An extraordinary political comeback by Donald J Trump — a convicted felon and an out and out conman who opened his mouth only to spew lies and rubbish, was re-elected 47th President by the bulk of American voters who cared only that their hero “pissed off” everybody and trampled on whatever was deemed “politically correct”.
Those in India who think that this a return to the good old “Howdy, Modi!” times ought to remember that his first term was marked by purely self-centered transactionalist view of American national interest. He will double down even more on this and on his isolationist impulses, insisting on getting more and giving less. Trump has no ideology, no scruples and, in the wake of his handpicked majority in the US Supreme Court, there will be no guardrails on his presidential actions either. He is quite literally free to act the dictator he has promised he will be “on Day One”!
But whether he throws his political opponents in jail, appoints cronies and sycophants as his ministers, legislates laws to fill his own pocket and benefit his family businesses, incarcerates those he and his supporters particularly hate — a long list with homosexuals and transgenders in the van, and otherwise runs riot on the domestic scene, is of no concern to India and Indians. The good thing for New Delhi is that Washington will be less inclined — given its own dismal record on view — to anymore make an issue of human rights violations in India, as the Biden-Harris Administration did. Trump officials may even be more indulgent when it comes to, say, Pannun and his ilk being mysteriously offed!
Linked to that issue is the plight of Punjabi and Gujarati families in India, who have mortgaged their land and wealth to fund the illegal entry of “dunkies” into America (through Mexico and Canada) of their sons and male relatives pursuing their dreams who, with Trump translating his election promise into policy, will find a negative return on their investment. These illegals, however long they may have resided in the US, will be rounded up and deported back to India. Newspapers are already reporting the US Immigration and Naturalisation Service, perhaps anticipating Trump’s return, sending several plane loads of “illegals” back to India. Get used to it. These flights will become more frequent.
Trump’s antipathy to Third World immigrants may spare the “techies” but they may have to jump through many more legal and qualification hoops. Still, that route will be open, but barely, to these “booted and suited” variety of Indian economic refugees, not little because Trump’s billionaire backers, among them Elon Musk — himself a onetime illegal immigrant from South Africa, require a steady flow of technically proficient IT guys and such to man their high-value firms. But non-techie economic refugees, particularly Sikh and Gujarati youth — the ones without software and similar credentials, who can barely speak the English language but who, once on US soil destroy their Indian passports and ask for “political asylum” — conjuring up all manner of Indian hell they supposedly escaped to convince the US INS officials, will find it hard going. Because such pleas will now fall on deaf ears. In effect, asylum as a means of illegals regularising their presence in America, is terminated. It will also end a source of embarrassment to India and the Indian government.
But let’s get down to brasstacks. To recall, Modi’s hugging Trump and the two walking hand-in-hand down the Houston ramp, did not prevent the latter from remembering that Harley Davidson motorcycles weren’t getting a fair shake, and imposing extortionst tariffs on Indian steel and alumium, and other products, effective overnight, in return! Among his main election planks was his threat to impose a 65% tariff on all imports. He may have in mind to penalise China, but Indian imports will be in the same bag. The out for New Delhi will be to fork out more of what Washington wants — like tariff-less access to the Indian market for its dairy and meat products — which will be a priority because he has won Wisconsin and Michigan, Ohio and Indiana — states with dairy-heavy economies!
The point to make is that unless Modi is willing to play hardball — and return fire with fire, which given the PM’s and Jaishankar’s personal investment in good relations with the US, is unlikely, India will be taken to the cleaners.
Trump has made clear to his treaty allies and security partners, for instance, that the US will expect European and Asian states, long accustomed to free-riding on the American security coattails, to payup for having US troops and military assets on their territories. With Ukraine now being compelled to make peace with Russia on Putin’s terms — which was always on the cards (as my posts on this Blog made plain from the start), this message will get hammered in. The lesson for Messrs Modi, Jaishankar, et al, is that India hereafter will have to fend for itself when militarily dealing with China, but, of course, Trump will be only too happy to sell his good friends — India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, other Asian countries and NATO members, expensive weapons systems and other stuff for billions and billions of $$$$$. Such sales will, of course, keep the US defence industry in the clover, create more American jobs, and strengthen his domestic support base. Who can argue with that?
The thing I contended in my 2018 book — Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition (Penguin), prophetically it turns out, is that such Trump policies would force India to become self-dependent, and genuinely autonomous as regards its own indigenous defence industry. But this outcome is only if Modi stops bending his knees to foreign countries — the US, China, European states, by way placating/pacifying them with continued access to the Indian market, when such access should be sold very, very dear — something that Piyush Goel, the Commerce Minister, signing every free trade agreement passing his table, has NOT been instructed to do. As part of Modi’s foreign country pacification program is India’s readiness to sign massive deals for military equipment as gestures mainly to generate goodwill. What else was the $4 billion deal with the US for 30 M9 Sea Guardian drones? And the multi-billion dollar contract with France for the Rafale Marine fighter aircraft to outfit the navy’s aircraft carriers?
By way of a curtain raiser, watch out for preemptive knee-bending when the Indian government announces that Elon Musk’s Tesla will be allowed to set up a factory to make electric vehicles with tax holidays and other concessions that he demanded of Modi, which were earlier denied him. It will be justified, of course, on the PM’s “Green” agenda grounds. Elon Musk contributed $75 million to the Trump campaign, made his social media platform X (twitter) a megaphone for Trump, and now virtually has a carte blanche economically.
The result of the presidential election only emphasises the point I made in December last year on this blog (https://bharatkarnad.com/2023/12/02/india-needs-to-erect-guardrails-in-its-relations-with-america/). If Trump’s 1st term in office was prelude to his 2nd term, we can expect a piling up of excessive US pressure and punitive policies because Washington knows that New Delhi buckles under when in duress. This makes erecting guard rails for Indo-US relations an urgent strategic imperative the country cannot do without.
Security Wise 
@BharatKarnad
do you really think that the 65% tariff threat is to be taken seriously .And if it is to be imposed then can’t the Modi government negotiate for some relaxation exclusive for India?
Prime Minister Modi should take a page out of Kim Jong Un’s rulebook , on how to deal with Trump and his sycophants. Like Kim, we should tackle Trump head on and not carry out any compromises with regards to our strategic interests(like trade , market access, sacrednedness of India’s strategic space, etc) .It is still not late to implement India First doctrine(in its true form) ,first mooted/conceptualized by Dr Karnad in the early 2000s.
But off course PM Modi and his Jaishankar – Doval duo may try to be in the good books of Trump by buying drones that crashland ( read Predator Drone) or rifles that malfunction(Sig Sauer SiG 716) . Trump may return all this favour by suspending the important GE F404 Jet Engine Deal ,which is critical for out Tejas fighter jets , like he did in his first term.A nice tight slap in the face of the Indian government.On the flipside ,like Dr Karnad mentioned , the Kaveri Engine Project make get a fillip.
@foodometry
In which book is this india first doctrine of professor karnad written could you mention it
Professor,
I’m glad Kamala Harris did not win! I think Trump will be better for India and global foreign policy than her. Also, let’s see how he cleans up the deep state – there is a churn happening there and the chips haven’t settled yet.
I think Trump will be better for handling the Khalistan issue like you say, and Canada. We might actually see some progress on GE engines. Agree that India should drive a hard bargain on trade.
But I’m not sure there will be much knee bending from India going forward. The current government is more experienced and has stood up to the U.S. on Russia. The genuflection, like on Iran for example, won’t happen again.
On Ukraine, I hope there is a cessation of war. Hard to stop, but still worth a try. I’m glad illegal migration will suffer! On legal migration, I have my suspicions, but new billionaire backers have been clear that this should not be touched. Let’s see what happens actually.
On Aatmanirbharta, I think the babus trying to sabotage it should be purged. It’s more an Indian problem than anything else.
yes sir,,,,but hate him or love him…trump is going to disrupt…i believe india should be more alligned to east asia-JAPAN and korea ,Germany ,france from europe , lithunsia for cyber tech for high end advanced machinery for robotics ,ship building…and military tech from isreal..
also sir can u write what collaboration india can do with russia in military domain as russia is need of money but still some nuclear ,space military area it has some heft..and china is in the verge of grabbing russia’s crown jewel tech–
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3285314/china-import-russian-tech-and-expertise-boost-low-altitude-defences-state-media?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage
so what india can play with russia so that russia doesnot tilt more towards CHINA..
Enjoyed reading the piece. Thank you. Sent from my iPad
(Patney is retired Air Marshal, IAF)
Indian establishment is too corrupt and easily bends over to everyone. As evident from Modi bowing down to China. Trump can easily run circles around the Gujarati bania masquerading as an OBC and self proclaimed ‘Vishvguru’
“Linked to that issue is the plight of Punjabi and Gujarati families in India, who have mortgaged their land and wealth to fund…..”
Later these same Gujjus turn up at Modi rallies in US, chanting NAMO, NAMO. Every single one of them should be rounded up and deported back to India with a stamp on their passports, “Debaared from ever entering US”
I know a RSS minded, Modi Bhakt Punjuu. He retired as a Deputy Director from one of the government departments. He was complaining about Rohingyas infiltrating India whereas his own son is in US and the man is trying to do everything to get him a US Green card 😆
@BharatKarnad a little bit out topic from this election thing but
professor can you please provide “Going Thermonuclear: Why, With What Forces, at What Cost,” United Service Institution Journal 17, no. 3 (July–September 1998) article that you wrote
curious to read that if you could do something
Go to the USI website or to USI
professor i have already looked at the USI website
it is not there that is why i am asking you
Apologies, not sure what I can do.
Professor Karnad I have read first 40 articles of ‘Strategic Sellout’. It’s disheartening that despite you and others crying hoarse, Dr. Manmohan Singh Govt compromised on India’s sovereignty and strategic interests. What I’m fond of is your language, that’s why I’m hooked on to your articles and books.
i wanted to ask what is the current status of civilian nuclear deal. Has India got any new nuclear technologies ? As far as I know Trump had offered discredited Westinghouse reactors to Indian govt. Does India get annual supply of Uranium fuel from Nuclear Supplier Group ? How far has India progressed in third phase of nuclear technology i.e. Thorium reactors ? After Dhruva reactor was to be closed within 5 years, has India got its indigenous replacement breeder reactor to produce Plutonium up and running ? Do IAEA inspectors still come now and snoop in on our hard earned nuclear technologies ? What is holding Modi govt back to walk out of the deal now ? Is it fear of debilitating sanctions that will compromise our GDP growth or USA tit for tat walking out of F-404 and F-414 engine deals ? With new technologies like Solar Power having come into picture do we still need to worry that much about share of nuclear power ?
@gagandeep professor said once that we have not even got 10 percent electricity and other benefits that were promised
this deal was a total fraud and as the name of the book suggests indian government literally traded our strategic weapons/technologies for this stupid deal
btw there were people in the manmohan government who were saying that bush will make india a superpower through this deal but those morons are not seen anywhere now.
only solution is that we have to trash this deal
@aditya mishra it is easier said than done. I was today reading that GTRE has imported a very advanced CNC machine that will help it in making Jet Engine parts. The sad part is all the advanced CNC machines come from USA.
Am I right to think that minus the nuclear deal all these items (CNC machines, F-404, F-414, the recently announced facility to make advanced chips) wouldn’t have come had India not signed the Civilian Nuclear Deal and somewhat toed the US Foreign policy guidelines ? Or it might be that had India been more rigid and not fallen head over heels for Civilian Nuclear Deal, USA would have got accustomed to a strong India and would have tried to still keep India on its side by offering all the above mentioned items nevertheless..
But there is no turning back now. US has tasted blood and India is slowly getting so enmeshed with US by means of technology, economy, trade, foreign policy that it will be well nigh impossible to extricate itself from the Civilian Nuclear Deal in near future.
The other line of thought I’m thinking on is that Professor Karnad in every book and article seems pro-Russia. We know fully well that Russia no longer can fulfill all the defence technology needs of India. So may be India had no other option left except to climb on the US bandwagon. But to be confirmed in that may be I will have to read a third author (other than Professor Karnad and Pravin Sawhney). Which one I don’t know of.
But presently I’m thinking of reading MJ Akbar after I finish with the yet to be published book of Prof Karnad. Professor Karnad is very cogitative I must concede
@BharatKarnad
professor why did Ukraine abandon it’s nuclear weapons after the soviet union collapsed like i want to know the reason behind this decision
some say that Ukrainians only had the warheads with them but the firing and control mechanism was in moscow so they had to return it something like that. I could not get a clear answer.
If you could tell something about this
Await my book!
@BharatKarnad
professor in which book of yours is this india first doctrine written as @foodometry said
the new indigenous power plant for Arjun mbt . Would it be suitable or would it face delays like kaveri engine.
In reply to the querie, the first time I articulated the India First doctrine was in the May 2002 of the serious journal ‘Seminar’,
at https://www.india-seminar.com/2002/519/519%20bharat%20karnad.htm
Subsequently, in Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet), and in Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition
@Adityamishra Professor Karnad in 2004 had attended a seminar in which Sunil Khilnani of the John Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in Washington DC and Professor Karnad had expressed divergent views on “India and the World” in the presence of Sonia Gandhi and Natwar Singh.
Mr. Khilnani while acknowledging the primacy of military power, presented the traditional liberal view of an India hewing to Nehruvian values, but with a twist. He recommended coming to terms with the United States – “the most decisive player in the international held in the manner China has, by cultivating economic leverages.”
Professor Karnad emphasised on India practising hard realpolitik and acquiring strategic fire power on a priority basis, particularly high yield thermonuclear weapons and inter-continental ballistic missiles; simultaneously Prof Karnad recommended India adopting friendly measures towards countries (including Pakistan) in widening circles from the subcontinent to acquire a clout that will equalise the currency of exchange where the USA is concerned, and to blunt China’s political-military edge in Asia.
According to Professor Karnad instead of succumbing to the Civilian Nuclear Deal, if India wants to (milk the USA of technology and) join NPT as a nuclear weapon state, it should have taken a leaf from the book of China i.e. delicately threatening to upset the apple cart if its demands are not met. But the question arises that India does not have the heft of China. So professor Karnad recommends looking no further than Iran and North Korea. But the moot point is shall we want India to be another Iran or North Korea with their economies tottering at 1 dollar equivalent to 42105 Iranian Rial and 900 North Korean Won respectively?
All India’s major acquisitions from USA have happened post Civilian Nuclear Deal, be it P-8I Poseidon, C-17 Globemaster III, C-130J Super Hercules, Apache, CH-47 Chinook, MQ-9 Reaper, SH-60 Sea Hawk, missiles like Naval Strike Missile, AIM-92 Stinger, AGM-114 Hellfire, help in Tejas avionics, Naval Tejas, and building aircraft carrier and further in EMALS (Prof Karnad had criticised that in his last book on its exorbitant price), F-404 and F-414 with technology transfer greater than what South Korea and Sweden have got (and possibly building a 120 to 130 KN engine with GE for AMCA) and scores other minor but very important ones that I’m missing.
I consider myself a pygmy to question the wisdom of Professor Karnad (who is immensely readable) and I might be wrong, but I mean India has gained by associating with the United States. If the USA backtracks (say in transferring technology of aero engines) or the strategic emergency so demands, we have the option to go thermonuclear anytime now that we have missed the earlier bus. Regarding Professor Karnad averring that the USA needs India more than vice-versa, Larry Pressler of Pressler Amendment fame thinks other way round. And lastly, India’s democracy has certain limitations vis-a-vis Chinese system but it has its advantages too.
So I have found my third author to get a balanced view and that would be Sunil Khilnani in Manmohan Malhotra edited book, especially its section “India and the World” in which both Khilnani and Professor Karnad give their views. And who knows, there might have been no pressing need for a Civilian Nuclear Deal.
(Credits : India’s Self-goals, Bharat Karnad, The Asian Age, October 25, 2006)
@Gagandeep
thank you for the amazing insightful analysis
what is the name of the sunil khilnani book that you mentioned above?
‘India : The Next Decade’ edited by Manmohan Malhoutra
@adityamishra there was only one used copy of ‘India: The Next Decade'” available which I have ordered. So my apologies. You can try contacting the publishers.
Gagandeep@, Aditya@ — You may care to read my ‘India First’ piece to begin to get a grip on US’ agenda — the access to Chinooks, etc, being only so much strategic frippery.
Professor Karnad I have read that piece. Quite interesting and extremely enjoyable as your usual output. But some of your apprehensions are mislaid. For instance, why would USA attack India with conventional or nuclear weapons ? Not seeing happening in next 25 years. After that they will be rival powers. Even Strobe Talbott in his autobiography after retirement had referred to Jaswant Singh as my dear friend despite Jaswant Singh sticking to his guns in most of the parleys. Yes, decision to prematurely end testing was taken in haste. But sometimes politicians and bureaucrats are faced with pressures which only they can understand best. And you refuse to agree that despite India doing a lot off late in indigenous technology, they need help of West in certain sticking points. And secondly, I have also noticed that there is a streak in Indian psyche that sometimes in their overexcitement to please a superior power they lose track of their own interest. Even Pravin Sawhney had pointed that out, recall laying out red carpet to Xi in their initial bilaterals or Hindi-Chini bhai bhai; Chinese hate sycophancy because they take it as a sign of weakness. May be a vestige of our cultural “Atithi Devo Bhava”. But now they are learning to firming up.
Dear Dr Karnad , I believe Mr Modiji or Mr Jaishankar will manage the Trump administration well since both of them are well experienced to Washington politics. However I believe Mr Trump this time will be busy in cleaning the deep state. I am not sure about Trump very soon cutting a deal with Mr Putin over Ukraine as the deep state is deeply invested in the continuation of the war in Ukraine. What is your take on the same?
typhoon@ — Trump has to show immediate results. Deporting millions is not easy. UKR is the obvious target for early resolution — because he can force Kyiv to forget about Donbas and settle with Moscow. This is what’s on the card as I have always maintained.
Professor,
Frankly I’m pretty excited about the changes Trump is talking about so far. $2T in government cost cuts, firing of top Military officers, potential resolution of the Ukraine war etc. let’s see how well he executes, but I get the distinct feeling that this time he knows how to get things done, better than the last time.
But given Trump’s realist instincts, I also think that while the US will partner with India to contain China, it will also work to contain India. After all, that’s what a realist policy should do. So there will always be tension with the US, no matter who is President.
The trick for India is to ensure it gets the most of its relationship with the US without antagonizing it too much, since China is India’s main threat and nearby neighbor. However, it should keep its cards open with China too in case the US gets too tough.
But, I think there is more congruence in strategic interests with the Trump administration- dismantling the liberal hegemonic deep state, better relations with Russia, and better containment of China. So hopefully, things will be smoother under Trump than Biden. But long term, the US will try and contain India. India just has to play the game well.
Dear Dr Karnad , giving up on Ukraine will lead to long term issues with regards to US power perception wrt Russia and Europe. Why on earth will anyone want to ally with the US when a change in the US administration can set back a state’s long term strategic interests ? Let’s face it, it was the US that vetoed 2022 Turkish settlement offer and forced Ukraine into an unavoidable war that may jeopardize its continuation as a sovereign state. Now any backing out of the Ukraine front will be perceived as weakness in both Brussels and Moscow (and Beijing). Can any perception of a strong American power survive the same ?
Sure. Many NATO states may choose to wait out 4 years of Trump in hope of the situation returning to normal.
@BharatKarnad
professor what if the Indian government in future maybe after 15 years only focuses on sea based weapons(SLBM AND SSBN) due to their Survivability, stealth .UK also does the same they have completely eliminated the other 2 legs of the triad and only rely on Vanguard SSBN. France has two types of delivery system air and sea based but for deep strikes in Russia they would too most probably prefer only sea based Triomphant submarines.
What problem will arise for us if we go for sea based weapons only .If you could tell about this
@BharatKarnad
professor any updates regarding the tu 160 bomber deal which you proposed .As per latest report negotiations are going on between india and Russia?
Isn’t the operational cost for this aircraft high and how many squadrons are sufficient according to our needs 2 or 3
One squadron of the advanced ‘White Swan’ Tu-160 is good for starters. Yes, the maintenance costs will be slightly higher than for fighter planes.
Professor Karnad, despite you being my favourite author, some of your solutions are improbable that are rooted in 25 years old military set-up. What chance a Tu-160 have of penetrating Chinese airspace protected by very dense and quality air-defence systems including missiles and DEW weapons, employing AI, monitored by satellites and with full control of electromagnetic spectrum. They cannot be safely used to fire missiles even from a stand-off range as Chinese have air to air missiles with 300-400 km range. Add to that their maintenance woes.
Only a B-2 Bomber can penetrate Chinese airspace once F-22 and F-35 have taken care of major air defence nodes. Americans are vary of even that, that is why they have come up with even stealthier B-21. Tu-160’s counterpart B-1B can barely manage to be out of the garage.
That’s why mentioned the advanced ‘White Swan” Tu-160.
More than 75 million persons voted and not all of them were conned. A transactional Trump is easier to deal with than an inscrutable Xi. What you see is what you get. Trump will lay his cards on the table; deal with it. The era of free rides is over. China killed it.
Professor,
One of the spillover effects of Trump coming back is the pressure it will put on the Indian political class to reign in the bureaucracy. If Trump can slash and burn the Pentagon, the DoD, the CIA and the FBI, it shows a path for cleaning house in India.
For too long, Indian MoD and its procurement processes have stunted Indian defence preparedness. Someone has to take a sword and cut out the flab and clean the mess. I’m hoping that, what people are expecting to happen in the U.S. in the coming months, provides a model to do the same in India.
And it’s time that overall defence spending becomes a top issue. India desperately needs more funding for its armed forces.
@BharatKarnad
sir i was just reading a Carnegie endowment article on Indian nuclear force structure there many analyst including K. Subrahmanyam, Brig Vijay K Nair, Admiral and you who were saying that we need 20 percent of the total force or 50 warheads for post war/strike imperative and contingency. Now what contingencies were you all talking about i mean if there is a nuclear war won’t we fire off all our weapons what is the point of keeping 20 percent of the total force after both the countries have been devastated
would love to know your answer
Can’t expend all ammo in first salvo!
With Professor Karnad’s permission I would like to share something written by him which include the answers to my own questions raised here :
1.International relations is jungle-raj like in the badlands of Uttar Pradesh, might is right.
2.Powerful countries may humour weaker states but do not help them become strong, thereby adding to the competition.
3.States generating cutting-edge technology do not sell or transfer it to any other country for any reason. Ask America’s closest ally, the United Kingdom about being denied the atom bomb in the Forties, and more recently, the set of critical Joint Strike Fighter technologies, both of which it helped finance and co-develop !
4. India’s economic card has historically been trumped by the Foreigner’s military card , meaning the decisive military technology and capability of the day. India lacked a meaningful navy in the 17th century. It did not help that the country was an economic superpower at the time. The military card that cannot be beaten today is the trial of frightening megaton thermonuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear powered submarines, which has to be secured on a war-footing. It will provide the security overhang beneath which the Indian economy can grow rapidly, unmolested. (How beautiful ! )
5.Resumption of open-ended testing is a technical imperative, necessary to obtain boosted-fission and fusion weapons that are safe, proven and reliable- qualities, incidentally, missing in the existing Indian deterrent. Ties with the West disrupted by the Indian tests will quickly return to normal, because the advanced economies are hooked profitably into the comparatively advantages techno-economic sphere in India, because of the lure of huge profits that make the Indian market irresistible to NSG states and render long-term embargoes unsustainable and, because, pushed to the wall, India could turn into a mean trouble-maker- the sort of entity former US President Lyndon Johnson advised it was better to have inside the tent pissing out rather than having it outside pissing in..
(The Asian Age, December 6, 2006)
But Professor Karnad had also warned (in my words) that Manmohan Singh government was locking India into a deal that the future governments might find difficult to shake off without immediate (economic and military) repercussions, a sort of predicament we find ourselves in today with threat of indefinite delay of our indigenous fighter jet and engine programmes (and economic growth going for a toss), should we resume nuclear testing today.
Gangandeep@ — You have done a masterful job of summarizing many of my most important views than I could have!
@BharatKarnad
professor looks like a new hypersonic long range missile has just been tested(it’s a success to ig) at the apj abdul kalam island the defence minister just tweeted please do write a blog regarding this as you wrote for mirved agni5