.
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad a little bit off topic but please
in this 30 sec Clip a former CIA CT ops officer and a renowned whistle-blower who revealed about the CIA torture techniques to the world and went to jail for selling classified info his name John kirkakou
says that he was told by a Pakistani General that the Pakistan arsenal is the command and control of an American General so indians backed down indians have nothing to fear and the threat we had in 2002 of nuclear war doesn’t exist between too
1)do you consider this authentic and true
2)the chances are almost nil but if pakistan were to attack india with nukes first whom will we blame then
Americans?
would like to know your opinion on this
Hard to know what the Yanks and the Pakis are upto. As they say, expect the best but prepare for the worst.
Well what exactly is that prepare for worst
Global ICBM + thermonuclear warheads?
or anything else
Dr Karnad, I don’t agree with your analysis that Dalal Lama word is final as the Buddhists in Tibet (or China) are concerned. Tibetans are not illiterate peasants anymore who used to be the slaves for the Lamas. They too have their own agency. How can you give an orientalist and colonial position that Dalai Lama’s word and choice is last for the Tibetan people.
The Dalai Lama has long since stopped being a feudal entity, since before the 1913 Simla Treaty. He now carries moral heft and therefore loved and supported by Tibetans as representing their values and separate ethnic and cultural identity, which China is fast erasing.
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad a little bit offtopic but a curious question
let’s say the lines of communication between the SFC and Arihant-Class SSBNs or agni missiles groups are knocked out then what happens next
who will launch the remaining weapons?
who’s responsibility is it then?
That is a basic SSBN ops situation and is catered for
A propos the previous column “Whom to blame for the downed IAF aircraft in Sindoor“, we now have the latest assessment from the French authority: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/news/india-lost-1-rafale-jet-during-op-sindoor-but-pakistan-did-not-do-it-dassault-ceos-fresh-claim/videoshow/122323058.cms.
Could Professor Karnad please give his comments on this.
A desperate Dassault is on a “Save Rafale” mission.
Further to my previous post, there has appeared now another news confirming that no Rafale fighter was shot down by Pak in the recent clash:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/india/rafales-plural-top-defence-official-rejects-pakistan-s-op-sindoor-loss-claims/ar-AA1Ic09q?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=EDGEDB&cvid=14fb36dfb3d541698eeea2729811f474&ei=10
@BharatKarnad
just today another jaguar fighter crashed in rajasthan
2 pilots dead too
RIP they didn’t eject and had they ejected it would have fallen on civilian areas
this is the 4th crash of in the last 3 months
IAF is in shambles losing jets and pilots at such a faster rate
so embarrassing according to your assessment on the air force what do we lack behind in training, jet quality or what
The PAF fighter cader as far better skills
really would like to know the reason why is the rate of losses so high
would love to know your opinion
IAF pilots are not as good as their PAF counterparts. In fact, IAF has a lower dropout rate from the fighter stream. The Israeli AF is the most challenging in accepting only the very best from a pool of very, very good potential pilots.
@BharatKarnad
“When people tell me that if we buy a certain weapon system it will help in national security i am sorry that is not how it works rather if we put our resources into mk2 and amca our capabilities will multiply”
these were your words that you said in years old debate on a news channel when the government was planning to get the rafale and in past when they got jaguar too
only if they had listened to you
now you see jaguars, rafales , mirages all are crashing either are getting shot down or there is some serious problem with the jet itself
there are 2 IAFs in this world both poles apart
one undertakes daring missions to take out an adversary’s nuclear programme other one is confused with procurement
Professor karnad please consider this as a request if you have some time to spare other then your upcming title please write some articles on IAF and the way ahead for them
your views are much needed
thanks
@BharatKarnad
was scrolling on wikki about the former lists of CINC of the strategic forces command
and i noticed a pattern that they are kind of rotating officers of the three services for such a important and crucial post
someone who was in engineers arm of the forces is appointed as the commander of SFC and after 1 year he is appointed as a corps commander again.
don’t know why but this looks quite unprofessional
any policy recommendation from your side on this
Been advocating —in my books, other writings and even on this blog — a specialist nuclear cadre for each of the services as a remedy for rotational postings
@BharatKarnad
By nuclear cadre you mean selected people who deal and think about nuclear only
1)why hasn’t it being done yet such a crucial decision should have been implemented in the 2000s itself.
any idea about the Pakistani and chinese command are they too based on rotational postings. I think they too follow the same old system please correct me if I am wrong
2)i wish people in our SFC too read your books yours are the only ones that are detailed practical and have realist policies these will be great for our SFC officers.
Regards
As a former chairman, chiefs of staff committee said — ‘your nuclear weapons & Indian security is the bible for the SFC’.
At a different thought, rotational postings allow for serving officers who are up to date with adversaries latest tactics and strategies and development to be posted , alongside their role is to ensure that payloads reach their targets through their vector group (land,sea and air) which does not need proficiency in nuclear but their own weapon system. All the other part of target selection, war head selection need nuclear know-how , but with two enemies the plans will seldom change
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad a very curious question about the deployment strategy of the Arihant class SSBN
How will our future SSBN fleet operate I mean will it follow the Russian strategy of bastion patrol i.e safeguarding the SSBN in our own territory like placing them near bay of bengal under the protection of Navy vessels and then launching SLBMs during the time of crisis and hence the flying time of K5 from bay of bengal to shanghai will be high
Or will our fleet operate like the American open ocean patrol CASD that is sending and displacing the fleet into vast unlimited ocean like indian ocean or north of Australia so that it can go near adversaries coastline and then launch giving them less time to react
Both the patterns have their own advantages and disadvantage
which one suits indian SSBN. This has been discussed very less
would like to know your opinion on the likely deployment strategy
Regards
Bastion
Dr Karnad, As I mentioned, Trump is threatening India to stop all trades with Russia. Wonder what our Mr Jaishankar will do ? I believe this could be capitulation time for us
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad may I recommend you write down a new blog on jaishankar’s latest visit to china and implications on india whether it was a success or failure
your detailed views on this topic will be most helpfull.