[Adani and the PM]
It is said of highly professional intelligence agencies that what they consistently do well is focus on the leaders of countries their government deals with, to try and find some weakness, some sore spot, a well hidden secret in the present or from the past, perhaps, marital discord, or sexual peccadilloes, or evidence of sexual deviance, of a lover squirrelled away in some safe house somewhere, or a woman scorned who can be turned to provide the dirty on the leader, something, anything, that the leader would rather keep away from the public eye, and to use this or that piece of information to get that leader of that government of that country to do as he is told, to take this decision, make that policy, announce such and such friendly step, or sign a specific deal. Information is a foreign state’s leverage and it is the stuff of external intelligence gathering.
The biggest intelligence coup of recent years is Putin’s KGB — the Russian Federal Security Service reportedly videographing, among other things, Trump during one of his business tours, pre-presidency, to Russia enjoying the company of blondes and a “golden shower”. Do you wonder why, where Moscow is concerned, Trump is a mewing pussycat?
Indian leaders have always had their weaknesses. There were obvious giveaways. Nehru had this thing for Edwina Mountbatten, and Whitehall used it without compunction to scuplt many of India’s policies during the Interim government when Lord Mountbatten was Viceroy and, a short time later, as the first Governor General of free India got Nehru to do many things London asked for. It is as if nothing had changed.
Prime Minister Morarji Desai’s Defence Minister Jagjivan Ram’s openness in the mid-1970s to baksheesh — reportedly conveyed by MI6 via Whitehall to British Aerospace led, it is said, to the purchase of the Jaguar low level strike aircraft — the first of the numerous billion dollar defence deals that have followed, and are better known for the inevitable tales of corruption, “commissions” and payment in kind — “scholarships” and jobs in foreign companies for the progeny of babus and politicians in the decision loop — the preferred mode to “grease palms” these days, attached to the deals than for the hardware they procured.
Then again, Central Intelligence Agency and the Indian government have the goods, for instance, on a certain “Raoul Castro” relating to some travel activity out of Latin America and into Boston involving contraband.
And, it did not take long for the CIA to home in on Gautam Adani — Narendra Modi’s financial backer, and his Adani Group as possible pressure points. Indeed, there was enough information conveyed by many Western governments (such as the Australian) to Washington about Adani sitting in on meetings their PMs had with a visiting Modi, and how contracts involving the Adani Group fructified. And then Adani made the serious error of falling afoul of the so-called “sunshine laws” prohibiting corrupt practices by firms conducting business in, or seeking investments from, the American marketplace. Not sure how agnostically these laws are applied, but they seem more like legal flypaper to catch errant foreign businessmen. But Washington and CIA believe they have the hook to dangle Modi on, or at least to get the Indian PM to dance to their music. Of course, nothing will come of it, and Gautam Adani is free to travel anywhere he wishes to go as long as he never steps on American soil. A little like the travel ban imposed on Modi for the alleged human rights abuses by his government in Gujarat, after the Godhra train burning in February 2002. May be Adani should hereafter approach the “Sheikhs of Araby” — much safer bet, for investment.
But Adani is not the usual sort of prime ministerial crony. He may have increased his wealth manifold no doubt. But unlike almost everyother intimate of the PM in times past — think of “Captain” Sharma and the Italian fixer for Snamprogetti in India, Ottavio Quattrocchi, fluttering around Rajiv Gandhi in the 1980s, who were in it only to pad their secret Swiss or Cayman Island bank accounts, Adani is alone in furthering India’s strategic reach, clout and presence globally. His control of ports on the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) route — the infrastructure counterpart and competitor to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, is critical to India’s geopolitics. Adani has equity in three Greek ports (Kavala, Volos, and Alexandrapouli) as the trade gateway to Europe, and of the ports in Haifa, Israel, Colombo, Sri Lanka, and in Daresalam, Tanzania, and his ownership in Western Autsralia of coal and other extractive industries, all of which afford India the kind of strategic leverage New Delhi could not have imagined a few years ago. He is an agile proxy for doing things the Indian government is no position to do.
But, unless everyone has misjudged him, Modi, like Donald Trump, is loyal to his minions but only upto a point. Meaning, he is not going to go down with the Adani ship, should it begin taking water. So Adani may not be quite the instrument to armtwist the Indian prime minister that foreign agencies believe he is. But this episode, following so quickly on the Nijjar killing incident in Canada that was deliberately blown up into a major diplomatic hungama, and finally the brouhaha over the Pannun affair, with the US government virtually insisting that, at a minimum, the decision to bump off the Khalistani terrorist be formally attributed to the NSA, Ajit Doval, and he be hauled up legally for it. That didn’t work. But it should alert Modi to the fact that the US and Western bloc countries, generally, are desperate to secure something to manipulate Modi with, maybe because Washington feels he is growing too big for his boots.
In the Nijjar, Pannun and Adani episodes Washington’s role was significant, and far from benign. Where interstate relations are concerned, Modi needs reminding that America is no one’s friend, and the incoming US President Trump is no one’s buddy. Because as the former German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, observed in her recently published memoirs (as reported by the New York Times) that Trump “believed that all countries were in competition with each other, in which the success of one was the failure of the other” and rejected the proposition “that the prosperity of all could be increased through cooperation.”
Trump, in other words, is a zero sum gamer, and Modi can expect no give whatsoever from him in his second term. It is something the Indian PM needs to bear in mind to prevent his policies from straying too far from genuine strategic autonomy, and listing too much America-wards.
Security Wise 
@BharatKarnad
Another eye-opening article professor. Is there any book of yours where you have discussed in detail about the mindset, weaknesses of indian leaders,dipolmats?
I thought all my books and writings did!
Professor,
That the CIA and other deep state agencies are behind Adani to hurt India is pretty clear to people who follow geopolitics and the role of the deep state in it. So couldn’t agree more on how the U.S. is going after Adani to hurt India and Modi. However, one thing that has changed about India is that it is now a much bigger economy and has some muscle of its own. The U.S. has played dirty in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Manipur, and Nepal. India has hit back on Nijjar and Pannun. I see more hit backs if these covert attacks on India continue.
However, it is for this reason also that I support Trump, who has the promise of chastising the deep state. It is almost certain that there will be a cleaning house of the CIA, FBI, State Department and the Pentagon. That could have some impact on the insidious games the U.S. is playing on India. But we don’t know for sure. It is for this reason, India must keep the door open with Russia and China, even though China is a threat. However, if the U.S. behaves the same way as it has recently, it will be a very fluid global state of affairs. A truly multi polar world – which is always more unstable than a less polar world.
America is no one’s friend, and the incoming US President Trump is no one’s buddy. Because as the former German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, observed in her recently published memoirs (as reported by the New York Times) that Trump “believed that all countries were in competition with each other, in which the success of one was the failure of the other” and rejected the proposition “that the prosperity of all could be increased through cooperation.”: Prof Bharat Karnad
@BharatKarnad Is the Putin’s FSB information about Trump for real?
Ganesh@ — Who knows! But there must be something there….
If the Yankees decide to leak India’s Dirty Secrets, then why should India hold back. India should publicly call for investigation in Homi Bhabha’s Death(and the 100 innocent Indian who were killed in that aircraft bombing).We should start declassifying information that would be extremely damaging to America’s prestige and world standing . R & AW needs to start honeytrapping American, Chinese and European Leaders (like the Chinese do).
If the Yankees want to start targeting Indian businessman, then India should start legal proceedings against American Business for Tax Evasions , Violation of Labour Laws , Monopolistic Behaviour ,etc.All of which Americans carry out brazenly ,with the GOI being fully aware.Just like we taught Meta a lesson by imposing a 200cr+ penalty( for possibly leaking the Whatsapp chat of Pannum Affair to US agencies ).
this is all mentioned in professor books but the problem is we are risk averse. If GOI had already showed some courage the Yankees would not had the courage to do all this
Ultimately it is the Indian politicians and passive mindset to blame for
@BharatKarnad
professor a little bit out of context but please regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war a scenario has came in my mind multiple times.
let us assume hypothetically that Putin looses his cool and crosses the nuclear threshold attacks London, berlin, Warsaw and Paris with thermonuclear weapons then will the united states retaliate by nuclear bombing Moscow or St Petersburg.
Knowing that Russian counterstrike will also come will they risk New York, LA and Washington for the above European capitals.
Theoretically they say yes but in real war what can de do. If you could give me an answer?
Highly unlikely. Which American leader wants to see Washington vaporise?
as expected then these claims of giving nuclear umbrella are fraud
that attack on Japan will be considered attack on USA
You have hit the nail on its head despite the long and rambling opening paragraph. For the American ruling dispensation there is only one exception to this rule and that is the state of Israel. There are many reasons for this but the primary reason begins with an M and ends in a Y.
You have hit the nail on its head despite the long and rambling opening paragraph. For the American ruling dispensation there is only one exception to this rule and that is the state of Israel. There are many reasons for this but the primary reason begins with an M and ends in a Y.
rom Air Marshal Harish Masand (Retd)
Mon, 25 Nov at 10:53 am
On the nail, Bharat. Thanks
Harish
I shudder to think what they have on Rahul Gandhi.
But then, if Indian Intel agencies have any sense, they too should have enough material on this guy. His frequent vacations in faraway lands and dallyings with mysterious characters ought to be seen as a grave national security threat.
Even so-called right wing media is unusually silent about this.
@BharatKarnad
Professor as per multiple reports the Indian navy today tested K4 missile(3500-4000km) from INS Arighaat no photos halve been released and no official confirmation from MOD/DRDO yet they only released a missile test notice/warning. It seems as if they do not want to publicize it much.
but if this is true than this is a good news because with this k4 would by the second operational missile to reach deep inside China what’s you take on this development please do write a blog regarding this new type of missile.
People, organizations and countries can be controlled by financial, informational, reputational and ideological levers. western intelligence agencies mostly operate overtly under the cloak of narratives; their power is applied by wrapping itself around the layers of narrative— democracy, human rights etc. Much of the American penetration of India is through idealogical means: Indian english-speaking-illiterates (ESI) being fed American idealogical diet, and then used to achieve American Empire’s goals.
Modi&co haven’t even begun to comprehend the problem, let alone solve it; and, as long as we remain democratic we will never be able to solve it. Chinese elites, on the other hand, did solve it; they, unlike India, did establish digital, financial, military, linguistic and political sovereignty. By constrast, our political class and ESIs are bred to be servile, docile, brown-noser-strivers; and, therefore, incapable of mustering the will, intelligence and shrewdness needed to rule in the jungle of geopolitics .
Does BJP have the foresight to liberate itself from democratic chains imposed on us to permanently retard our progress; does it have the shrewdness to raise the red banner and follow in the footsteps of Deng Xiaoping. Does it even understand what Deng’s communism is? Does it understand the skill with which Deng Xiaoping dragged the backward China into modernity, and established the han dominion throughout China? ( Hint: He did not seek votes or approval of masses. Masses were/are/and will remain irrelevant.) His achievements are comparable to Lycurgus, Cyrus, Alexander, Caesar, Peter l and Napoleon; as someone who broke through the moribund regime and created new order. And yet, there is no understanding within BJP of this, instead they are following America’s footsteps; and as a result, going down deeper into civilizational irrelevancy.
Nileshko@ — BJP doesn’t even understand what Hinduness(Hindutva) is, to expect them to understand other things is bit of a stretch. Hinduness, a progressive movement, emerged to stop the islamization of Hindustan, as well as to stop the Abrahamization of Hinduism—which had been going on for so long that Hindus started thinking that their “religion” is similar to Abrahamic religions. Hinduness was a reminder that, unlike backward Abrahamics, theirs was a open and progressive “religion”. Hence, the emphasis on the Nasadiya Sukta. Hinduness, in short, is nietzschean and Hellenistic, and not Abrahamic. Unfortunately, BJP and its leaders, and Indian voters have shown themselves to be incapable of grasping that.
Siddharth S@ — As a fellow nietzschean have you read ‘Selective Breeding and the Birth of Philosophy’ by Costin Alamariu; and ‘Bronze Age Mindset’ by the same author.
Nileshko@ — What you are talking about is capacity building, or, in other words, CIA/State dept. creation of assets. Mike Benz is the go to guy to understand how that sausage is created. How American Empire a) penetrates; b) consolidates; c) controls; and then d) shapes its subject nations. Entertainment, media, academia, economy and digital are the primary elements of 21st century neo-colonialism. If you want to understand more watch Mike Benz’s interview on Joe Rogan’s podcast or subscribe to his twitter.
@BharatKarnad
professor I have always felt that regime change is one the biggest and most effective weapons of United States against a country they don’t like or a country that does not accepts them as overlords
specially after seeing what happened in Syria with basar al assad what happened with Ashraf ghani, Sheikh hasina, imran khan all of them were deposed by US .
Now I know india is not a run over country we have strong paramilitaries and intelligence agencies but can the United States do something like that in india too
i mean this government or maybe in future a pro india government that keeps indian interest as it’s main priority can it be removed by United States.On paper mp no but what is the reality.
As always would love to know your opinion.
Futuristically@ — I have been concerned over the years with Washington thinktanks Brookings (now known by another name), Aspen Institute and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace settig up Delhi chapters with Indian businessmen funding them! See my last book (Staggering Forward, or for an April 28, 2016, magazine piece see https://openthemagazine.com/voices/indias-foreign-policy-the-foreign-hand/#google_vignette, republished on this Blog, https://bharatkarnad.com/2016/04/29/indias-foreign-policy-the-foreign-hand-has-india-outsourced-foreign-policy-to-american-think-tanks/. Senior retired diplomats and civil servants grace the staffs of these thinktanks, whose outreach activities and “research” keep pounding on a foreign and military policy line meshing, naturally, with the US interest. Worse, as I have pointed out, over 90+% of all IFS officers have their progeny in the US and/or working in Western companies in the West. This proportion may hold for the senior IAS as well. All this is part of a slate of payoffs is in kind — “scholarships” to even Ivy League Universities, Green cards, jobs, etc, safer than the previously popular schemes of secret offshore bank accounts. Have called this entire caboodle a very active “Fifth Column” beavering away in the Establishment to skew Indian policies away from serving the national interest, and all this is done in a very sophisticated manner and as part of the policy-making process. This is the real danger.
Professor, looks like India may have its own task to clean its deep state which is sold to the American deep state. The way Indian defense procurement and indigenization has proceeded so far, it seems highly likely that this is what’s going on. Indian babus under the American Deep State thumb!
Professor you mentioned Adani having equity in 3 Greek ports, but I could not find any related news or articles for that.
The articles available are all from early 2023, where they are alleging that Adani is eyeing Greek ports (courtesy of Greek Media) for expansion in Europe. Another article from Sputnik a few months down the line denies the claim. So, was this a mistake on your part or I’ve missed something?
Furthermore, I checked the current shareholding structure of the three ports. The port of Kavala and Alexandroupolis are fully Government owned [Alexandroupolis port privatisation called off]. There were plans to privatize them, but later called off because of geopolitical considerations. As for port of Volos, it is 67% owned by Port of Thessaloniki (ThPA S.A.) [Port of Thessaloniki acquires Volos Port Authority].
Though the shareholding structures of ThPA S.A.’s parent company (SEGT) and their parent companies is quite interesting with both Russian and Chinese influence.
Your Thoughts?
Adani is very into these Greek ports — and as national champion GOI should facilitate this.
@BharatKarnad
Sir could you please write a blog regarding K4 SLBM missile test that happened yesterday from INS Arighaat?
@BharatKarnad Can you please give your learned view on this latest post by the US President-Elect Donald Trump https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1863009545858998512?
The usual Trump bombast. Because BRICS includes five of the largest economies outside the US. Besides, he talks of a “BRICS currency”. There’s no move in that direction. What GOI has talked of is popularising, where possible, trade in Indian rupee where Indian transactions are concerned. Like the new Rupee-Rouble trade arrangement under negotiation.
Bharatji,
If Putin does indeed gets to keep the chunk of Ukraine he has conquered , then what will Xi do ?
It will become extremely difficult for Xi and Chinese communist party to control itself. Trump came to power last time in 2016 and launched trade war on china. In return China gave the world gift of Coronavirus in dec 2019. What china might do this time ?
If Trump does indeed launched a severe trade war with China and goes onto normalize relations with North Korea and Putin gets to keep his piece of cake in Ukraine and eat it also. Add to this the fact that even without Trump, Chinese economy in a slump, with a fully blown out trade war with USA, things will become too hot for Chinese Communist Regime.
So now what are the options for china to retaliate. Chinese regime can orchestrate a global economic meltdown somewhere near 2027/28. This might be the first global economic crisis without its hq in USA. A great achievement for China.
The 2nd option for China might be to give wannabe warriors of RSS/Modi/Hindutva type a chance to prove themselves in a real fight. I think China does not have the military capability to invade and take Taiwan, India is their safest bet.
Sir, do you think there might be a global economic crisis in 2027 ?
Should common folk like me prepare for it ?
Thank You
Gab@ — Xi will be in testing mode with Trump for a year or so to se if compromise possible. So there could be an econ downturn by 2027. Elsewhere, your take that “ndia is their safest bet” is about right.
Professor, this view that China will attack India because it can’t do so in Taiwan is nonsense. It makes no strategic sense for China to attack India. The chances of stalemate are high and it does not gain Taiwan by doing it, which is its top strategic priority.
Another Indian analyst, Praveen Sawhney, had predicted in his book that China would attack India by 2023 again. The Congress party and Pappuji were all over it and here were headlines in the Indian media. Nothing happened. While one cannot rule out crackpots in China, such a war between India and China is quite unlikely.
Anit@ — the issue was China choosing the “safer bet”. The fact is Xi-PLA will choose to assert itself with India, Vietnam, or in Taiwan. The question is which state will face the brunt.
The safer bet is Philipines in the South China Sea, Professor. If anyone thinks taking on India is the safer bet for China, they must be hallucinating.
@BharatKarnad
professor do you see these threats of high Tariffs on India and China by trump as credible
trump has history of saying such nonsense repeatedly. Russians also bluntly replied to trump that if he imposes such tariffs would make life miserable for Americans first and then would damage India, China or Russia. I mean they too know that India also exports a lot of pharmaceutical medicines and life saving drugs.
What’s your take on this?
There will be lots of roll-on effects for a lot of countries, including the US, of Trump’s raising tariffs. Yes, America relies on Indian companies to supply generic drugs. But, India, in turn, depends on China for the base chemicals needed for the Indian pharma industry, etc….
@BharatKarnad
Professor my heart cries and it is very depressing to know that what happened to HF 24 Marut how Indian Airforce killed it’s finest technological superior plane of that time. If the airforce had build on that plane researched more without any doubt india would today be having a operational 5th generation aircraft. Is this story and unfortunate fate of Marut mentioned in your books if yes then which one?
Aditya@ — Almost all my books, especially Why India Is Not a Great Power (Yet), and Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition
Sir recently the naval chief said that china is arming pakistan with warships and it’s a matter of concern
what should the GOI do start arming vietnam and philippines
Stanislaw Andreski — a Polish sociologist who settled in Britain. He called India “a land of subjugations” in his book.
The book being ,”Military Organisation and Society”.
Hey Prof I dont see anyone espousing real politik in any Indian print media. Is there anyone listening to you or is south block full of idealists with big hearts ( read pockets).
@BharatKarnad
professor i was listening to a former pakistani diplomat to india abdul basit he said that india would not fight a nuclear war with pakistan due to the very simple reason that india’s economy is booming it is rapidly increasing why would the indians risk their most developed cities and high economy growth.
can the same be said about china why would the chinese who are expected to surpass united states in future in economic terms risk shanghai or beijing i mean even with the firecrackers and fission boosted devices our agni’s and k’s can do a significant amount of damage and reduce chinese economy to nothing.
what are your views on this?
Basit is right, and that’s what I said in my book ‘Staggering Forward’ to argue vis a vis China for forward deployed SRBMs/MRBMs as short-fuse deterrent on LAC to neutralise PLA’s conventional superiority.
professor who is the main powerful person in strategic plans division chaklala because this is confusing there is this pakistani lt gen named khalid kidwai who seems to be the main man and official spokesperson for pakistan’s nuclear related issue and then there is this guy named ausaf ali. I found a picture of him and he does looks very similar to sourav ganguly
who is the man man here in SPD ausaf or khalid
Kidwai is mukhota
as expected but professor why would they try to hide this fact
what is so special in ausaf if you could tell as you have met him
kidwai is the puppet no doubt
A thorough professional.
@BharatKarnad
a little bit out of context from this Modi thing- Today is the 23rd anniversary of the parliament attacks
if you look into the past how should have we responded to those attacks and what were the available options in front of military and GOI
i don’t know specifically but you wrote somewhere that US gave india blueprints of a pakistani air base what was that whole incident sir ?
if you could tell a little bit about it
The map showed parts of the PAF base in Jacobabad where the US had prepositioned American stores and equipment — indicating areas NOT to hit!
yeah jacobabad but what went wrong with this plan why didn’t we go and blow off that base
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