Not too long ago in Islamabad, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s National Security Adviser, Dr Moeed Yusuf, did something unexpected. On the occasion of the Margalla Dialogue 21, he confessed that the Pakistan government lacked the capacity to digest all information and data and provide useful inputs to the making of national security policy. In the last couple of years in harness, having acquainted himself with the weaknesses of the policymaking process, he has sought to strengthen it. Yusuf’s solution: Attach the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) — a leading government-funded thinktank to the NSA ‘s office and then connect it on a secure and realtime comunications link with other select thinktanks in the country to ensure both the widest possible base of disparate expert views on a range of policy issues, and then to ensure the policy products that accrue are institutionally accessible to the NSA, and other decisionmakers in the various ministries and agencies of Pakistan government, presumably, including the Pakistan Army. IPRI and other orgs, in this scheme of things, appear most significantly to have available for their analyses classified material accessed by line officers in the Foreign Office and elsewhere in government.
Owning up to this institutional debility was the great hump Yusuf pushed the Pakistan government over. He was an outsider who had the PM’s confidence; he could do it. It could be the beginning of a continuous stream of research papers distilled into ‘executive summaries’ for dissemination within the concerned agencies and the Pakistan government at-large. Yusuf is trying to replicate in Islamabad the policy-wise live intellectual milieu of Washington, DC, of which he has vast experience. Before taking up his present post, he headed the South Asia programme at the US Congress-funded US Institute for Peace. (The mark against him is that as an American ‘Green card’-holder it was problematic for Imran to appoint him his NSA and, in any case, that his advice will always be suspect for leaning US-wards.) Except, Imran hoisted him on to the chair anyway, seemingly tired of the same old, same old, foreign and military policy line fed him by the entrenched policy elite.
That’s the hump India will make no effort to cross because Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a votary of the policy Establishment as-is, having moulded it into his handmaiden. So the country will continue to be handicapped by the manifest shortfalls in India’s foreign and military policy-making process, with his two prime advisers — the NSA Ajit Doval and external affairs minister S Jaishankar only too happy to do the PM’s bidding. The result over the last seven-odd years are policies dawdling in the ‘comme ci comme ca’ (French for neither good nor bad)-realm. This is fine by Modi. And also, for obvious reasons, by Messrs Doval and Jaishankar — because they don’t have to mentally exert themselves much, if at all.
An example: The only refreshing departure from the old foreign policy is the cultivation of the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. It is fetching huge geostrategic gains — and was Modi’s idea. He instinctively understood that it is not the IT professionals pining for the US H1B visa who will produce recurring and longterm benefits for the country but the masses of carpenters, masons, plumbers, electricians, janitors and clerks in the UAE and elsewhere and, at a higher level, financial and business managers , engineers and and medical doctors and technicians running the Gulf economies and health and engineering systems who, clockwork-fashion, send back remittances and are the economic pillars requiring solidification. They keep homes and hearths in India warm, kitchen stoves, now gassified, lit up, and their children in “English-medium” schools — such and other activities collaterally pumping state and regional economies. Last year, the remittances were worth US$ 83 billion and this in a “flat year”, courtesy the vagaries of the COVID pandemic! Thanks to this Modi policy the majority Hindus in this expat workforce now even have their own temple in UAE to propitiate their Gods in. And there are yoga classes for those interested in attending them in Riyadh and other Saudi cities where, until the other year, women were not permitted to walk around/shop unescorted by men of the family and, horror of horrors, drive cars! The “feel good” sentiment of this Gulf diaspora translates into votes at home, positively affecting even Muslims in the Indian workforce in the Gulf and their dependents back home.
The assorted sheiks and emirs and the King-in-waiting of Saudi Arabia — MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) are no chumps. (The Saudi ambassador to the US in the 1980s with similar name triggered much mirth for South Asians — Bandar bin Sultan or, was it Sultan bin Bandar, in either case everyone asked about the monkey?!) Sharing native cunning with Modi, they are only too aware that the sandy parcels they lord over are living on borrowed time. Saudi Arabia with 17% of the world’s remaining oil reserves of some 260 billion barrels — second largest after Venezuela, pumps out 10.2 million barrels every day amounting to 3.7 billion barrels extracted annually. Meaning, these keffiyeh-sporting monarchs can expect to live high on the hog for as little as another 60 years but for no more than 70 years on the outside. Then what? A return to the Bedouin paradise in the desert, desultory grazing of camels, what?! Appalled at this prospect, they are weighing investment destinations to guarantee large incomes into the oil-less future and see the emerging economies, with India in the van, as their best bet. Hence, the Saudi ambassador in Delhi promised in December 2020 that $100 billion investment was “on track”, and the Gulf emirs are financing malls in Srinagar Valley (sending shivers in Islamabad which fears this will bury Articles 370 and 35A for good, formalising for the world Modi’s absorption of Jammu, Ladakh and Kashmir into the Indian Union).
Could Jaishankar or Doval ever have summoned such bravura political instincts to suggest this turn in India’s policy? It is because the PM knows they are career babus incapable of any new policy ideas, but that’s why he hired them. They are there not to think but to implement whatever the boss comes up with. You still need the heavers of policy wood! It has reinforced Modi’s view of himself as his own best thinktank, even if there’s much less to show for it in other policy areas! And, zero movement on a critical strategic issue — resumption of thermonuclear testing to inject credibility into an Indian arsenal filled with unproven and, therefore, useless simulation-designed hydrogen weapons. And this despite being offered every possible provocation and justification for open-ended nuclear testing — the Chinese proxy North Korea’s relentless nuclear and missile testing regimes, and the unhindered transfer of the resulting technological advances to the third member of this rogue triad — Pakistan, and US’, Russia’s, and China’s ongoing nuclear modernization programmes to obtain, among other things, more usable low yield thermonuclear weapons by minimizing radio active fallout. But Delhi’s priority remains to keep Washington placated and pacified, its nonproliferation policy objectives of freezing India’s weapons technology at the 20KT threshold, safely achieved.
To return to Yusuf’s IPRI initiative, is there any possibility of a counterpart development here? Of course, not. Why not? Firstly, because of the secrecy phobia. In an age where there’s very little worth classifying — almost all of the material involved in crafting policy finds its way, one way or another, to the open global information commons, the Official Secrets Act, etc are an anomaly and are, perhaps, retained just so the top people in government feel important! Only 3%-5% of information coursing through Indian official channels deserve the “secret” or “top secret” label and less than 1% of it merits the highest classification status for extremely sensitive information. Secondly, because the IFS officers manning the MEA, like their fellow generalists in the other civil services, especially the shortsighted IAS honchos manning the Defence Ministry, and Departments of Space, Atomic Energy, et al, are loath to share any information with thinktankers — information being power, etc. This attitude in the information age is laughable. More perspicacious analysis can be penned by analysts sitting in Delhi, say, than by staffers in distant embassies churning out turgid despatches. Those habiting MEA are disadvantaged further by another fact once revealed to me by an ex-IFS appointed foreign minister, Natwar Singh, according to whom the last “book” most MEA officers are likely to have read was when cramming for the UPSC! So much for keeping professionally abreast of new thought currents and trends to inform Indian foreign policy-making!
The MEA-subsidised Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses now prefixed with the late defence minister’s moniker to become Manohar ParrikarIDSA, for its part is marking time, remaining right where it was at its founding in the mid-1960s — a bunch of academics with wings clipped. Denied access to any worthwhile technical or other policy-related information, the bulk of the faculty comprise researchers of JNU-type, making-do fulltime by embroidering the policies of the government of the day. There’s no published evidence of any original thinking being done. Whole lifetimes in MPIDSA are wasted by its staffers producing very little that’s new or novel. Further, to guarantee this remains so is installed a retired diplomat as “Director General”, whose brief seems to be to not let disruptive ideas-persons rile the Institute’s “unndata” — MEA/MOD.
Much of why IDSA is what it is can be laid at the door of the late K. Subrahmanyam — the Institute’s long-serving second Director (the first, it is usually forgotten, being retired Major General Som Dutt). KS made no effort to bring IDSA institutionally into the policymaking process in MEA and MOD, despite his unique standing, in the words of his son, external affairs minister, S Jaishankar, as the ultimate “insider-outsider”. He was centrally involved, not the IDSA he headed, in influencing policy. Many senior staffers in the Institute during his stewardship of it complained that Subrahmanyam was like “a Bunyan tree” — letting nothing grow underneath it. But KS’ was a wonderfully fertile intellect yoked, unfortunately, to policies hurtful of the national interest. He argued forcefully for India’s going weapons nuclear in the early 1970s but, post-1998, hurt the natural development of India’s nuclear deterrent by his advocacy of “minimum deterrence”. Likewise, his case for getting in thick with the US post-Soviet Union’s collapse in 1992 terminated in the 2008 US-India civilian nuclear deal, and the foundational accords (LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA), which other than restricting Indian nuclear weapons development, has curtailed India’s policy latitude and strategic choices, and shrunk India’s international profile to a Western dependency.
Jaishankar explained his father’s policy journey from steadfast friendship with Russia to wanting India to climb into America’s lap in the new Century, for instance, as adjusting to the changes in international reality. That’s one way of putting it. Jaishankar was speaking at the conclusion of IDSA’s virtual K Subrahmanyam Memorial Lecture on 3rd February. The eminence who delivered this year’s lecture was Edward Luttwak, a longtime fixture on the strategic policy scene in Washington, who in his talk on an intriguing subject — “Applying the K. Subrahmanyam method today”, rationalised KS’ counterproductive policy slants in terms of, what he called, “linear logic”. I failed to understand what Subrahmanyam’s logic that Luttwak was expounding on, was about. It seems to me that logic linearly applied better fits a simpler international system of the early Cold War era — a duopoly with defined blocs and lots of room for manuever by third parties. It is less pertinent, however, in a world in electric flux in the new millennium and why, in the event, riding US’ strategic coattails is a big mistake.
Luttwak said “Americans would be outmatched by the Chinese numbers”, whence his fairly banal “antidote” conforming to KS’ view, of India and the US needing to “align” to deal with China — the common threat. Luttwak thereafter recommended an “organic alliance” of India, Japan and the US, and argued, among other things, why aircraft carriers in the Indian Navy would be easily sunk, but nuclear attack submarines would lend an edge.
Listening to Luttwak, some of his ideas sounded familiar. It occurred to me that I had been propounding the notion of an “organic security” system in Asia in all my books starting with in my first one in 1994 –‘Future Imperilled: India’s Security in the 1990s and Beyond’. And I have been crying myself hoarse about carriers being a naval liability for India for as long (most recently in a detailed analysis in my 2015 book – ‘Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)’, pages 349-351!
But because, as Imran Khan said in his opening address at the Margalla Dialogue, Pakistanis (and Indians too) are partial to everything offered up by Westerners, may be the Indian government/MEA/MOD will now incorporate the “organic security” system notion in their policy rhetoric and considerations and the Indian Navy will begin stressing SSNs for its order-of-battle!!
Security Wise 
Professor,
Totally agree with you in the lack of diverse ideas in Indian think tanks. They are totally dominated by bureaucrats and academics. Compare that to US think tanks like CSIS, IISS, CFR, Atlantic Council, Hudson Institute etc. and you will get a sense of how vast the difference in the quality of discussions/ diversity of opinions is. Though the ORF does have some good discussions and articles, it is dominated by bureaucrats and academics.
Also agree with you on aircraft carriers vs. SSNs. We can get six SSNs for one aircraft carrier (probably more if you consider the carrier group). Maybe we get a new AC after we have bolstered the SSN fleet and the defence budget is much larger (as well as economy).
But regarding your point about partnership with the US, there is no choice currently. India relies on the US for aircraft engine technology as well as cybersecurity/electronics hardware, amongst other things. It does not have an electronics hardware base to be independent of western capabilities for the next 15-20 years (especially with AI warfare the new norm). India is neither an economic or military ‘super’ power yet. It will probably take at least 15 years more for it to become an economic giant. And probably another 20 years to be more self reliant in military hardware capabilities. If all goes well. Until then it’s hands are tied.
It’s interesting that the two entities that are in strategic bondage today also talk the most about strategic ‘autonomy’ – EU and India. Note also how Russia is starting to use the same language as it comes more and more into the Chinese orbit. Only in times of peace can India be somewhat independent in its policy decisions. In times of global turmoil, it’s decisions are more taken due to its bondages than autonomously.
@Professor Karnad- What about Indian activity against CPEC projects?
https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/pakistan-balochistan-attacks/31684561.html
Do you consider the aforementioned as a feather in Doval’s cap?
https://www.theklaxon.com.au/home/china-india-clash-death-58xj7
This report by the Australian news site “The Klaxon” came out on 2nd February.
It’s been more than a week now and surprisingly Chinese establishment hasn’t made any comment on it.
This proves that both sides lied 🤥. The Chinese about their casualties and India about losing territory to China.
Dr Karnad,I m sure you are well aware of the fact that the strategic forces command rejected the untested trash offered by DAE out of hand.They also threw the nonsense of DAE spearheaded by guys like Chidambaram that simulation is enough to preempt further testing, out of the window.They went for the reliable, respectable 500 kt FBF warhead which is nothing but a scaled up version of S1 primary.The military has at least a bit more brains than the babus of MEA and DAE.500kt warhead mated onto a missile with 10m CEP is enough to evaporate large Chinese population centers.60-70 canistered,rail road A-5s on LOW posture is enough.Also, one thing that went completely unnoticed was the commissioning of INS dhruva. https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/rajnath-singh-presents-awards-to-defence-estates-personnel-for-survey-of-defence-land/articleshow/89484721.cms.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ins-dhruv-india-gets-its-first-nuclear-missile-tracking-ship-today-details-here-101631233967587.html.
It gives for the first a critical long range early warning capability against.Having an X- Band radar means that it can even differentiate between decoys and actual warheads.It should be able to detect,classify,and even predict the trajectories of any missile launched from any part of china.We have given every hint that we have already gone for LOW posture.A LOW posture makes conventional warfare prohibitively risky.This is exactly what China has long cried about to US-Russia.Now we are in that club as well.Our “NFU” is nothing but public none sense meant to deceive western nonproliferation think tanks.
@Ayush:
It makes no sense to bring decoys and actual warheads together. Warheads on missiles will fly at least at 3 Mach or even higher. Airborne decoys (if there are any in air battlespace) could reach hardly 1.5 Mach. Hence there will be a huge difference in Doppler shifts in the radar returns in the two cases and are automatically discriminated against in the range-Doppler bins in real time. Any track and scan radar modules will suffice for this and there is no particular advantage in operating X band radars. Furthermore, decoys are rarely mounted on fighter platforms since they make these unstable and very difficult to maneuver. The only cases I know using decoys are transport aircrafts and AWACS which are far away in the battle scenario. Even then the decoys fly usually two hundred metres from the aircraft and will separate in a couple of hours or sooner after they are launched.
Hahaha Professor your parents should have named you George Francis or something like that, to take advantage of the inferiority complex of MEA MoD… that way some sense could have put in their minds.
Secondly you have argued that we should arm Vietnamese with nukes….Can we see that happening if China arms Pakistan with hypersonics?
Vietnam should be N-armed regardless of hypersonics to Pakistan. And ‘George Francis’ wuldn’t have helped without an appropriate Western location! Lol.
@whatinitanyway,
Hey , “Whatsinaname” (Shakespearean analogy?),
This is not a forum to mock Professor Karnad, a strategist of international standing respected all over the world. I do not agree with him on every count, but I will not stand anyone throwing insults at him.
When you say
“Professor your parents should have named you..”,
it is clear to me that your parents did not educate you on how to address others.
@Sankar
Just want to be anonymous on web….
And I wasn’t mocking him…
I just agreed to his point in the last paragraph
“…..(and Indians too) are partial to everything offered up by Westerners, may…..”
The fact that he had a crucial part in nation’s nuclear Policy gives me more reason than one not to mock ;).
@whatsintanyway:
Thanks for clearing the air. Of course, the right spirit is there and it settles the matter. I have actually reacted to the wording literally.
@Bharatkarnad MOD, not MEA subsidised MP-IDSA.
Doesn’t make much of a difference to the output!
@BharatKarnad It does make a factual difference. The fact still remains that you got it wrong and that it’s the MOD, not the MEA which subsidises MP-IDSA.
Pay attention V Ganesh@ — no “difference to the output!” Incidentally, there seems to be rotational funding of IDSA as between MEA and MOD.
Email from Rear Admiral KR ‘Raja’ Menon (Retd):
Fri, 11 Feb at 2:43 pm
Great thinking and I go along with the main proposition that Doval and Jaishankar are outclassed by Moeed and Imran. SSNs are imperative but so is a Carrier but we should talk.
Raja
@BharatKarnad It indeed makes a difference to the output as the MP-IDSA is a defence think-tank [and not an external affairs think-tank] as is evident in its name. It’s funded by the MOD, not the MEA.
Oh?! Has anyone seen anything substantively “defence” (i.e., military-related) published by MPIDSA?
Totally agree Professor. IDSA discussions are normally boring and long. The one recent interesting discussion was with the German Naval Chief. It is ironic that Ambassador Chinoy thanked the Vice Admiral for his candour and honesty in his remarks, two traits missing in its own discussions! And he was fired for it! We need more clear hard power discussions in IDSA. It should not be a diplomatic talk shop.
Your thoughts on Philippines brahmos sale? Whose idea was that within the government?
The idea of missile-arming Southeast Asian states first mooted in official circles by me in the first NSAB in 1998 has taken this long to percolate down to when it is now a still infirm state policy.
Have you noticed the blatant hypocrisy and negligence of India by Geriatric,invertebrate Biden.He has stirred up a global hysteria and media storm over strategically irrelevant Ukraine while he is completely mum on PLA’s much bigger buildup against us.he hasn’t made a single public statement in our support so far.This is in stark contrast to trump who stood shoulder by shoulder with us against our common enemy.Had it not been for trump’s manhandling of Xi in his last months,Xi would have certainly attacked us.Trump bought us a critical year’s worth of time to plug gaps and shore up defenses.Biden is no less than the modern day reincarnation of Neville chamberlain.It’s high time modi wakes up and orders snap Megaton tests ASAP.After Kiev falls,we’re next!
Look, Ayush@, have always maintained that India will have to rely on itself and cannot trust
friends, “strategic partners” and especially not an untrustworthy America to take care of its security. Let’s stop expecting the US cavalry to come to the rescue of Indians!
Professor, one question I had was why China is not sanctioned by the MTCR and NSG for missile and nuclear proliferation. India seems to always be under pressure for not exporting missiles > 300 km to any country, yet there is open talk of China arming Pakistan with hypersonics. How has China gotten away with it for so long? (Even when it wasn’t a great power).
Because, Amit@, China doesn’t care two hoots about international agreements when its national intrest is on the line; India, in contrast, has since 1947 time and again compromised its national interest to not just conform with agreements it has signed, but with international “opinion”!!
Amit@ — China’s not sanctioned because, apparently, as charter member of P-5 of NPT it doesn’t feel bound by the rules of offshoot agreements, such as MTCR or NSG!
Bharat please upload a piece on the Ukraine situation.
Amandeep@ — I don’t sense the Ukraine situation blowing up. And things at the meta-strategic level are where they were on December 4, 2020 as noted in my post — “Tricky geopolitics and appeasement by arms purchases” on that date.
Putin kicked out US and NATO without firing a single shot.Unbelievable brinkmanship which his best friend Patrushev should teach Doval.
@BK, India is also calling back the students from Ukraine. And DNR & LNR are on the verge of getting a new status. In end of 2019 the future was apparent and may be like myself you also relied on the ‘good senses’ and ‘honorable behaviour’ of the people in charge. This carries the potential to economically affect India even if India did nothing and tweedle deed and tweedle dumbed her way through. Also crisis times are times of opportunity also. May be the gods have granted the wishes to our ‘nationalists’ in some manner – externally and/or internally. Opportunities do not get offered every other day and a missed opportunity will have its own ramifications. So this potentially ends up getting to affect India much more than what it already would have otherwise. I just wish we get compensated properly whichever side we benefit.
India is the 4th largest military power in the world based on many parameters but has failed to showcase this military might instead choose going for soft power approach which will not work in India’s favor.
India doesn’t have any control over international financial institutions, doesn’t have surplus money like China to give loans,doesn’t have Hindu parallel institutions like well organised and funded Church which was one of the main tool of colonizers to control the people they conquered.Even small country like Nepal dare to raise border issues with India due to weakness in our leaders and policy makers.
Indian policy makers should 1st come out of colonial hangover which is still very high, stop thinking that other countries are favorable to Indians due to this good boy attitude which India is desperately trying to showcase again and again, dump Nehru/Gandhian policies and start implementing hard power policies which is realistically achievable.
@Deepak- Excellent points but unfortunately no one in the establishment will listen.
The biggest factor in India being such a ‘softie’ is that the political/bureaucratic section of the country looks upto the West like any roadside beggar looking at a palatial mansion.
The aforesaid factor provides enough ammunition for the Western intelligence agencies to seduce key Indian policy makers through 3 W’s (wine, women and wealth) thereby shepherding India as their lackey.
@Gavrav,Seduce policy makers through 3 W’s (wine, women and wealth) is applicable for policy makers of all countries but bigger problem for India is inferiority complex in Indians due to education system and colonial past including both islamic and christian colonization over many centuries.
Present day Judiciary,political system,military or take any major institution it is all western origin and our leaders and bureaucrats need white validation for major policy decisions.
China has overcome century of humiliation but India is still foolishly celebrating Millennium of humiliation.
Indeed, that’s why I said this in my previous comment, ‘the political/bureaucratic section of the country looks upto the West like any roadside beggar looking at a palatial mansion’
Chinese don’t give a damn about pleasing Westerners. They have made huge progress in every sphere.
I taught at a Government School here for many years. The state schools in China are very good in terms of faculty/infrastructure whereas look at the condition of Government schools in India.
In China the passing marks required to clear an exam- 60/100.
In India wrong history (British Colonists version) is taught in schools, wherein English agents like Gandhi/Nehru are worshipped whereas real revolutionaries like Bhagat Singh, Chandrasekhar Azad, Subhas Chandra Bose etc. are just reduced to footnotes.
The present establishment instead of implementing real reforms prefers tales of mythological ‘Ram Rajya’ to fool the masses.
@Gaurav.
You are spot on.I don’t know why but this western slave/inferiority complex is very deeply embedded in Indian psyche.Over here at IITb everybody tries to mimic my foreign English accent.They think whatever “gora babas” do is perfect.Also,the 3W’s are a far bigger problem than the aforementioned.Back in my gramps days in R&AW in 90’s, he had gathered hard evidence on a very senior babu leaking N-secrets to the US embassy.He had been following him for few years.Apparently, he had been honey trapped by a blonde, female CIA case officer during a summer holiday which he spent in US.When he presented the evidence to the Chief,he wAs predictably hushed,citing “jurisdiction violations”.Indian men can’t resist white women and the combination of that and wine is fatal.
@Ayush,you are asking “I don’t know why but this western slave/inferiority complex is very deeply embedded in Indian psyche”.
It is because post industrial revolution starting from mid of 18th century,worldview is dominated by west.They decided what is good/bad,what is scientific and unscientific, who is civilized,who are criminal tribes and so on.
They colonized almost all continents wiping out native Americans,Australian Aborigines through genocides and occupied their lands reducing the remaining people who escaped genocides to live on their mercy accepting xtianity and western lifestyle(cultural genocide).Africans became slaves and Indians and other Asians became cheap paid coolies .
British left India but they made sure British system remain in place in India even after their exit.Today’s India is inheritor of British system with small changes here and there.
I think now you got the answer why this inferior complexity is deep rooted in Indians.
@Gavrav, Not just political/bureaucratic section of the country is mentally enslaved to West but even commoners are indeed mentally enslaved.If your English is not proper then you are treated as a backward uneducated uncivilized villager in urban educated class section.You will not get a good salaried job if you do not know English.None of governments worked to remove importance of English and replace it with some Desi language for jobs/study/common communication language.
Foolish people are not even aware that Germans,French,Chinese,Japanese,Koreans progressed in science even without learning proper English.English is just another language out of hundreds of thousands of languages but unfortunately it has become common language of communication across the world due to colonial British empire.Learn English just for common communication language nothing more than that.
@Gavrav,Just an addition to what i posted earlier even mother tongue of children in metros and other highly urbanized cities are getting replaced by English.Parents talk with each other in native language but with Children they speak in English only So that they will be expert in English like true English people from England and go abroad,get a good job and earn huge amount of money.They are not even aware that they are creating a good for nothing generation of mentally enslaved people.
For people who think Ukraine is not a serious issue, here is an article which offers an alternative view.
Will Washington Launch a Mass-Casualty “False Flag” to Sabotage Nord Stream?
“American colleagues at the Pentagon told me, unequivocally, that the US and UK never would allow European-Soviet (re: EU-Russia) relations to develop to such a degree that they would challenge the US-UK’s political, economic or military primacy and hegemony on the European continent. Such a development will be prevented by all necessary means, if necessary by provoking a war in central Europe.” Christof Lehmann
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/will-washington-launch-a-mass-casualty-false-flag-to-sabotage-nord-stream/
@Roy-
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/The_Unz_Review
An excerpt from the aforementioned;
The Editor-in-Chief of The Unz Review is Ron Unz, who is ethnically Jewish.
He is a contemporary example of that unusual and disturbing phenomenon: a self-hating Jew
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60436938
Modi why don’t you also join the bandwagon?
Election season anyways is on in India. Deploy large scale troops at borders with both Pakistan and China saying that India is planning to reclaim back POK as well as Aksai Chin.
This will ensure heavy global publicity for Modi, something which he is constantly seeking, furthermore lots of votes.
Dr karnad are you aware of our nuclear command and control systems?In the era of cyber/EW weapons C2 is as important as the missile and warhead.As far as I am aware SFC uses GSAT-6 for secure, encrypted communications.Would like you to confirm this
Like other nuclear weapon states, India too uses satellites for C&C of nuclear forces. Not aware of the specific satellite used.
Have you interviewed anyone from the security establishment after April 2020.If yes,we’re you like “told you so”.Also have you ever interviewed any recently retired officer from SFC . Are they happy with what they have?
Until 2020,everybody had been almost completely oblivious to the threat that china poses.Back in Jan 2020 in a private meeting,my gramps had told a top,serving R&AW officer whom he had mentored back in his days that PLA will strike in spring-in April.He was laughed off,the other guy said that Xi will invite “certain death” if he chooses to attack,touting the A-5’s.Gramps quickly hit back saying that PLA will use combat drills to disguise a kargil-like intrusion .That is exactly what happened! Back in early April,that guy came back to him with sweat on his face and said that “there is heavy Chinese military movement in Aksai chin”.The military is finally done what he had long been crying for-purchase secure,network centric Israeli software defined radios, a network of nuclear hardened ammunition tunnels blasted into the Himalayas and serial producing 500-700 km range missiles.
@Ayush- Your Grandfather sure has either very good connections at the right places or an excellent foresight to have predicted the Chinese intrusion in mid 2020.
China has to sit on its gains, they managed to capture sizeable Indian land but they will not attempt this strategy any further.
Technology wise they are far superior to India in weapons but they fell short in the medieval combat of fighting, which they choose. This is reflected in the huge number of Chinese casualties, which were suppressed by the Chinese authorities.
Going further, there will not be any restoration of pre April 2020 status quo. Fourteen meetings have already taken place between both sides even if they were to have one hundred more meetings, there will not be any change on the ground situation.
Chinese intrusions were obvious after Xu Qiliang’s very public meeting with Gen Bajwa.He stayed in Pak for a record breaking 5 days and even allowed pak media to photograph him all the time,sending him India an unambiguous message.Xu is very secretive and stays away from cameras.He is Xi’s point man for mil-foreign affairs.He is more of a technocrat and less of a mil strategist.During his visit he assured everybody in pak about china’s unconditional support for pak in their common mission against India.Also, bajwa and imran khan reportedly begged Xu to intervene and bail them out as they knew Modi was about to hit them very hard.Just between 31st July -31st august Indian army killed a record breaking 70 paki soldiers at LoC,sending the message loud and clear that India will strike at the slightest provocation, forget about attacks like pulwama. Of course , a lot has changed since.Galwan spectacularly blew over their face.Gen narvane has already called their bluff once at kailash ranges. Galwan and Kailash have taught them some manners.Yes ,you are my grandpa is extremely well connected,even I m surprised as to the level of inside info he has.china is currently digging in for a very long haul with India. https://www.thenorthlines.com/china-digging-in-for-long-haul-in-ladakh/amp/