[Israeli PM Netanyahu & IsAF planes on flight line]
US President Donald Trump forbade Israel from striking Iranian nuclear sites. Because he wanted credit for a nuclear deal with Tehran he was in the process of negotiating. Netanyahu told Trump during his April visit — nothing doing, forcing the US government to pullout Americans from the region. In the face of American opposition, Israel unleashed a devastating series of air strikes very early this morning that may not have taken out the deep — half-mile deep underground centrifuge uranium enrichment facility at Fordow in the mountains near Qom, for lack of both the big deep earth penetrator bomb and large bomber aircraft to carry and drop it. US’ nonparticpation meant Israel did not have this combo of decisive weapon and delivery system.
But the strikes may have hit the secondary centrifuge plant at Natanz, other N-installations in Isfahan, ballistic missile factories, and longrange missile batteries as well. Not a country to leave a job half done, separate IsAF sorties decapitated the Iranian nuclear program and military leadership — killing the chief nuclear scientists and engineers and military authority, including Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian defence forces, and Major General Hossein Salami, chief of Pasdaran — Islamic Revolutionary Security Guard. The aerial war is being complemented, moreover, by Mossad activity on the ground inside Iran to neutralise, among other things, Iranian air defence systems, in a combined operation called ‘Rising Lion’. Interestingly. Rising Lion is open-ended with Mossad and IsAF acting in tandem to denature the Iran threat, once and for all.
Switch to Sindoor situation May 10. Air-to-ground strikes with long range missiles fired from Indian airspace — mainly Brahmos and Scalp, had afforded India near complete air dominance with the destruction of the C3 (command, control, communications) hub making coordinated air activity by PAF nearly impossible. The Indian army, at that point, should have pivoted smartly to a land offensive to, at a minimum, capture and reclaim Haji Pir in the disputed territory of Pak-occupied Kashmir. Of course, the Indian army had not prepared for any such “strike and annex” operation — the Indian military never prepares for capitalising on any half-chance offered on the battlefield, and of course it was not nimble enough to mobilise and push with the forces in the Uri, Mandi, Poonch subsectors to take the Salient in Pakistani hands, which has been a thorn in India’s fight against terrorism.
Instead, the next thing we see is the Indian Director General, Military Operations, for no good military reason — unless he was instructed by the Modi government to do so, accepting a Pakistani request for ceasefire! Sure, the fact that the Modi regime reacted so bitterly against Trump’s claiming success for ending this “three day” farce of an India-Pakistan “war”, suggests Prime Minister Modi was indeed arm-twisted into ending hostilities. The US has made no bones about just how close it is to Pakistan and why it is indispensable to American plans for the region. The retiring commander-in-chief, US Central Command, General Michael Kurilla, spelled it out — he praised Pakistan as a “phenomenal” partner in the fight against the Islamic State Khorasan.
The duo of Modi and Jaishankar seem, however, not to be convinced by something Washington daily broadcasts — that Trump is for “America First” and would kick NATO and Asian allies and partners aside if that served his purposes. They really believe India can close in with America and displace Pakistan. What does Kurilla know! So, we witnessed the jaunts at Indian taxpayer’s expense by MPs to faroff points to convince disinterested countries that (1) terrorism is bad, (2) Pakistan is terrorism Central, and (3) that India had won Sindoor! As far as I can make out, these trips, some to Islamic countries, had zero impact — Shashi Tharoor’s mellifluous verbosity, in particular, not making the slightest dent in Washington or New York.
The difference — and the real story here — is that while the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, claiming self-defence, attacked Iran and attacked again, even as Tel Aviv fights with Hamas in Gaza — the classic 2-front situation, and shrugged off US attempts at intervention, Modi gave into Trump without much coaxing and called off Sindoor before it had accomplished anything of note. And this when for Israel, US is a lifeline — for India, only a provider of resident visas for family members of senior GOI and military officers! The poor Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan was left handling the detritus of the Indian government’s buckling under. But, by his own reckoning, was just hitting Pakistani air bases the sole objective of the Operation by which outcome Sindoor is to be judged? That’s what Jaishankar said in Europe! How does it make any military sense to take out Pakistani air defence (SILLACS in Sargodha, etc) and PAF activity, and follow up with doing NOTHING?
It has always been a wonder to me just how quickly the Indian government and establishment folds at the merest hint of US/Western pressure — its own stated policy and the national interest, apparently of no account. This basic weakness at the heart of the Indian system is why India will remain forever — a middling power of little consequence.
It is not just Modi, Indira Gandhi, to remind everybody, was the one who called off — at the very last minute — the Israeli airstrikes in 1982 that were to be staged out of India that I have detailed in my books and in posts on this blog, to bomb Kahuta, and thus taken a nuclearised Pakistan off our concerns. We neither do the job ourselves, nor allow good friends to do it! What we do, however, is pretend and pretend some more about how Great and Good India is, even as a lowly, bankrupt, Pakistan regularly gets up our collective nose.
But, by way of compensating for lack of political will and fortitude to stand up for the national interest, and for genuflecting before Trump, Xi, anybody else, the Indian government keeps denuding the country’s treasury to fund wasteful procurements of useless combat aircraft — more Rafales or F-21s, Su-57s, more this and more that, most of this stuff that the Ukraine War has proved is obsolete, just to give the impression India has a great military — a military that rarely takes the initiative to do anything meaningful on the battlefield, is asked to do nothing meaningful, but merely to look good with new and shiny weaponry!
Security Wise 
Professor Karnad,
First of all respect and thanks to you for playing such a critical role in designing india’s nuclear doctrine.
Sir, in 2014 Saab offered India and drdo that they will transfer the complete technology of the newest variant of their Gripen aircraft (Gripen E) which is a very state of the art and advanced plane it has got many unique technologies that even Rafale and F-35 like potent machines don’t have . Like it has extremely advanced mission computers even more advanced than Rafale and F-35, it’s an unsung thing but it has the Best EW suite in the world and it’s the most flexible and most reactive in the world. Its the only aircraft till now in its class which has a Gan-aesa radar which can physically move itself and what not!! . Sweden (saab) offered its 100 % tech transfer to India and with full source codes and ipr rights and even added that we are ready to re design it as a stealth aircraft and it would be ready in 2-3 years rather than waiting for other potent planes (like AMCA mk-2 and Rafale F5 for 10 years) , we can mass produce them as many as we want and if we integrate next gen technology it would become a true 5th gen plane and we could have 300-400 of them.
The second opportunity missed by India is that when we bought 150000 sig-716i rifles from the USA in 2019 -2020 after rising border tensions, that time sir you know that company sig- sauer was on the verge of bankruptcy as it wasn’t getting much orders from the us military and it was stuck in expensive court trials in EU. It was a golden opportunity for India to just pay 2 billion dollars to the company and ask them that transfer the complete 100 % tech of your state of the art rifle and give us complete ipr rights and let Indian companies like adani defense and sss defense make it on their own. You know sig-716 uses aerospace grade steel and a highly potent gas piston system, we could have transformed our small arms industry. According to you sir why do we just let go such golden strategic opportunities is it the IAS babus Or politicians. As whatever comes under the pmo its a runaway success. Looking forward for your response. Thanks.
“why do we just let go such golden strategic opportunities” — you tell me! There were many more such missed opportunities — Embraer, for instance.
Agree ccompletely!!
“Sir, thanks for the response. You’re absolutely right about Embraer too — another missed game-changing opportunity. It almost feels like India’s strategic class has a blind spot when it comes to tech acquisition. Do you believe the only solution is to bring all major defense-tech initiatives directly under the PMO with DRDO, private players, and foreign OEMs working as a ‘Mission Team’? Or is there any way to structurally reform the MoD and decision-making process?”
Indians are raised with wrong history. Gandhi and Nehru both were British planted agents by their liberal section. Gandhi openly urged Indians to sign up and fight for the imperial British empire during both the world wars. Savarkar and the Hindu right wing of that time was busy in pointing fingers at the Muslims to their British masters.
The English very cunningly used terms like ‘martial race’ to enlist Indians as their cannon fodders during both the world wars. Very few people must be aware that English nurses were prohibited to tend to injured Indian soldiers to prevent any potential romantic alliance. British officers and Indian soldiers (motivated by their fascination of white skinned masters and meager salary)
The only reason British left India because they were afraid of these soldiers rebelling against them since after the end of the Second World War the British stopped paying salaries to them.
Real freedom fighters of the country were guys like Bhagat Singh, Azad, Subhas Chandra Bose and their associates.
Post 1947, Indian government didn’t even have the common sense to change the name of the caste based regiments.
Majority of Indians were, are and continue to be white skin worshippers. Jaishankar’s son I believe resides in US. One of Doval’s son holds a British passport. For Gujarati’s US is ‘El Dorado’. Modi is no exception. He doesn’t possess the guts to defy Uncle Sam.
Gaurav@ — You have anticipated one of the chapters in my book under writing!
@Professor Karnad, thanks a lot sir for your kind words. Your compliment means a lot to me. I wish you all the best in finishing your book.
I firmly believe that the names of all Indians, (who fought and died for the imperial British army during both the world wars) inscribed on war memorials across the country and especially on India Gate in Delhi should be erased.
These people were mercenaries and joined the British for their own selfish reasons. Why should the nation honor them?
Only the names of fallen army personnel who fought for Indian army post 1947 should be mentioned on the aforesaid memorial.
@BharatKarnad
a far more devastating strike when compared to india’s sindoor Israel is a no nonsense country and such ops prove it again and again.
is the nuclear weaponization of iran a good thing for india
like is it in our interest if iran were to have a small arsenal of fission bombs
also what yield of weapons would iran require in its armoury if it were to prevent an American intervention in future like you say india needs megaton bombs with long range ICBM potential to neutralize American designs and advances in indian Ocean region in future
your valuable opinions ?
Reminded of what Dr Bhabha said in a secret 1955 msg to Nehru (paraphrasing): More nuclear powers, international peace more likely.
@BharatKarnad
and the fact is such a world is totally against American interest.
they will do everything they can through covert or overt means to prevent the further nuke weaponization of any nation also to include thermonuclear testing by india
why do Americans want to become “dadas” of this planet
just today Trump for the 13th time again repeated that he stopped a nuclear war between india and pakistan i mean ridiculous
It is very difficult to understand and analyse america
United States’s Deep State in India is Indian Bureaucracy. America is the New Britain and Indian government is the Colonial Slave. Nothing changes even after 200+ years.
Nice Article Sir India is yet to come out of minimalistic syndrome ! But Indian forces are always great and can do wonders if given orders Jai Hind 🇮🇳
Yahoo Mail: Search, organise, conquer
Chill professor 😎, The game has just started, we will see intresting tactics and strategies in coming days from Israelis and iranians , comparing rising lion with sindoor is far fetched , you damn well known our govts repeated tomfoolery, it is better to sit back and marvel at the sight and actions of Israelis , More so it is usa vs Iran than israel vs Iran , you know shipping lines and nuclear are worth the conflict
Email from Dr V Siddhartha, former Science adviser to Defence Minister
V Siddhartha
Fri, 13 June at 12:43 pm
Re ur: “This basic weakness at the heart of the Indian system is why India will remain forever — a middling power of little consequence.”
and ….
” But, by way of compensating for lack of political will and fortitude to stand up for the national interest, ..”
Except for a few silly Karnads, the national interest IS to remain ..”a middling power of little consequence.”
Q asked in several RTs/seminars I have had to endure: “why should we want to be a great power”?
Yea, Sid, have faced this question too, too many times for me not to feel queasy!
Prof., you’re not alone. I for one share your feeling of queasiness. Indeed, it’s nauseating to read the parts of your books where you recount our historical strategic miscalculations by the timid willed politico-bureaucracy. I term it the ‘Arjuna complex’ of the Indian mind. Losing the WILL to act at the very moment when it is required the most.
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sunnee votes moolaa mohmad moodee for free
yaahood bombs sheeaa, saoodee dances in glee
roosee bombs ookraeen, cheenee supplies ghee
amrika votes porkee padree donald duck for free
Prof., what should concern us more are the accusations that IAEA leaked the identities of high level Iranian nuclear scientists to Israel. How much does India coordinate with IAEA with regards to such information, can we really trust them as a neutral body anymore ??
Absolutely not! And that is among the main reasons why those of us, including Trombay heavyweights PK Iyengar, AN Prasad, A Gopalakrishnan, who strongly opposed the N-deal with the US negotiated by Jaishankar, warned stridently against “islanding” our weapons directorate — which helps IAEA to monitor the work of Indian scientists, etc, and putting 13 of our Heavy Water reactors under IAEA safeguards.
Holy F, Prof. If these incidents aren’t ringing alarm bells in Indian security administration, our national security as you put aptly somewhere, is “Ram bharose” !
Straightforward question, Is Jaishankar a CIA asset ? His actions seem to point towards it, with a child in usa who would not .
Aren’t the civilian nuclear facilities of P5 also under IAEA voluntary safeguards? How is Indian agreement different from what the P5 have?
The P-5 are not obligated under NPT but allow monitoring of civilian N-programmes, not sure how much?
But it is nothing as intrusive as what India agreed to — and P-5 states transfer reprocessed fuel
from civilian to weapons uses, on a dime.
professor , with all info out it seems that absorption capacity, secondary communication relays and covert operations capacity with access to far off areas in battle zone area and speed , are the deciding factor as seen in Ukraine and Iran conflicts
with autonomous systems we might as well see that war of attrition become oriented towards economic resilience than what it is has been earlier where in we see who has capacity to loose more men in war( russia ww2) before the society collapses (election in Ukraine and the war ends for sure)and social support backs off
In democratic nations war is ideological conflict but here Iran has permanent leader which makes it weaker as group of people with influence and power gets smaller in such institutions and you don’t have steady supply of leaders whereas similar ops of killing chiefs in paks wouldn’t be successful as they have larger institution, not implying that our approach was right for them
as well influencing operations become integral in democratic nations as elected leaders have to cater to public opinion and a influencing operations can make public and leaders back off from war as we see with china , ( an older diplomat told me this anecdote that when mao sent campaign to India , objective was to have fear in Indian hearts and minds for years to come) he was successful in it that still to this day military leaders and politicians have hesitation towards china , where mossad fails is in influencing ops they can’t gain public support for their cause
Professor when i see deployment of Chinese forces in our borders, if we look at each bases the logistics don’t make sense they can’t rush in troops due to sheer altitude gain on G219. Currently they have oxygen supply on troops buses for that still troop availability is 80- 90 % unable to find the paper it was Chinese doctor they are using medicine protocol to support the elevation gains something unseen in world , their ads are concentrated on arunachal sector which is plausible with tawang and other factors
but what the hell chinese want to do in ladakh sector ?
why don’t we get good quality research paper in india with data points even osint is full of data here you have people theorizing in thin air with no data
Dr Karnad , Mr Narendra Modi is not interested in hard tangible results. As noted in your 2018 book Staggering Forward ,Mr Modi toured US as a 44 years old nobody , attending US State Department supported/funded events. Compounded with the problem of him not having faith in the Indian Science, Tech , Army,etc and surrounding himself with a hostile and parasitic bureaucracy ,vast majority who spit on Mr. Modi’s name and the ones who are slightly more ambitious , drape themselves in “Modi Thought “, become his acolyte and get rewarded with goodies like plum postings, guaranteed governorships post retirement , cabinet positions and so on .
Mr. Modi , it seems is unaware of the Kafka-esque situation that he is in where the problems of the present require anti- statist/revolutionary stances like dismantling the administrative state ( which involves changing Article 311 , doing away with Cabinet Secretary Pay Ceiling Convention , “Draining the Swamp” out of Ministries and undoing Parkinson’s Law ( i.e having more scientists than bureaucrats in Department of Science and Tech , and not the opposite as it exists right now), But Born and brought up in Statist Minded RSS and Statist Minded India of the late 60s and 70s and his fascination with technology (especially digital tech) , has led him to think along “Smartphone Statist ” lines , where he has kept the ugly bureaucratic structure intact , surrounded himself with stooges of the bureaucracy but tries cosmetic surgery of it by creating all these smartphone based digital services and applications (calling it “Digital Stack”). Unable to understand this Statist Anti-Statist Dichotomy and under pressure to deliver something to his electorate before the next major state election, he decides to escape to all these foreign countries like US to get whatever peanuts they throw at him ( More VC Investment , Low-Mid Tech Technology Transfer , Praising his banal policies , etc) in return for leaving the literal state treasury at their doorsteps .
If India ever becomes a great power , it would be the greatest fluke in the history mankind.
Dr Karnad, First of all, Israel has said that it did keep the US in loop as without the US supplying the Israelis with all sorts of help , this would not have been possible. Trump himself has said very clearly that the US did negotiation with Iran just to create a misperception on the minds of the Iranian leaders. I don’t know from where you get the idea that the Israelis acted without US help. This is false assumption. Iran and Pakistan can’t be compared. The later has far more capabilities in store than the former.
Try not missing the woods for the trees. Netanyahu forced the issue, US had to adjust, with
Trump doing his best to wringe some credit for himself. And no Iran is more “powerful”
than Pakistan — nuclear weapons apart, courtesy China, assisted by US. Reason wwhy, I have been
calling for nuclear missile arming states on China’s periphery. And for erecting guardrails in
relations with America — something the Modi regime will, post-Sindoor, perhaps heed.
Dr Karnad, This is a plan hatched by the West , which calls for destruction of both Russia and Iran as sovereign states. The attack on Iran by Israel followed a similar attack by Ukraine using drones against Russian nuclear weapons. I thought erudite scholar like you will see through this. The ultimate plan by the West is to ensure overthrow and destruction of both Russia and Iran so as to prevent alternative energy supply sources for China. This is the ultimate Western grand strategy. Ukraine and Israel are just hands, US is the brain behind everything.
Your take is a bit overwrought. Russia is nowhere as feeble as you make out. Neither is the Ayatollah-controlled state in Iran.
Israel, a martial technocracy, knows the ontology of ‘desert’ inside and outside of its borders. It does not delude itself with notions of ‘same culture’ or ‘similar wedding rituals’ –apparently, for some, the hallmark of kith and kin. And like all Western powers its expansive mindset drives strategic policies.
In short, Israel has Shatrubodh.
A more strategically minded India would have adopted the Chinese model of governance, reassured Americans of their support against China while simultaneously guaranteeing the Chinese a friendly strategic posture —keeping both nations occupied with each other for us to de-desertify and de-populate India and South Asia; and grow economically, militarily and biologically.
Dear Sir,
Israele has already achieved its goal of nuke facilities destruction. It may try to also remove islamic regime of Iran as a secondary goal.
Operation Sindoor has also achieved its objective of hitting pak terror bases and a bonus of damage to airbases and possibly nuke storage facilities.
Only difference is our goal itself was very limited one.
We still not come out of Pritviraj Chauhan syndrome of giving enemy second chance. When we had achieved air superiority, we should have at least destroyed pak naval assets, army assets, very heavy damage to pak military infrastructure, atleast capture Haji pir and other non populated areas of pok to avoid any new insurgencies.
I feel we missed a golden opportunity. Do you think pak is foolish enough to give another opportunity in foreseeable future?
Iran’s N-capability has not been destroyed. And Pak will strengthen gaps/weaknesses India could have exploited in Sindoor.
Dear Sir,
Do you expect more Israeli strikes to completely destroy Iran’s N capability if it is not already destroyed.
Pak closing weakness/gaps depends on who is going to give them weapons. If they get only upgraded versions from China then i doubt it ll make any real difference as India would have also closed gaps/weakness.
One of the major collateral damage of Operation Sindoor is Chinese defense industry and Turkish drone industry.
Do you think China is only paper dragon as its air deference, missiles and aircraft failed miserably even if we assume they have given much lower quality weapons to Pak. This identified Chinese weakness changes the equation between both of them in LAC?
Do you think India has edge in quality of weapons and China has edge only in quantity of weapons if we compare both?
Have always believed that China is a paper dragon, and India needs to challenge it militarily to prove the point!
Exactly without bunker busting heavy bombs and strategic bombers which currently isreal doesnot have…and so still Nuclear site is yet to be destroyed as it is under deep underground and under deep mountainous area …Isreal my knowingly forces USA to stall negotiations and i think now trump taking credit and isreal also flatering Trump that they had blessing of TRUMP…..
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad in a recent podcast you mention that after the 1998 tests American policy makers openly advocated to freeze and put a cap on indian nuclear weapons capabilities after they got to know that the s1 thermonuclear device didn’t work
and pakistan too they had planned to put a cap on their weapons yield too
can you please tell about this who advocated it and is there any public document where i can read about this
your valued opinions?
Detailed analysis with copious references in my book — Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security 1st ed (2002) & 2nd ed (2005)
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad one question has always bothered me
This israel and pakistani equation wrt to nuclear weapons.
like nowadays there are debates going on on TV many so called defense analyst of pakistan or simply to say madarsaa graduates are boastfully saying that iran does not have nukes pakistan has it and for israel pakistani arsenal is a bigger challenge
is this true after the recent decapitation of iran i doubt any country has the courage to do it but can any mad lunatic paki general launch ballistics on tel Aviv
is such a scenario even possible specially the threat posed by pakistani MRBM and IRBMs i mean they are pointed towards india But can the direction be changed to west asia
Would like to know your thoughts?
NO
@BharatKarnad
Do you still advocate for a strategic bomber for IAF possibly Tu-160
After what happened with the Russian fleet of Tu22 and Tu 95 recently some 30 bombers knocked out by cheap drones.
You said that IAF has no strategic weapons
Doesn’t such incidents put serious questions on the efficiency and safety of such expensive platforms they are becoming sitting ducks
Imagine god forbid if a Tu-160 at adampur base is knocked out by a FPV drone wouldn’t that be embarrassing
Would like to know your opinions on the importance of bombers in 2025 and future
Absolutely, yes, Tu-160 ‘White Swan’ whether IAF likes it or not. Why do you think Tu-160 bases were not struck? Because it is a tripwire. Russia’d have responded by vaporising UKR
isn’t tu 95 a trip wire too
aren’t you exaggerating this sir I mean sure tu 160 is a a part of the triad and delivery system but no way putin’s gonna use nukes even if a few white swans are knocked out
pls correct me if I am wrong
Can drop NWs, but Pretty old. And 1 leg of triad taken out, and I’m wrong?!
I get your point now taking out tu 160 means kind of decapitating the triad and hampering nuke strike capability
now it makes sense thanks
Email from Lt Gen Balli Pawar (Ret), former Director General, Army Aviation
On Sunday 15 June 2025 at 01:54:49 pm
Dear Bharat I do not agree with your assessment at all’
Americans were fully in the loop and fully supported the Israeli decision. It would be naive to think otherwise.
Look what is happening in GAZA. Would any other country have got away with it. There is no comparison here and please note Pak is a nuclear capable country unlike Iran. Hence the comparison is not fair at all.
Rgds
Gen Pawar
Sorry, Balli, but let’s cut to the chase!
I need to point out that nuclear is my field and, as I have analysed in great detail in my books that the nuclear overhang is very long, wide and elastic vis a vis Pakistan and, hence, have strongly recommended exploiting this fact of life. Indian conventional military like the Indian govt, I am afraid, pays more attention to American/Western analysts with a vested interest in keeping the nonsense of N-flashpoint alive, than paying heed to me (alas, there’s no one else here with the requisite expertise — oh! there are many JNU types who approach deterrence from the peace-nonproliferation angle, unlike me who has looked at deterrence strictly from the point of view of war!).
The one and only thing GOI/mil did right this time around with Sindoor was call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff (with great trepidation, I understand) by directly striking targets in west Punjab. So, what happened? NOTHING, as I had long predicted! More the reason that not pivoting on May 10 to take Hajir Pir and establishing a policy precedent of carving out pieces of POK for every terrorist incident and incentivising GHQ, Rawalpindi, to formally freeze the LOC as intl border, is a such a huge MISSED OPPORTUNITY!!!
regards,
Bharat
Sindoor looks like an incomplete operation, no military leader/ security man can order for such halt, it’s very confusing
Email from Lt. General Arun Sahni (Ret), former GOCINC, South Western Command
Arun Sahni
Sun, 15 June at 10:28 pm
Dear Bharat,Thank you for sharing. I concur with Gen Pawar’s assessment that the US was in support of Israeli strikes on Iran.The continuing conflict by Netanyahu is bank rolled and materially supported by US.Trump had given Iran 60 days to agree to his bidding on nuclear issues. Before the attack he did say that he can intervene to stop this on Iran. Please note the Israeli attack is on the 61st day –a day after the deadline.
On the issue of encashing the opportunity available on 10th May by the IA- It is the inadequacy of revisiting the End state and redefining the politico Mil Obj of the operation. This lack of inadequacy of Higher Direction is still a cog that needs to be addressed in due course. It is NOT the inadequacy of the IA which was and is always ready to execute these operations on short notice.
Best Wishes
Arun Sahni
@BharatKarnad
I am impressed by this israeli decapitating strike
but you see as newton said every action has an equal and opposite reaction now the Iranians are striking back with 100s of hypersonics and ballistic missiles on tel aviv and population centres of israel entire locality of apartments and houses destroyed in tel aviv
but sir what does israel wants to achieve do they want to kill khamenei then what?
what is the main objective and endgoal for this conflict
your valued opinion?
Per Netanyahu, start a popular revolt against the ayatollah-run regime!
and followed by installation of pro israel pro america son of shah of iran
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad i have high regards for you but curious to know who was your “guru” in america during your young days in California
who taught you nuclear detterence literature? Would like to know the source from where you got such immense knowledge
sir have you ever taught young aspiring scholars or are your lectures reserved for senior officers rank at army war colleges as your intro on many websites says
Bernard Brodie at UCLA, and participation in a California-wide ‘California Arms Control Seminar’ in the 1970s featuring the likes of Albert Wolstetter, Malcolm Hoag, Michael Intrilligator, et al
No, I am afraid my lectures to the military have been at the level of Major & equivalent at the Defence Services Staff College, Wellington, Higher Command Courses at the Army War College, Mhow; College of Naval Warfare, Goa, College of Air Warfare, Secunderabad, at the highest levels (Lt Generals and Major generals and equivalent) in CORE (Combined Operational Review and Evaluation), and Brigadier/Major General levels in the Strategic Nuclear Orientation Course I conceived and conducted for the Defence Ministry for many years, and now discontinued (!).
Dear Sir,
Iran is openly telling Pak will fire nukes at Israele if Israele fires nukes at Iran. Pak officially denied any such assurance given to Iran but backed Iran in the name of Islamic brotherhood.
I think Pak is playing double game with both Iran and US.
What is your assessment about role of Pakistan in this conflict.
@BharatKarnad
never heard about anyone of them except brodie i think he wrote the US air force doctrine something like that but would definitely read their stuff too
I see your days in america had a big impact on you i mean your hawkish and realist mindset and your aggressive policies
but why did you leave america I sometimes feel that realist and patriotic people like you don’t get the due recognition and attention in india that you deserve you would have done better in america sir
also did you got a PhD from a prestigious Institute like UCLA?
my regards
Passed my PhD qualifiers in 1974 and then fell out with Brodie, and left! So, no PhD!
@BharatKarnad
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/indias-nuclear-arsenal-increased-next-gen-canisterised-mirv-capable-missiles-says-sipri/amp-11750058468142.html
as per the recent SIPRI report on world nuclear forces it just got published a few hours ago
the report says that india’s SFC has now operational canisterized next gen weapons possibly the mirved version of Agni 5 and Agni prime
Now as I know canisterized missiles give us launch on warning capability
but you see this can be confusing too if a adversary where to launch a missile towards us we too have to go then and launch . Now what if the incoming missile is not a nuclear one and we consider it a nuclear one and in response retaliate with our nukes tipped missile
doesn’t this create a apocalypse type scenario also if canisterization is so good can’t we do it with all missiles
your thoughts
Discussed at length in my 2008 book — India’s Nuclear Policy, and my 2018 book — Staggering Forward: Narenra Modi and India’s Global Ambition
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad when our SFC decides to increase the number of nuclear warheads one of the biggest opposition to it is the cost
we are are scared and bothered that the maintenance of the warheads and delivery systems requires Huge amount of money
can you please through some light on it is it true are nuclear weapons that expensive
I haven’t seem this part being discussed that much in your books and blogs
I have in ‘Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security’! By the way, it is far less expensive to build and sustain nuclear forces than to maintain a conventional military.
@BharatKarnad
Dr Karnad , Ashley J Tellis , in the latest issue of Foreign Policy, which you can read here https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/indias-great-power-delusions?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=fa_edit&utm_campaign=pre_release_brooks_vagle_actives&utm_content=20250616&s=ESPZZ005U3&utm_term=ESPZZ005U3 ,
seems to have appropriated(read stolen) ideas and criticisms of Indian state from your books to establish the fact that India is delusional in its great power persuit. He uses your pointers like weak manufacturing , poor defence reforms , ill-liberal state , no security system in S.E asia to state that india will not become great power. But here comes the twist , while in your books you have advocated strategic thinking and internal reform , he advocates Indo-US alliance . He further states , if this doesn’t happen then India would be left to be fend for it itself.
On top of that , he occupies a chair at Carnegie funded by TATAs. Basically guzzling monies of India and ridiculing her at the same time. Why is the Indian State enamoured with these kind of people
@BharatKarnad
Professor karnad according to the latest SIPRI , FAS reports and other think tanks reports it is absolutely clear that the Chinese are increasing their warheads at an alarming rate.
Your policy as written in nuclear weapons and indian security is to match the chinese weapons by weapons number by number .
what number do you suggest for 2030 when the chinese will be having some 1000 force levels?
also during cold war when tensions between nation’s were at the highest level and nuclear war was eminent during that time USSR had some 40000 thermonuclear weapons compare that too the British and french nuclear weapons combined that even hardly crossed 1000 still they were able to detter the soviets
why is that and can’t india do that when we will still have some 200 compared to the chinese will be having 1000 in 2030-2035 . We are in much better position then france or britian in the ratio
Would like to know your valued opinion?
thanks
Have to study this, perhaps for an updated version of Nuclear Ws and Ind Security
@BharatKarnad
Sir recently I was reading the SIPRI annual nuclear forces report and also I looked through a map that
how smartly the chinese have covered nearly all of the high value targets in northern india through their DF21 and DF26 MRBMs and IRBMs which are having a 500kiloton warhead aimed at us
I mean they don’t need to bring in a DF-41 ICBM to strike us these DF-26 deployed in tibet can take out any indian city or target
now come to our missiles as their high value whealth producing cities are far away majority of our missiles can’t reach their only Agni 4 and Agni5 and upcoming A6 ,K5 ,K6 can reach that far and we will have them in a very small number only
the flying time for the chinese DF’s to reach indian target is also less when compared to Agni’s flying time to reach Chinese target
this seems suicidal
what is your policy recommendation to deal with such a buildup of chinese missiles in tibetan plateau
Would like to know your valued opinion?
Only long range Agni missiles — IRBMs, ICBMs — as advocated in Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security
that means increased spending because ICBMs are not cheap
But what’s your views on the defense budget of the country
Do you also advocate a 100 billion dollar defense budget currently we are between some 70-80 and a large part of that is also used in pensions
Whereas the chinese according to official source spend 150-200 dollars and american estimates for them is some 400+ billion dollars
what is the defense budget requirement for us for upcoming uncertain future let’s say till 2035
Extrapolate from my Nuclear Weapons & Indian Security figures