[Good friends]
An AR-15 slug grazed US Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s ear. 2 cms to the right and the world would have witnessed in real time the splattering of his brains by the 5.56mm shell fired from 150 yards out from an unsurveilled elevation. Lucky for him, the 20-year old assassin didn’t use a proper sniper rifle and dial in the expected ballistic deviation at 100 yards as a professional might have done. But damned good shot any way.
(Between “the gas operated, air cooled” Armalite-15 designed by the legendary Eugene Stoner and the Kalashnikov it is hard to know which is the better infantry assault rifle. The former was in the running for the main US military personal weapon. The US Army chose the wrong, heavier, less versatile, rifle that jammed often in operations in Vietnam, forcing US troops to abandon their MR-16s for the AK-47s they picked from the dead Viet Cong they had killed in firefights. The selection of the MR-16, an AR-15 derivative created a big controversy in America. Looking at reports at the time and talking to some people in Washington — this was the mid-1980s and with the Rajiv Gandhi regime in Delhi — I had written that the Indian government/Indian Army should get the manufacturing license from the Colt Company and produce it here in India. It would have been a stupendously good choice for the Indian military. I am quite sure the Indian army never even looked at this option — but that’s another story, but par for the course for missing opportunities! And then compounded the mistake by not asking for a Kalashnikov factory from the Soviet Union. But I am straying!)
Surviving the assassination attempt is expected to buff up Trump’s image and may help him return to the White House. (But this guy is no hero. His rich father got a flunkie doctor to get him a deferment from serving in the Vietnam War in the 1960s on the pretext of a bone spur in the foot!). By sending a message to his “good friend” Trump, Modi may have reminded the would-be US president to keep India and the Indian PM in his good books. It won’t matter. It was after the ” Howdy, Modi” event in Houston that Trump, miffed by what he thought were unreasonable taxes on American goods, kicked India out of the list of developing countries benefitting from the Generalised System of Preferences programme that permitted Indian imports on concessionary terms. And abruptly terminated the then ongoing project for Indian production of the GE 414 fighter jet engine.
True, his deputy NSA Matt Pottinger, mindful of the growing threat from China, tried hard to prevent the Trump Admin from dumping on India — central to the US plans for the Indo-Pacific. And he may return in a high capacity in the 2nd Trump govt. And, unlike the Biden Admin which seeks to have Ukraine fight to the last Ukrainian, Trump is honest enough to want no skin in the Ukraine War and has repeatedly asserted that he would stop aid to Kyiv and pull out of NATO, affording Putin a clear run in Europe, should he chooose to do so. The American humourist Christopher Buckley cruelly mocked Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) electoral base in his satire — Make Russia Great Again, an absolutely hilarious read but uncomfortably close to ground reality! But given how deeply Trump is disliked in America outside the 35% of the population he can rely on, hoisting him as a hero for surviving a kill attempt won’t assuage them, especially women appalled by his extreme views undermining liberal values and norms, including especially on abortion and access to means of contraception (birth control pills, etc). So, his chances in the US general elections are iffy at best, even if the doddering Biden at odds with his own molting Democratic Party, are contriving to hand the elections on a plate to Trump and his Republican Party.
How will Modi’s playing peacemaker in Ukraine as many here are urging, in the event, in any way serve India’s national interest? It won’t win any points with Trump — because he’s already with Putin! And as regards, the Biden dispensation, New Delhi’s exercising strategic autonomy has already gotten up Washington’s nose — as the US plenipotentiary Eric Garcetti untactfully made clear, putting the Modi govt on notice not to subject the Ukraine war to — laugh out aloud!! — ”cynical calculations”. Come again Mr Ambassador? Please explain how Indian realism is cynicism, and US cynicism (re;Ukarine, say) is realism? So, may be those who think India has more traction in Washington than is the case should hold off. Because if Biden or the Democrats return to power as may happen — they are already mad, they will get madder still. As far as they are concerned, India with this offer is only salting the American wound with Indian defiance.
[Old good friends]
And, such Ukraine do-gooding intent won’t sit easy with Putin either. It is one thing to smile and shrug off good friend Modi’s banal evocations of Ukrainian children being killed in a Russian missile strike, and quite another thing to have a Third World busybody poking his nose into what Moscow takes more seriously than New Delhi ever has — geopolitics, geostrategics, the imperatives of geography and the need for a chain of buffer states to check the adversarial encroachment in its near-abroad — its exclusive sphere of influence. Stalin understood that, and strongarmed Roosevelt and Churchill into conceding entire Eastern Europe at the 1945 summit of the Allies in Yalta as a buffer, a strong cordon sanitaire. What’s Crimea and the Donbas region of Ukraine in comparison?
But between Putin and Washington’s warnings issued by Garcetti, Modi is actually in a hard place. India still has leverage with US and Russia because both see it as strategically “indispensable” to containing/ handling China. But his colleague manning MEA, Jaishankar, will now have to begin earning his ministerial keep. So far he has gotten away largely by being facile, though his most memorable take alluding to the Ukraine war — “Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems” uttered at the Global Security Conference in Bratislava in 2022, was on point, and stunning in its effect. But that effect was diluted with his follow on view that “But this idea that I do a transaction – I come in one conflict because it will help me in conflict two. That’s not how the world works.” Unfortunately, that’s exactly how the world works! Particularly because he had in mind India’s differences with China — and India would like nothing better than to have both the US and Russia assisting it to take Beijing on. Isn’t that the whole game right now? Or, am I missing something?
So, Jaishankar will have in fact to backtrack rhetoric-wise, because in reality India has gone some distance in servicing the military needs of these two powers — signing with Russia this year a logistics support accord of the kind signed with the US in 2016 as a quid pro quo, in transactional mode. So videsh mantriji, keep your eye on the ball!
[India and Persia a.k.a. Iran — still older friends?]
But if the itch to play peacemaker is irresistible, Modi has a better chance of success were he to get Iran into an entente with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, thereby also bridging the sunni-shia divide and winning the gratitude of the Islamic world in the bargain. The one truly tremendous foreign policy achievement Modi will be long remembered for is how he has transformed India’s relations with countries in the Arabian Peninsula, ranging from Saudi Arabia at one end to Oman and Muscat at the other end. At home in his carryings on, Modi sports a stern and severe persona. Abroad, he slips easily into his ‘Hail Fellow Well Met’ demeanour, winning over world leaders of every background and description. It is a talent no Indian Prime Minister outside of Jawaharlal Nehru has displayed. There’s not a single international or regional leader who seems to have escaped coming under his thrall. It might be as much calculation on their parts, as it is on Modi’s, but getting UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to authorise the building of a Hindu temple in Dubai is more than just a gesture of friendship. It is UAE signing up with India for a larger strategic purpose. And combined with Saudi ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Sultan’s decision to invest in the $44 billion oil refinery and petrochemicals complex in Ratnagiri on the Maharashtra coast, indicates a serious India-Saudi-UAE strategic triad in the offing.
Considering UAE has already made overtures to Tehran, Modi’s jumping in at this moment in time as the diplomatic medium to get Iran, now under a new reformist management of a heart surgeon, Dr Masoud Pezeshkian, to agree to a peace conference with Saudi Arabia and UAE, and thereafter constituting a peace council to sustain amicable relations all round and to interface with the US and the West, would be a master stroke. The agreement for Chabahar port signed last fortnight is the wedge to get Tehran on board. And depending on how these forums fare, New Delhi could later cajole Israel into this combine as well. With India keeping its hand in, it could emerge as a hugely consequential regional entity. This is a deal Modi can crown his diplomacy with.
This is far easier for Modi to do than for him to muck around — even if he is so inclined — in Ukraine and getting his fingers burned. Because let’s be clear Russia has won, and will keep what it has annexed and considers integral to Russia — the three oblasts (administrative regions) of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk habited by Russian-speaking people and declared by Moscow as merged into the Russian union. That’s a done deal, and there’s nothing, but nothing realistically the US and West-supported Zelensky regime in Kyiv can do about it. Except make peace with Putin. On Putin’s terms.
Security Wise 
and as the shias and the sunnis voted him to power this time in 2024, while he has been gladly licking and thriving on katar ka butur for last five years. by the way is everyone back from katar or there is still one left there and licking golden butur there, any update on the grand diplomacy success of mian jai sheikh unker?
Who’s your better alternative again? I keep asking, and only hear crickets.
Professor, both US and India are masters of Realpolitik. What will determine who bends to whom and when will be based on who has greater relative power. India will neither mediate in Ukraine nor in Iran if it doesn’t suit its interests. The U.S. will try to contain India as it grows more powerful. It will also use India’s help to contain China. India will try to use every distraction the U.S. has with China to grow its influence. That is plain obvious. Everything else is just noise.
.@BharatKarnad, professor, as you told bridging between middle east and gulf countries, which would be absolutely open position for long lasting relationships with these countries due to recently, US have been already dumped by Saudi Arabia and now they are very much keen to join hands with china, Which is already a serious matter nowadays.
and specifically China, they have already brokered a deal between Iran as (Shia) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni) on March 10th of 2023. Now China thinks more ahead of Russia and US combine.
My question still is, when we will think of our own interest rather than chasing the goals set by West or East?
and Dr karnad, is this is a time to officially engage with Taiwan as you said openly, not hiding behind in any whatsoever veil.?
Yes, we are late, but should recognise Taiwan right away, and Tibet should be referred officially only as “CHINESE OCCUPIED TIBET”, as I have been advocating
How is that possible? To my info, former BJP PM Vajpayee has given China in writing some statement along the line that Tibet is a part of China – how can Modi retract that? Also, on several occasion, ex- FS Kanwal Sibal has said to all and sundry, “we have said Tibet belongs to China” (ref IDR article). I guess, all these were meant to douse the fear in the mind of Indians of a Chinese attack in the north.
A sovereign country can resile from any position it has taken on any issue at any time for any reason. There’s no “how can” to it. The question is that of WILL.
logistic support with Russia is already signed? Per news its still pending on India side to sign it.
Just a formality
This is worth reading;
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/infamous-donald-trump-golden-shower-video-probably-does-exist-says-christopher-steele/ZMKPDC2Y3JLIAOWSTI2C6R4R5E/
An excerpt from the aforementioned;
A tape of former Donald Trump allegedly confessing that he enjoys being peed upon during sex (or watching others do so) “probably does exist”, according to former British intelligence agent and Russian specialist Christopher Steele, despite the former US president’s repeated objections that it doesn’t.
According to Steele – who compiled 17 intelligence reports in 2016 that concluded the Russian Government has been “cultivating, supporting and assisting” Trump for years.
Trump is in Putin’s pocket and this so called assassination attempt on Trump was nothing but a staged drama by Trump to gain sympathy and plenty of votes in the forthcoming US presidential elections.
From Commodore Jawahar Bhagwat, IN (Ret)
Jawahar Bhagwat
To:bharat karnad
Tue, 16 July at 1:09 pm
Dear Sir,
Thank you for sharing.
For reflection:
While visiting Austria, recently, Prime Minister Modi spoke yet again about the prevalence of despondency, despair and hopelessness in India till 2014 and how the situation changed for better only after he and his party, BJP, got the mandate that year to rule the country.
Jawaharlal Nehru, he forgot, had played a key role in Austria’s independence.Austrians had reached out to him in the early 1950s for help restoring Austria’s sovereignty and freeing it from the occupation forces of the Soviet Union, Britain, France and the US following the defeat of Germany in World War II. Germany had annexed Austria in 1938 under the ‘Anschluss’.
Nehru as a world statesman with his foreign policy anchored in nonalignment fascinated Austria’s leaders. Therefore, they approached him in 1953 to intercede on their behalf and convince the Soviet Union that Austria was ready to pledge its neutrality through a provision in its Constitution. This paving the way for the Allied occupation forces to leave Austria on signing a treaty so as to enable it to secure its freedom and independence. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer – in the presence of Modi – recalled the crucial role played by Nehru for the freedom of his country and said,
“There was standstill in 1953, the situation was difficult, it was difficult to make progress with the Soviet Union. It was Foreign Minister Gruber (of Austria) who contacted Prime Minister Nehru, asking for support in the negotiations to bring them to a positive conclusion. This is what happened. India helped Austria and in 1955 the negotiations came to a positive conclusion with the Austrian State Treaty.”
In fact, it was left to Chancellor Nehammer to remind everyone of the role played by Nehru and India regaining Austria’s independence.
Bruno Kreisky, who served as Austria’s Chancellor from 1970-83 glowingly recalled Nehru in 1989 in these words: “When the history of this century is written, and that of the men who have put their stamp on it one of the greatest and finest chapters will be the story of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. It will be a part of India’s most modern history……. Very early Nehru had become one of my instructors…”
Kreisky has stated in a major essay authored by him he “….recorded how, at Foreign Minister Gruber’s instance, Nehru and the Indian statesman Krishna Menon put across to the then Soviet leadership, in a positive light, Austria’s refusal to grant military bases to foreign powers and to conclude military alliances with foreign powers”. “The developments leading to the Austrian State Treaty of 1955,” he added, “are now not just part of the history of Europe but of the spirit of independence and autonomy in international relations.”
It is instructive that in 1927 both Jawaharlal Nehru and Kreisky had first met and spoken in an International Congress of Oppressed Nationalities Against Colonialism and Imperialism held in Brussels. Kreisky that among many of the delegates from colonial countries, such as Senghor and Sukarno who actively participated in the liberation of their home countries from the yoke of colonialism, the great name at the Congress was Nehru.
It was unbecoming of india’s Prime Minister Modi – who was visiting Austria on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of commencement of diplomatic relations between the two countries – to ignore history and blow his own trumpet instead. It was thus left to the Austrian leaders to remind him of the greatness of his own country from 1950s.
Best wishes,
Jawahar
@Mr. Bhagwat- Excellent researching and very informative piece by you.
Modi had the advantage of being backed by the financial muscle of the Gujarati bania lobby since his early days.
His number 2, Amit Shah is not even a Hindu. The man is a Jain. See his profile https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/16/amit-shah-narendra-modi-right-hand-man-india
This Gujarati duo have finally met their match in Adityanath, who maintains his own private army. Modi-Shah want to remove Adityanath as the CM of U.P but don’t dare to considering Adityanath’s clout and muscle power.
Interesting days ahead.
How profound your grasp is on geostrategy and foreign policy and how beautiful your language is ! You are very readable. Eagerly awaiting your next book. My other fads since last couple of years are Pravin Sawhney and William Dalrymple. I don’t think you read or communicate with Pravin Sawhney because I don’t see both of you in each other’s writings. By the way I have ordered ‘Maritime Strategy and Continental Wars’ by Menon Rear Admiral K. Raja
well said!
https://m.thewire.in/article/security/before-celebrating-a-fall-in-jk-terror-amit-shah-would-do-well-to-look-deeper-into-the-numbers
An excerpt from the aforementioned link;
The only silver lining in the official statistics on the Jammu division was that the casualties among the police and security forces showed a 13% decline after Article 370 ceased to be in place. “While 29 personnel lost their lives and 32 others were injured in various attacks post the abrogation of Article 370, the figures stood at 33 deaths and 42 injuries from October 27, 2015 to August 4, 2019, stated the data,” read the report.
Now considering these two recent incidents;
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpwd4n2z2jdo
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/5-soldiers-critically-injured-in-encounter-with-terrorists-in-jammu-and-kashmirs-doda-6114828
The figures from the aforementioned two links (5+4=9) takes the total death of security forces to 38, which is more than the numbers mentioned in the Wire report.
Modi-Shah & Doval trio are really in a big spot of bother. Their claims of normalcy in J&K has been ripped apart completely.
A good write up by Dr. Subramanian Swamy from the year 2020;
https://sundayguardianlive.com/news/russia-not-friend-india
Dear sir,
I have been fortunate enough to be acquainted with your brilliant expositions on National Security and Geo-Politics since a few years now. You are an asset to this country. I really do hope that your voice is heard by relevant decision makers. You are the one who has repeatedly called out & questioned our defensive strategic culture. I have seen three & four stars fading in front of your sheer brilliance though I know you are above that. Eagerly waiting for your new book for the last one year. If only you could oblige with a bit of timeline for that.
Regards.
Aman@ — Thank you for your interest. Yes, my next book is over-due. The older I get the more difficult it is I find to finish books.
But, hopefully, in the next several months I should do so. Assuming all goes well, I expect HarperCollins to release it in 2025.
Thanks a lot for replying & update sir.
Please grace us with a little bit of YouTube appearance also, if possible. It’s been a long time.
Mr. Karnad stop flogging a dead horse. Modi is nobody at the global stage. Just grabbing everyone in a tight embrace doesn’t make the person your best buddy.
Shia-Sunni rift will never get fixed. Look what happened in Oman yesterday when a Shia mosque was attacked resulting in numerous casualties.
The American establishment has decided to teach Modi a lesson.
CIA is providing loads of clandestine support to militants in J&K to keep the place ignited.
This is Yankees gift to Modi for plotting an assassination on the American soil and getting too close to Putin.
Slightly off topic, Dr. Karnad, but assuming Trump wins, China will move on Taiwan, based on Trump’s officially stated policy off keeping off conflicts around the world. Trump actually has said that the United States is not under obligation to protect Taiwan.
If China takes Taiwan, they will be able to mobilize the military resources on the Taiwan front against India. So from India’s POV, we want a party in America who will wage war against China, and Trump is not that person.
It’s looking like it’s a matter of when, not if, China will attack India.
Girish@ — No, the US will not allow China to takeover Taiwan. Read prospective VP Vance’s views on China, etc. Moreover, should Taiwan face PLA invasion, it’ll be scorched earth. China will gain nothing by way of the island nation’s chips/semiconductor factories, etc. And whether China attacks India has nothing whatsoever to do with Taiwan’s future.
An excellent analysis;
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/16/india-china-modi-stalemate-election-concessions/
An excerpt;
Modi is running out of options and his recent tactics only demonstrate a lack of imagination in breaking the impasse with Xi.
He is being forced to make concessions to Beijing while remaining constrained by his own choices.
A peaceful and normal relationship between the world’s two most populous countries looks unlikely anytime soon.
Mr. Karnad what’s your opinion about this write up?
https://forceindia.net/cover-story/the-illusion/
True, Vajpayee formally signed Tibet away. Explored this topic at length in my 2015 (Why India Is Not a Great Power (Yet)) and 2018 (Staggering Forward) books. But as a sovereign country, India can withdraw from that agreement,. This is more doable than Sawhney thinks.
Email from Vice Admiral RN Ganesh (Retd), former FOCINC, Southern Naval Command
RN Ganesh
Sat, 20 July at 8:34 am
Thanks, Bharat. Enjoyed reading every sentence of this article, couched in inimitable Karnad-ese!
Modi as a Kissinger is a great idea.
Regards
Since becoming the country’s P.M, Modi has created mistrust and tensions between Hindu-Muslims, Hindu-Christians etc.
And you expect him to be the peacemaker in Ukraine and Middle East. Heights of delusion on your part, Mr. Karnad.
Poorest people of UP (who maybe poorest people on planet earth) voted against Modi’s Socialism. BJP won in Bihar and Orissa because people there were fed-up with Biju and Nitish’s Socialism. The 2024 verdict is a clear cut message from people of India. But Modi shows no sign of giving up on Socialism.
RSS was founded in 1920s because brahmins had lost their legendary grip over hindu society. Modi and RSS’s venom/vendetta against Muslims is just a coincidence. Modi barks about 1000 years of slavery. But What did Modi’s or RSS’s forefathers were doing for the past 1000 years. They did not do anything. They were quite comfortable with muslim yoke.
When muslims lost power in 1740s to Marathas, there was a muslim religio-political backlash in the form of Shah Waliullah and others. But there was no Brahminical or Hindu reform movement in 12th century when Muslims were able to establish their empires in India. Brahminical backlash came after 1850s, when middle class hindus became attracted to western education and ways. The main purpose of RSS is to establish their utopia of casteism which existed before Battle of Plassey.
Economic reforms of 1991 were the real reason for the Modi’s stunning victory in 2014. But RSS was dead against those economic reforms and punished Vajpayee for continuing onto do economic reforms.
Why RSS is pro-socialism, despite the fact that Socialism in itself is quite a progressive idea ?
The main purpose of RSS is to take Hindu society to were it was before british era or to atleast keep it were it is. In Socialism, the people are dependent upon state’s freebies. The society remains the way it is. Manufacturing revolution in India will permanently change the culture and society. If India becomes a manufacturing giant like china, then casteism in India will decrease (something which RSS is against).
At present I do not see any hope in India. I hope Modi looses his mass appeal among Hindu middle Class.
seems under US pressure modi is visiting ukraine. The country which always opposed to india
people are saying US is behind Bangladesh unrest, any idea if this is true?
There may also be China’s hand in BD — Beijing didn’t care for Sheikh Hasina pulling away, and getting close to India. But no foreign hand can exploit a bad situation that’s not been first created by the political leader.
do you think if can similar can be orchestrated in india by foreign hands?
Sure!
From what I’m reading and watching, the U.S. is the driver of these events in Bangladesh. It is playing covert warfare with India. Makes India’s relationship with the U.S. more difficult to manage. Indian response could include a detente with China. It’s quite a mess, but that’s what multi polarity is.
Sir, what are your views on the recent goings-on in Bangladesh? Is the date – August 5 – significant?
Unaware of any significance of Aug 5. It is a pity that Hasina, who started out as a relative moderate, let power ove the years go to her head.
The spillover effects of regime change will be bad for India.