[Rafale in IAF]
Intrigued to find an op/ed with the title “Drawing borders in the air” in the Indian Express (1 July 2024) by Air Marshal Diptendu Choudhury (Retd). The title evoked for me the writings of Lt Gen Francis Tuker, commander of the famed 4th Indian Division in the Allied 8th Army in the Maghreb in World War Two who, in 1945, framed “Icarian” India’s military future in terms of its “air boundaries” stretching from the Australian Isthmus across the Indian Ocean to North Africa.
Disappointed, that the piece turned out to be just a pitch for more French Rafale fighter aircraft.
Conceived in the mid-1970s as a follow-on to the Mirage 2000, the Dassault Avions Rafale is among the top end of 4.5 generation combat planes, but strictly 20th century vintage. India signed up for 36 of these in 2015 but that deal was, as I had warned in 2013, the first small numbers buy that proved to be the proverbial foot in the door for France to sell not just lots more of these progressively antiquated fighter aircraft over time to the Indian Air Force, but also of the carrier aircraft Rafale-Marine for the Indian Navy. It is the purchase of 114 additional planes for the air force Choudhury was making a case for, at a time when several 6th gen combat aircraft projects are underway — because they are so damned exorbitantly expensive — as consortia undertakings in Europe (including France), and as separate Boeing and Lockheed programmes for what the US Air Force calls the NGAD (New Generation Air Defence) aircraft — that the Pentagon hasn’t yet committed to. Perhaps, because all manned aerial weapons platforms, as fighting systems go, are already OBSOLETE! As Rahul Gandhi said (in another context) — Ta Ta, Good Bye!
Long range drone swarms on sorties, controlled in a fused lateral (drone to drone, drones to command drone, or d-swarm command pilot in aircraft with drones as “wingmen”), and air-to-ground communications web, in a mix with ballistic and cruise missiles, will likely constitute the composite forces of tomorrow. Actually, the pilot in the kill chain is already absolutely redundant. But the air forces in wealthy countries of the West, and more guardedly in Russia and China, are combining with their aerospace industries — perhaps, for one last time! — to indulge the fighter-jock communities in their midst with the 6th gen planes! This is so, as I have long maintained, because the US, European countries, and now China can — if it comes to it — afford their follies. Can India? Apparently, yes, going by the Indian von Richthofens!
Choudhury listed four main reasons for the extra Rafale in IAF livery. Firstly, that there are the Chinese J-20s — described by him as “fifth generation stealth fighters” stationed in Xigatze, that in tandem with the lurking J-10s are ready to do India harm. J-10s are Chinese copies of the Israeli Lavi — its schematics and tech purchased from Israel in the 1980s when the US compelled Tel Aviv to buy its F-16s at the expense of the locally designed and developed Lavi, forcing the Israel Aerospace Industries to sell Lavi tech to the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation to amortise its costs. Secondly, that it will help the IAF maintain an asymmetric force advantage. Thirdly, as a bridging, multirole, force between the current obsolescing fleet of Su-30s, MiG-29s and Mirage 2000s and the future IAF fleet of AMCA (advanced medium combat aircraft), Tejas Mk 1A and Tejas Mk-II, that will take another decade before it becomes operational. And finally, that it will “reduce dependence” on Russia and “prevent” relying on a “temperamental” US.
Brief counters:
There’s NO such thing as a STEALTH aircraft. Indeed, there’s no aircraft that cannot be detected by low frequency radar — a World War Two invention! A few years back, some may recall newspapers reported the Chandigarh air station (or some such thing) crowing it had detected a PLAAF J-20. Yea, well. It is an untested, unproven, aircraft. And J-10 is a longer, heavier, less agile Lavi because Chengdu put in a Russian AL-31 jet engine. (The prospective Lavi Pratt & Whitney power plant being inaccessible to it.)
India has no symmetric or asymmetric force advantage on the LAC that the PLAAF cannot correct in short order by flying in large numbers of aircraft from mainland bases. Even so, the current strength IAF aircraft mix will be able to handle for some time to come even large numbers of Chinese aircraft off Tibetan plateau bases because the Chinese planes taking off from high altitude bases, will be severely handicapped, hoist with the optimum fuel load-weapon load dilemma that IAF aircraft taking off from the plains won’t face.
As a bridging fleet, Su-30 MKIs would fare better operationally and economically: On a full weapon load basis, for the cost of two Rafales with various onboard missiles — Mica A2A (air-to-air), short range Hammer A2G (air to ground), Scalp cruise A2G, and the long range A2A Meteor, IAF can acquire FIVE Su-30s rated by many renowned international aviation experts as presently the best air dominance fighter. Manohar Parrikar — arguably the best defence minister the country has ever had, was no fool when he chose the Su-30MKI option instead of Rafale (and, for his troubles, was shunted back to Goa!)
Eliminating Russia and the US from the supply side of the Indian demand side aircraft procurement economics makes ample sense only if the savings are funnelled into the indigenous AMCA, Tejas 1A, Mk-2 programmes, and not carted to France to sustain its aerospace sector into the future, as the Air Marshal recommends. He also suggests the IAF rely on France for its future aviation needs because, reading between the lines, he doesn’t think the Tejas line or the AMCA will amount to much! May be, he thinks France is immune to American arm-twisting. If so think again! (Then again, who in IAF wants to miss out on repeat visits to Paris to negotiate the deal for the additional Rafale?!)
Choudhury is rooted in the here and now, displaying no concern about the Artificial Intelligence-driven autonomous weapons direction, tech-wise, that warfare is taking. Living with the comfortable certainties of manned platforms of the past is all very well for retired Air Marshals to do as a pastime, except it reflects the Air HQ’s thinking and could be the Indian Air Force’s death knell. For the Modi government to accept such counsel will only confirm the view that, where national security is concerned, it doesn’t know what it is doing.
Security Wise 
Professor, until India develops its own jet engine, these shenanigans will keep playing out. The Tejas program is dependent on the U.S., and my take is that the Rafale is a stop gap measure to fill in the numbers gap. Until a suitable Kaveri engine is developed, India will be at the mercy of other countries for fighter jets. Which one? Take your pick. The Rafale is as good as any other.
Too true on the Kaveri. But, why pick the most expensive option?
Well, for the reason that getting another U.S. fighter is not an option. That leaves French or Russian (typhoon and Saab are out as it just makes logistics more complex). Maybe add more Su-30s? Too much reliance on Russia? Inferior weapons package? That’s what the choice seems to be.
Su-30 from all accounts is a fantastic flying platform that can have weapons integrated from anywhere.
Prof Karnad, I request your analysis and commentary on the following:
https://www.arktosjournal.com/p/the-moscow-delhi-axis
The Moscow-Delhi Axis
by Alexander Dugin
JUL 09, 2024
Alexander Dugin argues that the Moscow-Delhi axis is one of the most crucial supporting frameworks of a multipolar world order.
Modi and Putin are currently defining the structure of the Moscow-Delhi axis, one of the most crucial pillars of a multipolar world order. Bharat (also known as India) is a state-civilization. Russia-Eurasia is another state-civilization. Clarifying their relations in terms of geopolitics, economics, and culture is fundamental.
We are all now learning to think in multipolar terms, which is a nonlinear system.
Empirically, I have developed a hypothesis: for the stability of a multipolar system, each pole should have no more than one main opponent. If our main opponent is the West, all other poles should be allies. This principle should guide all others in forming their alliances. Only those who aim to be global hegemons and seek to establish a unipolar dominance can afford to have more than one opponent. However, this will ultimately lead to their downfall.
From a pragmatic standpoint, it is crucial for the hegemon to ensure that other poles have more than one opponent, preferably excluding the West. This strategy makes it easier to control such poles.
India has issues with China and, to a lesser extent, with the Islamic world (mainly through Pakistan, but not exclusively). This drives India closer to the West, with which it also has historical grievances (such as colonialism). Therefore, India needs to understand the logic of multipolarity more clearly, and Russia, with which India has no conflicts, can greatly assist in this.
Russia is currently on the front line of the conflict with the hegemon, making the construction of multipolarity and the promotion of its philosophy our natural mission.
(translated by Constantin von Hoffmeister)
A succinct and correct take on Indo-Russian relations. Thanks for cueing me to it.
Time to train Indian army in dandaa and pathaar warfare (sticks and stones), isn’t this how they fought their last one night war with the Chinese back in 2020?
UPA had already done that…Remember the Army in J&K were instructed to use sling shots aginst AK47 weilding terrorists and stone pelting mobs….
“There’s NO such thing as a STEALTH aircraft. Indeed, there’s no aircraft that cannot be detected by low frequency radar …” –
The detection technology of military aircraft in the sky falls under Electronic Warfare (e.g. ELINT) and Radar Warning Receivers (RWR) are used. It is a “passive” operation. I fail to see what low frequency radar beams have to do with it. AWACS do not use radars for this purpose. When you want to estimate the range of the target (or track the target) after detection which is an “active” operation, you will need the Radar Receiver (RR) with its own transmitter which will have its carrier frequency – that is where the frequency comes into play. The technology and operation of RWRs and RRs are entirely different. In the state-of-the-art fighter aircraft, the modern trend has been to “fuse” these two technologies. To my information Rafales supplied to IAF initially did not have these although the French promised. Whether this has been done subsequently, I do not know.
There is also the technology of the “passive radar” in vogue in the US which is based on deploying spectrum analyzers distributed all around the area. It is elaborate and very expensive to operate. Very little information is available in the open literature.
Email from Vice Admiral KN Sushil (Retd), former FOCINC, Southern Naval Command
Sushil Nair
Wed, 3 July at 6:52 pm
The dilemma that the Indian Armed forces face is understanding change …change that technologies bring to sustain the cutting edge. Since most of the time a service spends is in making a case ..that will justify to the bureaucrat that the system in question is the best that money can buy. In this exercise he has to forcibly notch down abstract arguments to something tangible and how that system is “proven” in the host countries.
If the armed forces have to get anything at all sanctioned the case cannot cross the threshold of understanding of the bureaucracy.
As always, on point, Admiral.
Email from Dr V Siddhartha, former Science & Technology Adviser to the Defence Minister
V Siddhartha
Wed, 3 July at 6:53 pm
Re: ” For the Modi government to accept such counsel will only confirm the view that, where national security is concerned, it doesn’t know what it is doing.”
Regretfully, that is so.
Additionally, for Modi to retain as his S&T minister [the clueless] Jitendra Prasad, will only confirm the view that, where S&T is concerned, “he doesn’t know what he is doing.”
VS
Dr Karnad are there any books that you recommend which are about British Imperial Policy of Defence and Strategy vis-à-vis India. The conceptualization of “The Mongolian Fringe” By the India Office of Britian ,Distant Defence , Tuker’s “India’s Air Boundaries” and other such Imperial -era policies/ideas are neither researched nor discussed by our policy makers, strategists or the various think tanks that have mushroomed in India in recent times, even though they might hold rich dividends for contemporary India
foodomtery@ — ‘The Mongolian fringe’ was India Foreign Secretary in the 1930s Olaf Caroe’s concept. It was analysed in detail in my lead chapter ‘India’s weak geopolitics and what to do about it” in the 1994 book of essays edited by me and published by Penguin — Future Imperilled: India’s Security in the 1990s and Beyond. Tuker’s Icarian India and other far seeing concepts deconstructed in my book — Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy, published by Macmillan India, 1st edition in 2002, 2nd ed in 2005. As far as I know, these are the only two books that have dealt with geopolitical strategies of ‘distant defence’ of the British Raj in detail, especially with relevance to post-1947 India. Have a look at them.
I have read Future Imperilled .Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security is next on my reading list.
You may also care to read my 2015 book — Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet) for a more detailed expostulation of the ‘distant defence’ animated architecture outlined in Future Imperilled. Also, suggest you get hold of the 1998 book – Maritime Strategy and Continental Wars by Rear Admiral K. Raja Menon, the finest sailor-scholar the Indian Navy has produced, for many, many insights. Happy reading!
Thank you Dr Karnad !
Email from Vice Admiral Satish Soni (Retd), former FOCINC, Eastern Naval Command
Satish S
To:bharat karnad
Sat, 6 July at 6:20 am
Thank you sir.
You really shake up people.
Pleasure to read you.
Satish
You are right Dr. Karnad, recently Qatari officials had visited India to sell their old 12 mirage 2000 and IAF officials said that we need those jets for stop gap solution for old MiGs. Have they lost their damn mind to buy old technology jets to replace old relics like MiGs…..this is ridiculous……IAF doesn’t know that old migs can also be replaced by our home designed Tejas for stop gap solution. I know I am not a military strategist and don’t have an understanding about air warfare but going with foreign technology will always neglect or kill our domestic industry.
@Behera- India has to buy Qatari old junk at highly inflated prices. This is part of the deal to release Indian ex-navy personnel, who were caught spying in Qatar for Mossad and were given death sentences by the Qatari authorities.
May be you are right,…our so called government will never disclose any facts about why they are purchasing old crap from outside and on What deal.?..
@BharatKarnad What should India then do? Buy more Sukhoi Su-30 MKIs?
VGanesh@ — as a bridging move, yes.
@BharatKarnad By as a bridging move, do you mean buying more Sukhoi Su-30 MKIs so that those numbers help reach the Indian Air Force [IAF] reach the number of squadrons that it is supposed to have?
If yes, do you think the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP]-led National Democratic Alliance [NDA] government will do so going by the performance of the Soviet Union/USSR/Russian-origin military hardware in the Russia-Ukraine War?
VGanesh@ — the 42 squadron number is a dated requirement IAF is holding on to for dear life. And the quality of Russian hardware seems to be a red herring to me. Hardware sourced to which country has fared well in Ukraine? None!
@BharatKarnad Is it true that the then-Government of the Russian Federation [GoRF] pleaded with the then-Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP]-led National Democratic Alliance [NDA] government to buy the Sukhoi Su-30 MKIs because the politicians in Russia at that time needed funds to fight the elections?
Vganesh@ — Narasimha Rao govt in mid-‘1990s rescued the Sukhoi production line from shutting down by giving Russia Rs 6,000 crores!
@BharatKarnad Is it true that the competition for the 114 Multi-Role Medium-Weight Fighter Aircraft [MRMWFA] is a foregone conclusion because of the below-mentioned reasons:
Unlikely IAF will add to the existing liability of a diverse inventory, which’s a logistics nightmare, with an altogether new and different aircraft.
@BharatKarnad Do you know who and how was the requirement of 42 squadrons come up with? What should be the ideal squadron strength of the Indian Air Force [IAF]?
JRD Tata Committee in the 1960s (post ’62 War).
@BharatKarnad Why is that the Indian Navy [IN] and the Indian Air Force [IAF] are hesitant to buy US-origin fighter jets/combat aircraft like in the case of the Boeing F/A-18 E/F SuperHornet and the Lockheed Martin F-21 because of the alleged reason that the Pakistani Air Force [PAF] also uses the Lockheed Martin F-16 but have no problems in buying US-origin military hardware like attack helicopters/helicopter gunships even which too are used by the Pakistani Armed Forces’?
Isn’t it baffling because among the reasons cited, including the one above is that the US is unreliable and imposes too many ifs-and-buts on the use of its military hardware and these could pose problems for the Indian Armed Forces’?
Going by all that has been stated above, doesn’t it put all the US-origin military hardware in the arsenal of the Indian Armed Forces’ at risk of manipulation and sabotage by the Government of the USA [GoUSA] were India-USA relations to fare badly going by recent incidents like the alleged plot to assassinate the US-Canadian Sikh Khalistani terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun?
@BharatKarnad Do you think that the US-China rivalry is a golden opportunity for India to milk as much US-origin military hardware and military technology from the US now that it is dependent on India to counter China?
Dr karnad, buying more SU 30 MKI’s from Russia in this current situation war with Ukraine would attract sanctions against India from west? Or is Russia in that state to deliver more Sukhoi’s when they are already low on fighter aircraft due to war?
The Russian defence industry is on a war footing now and meeting its own requirements. Su 30s, if indented for, won’t be that difficult for IAF to secure.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pm-narendra-modi-vladimir-putin-meeting-russia-agrees-to-discharge-all-indians-recruited-by-its-army-ukraine-war-101720495706439.html
What’s this nonsense? These Indians fighting for the Russian army are doing it to get a good amount as salary besides a Russian passport. Why Modi is jeopardizing their future?
watch it from 2:51 to 4:01
Vladimir putin ex-KGB officer now as president of Russia knows about our population concerns but our prime minister is clueless.
Russia is just using our unemployed population in Ukraine war for stop gap solution due to high rate of casualties of Russian forces.
putin knows that in India, unemployment is a big concern with Indian government failure to provide employment to desperate people and this is the opportunity to encash it.
@Professor Karnad
A propos the just concluded Mod-Putin meeting in Moscow, it seems there are two radically different conclusions (almost contradictory) by higher officials of the Indian State have been presented: one in the analysis by two retired Foreign Secretaries of MEA, and the second one by MKB who has served in Russia as an Indian diplomat. These are: https://www.indiatoday.in/programme/news-today/video/what-is-the-signal-from-modi-putin-meet-experts-share-insights-2564558-2024-07-09
https://www.indianpunchline.com/india-russia-ties-take-a-quantum-leap-in-the-fog-of-ukraine-war/
I am completely at a loss which one to accept although I tend to go with ex-FS Kanwal Sibal. I have a feeling that Modi has caved in on western pressure.
Since this event is going to shape India’s trajectory as a nation state in the world at large, it will be of great interest if you could give your own assessment (or write a new column elaborating on this development).
@BharatKarnad, professor what about S-400 system purchased from Russia. Is there any chance it can shoot down our rafale jets in friendly fire on the battlefield? is french rafale jets are compatible with Russian S-400 system? Or simply we are ended up with nightmare that we would never see both rafale and S-400 together in the battlefield near future?
The ‘signature” of all aircraft in IAF will be fed into the FCS of S-400. So, no chance of a friendly fire mishap.
As usual an article with little substance and more of a personal attack on an officer who has served for over 40 years. Survival of unmanned systems or rather lack of it in contested airspace has been seen in recent conflicts including Houthis shooting down MQ9Bs. Rafale and Su 30 not in same category. One is a heavy weight fighter and other in medium category. They complement each other and balance the force ratio. I would suggest you stick to your area of expertise which frankly no one remembers anymore and leave the strategy to more current thinkers!
Jaspreet@ — Criticising what Air Marshal Chaudhury WROTE in a newspaper op/ed is NOT a personal attack, unless you can’t make out the difference. The heavy, medium, light categories for combat aircraft, I have long argued — even in this blog if you peruse the posts on IAF, is spurious. So don’t go there.
“… contested airspace …” – this is a vague, imprecise statement. Which height range from ground level are you referring to in the context, can you specify?
Also, to your information, Sukhois or Rafales operation in air battle is controlled by radars in different frequency bands. Radars do not operate in close proximity of the ground level. i.e. only beyond a certain elevation they will have success. Your conclusion does not make sense scientifically.
Professor Karnad !
Your response is awaited. Thank you.
Gagandeep@ —
So, your solution is to buy a humungously expensive aircraft to go up against drones that cost a fraction of a fraction! LoL
Incidentally, stealth aircraft are visible to adversary aircraft coordinating their radars in flight, the stealth ac turns on its afterburners, etc.
If India can produce Tejas Mark II by 2028, even 2030, there is no need to go for such a costly aircraft. But the harsh fact is it won’t fly without the engines. In that case we have to bite the bullet and go for Rafale. You cannot pit Su-30MKI with an RCS of 15-20M2 against a quality stealth aircraft especially when they are sitting even on Super Sukhoi upgrades since last one decade.
Rafale is a REALLY costly option any which way it is looked at. But agree on Tejas-II
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@BharatKarnad Dassault Aviation is allegedly reluctant to transfer the technology used to build parts of its Dassault Aviation Rafale fighter jet.
The Government of India [GOI] on the other hand wants a vendor who will build the fighter jet in India.
So, do you think India will buy the Lockheed Martin F-21 since for the past many years they’ve been saying that if they get an order for more than 100 fighter jets, they’ll set up a factory in India to manufacture them?
Yea, things are up in the air!
@BharatKarnad So, the Government of India [GOI] will buy the Lockheed Martin F-21 for the Indian Air Force [IAF] for sure???!!!
So, you haven’t you seen the TOI story of India going in for production of Su-30s.
@BharatKarnad I’m coming to know of this from you.
.@BharatKarnad, Professor, Is it true that Boeing is nothing but running an government facility provided especially by US government, which is a very beautiful example of Public private partnership in defence industry?
Yes. This is the model integrating pvt and public defence industry I advocated for India in my 2015 book — Why India Is Not a Great Power (Yet)