[J&K Police Notice about the Pahalgam terrorists]
The terrorists have been identified, their antecedents ascertained, and the J&K Police Intel presently are involved in tracing the family connections, if any, of the above four attackers in Pahalgam who killed 26 tourists. The fact that Home Minister Amit Shah rushed from Delhi to Srinagar — even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided instantly to not cut short his state visit to Saudi Arabia, is the surest sign that no instant retaliation is in the offing. Because there’s simply no established system of instant retaliation. So the latest terrorist incident will be treated as sui generis and by the time investigations are completed, conclusions reached and the nature of punitive action decided on, the zest for a hardbitten response will have dissipated.
Predictably, “high level meetings” in Srinagar and in New Delhi have followed and, for all intents and purposes, little else will happen in the near time. That’s for sure, except more yacking.
Several generals featured on television news programmes talked of a menu of options available to the army and the government. To be realistic they are referring to the physical wherewithal for action — equipment, etc. It does not, however, amount to actual and ready plans for retaliatory action or ready target sets to be distributed to strike teams. There are no such plans to choose from and no prepared list of targets to go after, or set up for counterstrike/elimination. There was no instant retaliation after the December 13, 2000 terrorist attack on Parliament — the symbol of India’s sovereignty when even the US the usual pressurer of India to do nothing, expected an Indian reaction. Or after the seaborne attack on Mumbai in 2008, when US pressured the Manmohan Singh regime to do nothing. So India’s not reacting is, unfortunately, quite normal.
The Pahalgam incident is, of course, a Pakistan army-ISI operation propelled by COAS Munir’s notice soon after he took over from General Qamar Bajwa that the Pakistan army would give up its “passivism” on the border. That should have sounded the tocsin and the intel agencies and the state and central police agencies as well as the army ought to have gone on alert, which did not happen. Munir’s speech in Rawalpindi a few days ago, where he reiterated the basis of the “Two Nation” theory and Pakistan’s claims on J&K should have set our antennae whirring. This Pahalgam massacre that followed, marked a revival of terrorism with a bang that caught the Indian state unawares and flatfooted.
The ISI chose a strange time for a terrorist strike though. The US government arranged for the 26/11 terrorist attack planner Tawwawur Rana, a Canadian citizen, to be repatriated to India. Vice President JD Vance is visiting the country and this terrorist strike will, therefore, stay in his mind and when he returns to Washington he is likely to be amongst those who will argue with Trump for facilitating or, at least not hindering, an Indian military strike deep enough inside Pakistan to blow up, say, the LeT HQrs at Muridke — because that’s the level of response that is now called for. But, it is doubtful the Indian government will muster the boldness for such response. The former Pak foreign minister, Mahmud Kasuri, recalls in his memoirs that after the 26/11 attack, US senators John McCain and Lindsay Graham visited him to sound him out on the possible Pakistani reaction to India mounting a retaliatory strike against Muridke. Naturally, he hinted to the Americans that the action-reaction sequence could escalate to the nuclear level. That apparently dampened any enthusiasm the Manmohan Singh regime had for striking Muridke, and that was the last anyone heard about a like response.
Sure, in recent times, several terrorist leaders have been assassinated in Pakistan, But these are apparently not salutary enough for Munir and his gang who seem determined to stir things up because he calculates that Pakistan has less to lose in comparison to India with a healthy economy, etc. And that this fact alone should deter New Delhi from mounting a harsh response. The threat of Pakistan initiating nuclear weapons use is the stock backup card, Munir thinks, will work.
Have long maintanied and detailed in my books why the N-threat by Pakistan is hollow — the exchange ratio does not play out in GHQ, Rawalpindi’s favour. This scenario has been gamed so many times in so many locations and the results are the same: For the loss of two Indian cities, Pakistan will cease to exist, in the Spenglerian sense, as a social organism. Moreover, I have argued, it will never be allowed by the generals to get to that stage because such a war will zero out the 30% of the Pak economy controlled directly or indirectly by the army/military which has allowed Pakistani officers to live out prosperous retired lives. So, there’s great incentive for them to not cross the nuclear rubicon — reason why I have contended India can actually afford to conventionally escalate, to up the ante. That requires the Indian government to hold its nerve, and that is a big ask.
Further, as a cradle of Islamic terrorism, Pakistan is in the crosshairs also of the US Nuclear Emergency Support Teams (NEST) comprising Special Forces trained to take out terrorist state nuclear arsenals such as the Pakistani nuclear inventory. Something that special units within the Israeli Mossad are geared to do as well. May be it is time the Indian government actively cooperated in particular with Israeli agencies to contain this threat.
Modi’s statement from Riyadh could result, as in the past few years, in covert operations to bump off this or that Lashkar-e-toiba operative or field commander residing within Pakistan. But such plans take time to evolve and execute.
In the mean time a durable solution has to be considered. Assuming the Kashmiri youth in the Valley have jobs, gain from tourist traffic and generally don’t want to risk the attention of the army’s Rashtriya Rifles/Intel groups, and like the above identified perpetrators of the Pahalgam killings, are foreign born and, in any case, staged out of Pakistan/POK, then the Israeli border solution suggests itself as the remedy. It is a bloodyminded but high-tech solution worth pondering: An electronic wall of sensors — movement sensors, thermal imagers, audio sensors along the length of the LOC activating high rate of fire machine guns placed in overlapping arcs of fire along the border. Anyone trying to sneak in from the other side will immediately cue the machine guns in that area to range in on the intruders for immediate targeting-to-kill. In other words, these machine guns slaved to banks of sensors promise automaticity of fire response and almost certain death to intruders. This is what Israel created on the Gaza border, but were surprised when the Hamas countered it — which they were able to do only because the Israeli security forces were lulled into complacency. As were the Indian security forces in J&K today.
The machines guns firing first, for humans to ask questions later is, perhaps, the tandem the Indian government agencies need to implement. You intrude, you get shot. Good solution.
Security Wise 
first you mentioned modi decided not to cut short his trip, but per news he did cut his trip and returning to india. Secondly most of inflitration is done using underground tunnels not sure how your suggestion will help in such scenerio.
Vivek@ — There’s a project the press reported about inserting seismic sensors along the LOC to detect any tunnel digging.
Modi is most incompetent….. yes he is without a doubt.
Most surprising is not a word from NSA.
@Ashman- Re: NSA. In an article in Caravan magazine a few years back, which exposed one of his sons doing secret business dealings with Pakistan with the help of a Pakistani national and a Saudi Prince.
Lots of post-match analysis from armchair cricketers like yourself.
Prof Karnad reliably comes out with his editorials after the fact, not before. 20-20 Hindsight is nothing special.
For the record, I am against any surgical strike response, like post-Pulwama. For all we know, Pak is hoping and waiting for this to happen, looking to ambush our raiding parties by laying traps. I feel the Baloch option is the best way to go here.
sanman@ — on point re: post-match, etc. But, unless in the loop, how does one know of a terrorist strike in the works?
Fair to say though that Indian intel — famed for deep penetration of Pak establishment, came up empty this time, and on all previous occasions. So, yea, one reacts only after the event. What’s at issue is the timing and nature of retaliation.
@Sanman- Indian establishment is involved in spreading mayhem across Pakistan since decades through R.A.W.
Armchair geopolitical novices like you aren’t aware of this fact. You play the Balochistan card. Pakistani establishment will play the Kashmir card like this.
Now go and read some books to enlighten yourself rather than relying on WhatsApp University.
John banegaa Don@ Yes, I’m acutely aware that India does things in Pakistan. But what good does it do? They don’t care, don’t mind if their own people die, since they see them as just more disposables, like their cannon-fodder troops and fidayeen. It’s like stabbing a zombie — what’s the point, when its flesh is already dead? Those people have nothing to live for, so they don’t mind these death-matches and cock-fights. We’ve entered into this pit due to their nuclearization, which gave them a shield to hide behind. We need to go for some major attacks on infrastructure — cut off limbs from the zombie, to cripple them. This should be done without direct overt military action, since it’s likely that China wants to stoke a new conflict that bogs down India, and are backing Pak in this endeavour for this purpose.
Standard Indian response- We strongly condemn this cowardly attack. Establishment of cowards.
Doordarshan@ — Establishment of impulsive hotheads can also bring defeat, by blundering into traps laid by the enemy. I’m against a surgical strike, like post-Pulwama. I’d prefer to go with safe retaliation options, like the Baloch route.
PM has arrived in delhi cutting short the meeting
PM Modi arrives in Delhi after cutting short Saudi visit post Pahalgam attack
FM is also coming back.
Pahalgam terror attack: FM Nirmala Sitharaman cuts short her US, Peru visit- ‘to be with our people in difficult time’ | Today News
@Kusgara- What difference will their coming back make? They will just issue a few statements. That’s all
Prof Karnad,
Greetings!
Wouldn’t it be extremely shoddy optics for COAS Munir would have orchestrated this attack right when the US Veep was touring India? Moreover heard that foreign tourists including Israeli citizens were among those killed? Do not recollect foreign tourists targeted after 26/11.
Also would you think Munir is a stronger hardliner compared to Bajwa, and this is yet another attempt for him to increase the army’s legitimacy in Pakistan? For example when Imran Khan was jailed the public outpouring of his support must have been worrying GHQ, Rawalpindi?
Do you think co-opting with US at this time will weaken India’s bargaining chips for the tariffs and free trade stuff being done with Washington? Although not sure how much tangible will come out of the trade deals anyway.
Agree with you that it has forced GoI’s hand to prepare an exemplary response, which probably needs to be a magnitude larger than Uri/ Balakot. Trump seems to be a highly transactional president, which might actually make it easier for India to follow a hard line if it wishes so.
And lastly this is surely a massive intel failure on our side. What would you think might have gone wrong?
chappan enchee kaa seenaa hai
feer bhee dar dar ke jeenaa hai
kees momeen kaa saath aur kees momeen par veeshwaas?
kees momeen kaa veekaas aur kees momeen par prayaas?
@BharatKarnad
Don’t know why but after seeing this carnage one of your podcast came into my mind
where you said that ISI chief hamid gul told you that they have 600 sleeper cells operating inside india and we cannot do anything about it because we are “buzdill(coward)”
That word is so accurate and defines us
@Mishra-Exactly my thoughts otherwise why doesn’t Modi order these overpriced Rafael’s to fly to Pakistan and level all their military installations.
Rafale is a white elephant
when you have something so expensive in less numbers you will be hesitant to use it again then what was the point of inducting it in the forces then?
@Mishra- The point of inducting Rafael’s in the Indian Air Force was just to get huge commissions.
GOI doesn’t the sense to use Rafalels, if they succeed in their mission then good. If they get shot down by Pakistani army then also more Rafales ca be bought and earn more commission.
In terms of geopolitical games. This one is a master stroke by Pakistani establishment. It has embarrassed Modi globally. The whole world knows that India is no saint and is involved in clandestine operations in destabilizing Pakistan.
Kashmir’s economy was doing quite good. Last year in 2024 around 35 Lakh tourists visited the region including 43000 foreign tourists. This incident will destroy the region’s tourism industry no tourist either domestic or foreign will be visiting Kashmir for the next two years at least.
The only option left for Modi now to salvage his reputation is to launch an all out attack on Pakistan.
China will join in the action in such a scenario and India will lose the war badly, if not Kashmir then at least the Chicken’s neck will be severed resulting in India losing its north eastern states.
Indian army leadership long accustomed to getting fat on the heavy commissions from the foreign arms purchase isn’t capable of fighting any war so, they will convince Modi not to take any aggressive actions against Pakistan.
Spot on
Email from Dr V. Siddhartha, former Science Adviser to Defence Minister
V Siddhartha
Wed, 23 Apr at 1:52 pm
Reur”…. activating high rate of fire machine guns placed in overlapping arcs of fire along the border. Anyone trying to sneak in from the other side will immediately cue the machine guns in that area to range in on the intruders for immediate targeting-to-kill.”
Add:”…and specially-designed flame throwers https://www.twz.com/news-features/medieval-flame-throwing-trebuchet-is-israels-latest-weapon,
Note also that Islamists are prepared for martyrdom by bullets, but dread being burnt — apparently (?), Islam specifies this form of death as punishment for sins committed.
VS
This is a now or never opportunity for India. Putin has already shown the world that wars haven’t gone out of fashion. Russia-Ukraine war is already in its fourth year.
India should start total war with Pakistan immediately. Balochistan rebels who have the backing of R.A.W will initiate internal disturbances in Pakistan keeping the army occupied.
India should then help in the liberation and creation of a new nation Balochistan and the Indian army march right into Islamabad after liberating the whole of P.O.K
Imran Khan who enjoys the wide support of Pakistani public should be released from the jail and installed as the next P.M of Pakistan.
Pakistani army should be disbanded and condition imposed on Pakistan not to have any army for the next 50 years.
Imran Khan should be made to give in writing that Pakistani establishment won’t meddle ever again in Kashmir.
Professor Karnad
How does one even deter an entity like pakistan that perceives this as some sort of 1000 year holy/ethnic/demographic war (which they are confident they will win, if for no other reason than due to demographics) over zan, zar and zameen short of regime change &/or intel control over their elites (which is what the western establishment typically does)?
Even Iran and Afghanistan have failed to prevent their interference, only China has been able to prevent them from aligning with the uyghurs, though even China has failed to get the Afghans to give up the east turkestan militants
Was the FATF saga the only time when they seemed to feel some heat to pretend like they were doing something?
What does the history of attempts to modulate, moderate and regulate pakistani behavior like the Pressler amendment tell us?
*Also, were the Americans behind the elimination of Zia when he clashed with them over their competing visions for a post-Soviet afghanistan? If so, how did they stage manage the smooth transition internally within the pakistani military and intel agencies and how do pull off such things in general? (Tashkent comes to one’s mind too) Is the groundwork already laid by that point or do things fall in place rapidly?
This attack is not surprising we’re used to it. It’s an expected scenario. It may sound harsh, but our armed forces appear increasingly inept and incompetent, especially in how they keep dilly-dallying instead of providing a decisive military response. This is exactly the kind of situation they should be prepared for. Don’t they realize we need a rapid retaliatory capability, and that it has to be built during peacetime?
What are they doing all this time? It’s starting to feel like they’re no better than other ineffective branches of the government. They always seem to divert the issue towards political or diplomatic solutions whenever the executive demands a military response. If that’s the case, maybe some of these generals need to be held accountable or even fired.
If Pakistan, with its struggling economy, can build a credible deterrence, then why can’t we? What’s stopping us? The harsh truth is that the quality of military leadership has been subpar it’s simply not good enough for the challenges we face.
Maybe that’s exactly why politicians hesitate to opt for a military response they find the armed forces unreliable when it actually matters. But they can’t say it openly, because doing so could damage public morale and faith in national security institutions.
@BharatKarnad
Professor can’t those 3 strike corps be utilized know
i mean we can go a little bit offensive or at least be aggressive on LOC
India can do a lot by way of retaliation; the political will is lacking.
@BharatKarnad
professor what about indus water treaty let us trash that goddamn treaty no need to follow it
divert the water from those 3 rivers to haryana and rajasthan
Modi too said that blood and water cannot flow together
would like to know your opinion
It is an option.
@BharatKarnad
what a coincidence just now the government secretary Mr misri declared that we suspend indus water treaty till further notice
Also the attari border will be closed and pak citizens asked to leave india in next 48 hours
But sir don’t you think I mean I was wondering suspending this treaty and stopping pakistan’s water can lead us to war
because at a point pakistanis will to loose their patience water is very important for any nation and stopping pakistan’s water is like grabbing their neck for a long time
would like to know your views specifically pakistan’s response option?
Suspension of the Indus treaty does not mean an immediate water cutoff — just that Indian dam building, etc won’t be limited by the treaty
V Siddhartha, former science adviser to defence minister
Wed, 23 Apr at 8:14 pm
… additionally, killed terrorists should be cremated, not buried.
VS
Very disappointing to see Modi government chicken out. Indian army has been unnecessarily hyped up by BJP since 2014 now the army leadership has realized that there’s no point in fighting just keep enjoying the perks of cantonment life.
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/what-indias-suspension-of-the-indus-waters-treaty-means-for-pakistan-and-for-itself-9962032/?ref=hometop_hp
The last paragraph sums it up brilliantly;
“However, it is important to note that the suspension will not have an immediate impact for a few years, as India currently lacks the infrastructure to either stop the flow of water into Pakistan or divert it for its own use.”
Dear Dr Karnad, with India unilaterally abrogating the IWT , do you think it will encourage others in the region also to either come out of their respective water sharing treaties with New Delhi or move into Chinese orbit for support in water management ?
China is aleady doing its worst on the Brahmaputra. So we won’t be much worse off at that end. It can fiddle with the headwaters of the Indus also in Tibet. In that case, their client, Pakistan, will be completely cutoff from any water because India can then dam the western rivers allotted to Pak by the IWT.
@BharatKarnad
Exactly professor
China has already approved world’s largest $137-billion dam on the Brahmaputra close to the Indian border. The dam is to be built at a huge gorge in the Himalayan reaches where the Brahmaputra makes a huge U-turn to flow into Arunachal Pradesh and then to Bangladesh
They already have started the weaponization of water.
Professor, more than the last gasps of a failing empire that you described the U.S. to be, this attack by Pakistan are among the last gasps of a failing state. If you understand the game India is playing in Pakistan such retaliation is to be expected. But in the end India will prevail. It has now got the justification to be more aggressive. However, no need to show bravado as you suggest. There are many levers India can pull (Indus water treaty is something it’s already pulled). I expect many more to follow – it just won’t be in the manner you advocate. Perhaps rightly so.
Dear Dr Karnad , do you think that the present Pahelgam attack is a response to the Indian and BLA joint attack on the Jaffer express in Pakistan recently ? If this attack is a response to Indian role in Balochistan then should we rethink our policy in Balochistan wrt BLA ?
The question is can an attack be traced to terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. The Pahalgam massacre can be. The strike on Jaffer Express to the recognised BLA — so a difference. BLA is sourced to Balochistan. LeT & JeM to Pakistan.
Dear Dr Karnad , you yourself have said that in 2019, India actually managed to get a ceasefire on the LoC with Gen Bajwa at the helm. So far the peace in LoC and Kashmir has been maintained by both sides. Even General Munir also did keep the ceasefire on the LoC for last couple of years. However, what actually made us support the terrorists Balochistan ?
BLA and other Baloch outfits get their funding from a host of sources. And India’s support is only a speculation.
Here is a moderate, liberal and environmentally friendly solution: create a bio agent that will permanently make their pop infertile.
well quite radical and ruthless tbh
It’s on the same lines as Edward Luttwak’s strategy towards Afghanistan. Luttwak is one of the people who understands the ontology of the desert people, and does not deceive himself or others with soothing lies – a rarest trait among geostrategists.
Contraceptives, or depopulation, is the only way to address PK and BD. Everthing else is futile chatter.
Desert mindset in alluvial plains peoples (by and large in PK and BD)
‘Desert’ is used as a substitute for ‘M’ in order to evade censoring algorithms.
‘M’ software works well with any hardware. We can’t change the software, therefore, work to eliminate the hardware in PK, BD and IN.
Is a naval blockade in the Arabian Sea feasible and justifiable ?
Offcourse it is feasible pakistani navy is almost non existent(they might have a few missile boats and 1-2 frigate) they are no match for the indian navy. And we had a naval blockade during kargil and 1971 too.
Well was the carnage in pahalgam justified??
@Mishra- And what Doval is doing in Balochistan is it justified?
Mobile msg from a former XIV (Leh) Corps Commander:
Read your article. Hard hitting, and correct to a fault. Which is why it hurts!
Sir, after the recent attack, everyone in India is expecting a strong response perhaps even a limited-scale military operation against Pakistan. However, I have a deeper concern that I feel no one is addressing seriously.
Is it possible that Pakistan acted under the influence of a bigger power, maybe China, or some other superpower — deliberately to provoke India into a war? Could it be that dragging us into a conflict is exactly what these powers want, so that our focus shifts away from economic growth, and our economy takes a severe hit? Maybe they are playing a long game, hoping that an escalation could even spiral into a larger regional war.
Sir, what do you think? In such a situation, should India retaliate militarily, or would doing so mean we are falling into their trap?
I am asking you because, you are the only expert to give a clear, reasoned answer. The TV news channels just run noisy, pointless debates.
Dhairya@ — Keeping potential peer competitors and rivals roiled in domestic and external troubles
is an old global power politics staple. While, nothing can be ruled out, the motivation for the
Pahalgam killings may be traced to the Pak army chief Asim Munir’s personal beliefs based on alarm
that anti-India sentiments are eroding in his country — the youth in particular being drawn to
the common subcontinental culture in India. And that, if not periodically stoked by terrorist acts, Pakistan in the future could collapse into a larger India.
You don’t need ‘you bleed me, i pinch you’ to go on indefinitely, and the approach of fortifying borders will not lead to lasting solutions. These instinctive intermittent responses will not solve our security problems. We need a sustained, long-term strategy to dissolve PK and BD; anything short of that is just impotent whining.
The removal of foundational structures in Syria by Israelis, as was previously done in Iraq, is now leading to the dissolution of those nations. Similarly, the Central Asian states have transformed due to Soviet influences. In a few decades, China’s East Turkistan will also face significant dissolution.
There is great potential for prosperity in the land west of the Sutlej, particularly with a skilled governor managing a population of 1 lakh that is mainly engaged in mining and agriculture. It is essential that we take action and quietly bring this vision to life.
This is prompted by a quote from Bharat Karnad in 2012 and is built around the quote. Starts with an invocation to Bharat Karnad
4https://www.youthkiawaaz.com/2025/04/from-howdy-modi-to-howdy-trump-indias-tightrope-walk/
@Gagandeep- Very well written composition. I also read the one written by you about the tragic love affair between an Indian man and the Pakistani woman.
Mr. Karnad undoubtedly is a rare breed. His writings as well as his talks are full of wisdom and great insights.
It’s the tragedy of our nation that a man like him hasn’t got his due. He ought to be either the foreign minister or the NSA of India.
Coming back to this Pahalgam tragedy sorry to say that it was long overdue.
All this hype about ‘Doval’s doctrine’ and the sadistic pleasure being taken by Indian public about the happenings in Balochistan well the chickens have come home to roost.
Modi government still has the cry baby syndrome inherited from the previous Congress regime. What’s the point of cribbing to the world about Pakistan? You got a problem fight it out yourselves.
I might offend sensibilities here but I believe that Indian army has been spoilt rotten by this establishment by being conferred a holier than thou aura on it.
Thank you Gaurav. That gives me heart.
Professor,
India’s war strategy against Pakistan must remain covert. No need for bravado and display of strength. Maybe it can carry out some strikes to appease the population which is baying for blood, but overall its approach should be to accelerate covert ops, economic warfare, diplomatic isolation etc. to further weaken Pakistan which will lead to its break up. Pakistan remains a gnat and there is no need for heavy tools to swat it.
What will China do if India does another surgical strike on Pakistan ?
Gab Singh@ — Nothing
I rather doubt that China will sit quite and allow India to hammer Pakistan again. China has openly declared that they will help Pakistan protect its sovereignty.
Gab — China will not get into this mess.
As you can see the current situation between India and pak
Professor in a 2015 Carnegie event former SPD commander Khalid Kidwai (i know he is not the main guy it’s Ausaf Ali) says that India’s massive retaliation in response to a low yield tactical strike on an Indian Armoured column thrust is not very thought off and sensible option because Indians have not laid their attention on the kind of nuclear weaponry and arsenal that Pakistan has
Now Kidwai says that if their is an Indian massive retaliation(i assume on their counterforce and countervalue targets) in response to a Pakistani first tactical strike then there will be a counter massive retaliation from Pakistan
If you could clear that can Pakistan do this or it’s just another bluff
Here is that video
Timestamps:- 32:35
Aditya@ — If you have read my book, I have detailed why “massive retaliation” is a ridiculous response to battlefield first use by Pak. Kidwai is saying nothing new here. The trouble is Brajesh Mishra, the know-nothing NSA to Vajpayee, screwed up by not adopting the doctrine we had drafted whole, coming up with the half-baked massive retaliation nonsense. Except, in practical terms the SFC is geared to the flexible response implicit in the draft doctrine.
aru mentioning the 2002 book nuclear weapons and Indian security
Yes
Dear Dr Karnad , I believe the Pahalgam attack is a continuation of the proxy wars we have seen in the region ever since the British left. Support to the Khampa rebels in Tibet by both India and (East) Pakistan under CIA tutilage, then the Afghan support for the likes of Fakir of Ippi for Pashtunistan , then Indian support for the Mukti bahini, followed up by the Pakistani support for the Afghan mujahidin in Afghanistan and then the Pakistani support for the Khalistanis and later for the Kashmiri insurgency, Indian support for the Baluch terrorists and also Indian support for the Chittagong hill tract insurgents fighting Bangladeshi state and tit for tat support for the ULFA and other North East insurgents by the Bangladeshis and not to forget the Indian support for the Tamil tigers. Thus this is a continuation of the proxy wars that states in the region employ against each other time to time for tactical geopolitical gains. Only the Gujral doctrine period was somewhat safer as Mr IK Gujral has refused to entertain the demands by the RAW officers to intervene in foreign soil using proxies.
typhoon@ — It is a dog-eat-dog world we live in. So,the Gujral decision was bad policy, worse strategy
“Freedom fighting” is not in the category of “proxy wars” by any means. Khampas were fighting to get rid of Chinese occupation of their motherland Tibet, Bangladesh fought for independence from Pakistani subjugation, Algerians fought for liberation of their country from French colonial rule etc., etc. – all these were for gaining freedom and well justified in a civilised world. In this case of Kashmir attack Pakistan masterminded and engaged their agents to stage their continuing covert war against the Indian state – it is a form of aggression against the Indian State and Delhi must fight this with her full military might.
@Amit, One person’s freedom fighters is another person’s terrorist. If we support Muktijoddhas in 1971 for our own interest, how can we condemn Pakistan for supporting insurgency in Kashmir and Khalistan ?
Professor Karnad,
Is it true what I have read for some sources of “blurry” news of that era, that the public servants in the external affairs and other ministries of that era had repeatedly warned the PM Nehru “not to sign” the Indus Water Treaty, presumably with the vision, it would mortgage Indian sovereign rights in the future? I also have also read that India received substantial amount of US dollars as “compensation” whatever it was for? Anyway, gullible Nehru fell in the trap of the US. I doubt Indira Gandhi would have gone that way.
Thank you.
True, there were those who advised against IWT. Nehru was inclined to accept anything coming from UK; India G was equally susceptible to US pressure.
@Bharat
Please give me a reason why Modi Government is not going on the offensive against Pakistan after such a horrendous attack.
Pakistan has openly taken responsibility for this Pahalgam attack. There is 100% evidence that this is not a false flag operation and it is the work of Pak army/ISI.
Bharatji, does the JD Vance visit got anything to do with this Pahalgam Attack ?
China may want to point it out to India to not get onboard American/Trump trade war against China. I think China is the main culprit behind Pahalgam attack.
Otherwise I don’t think Pakis will openly take responsibility and even threaten all out was with India.
@BharatKarnad
professor how much resistance can pakistani conventional forces put infront of indian forces if our forces ingress into a particular sector
One thing is it will not be as easy as these tv anchors who are shouting “war “claim
No, not easy.
There are only three so called powerful people in BJP. Modi, Shah and Doval. Rest all in the party are are herd of sheep following the aforementioned.
These three are scared to initiate any misadventure because they know Indian army is totally overhyped and won’t be able to handle the three front war. (Pakistan, China and Bangladesh)
Well, a good point makes here.
It reminds of Pakistan’s President Gen Yahya Khan who in 1971 had China and the US on his side to unleash his airstrike in the afternoon of 3 Dec 1971 on the western airfields of India that precipitated the Bangladesh war. What triggered Pakistan then is history now.
Dear Sir,
Do you think that we have again missed a golden opportunity by not cancelling the IWT altogether?
Instead we just suspended it!
A suspended action can be potentially resumed, can this prove, later in future, costly for us with pressure to resume it again?
Your thoughts?
India can get out of any international agreement it has signed at any time.
@karnad- US, Russia and China can. Indian leaders don’t have the guts to walk out of any agreement.
Modi has turned from self proclaimed Vishvguru’ into ‘Vishvidushak’(global clown)
Here he was preaching to Putin and the world sometime back this era is not for war and now he is openly threatening Pakistan without following up his useless rhetoric with any meaningful, hardcore action.
Dear Sir,
Since it’s only suspended will construction of any Dam or water diversion thereon will attract scrutiny from World Bank or any international court ?
In which case can matters may proceed legally to force India to either resume the treaty in some modified form or to make it take a bolder step to cancel it then altogether?
One security expert on a TV show was saying we should have cancelled it as suspension doesn’t carry much weight in legal terms.
Thanks for your insights !
It is unclear. But India should do whatever it wants to do, limited by no law.
Prof Karnad, The PM just met the NSA , and three army chiefs as shown in the news. Is War imminent now?
sowl@ — Some action, perhaps. But war, no.
When ever any military action takes place, army, navy or airforce is given free hand as they only knows the technical details and operational hindrance they might face…! This government and their well fed godi media just knows how to make noise on everything. Like they shouted on Indus water treaty, closing of Attari border, not giving visa or even asking Pakistani national to leave India. Just eye wash and fooling people.
ALL DRAMA GOING ON. NOTHING WILL HAPPEN.
@BharatKarnad
professor can you please tell in a short summary maybe few lines that what is this Sialkot grab that you propose in case if chaklalus plan to use their tactical nuclear weapons
because i mean i cannot confirm but according to many Pakistani sources Indian forces have surrounded the the Akhnoor chickens neck from 3 sides and this can pose a serious threat to sialkot
No, just what it says “grab Sialkot”!
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/indian-origin-uk-mp-lord-meghnad-desai-calls-for-india-to-take-over-pok-kashmir-pahalgam-terror-attack-2717290-2025-04-30
What he is saying is the only solution but I don’t think Indian politicians and army have the guts to do it.
Where is that pilot Abhi None Done (the fake Falcon (F-16) slayer of India. We want to see him in action again.