The Beatdown of Zelensky: Hard Lessons for Modi & India

[Zelensky and the bullies, Trump and Vance]

The merciless tag-team beatdown of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by the US President and Vice President, Donald Trump and JD Vance, in the White House was unprecedented in the annals of history. Such humiliation in another era would have led to war. The new German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, called it “deliberate escalation”. In the present time, when Ukraine cannot fight without American arms, and Europe while showing solidarity with Ukraine cannot do much by way of rescuing Kyiv’s armed forces from backing into a military cul de sac, it is the humiliated Zelensky who has had repeatedly to bow and scrape and say how thankful he is for all the assistance rendered his country by the US. It didn’t work.

US Arms aid was cutoff, leaving the former Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Dmytro Kuleba to wince and write (in the New York Times) that “It is now Europe’s war”. Europe cannot, of course, mobilise its defence industry overnight, but even so war against whom — Russia? Except, Trump followed up the Zelensky encounter by halting all US offensive cyber operations against Russia. If such incentives and his promise of trade and investment and possibly a place for Moscow in the European community induces Russia to detach itself from China, then a very grand strategy is indeed afoot to isolate China, one geared to minimising its influence and power in Eurasia and in the Indo-Pacific. This is all to India’s good — and this is the prospect the Indian government has been offered to get it to commit more forcefully to the Quad. In that situation, NATO serves no useful purpose.

But a junked Atlantic alliance giving way to a European Treaty Organisation (ETO) of the kind hinted at by Emannuel Macron of France, or a “coalition of the willing” mooted by Keir Starmer of the UK, both of which are proposals the Chancellor Merz would happily support as a counterpoint to the fading NATO. But either or both of these groupings will do what? Range against Russia backed by the US? Meanwhile, the European Union, quite literally kicked to the curb by Trump hopes that by joining India, it can add to its international weight by association. This explains the visiting EU Commission’s pleas to the Modi government to forge comprehensive links. All these parallel developments offer tremendous opportunities to New Delhi, the possibilities boggle the mind. It is that kind of inflection point.

So, why the hesitation? Because Prime Minister Narendra Modi still sees benefit in putting great store by the US. This much is evident from the to-do list he returned from Washington with, which he is bent on realising. A lot of things mentioned in it are good for India, like deregulation, opening up the agricultural and dairy sectors to competition from American exports, and clarifying land and labour laws that remain untackled and have been huge impediments to the country’s quickly replacing China as a manufacturing hub and deal with rising unemployment. Other things in it, such as increasing the purchases of high value defence hardware — depending on what’s for sale, may not meet Indian military needs. And the push to get India to buy a whole bunch of Westinghouse AP 1000 enriched uranium-fueled light water reactors is also problematic. If such power plants are to be in the private sector as commercial enterprises, with combines of Indian and foreign companies investing in power complexes, then this option needs every encouragement. With the Adani group mustering the resources to get in big in the nuclear energy business, it is a welome sign. Because this will free the government to finance the building of 700MW CANDU and breeder power stations. There’s after all an insatiable hunger in the growing Indian economy for energy, and excess of power is good and, therefore, more nuclear plants the better.

But here’s the rub. With the Modi regime intent on propelling export trade but also a more diversified exports basket not dominated by software and Information Technology-related goods and services, India could quickly find itself at odds with the US, and more fully in Trump’s tariff crosshairs. And, as he has understood after his US sojourn, Trump is so not sentimental and would as readily screw India if he thinks it has complied inadequately with his demands, as he did Canada and Mexico by raising across the board tariffs (as of last night) of 25% on their exports.

Trump has proven he is no respector of friends or of the sanctity of security alliances. But he respects power, and therefore, is reverential, subservient even, with Vladimir Putin in Russia and Xi Jinping in China, who will brook no rhetorical nonsense from him, even less hurtful actions. Beijing promised immediate retaliatory tariffs to match Trump’s additional 10% over and above the previous 25% tariff hike that kicked in as of yesterday. And Canada and Mexico were not spared, in part because Chinese companies set up factories in these neighbouring countries to avail of trade on concessional terms under the North America Free Trade Agreement. Now NAFTA too stands trashed.

If Trump all but kowtows to Moscow and Beijing, he is equally admiring of recklessly defiant leaders who can do America harm. Like Kim Jong-un of North Korea who, it may be recalled, called Trump’s bluff in 2018 of “fire and fury” by aiming his IRBMs at Guam — the large US base mid-Pacific, and then testing intercontinental range ballistic missiles just so the next time Trump acts up, he can aim them at Los Angeles! Kim’s chutzpah made Trump eat his own threats and fetched him a deferential visit from the US President who makes foreign policy as he goes along and by his impulse of the moment! The proof? Trump sacrificed a draft agreement on February 28 which was there for the taking that, in effect, gave away the entire store of Ukraine’s mineral reserves for America to extract as reimbursement for the $350 billion worth of US arms Trump claims was delivered to Kyiv over the past three years of its war with Russia, just because, well, he felt like humilating poor Zelensky.

So, it is clear what works when dealing with Trumpian America — Power. Fair enough. That’s the way international relations have always worked. What’s new is the almost gratuitous pleasure Trump takes in beating up on lesser friendly states just because he can!

India does not have the kind of power that makes Trump go weak in his knees. But India boasts of two things of unmatched strategic value — its geographic location dominating the Indian Ocean Region that the US simply cannot do without if it means seriously to take on China. And, economically just as important, its vast market. These are powerful leverages India has so far not used to get what it wants by way of advanced technology, say. New Delhi should use the Indian location and access to its market more aggressively, doling out a little access at a time in return for good behaviour and friendly US policies. Instead, Modi and his predecessors, Manmohan Singh and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, have gone on bended knees to Washington, pulled their punches, and tried desperately hard not to give offence even when American policies, such as on nuclear nonproliferation, expressly targeted India.

The next time Modi is summoned for a “working visit” by Trump, the Indian PM should ask him to come over for a visit, instead, without fanfare to sort out issues. His ministerial lackey, S Jaishankar in MEA, can speak softly and wax rhetorical about “multialignment” or whatever else he thinks fit to dilate on — it is of little account. But the Prime Minister himself when meeting Trump should be hard as nails, not nice, when making it plain that there can’t be a compartmentalised US approach to India — Washington can’t be accommodating in one area and adversarial in another. And that he has been voted to power to further India’s interests, not America’s. And India would be compelled to put the bilateral relationship on the backburner if it finds its interests or sovereignty in any way undermined or impugned.

And, in summits with Trump or any future US President, he should conduct his business in Hindi, forcing the US to use interpreters, thus affording the Indian side the leeway to back out of commitments subsequently deemed as unwise — over “language differences”. This is the secret behind the consistent success of Chinese negotiators — they always use Mandarin, even as MEA and GOI negotiating teams generally give away the store speaking English! (For example, Jaishankar surrendered the country’s sovereign right to test its nuclear weapons in order to secure the ill-advised 2005 civilian nuclear cooperation deal with the US.)

But such a hard stand is never taken by Modi (and Jaishankar). They seem happy receiving a few pats on their backs for this and that from Western leaders, who view it as an Indian negotiating weakness to ruthlessly exploit. Varied Indian interests are not cohesively advanced also because of the Indian government method of functioning in silos, which meshes with Washington’s compartmentalised policy outlook. Each ministry and department of government acts as a sovereign entity, with its own singular view of the national interest and how to pursue it! Policy coordination is rare. In his decade in office, Modi has not addressed, let alone rectified, this basic structural-procedural problem at the heart of Indian policy and decision making, which is an immense liability when it comes to dealing with foreign countries. In tackling the US, it can result, more often than not, in self-goals.

Modi should also be aware of one other pitfall of meeting formally with Trump that the Zelensky episode highlighted — never again agree to a joint public press conference that can be turned into a media tamasha and, at any moment, into an occasion for Trump to put the Indian PM on the spot (as he did the last time by announcing the offer of the F-35 aircraft) or, if he feels like it, publicly insult him, upbraid him, or make fun of him.

Unknown's avatar

About Bharat Karnad

Senior Fellow in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, he was Member of the (1st) National Security Advisory Board and the Nuclear Doctrine-drafting Group, and author, among other books of, 'Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy', 'India's Nuclear Policy' and most recently, 'Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)'. Educated at the University of California (undergrad and grad), he was Visiting Scholar at Princeton University, University of Pennsylvania, the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC.
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42 Responses to The Beatdown of Zelensky: Hard Lessons for Modi & India

  1. Shaurya's avatar Shaurya says:

    Bharat: Repeating something I juxtaposed to some friends.

    This is an attempt at an Entente with Russia. AKA Nixon style.

    This will eventually lead to a radical restructuring of NATO as we know it, to reduce /refocus US Mil spend in the areas of US largest threats.

    You are right as usual on the opportunities these potential realignments expose for India but will India seize them is the question.

  2. Amit's avatar Amit says:

    Professor, couldn’t agree more. Let’s see how India negotiates.

    • Aditya Mishra's avatar aditya mishra says:

      @Amit

      Do you have hopes from Jaishankar??

      • Amit's avatar Amit says:

        I know Jaishankar handled the Russian oil negotiation well. But its not just Jaishankar, this is going to be driven by Mr. Modi and will involve economics, security/defence and diplomacy. More than Mr. Jaishankar, I want to see how Rajnath Singh handles security and defence. Or will he even do anything about it and leave it to others!

  3. Aditya Mishra's avatar aditya mishra says:

    @BharatKarnad

    After this whole public drama India should say this to the United States “Thank you for your F-35 offer but you can keep it with yourself” A big no to F35.

    And not just military alliances like NATO and defending Europe these claims of giving nuclear umbrella to Japan and South Korea are also a big hoax no American president or Defense secretary would want to see Washington and New York get Vaporized just to save or retaliate on the behalf of Tokyo or Seoul.

    Sir if you could clear a doubt after this whole insult of Zelensky and Ukrainians there were discussions that Ukraine should not have given up it’s nuclear Arsenal and then their are counter Arguements that Ukraine never had an nuclear arsenal they might have some missiles or warheads but the launch codes the command and control were in Moscow’s is it true?

    Poor Ukrainians Russians took over their land and Americans will take their minerals and the fate of this country in still uncertain another live example why thermonuclear weapons are the decisive weapons.

    Would like to know your thoughts on the command and control of the Ukrainian weapons?

  4. Deepak's avatar Deepak says:

    Dear Sir, there is a sharp divide between republicans post trump and democrats.If republicans loose power next time then most of Trump policies would be reversed by democrats. We have seen how democrats created east Pakistan out of Bangladesh, tried to destabilize Modi government, targeted Adani and other Indian businesses.

    Us flip flop’s have devastated all allies except Israel. What is your opinion on India working on long term plan to strengthen BRICS by moving towards a plan for de dollarization instead of wasting time on Trump whose validity expires after 4 years and not sure what is the US policy after his exit from the office.

  5. Bharat kumar's avatar Bharat kumar says:

    you were always against usa and other foreign reactors and supported indigenous one to be built here . Why the support for the foreign one.

    • If n-reactors are imported by private sector, the companies have to go to the market to get financing or seek outside investors — it is no skin off the Indian taxpayer’s back and, as I said, it will free up the funds for power stations with indigenous CANDU and breeder reactors. Hope you see the difference.

  6. Chattora Chamaar's avatar Chattora Chamaar says:

    Mr. Karnad in almost all your writings you criticize Jaishankar too much without ever mentioning the current NSA of India. He happens to be the third most powerful man in the country after Modi and Shah.

    Pakistan and China both are being completely handled by Doval and he has totally messed up both. Jaishankar’s domain is Europe and US, there also Doval interfered. Do you think Nijjar’s killing in Canada and Pannun’s attempted assassination in US went ahead without Doval’s permission?

    I will be really surprised if you publish this without editing.

    • Chattora@ — If you peruse my posts on the Pannun-Nijjar issues, you will find that Doval, I said, was the reason GOI was in a pickle. No one else got anywhere near saying this. Focus on Jaishankar precisely because he handles the America-West policy portfolio that PM Modi has prioritised.

  7. Amit's avatar Amit says:

    Professor, with the U.S. Russian detente, India would have more opportunities to negotiate with the EU. This should definitely strengthen India’s hand even with the U.S. on defence equipment. Overall, I would say these are positive developments for India. China could be the big loser!

  8. Email from Vice Admiral Sushil Nair, former FOCINC, Southern Naval Command

    Wed, 5 Mar at 7:50 am

    A comprehensive view. Thanks.

    I would not assign Trump with intelligent strategic thinking. A typucal bully Trump will thump the weaker Zelensky, put Europe in a quandry, this giving Putin a hope for “victory”, That he thinks will be his leverage to stop the war and a shot at the Nobel Peace price. Trump ego boost process.

    Regards

  9. Email from Dr V Siddhartha, former scientific adviser to GOI

    V Siddhartha

    Tue, 4 Mar at 8:28 pm

    …. France will see this Starmer jump-in to get back into a Europe co-redesigned by her and Germany —  a “coalition of the wooly”,  and an absolute no-no for France.

     Only if the RSS makes it clear to Modi-Jai will India “… be compelled to put the bilateral relationship on the backburner if it finds its interests or sovereignty in any way undermined or impugned.”

    But that will be undermined and sabotaged by Trump’s Fifth Column in India: The Raja Mohan ideated NRI — Non-Responsible Indian — and PIO whose parents/ siblings/Stanford-Ivy student-place seekers populate the bureaucracy.

    VS

  10. ashman's avatar ashman says:

    Dear Prof. – Do you *really* think of all the people/leaders/idiots of the world, this specific one called *Putin* is so naive as to fall for this classical al-taqiyya fraud of u.s.a. = union of saoodi amrika?

    Also *please* do post a (semi) hindi translation (of your own chosen words) on this blog to ensure its reach to some specific glorified fools of :-

    i a s = imperial anglo-saxon serfs
    i p s = imperial psycho-path serfs
    i f s = imperial fairy-tales serfs
    i r s = imperial rouge-raids serfs

    • Vikram Singh's avatar Vikram Singh says:

      Ashman@ — You seem to be a sub-literate “glorified fool” yourself. Visit a psychiatrist and get cured before imparting outpourings from your diseased brain. IAS, IPS, etc. represent the backbone of the country, keeping the country stable and unified against the many internal/external forces attempting to break it apart.

      • Aditya Mishra's avatar aditya mishra says:

        Maybe some IAS and IPS like K Subrahmanyam, KPS Gill and Ajit Doval but not all, majority of them will always remain babus

  11. Ranveer's avatar Ranveer says:

    Our primary aim should be to grow our muscles, and the biggest obstacle to it is our democracy. We haven’t adopted the Chinese system partly because of gyno-gerontocracy’s bed-wetting at any suggestion of acquiring power, and partly because of the American Empire’s tentacles. Anything that diminishes American power, therefore, is in our interest. China, beaking out of the island chains, and challenging American Empire helps us in the long-term, as it propels non-democratic power on the world stage – helping free ourselves from democratic disaster that we have tangled ourselves into. BJP has two choices, either continue the current system until we’re taken over by another power, or, change the paradigm.

  12. Dr. Jhatkaa's avatar Dr. Jhatkaa says:

    An interesting development;

    https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/myanmar-rebel-groups-sign-merger-pact-in-mizoram-in-cm-lalduhoma-presence-aizawl-2689682-2025-03-06#?utm_source=Story_hp&utm_medium=Story&utm_campaign=home_Story

    So now it’s official that the Indian government would be supporting the rebels in Myanmar in their fight against the Myanmar Army establishment.

  13. Aditya Mishra's avatar aditya mishra says:

    @BharatKarnad

    Recently in shocking accusations a MEA whistleblower has accused Jaishankar of corruption and not being loyal to the country and Modi. He has also said that Jaishankar’s team is hiding a sexual abuse against a Brazilian women committed by a government official in Sao Paulo consulate

    https://vygrnews.com/india-news/ex-mea-officer-turns-whistleblower—alleges-jaishankar-as-corrupt–claims-sexual-abuse-cover-up

  14. Mr. A's avatar foodometry says:

    Donald Trump is acting like a modern day Commodore Perry. Commodore Perry forced open the markets of Japan for trade with the United States by shoving his steam-powered frigates into the Edo bay and pointing its muzzle-loading cannons right at the Japs. The Japanese , intimidated by this show of strength right away opened up their markets to American goods. Thus setting the stage for Japan’s “Meiji Era Restoration” and its industrialization. Hope something similar happens in India , where our License Raj Era – freeloader Businesses in Automotive , Agricultural , Diary ,etc get a reality check by American business and thus have to compete in a free and fair environment giving the average Indian consumer more value for the same price. America is one of the biggest manufacturer of industrial machinery like Machine tools,Industrial robots , automation systems, Textile machinery , etc and by making the import duty nada on these , will help our MSME and SME and hence furthering Indian manufacturing. With Chinese economy in doll-drums with its era of economic growth induced by cheap/lower end technology given by the western world over , India should take over from China as the “factory of the world”. Trump’s election has been a blessing in disguise .

  15. Rajeev Mathur's avatar Rajeev Mathur says:

    And, in summits with Trump or any future US President, he should conduct his business in Hindi, forcing the US to use interpreters, thus affording the Indian side the leeway to back out of commitments subsequently deemed as unwise — over “language differences”.

    Does Modi even want to Hindify India? how many colleges and research centers are being built to teach STEM in Hindi? How many people in GOI are capable of high-level Hindi required to conduct official business? It’s been ten years, and yet all the government has to show for is a bunch of slogans.

  16. RRB's avatar RRB says:

    Does Mr Modi possess any intellectual depth to process what Mr Karnad has written? The same question equally applies to Mr Jai Shanker, a yes man, who so far has done one job splendidly which is to aggrandize his boss.
    The joint press session where both Mr Trump and Mr Modi were seated, the latter’s body language was as if he had just come out of a woodshed, not public where Zelensky was taken to but a private behind the door woodshed.

  17. Mr. A's avatar foodometry says:

    @BharatKarnad

    Dr Karnad , what are your thoughts on having a security partnership/ alliance between USA, India and Russia .

    A partnership between these three countries would be insane.This partnership could be analysed through multiple lens :- A Major Energy producer(Russia) + A Major Technology Power (USA) + A major producer of services (and hopefully) manufactured goods(India) or one could looks at it like this A major landpower( in Russia) , A Major Maritime power (in USA) and A “Janus”-like land + maritime power which can easily switch between them as the situation (in India).

    All of them geared towards strategically stymying China and usher in peace in the “Indo-Eurasian Strategic Complex” geographical region which combines the Eurasian land mass with the Indo-Pacific archipelago-oceanic continuum. This region interestingly also encompasses Mackinder’s Hearland in the form of Eurasia and Spykman’s Rimland in the form of the Indo Pacific region. Russia , India and USA could be the three poles located at extreme ends of this strategic complex , ensuring peace and stability in it. On top of that , all of these three countries face territorial threats from China.

    Revisionist China wants to take back the Russian Far East Territories , which it has seen as an illegally occupied territory, taken during its “100 years of humiliation” as part of the 1858 Treaty of Aigun . In the diametrically opposite direction , Chinese want to fulfil Chairman Mao’s unfilled “Palm and five fingers strategy” which involved occupying Tibet(the palm) and then use it as a staging ground to take over the five territories(five fingers) which lied on Tibet’s periphery – Ladakh, Nepal , Sikkim , Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh. Last but not the least , inspired by the actions of Admiral Admiral Zheng He of the Ming dynasty, Chinese seeks to dominate all the three island chains which contains American bases in Guam and Hawaii ,and ultimately dominate the waters of American West Coast. With these revisionist territorial claims , it is a no brainer for these countries to come together and box the Chinese in.

    Dr Karnad , Love to have you thoughts on this kind of RUSIND partnership.

    • To be honest, India does not figure in Trump’s design for a condominium with Putin. We’ll be the proverbial haddi in their kebab! So India-US-Russia is a nonstarter.

      • Mr. A's avatar foodometry says:

        Understood , Dr Karnad

      • Amit's avatar Amit says:

        Also, China will not keep quiet in such a scenario. It will make major overtures to both Russia and India to break such an alliance. Therefore, things will be more fluid, more transactional, and more unpredictable. This is what multi polarity typically leads to.

  18. Aditya Mishra's avatar aditya mishra says:

    @BharatKarnad

    professor you have referred to K. Subrahmanyam as your old friend and colleague you knew him well . Jaishankar in one of ANI podcast(ANI is biased to Modi government) said that Mr Subrahmanyam was the first secretary to be removed by Indira Gandhi during her second tenure

    Do you know the reason why he was dismissed from the post and the cabinet like he was hawkish Considered a proponent of Realpolitik but what circumstances led to his dismissal?

    • K Subrahmanyam, a very principled IAS officer — one of the best, was punished by the Indira Gandhi government because as Home Secretary, Tamil Nadu, he diluted the application of Central Govt directives during the 21-month Emergency regime, 1975-77, when Constitutional and civil rights were suspended, and the political opposition and media were harrassed and intimidated.

  19. Gagandeep's avatar Gagandeep says:

    What a superbly written advisory to Modi Professor Karnad. I read it many times over and relished it every time more than the previous one. If only somebody would have provided Modi an equally genius translation of it in Hindi. Let’s hope that he grows spine and doesn’t ‘bend it like Beckham’ before Trumpian America.

    One more thing I would add is that with America-Russia detente the threat of CAATSA sanctions on future Russia-India defence deals may progressively diminish and leave India free to exploit cash-strapped Russian economy for greater technology transfers.

    Already we are seeing the India-Russia collaboration fabricate a wondrously crafted weapon in the form of ‘Gandive’ missile. More such success stories may fructify not just in defence but other fields also if Modi avoids strategic mis-steps in the coming months that over-reliance on Jai Shankar may occasionally induce him to take.

    For example, Trump wants zero percent duty on Tesla cars in India. India is mulling a duty of 15-20 percent which means the lowest Tesla model will cost 35 to 40 lakh in India. The latter course does not forebode windfall in sales for Musk in India but it will protect local manufacturers like Mahindra.

    If Trump and Musk are insistent on zero percent duty Modi’s team should negotiate sourcing and manufacturing of parts locally only instead of just starting the assembly lines here. Experts might provide better solutions but I mean to say Modi must stand his ground and negotiate from a position of strength as America needs India more than the other way round.

  20. Amit's avatar Amit says:

    Professor,

    Looks like the Trump administration has started to harangue India more and more now…

    https://theprint.in/diplomacy/us-demands-india-stop-purchase-of-russian-weapons-lower-tariffs-prevent-de-dollarisation/2538959/

    But it feels different this time. It sounds like a lot of bluster and frankly on the defence equipment issue, India will likely show him the finger. One can’t prevent supplies of top defence equipment on the one hand and demand stopping sourcing from Russia on the other.

    On the de dollarisation issue too, it seems like a lot of bluster as India has clearly stated that it does not favour it. But India has also stated that it will continue the ‘globalisation’ of the rupee. Don’t think Trump can do anything to prevent that.

    On trade, there could be a deal. But it is unlikely Trump can tariff his way with every major country on the planet. His backtracking on tariffs on Mexico and Canada indicate the limits of this threat.

    So let’s see what actually plays out. It’s still early days.

  21. Anit's avatar Anit says:

    Professor,

    The way the Trump administration has gone about its business, it seems like they are emulating China’s wolf warrior approach. And this is likely to fail. They have gone ballistic with Europe, BRICS, and LATAM. Don’t think this is smart.

    But India has its own issues. The biggest being self reliance in defence and it’s not doing enough. Looks like even Russia is trying to sabotage the Kaveri program. No flying test bed for a year! Why India does not do enough to develop its own engine is baffling. Bureaucratic sabotage is what comes to mind!

    Looks like the only thing that propels India in the right direction is a crisis. Maybe China or the U.S. must do something that forces India’s hand. Otherwise, it’s chalta hai as usual!

  22. Aditya Mishra's avatar aditya mishra says:

    @BharatKarnad

    professor after seeing the recent hostage crisis where some Baloch rebels hijacked an entire train full of army personnel and civilians now i get it why you refer to Pakistan as a buffer state between us and the Islamic extremist virus.

    i agree with your thought partition is a good thing that happened with us that it is a buffer but then why not help and support the insurgencies inside so that this punny nation can be divided into further 1-2 new countries and territories

    i would like to know your opinion?

    • Who is to say this fractionation tool won’t be turned againt India?

    • Chattoraa Chamaar's avatar Chattoraa Chamaar says:

      @Mishra- You are being so naive. It’s an open knowledge that Indian establishment supports Balochistan separatists. Go and ask Indian James Bond. He will gladly tell you the details.

    • Amit's avatar Amit says:

      Professor,

      The Afghan Taliban has developed good relations with India contrary to what was said when they took power and the expected rise of terrorism in Kashmir. Baluchistan will separate from Pakistan and will likely have good relations with India. This fear of taking action that breaks up Pakistan is old thinking. Yes there are risks, but it’s better than making ‘peace’ with Pakistan.

    • Itanium's avatar Itanium says:

      @aditya.mishra

      This is the definition of buffer state.

      “a small neutral country situated between two larger hostile countries and serving to prevent the outbreak of regional conflict”

      Is Pakistan a “small neutral country” or a collection of pathological anti India elements that is nuclear armed?

      Partition was a big mistake where historically and intimately connected left and right organs of India being amputated out due to 1. virulence of secessionists on one hand and 2. whimsical play of Colonialist masters on the other hand.

  23. futuristically365ae7e3c0's avatar futuristically365ae7e3c0 says:

    https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2025/

    @BharatKarnad

    Professor according to this latest upto date report on chinese nuclear forces they are preparing up for some 1000 weapons levels warheaded forces by 2030-2032 and majority of them are thermonuclears starting from 450kt to 3.3 Megaton and multi Megatons on the DF-5B

    this arsenal is raising alarm bells in Washington but not in delhi as of now

    how much time will it require us too reach upto at least 400-500 weapons force considering from our current 185 level

    you had suggested 425 warheads force way back in 2002 in nuclear weapons and Indian security

    sir the problem is this minimum credible detterence and test ban that we have self imposed on ourselves we lack in yield and numbers both and we lack by a huge margin I mean even with the 20 kiloton and 40 kiloton fission boosted firecrackers we could have convinced ourselves that we atleast have them in abundance for future contingencies but we lack that too

    Would like to know your opinion on our future nuclear forces and time required for 400-500 weapons ?

    • In 2002, in the first edition, suggested 475 when China arsenal was 500 — but if you read that chapter — the principle for force augmentation I had articulated was ONLY 25 nuclear weapons less than the Chinese strength. If it is 1,000, India’s should be at 975. For reasons why, look up the case I made.

      • Itanium's avatar Itanium says:

        975 vs 1000 it’s honestly one and the same.

        what you are suggesting is to match China kiloton for kiloton, megaton for megaton and warhead for warhead, which I agree with.

      • futuristically365ae7e3c0's avatar futuristically365ae7e3c0 says:

        @BharatKarnad

        sir i agre with your thesis that we need more warheads specialy wrt china but the argument that the pacifist lobby here in india builds that during cold war france and Uk with less then 500 weapons each were able to detter Soviet Union with 25000 weapons at peak

        the ratio as of now between india and china is still not bad 600/180

        Do you buy their argument would love to know your response.

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