[Ukrainians in an unequal fight]
Until yesterday, the Western media reported how the Ukrainian counter
offensive was galloping along, steadily pushing the Russian troops eastwards,
and how it was just a matter of time before the lead Ukrainian elements would
break through the three-tiered defensive barrier the Russian began putting up
in the autumn of 2022, and head for Melitopol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov.
How having thus affected a disjunction between the Russian forces holding the
northeastern and eastern ends and the others the south, the Ukrainian army
would exploit the tactical successes to widen the breach and, also imperil
Russian-held Crimean Peninsula and the upper part of the Russian-controlled
Donbas region, and pose a danger to the Russian ports and bases on the Azov
coast.
And then, all of a sudden, everyone in the West — governments, thinktanks,
media, seem to have run smack into the reality wall. For the first time today
the leading propagators — New York Times, Washington Post, Reuters, AP, CNN,
et al, of this American line of the Ukrainians winning that was always more
wishful thinking than hard facts, began singing a different tune. They reported
glumly that the Ukrainians had in fact made little or no progress in their
counteroffensive, that their advance is, for all intents and purposes, over
what with the Fall rains approaching that would turn much of the countryside
into slush.
Sure, Ukrainians may still create a sensation here and there by having
drones strike Moscow buildings, or missiles sink Russian warships in the Black
Sea. But on the ground, the Ukrainians are essentially stuck where they are
presently, failing to make even a dent in the Russian barrier of mines,
trenches, tank traps, anti-tank munition pits, and drone-launching posts along
what’s now the new 1,000 km long eastern border of Ukraine.
Except, this virtually impenetrable barrier erected roughly on the line
Kupiansk-Bakhmut-Donetsk-Vuhledar-Kherson was firmed up by the summer of 2022,
that is within 4-5 months of Putin initiating the “special military
operation” that began in the Donbas region with a lax and liesurely
advance by Russian armour which stalled because of the fight in the Ukrainians
the Russians did not expect. It nevertheless achieved Putin’s war aim of
annexing the eastern Ukrainian “oblasts” with Russian-speaking people
— Donetsk and Luhansk, which provided a land bridge linking Crimea and the
Russian mainland, and will help Russia to consolidate its absorption of these
parts of Ukraine claimed by Moscow.
True, this was Putin’s Plan B. Plan A went spectacularly wrong on the very
first day of the war on February 24, 2022. The Russian combined arms operation
featuring fighter-bomber aircraft, parachuted Spetsnaz Special Forces, and a
fleet of assault and transport helicopters were supposed to quickly capture the
Antonov airport on the outskirts of the Ukrainian capital, take Kyiv, install a
friendly government there, like the one in neighbouring Belarus, which would
then cede the Donbas belt to Russia. Except, the Ukrainian National Guard unit
posted at the airport hunted down the Russian paracommando, shot up a whole
bunch of the incoming assault helos with Igla manpads, and deterred Russian
Su-25 close air support aircraft from making low-level bombing/strafing runs by
accurate anti-aircraft fire.
In fact, by end-March 2022, Moscow having gained most of what it wanted
offered a peace deal to Ukraine in negotiations held in Minsk and in Istanbul
which Kyiv initially accepted, but later rejected under American pressure. As
far as the US is concerned, Ukraine offered an opportunity to mire the Russian
military in an unwinnable war, isolate it in the international community,
weaken it economically, and hurt its image and military reputation (as it did
by helping the Afghan mujaideen — with Pakistan’s assistance — run the
Russian occupation troops out of Afghanistan in the 1980s). Whence the US-NATO
policy of arming Ukraine to the teeth such that it would become a
“porcupine” — hard for Russia to swallow. The trouble is a porcupine
is more suited to defence than offence!
But considering what the Russian objective was, all this massive arming of
Ukraine — some $47 billion worth of arms transfers in the past one year alone
with more to come, even F-16s by this year end, will make not a whit of a
difference, because of one singular Ukrainian deficiency that Kyiv cannot
speedily rectify, namely, disparity in the military manpower strengths.
Russia’s population is 144 million versus Ukraine’s 44 million; the former
has 900,000 men under arms and two million in reserve, the latter 209,000
serving and 900,000 reservists. As of April 2023, Ukraine’s war toll
was 15,500-17,500 killed in action and 109,000-113,500 wounded. Moreover, 23.8
million Ukrainians sought refuge in neighbouring countries, a good
portion of this lot being youth avoiding military service. With Russia
imposing attrition warfare, Ukraine has so depleted its manpower resources, it
is anybody’s guess how much longer it can hold out. And no, there’s no question
of US-NATO landing troops to fight Ukraine’s war. This was clear from the
beginning, but US-NATO’s cynical policy of fighting to the last Ukrainian is
literally coming true! There’ll soon be no Ukrainians to fight the war!
The absence in Ukraine of a sizable military age manpower pool is so
elementary, but fatal, a weakness, Washington, in its eagerness to stick it to
Russia, predictably missed it.
Ukraine’s war woes apart, its President Volodomyr Zelensky’s extraordinary
wartime leadership is awe inspiring. What he has excelled in is in consistently
besting the Kremlin on the public relations front. His exploitation of the international,
especially US media, is exemplary in that it created this phantom prospect of a
victoriuos Ukraine out of thin air and then sustained it with his government’s
adroit image and influence management.
But, as I mentioned in my first post on this blog at the outset of this
conflict, nothing but nothing was going to prevent Russia from achieving its geostrategic objective of annexing the Donbas corridor. This the Russians did last year. They have been in a holding pattern ever since. There’s good reason why the US, NATO (and China) have quailed at the possibility
of tangling with the Russian army. It is slow to get going, but once it does
there’s a relentlessness to its efforts that no military can match. That’s why
America would rather Ukrainians do the fighting. After all, what does
Washington have to lose except more Ukrainians?
Security Wise 
Dr Karnad , In one of your def talks by adi you talked a little bit about how similar to the first industrial revolution which led to the creation modern nation states ,we are today observing the creation of economic centres and autarkic regions due to industrial revolution ushered by AI, Block- chain and other new age tech. Can you please expand on this topic in one of your upcoming post . Seems like something important is taking place , but nobody seems to be talking about it.
Regards
From
A Karnadist( A name given to the followers of Dr Bharat Karnad !)
Professor,
It seems likely that Russia will win territory when this war is over. Unfortunately the war will continue until the current administration is in power in the US. It’s possible power shifts to republicans in 2024 and that’s when the war stalemates.
I don’t know how this would have benefited the US or Europe as they seem to have suffered more. I’m sure all kinds of spin will come out of western media mouths. Russia would have gained territory and military experience, will likely be more powerful and closer to China than ever before. Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan and Biden would have weakened US power through their Ukrainian adventures. Bravo! How much trial and error before it learns?
@Dr Karnad
Excellent and perfectly-timed piece! However, you failed to mention a plethora of minute and highly damaging(as far as the Pentagon is concerned) operational details of the offensive. The whole enterprise was very openly and publicly planned and war-gamed by the Pentagon as such the Ukrainians had little to no role whatsoever as far as operational planning and preparation of the necessary mechanized strike package is concerned. The US controlled the most infinitesimal details of planning and even execution of the operation. Just consider this: the Ukros have made dozens(literally) of armored attacks at the Robotino strongpoint located in Western Zaporozhia. Yet, two months into the offensive they have failed to even reach the outskirts of that little village! This displays an inflexible dogmatic approach to the execution of operational plans. It seems that neither the Ukrainians nor their American masters have read a word of what great men like Von Clausewitz and Count Molke(the elder) once said about the viability of battle plans after first contact with the enemy. Ideally, anybody with even half a brain cell in the Ukrainian high command and the Pentagon JCS would have ordered the pouring in of all available reserves at the junction between Zaporozhia and Donetsk(where the Ukros have reached the main enemy defense line) once a breakthrough was made back in early June. Coincidentally, the enemy defense lines are much thinner here, which offers a better opportunity of breaking through(to Mariupol) than the much more dense Russian defenses north of Melitopol and Tokmak. Of course, Ukrainian mechanized forces were nowhere close in terms of training and equipment as they should have been. The Russians have essentially followed word by word the manuals of constructing strong defensive lines written by their grandfathers exactly 80 years ago at the Titanic clash at Kursk(a few hundred km east of where the battles are being fought now).
Make no mistake, the defense lines can certainly be broken, but that would require squadron-level raids from Su-30-sized aircraft armed with 1000 lb thermobaric bombs. They will also require ultra-wideband DRFM jammers to at least temporarily spoof the Russian S-400s. In any case, the planning and execution of this botched operation have essentially unmasked the Pentagon’s inability to carry out complex operations against an enemy which can proverbially “shoot back”. This is quite unsurprising as the people who are in charge of the Pentagon are the same folk who couldn’t handle low-intensity insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is essentially the side-effect of what happens when somebody over-indulges in CT Ops for two decades(and loses!). The Chinese would have a broad smile on their faces after watching how the US performed in Ukraine. The clock is ticking much faster now for both India and Taiwan. The resumption of Full-yield atmospheric thermonuclear testing is a must for the former.
@Ayush- “The war is not meant to be won. It is meant to be continuous. The essential act of modern warfare is the destruction of the produce of human labour. A hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. In principle, the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects, and its object is not victory over Eurasia or Eastasia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
George Orwell
Major motive was to train and enhance AI used in supplied American arms /drones and prepare US and keep ahead of adversary when it comes to future warfare, which they are achieving anyways.
also you missed one more point that Finland whose border is very close from Moscow already became NATO member this year and Russia couldn’t do anything because it was busy with Ukrain war.
Email from Lt General Arun Sahni (ret), former GOC-in-C, South-Western Command
Wed, 9 Aug at 10:18 pm
Thanks Bharat,
The essence is well captured and I am in total agreement with you.
I feel that the US is going to slow down support for Ukraine, as reflected in the media posts.For it has realised that as its geostrategic rival is China, a stronger Russia is in its favour.
We will see more of Biden backtracking. A glimpse was at the Saudi rapprochement recently.
Best Wishes
Arun Sahni
Modiji the great visionary that he is due to which he is the undisputed ‘Vishvguru’ of this world has given enough hint to all unemployed people of this world by saying “aapdaa maeyy avsarr dhundo” meaning seek opportunities in crisis.
Unemployed people of the world go and join Russian or Ukrainian armies. They both need loads of foot soldiers to carry on their battle while the world enjoys watching this circus.
Thank you sir, This article is a precise analysis and simplified description of a complex war. warm regards Gp Capt R K Narang VM (Retd.) PhD
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66445010
Imran khan wanted to make a “nayaa Pakistan” and ended up in a “puranaa jail cell”
Bharatji,
Earlier Russia had launched a major Psych-op by staging the so called Wagner Coup. The purpose was to show that Russian military/Putin is weak and to lure Ukraine into committing its main offensive firepower. So the Russia could destroy the shiny new toys that USA had given it.
Now this Western Media u-turn might also be a ploy, to lure Russia into committing its forces for offence. So that Ukraine again destroy them.
Do you Agree with my line of thinking ?
No.
Zelensky should ask the Ukrainian embassy in India to conduct recruitment drives. Millions of Indians will use the opportunity to join the Ukrainian army and migrate from India. Win-win situation for everyone involved.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66478422
@ Ho Ho- Well said but why only Ukrainians? Russians should do the same.
The biggest so called asset of India is “berozgaaro kii faujj” Millions of them will join the Ukrainian as well as Russian army for a monthly salary and promise of a passport after 3-5 years of army service.
India will receive huge remittances from these folks every month.
@Ho Ho- This already happened last year;
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-many-indians-want-join-063008965.html
Email from Air Marshal Vinod Kumar Verma (Retd)
Sat, 12 Aug at 9:26 am
Good one.
Interesting read;
https://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/2023/08/04/meet-the-indians-who-are-fighting-for-ukraine.html
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-china-to-hold-border-talks-tomorrow-ahead-of-modi-xi-meet-8889949/
Both sides are fooling each other. Neither one possess the willpower to fight and settle the matter once and for all. Bloody useless time pass talks.
@ Uncle Sam- I would much rather blame the Indians side. The Chinese army gave them a glorious opportunity to show their bravado instead of doing “goliyoo kii raasleella” Indian army did a “dandaa dandiyaa” with PLA.
Indians are taught wrong history right from the schools;
1. 1947 war with Pakistan, the Pakistanis managed to annex loads of Kashmir so it was a victory for Pakistan.
2. 1965 was was a draw not an Indian victory;
https://www.dw.com/en/why-neither-india-nor-pakistan-won-the-1965-war/a-18677930
3. 1962 Indian army was thrashed so badly by PLA that nobody on the Indian side talks about Indian victory over the PLA in 1967.
4. 1971 was the only time that Indian army got the better of their Pakistani counterparts and broke Pakistan into two.
So since 1971 Indian army hasn’t fought any war and the same goes for PLA, whose last action was the skirmish against Vietnam around 1979.
As a result both the Indian army and PLA are scared to fight a real war. They both are corrupt to the core and sycophants to the political powers in their respective countries.
Professor,
It’s interesting to note that ever since Chinese propaganda on its economic and military capabilities has been exposed in your blog’s comments by Indian military enthusiasts, many chamars, gujjars and jaats who sound more Chinese than Indian have started cropping up. Shows that Indian info warfare is starting to have an impact on Chinese minions! Love it! May the games begin!
@Amit- Games have been going on since last century. Countries propaganda wings even portray war defeats as victories and here in India no one even talks about Indian victory over the Chinese PLA in 1967.
@Amit- I have called both the Indian army as well as PLA corrupt so why are you calling me a Chinese minion?
Btw, if China is a minion then Indian is a micro minion. PLA is in control of large area claimed by India as its own and mark my words India cannot dare to launch any aggressive operation against the Chinese ever.
Let me guess you must be a NRI. Only a few NRI’s like you view India with rose tainted glasses while enjoying a better life quality abroad.
Come to India and experience things for yourself when even the lowest worker in BJP hierarchy will not talk with a straight face to you. Walk the talk instead of being a keyboard warrior.
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/19th-round-of-military-talks-india-presses-for-access-to-all-old-patrolling-points-along-the-lac-8892864/
I already predicted in my previous comment that these talks are totally useless and won’t result in anything.
Professor,
A pretty informative video on why a China may be headed for decades of deflation or lost decades like Japan. Sanjay Jha does a great job in explaining the risks and highlighting why China won’t be able to grow. A must watch for all China watchers…and the Chinese Jaats, Chamars and Gujjars!
Talk about an economy which is likely half its stated size, and the shrinking or lack of growth in the coming decades. The gas is leaking from the dragon at an alarming rate! Must say that Aadi Achint does a lot of good interviews.
This is no longer a mere ‘clash’. Sources have revealed that:
At least 20 Indian troops are already dead. 3 of bullet wounds.
45 have been captured with 25 of that number having been released.
135 Indian troops are injured with some at 303 field hospital and others at GH Leh.
The above excerpt is from Saurav Jha’s tweet. If 3 Indian soldiers died of bullet wounds then why didn’t Indian army fire back with their guns instead of indulging in stone throwing and ‘Gadda Yudhh’
And sources have revealed at least 43 Chinese soldiers died. Are you aware, Doordarshanji?
@Amit- I am very well aware of the fact and for your kind information more than 50 Chinese soldiers died and majority of them while trying to cross the river (water level of which suddenly rose)
The question here is were firearms used in the aforementioned conflict because Indian authorities deny it so who is lying Saurav or Indian government?
Ki pharak painda Sirji? What matters is they got a thrashing! And got one again in Arunachal last year. The fact is that Indian military capabilities have increased since 2020, and China will definitely get a bloody nose if they try to attack India again.
Frankly, because they could lose face with India, after which an attack on Taiwan is unlikely, it is unlikely they will ever attack India before they take on Taiwan. It’s also unlikely as Indian ISR capability has increased, which caused the surprise in 2020. China can huff and puff however much it likes, but it looks like even the huffing is reducing to weak puffs due to their severe economic problems.
What India needs to do is to break the back of Pakistan without fighting a hot war so that the Chinese cannot use them as a proxy on India. Then China will be in a good bit of trouble.
Economics is the most useless and hyped up subject in the world. Useless jargons and generalizations.
This guy Jha is saying that Chinese labourers were excluded from buying property in big cities through ‘Haikou’ system.
How many construction workers have bought high rise apartments which they help build in Noida, Gurgaon, Hyderabad and Bangalore?
Nobody knows how much money 💰 is there in US, China, India or any country on this planet for that matter.
Everything is based on estimates. Rich elites exist everywhere so does the middle class and the struggling section.
@Amit- You sound like a typical member of Modi Fan Club.
I don’t think that Indian military capability has increased since the clash with the Chinese in 2020, if so why is the Indian establishment begging the Chinese to restore the status quo ante of April 2020.
In military terms success and failure is measured not in terms of casualties but strategic gains. Every geopolitical analyst viz Praveen Sawhney, Bharat Karnad etc. states that India has ceded land to China during the aforementioned clash.
So, I don’t know what thrashing you are talking about.
How does assessing true Indian capabilities and knocking on Chinese hyped capabilities make one a Modi fan? Darshan door ki keejiye Singhji! Also, don’t club Sawhney and the Professor in the same group. Sawhney almost never makes sense – he’s written an entire book claiming how China will attack India by this year and their electronic/cyber warfare capabilities are so superior etc. while the Chinese military is superior, he does a systematic job of dissing India and hyping up China. Lots of hyperbole and no strategic sense! The Indian military thinks of him more like a mole than a serious military analyst. Which fan club are you part of?
Also, while Indian patrolling in Depsang has stopped, the Chinese cannot patrol there either. Plus negotiations are ongoing. Get your facts straight! Professor Karnad also does not highlight this fact.
@Amit- China continues to have its PLA troops deployed in Depsang well inside the territory of India and they continue to block the Indian Army’s access to Patrolling Points 10, 11, 12, 12A and 13.
And if Indian army really has the capability they should initiate a limited offensive at the border to get back the ever quoted (by the Indian establishment) status quo ante restored.
These senseless talks and so called negotiations have been going on for more than three years now.
The Chinese aren’t moving back. The ball is in India’s court to force them out. The proof of the pudding lies in its eating all these talks of bravado amount to zilch.
Maybe you should be the advisor to the Indian government Singhji! We will see how you perform after you advise the Indian government to go for ‘limited offensive’ (sounds remarkably similar to the ‘limited military operations’ in Ukraine). You seem to have no experience or Knowledge of war strategy or warfare!
@Amit- What’s your experience and knowledge of a war?
Limited offensive here refers to the action confined only to the border. Neither PLA has the capability to match to Delhi nor Indian army can ever cross Ladakh into mainland China.
You are denouncing a well renowned Geopolitical strategist like Praveen Sawhney calling him a mole.
Why don’t you go to PMO and share your wisdom with the one and only self proclaimed Vishvguru’
The view I shared of Sawhney is not mine and is of the Indian military. Clearly your knowledge of these matters is limited.
@Doordarshan Singh- Well said
Following is a tweet from Pravin Sawhney;
China has occupied 2000 sqkm Indian territory since April 2020.
PM said on 19 June 2020, no one is on our land – why did he say?
Because Indian mil does not have capability to throw PLA out forcefully.
Similarly, if Indian military had war capability, Pak proxy war would end!
1:31 PM · Feb 6, 2023
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26.7K
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This Jha guy has no credibility. He has made false claims about Indian soldiers body riddled with bullets.
This is the best report of the clash. A few excerpts from it;
The battle, despite being held between two nuclear-armed powers, was almost medieval: fought in hand-to-hand combat by soldiers armed with sticks, stones and metal bars.
China’s losses in the high-altitude 2020 Galwan Valley border clash with India – the deadliest confrontation between the two giants in over four decades – were much higher than reported with many soldiers drowning while crossing a fast-flowing, sub-zero river in darkness.
https://theklaxon.com.au/home-china-india-clash-death-58xj7/
This was published in February 2022. Even Global Times which is quick to pounce upon and issue their version whenever something comes up contradictory to the official Chinese position couldn’t come up with a counter composition to the aforementioned link.
Jha should focus on his arm chair irrelevant economics blah blah rather than poke his nose into Geopolitical issues.
https://indianexpress.com/article/world/donald-trump-india-reciprocal-tax-2024-presidential-elections-8901666/
Wonder if Modi Bhakts of Hindu Sena will still do Havan for the electoral victory of “Modiji kaeyy mitrr Trumpji” and savior of Human race 😆
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/hindu-sena-holds-havan-for-donald-trump-the-saviour-of-humanity-from-islamic-terror-2796039/
Looks like some people have actually watched Jha on his economic views on China, and that he’s ticking a raw nerve in many. This is called information warfare. I see many Indian military channels on YouTube now who are systematically dismantling the myth of the Chinese dragon. It’s always good to not get carried away and make military/security decisions based on the truth and reality, but it is also important to dismantle the disformation the dragon spreads about its true capabilities. I can see how the Indian military has improved on this front in the last three years.
@Amit- Is there any country in the world which doesn’t indulge in propaganda about itself?
India does it as well. Army’s performance has been seen firstly they let a huge tract of Indian land be seized by the Chinese and now they are begging China to vacate it.
Funny, you don’t see that what happened in 2020 was an intelligence failure when India and the rest of the world was going through a pandemic. Armchair critics like you can criticize and expect a perfect world but reality is different. I think Indian intelligence was woeful at the time – it has improved since then. It’s likely you are a Chinese stooge. And China is an inflated balloon! There no begging going on.
2009 — SIIS wanted me there for a longer time; all I could spare was 6 weeks.
@Amit- You are calling everyone a Chinese stooge which goes on to show that you yourself are an Indian stooge (most probably living in US on a H1B visa, unemployed willing to do anything for a green card and US citizenship) and a Modi fan boy.
People like you have very limited knowledge and pose as experts. Indian military is a huge organization. How can it have a uniform view?
There are critics of Sawhney as well as folks who like his straight talks but calling him a mole is surely ‘hitting below the belt’
Go get him arrested if he is a mole. Armchair expert calling others names.