[A properly trim General Asim Munir getting his Field Marshal’s baton from a glum-looking PM, Shebaz Sharif, and an effusively servile, President Asif Ali Zardari — a revealing pic of the investiture ceremony posted by Dr Moeen Pirzada, a Pakistani journalist ]
Some critical bit of information on Op Sindoor has come to hand. The success of the Pakistan Air Force in innovatively using its ex-Chinese JC-10C platform, the PL-15 air-to-air (A2A) longrange missile, and the ex-Swedish Saab 2000 AEWACS (airborne early warning and control system), in bringing down an IAF Rafale outside Bhatinda on May 7, went to Pak army chief General Asim Munir’s head.
Brimming with an excess of confidence, he vaingloriously guaranteed Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and senior members of his cabinet that he “would sort out the Indians in 48 hours!” 48 hours!! As promised by Munir, the initiation of his plan for an aerial attack by missiles and drones on important IAF and Indian strategic nodes, was scheduled for 0100 hours May 10.
Unfortunately for Munir, his boastful declaration in Islamabad was picked up by Indian intelligence. And an ambitious counter-plan for a slate of surprise, simultaneous, mass attacks on critical targets was prepared. A combination of Indian fighter aircraft firing Scalp air-to-ground (A2G) missiles and the Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles, and land-based Brahmos went in a little past midnight May 10, and preempted the Pakistani plan. The devastation caused by the Indian attacks spelled the end to Munir’s fanciful strike scheme, resulting in Director General, Military Operations, Pakistan army, Lieutenant General Kashif Abdullah, who had haughtily turned down the Indian DGMO’s offer of ceasefire after Indian missiles had struck Muridke and Bahawalpur on May 7, now called his opposite number Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai, waving a white flag.
But, how did this happen?
Because the first wave of missiles destroyed the carefully chosen and strategically crucial target — PAF’s central command, control and communications (C3) centre — the nerve centre of the Pakistan Air Force, housed at the Nur Khan air base in Chaklala, outside Rawalpindi, home also to Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division — the country’s nuclear secretariat. The PAF, it turns out, had no redundant communications setup.
With the entire C3 hub in ruins, the communications links to all the principal PAF air bases hosting combat aircraft, missiles and drones, disappeared as well. These bases were further attrited by the waves of Indian missile and airborne A2G attacks on the bases (Sukkur, Bholari, Jacobabad, et al). The low level air defence SILLACS (Siemens Low Level Air Control System) in Sargodha, it would appear, was separately struck as well.
There was a touch of the usual intra-mural oneupmanship — a feature of all India-Pakistan interactions, in the quiet jubilation at the Indian end, and much satisfaction at Munir and the Pak ‘establishment’ being “sorted out”!
Incidentally, the attack on PAF’s C3 hub at Chaklala collaterally took out a C-130 transporter parked 100 yards away on the tarmac, and the A2G Scalp attack decimated one of the six Saab 2000s parked in the hangar at Bholari. These night time strikes permitted the Pakistanis to clean up the debris at all these stricken airbases before dawn. Two JF-17s may also have been hit.
So, how did the PAF get the Rafale?
The Indian strike sortie comprised the lead Rafale that was to fire its weapon and a buddy Rafale 150 kms to the rear, flying at a higher altitude, and using its radars to scan and surveil the Pakistani airspace to find targets. After finding an appropriate target, the target info was to be transmitted to the lead Rafale for it to engage the enemy. Except, the PAF strike triad, getting inside the IAF sortie’s OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act) Loop, oriented to target and fired before the Rafale pilot could cue to his target. A second can make a world of a difference. That Pak A2A missile brought down the IAF plane.
What is difficult to understand is why the Spectra electronic warfare system on the Rafale failed so miserably in picking up the PAF’s strike triad before the latter homed in for the Rafale kill? Indeed, the Rafale pilot apparently had no reaction time — his radar spotted the incoming PL-15 when the latter was just 50 kms away and moving in fast. 50 kms afforded the IAF pilot just over TWENTY NINE seconds — just enough time to activate his ejection seat and to land safely.
The Spectra EW system in the Rafale was ballyhooed as extremely advanced tech and was supposedly the standout feature of the French aircraft developed by two French companies — Thales and MBDA. But let Wikipedia describe Spectra: “Thales Spectra EW — Système de Protection et d’Évitement des Conduites de Tir du Rafale (literally: System of Protection and Fire Lines Avoidance of the Rafale) or SPECTRA is a fully internal electronic warfare system jointly developed by Thales Group and MBDA France for the Dassault Rafale. The full SPECTRA integrated electronic warfare suite provides long-range detection, identification and accurate localisation of infrared homing, radio frequency and laser threats. The system incorporates radar warning, laser warning and missile approach warning for threat detection plus a phased array radar jammer and a decoy dispenser for threat countering. It also includes a dedicated management unit for data fusion and reaction decision.” The SPECTRA system also consists of two infrared missile warning sensors. Whew!! Impressive, right?
So, what happened??? Well, SPECTRA did NOT work. And the Indian taxpayer paid Rs 64,000 crores for this junk???.
Munir, in the event, got his Field Marshal’s pips in the main because, after the shooting down of the Rafale, Pakistan impressed every one, and with China and the Chinese media leading the cheering section — JC-10s in the PLAAF, for instance, sported six Rafale decals as kills on the sides of their cockpits (!), and won the military narrative and the regional and international media’s attention. Still, it was for a glaring defeat that Munir becomes Field Marshal?
This is a big IF, but shouldn’t the Indian military have asked Modi to ward off Trump’s pressure for “peace”, and immediately pivoted to a ground offensive to take Haji Pir, and exploited the air superiority achieved by Indian missile strikes by early light, May 10? With Haji Pir in the bag, there would have been no Pakistani pretence of victory, and Munir would have gotten the boot. It would, moreover, have forcefully and permanently rearranged the Pakistan army and government’s thinking about Kashmir, as I had argued when advocating the capture of Haji Pir in my April 30 post. We had large enough forces, including armoured elements, in Uri, Mandi and Poonch to affect such a move.
Did any service chief, any senior military man, alert the Prime Minister the morning of the strikes that such an opportunity had suddenly opened up, and that annexing Haji Pir in POK was at once possible and legally permissible? And, that India need never go back to restoring the status quo ante? I believe not.
This opportunity, alas, may never come again because China will be sure to help plug all the “gaps” revealed by Sindoor in Pakistan’s military capabilities and armed posture
The trouble is the Indian military has never been very nimble and, like the Indian state, can’t seem to walk and chew gum at the same time.
Security Wise 
Sir any updates, when we can read your new book?
Gosh, Mr Yadav, well-wishers like you are shaming me to finish my long gestating book! It should be out, hopefuly, by the year end.
Thank you, sir. Also, if possible, please release updated versions of your previous books.
@BharatKarnad
lol
please take your time the book shouldn’t be rushed into finishing
after reading why india is not a great power yet and nuclear weapons and indian security I have high hopes from you
@Raj Yadav @BharatKarnad
yeah same was my request too if possible and after you are done with the upcoming title please release updated versions or rerelease Future imperilled, the 2002 book and Strategic sellout
@BharatKarnad
“his boastful declaration in Islamabad was picked up by Indian intelligence”
any credible sources for this intelligence part. Aru in contact with intelligence people?
Also Pakistanis had fired a SRBM towards Delhi on 10 May which was intercepted over Sirsa, Haryana wasn’t that a great provocation too to counterstrike PAF bases.
Seriously, Bharat!
Akashteer and Brahmos saved India from a shellacking from the rotten carcass of a dead dog like Pakistan. Rather convinced that our over the top strikes on the majority of PAF air bases, C3 nodes, and even the Kirana Hills nuclear facility were a means of completely overwriting the failure on the night of the 7th and not just to preempt the Paki retaliatory strikes. PAF was grounded for some 24-48 hours as a consequence of rather underwhelming Indian missile strikes involving a package of only a few dozen vectors with the Chinese AD failing to intercept a single one of them. The performance of Indian missiles, actionable intel, and Air defense was beyond praise and the air chiefs are likely never to be pulled over for what happened in that aerial engagement which Pak officials described as “the largest air battle in modern history”. The loss of 2 of 6 PAF SAAB Erieye(1 at Bholari and 1 in the air by S-400) ought to deter any GHQ misadventure for the time being and also reassure the PLA chieftains as to India’s combat capability.
I, however, strongly disagree your contention that the Indian military was well poised to overrun the Haji Pir pass or Skardu and that the Indian political leadership “stole defeat from the jaws of victory yet again”. The possibility of Chinese intervention and the prospect of dealing with the PLAAF & RF ought to have deterred any Indian ground incursion into PoK. The least we can say from this whole skirmish is that we have learned a thing or two from the LAC standoff and that Pak is indeed only a minor nuisance and no major military threat to India.
Are you kidding me! By the way nobody expected China to so intervene, but Indian forces were ready. PLAAF coming to Pak’s rescue? Please see the record — Beijing huffs and it puffs but never ever fights anybody else’s fight (North Korea in 1951 aside)
Rather unlikely the Chinese will let India just gobble up GB just like that. Xi doesn’t look like the man with the temperament who will let something like that pass especially when he still retains a clear military edge in conjunction with his pliable proxy Pakistan. Even if we discount a Chinese intervention, does the GOI really have the confidence in the Indian military to grab PoK for them, I think not!
Not grab POK, grab Haji Pir — more doable
Email from kamal jassal
Sat, 24 May at 7:32 pm
While most of the weapon engagements and platform losses appear correct, last piece is a bit wish list and may never be true.
Reasons: India doe not produce Brig RS Dayal [then Maj RS Dayal, MVC] or 4 Punjab heroics or 19 Infantry Div deeds to capture Haji Pir heights and Pass every time in the face of enemy.
More so returning of Haji Pir to Pak after Tashkent agreement made it a defacto recognized IBL.
Thanks to defiance of Brig Pritam Singh MVC that Poonch is with us.
“The full SPECTRA integrated electronic warfare suite provides long-range detection, identification and accurate localisation of infrared homing, radio frequency and laser threats. The system incorporates radar warning, laser warning and missile approach warning for threat detection plus a phased array radar jammer and a decoy dispenser for threat countering….” –
I have some reservation from military technology aspect to conclude what went wrong technologically – the SPETRA failed or pilot error or pilot knowledge on electronic instrumentation installed in the aircraft.
First, if you deploy EW receivers (part of electronic warfare suite designated RWR) you will surely detect a target (subject to some decision making on “detection threshold”) and a number of parameters for the target, in particular its range R and AOA angle of arrival, i.e. direction.
But here lies the real problem: the numerical values of the parameters are very approximate from outputs of RWRs (radar warning receivers). It will be folly to fire an air-to-air missile at the target since the probability of miss hit will be very high due to unreliable data (Range and Angle of the target).
This hurdle is overcome by the RR (radar receivers – component of the radar unit installed in the fighter). This radar set works on its own signal which is “narrow” band operation in contrast to the EW which is “wide” band. The range and angle parameters of the target obtained by its operation is far more precise and hence used for target tracking, missile guidance, fire control etc., whereas the limitations are the range parameter is severely shortened with respect to that from RWR, the radar unit could be jammed etc.
Thus if SPECTRE instrumentation is functioning correctly, the pilot detects the presence of an enemy in its environment with some knowledge of its direction. But the enemy could not aim and fire a missile at him since it will be also beyond his technical parameters capability to program his instruments. This is the essence of Electronic Warfare.
Before the enemy fires a missile (BVR or not), he must have switched on his radar set and lock on his target to aim. As that enemy’s radar beam locks on to the defending pilot’s airframe, he gets instantaneous warning by his headphone’s maddening ringing bell to take action – dispense chaff to hoodwink the incoming missile and immediately drop 10,000 feet to save himself.
To my information, if this action is followed by the defending pilot correctly by the book, the incoming missile will miss him as its target even if it is hypersonic capable. The reason is in the terminal phase of the attack, the seeker-head of the missile takes over tracking the moving target at a close distance which cannot be done instantaneously. And if the target is below him in height, ground clutter from earth makes extremely time consuming the tracking operation.
Something must have gone wrong, maybe the particular SPECTRE instrument packed up or the pilot training is deficient. The SPECTRE electronic warfare instrument is not meant to warn the pilot from a long range to take evasive action. I repeat, Electronic Warfare is designed for surveillance of battle fields and hence the pilot was ignorant of his environment if SPECTRE failed- only that much finger pointing could be made for SPECTRE. It is the inbuilt radar set which takes the crucial role in air battle and the pilot needs some scientific training to operate such instrument. To my information 5-10% of western pilots in modern times are graduates in electronic engineering!
Jassal@ — Major Ranjit Singh Dayal led 1 Para in the capture of the Haji Pir salient in the 1965 War with Pakistan. He retired as a Lieutenant General. And just because India returned Haji Pir at Tashkant — it was in return for Chhamb captured by the Pakistan army, and was never an International Boundary Line, and pending a final solution, it will always remain a cease fire line (CFL). The reason why Pakistan, which captured Chhamb again in the 1971 War, never returned it. Because international law permits either party to a territorial dispute to change the CFL to its advantage using military means.
Professor Karnad,
I think till the time we have an incontrovertible, hard core evidence that Rafale has been shoot down let’s not believe in rumours Like we have given satellite images and hardcore evidence that we have destroyed pak airbases.
I would like to read your opinion on should India consider joining GCAP (Global combat air programme by uk, Japan, Italy) to develop a 6.5 gen aircraft and MGCS program (Main ground combat system) by France and Germany to develop a highly advanced, state of the art next gen tank. As India alone won’t be able to fund expensive program on its own. Should we go in for it. Looking forward for your response. Thanks.
Scarce funds, manned aircraft obsolescing fast, but fly Tejas Mk II and AMCA soonest — own designs, for aerospace tech development.
AMCA’s production will begin in 2035 and tejas mk-2 from 2032 , so it’s still a long ago. Even if pvt sector gets involved how”ll they produce if all tech is right now not available for both the aircraft and by the way AMCA has 49.5 % pvt sector stake in it only. So should’nt we to fill the current gap yes we should absolutely manafacture a truck load of tejas aircraft, but tejas as we know is a short range plane in comparison to Rafale or Su-30 mki. So should we buy more Rafales for the mean while and upgrade su-30, but there is also a problem with sukhoi that russians dont know how to tropicalize engines in a cold zone like Russia it will perform to its advertised standards, but in a hot zone like India its not upto the mark. So what should we do to fill the gap, of course tejas mk-1A should be made but it’s primarily an interceptor with not so great payload amount and radar and ew etc. So should we buy more Rafales or upgrade su-30. As when we buy Rafale type aircraft in bulk and make them here under make in India automatically the price will get reduced by 25-30% and Rafale is not a bad aircraft, remember in recent operation sindoor in the first wave it was Rafale with its scalp and hammer missiles which bombed the hell out of pakistanis and still I repeat again there is no hardcore concrete evidence that it has been downed. What’s you take on this?. Thanks.
Lack the patience to keep repeating the same arguments — please refer my books and writings. Su-30s are a better buy than Rafales. As a platform for long range A2A and A2G weapons, Tejas would do just as well
” … Indian fighter aircraft firing Scalp air-to-ground (A2G) missiles and the Brahmos ….”.
Dear Sir,
If Rafaels were grounded after 7th according to you, how could they be used to fire Scalp missiles later?
So, they were used later after all?
Dr Karnad, I have a philosophical question for you. Why Indian realist philosophers such as you tend to be so hardline nationalists ? I thought realism should be rational and beyond strong emotions such as nationalism since emotional biases may influence your cold calculated rational analysis. What are your thoughts?
I am not a philosopher. I merely analyse foreign and military policies through a strictly realist lens. But because such policies centre on the nation state as it has evolved from the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia, realism cannot be separated from nationalism or from rationality. And rational analysis is what I believe I do. My analysis does, however, tilt ideologically towards an Edmund Burke-an state that minimizes the government’s role in national life, and which line of thinking is best exemplified in the writings of Friedrich von Hayek.
Dear Mr Karnad,
Your description of the PL 15’s kill of Rafale has some serious mathematical errors.
You say the PL 15 AAM travels the last 50 km in 9 seconds. That makes its speed 333km/ min or 20000 km/hr!
The last I knew, PL 15 has a top speed of 5 Mach or 1715 metres/sec or 103 km/min or 6318 km/hr.
Secondly, Haji Pir pass terrain is mountainous and it is not Armour territory at all.
Do look into these minutae and correct them in your blog
oomesh@ — you are right, of course, on the PL-15 speed. My bad. Text corrected. Thanks. Mentioned the armoured elements for the Haji Pir capture in case Pak army diverted armoured units to the area.
Mr Karnad,
Your math is rather poor. You say the PL 15 AAM travels the last 50 km in 9 seconds. That makes its speed 333km/ min or 20000 km/hr!
The last I knew, PL 15 has a top speed of 5 Mach or 1715 metres/sec or 103 km/min or 6318 km/hr.
Also, Haji Pir pass in Pir Panjal ranges is a well-defended mountain pass. It is not a territory that would allow armour operations.
Tanks can be deployed in small sections or squads.
Sir, thanks for these articles much needed in the jingoistic media and echo chambers we are living in.I have two questions –
With the additon of J35 and HQ19 in pak systems what should be our plan for next 2 years to keep a conventional deterence
Would it be a good idea to settle border disbutes with pak during taiwan invation on 2027. the perfect time when china is distracted with a key operation which they can never fail? some in west say India is russia of world war 2.
J35+HQ19 cannot overcome Indian conventional superiority. If you mean that India should use a Taiwan invasion by China-situation as cover for “sorting out” Pak, sure, but GOI is too diffident to order it.
Re: India as Russia of WW2 — we shouldn’t delude ourselves — the Indian people and the system simply lack the resilience, grit and stamina to do to China what the Red Army did to Nazi Germany.
The lack of 5th generation stealth fighters, and dedicated airborne EW escort jammer like the USAF/ US NAVY F-18 Growlers/ PLAAF J-16 derivative proved costly.
Narratives from both sides.
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad
1)china is all set too even further nuclear weaponize pakistan . According to a latest us military report they are helping pakistan in upgrading their nuclear weapons at a very low cost against india.
the chinese never cared about morality or non proliferation be it Pak or Nk
2)Is there any possibility that the chinese have already or will in future provide thermonuclear weapons design to Pakistan
What should be our response ?
Of course, in time they will. And why my pleadings carried in my books and writings and posts on this blog of the last nearly 30 years for retaliating, even if belatedly, to China’s nuclear missile arming Pakistan by like strategically arming countries on the Chinese periphery, because they have fallen on deaf ears in GOI, has led to Beijing believing that such proliferation is cost-free to them.
@BharatKarnad
but professor karnad
do you think vietnam or phillipines will get itself involved in this unrelated conflict
why are we looking at it from an Indian perspective I mean we should ask them whether they need nukes or not
Why will vietnam ally with india what if they refuse this proposal for nukes
China has been trying to co-opt vietnam with economic incentives
your thoughts?
It is not allying with anybody. It is for these states to have ready-to-use “absolute weapon” as deterrent against a rampaging China. Please read up the case I have made in my 2008 book — India’s Nuclear Policy. And it is something I proposed to the govt as member of the 1st NSAB in 1998!
Email From Vice Admiral KN Sushil (Retd), former FOCINC, Southern Naval Command
Sushil Nair
Mon, 26 May at 9:00 am
The Rafale packaging for the ground strike as described is very unlikely. There is no need for Radar target detection for an A2G attack. The only reason could be a CAP.
What happened to Netra?
Regards
Sushil Nair@
Sir,
Could you please explain you when you say:
“… no need for Radar target detection for an A2G attack …”.
how does the missile (rf guided) eliminate the ground clutter to determine then the coordinates of a ground target to zoom on even if it is not manoeuvring?
I do not know your acronym CAP.
Regards.
Sankar@ — CAP — combat air patrol
Dr Karnad,
I believe we need to now ask realistic questions regarding the current Indo-Pak border skirmish.
Since I follow your writings regularly, I remember that in 2023 itself you had mentioned about the “Bajwa doctrine” through which a ceasefire on the LoC was agreed between India and Pakistan in 2019. Even during the Indo-China skirmishes in Ladakh in 2020, the same ceasefire was kept by both sides. Even the current Pakistani army chief Gen. Munir who came to power in November 2022 , kept the ceasefire for more than couple of years.
I believe the rise of terrorist attacks in KP and Baluchistan by the TTP and BLA respectively, have been perceived by Pakistan as enhanced covert Indian support behind these groups who are banned internationally as terrorist groups. The Jafar Express terrorist attack by BLA in March, 2025, was probably the one that forced Pakistan to disrupt the current situation between India and Pakistan. The widespread sympathy and support that the Indian strategic community has provided to the terrorist group BLA over some of our YouTube channels, probably convinced the Pakistanis about this.
As a realist practioner of military strategy , do you think it was right for India to enhance the support to BLA and TTP after 2019 ceasefire ? What was our assumptions here ?
I honestly don’t know India’s level of support — and of what kind to BLA, et al, so can’t say.
Is it not more likely that the surge in attacks in KP and Baluchistan are a product of the tension between the Taliban regime and Pakistan. Despite the rhetoric of social media warriors, India’s capacity to make a difference on the ground is limited without any direct access to the two provinces. It is the nature of the regime in Kabul which is a more relevant causal determinant.
Dr Karnad, I personally believe our ongoing diplomatic efforts to label Pakistan as a sponsor of terrorists is not going to produce desired results for following reasons. 1. The Western countries have moved on from the “global war on terror” from my childhood. They have different priorities such as the ongoing trade war, Ukraine, Gaza etc. 2. India after the Nijjar/Khalistan fiasco with Canada and US, is also perceived as a sponsor of terrorists. Indian support for the BLA is also another factor. What we perceive as Pakistani support for terrorists in Kashmir is perceived by the rest of the World as mutual support by both India and Pakistan as supporting cross border proxy wars using terrorists against each other as proxies. Even someone like Christine Fair now says that. 3. India doesn’t have any economic leverage as such over the major economic powers. Exports to India are a small fraction of overall exports for major large economies such as the US (less than 2 percent) and China (less than 3.5 percent). For Turkiye, total tourists from India consist of less than 1 percent of total foreign tourists. The much vaunted Indian middle classes are showing every sign of economic stagnation and India is firmly going for the middle income trap. I believe these are the reasons our ongoing diplomatic efforts to label Pakistan as supporting cross border terrorism will go nowhere. I would love your opinion my analysis.
Reason why I said, in the previous post, that the 7 parliamentary teams would achieve nothing.
“Field Marshal?“
This title may have lost its shine by now since Pak citizenry has already replaced it by “Failed Marshal” in their social media!
I am still not convinced that IAF lost one Rafale shot down by Pak if there was a loss at all since no substantiation of that claim on concrete evidence of data has been forthcoming. There has been no radar track released in the public domain in the context. China must have been watching 24 hours the area by her satellites to record the unfolding of the event and would have passed on the picture to Pak. This gives credence to IAF’s claim.
Dear Sir,
If there is any truth in hit of entry and exit of tunnels of Kirana hills,can we assume Pakistan is nuclear disarmed?
Can Pakistan ever be able to get back nuke warheads stored inside these tunnels or those nuke warheads permanently destroyed?
What is your assessment of this nuclear disarmament of pak if we assume we have actually hit kirana hills?
Deepak@ — it depends on how you read the strikes — satellite imagery-wise — on the nuclear storage sites in Kirana Hills.
I am relying on the Austrian expert, Tom Cooper, who says the entrances were hit. The Qs then are: how deep is the excavated tunnel? Would the blast effect travel kinetically to the end of the tunnel where the warheads may be stored? Hard to speculate. But the facts that our missiles precisely targeted the sites must be troubling to the SPD.
yes agree hard to speculate what would have happened inside tunnels. What was the real intention if we have fired 2 brahmos at only entry and exit?
1)temporarily block pak from firing nukes.
2)partially or completely destroy nuclear warheads.
3)just to warn pak not to do misadventure with nukes.
If we really successfully hit entry and exit but not sure if it has completely destroyed pak nukes why we have not fired few more to make complete destruction of pak nukes.Did govt feared radioactive leakage reaching our borders?
why still this pritviraj syndrome of giving enemy second chance when you had golden opportunity to cause severe damage like complete destruction of nukes.
JJamwal has done better OSINT analysis on the Kirana hills site. Entrances were not hit, only a hit on the hill has been confirmed. The only wild speculation one can make now is that perhaps Pak was trying to mate the weapon with missile and so a warning shot was sent. I think the nuke stockpile hit story including the boron filled planes from Egypt is all hoax. When Chernobyl disaster happened all of Europe had to start stockpiling iodine pills. Such things cannot be hidden. Murid base weapons storage has been hit but that also has to be conventional. Please correct me but common sense tells me that any counter force action has to be whole hog. You have to get them all in one go and not hit only 50% or even 90%.
primearg@ — A warning shot and going ‘full hog’ on counterforce are not mutually exclusive on the N-escalation ladder.
Professor Chellaney has given an eye-opening account of the military clash where there is far more in-depth strategic analysis of the fall out to be expected:
https://chellaney.net/author/chellaney/
“… Predictably, the information war ran parallel to the actual conflict. Pakistan claimed to have shot down at least five Indian fighter jets on the first day. However, no wreckage has been presented and satellite imagery has not corroborated the claim. The Indian military dismissed the allegation, stating that all its pilots returned safely….”
This confirms the view of some of us that no Rafale was hit by PL-15E missile and that was only a propaganda for moral boosting narrative which is normal during war. The only technical point I differ with him when he brings in the terminology “Electronic War” in the context.
sankar@ — how do u explain the wreckage in bhatinda ?
@rohit:
Your question has an intrinsic assumption that that wreckage is of a Rafale shot down by a PAK missile and the onus on me is to disprove it. Could you tell me how you have arrived at this conclusion of Rafale’s body debris? I will check for the authenticity of the source before I accept.
I do not accept any newspaper report or somebody’s opinion as such which is always unsubstantiated technologically. Anybody in this world can claim what he wants which has no value and it is impossible to counter that. I am yet to find a technologically expert source to confirm that a Rafale was shot down.
If there is any conclusive technical evidence to support that conclusion such as a radar track brought to light by PAK who has easy access to Chinese satellite imagery of the war zone, I would like to check and if I find it acceptable, I could change my view.
I have in fact come across all such hearsay news including that from bhatinda and found them dubious to accept without questioning. I have noted already in one of previous column a link: https://observers.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20250512-india-pakistan-conflict-rafale-fighter-jets-shot-down-images-debunked
pl15 which landed on our land was that the one which took our rafale down.
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad the indian thermonuclear detterent or the s1 device that was supposed to yield 275kt didn’t work it fizzled and it’s a fact I and will not argue with you over it.
1)But instead of physically testing again let’s have a more straightforward radical solution can’t we ask for the designs of the thermonuclear weapons from our friendly countries like Russia, France or let’s say Israel
Russians have an entire armoury from 0.5kt to Megatons why not negotiate with them covertly for a tested proven design between 200kt-400kt which would be sufficient
obviously negotiations and diplomacy plays a big role here and i doubt jaishankar would be able to do it
2)also correct me if I am wrong haven’t the French given us access to the ICF megajoule in exchange for the rafale deal and if not till now we should ask for the access in return for the 26 marine rafales
your thoughts?
The French promise a lot of things prior to signing deals! We have a mini-megajoule in Indore that R Chidambaram allowed to go to rack and ruin. We should refurbish and increase the lasers in it — far better option.
And, no, no one will transfer the staged thermonuclear weapon design for love or money, least of all France. As far as I know, Israel has no tested fusion device, and is on the same level techwise as us
@BharatKarnad
Well so that leaves us with only one solution physically testing ourselves or wait for another country to test and then we follow
the device that south Africa and Israel tested was supposedly a 275kt weapon sir but I would look more into it
WTH did chidambaram create such a mess for this country
he is gone now and has left us at such a stage
lying about the yield of tbe weapons and then ruining such systems
did he have personal animosity against the country?
Loved the adapted quote from Lyndon Johnson in the last sentence, although he didn’t talk of “chewing gum” while walking! You mentioned the loss of one Rafale here; were any non-Rafale jets lost? It now seems to a layman that on the enemy side PAF had some success(es) while on the Indian side, our missiles were clear winners. All the same, was expecting to see some (mild) critique from you that the military, in a marked departure from the past, did not specify the balance sheet of gains and losses after the hostilities, presumably being ordered not to do so by civilian bosses.
Will look forward to your thoughts about a new axis that has evolved post-Sindoor: Pak, Turkey and Azerbaijan, and its implications for India.
You have about got it on the losses and wins. The PTA is more of a nuisance.
@VikramSinghji:
Quelle surprise – vous ete ici, Monsieur le Professeur!
Vous n’avez pas expliquez qu’est-que on entend par “full-spectrum electronic warfare”. Veuillez le donner maintenant, s’il vous plait. Je vous prie.
Sankar@ –I was so prescient and spot on with the use of that particular phrase. Listen for more elaboration to Praveen Sahwney who uses the equivalent term “multi-domain electronic warfare”. But I feel such ideas will be lost on someone who uses ChatGPT to write French.
BTW, Vikram Singh is a pseudonym to keep morons like you from ever identifying my more famous self.
I guess Lyndon Johnson mentioned the same about Gerald Ford right? That walking and chewing gum at the same time.
Professor Karnad@:
The Russian ambassador in Delhi is upbeat on the spectacular success of Brahmos which is a Soviet era missile technology, maybe India has advanced it with some modern technology titbits. Do you think Moscow will further share with Delhi their latest missile technology to extend its range etc.. in spite of Modi’s gaffe to Putin “this is not an era of war”?
Russia has offered co-poduction of S-500, Su-57s, etc
@BharatKarnad
Also the hypersonic brahmos sir with a nuke warhead
and it will be a formidable weapon
Yes
it ddidn’t burst then how the hell it destroyed rafale, if it had destroyed it it would be no more. !!
@BharatKarnad
Sir here we go tou haveprofessor karnad
@BharatKarnad
Sir here we go you have been proven correct again
Officially the CDS anil Chauhan has accepted that we lost jets in a bloomberg interview
they still have not given the numbers and are saying unspecified
he says “what is important is that, not the jets being down but why they were being down”
but 1 rafale , 1 mirage and probably a Su-30 too
here is one the link
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/operation-sindoor-top-defence-officer-confirms-india-lost-fighter-jets-in-pakistan-conflict-8552769
what should be done now shouldn’t the air chief and the men who were responsible for planning the OP be sacked
Your thoughts specially what should be done to the people who planned these ops on the night of 7th may
thank you
@BharatKarnad
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-05-31/india-confirms-it-lost-fighter-jets-in-pakistan-conflict-video
CDS chauhan officially accepts that jets were downed in a recent Bloomberg interview
Dr Karnad, The Russian Czars on foreign policy, Mr Lavrov , just yesterday called the term Indo-pacific , a Western invention to lure India into an anti-China and anti-Russia alliance. What was the motivation on Lavrov’s part, to do so ? https://m.thewire.in/article/diplomacy/indo-pacific-region-never-existed-made-up-to-drag-india-into-anti-china-schemes-russian-fm-lavrov
It is basically the old tussle between the Russian-led Eurasian landmass coalition and the US-led maritime alliance to get a pivotal India on their side.
Sir seems like your are being listened check this https://idrw.org/lt-tasl-challenge-hal-for-amca-production-as-private-sector-rises-amid-hals-constraints/
Dr Karnad, Our CDS General Chouhan has now officially accepted that Pakistan did not threaten any talk about nuclear weapons through out this stand off time. The question is why did we agree to stop the fighting suddenly when we were winning as you mentioned ? Any reason ? Pressure from the US ? If so why did we crumble under this pressure ? What was the threat exactly could have been ?
Small Wars Journal has a very much more positive account of Sindoor. In fact, regards it as exceptionally well executed, successful and creating a serious point of inflexion in the area.
@BharatKarnad
Professor Karnad just today the Ukrainians launched a massive onslaught of drones on major russian airbases targetting jets and nuclear bombers and according to neutral sources some 40 aircrafts have been knocked out.
Now as we all saw that indian air defenses performed beautifully in the recent skirmishes with pakistan well then why can’t the russian air defences give similar or better results?
i mean the fact is the target was a major airbase and had strategic aircrafts deployed still they couldn’t protect it.
and i am not talking about S400(It’s for BM missiles) my question is regarding the short range defense systems of russia which are designed for drones and other suitable ordnances and are failing again and again.
Who knows what the problem is? Perhaps, not properly networked
Dr Karnad, You are my idol. I also want to be a rich geopolitics and grand strategy expert like you. I also want to write many books and articles like you. Please guide me
Thankyou, Typh. Success, or what passes for it, in any field is a combination of strong grounding, circumstances, and a big dollop of luck! But it is a different recipe for each one of us. You’ll, no doubt, discover your own best mix.
@BharatKarnad
Greetings Professor Karnad
Sir i hope you are following the developments about INS varsha the Rambilli SSBN base for the Arihant-class submarines.
1)Can’t the enemy (specially Chinese satellites) detect and monitor that when are the subs moving in and then out of the base.
2)i was reading one of your old blog article on INS Arihant where you say that the actual displacement is some 8000tonnes and not 6000tones as advertized well can you please explain why is that how do you come on that conclusion because the tonnage of a submarine is very crucial.
also if the tonnage is more shouldn’t it have more VLS probably 6 or 8 rather then just 4
Thank you it’s always a pleasure reading your books and blogs
also sir i am surprised at your frequency of attending podcasts, interviews and seminars i mean you have done some 4 major lectures on various channels and platform in this month alone opposed to just 1 the previous year.
I wish you good health
Dr Karnad, How much Indian conventional superiority over Pakistan can be dented by China denial of rare earth magnets to India? As we talk, already the India inc. is complaining about a Chinese embargo on the same
@BharatKarnad
https://news-abplive-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/news.abplive.com/news/world/shimla-agreement-dead-document-pakistan-defence-minister-khawaja-asif-1777552/amp?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17491448823627&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.abplive.com%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fshimla-agreement-dead-document-pakistan-defence-minister-khawaja-asif-1777552
Sir i agree with your recommendation of taking back parts of pakistan as a cost imposed on them for spreading terrorism in india
Well you advocate for Skardu and Haji pir but why not chambh sector that we lost in both 1965 and 1971
it’s a much more strategic target to fight for would give us immense geostrategic advantages
why like to know why Haji pir only considering the fact that it will be a bloody mountain offensive war
There can be disagreement on what to take first, but there is no alternative to the policy I suggest.