G20 takeaway: Watch out Middle Kingdom, India is rising!

Posted on September 10, 2023 by Bharat Karnad

Global Express (New Indian Express) podcast hosted by Neena Gopal, recorded yesterday, uploaded today with Lt Gen Anil Ahuja (Retd) and yours truly

About Bharat Karnad

Senior Fellow in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, he was Member of the (1st) National Security Advisory Board and the Nuclear Doctrine-drafting Group, and author, among other books of, 'Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy', 'India's Nuclear Policy' and most recently, 'Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)'. Educated at the University of California (undergrad and grad), he was Visiting Scholar at Princeton University, University of Pennsylvania, the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC.
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19 Responses to G20 takeaway: Watch out Middle Kingdom, India is rising!

  1. Sagar says:
    September 10, 2023 at 11:09 pm

    What will be the impact of acquisition of 31 MQ-9B predator drones on indigenous drones (Tapas)? Will Tapas be relegated to secondary project due to scarcity of money as government is willing to pay approximately $3bn?

    Reply
  2. Shaurya says:
    September 11, 2023 at 1:09 am

    What comes across from your interactions with defense, administrative or political persons alike:

    1. There is no ambition to wield power and use it to further objectives beyond the bare minimum. Indeed there is little understanding of it.
    2. Fear is the over riding emotion which governs our behavior.
    3. We do not have the societal structure to harness the collective ambition of its peoples to produce the desired out comes to great power.

    Hence, many dismiss you (at least superficially) as pompous, impractical, unrealistic and such. However, they do hear you and your message sticks with them even if it takes decades to move towards your message. Keep on speaking the truth as you see them.

    BTW: A thought occurred based on your Vietnam Brahmos/arms idea, which makes eminent sense. I think, the US, if it gets its act together will make Vietnam an ally and achieve its strategic goals in the region without India. They are kicking India’s butt in mass manufacturing and are on their way to become another S. Korea.

    Best Wishes.

    Reply
  3. Amit says:
    September 11, 2023 at 7:14 am

    Professor,

    The U.S. president had a one on one with Mr. Modi and skipped the ASEAN summit, an infra deal was announced which seems to be getting good international press, and the AU is singing praises of India for getting it into the G20. Even the Russian Times, which was being critical of the G20 a few days back, has changed its tune and Lavrov is praising India. Of course, Indian media is crowing about the success, as it is wont to, but it does seem like this time, India has scored some political points.

    I’m also reading many articles in the western media about the serious economic challenges China is facing, which is prompting even Biden to say that it won’t attack Taiwan in the near future.

    My concern is whether India will take its foot of the pedal, given China’s impediments. China was truly a motivating factor in changing India’s military eco system. I just hope it continues to do so. Given the U.S. unpreparedness in defending Taiwan and chips, the U.S. won’t just abandon India till it shores up a few of its capability gaps, but that gives India a window to become self reliant in military matters. US support can vanish if China continues to struggle, and it has addressed its capability gaps.

    From what I hear from Indian military leaders, India will continue on its modernisation and self reliance path. However, there are some disturbing signs (like lack of funding for AMCA development, lack of funding for Kaveri engine development etc.), that make me suspect sarkari tarkari in action.

    Reply
  4. DEBANJAN BANERJEE says:
    September 11, 2023 at 10:05 am

    Dear Dr Karnad

    Wonderful presentation given by you as usual.
    Last month prominent defense expert Sushant Singh came up with this article on this Chinese publication (guancha.cn). (https://www.guancha.cn/SushantSingh/2023_09_09_707895.shtml)

    what Mr Sushant Singh mentions in this article is :

    1. Russia due to Western sanctions is unable to provide the Indian army about $3 Billion USD worth of military spares since there is serious disagreement between the two sides with regards to the Payment mechanism. Russia wants India to pay in the Yuan (similar to some of the oil that India has purchased from Russia with Yuan) but we are dithering on that proposal.

    2. I conclude that because of the lack of Russian spares, India will be seriously constrained when it comes to any military offensive either with China (Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh) or Pakistan (any invasion of PoK before the 2024 elections).

    Dear Dr Karnad kindly give your expert feedback on whether my conclusion is right.

    Reply
  5. Prabal Rakshit says:
    September 14, 2023 at 11:07 pm

    Prof Karnad,
    Someone is finally listening to your suggestions of a cartographic reprisal 🙂

    https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/map-of-china-as-it-really-is-ex-army-chief-mm-naravane-days-after-beijing-map-row/ar-AA1gDBXL

    Reply
  6. Amit says:
    September 17, 2023 at 5:03 pm

    Professor,

    Many of the analyses done by the Def Talks channel by Aadi (and less popularly by Lt. Gen. Shankar) on China, are becoming news weeks later globally. For example, the weakness of the Chinese economy, the high rate of unemployment, the purge of rocket force generals, etc. etc. etc. Even a 1932 map of China which shows peripheral regions as occupied by China is viral now. Top ex military officers are actively involved in writing articles and giving YouTube channel interviews.

    I see this as part of a concerted information war unleashed by the Indian military. Some of the military analyses of the Chinese navy, its rocket force etc., I’ve not seen anywhere. I used to watch such programs and read an occasional article in some U.S. think tanks like CSIS. But right now, no one is dismantling the myth of Chinese power more than the Indian military.

    India is at war with China. An information war at this point. There is no doubt about it.

    Reply
    • Mohammed Ayyashuddin says:
      September 18, 2023 at 4:21 am

      @ Amit- Armchair experts doing blah blah in media. Fight a real war then the world will see. Talks is cheap, actions count.

      As the saying in Hindi goes;

      “Khisayani Billli khamba nochey”

      Reply
      • Amit says:
        September 18, 2023 at 9:17 pm

        @Mohammed, billi khamba noch rahi hai aur khambe ka churan ho raha hai dheere dheere… kya pata shayed khamba hi gir jaaye chand dinon mein… there is power in info warfare… the very fact you are upset by it is the purpose…talk is cheap and effective sometimes! Aap bhi dekh lijiye Defence Talks by Aadi…

    • Paad Shah says:
      September 18, 2023 at 6:59 pm

      @Amit- “Top ex military officers are actively involved in writing articles and giving YouTube channel interviews”

      Ex, hahaha. Retired with a fat pension and too much time with nothing to do.

      No one take these retired retards seriously

      Reply
  7. Lucky Commando (Ex R.A.W presently Deshbhakt International Don) says:
    September 18, 2023 at 4:29 am

    Chinese defence minister Li Shangfu has been removed from his post.

    Reply
  8. Mohammed Ayyashuddin says:
    September 19, 2023 at 6:57 am

    @Amit- “there is power in info warfare…”

    Everyone knows how to play this game.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-says-credible-allegations-indian-government-involved-in-slaying-of-sikh-leader-in-b-c-1.6566740

    Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said she has ordered the expulsion of “a senior Indian diplomat.”

    Joly’s office said that diplomat is Pavan Kumar Rai, the head of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), India’s foreign intelligence agency, in Canada.

    First day of session in the new Parliament building. What an opening. The crap ballon of “Vasudev Kutambakam” has been busted so much for ‘Vishvguru’ myth.

    Reply
  9. Jaam-Baaz Jaat says:
    September 19, 2023 at 12:54 pm

    Amit this will pour water over your delusions;

    China’s economic deceleration is now a much-talked-about phenomenon. But I detected no signs of it in Shanghai’s People’s Square or Hangzhou’s main thoroughfares.

    They were buzzing as usual. I also met more Indian businessmen than before. They were looking for deals in the green energy or electric vehicle parts sectors.

    Taken from the following;

    https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/ashutosh-varshney-writes-in-china-the-challenge-of-democracy-without-elections-8945690/

    Don’t take frustrated self proclaimed arm chair China bashing experts opinion seriously.

    Reply
  10. nileshko says:
    September 19, 2023 at 8:02 pm

    Every slave thinks he’s his master’s favorite. Indians are no different. Courted by the west as a battering ram against China gives direction to their anglicized mind bereft of any native thought or understanding. America poses far bigger threat to Indian democracy by virtue of its control of important aspect of it than the Chinese could ever dream of. GOI hasn’t even established the most basic attribute of sovereignty in the 21st century as important as the national currency and standing army was to the preceding century; mainly that of digital sovereignty. Westerners are given free hand to subvert democracy by spreading disinformation through media, academia and digital channels. The latest coordinated narrative regarding canadian situation seems like a predicate to subvert upcoming elections. And yet here we are, letting ourselves be used by the westerners to cross horns with the neighbour who’s 10 times our size economically and technologically, and getting ahead of us in an accelerated pace.

    Reply
    • Faulaadi Singh says:
      September 21, 2023 at 10:41 am

      @nileshko- Very well said man. This self proclaimed Vishvguru’ even forgot his insult by the US regime when he was denied a U.S. visa in 2005.

      US is nobody’s friend. Post world war-2 it has been responsible for majority of the global geopolitical mess.

      Reply
  11. Amit says:
    September 20, 2023 at 4:45 am

    Professor,

    I’ve been thinking about several comments made by several economists (on CNBC, CSIS, Def Talks, Ruchir Sharma etc.), about the impact of the profligate investments in real estate in China. Ken Rogoff estimates that up to 30% of the economy has been invested in dead real estate due to over investment in infrastructure.

    Now, I’ve taken a few graduate economic classes but the GDP equation I’m familiar with is GDP = C+I + G + NX (consumption model). However, there is also an income model where GDP = Income + Tax (sales + property) + Depreciation + Net Foreign Factor income (I don’t have as much experience with this).

    It is this second equation that can be insightful to examine the impact of the dead real estate in China. I’ve not yet seen a clear elucidation of the impact on the Chinese economy using this equation in media yet.

    With 30% of its economy invested in useless infrastructure, anywhere between $5.4T to $2.4T (GDP size varying between $18T to $8T) is not generating any revenue for the economy. So there is no property tax on this amount and the depreciation is overstated as the value of the assets are highly overstated (actually, if there is no revenue generated, the value is zero). So the tax plus depreciation number in the GDP calculation should come down drastically in reality.

    Additionally, due to current high unemployment, national income has to be declining. So GDP should actually be declining substantially based on the income model of the GDP. Now Indian analysts are saying this is so, but no one has estimated how much the decline is. Many western economists are also saying the same thing, but no one is giving numbers.

    Wall Street is bringing down guidance of growth from 5% to 4.7% – I think the billionaire class has a vested interest in stating such high figures to preserve the investments they have made in China. But if I do a first principles analysis of GDP, there can be no growth, and only a decline. How much I can’t tell as I’m not an economic expert. But I can see that the Chinese GDP growth is being highly overstated.

    I hope some economists do a serious assessment of what Chinese real growth rates are, as to me it looks like an unmitigated disaster!

    Reply

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