[Natanz centrifuge unit]
On the first anniversary of the Oct 7 Hamas attack on Israel that has unravelled the region and pushed the world, some alarmists claim, to the brink of the Third World War, it may be useful to look at certain salient developments. Anybody who is aghast or surprised at the sustained brutality of Israel’s retaliation in which the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) razed Gaza City to the ground using indiscriminate aerial bombing and heavy artillery fire, virtually eliminated Hamas by bombing whole residential areas where Hamas members resided and individually hunted down the cadre that survived such strikes, and eviscerated the Hezbollah organisation entrenched in southern Lebanon, is apparently unaware of the essential Israeli mindset animating its approach to national security problems — “Rise and Kill First”! This, incidentally, is the title of a book by Ronen Bergman dealing with Mossad’s seemingly endless campaign of targeted assassinations carried out the world over with lethal imaginativeness and ruthless efficiency.
These characteristics of Mossad’s working were illustrated, most recently, in the spectacular operation of exploding pagers that, at a stroke, decapitated Hezbollah, killing most of its top leadership, including its emir, Hassan Nasrallah, and communications chief, Mohammad Rashid Sakafi. It required penetrating and controlling parts of a global supply chain involving design units and factories stretching from Japan and Taiwan to Hungary. Ironically, the Hezbollah had switched to pagers to enable its leaders to communicate with frontline commanders, fighters, and support staff without worrying about Mossad listening in, which is what it feared was happening! That Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated the kill order despite Nasrallah agreeing to a temporary ceasefire, indicates both Tel Aviv’s bloody-mindedness but also just how determined it is to zero out threats, even if it means undermining the underway efforts at peacemaking. Tehran then responded, unwisely, by opening up with a barrage firing of long range ballistic missiles on Tel Aviv which did little consequential damage. But it provided the rightwing regime in Israel a ready excuse to extend hostilities to Iran if it chooses to do so. Netanyahu is now deciding whether or not to escalate in the face of intense presure from the Biden Administration against such action. And, this is where matters presently stand.
The biggest uncertainty now is not the goal Netanyahu will set Mossad and IDF as regards warring with Iran — because he has long made public his intention to take out critical Iranian nuclear facilities, and remove this nuclear threat to Israel once and for all, but whether he will actually order such a strike. In this respect, recall that in 2009, Mossad and the US Central Intelligence Agency launched a joint cyber strike with the deadly stuxnet software that put a large bank of centrifuges at Iran’s nuclear facility in Natanz out of action. Indeed, so severe were the results of that attack Tehran decided it needed time to recover and “rebuild” this uranium enrichment capability and agreed on an executive agreement — not a treaty — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with a consortium of leading states — the US, Britain, France, China, Germany, Russia and the European Union, in the hope of using it as a political-diplomatic cover but, formally, in return for a partial lifting of US sanctions.
What was surprising was the extent Tehran went to show good faith to obtain the JCPOA. According to a White House Fact Sheet, between October 2015 and January 16, 2016 when it was signed, the government of Hassan Rouhani “Provided unprecedented access to its nuclear facilities and supply chain; Shipped 25,000 pounds of enriched uranium out of the country; Dismantled and removed two-thirds of its centrifuges, & Removed the calandria from its heavy water reactor and filled it with concrete”, and shipped some 70 tons of Heavy Water to Qatar, presumably, for safekeeping.
And then the best thing that could have happened from Iran’s point of view, actually happened. Ill-advised, US President Donald Trump on May 8, 2018 announced US withdrawal from JCPOA, calling the agreement “a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made” and adding, as an afterthought, “It didn’t bring calm, it didn’t bring peace, and it never will.”
A relieved Iran quickly revved up its nuclear programme. With 19,000 centrifuges working, inside of 2-3 months enough bombgrade uranium was outputted for 9 nuclear weapons. Compare this to the situation under JCPOA when Iran had only 6,104 centrifuges cranking out high enriched uranium (HEU) that was barely enough for a single bomb and, as the White House Fact Sheet crowed, when “all 4 pathways to bomb [were] blocked.” The blocked pathways being HEU at Natanz and at another centrifuge facility in Fordow, weapon-grade fissile material via the Heavy Water route, and via covert production owing “to extraordinary and robust monitoring, verification, and inspection” by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Iran has three main targetable nuclear weapons-related installations, if the Heavy Water reactor at Arak able to produce around 9kg of weapons-grade Plutonium annually sufficient for a single bomb is discounted, because of the gutting of its core with cement, and which plutononium pathway to the nuclear weapons in any case is unavailable to Iran as it lacks a spent fuel reprocessing facility. There are the two centrifuge facilties at Natanz and Fordow, the installations in Isfahan to convert uranium to uranium hexafluoride gas — the Uranium Conversion Facility — for running the centrifuges for enrichment to bombgrade, and the one to convert HEU into metal — the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant, to configure the metalised uranium into fissile cores for weapons, and the main weapons design centre — the Tehran Research Centre. Iran also has a nuclear power plant complex in Bushehr on the Gulf coast with a single 1,000MW VVER Russian light water reactor operating since 2013 and two more 1,000MW VVERs under construction. Hitting it might lead to the contamination of the Gulf waters.
But there are problems with some of these target sets. Natanz, for instance, is located near the shia religious city of Qom. Bombing it may result in collateral damage to religious sites, institutions and in the deaths of the shia clergy, and that would surely trigger an enhanced religious war and an anti-West upsurge in the region. Built for enrichment on a commercial scale with 50,000 potential centrifuges, of these around14,000 are said to be installed and only 11,000 actually functioning and capable of refining uranium to up to 5% purity. Except, post JCPOA the enrichment has gone up to 60% purity or nearly 90% weapon grade at both the Natanz and Fordow sites, with the latter having 1,000 plus centrifuges operating there, a small portion of them of an advanced type (IR-6 machines) enriching uranium to up to 60%.
Having learned from the Israeli strike on the Iraqi Osirak reactor in 1981, Iran installed the centrifuges in Natanz and Fordow in caverns excavated deep inside the Zagros Mountain Range in central Iran, rendering them nearly invulnerable. As General Frank McKenzie, retired commander of the US Central Command, told CBS News recently, “The Iranian nuclear target is a very difficult target. We have special capabilities that allow us to get at it. The Israelis do not have all of those capabilities. They can certainly hurt this target if they choose to, if they choose to strike it. But again, because of its size, complexity and scope and how it’s expanded over the last 10 years, it’s a very difficult target to take out.”
It is precisely these special American earth-burrowing weapons that Netanyahu craves in order to carry out strikes, which Washington is denying him. This is what has restrained Tel Aviv so far, and not as has been bandied about by some in the Indian media that Israel lacks tanker aircraft to facilitate the 2,000 mile flights to Iranian targets and back by Israeli strike aircraft. There is such a thing as “buddy refuelling” — additional F-15s and F-16s with transferrable fuel as payload for mid-flight refuelling accompanying the contingent comprising F-15s pulling combat air patrol for the striking F-16s. And the Tehran Research Centre is not singly worth attacking because the scientists and engineers will have been relocated to safety.
Or, Netanyahu can simply wait out the Biden Administration and hope Trump returns to power because in his presidential campaign he has been urging Israel to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities “first” and “worry about the rest later”. But even an impulsive re-elected Trump may hesitate in allowing Netanyahu a free hand in 2025 because Russia will come in strongly against any such action, and Trump has never not deferred to Putin (whether on Ukraine, or other issues).
Security Wise 
@BharatKarnad Since the Right-wing Government of the State of Israel 🇮🇱 of Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has neither the Boeing GBU 57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator [MOP] bomb 💣 nor the Boeing B-52 Stratofortress bomber 💣 aircraft ✈️ required to carry the Boeing GBU 57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator [MOP] bomb 💣 to destroy all the nuclear ☢️ weapons installations of the terrorist Shia Muslim ☪️ Islamic ☪️ Republic of Iran 🇮🇷, do you 👨🏾 think 💬🤔 that Israel 🇮🇱 will instead use its nuclear ☢️ weapons to destroy Iran’s 🇮🇷 nuclear ☢️ weapons installations ❔❓❕❗
Where Netanyahu and the current mood of the Israeli govt and people are concerned, nothing can be ruled out.
@BharatKarnad So, you don’t rule out the possibility of Netanyahu ordering the use of Israel’s 🇮🇱 nuclear ☢️ weapons to destroy Iran’s 🇮🇷 nuclear ☢️ weapons installations❔❓❕❗
No
Wouldn’t that be a disaster what if radiation levels are detected at attacked iranian sites
Sir India is buying this expensive drone ==
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/India-to-buy-31-armed-drones-from-the-U.S
is it not wastage of money…as seen this drone are drowned by cheap missile by yemeni houthi…
https://www.timesofisrael.com/yemens-houthis-claim-to-shoot-down-us-mq-9-reaper-drone-ship-targeted-in-red-sea/
in 1 year they seems drowned 4 MQ-9 drones
so how this drone can survive in contested airspace between india-china or india-pak??
wheether this is only for vast sea patrol and intelligence in indian ocean….?
It is an absolute useless, money wasting, deal.
It means that Israel is going to attack Iran’s nuclear program very soon. Once upon a time you (Mr.Karnad) wrote that Russia won’t attack Ukraine and the very next day, Russia launched its offensive then you wrote about some military man becoming the next CDS. Didn’t even hear his name anywhere after that.
HoHo@ — Never ever said Russia won’t attack Ukraine. What I said from Day one Feb 24, 2022, when the Russian invasion began was that nothing will stop Russia from taking the Donbas bridgehead (eastern Ukraine) to Crimea and Crimea. That’s coming true. About ADM Karambir Singh as CDS he was strongly in the running for the CDS post.
Khaat@ — Your reference https://bharatkarnad.com/2022/02/23/there-will-be-no-war-over-ukraine-heres-why/. Yes, my bad!
But, read how I began that piece — “Taking a risk here of being very wrong.” So. But, also how about the rest of that post, every bit of which has been proved right since.
@BharatKarnad
Amazing blog professor
According to you how much deep are Iranian centrifuges located
Because the most powerful American GBU-57 penetrator bomb can go upto 61metres deep
Are the centrifuges located even deeper than 61?
No idea! But there’s enough skepticism about the US capacity to take out Iranian N-facilities., one of the reasons that Trump was dissuaded from initiating such an op that he was inclined to order.
High chances that Trump is not coming back professor he has changed his mindset and will not indulge in wars which is completely opposite to the thinking of the military industrial complex and deep state squad.
They hate him and tried to kill him in butler and florida
And it’s the deep state that is actually the owner of US
does india have any such bombs? or undergoing development ?
Vivek@ — Nope
From what I gather, Professor, the Israel lobby in the US still influences its policy on Israel and forces it to support Israel’s ultra aggressive actions even though it maybe detrimental to US interests. Can’t imagine how escalating the war in Lebanon Gaza and Iran will serve Israel or the U.S.
Israel may want to nuke Iran’s nuclear facilities but on this the U.S. will likely put its foot down and not supply Israel with what it needs. Hopefully some sense prevails but who knows – there are serious war mongers in the US too.
But agree with your overall assessment that it is unlikely Israel will be able to take out Iran’s nuclear capabilities. It’s more likely that Iran will develop a nuclear weapon before that happens. That would be my guess!
@BharatKarnad professor as i was reading through this blog and you mentioning mountains to hide nuke facility i am just curious to ask
Can’t we do the same here in India like forming mountain tunnels to store our Agni missiles just like Chinese do with DF missiles and Iranian have too hid their missiles in their mountain ranges.
Realistic or not?
This solution was detailed in my 2002 book Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security, and has since been implemented by the government.
Really
never knew that they already had something like this operational
but which mountain range in india is capable of keeping our missiles do you know the name professor
There are so many mountain ranges.
@BharatKarnad When do you 👨🏾 think 💬🤔 Israel 🇮🇱 will carry out its retaliatory strikes against Iran 🇮🇷❔❓❕❗Is there a possibility that they might carry out their retaliatory strikes sometime between the end of the election voting ☑️🗳️ cycle and election 🗳️☑️ results day in order to drag the United States of America [USA] 🇺🇸 in their war against Iran 🇮🇷 irrespective of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump becoming the next President of the United States of America [USA]❔❓❕❗
Ganesh@ — Israel will do what it decides to do, by its own time calculus.
Peasant ravings and narrow horizons of imbeciles fashioning themselves as intellectuals in the media aside, the strike package would likely include F-35. Israel’s diplomatic penetration of Sunni states also extends its area of operation. If the Americans green-lighted the operation, it would include an assortment of stealth platforms and other technologies, whose involvement will not be made public. New improvements in the bio-warfare—limiting its fallout— also makes their deployment less worriesome to the strategically-minded martial politicians.
@BharatKarnad
professor i think it’s over the iranians have done it if it is true as per the latest reports various groups and institutions have detected earthquake in iran’s semnan province meaning they may have already conducted a low yield 5-15kt nuclear test.
BharatKarnad@ That’s true, but hasn’t Netanyahu already defied Biden’s pleas enough for the latter to feel humiliated and say that Israel should remember what he has done for it❔❓ So, do you think 💬🤔 in order to further humiliate Biden, Netanyahu will order a strike on Iran 🇮🇷 sometime during the election voting 🗳️ cycle and election 🗳️ results day in the hope that Kamala Harris loses and Donald Trump who has told Israel 🇮🇱 to strike Iran’s 🇮🇷 nuclear ☢️ weapons installations instead wins❔❓❕❗
@BharatKarnad professor ,Offtopic but recently Japan’s newly (s)elected PM Shigeru Ishiba talked about an Asian NATO , which is congruent with the idea from from your book “Future Imperilled ” , of having an organic Asian security system centred at India with Israel and Japan functioning as its two pillars.Unfortunately Dr Jaishankar said it would not pursue it , because India practises “strategic autonomy” (byword for American subservience). Do you think a strong willed government in the future would pursue it ?
Except Ishiba’s NATO has the US as one of its principals’ in my my organic security concept the US was an extra-territorial balancer — its traditional role. Not joining such an Asian NATO is the right course.
Understood , Thank you Dr Karnad
@BharatKarnad professor i was looking for some books by pk iyengar on nuclear issues
here i came upon this book “Briefings on nuclear technology in india” by pk iyengar now as you extensively quote Mr iyengar in your articles and books
He indeed advocates more testing
On Page number 45 1st paragraph line No.5 i am quoting him he says”It is of course true
that India could make boosted thermonuclear devices upto 100 Kilotons or more,
even by restricting oneself to the booster principle”
Now he claims that we can build upto 100kt you say that the only proven tested credible weapon in our arsenal is 20kt
This is confusing please clarify what exactly is the true yield
“
https://newenergytimes.com/v2/library/2009/2009Iyengar-Briefings%20on%20Nuclear%20Technology.pdf this was the document/book i was talking about on page number 45 top paragraph
para@ — Dr Iyengar states unequivocally that India needs to resume 2-stage thermonuclear weapons to remove the uncertainty — precisely the point I have been making since May 11, 1998.
“… which did little consequential damage.” –
It is not supported by other news coming from various sources. as in here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HlTs7ika-s
or here:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/west-asian-crisis-prompts-biden-to-break-ice-with-putin/
I would say, right at this stage in my understanding, Iran has the upper hand. Satellite photography has revealed a lot of damage by Iranian missile attack on IDF’s fighter bases. Whether Israel can turn the table on Iran is yet to be seen.
Sankar@ — a missile barrage is a hit or miss proposition. So, a few airbases were damaged. These are already repaired. What’s awaited is Israel’s decision to escalate. If it means to go after Natanz/Fordow/Isfahan, it’ll have to do it alone and the results will be iffy at best for the reasons adduced. If, on the other hand, Tel Aviv chooses to seriously damage Iranian oil refineries, etc and cripple its economy then the US may join with crucial tech support, and even carrier sorties — this Tehran can’t prevent.
but won’t it be bad for India. Israel attacking iranian oil
iranians have said they will block strait of hormuz
they will attack US bases in UAE,Qatar and Saudi and push this region in a regional war
and it will be a big headache for our economy
Actually, not much of our energy needs are met by Iranian oil.
Further to my previous post, here is the latest:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/russia-aligns-with-iran-war-clouds-scatter/
“… I don’t understand how anyone who has seen the many video clips of the Iranian missile strikes on Israel cannot recognise and acknowledge that it was a stunningdemonstration of Iranian capabilities. Iran’s ballistic missiles smashed through US/Israeli air defences and delivered several large-warhead strikes to Israeli military targets. …”
Sankar@ — Have long made the point that there’s no anti-ballistic missile defence (not Patriot-2/3, not Arrow-2/3, nor the Russian Kalinin, or SA-500) that can withstand a missile barrage firing — an assertion proved by the success of a portion of the Iranian missiles getting through. The reason why I have argued for India not to invest uselessly in the 2-hit Prithvi missile defence system we have sunk monies into.
each and every word said by you is eventually becoming true
and here we are unnecessarily wasting our money in this ballistic missile defense few months ago their was a discussion in the government for purchasing arrow3 now we have seen its performance
shooting enemy nuclear warhead tipped missile is a fantasy
you truly have a long strategic vision professor
Professor i was searching books written by you i am just a little bit curious to know that the front page of your 2005 edition nuclear weapons and indian security book.
is that the image of shakti1 1998 underground testing or some other explosion
No. The image was taken by the publisher, Macmillan, out of stock images of megaton atmospheric thermonuclear blasts — likey the nearly 11 megaton “Ivy” test of 1952.
on amazon in the description of the book it is mentioned laxmi publication as publisher then Macmillan how ?
Laxmi, yes, was curious myself! Probably, they bought out the stock of the book from Macmillan.
@BharatKarnad
Professor a little bit offtopic but please
I was just reading about korean war(1950).The Americans were struggling to defeat the north Koreans even after conventionally bombing their cities.American general Douglas MacArthur proposed the last strategy to win the war.He sent a target list to Pentagon requesting to hit 36 nuclear weapons on North Korea on their airbases and across the de militarized zone because he wanted to create a radioactive cobalt belt so that in future no invading army from north could enter south korea again.Obvisiously Pentagon refused and this plan was never made into reality.
But after reading this method your strategy came into my mind which you advocate in your books and interviews
That is placing atomic demolition munition on the chinese border and if chinese forces cross then explode it.
Is your strategy also the same
Also what if the chinese detect radioactive material
Americans planned but eventually did not bring their plan in to action fearing radioactivity
Would love to know your views
Futuristic@ — Actually, it is after US President Eisenhower’s threat to use the A-bomb that North Korea and China agreed on the July 1953 Armistice Agreement. A little different from my advocacy of use of ADMs (in Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security) and ADMs plus forward-deployed canisterised Agnis on LAC (in Staggering Forward). The US threat was proactive. What I have suggested is in line with GOI thinking — its is passive/defensive — leaving it to the Chinese PLA to trip the wire.
aru talking about agni1,agni2 because placing a agni5 icbm on the border makes no sense
professor please clarify what is the meaning of launch on launch(warning) capability could not get a answer anywhere
is all this mentioned in why india is not a great power yet because currently i have that book on my desk
A-1s. For the other things, read my books!
well how about cruise missiles then professor because they are the least provocative then BM
i am talking about nuclear tipped brahmos,nirbhay
We have the Brahmos on LAC
Nirbhay is long range cruise
yaahood bombs sheeaa, saoodee dances in glee
roosee bombs ookrain, cheenee dances in glee
amrika votes porky papa donald duck for free
@BharatKarnad
professor curious to know that do indian nuclear forces have counterforce capability you know hitting missile launchers,SSBN bases, airfield and the leadership of the adversary
Take out puny Pakistan? Yeah. China, not so much.
obviously not why waste our weapons on a puny little thing called pakistan.Ohk that’s really worrying that we do not have against the chinese but is it the other way do the chinese have against us.
Yup. China is militarily pushing the US on the defensive
i just want to add on sir according to you what is the yield of the pakistani warheads
one of the former pakistani SPD commander said that majority or a major chunk of warheads are below 1kt on Nasr rockets
is that the case
Can’t vouch for the yield, but Pak Army has stressed tactical nukes
@BharatKarnad
sir this comment is regarding the shakti1 1998 200kt weapon
after reading your 2008 book and articles i came upon the conclusion:-
You say that the scientists in 1998 shakti 1 test made a fully 200kt designed device and placed it underground shaft after the explosion the device did not produce enough yield i think it only produced 53kt and fizziled out now to cover this failure or fizzling out of 200kt device people like kakodkar and chidambaram started saying that the device was deliberately scaled down to 45 kt to prevent the damage from spreading out to nearby villages.
did i came upon the right conclusion
This is what I have said in my books
Sir in ‘India’s Nuclear Policy’ on page 150-151 you say,” As long as the US retains its military dominance in Asia and the world, its influence in Pakistani politics, and its focus on terrorism, the Pakistani-China axis will be strategically muted. It is an end-state Delhi would like to prolong by cementing a strategic relationship with the United States but on equitable terms. It was fortuitous for the prospects of such a relationship that the regional and international power trends resulted in what one U.S. nuclear scientist, the late Wolfgang K.H. Panofsky, called the “non-proliferation nonchalance” of the U.S. government. This was central to realizing an Indian-U.S. rapprochement.”
What does this “non-proliferation nonchalance” mean ? Does it mean that as long as US tends to ignore the proliferation of nuclear weapons among its allies ?
And Sir, my usual wont is to criticize Indians as under-achievers ! Thanks for opening my eyes to the achievements of likes of Bhabha and the fact that at the time of writing this book (though Chinese focussed on using nuclear energy to weaponise earlier on – pointing to their destructive mindset) India’s Nuclear programme was technically more advanced than the Chinese and the Japanese.
And double thanks for making available, though used, but your personally signed copy of ‘Future Imperilled’. I’m reading it now..
And not the least, India should not buy Rafale now as minus the GaN based AESA and Electronic Warfare, it will be outdated at the outset. French won’t have GaN tech developed before the 30’s. And India is already working on GaN based Virupaksha radar for Su-30MKI on a war-footing.
Dear Dr Karnad, are you sure Israel has really been able to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah as you mentioned in this article ? I almost daily follow Israeli dailies and almost every day they report that Hezbollah is firing missiles in Israeli cities including even upto Tel Aviv. IDF soldiers are continuing to fall in both Gaza and South Lebanon. So how long before Israel will throw in the towel?
typhoon@ — No terrorist org can ever be fully destroyed even in an extended op, ‘coz by its very nature it is hydra-headed.
@BharatKarnad You seem to have forgotten that the Left-wing Communist terrorist group the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam [LTTE] was destroyed in 2009❕❗
President William Lai has pledged to uphold Taiwan’s self-governing status in his most high-profile public address since taking office earlier this year.
Lai was speaking to a crowd in Taipei to commemorate Taiwan’s National Day, only nine days after Communist China celebrated its 75th anniversary.
“The Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinates to each other,” he said, in a reference to the governments of Taipei and Beijing respectively.
“On this land, democracy and freedom are thriving. The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan,” he added.
Last month, Lai also questioned China’s assertion that its claim over the self-ruled island was based on territorial integrity. If that were the case, he suggested, Beijing would also be pushing to reclaim other so-called historic lands that once belonged to the Chinese empire.
“If China wants to annex Taiwan… it’s not for the sake of territorial integrity,” Lai said, in an interview to mark his first 100 days in office.
“If it is really for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t China take back Russia?”
Lai referenced the 1858 Treaty of Aigun, which saw China concede large swathes of Manchuria to Russia.
The concession occurred during what China refers to as the “century of humiliation,” when Western powers and Japan exploited the weakened Qing Dynasty.
He insists Taiwan has no need to declare independence because it is already an independent sovereign nation that has never been controlled by the People’s Republic of China.
Excerpts from the following;
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp95mdjk95ko
William Lai has delivered a tight slap to Xi Jinping 😆
The mere fact that no Indian government till now including the self proclaimed ‘Vishvguru’ has recognized Taiwan as a separate nation and exposed China’s bluff and bullying reveals how scared Indian establishment is regarding China.
I would love to hear the comments of Mr. Karnad & fellow readers on this issue.
Have for long advocated in my books and writings formally recognizing Taiwan and enlarging military cooperation with it.
@Capitalist Communist- You are completely right. The height of Indian establishment’s subordination to China irrespective of the political party in power at the centre can be gauged from the fact that no one even mentions about the Indian army’s triumph over PLA in the 1967 war. Forget the political parties even the Indian army hierarchy is scared to even mention it.
@BharatKarnad
professor do the pakis really have mirv tipped missiles because I was listening to a former SPD commander Khalid kidwai he and other chaklalu people in a very threatening tone were saying that ababeel missile can be used as counterforce against a target rich india.
Now common sense says that a nation like pakistan which cannot even launch a rocket in space how can it claim to have mirv missiles
whereas indian space program is much advanced you said he had developed mirv in late 2000s only
what do you think about it I would love to know your opinion
No, Pakistan does not have MIRV. But there’s no counting out China’s transferring this tech as it did N-weapons and missile tech should it judge the situation to be ripe for it. A scared Indian govt has never retaliated by transferring the same sort of N-missiles to countries on China’s border to equalize the power play, as I have been pleading for since my time in 1st NSAB, which’d have been a deterrent to China ‘coz it’d then have expected strictly reciprocal actions in return.
professor though i agree with your idea of giving N weapons to vietnam but do the vietnamese really have guts to fire a missile i mean i do not doubt their determination to fight superpower specially how they rubbed chinese noses in the ground in 1970s
But the vietnamese also know that one missile fired on china and it will have many chinese warheads attacking on it’s own land.
Vietnam has more guts than GOI’ll ever have.
@BharatKarnad
professor on October 5, an earthquake measuring 4.6 on the Richter Scale shook Semnan some analyst say that the Iranians have already developed it
As per observation two things are coming out either Iranian have tested a low yield battlefield weapon less than 10kt or the Russians have provided them with a dozen of nuclear warheads with some scud and hypersonic missiles
I believe in the second event
Which possibility are you buying sir ?
Neither. There’s not even offline evidence.
@BharatKarnad
professor what exactly is concept of mass destruction and weapons in vedas and hindu scriptures where can i read those
The first chapter in my book — Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security!
ohk but is all that information mentioned in 2008 or 2015 book because as of now i do not have the 2005 book on my desk
Can you give a gist or a summary of that section in this blog?
It is a nearly 800 page book! So, no! Too many points to recount, leave alone summarize
@BharatKarnad
Greetings Professor
If you are reading this.
Just finished reading India’s Nuclear Policy(2008) what an amazing book i had already read 2-3 books about india’s nuclear policies then i came to know about you and your work i am no expert but all i can say this was the best out of all of them well articulated and was captivating completed it in just two days.
Can we expect a new book professor in 2025 ??
Yes! (But have a dekko at my 2015 book — ‘Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)’ and the 2018 book, ‘Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition’ — which, among other things, also further my nuclear thesis and arguments!)
Sure i will checkout your remaining books very soon
sir a little bit curious any hints or guesses on what topic is the new book(2025)
is it nuclear, criticism of government policies or what?
Keep guessing!
@BharatKarnad
Sir is this true that the chinese proliferated and provided ballistic missile technologies to Iran.A notorious chinese national and a arms dealer was charged by the United States for the very same crime??
Yea, China is the supplier of nuclear and long range missile tech to Iran
Sir i agree with your missile arming Vietnam, Philippines i know dealing with China is India’s own responsibility and we cannot run away from it.
but can’t the united states do the dirty work and arm Vietnam, Philippines ,South Korea, Japan with missiles because the Russians and Chinese have supplied missile technologies, warheads to the Iranian which threatens Israel and US bases and their interest in the region can’t they arm all these nations.
Why have others do the work for you if India means to be security provider?
Dr Karnad , One year back you said to me that Chinese cannot blockade Taiwan however with the US busy with Ukraine and Israel and the US military industry struggling to cater to both the battlefields , do you think this is the time for the Chinese to blockade Taiwan and ensure a Hong Kong style reunification? Just last week there was a area denial operation by the Chinese around Taiwan. So has the Chinese improved their capacity for blockade Taiwan?
China can blockade at the Taiwan Strait-end, not the western approaches should the US and other navies deploy there
@BharatKarnad professor i was listening to one of our podcast in which you said that in 1990 when soviet union broke up Indian government missed the chance of hiring their brilliant missile and weapons scientist, engineers and then China took them away cause we did not act on time.
you also said about a top quality Indian scientist who is a master in quantum computing working in tsinghua university
Can you please elaborate these two very unfortunate incidents specially the soviet one
Have elaborated and detailed this episode in my books. But, in brief, in early 1990s when the USSR was dissolving, a whole bunch of elite nuclear weapons and missile scientists and engineers were offered to India because Moscow did not have the money to pay their salaries. The Narasimha Rao govt decided against the offer because the cabinet secretary argued that the pittance of remuneration they were asking for in hard currency exceeded his pay packet! This entire lot was gladly absorbed by China, whence that country’s progress in these areas by leaps and bounds in the last 30 years.
Thanks to such visionaries, India finds today itself in a position vis-a-vis China as it does. By the way professor your first chapter of 70 odd pages in ‘Future Imperilled’ is worth its weight in Gold. The only other book of similar merit on geostrategy I have read is “The Grand Chessboard” by Zbigniew Brzezinski. Though my hands are full for next two months, if you suggest some other title I’ll buy it.
@BharatKarnad
professor it seems China is all set to weaponize water against India by building the world’s largest hydropower project—the 60,000 MW Motuo mega-dam—on the Yarlung Tsangpo River(Brahmaputra)
How can the Indian government respond to this ?
Publicly by raising hell internationally, which India is not doing.
Definately
as usual a passive defensive scared indian government
Sir I had just yesterday mailed you regarding your 2002 book please have a look at it(Your mail box)
In 1994 you held the view that “it is preferable from the point of view of subcontinental security to have a weak and disorganised Iran”. British did the same. Do you still hold the same point of view or with India investing in Chabahar port and Iran being looked as a likely doorway to Central Asian markets, you now believe that India should cultivate Iran ?
I think at that time Pakistan and Iran were cosying up, but if I remember correctly in your recent two books you have somewhere spoken on the utility of Iran for India.
Iran is, pace Chabahar, central to India’s Afghanistan and Central Asia policies.
@BharatKarnad
Professor a little bit our of topic but please
if the Indian government decides to attack POK cutoff china and pakistan from each other and form a land route from Kashmir to central Asia via Afghanistan.And obviously we will also have to absorb the radical/patriotic population of POK
do you ever support such a operation/invasion
Would love to know your views
dear Karnad sir, how likely that Iran may opt for a nuclear weapon given the current situation? When can we expect so ?
The current situation has actually eased a bit.
Dear Dr Karnad, Forever wars in Europe like Ukraine as well as in the West Asia like we see now may well be the future for the region. What do you think?
Exactly. That’s what I detail and analyse in one of the chapters in my new book!
super excited looking forward to it
is it near completion
One and half chapters adrift!