My last book — Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition, published in 2018 by Penguin in time for the 2019 general elections was prophetic in many respects. Most importantly in its conclusion that reeked of disappointment with his record in office in his first term (2014-2019). Modi, I rued, was too much the statist to go in for a radical structural overhaul of the system and actually shrink the government, get it out of the economy, as he had promised to do and pave the country’s path to prosperity. This because there were precedents galore to prove that deregulating the economy, freeing it from punitive-minded government oversight, had worked rapidly to industrialise other countries and to generate mass employment — the number one social-political-economic problem confronting India.
But Modi seemed determined, instead, on replicating the success he had obtained in Gujarat by having a small group of babus around him doing his bidding. I had warned then that what worked at the state level wouldn’t work at the India level, and that proved to be the case. He squandered the opportunity to rid the system of its socialist controls, particularly on the private sector, that are baked into the thinking and functioning of the state. And, India will now level off and, alas, far from making it with sustained double-digit growth, will fall back into the 6% class that may keep the country from sinking, not lift it into the top rank.
Modi has barely made it back to power. Modi fatigue was a factor. There was a little too much of the PM in every setting, and it grated. The question is how much of his policy thrust which, in the economic sphere is in the right direction, but in foreign and defence policy fields suffers from lack of vision, of Halford Mackinder’s “map reading habit of mind”, and coherence, might be retained?
His tenure and policies hereon will be dictated by coalition imperatives. Luckily for him, the Telegu Desam leader Chandra Babu Naidu was the original modernizer, who conceived of Cyberabad as an Information Technology-Business Process Management services hub and, among politicians, has generally been ahead of the curve in using technology to improve government efficiency. Nitish Kumar somehow managed to survive the snakepit of Bihar politics for nearly two decades and might be satisfied with some cabinet post (likely Railways). These two are unlikely to impede Modi’s policies but will dampen the PM’s urges, whenever he espies political trouble, to indulge in communally polarising statements and politics.
The trouble is with this unanticipated political reverse, Modi and the ruling Bhartiaya Janata Party may just decide to play it safe and go full hog with populist policies — more freebies, more revadis, and suck the vitality and vigour right out of the economy.
But what if Naidu and Nitish heeded Sharad Pawar’s siren call and joined up with the Left-leaning opposition to bring back the perpetrators of Indira Gandhi’s kind of socialism — not Nehru’s more idealistic and harmless variety, who last ran riot during the Manmohan Singh era, now joined by the Akhilesh Yadav gang of ‘samajwadis’ whose tendencies are a strong-arm variation of Indira’s socialism that Rahul Gandhi has treatened to bring back? There will once again surface the milieu in which the public exchequer is treated as personal bank. Indira’s “garibi hatao” mantra, it may be recalled, kicked the garib into more garibi!
I am an Edmund Burke-ian conservative who ardently believes in minimal role for government in national life. I was, perhaps, the first commentator to laud Modi in 2011 (yes, that far back!) who welcomed him as a prospective Prime Minister and who, after “Rajaji” (C Rajagopalachari), Piloo Mody, and their Swatantra Party in the 1960s, offered a solid right-of-centre political alternative to the country and its people weighed down by the follies of ‘socialists’ in high places for whom socialism had delivered! For the rest, socialism has been a plague, the cause of ruination of the country. I was impressed by Modi’s 2014 campaign slogans — “less government, more governance”, “the government has no business to be in business”, etc., that pointed to the emergence of a desi Edmund Burke. I was thrilled. I had a further cause for jubilation when Modi, in 2014, ran with my 2002 “India First” concept as his lodestar for India’s foreign and military policies. It is another matter he did not follow through on it, or on his slogans.
It was a short-lived dawn.
Modi’s failure to get the government out of the economy, his reliance principally on the defence public sector units to achieve an ‘atmnirbhar Bharat’, his unwillingness, ironically, to talk about native talent and genius and the private sector, not trust them to lead the economic charge, convinced me that Modi was much less than he publicly made himself out to be, and that I had imagined him to be.
With the return full-steam to coalition politics, the slight possibility of Burke-ian conservatism flourishing in India, has died a premature death.
Security Wise 
time to bring back subramnian swamy.
Which electoral base does he have? Have you noticed his pro-China stance? He’s also a little soft on the Khalistanis
Respected Bharatji,
Indira Gandhi did something great in 1970s, despite her disasterous economic policies. She had more courage than any Indian Male. She did impose emergency and ruled like a true dictator. Although the emergency was imposed for the wrong reason and she did not do anything good during emergency.
Modi and his cohort in Gujarat have been brought down to earth with a thud. They were rude, arrogant and inaccessible to even their own party members. Now with BJP short of majority by a whopping 33 seats, they will be beggars in front of their coalition partners. Divine justice. Excellent results.
There is a word in Hindi meaning someone who is just good in talking big but no action. Modi is an example of the aforementioned.
Desi James Bond aab teraa kyaa hogaa?
Do you think if he got a clear mandate from the electorate he would have done more apart from superficial policies. Especially after farmer protest. Barring the minute middle class, rich class anyone would want to do away with socialism in whatever form it exist in the country. Also they will likely to be driven to delimitation using women reservation bill/ or caste. Given how ladly behna and all that reflected in MP.
“Fatafat” Gandhi, chomping at the bit, will have to wait. May God grant him the patience of Job. He sure needs it. India is unwieldy; it would take an epic visionary pull it out of its morass in this seemingly intractable country. “Fatafat” Gandhi would strive to bring India back to that idyllic time when women gathered in the fields for comfort and company and so there’s no need for one of the basic fundamentals in life: the toilet. India’s curse is that its coterie of leaders are afraid of leaving Indians alone to create wealth. They are fully aware that doing so would boomerang on their controls of the levers of power.
Bharat: Posted here is the definite transformative agenda. I have no hopes of it being implemented but am also convinced that without addressing these on a war footing, India shall not see the light to great power as many of us desire.
1. Incentivize private industry (through tax policy) for select manufacturing and especially IP related ventures.
Email from
Air Marshal Vinod Kumar Verma (Retd)
Thu, 6 June at 9:01 am
Terrific.
Nail on the head.
sir., With all due respect to your Burkeian Conservatism … You have to have humility to understand indian society , which is , to use Marxist jargon, a field of dialectic materialism….
to do full-blown market reform , which (again using Marxist jargon) is basically unchecked primitive capital accumulation, without public backlash — is next to impossible ..
and there are intelligent ways to do the correct thing , not necessarily by Thatcherism….
First , we need to have humility to accept this predicament
A very good composition;
https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/why-is-modi-bowing-down-to-xi-and-helping-chinas-ascendancy-2670901
The last sentence says it all up;
What is it that China has on Modi that it seems to control him and get away with impunity?
What do you make of this:
https://swarajyamag.com/world/india-should-give-political-dialogue-with-china-a-chance-former-foreign-secretary-vijay-gokhale
pls comment,Prof. Karnad.
GOI & MEA never learn.
Mr. Karnad when is your next book releasing?
Realistically, Mr Shah, sometime early 2025.
.@BharatKarnad, Professor, what is your opinion about this article below:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/make-in-india-success-runs-through-chinese-factories-manpower-what-can-the-govt-do-12803660.html
that is the reason we are always having a cold feet to take any decisive move against Chinese aggression, when it’s comes to national security?
In the article itself mentioned somewhere that it’s not possible to achieve self reliance without the help of china, unless our beloved, not trustworthy and worthless PSU’s (BHEL & BEML) learn to produce heavy machinery!
it’s ridiculous not even trusting private sector, which have done tremendous success while comes to heavy machinery and defense sector equipments like Kalyani and L&T, L&T have successfully produced nuclear powered submarine, not even conventional but nuclear powered one!
Dr. Karnad, please share your valuable opinion on above-mentioned article.
It is what I have been saying for some 15 years now. See my books and writings.
Thank you very much Dr. Karnad, I ordered yesterday two books of your i.e. “why India is not a great power yet” & “Strategic sellout- Indian US nuclear deal” is on the way.
In my life, I will always appreciate you that, “you have shown us truth regarding what our so called beloved people hide from us”.