[A grounded Tejas vs a flying Rafale!]
The usual, unsatisfactory, inconclusive end to Sindoor. And that too inside of three days of start of military operations! What is equally surprising is how quickly we accepted US mediation, unless the entire Op Sindoor was planned on the basis that after a few days of slinging things around in which the Indian military would be permitted to do as much damage to the Pakistan military as possible, the US would step in with the arm twister of IMF credit of $1.3 billion, to bring Islamabad in line.
In the Deccani Hindustani lingo of my childhood in Dharwad, the Op Sindoor was all padenga, padenga, phoos!
The public rhetoric of our leaders in the aftermath of the April 22 Pahalgam massacre promised something very big — recall Prime Minister Narendra Modi talking of “unimaginable” consequences for Pakistan. So were small time exchanges of drone and missile strikes for three days unimaginable?!! There were NO plans to take the Haji Pir Salient or Skardu in the Northern Areas, or to do anything remotely aggressive other than striking Muridke and Bahawalpur — which broke through the system of self-inhibition, the “psychological factor” that I referred to in the previous post, and showed some political will, established a precedent, and injected a bit of credibility into the Indian threat to treat any and every terrorist incident hereafter as casus belli, “cause for war”. This was fine, but not good enough.
In the main, Sindoor revealed the Indian Air Force’s flawed assessment of technology and trends. Its showboat Rafale combat aircraft came a cropper. Based on news stories in CNN (https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/09/china/china-military-tech-pakistan-india-conflict-intl-hnk), Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/) and The Telegraph of London (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/9caaf214c46509a7), featuring Pakistani claims and US sources supporting such claims (of as many as 5 IAF aircraft downed — 2 Rafales, 1 Su-30, 2 Mirage 2000s), a former military person, sent in his take on the IAF-PAF tussle in Sindoor which is worth quoting (it is almost in blank verse!):
“Saab Erieye AWACS patrolling silently
J-10C fighters flying in passive mode
PL-15E missiles—the export PL-15E, the domestic variant with over 300 km reach and Mach 5 speed—locked in and fired
The Rafale didn’t even know it was targeted until the missile was 50 km away. At that speed, the Indian pilot had 9 seconds. Not enough to react. Not enough to survive.”
The IAF presence over J&K was sparse in 2 of the 3 days. Why?
“Because every time a fighter lifts off, Pakistani radars pick it up.
Because the Erieye sees what Indian radars can’t.
Because the PL-15 launches from outside Rafale’s threat envelope.
Because the Rafale, once India’s silver bullet, has been turned into a $250 million sitting duck.The IAF now flies 300 km behind its own borders.”
It’d be only right to note that while a spendthrift IAF invested in prohibitively priced weapons platforms, like the Rafale, the PAF invested in the “kill chain” inclusive of a few J-10Cs, Saab AWACS and mostly long range A2A ordnance. (With respect to the Rafale refer https://www.epw.in/journal/2024/41/perspectives/strategic-autonomy-national-security.html.) Recall how the Rafale was ballyhooed by Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa, CAS at the time of the failed 2019 Balakot strike who, not too long ago rued the fact that he did not have the Rafale for that action.
A highly regarded retired Air Marshal reminded me not to take the stories of US support for PAF’s claims for the IAF Rafales downed except with the greatest skepticism. Absolutely true that the US defence companies are mighty keen to have the Trump Admin push the far more useless and expensive F-35 on Modi’s India and IAF. Even with that caution in mind, PAF’s choices in expenditure are still commendable.
Also because, the PAF has initiated a new method of air warfare with an adjoining country — combat aircraft staying well back in their own air space, firing longrange air-to-air (A2A) and air-to-ground (A2G) weapons with exceptional support. Except, Rafales cost $250 million each. The fleet of 36 is now depleted. This is of larger consequence than the damage done by Indian missiles to frontline Pakistani airstrips and air defence systems. Sindoor has definitively proved that Rafale is an overhyped combat aircraft.
If all the IAF meant to use the exorbitantly priced Rafale for was as a standoff weapons platform, then wouldn’t the Tejas, as I have always been advocating, been as good an aircraft to trigger longrange A2A and A2G missiles, at a fraction of the cost? Will the Indian Ministry of Defence and the Modi PMO even at this late date not rethink the Rafale deal that is in the works to meet IAF’s spurious medium fighter aircraft requirement for nearly 100 Rafales to cost additional thousands of billions of US dollars in hard currency? And will the IAF at least now do the nationalistic thing, save the country a treasure trove of hard currency, and save its flagging reputation, and finally throw off its yoke of imported aircraft and opt for the Tejas instead??? More will be be revealed about the Rafale in the Sindoor ops in the days to come. Time for the IAF, for its own good, to begin distancing itself from this aircraft. (There are very good reasons why no other other major air force opted for this aircraft as my innumerable posts on the Rafale in this blog, suggest.)
Within hours of the announcement of the ceasefire this evening, the Pakistan army frontline units on the LOC opened up with artillery in the Poonch and Rajouri sectors of J&K. This is the Pakistan army the Indian government expects to be actually deterred by the Indian military threat of striking the Punjab heartland, especially in the wake of India being militarily in good condition to capture Pakistani territory in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, but did not? And, this is the Pakistan army that is expected to foreswear terrorism as a tool of asymmetric warfare that has had the Indian army on edge in Kashmir for the last two decades? Well, Good Luck! (Even without the Koran-spouting General Asim Munir, who might become the first big Pakistani casualty.)
The Indian government and military seem to be so caught up in the cycle of petty military actions and outcomes, apparently forgetting Modi’s and defence minister Rajnath Singh’s exhortation to the nation to “Think Big, Act Big!”
Security Wise 
Sir, reports are coming of cease fire violation now . Why is Pakistan behaving like this ??
Drones sighted, explosions heard in J&K, Punjab & Gujarat hours after India-Pakistan ceasefire
And how would you react to this ?
Pahalgam satellite image orders peaked two months before attack
sarrrr, because they have got balls to mess and challenge
sir, china just released a statement that they’re with pakistan. What do you make of this statement? Can China start a military campaign against India?
I’d highly appreciate your response, sir.
thanks in advance.
So, what’s changed or different?
their open declaration of support?
hello sir. I feel my last comment didn’t go through.
China just said that they’re with Pakistan.
what do you make of their statement? Can there be a Chinese military campaign against India?
Well said Mr. Karnad. Trump will now claim Nobel Peace prize. His goal always has been get a Nobel Peace Prize coz Obama got one.
He has been coveting it. He tried with Ukraine and Russia. Failed there coz Putin doesn’t give shit about US.
Israel is out of control and is not going to withdraw. They are raised to perceive Muslims as cockroaches. Their hate is deep rooted.
So the only 2 countries who would agree to put on a show are India and Pakistan.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-snatched-defeat-from-jaws-of-victory-brahma-chellaney-on-ceasefire-with-pak-2722860-2025-05-10
Professor, it’s amazing that you rely on CNN, and other western media on the damage caused to Indian planes. Nothing short of despicable! So far, we have not seen any photographic evidence of military jets downed on either side. I would not jump to any conclusions.
Amit@– You have a tendency to miss the woods for the trees. My thrust was PAF’s correct reading of technology, choice of weapons and support sytems — all made possible by the right expenditure priorities. In any case, you also missed my caveat on a US motivated to downtalk the Rafale to push up the F-35.
no sir not f-35 i think IAF needs space crafts to fight. i think india just needs to buys brains, understand bullying does not work, and start working for peace. else other counties will teach us the lesson of peace the hardway
Professor, the thrust of your article was that the Rafale is not a good platform as some of them were shot, the proof coming from western media sources. You also overstate the cost of each Rafale – $250M is lifetime cost including weapon systems and maintenance. This is misleading. Plus according to Indian military analysts, no Indian planes were shot. The basis for your entire article is wrong. So while, I may mistake the woods for the trees at times, you have a tendency to jump the gun!
No. $250 million is the all-up cost of a Rafale armed with Meteor, Scalp, and Hammer. Life time cost will be many multiples of that.
yes we are waiting for evidence
Dr. K , Terror Attacks takes place in J&K ,after India changes its doctrine and make Terror Attack as cause of war, That means India is at War !? ,Munir forcing Modi to walk the talk. If its war , then should we do Sialkot Grab right now ? how about attacking Lahore turn it into an urban hellscape warfare of the type of Battle of Stalingrad and and simultaneously attack Skardu and Haji Pir, that would put Pak Army in similar conundrum that Gen Khalid Mahmud Arif did to Indian Army during Opp Brasstacks , is Lahore more valuable than Pok ?. If Pok is , then their prized City and its citizen burn , no doubt .
Its seems Munir is backed by the Chinese , who don’t want the American mediated Ceasefire to stay. Basically the Cold War / Great Game etc , plays out again in the Indian Subcontinent with India being a mute spectator and Foreign Players calling the Shots. Shame on us.
The ‘IT cell’ and the millions of its reproducers were gloating ‘UPA could not close the Rafale deal, we did it. Modi hei to mumkin hei“
I totally anticipate a faction of the IAF convince themselves that a squadron or two of F-35s can solve this kill chain problem. Especially now that the US has a new stick with the GE engines. Them anticipating Rafale M procurement is probably what prompted a mercurial Trump to throw out F-35s.
Lots of contradictions
Sir,
I am in agreement with your assessment of the weak outcome and believe Mr Modi’s position becomes weak as RSS wanted finishing off this Pakistani sponsored terrorism menace decisively,this time.
There cannot be any objections to promoting Tejas over Rafael or F-35 or for that matter any other option.
However, I find Rafael loss a propoganda.
Reasons being
1)
J-10C:Radar: Equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, likely the KLJ-7A, with an estimated detection range of 120–200 km (some Chinese sources claim up to 300 km with 1,400 gallium nitride modules).
Rafale:Radar: Thales RBE2-AA AESA radar, with a detection range of 200–240 km (836 gallium arsenide modules). Renowned for multi-target tracking and low-probability-of-intercept (LPI) capabilities.
2)
Meteor range and kill envelope far better than PL-15/PL-15E:
3)
Ii is apparent our integrated layered air defence proved far better than Pakistan.
In light of these observations ,It’s difficult to believe Rafael being shot down.
Woukd like to hear your views on this.
Thanks
Atul Bhusari
Detection is done by RWR (Radar Warning Receiver) not the radar receiver (RR) inbuilt in e.g. Thales RBE2-AA unless the French has succeeded to fuse these two devices which is unlikely. A lot of research is going on that direction at present in the US but not yet to my information is in vogue for active battlefield.
Once a target is detected to kill it, a missile could be launched. For that purpose, tracking the target software comes into play for which ESA (electronically scanned) radar system is deployed. AESA is one further step, but unless your environment has a lot of targets to de-interleave, its performance is not as good as ESA.
LPI radars are meant for different purpose (surveillance), nothing for tracking or missile launching.
Couple things – aerospace engineer here
if BVR is the focus, a drone with potent missile could the trick without Tejas too. It is then on the operator to “understand their strategy”
PAF was going for a kill while IAF probably thought hitting target and running away could reduce chance of escalation. It would be interesting to know if such a thing came from the govt. If it did, how IAF could even say yes to it. A layman like me thinks AWACS and any airborne jets should be first target as IAF was anyways escalating the situation
That being said, a serious question. CNN says Vance dialed Modi based on an intelligence input. Is it then the same nuclear bogey? If it is, GOI already folded the towel. To get around it, why cannot the govt state below?
/”act first to prevent annihilation, else uphold No First Use as a doctrine of restraint.”/
I follow your writings/lectures and fully understand your take on PA not using nuclear button.
but what can knock some courage to our political and military leadership?
hoping Munir escalates from his side and not hold the cessation of firing. You could always count on these folks shooting themselves though and that might atleast push GOI
Brother you have no idea of the incompetence that run in senior echelons of our bureaucracy and military .I used to have similar thoughts as the ones you carry , working as govt employee nowadays what I observe is difference in their words and actions talking about punitive strike and then boggling down to tit for tat . They lack a vision and foresight for the result of their actions .
What kind of conclusion is given to this operation, we really derailed our objectives
Brilliant, if sobering, analysis. Pls weigh in on the thesis advanced by certain analysts that the principal reason for our (alleged) downed jets is the lack of data integration among disparate air platforms and systems, as they are sourced from different countries. In contrast, the enemy’s jets are better unified and integrated, being sourced mostly from China. The other point that has been bemusing me no end is why the Rafale’s vaunted Scalp/Meteor missiles did not deliver the expected kill rate in comparison to PL-15? This truly seems to have become the DeepSeek moment for Chinese weapon systems.
As far as I know there are inter-aircraft type data fusion links, but cannot say anything about the quality of integration or its extent.
One hopes that post-Sindoor there will be due introspection and reassessment of the strategic and tactical logic underlying all our acquisitions, particularly in the IAF. Unquestionably, the enemy is able to derive disproportionate bang for the buck in optimising its considerably limited resources. This while we seem to have become experts in saddling ourselves with ineffectual white elephants. One wonders how the state of morale is in the IAF at present. BTW, those who are hurling invectives at you need only to refer themselves to Misri’s non-answer when asked pointedly about loss of Rafale(s).
@BharatKarnad
one more thing to add is that we called out their nuclear bluff
i mean we literally hit Nur khan base chaklala which is 10km away from GHQ,pindi this as I see it was the biggest message and warning to the pak army generals.
i am now convinced that they will never use tactical nuclear weapons against india in a future conflict
if you could add more professor would love to know
Dr Karnad, the last few days have been a total circus. Both the sides claimed victories. If the goal was to show the world that Pakistani Army is malevolent, then we have completely failed in that regard. There has been no public humiliation for them which would make any future Pakistani Gen changes its ways. Except for few skirmishes here and there, it is India which ultimately lost its jets as well as came out indecisive and a weakling which needed an adult(USA) to resolve its dispute. Beyond the rhetoric that Jaishankar and Modi routinely indulge in, it seems we are where we started. Honestly, very disappointing for me as an Indian to see this opportunity getting wasted 😦
Sir, we think that this war was between india and pak, in reality it was India Vs China who were fighting on Pakistan territory, china was firing its rounds on india using Pak as its cover. Ask yourself a question, if we are in a position to go on war with China and Pak at a time right from north eastern borders to north western borders? China wants india to waste its ammunitions on pak, and by sending chinese drones, they got a map of our air defense system. Now chinese know where to attack and where not to. Cease fire was a blessing in disguise for india to sit back and formulate a stronger strategy to deal with China and its military superiority first.
Dr Karnad, Please check this article: https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/politics/vance-modi-india-pakistan-intelligence. It talks about sensitive intelligence that USA received. Could it be that Pakistan was about to use Nuclear weapon?
sowl@ — Highly unlikely
It is not transparent to me all these opinions on Rafale floating around which I find devoid of science and technology of Aerospace.
First, there is no hard evidence that one Rafale was shot down by Pak. Where are the debris then even if all that happened within India’s air space? There must be at least some satellite photos of that event available somewhere to confirm but missing in the public domain.
A propos ‘BVR’, to my search in the documentation on missile technology, I could not find any data of missile ranges where a sharp distinction is made on the range beyond which a missile in its capability could reach falls in the category of beyond the visual range (BVR) pertaining to the launching platform. A similar red herring is “stealth” which is the fiction for salesmanship. The research in the highly classified area of “passive radar” has progressed far to detect any object in the open air by the receiver system.
The range and performance of a missile (e.g. maneuverability) is built in the technology of the missile and not in the fighter that launches the missile. All missiles are ejected (dropped) vertically from the fighter in its flight and not “fired” in the common sense of rifle firing. Otherwise, the fighter will undergo a big recoil force. Of course, as a projectile it gets some lateral velocity initially in its flight, but soon the rocket motor will ignite and take control of the flight. Its initial radar guidance (flight path) is the by the fighter but eventually is taken over by satellite (military) communication. There is no discrimination here concerning the range to reach so far as the platform it is launched from. That is inbuilt in the technology of the missile.
On an aside, if Delhi halts its operation abruptly now under external pressure, it would remind the history of Mohammed Ghori which brought down the original Indian civilisation.
From Lt Gen AK Singh (Retd), former Governor, Andaman & Nicobar, and GOCINC, Southern Command
AK Singh
Sun, 11 May at 9:14 am
Hi Bharat,
seems a little premature conclusion in favour of Tejas
ak
The problem General is that the Indian military always considers any indigeonous technology/system not “mature” enough. But you know that!
@bharatkarnad,
Rafale loss is possible. The Bathinda air asset crash on D1 has not been explained yet. Analysts say some losses are expected. They also insist that we had better AD and relative superiority in attacking PAK airbases(their AD has weak). Given all that and given that we could hardly expect PM ji to have authorized a big territorial grab especially in Skardu because of China factor. At a minimum we should have achieved a bigger damage to PAK air assets in PAK air bases. If we can attack their runways with standoff weapons why not attempt to reduce their fleet. It’s not as if Pakistan was playing the escalation ladder game like we were. Given an opportunity Pak would have taken out all our planes on ground if it could.
Haji Pir, I have been shouting from the rooftops, is eminently doable. We missed that opportunity
Dear Professor as a lesson from the skirmish should we not jump start a local drone wingman program with stealth UAS for air superiority and High altitude gliders as bombers and not run behind train that has departed years ago .
Amca a dream in 2011 and still a dream in 2025
There’s a drone wingman project underway. As a precaution, India should never have any defence project with a big power
Dear Sir,
You may have mentioned this before but I fail to recall it clearly.
Presumably, the late Dr Manohar Parikkar (our ex defense minister) wasn’t very eager to go for Rafale back at the time when the deal was being discussed for 36 aircrafts.
Is that correct or wrong? If yes, how did the deal manage to go through actually? Pressure from our civil/bureaucracy & or IAF ?
(No offence meant for the great ex defense minister here)
Parrikar opposed the Rafale buy, preferring the Su-30 instead. He was reverted as CM, Goa
Su30 is Russian junk imo, it can’t stand against F16 let alone J10. PESA Radar, Bigger RCS plus shitty A2A missiles
@BharatKarnad
Professor this article from New York times
“What drove Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio into action was evidence that the Pakistani and Indian Air Forces had begun to engage in serious dogfights, and that Pakistan had sent 300 to 400 drones into Indian territory to probe its air defenses. But the most significant causes for concern came late Friday, when explosions hit the Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, the garrison city adjacent to Islamabad.
The base is a key installation, one of the central transport hubs for Pakistan’s military and the home to the air refueling capability that would keep Pakistani fighters aloft. But it is also just a short distance from the headquarters of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, which oversees and protects the country’s nuclear arsenal, now believed to include about 170 or more warheads. The warheads themselves are presumed to be spread around the country.
One former American official long familiar with Pakistan’s nuclear program noted on Saturday that Pakistan’s deepest fear is of its nuclear command authority being decapitated. The missile strike on Nur Khan could have been interpreted, the former official said, as a warning that India could do just that”
It was attack on Nur khan base that really affected the pakistanis
Do you believe this story specially the last paragraph
Would love to know our opinion?
This could be an explanation
@BharatKarnad
but professor my question is can we actually decapitate them completely or its just a kind of warning
you quote a Pakistani lt gen Ausaf ali in your books and blog
and he says that 70 percent of their assets are marked the remaining 30 percent we will never be able to find
also there has been a earthquake detected near sargodha base(which contains nuclear weapons in the kirana hills) with a richter scale of 4-4.5 indicating. And we attacked this base too
The earthquake was in Tajikistan, for god’s sake.
Sir, your view on claims floating around with video footage of a bunker buster strike at Kirni Hills supposedly housing Pakistani Nuclear Stockpiles by Indian Fighter Aircraft after disabling Sargodha runway, this seems to have been in reponse to the Fatah SRBM headed to Delhi intercepted over Sirsa, Possible Indian response options spooked the US(claims of “alarming intelligence” with Vance calling Modi), while negotations were on India seems to have hit Kirni Hills as a parting message, DGMO calls in the afternoon. You should come back on twitter. Kirni Hills claim made with footage and analysis by a certain Jaidev Jamwal. We hopefully atleast now hasten plans for a counterforce campaign with the US and/or Israel.
Sir some are saying that the earthquake in pakistan were actually nuclear tests, is this why vishwaguru bend down to trump and pakistan?
purple@ — the 5 Richter earthquake was in southern Tajikistan. Nothing nuclear about it
Sir , i think you have this much sense that chinese air defence system wasn’t even able to shoot down , loitering munitions .Do you think their jets can shoot down rafale? First of all understand Tejas is an interceptor aircraft , it was made to replace mig-21 these aircrafts no doubt a very reliable piece of machinery .They cannot do offensive operations . Downing of Rafale is a Pakistani propoganda which the western media is promoting , look it up yourselves they have approved a 2.4 billion dollars bail package for them through imf . Shame on people like you. I’m sorry I held you in great respect for you before this as the architect of India’s nuclear policy. But I’d recommend the govt to ban your blog. I’m not a modibhakt i have also criticised modi several times like when he went for indo-french ceo summit in 2023 he took a woke entrepreneur like aman gupta , rather than isro chief.
The Tejas, like the Rafale, can carry any weapon, including longrange A2A missile that the PAF J-10Cs did.
It doesn’t matter if it is an interceptor or a strike aircraft, especially as you are firing from the safety of your own airspace.
@Mr Douglas , @BharatKarnad
Chill dude no body is perfect professor analysis might be wrong i am too hoping
but the fact is the government of india has not given any clarity on shooting down of rafales this raises more doubts.
and professor’s other views like the nuclear bluff and exchange ratio quite holds true
Email from Lt Gen Blli Pawar (Retd)
balli pawar
Sun, 11 May at 12:01 pm
Dear Bharat
Do not agree with your assessment
OP SINDOOR aim was to hit the Pak Mil- Terror sites. This was successfully done specially hitting Muridke and Bhawalpur the epicenters of LET and JEM. I think it was an excellent msg to Pak by hitting 5 centres in Punjab. I am sure no one, even you would have imagined such a response. Irrespective of views on ceasefire the loud and clear msg has been sent.
Rgds
Secondly I ensorse AK’s comments on Rafale vs Tejas—Too early
Email from Vice Admiral Harinder Singh (Retd), former FOCINC, Southern Naval Command
harindersingh
Sun, 11 May at 12:10 pm
Friends, you may like to peruse this link also . You may have to copy it and paste in your browser please
https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1921052839205306702/video/1
I am sure that there is some bit of a hype in this link but I would fear that some of it may be true. It’s certainly very slick
Thanks
I am doubtful of the cockpit radio communication presented is true. Aren’t all radio communications tightly encrypted ?
leader choose to AUX (secondary unencrypted comm) due to panic caused by loosing a formation member , pretty easy to verify , just ask in from anybody at 101 sqn
Response by Lt Gen Balli Pawar to Vice Admiral Harinder Singh’s message:
balli pawar
Sun, 11 May at 12:27 pm
Harinder Sir so from 5 ac as told by their def minister it has gone upto 6 in this briefing. Where did the debris fall on own side specially the ones in Punjab and Rajasthan and Srinagar. The entire media sitting is foreign hence the intent is very clear. Pakis claim to have won every war they fought with us including 1971.
Yes there could be some losses but will be known soon.
Rgds
At least the Rafales were in the air and took part in the offensive, in 2019 it was the Mirage 2000s. Their loss could be more down to lack of intelligence regarding the capabilities of PL15E/J10C. Still IAF proved that it can strike any place in Pakistan at will, and all pilots are accounted for. Machines can be bought/stocks replenished.
My question is ? Where were the Su 30s the so called backbone of IAF. What is the availability rate ?
Has it been reduced to second line defense / stand off weapons launch now that it carries relatively short ranged R77/Derby/Astra when compared to the Meteor/P15E carried by the Rafale and J 10C. Looks like its a similar case with PAF F 16s as well AMRAAM C-5 is no longer cutting edge and hence they were not seen in the front line.
If Pakistan radars knew that Rafales had taken off the moment they did take off, they should have known that a strike was coming but yet they could do nothing to prevent the targets from being hit, pretty deep inside Pakistan. So even after getting much advance notice, and knowing that so much things are coming you way, one is unable to actually stop the attack and the damage – then of what use is the advance detection? At the end of the day a fighter can be lost in an attack – no problem – but the issue is what does it prove? If your opponent has better fighters but still cannot stop you from carrying out the damage, would you really worry about it a lot? So it is clear that something is not adding up, on both sides of the argument…
read this best quote today:
India is country that has consistently disappointed the optimists and the pessimists
When we’re humiliated by the CN in the coming years, the responsibility of it will lie with the people who did not discard democracy for the Chinese Model. We’ve completely abandoned any sense of urgency to strengthen our STEM R&D and manufacturing sectors, in favor of maintaining the inutile masses, all to win elections — a completely futile exercise.
Even the powerful island nations(US, UK) keep the kayfabe of democracy to humor the masses. In contrast, we, living in the most hostile neighbourhood, are propitiating the gods of democracy to seek the validation of people who hold us in contempt, and laugh at our devotion to this deeply flawed system.
There are only two kinds of systems:1) Goal oriented(Chinese system) and 2) Process oriented(Democracy).
No one will be held accountable for underfunding the def R&D, or in the case of AMCA, complete abandonment for two decades – CN sanctioned their stealth prog in 2000. People will just point to the various processes as to why they underfunded def R&D, as no one person is responsible for it. It’s just series of processes and incessant file pushing from one office to another.
Sir, don’t you think that Indian AWACS would also have been up in the air when Refaels were pressed into action?
Secondly, you rightly pointed out in previous post that PAF’s guards were down. So isn’t true that by the time PAF swung into action Indian jets would have done the job?
Criticism of Rafael may be justified, but Americans waste no time to discredit Russian, French and Chinese military platforms. So, we need to take the claim of downing of Rafaels with a pinch of salt.
With a ton of salt, actually. But until authoritative information is released by the Defence Ministry/PIB analysis has to be based on the available data.
wrong Professor. Not if available data is basically propaganda!
First to get your facts right. Pakistan uses PL15E ,the export version of PL15 that has a range of 140 kms, that too only in J10 platforms as J17 platforms sport a weak radar.
Secondly, Rafale uses Meteor missiles with a no escape zone of 60kms ,largest in the world.
Thirdly, Thales RBE2AA is a powerful GaAs radar which can detect missiles and aircrafts of PAF from 150 to 200kms afar. The crash, if proven is a lesson, perhaps to improve our flying capabilities but don’t doubt the machine.
Incidentally, Captain Bhagwat mentioned the 300 km range on PL-15E. Yes, IAF pilot quality needs improving. The issue is for the role Rafale performed as a weapon carrier, Tejas would do just as well if accoutred with the appropriate radar and missiles. Unless, one is sold on foreign maal, like the IAF is.
No one in India will oppose the Tejas program and the drive for self sufficiency in fighter jets. But where is the engine? Why discredit the Rafale without evidence!
Operation Sindoor has turned India into a joke. Even more tragic is that a government intoxicated on propaganda isn’t even paying their respect to the pilots who lost their lives defending the country.
All pilots returned to base, per the IAF. So, we didn’t lose pilots, and those whose jets crashed likely bailed out.
Dear Mr. Karnad,
I have a question which is off topic for this post, but I would be quite grateful if you could nonetheless shed any light on it. Much ink has been shed on the strong showing of our air defence, the continued qualitative edge retained by the PAF et al. Similarly, welcome as that might be, I have seen little informed commentary about the Indian Navy (I hope that a future post of yours might address this).
However, I wondered if you could shed any light on the land domain: specifically apropos the IBG’s? Is it that despite the lengthy process of test-bedding and the many iterative improvements, the armed forces are yet to operationalise and have them on hand, or were they on hand and their lack of employment reflected a conscious, political decision? In case of the former, do you have any observations as to the Indian performance this time around apropos making ready/mobilizing any of our Strike Corps (if that option was even seriously considered/executed that is)?
Warm regards,
Himanil
indin@ — the 8 IBGs were available, especially because we chose the time to initiate a response and the army, therefore, had the time to operationalise them. The political decision, as far as one can make out, didn’t want to go there.
@BharatKarnad
professor a small question is IBG Indian equivalent of the Chinese group armies?
Can they be compared
Well, let me answer you this way: a PLA group army = an Indian army Division
Chinese technology is simply too impressive. It’s reasonable to cede Tawang to China (they had it pre-1951) and get a final border settlement done.
Yea, well, Chinese miltech is ok. But Tawang — that’s never going to happen.
Email from Gautam Sen
Gautam Sen
Sun, 11 May at 5:17 pm
India has inflicted some costly short term damage on Pakistan. But with its US$ 600 billion reserves, steadily growing economy and technological prowess has been held to a diplomatic and political draw by a completely bankrupt Pakistan. In the end, Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail, aimed not just against India but the world, paid off. Although Modi and India have demonstrated a Pakistani nuclear threat against India doesn’t guarantee complete protection, Pakistan has managed to avoid total defeat and surrender by initiating exactly such a threat explicitly. Indeed it has emerged better than it did in 1971 once its NCA met to consider a nuclear option. The Americans correctly concluded 26 Indian lives, however brutally taken, could not justify even moderate escalation to potential use of just tactical nuclear weapons. India may have inadvertently aided this outcome by a missile attack proximate to Pakistani nuclear facilities. Such a threat to the nuclear weapons capability of a country creates the extremely dangerous situation of a “use it or lose it” scenario for it, ie. engage in a first strike or succumb to an adversaries’s preemptive decapitation of your nuclear strike capability.
India will still eventually be able to severely constrain Pakistani belligerence and terrorism but that will depend on how quickly it can build dams on the Indus River. Once they have been completed, India will be in a position to turn off Pakistan’s vital water supply to convey to it that an intolerable price will have to be paid for armed action against India. But this is in the future and the blockade of Pakistani ports will have to end with the end of hostilities. The prospect of an independent Baluchistan, which will truncate Pakistan and initiate an endgame for it, will continue to hang in the balance. The Americans are apparently unwilling to support Baluch independence, now at any rate.
GS
Email from Dr V Siddhartha, former Science adviser to Defence Minister
V Siddhartha
Sun, 11 May at 4:03 pm
….Did not expect you to be so naive, Bharat!
Tejas will not enable IAF retiree’s and their children (and grandchildren?) being provided French govt. scholarships at French Univs. Other liberal sinecures as ‘consultants’ to French companies in India, with all-paid invitations to Air Shows in France…. etc. Cost-less-to-France to declare « Le monde a besoin que l’Inde devienne membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité »
VS
The circumlocution and non-answer that Air Marshall A K Bharti offered today in the press conference to the question if Rafales were lost is proof positive of your thesis here and the use of the colourful adjective in the hyperlink.
Professor,
I have highlighted how you peddle false narratives related to Mr. Jaishankar, by constantly harping on the Indo US nuclear deal, which was done under the UPA Government. I will repeat this now – you are peddling false narratives about the performance of the Rafale, and the Indian Air Force, when the truth is quite different. Either that, or your analysis is sub par. Either way, it’s not acceptable.
Amit@ — there’s nothing “false” about Jaishankar’s disastrous role in negotiating the N-deal with the US. If you have any doubts please look up the 2009 compendium of writings by PK Iyengar, AN Prasad, A Gopalakrishnan and myself — “Strategic Sellout: India-US Nuclear Deal”. Talking of Rafale in the Sindoor op, did you listen to Air Marshal AK Bharti’s prevarication in the press briefing earlier this evening? When asked about IAF aircraft losses, he all but admitted them, saying in war such losses can be expected.
I am happy to have contra viewpoints on this blog but will not anymore tolerate wild accusations. Whatever I write is backed by scrupulously researched books, papers and other writings, and my discussion with people in the loop and/or with experience. You seem to wing it. Please feel free to disengage from this Blog.
@Amit @BharatKarnad
Well i don’t want to get in between of you and professor’s conversation but
AM Ak bharti also said that i cannot confirm nor deny the losses of IAF he was asked about PAF looses too but refused to answer further saying that it reveals operational details now this really raises serious doubts and supports professor’s analysis. And he also added that we shot down their planes in their territory but refused to give a concrete number.
A Pakistani senior airforce officer released a 10-15min video explaining that how they shot down 5 IAF jets Infront of the international press journalist from CNN,NYT he explained this which IAF failed too counter through their own proofs and naratives.
Well it was jaishankar(joint secretary then) who was the main negotiator he and shyam sharan. How can you deny his role. And look at jaishankar’s terrible neighborhood policy
@BharatKarnad You are right– the truth, facts & logic !
Sir,
Some very sobering, and depressing insights.
That said, I find it interesting that anyone seriously believed that changing geographic boundaries was even a possible outcome of this exercise. Its only purpose was to inflict some punishment on Pakistan and demonstrate to the Indian public that we won’t take this lying down, i.e., it was mainly demonstrative rather than strategic. The strategic moves to inflict pain on Pakistan have barely begun, though it is fair to wonder why it’s taken us this long to counter asymmetric warfare with some of our own.
To be fair, we did do some damage: Our ability to strike Pakistan’s air bases almost at will and potentially limit the ability of the PAF to even take to the air is a pretty big deal, since the PAF appears to be the most lethal of their armed forces.
But, as you point out, we likely sustained some serious blows as well, on Day One.
Is the era of the dogfight completely over, and rather than go head-to-head, and we instead take out airborne jets from hundreds of kms away? Does India have a plan to create an equivalent kill chain that the PAF demonstrated it has?
IAF has the elements for it, but hasn’t put it together as the PAF has managed.
Prof. Karnad are you able to give authentic info on India’s tactical or battlefield nuks-how many nos ,etc? Do we have a policy of using them if serious loss of territory is certain- Adm Arun Prakash once mentioned this.
Looking forward to your reply.
Thanks!
No, such numbers are not in the public realm. Not sure we have such a policy against China where more loss of territory is possible. Reason why in my 2018 book published by Penguin — Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition, I proposed a layered shortfuse deterrent with placement of atomic demolition munitions and canisterised N-missiles on the LAC.
Sir, Please delete this war is still going on..
@BharatKarnad
your analysis is so accurate after seeing today briefing i am convinced
professor any updates on your new title is it near completion can we expect it by 2025 end?
The book is coming along. Thanks
100 Rafales to cost additional thousands of billions of US dollars?
You are criticizing Indian choice based on cost. I am not objecting to that or supporting that. But when your main premise is based on the ‘expenditure’ you ought do the math right. 100 Rafales at $250 millions wont be costing thousands of billions dollars. That would be 25 billion dollars. Even if you take TCO (Total Cost of operations, it will not amount to a thousand billion US dollars, let alone thousands of dollars.
Tag on inflation-indexed spares and servicing support and lifetime costs over 35 years and….
The 7 billion deal for 26 Navy fighters should I think be the last of these expensive jets. Money better spent on AMCA and indigenous engine program. I am more disappointed that we can spend billions on jets but can’t ensure bunkers and basements in civilian houses in border areas. So many civilian deaths in artillery firings in Poonch and Uri.
A K Anthony is currently being criticized for not procuring them in 2014 MMRCA by saying where is the money? But as you explained cost is really prohibitive.
Dear Dr Karnad , you alongside Praveen Sawhney are probably the 2 most cooler and saner defense experts remaining in this country which is probably going through madness induced by psychosis. Take my salute sir. Now my question is why do you think General Munir may be the first casualty of this war ?
Had Op Sindoor lasted longer, Munir would have been a definite casualty. He still might be if the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, gets the conference of corps commanders up against the COAS for jeopardising the army’s hold on Pakistan.
Dear Dr Karnad , Gen. Munir is supposed to retire by November, 2025 however the present Shahbaz Sharif government which came to power due to a hugely controversial and disputed election within Pakistan in 2024 , has given him an extension. However extensions always create problems for sitting generals since other legitimate competitors to the throne want to create obstacles for the sitting generals. Now days, it is very difficult if not downright impossible to follow the Pakistani internal politics since almost all channels are blocked by the Indian government (surprisingly even some pro-India as well as saner and rational voices’ channels also blocked) but I have seen some channels saying given the PAF did well even with a constrained budget as you mentioned so why not some of the top generals give up more political power and concentrate only on the battle space for upcoming future conflicts.
The calculation of Missile firing and timing is so wrong as per the speed of PL-15. It will give at least 30 seconds, not 9 seconds.
So a few of your claims do not stand.
hey, don’t forget it is President Trump ordering you to behave and cease fire. When he told you so, you do so. You got slapped by China many times and you screw up French jets.
Funny that its coming from a ching chong. Tell you Pakie clients to install a functional AD that’s not actually junk tier.
Dear Dr Karnad, I really feel that a lot of Pakistani young commentators are following you on your recent interview in Vaad and they want actually that some of their army generals give up more on their luxurious life styles and focus more upon the way PAF has done “kill chain” in a cost effective way as you mentioned. So your prediction on Gen Asim Munir may come true that he as well as the Army overall may well loose more political power if the younger generation demands that for battle space situation, Pakistani generals shun political power and concentrate more upon battle space.
@BharatKarnad
professor can their be a attempted coup to overthrow the general mullah munir by his own corps commanders.
heard the interview of a former air marshall of PAF who said that no amount of jazba will save us from the Indian forces who are 3-4 times superior.I mean sane and realist people too exist in pakistan who clearly know the end results of fighting with india.
Will the pak army establishment take out munir ?
Dear Dr Karnad, One really bad and distasteful episode took place when Major Gaurav Arya in his YouTube channel called the visiting Iranian foreign minister Abbas Aragchi , a PIG ( his exact words were “suvar ke bacchha” ) , I mean how low can we stoop as a nation when a visiting dignatory like the Iranian foreign minister would be called such expletives by rabidly pro-government “geopolitical and defense commentators” for publicity and the government of the day would not utter a single word in protest !!! Let’s not forget that Iran and Pakistan both share the Baluchistan situation and this could bring them together on Baluchistan issue and isolate India further
cant understand how can he draw sweeping conclusions frn three days if skirmjsh.. And quoting nyt or telegraph as evudence?? Didnt he get any more anti india publicatiins? At least wait fr indian official proof or repsonse or even some concrete proof visually given by pakistan dont go by claims and conjectures
India did a far more damage to pak and even if any indian plane is down doesnt mean we dont invest in sucj platforms till we get our own indigenous ..afterall planes will b lost in any war not to say dat india did lose dem,lets see what comes out in d future probe and anlysis fr nw assuming even one rafale is lost
We downed mkre of their planes and yes platform are dere to deter and do damage not to stay in hangers and not be targetted by enemy power the answer is more sucj planes and more defensive tech , itsounds genius to sit back and trash every expensive peice if platform as of no use , but at d time of war thats what creates deterenece and most of them will damage the enemy dats what enemy fears doesnt natter if their radars pick up dese platforms or not dis is d nature of war
This piece is just a negative skeptic piece if narrative losing
the only way to permanently stop this is to make a deal with Pak. we cannot annihilate them, but they are so weak economucally that we can get a good deal for us. Otherwise, its all hail mary for western arms suppliers.
So you are a “conservative” strategist – does that mean NDA or INDIA? I find it remarkable that you would disclose your ideological bent. It means that you know you’re biased, and you know its polarity, and you’re not ashamed to admit it. The defence that some describe as world-class regional power is trash according to you. I would believe it if you were a nationalist.
I am an Edward Burke-ian conservative, ‘am for minimal government, against the over-bureaucratised socialist mess we have in India, for total indigenisation of the national security effort, including weapons design and manufacture, at any cost, for the private sector to be in charge of the indigenous rearmament process and DRDO/DPSUs/Ordnance factories put under the charge of leading private sector giants, for national interest alone as policy driver, and ‘am harshly and consistently critical of all defence policies not meeting these metrics — whatever party is in power. Still, by your reckoning that makes me not a “nationalist”!
Thank you. I wonder what you think of systems like NAVIC, BrahMOS, Akash and even more, Akashteer, which seems to have proven itself. Not to mention ISRO successes like cryogenic rocket engines.
These are very good systems, all the more welcome because they are indigenous — design on down
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/cracks-in-j-20s-stealth-with-no-buyers-exposure/
According to Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired) who is also a former Director-General of the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi, the PL-15 missile is often praised for its long range, but he doubts its effectiveness in electronic warfare-heavy environments. By contrast, the Rafale’s Meteor missile is combat-proven with the largest “no-escape zone” among current BVR missiles. Combined with Rafale’s advanced sensors and the SPECTRA electronic warfare suite, it offers a far more reliable and integrated combat capability.
All these “theoretical ” advantages of Rafale went out of the window in the face of full-spectrum electronic warfare that our jets were subjected to. The UK Telegraph article and this piece by Prof Karnad provide damning evidence why the entire Rafale fleet was reportedly grounded after the first day of operation.
Tell the UK Telegraph to dig into their past of Falkland war where the French Exocet created havoc on the British navy before mouthing nonsense on “full-spectrum electronic warfare” and make them aware that the naval variant of Rafale is equipped with the latest Exocet!
To this point in time, I could not find any iota of evidence that an IAF Rafale has been shot down excepting unsubstantiated and misleading references to links to justify such a conclusion. One may safely assume that the Pakis received a thrashing blow back by the Indian air power. This leads to glaring substandard in China’s “state-of-the art” military machinery.
One should watch out the virulent anti-India campaign unleashed in the Asian Times for covering up China and her expertise in latest defence technology to denigrate India. I suspect that journalism receives financial support from China and needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
On an aside Rafale has a naval variant for the French navy. That is armed with the dreaded French Exocet which is a BVR qualifier. Thus, there is no shortcoming for India’s Rafale to be equipped with a BVR category missile.
Sankar@ — Looks like you drank the Kool-Aid and are therefore oblivious to reality. The French are themselves saying at least one Rafale has been shot. Multiple wreckage and jet debris have been retrieved from Bhatinda and J&K. The DGAO says “losses are part of war”. But of course all these facts and details are lost on those who…..clutch on to theoretical info.
“… French are themselves saying …” –
Where? Could you please give me your reference.
“… DGAO says “losses are part of war”. …” –
Sure, some villagers in Punjab and Jammu have been hit by Paki firing from across the border. But this does not translate into a Rafale being shot down,
” … jet debris have been retrieved from Bhatinda … ” –
I have come across such news in a few instances. But each of these have been refuted by other posters as “fake news” for downing a Rafale. In one instance, a rocket motor of a missile appears as a fighter jet debris, some photos are at least two years old already appeared elsewhere and so on.
“… clutch on to theoretical info … ” –
If you are living in the UK, please check the archives of The Telegraph and other newspapers there to get informed on the Falkland War in the 1980s between Argentina and Britain and the havoc unleashed by the French missile Exocet.
Let me inform you about one thing which I am sure you are not aware of. Almost a decade ago, China sent a team of their brightest students to study and learn military technology under Professor M.Lesturgie in one of the colleges under the Paris University. And that is where the Chinese were learning the missile and fighter aircraft technology. It will be impossible for the Chinese now to excel over the French in their own game.
And as for “…full-spectrum electronic warfare … ” , could you explain what is meant scientifically?
My reply to Sankar@ below:
Seems you are still living in the early 1980s and have this “idea fixe” of the Falklands war and Exocet missiles, all of which pertain to ancient history at this point.
It is quite inane to presume what I know or don’t know. FYI, I was a professor at a top French grande ecole, so it makes you look rather daft in your presumptions.
My benevolent advice to you to remove the blinkers on your eyes, physical and mental, and open yourself to reality. Must be a rather pitiable existence to be a camp-follower.
@BharatKarnad
Professor, Modi in today’s speech says that if this is not an era of war then this is not an era of terror either.
He also said that from now there will be no distinction between terrorist and their sympathizers(Pak army) and that operation Sindoor has just been Haulted for a temporary amount of time and not ended .We have drawn a new redline and in future any act of terror will be avenged in the same manner.
Now coming to my question God forbid if there is another fidayeen attack in kashmir or any part of india maybe after 2 years will we see a similar response meaning we will now strike launchpads and pak army and airforce bases and exchange of missiles and drone across both the sides will be now a new normal
Apparently.
@Professor Karnad:
Do you think India has her own military satellite in space?
It is confirmed at least now from this latest skirmish that Indian military has very well mastered the modern technology of war. Thank you.
Yes, we have a small satellite constellation that has performed well.
@Professor Karnad,
There’s news of Russia offering joint production of S-500. Your take ?
Welcome news, if true.
none of u mentioned …that chinese HQ9 defence system was destroyed ..u didn’t mentioned that that Pakistan bases and the jets in hanger were taken out…u were only on proving how one jet got show down and telling how entire Air force assesment is wrong….tell me how much flight hours experience author have.
I don’t understand the rationale behind hitting their nuclear sites with the sole objective of “sending a message”. Unless the military and political leadership knows something that we don’t, and if the strike on the nuke site was just signaling, it just seems foolish.
Now the Pakis will take measures to further secure their nukes and we will not have the surprise element with us the next time around.
Seems like it was a foolish thing to do, in my opinion. Not sure what you think, Prof. Karnad.
Look, these reports about attacks on nuke sites is a bit exaggerated. The fact is Chaklala that was struck is an operational air base alongside it being the location for the Strategic Plans Division — Pakistan’s nuclear secretariat.
war is not the solution….
I think the real reason for ceasefire was that IAF had started to get an upper hand and USA felt better stop this war now at a stalemate. So this sounds like a missed opportunity as far as degrading some of Paks airforce goes. Other things about intelligence input to Vance sounds like a bluff.
India may have sent a Brahoms to Kirana and Chagai as is claimed in retaliation to the short range ballistic missile fired by Pak towards Delhi. As a layman I have limited view of mil matters but as a civilian and the intended soft target of the terrorists I can say this operation proved we can have limited conventional war with Pak, but did not show that Pak was deterred from sponsoring terror yet. That can’t be achieved without economic sanctions of some kind. Only hope nuclear blackmail does not work in making India backtrack on IWT.
Prof., have you read Tom Cooper’s recent articles on substack ? He is quite convinced about the hitting of nuclear facilities at Kirana hills and Nur Khan AB.
Not unreasonable view
It’s a rule that when you attack,you have more casuality. However it’s first time in history India attacked 100 km. Inside pakistan territory! Since no one knows the war room planning the author is playing with his dream sequence & not factual figure.
IAF Canberra sorties bombed Rawalpindi targets in the 1965 War. No problem with attacking, except PAF did it better — and that’s the point. Of course, I am not an insider because then I wouldn’t be publishing this. It is, however, informed speculation.
wonder how the defence person got all
this info which the Military Intelligence and IAF could not decipher or even obtain … merely parroting what the Western wires like Reuters etc tout is incorrigible.
it’s better that we allow facts to come out and it’s expected of a professional armed force in a democracy.
and especially to start conjuring up scenarios is not good form nor the current norm !!!
Post-mortems like in this post are informed speculations and quite normal when things go wrong, as in this case, in aerial combat. It can be done by anyone with some knowledge of evolving air warfare and the systems involved.
What India and Pakistan did was play a 20 20 match that was fixed with heavy betting in London. The real winner is China in all of this no matter what the Indian side claims.
SO according to your article tejas is invisible to pl 15 e and rafale will get a shot down. So now let me reveal something to you india used only tejas for operation sindoor no other aircraft was used. I saw downed f16 and j10 and jf 17 with with my own eyes and that too downed by tejas. You are relying on cnn for your information where as I was in pujab when paf fighters got downed and exploded. Don’t tell same story what every one saw on cnn. we all know how much lies cnn and BBC Speak you are a making a mistake if you are believing those cnn and bbc guy’s.
Hey, if your point is that Tejas has fared well in Sindoor, then you reinforce the point I have been making for years. Tejas is a great aircraft — but as a carrier of powerful longrange A2A and A2G weapons.
I feel that the Rafale, Gripen and to a large extent even the Eurofighter Typhoon are Light Mig 29 class aircraft. They are not meant for air Superiority, but front line aircraft that should be positioned on forward airbases. They ought to be cheap, plentiful and have high Thrust to Weight for quick climb and interception. The Eurofighter and maybe the Rafale fulfill the later requirement, but cheap and plentiful they are not.These planes cost more than a Heavy true air Superiority fighter like the Su 35 which is totally ridiculous. This means they are not expendable like the Mig 29. I think therefore it is safe to say that these planes have no place on the modern battlefield.
India should’ve gone with large number of Su 35 and Su 57 as well as engine upgradation for su 30 mki, then use Russias help to design an indigenous trainer or small AWACS or something. Something which could boost Indian Competency but also not threaten Russian arms market. Rafale is a useless aircraft and was already that back in 2011 when the deal was signed.
Saurus out.