Mindless military procurement – S 400

The BJP government of Narendra Modi seems well set on the course of mindless military procurement. With so many strategic military areas to cover and a host of choices to strengthen national security available, trust Modi, Parrikar and Co. to splurge scarce resources on the wrongest buys imaginable. After committing US$30 billion for 36 — too few to make a difference but too costly to disregard the downstream costs — of the by and large useless Rafale “MMRCA” from France, naturally another equally flawed acquisition for the Russian S-400 supposedly anti-everything in the air from drones, aircraft to missiles, was approved in a move mainly to placate Moscow. Whether to make or firm up friendly relations, Modi apparently thinks armament purchases are the prime instrument. India will be paying through its nose for the Rafales and the S-400 long after the Modi dispensation is history. True the US$ 10.5 billion plus will mainly cover the cost of some five batteries of the advanced Russian air defence system, but also involve buying four of a new class of frigate, and to produce some 200 Kamov utility helicopters under license in the country. So, there’s a variety of armaments which buffers the S-400 purchase (rather than a single combat aircraft — Rafale) for like vast sums of money.

But why S-400, comparable to the US THAAD (Theatre High Altitude Area Defence)? May be because it is versatile able, owing to the Russian design philosophy of having a single tube fire different interceptors, such as the 400 km range 40N6, the 250 km range 48N6, the 120 km range 9M96E2, or the 48 km range 9M96E, to pull different missions. So this is an all-in-one air defence solution. Except, like all AD systems, it is optimized to take out ECM-laden, high-flying, combat aircraft, not incoming missiles. And it is very expensive. Given the conniptions when ever GOI contemplates nuclear missiles, India is buying this system as BMD (ballistic missile defence), with the Indian S-400 likely equipped with the 40N6 interceptor.

So, why is this bad? For one thing — what happens to the Indian BMD programme that VK Saraswat (now member of the Niti Ayog) during his time as DRDO head had protected and nursed so carefully? This BMD system operates on the principle of the twin Prithvi missile interceptors, one trying to take out an incoming missile in direct hit mode in exo-atmosphere, failing which the second interceptor destroys it in the endo-atmospheric milieu. As Saraswat himself admitted to me — and it is so revealed in my book — ‘Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)’, the Prithvi BMD may be effective, if at all, in killing single missiles, but simply will not be able to handle missile salvos — which is exactly how Pakistan and China will fire their missiles. So, what good is it, considering no BMD system anywhere in the world has done better than the Indian system in real-live firing, and none has fared at all well? If BMD is such a concern, the Rs 39,000 crores would have been better invested in increasing the production rate of strategic missiles, and in the indigenous development of a genuinely effective system to take on massed attacks? And, some of the monies could have been expended in strategically firming up an area in which India has zero capability, namely, manned long range high altitude bomber?

Because of the demand from the Strategic Forces Command, and perhaps my fevered advocacy from my time in NSAB (and since in my books and writings), the Indian Air Force finally and reluctantly agreed to buy/lease the Tu-22M3 ‘Backfire’ bomber from Russia. But, and extraordinarily, it asked for just FOUR of this bomber. This is consistent with IAF’s conviction that the country’s strategically capable air arm remain marginal if not nonexistent. A plainly bemused Moscow advised Delhi that an indent for 20 Tu-22M3s (i.e., a squadron plus reserve) would make better sense as it will ensure that, at any given time, at least ten of the aircraft will be ready to takeoff (and a single Tu-22 would be operational if only four of the bombers are inducted into IAF service)! That the Russians had to proffer this practical advice speaks volumes of IAF’s strategic sensibility.

The more one examines the Indian military’s procurement priorities, the more dismayed one gets. When our armed services falter at so basic a level, what hope for national security?

About Bharat Karnad

Senior Fellow in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, he was Member of the (1st) National Security Advisory Board and the Nuclear Doctrine-drafting Group, and author, among other books of, 'Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy', 'India's Nuclear Policy' and most recently, 'Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)'. Educated at the University of California (undergrad and grad), he was Visiting Scholar at Princeton University, University of Pennsylvania, the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC.
This entry was posted in Asian geopolitics, China, China military, DRDO, Europe, Geopolitics, Great Power imperatives, India's China Policy, India's strategic thinking and policy, Indian Air Force, Indian Army, Indian Navy, Military Acquisitions, Missiles, Nuclear Policy & Strategy, Nuclear Weapons, Relations with Russia, Russia, russian assistance, russian military, society, South Asia, Strategic Forces Command, Strategic Relations with the US & West, United States, US., Weapons, Western militaries. Bookmark the permalink.

29 Responses to Mindless military procurement – S 400

  1. Shaurya says:

    I really doubt the true capabilities of the S400 at ranges in excess of 120 KM for highly maneuverable targets. Better would have been to invest in the Barak program and long term in derivatives of Astra for such a role apart for Akash as the SRSAM. It would be beneficial, if we are able to use these missiles as part of the S400 system?

    The 4 backfires has been rumored but has it ever been confirmed? Sightings?

    Also, think the number $30 billion for Rafale was probably applicable to the original plan for 126 and not 36?

  2. Shaurya says:

    No word on Akula lease? or involve Russia for the new SSN design?

  3. Kranthi Kavikondala says:

    I guess we will have one of everything china has…but they are a 13trllion dollar economy, we still have to reach 3 trillion.

  4. raja says:

    sir, I think the first title you chose for your book WHY INDIA IS NOT A GREAT POWER (YET) might be INDIA WILL NEVER BE A GREAT POWER (WHY).But being an optimist you chose the latter. Its my conviction the latter title best describes the developments and i am an optimist.

  5. raja says:

    correction: But being an optimist you chose the former.

  6. KsytriaKhalsa says:

    I think they more chose this for the anti aircraft capability.

  7. Kanchi says:

    I guess we will have one of everything China has, but they are a 13 trillion $ economy and we are not $3 trillion yet.

  8. KsytriaKhalsa says:

    Due to the conflict with Ukraine and the subsequent stop on engine delivery, Russia has announced in August 2016 that the second batch of 3 frigates in the class will be exported to India.[9] These had been initially also intended for the Russian Baltic Fleet.

    This is what I saw on wiki for Admiral Grigorovich class.

    I think just like Vajpayee they expect 2nd term & might get burnt.

    Vajpayee had good plan in :

    Aquire Sukhoi
    Get Tejas running
    Aquire Mirage Prod Line

    Congress came:

    Sukhoi spares gutted
    Tejas more or less cancelled (in 2004ad was 2 yr from operation; took Modi 2 years)
    Mirage gutted, now Rafale debacle.

    I think we should have bought the Mistrals as well with make in India for the helicopters, instead of Apache. That would have been a shrewd move. USA likely made m777 & them a package buy.

    That development is troubling, USA & Russia know they can take India for a ride & push multiple semi useless armaments on it.

    I read somewhere that Prahar & Prthvi 2 were delayed by BrahMos lobby. Stuff like that makes you realize..

    If we get another BJP term good lot of work might get done.

    I will still be supporter of Dharmic Monarchy w/ technocrats running economy.

    Jai Shri Ram

  9. ~!@#$%^&*()_+ says:

    @Raja bhaiya, thanks for a couple of great one liners.
    _______________________________________________________________

    @Shaurya, why are you not convinced about the 400 km SAM but are convinced about the 120 km one? What am I missing. To me they both look the same. Both distances are over the horizon and in air at slant heights both are just numbers.

    Regards highly maneuverable targets, I don’t feel confident even about 25 km mid-ranged SAMs. Most of the test results and youtube videos out there are with non maneuvering targets. Besides putting a miss distance of 30-50 meters, in a turn at a leisurely 0.5 mach should get done in about a 3rd or 4th fraction of a second. May be even less if the SAM has not yet countered the turn of the evading fighter. Which seems entirely reasonable esp. with counter measures getting dispensed in the meantime. In such cases my confidence may get established only with QRSAM kind of ultra short burn time, very short ranged SAMs, backed by an excellent sensor network.
    _______________________________________________________________

    And there’s a Tu-22M3 proposal too!!!!

    I just hope they have a good plan to be able to deploy it, else we will begin to hear of metal chippings / turnings in the fuel tanks pretty soon. I admit I also like the idea of an SFC capability (not the stock IAF tribe) w.r.t. long range bombing. But the rumour is completely out of character.

    May be they really are tired of practicing 10 hour missions on Su-30MKI and now want to grow further. May be there is a method to this strange madness on display. Whatever it is I just hope this is not more of that tribute paying itch.

    And then 4 of these. How did they arrive at this number? May be the file was dusted off on Ganesh Chaturthi.

    @BK, may be they have your blog bugged and this is some elaborate personalized diplomacy $|it. Giving out echos of the suggestions or advocacy done here. In cryptic whale song like rituals. Chai par bula lo yaaron – hame nahi to BK ko sahi – Chai par charch ho jaye. May be the powerful people of India are addressing your fan-base – people like us. 😀

  10. Shaurya says:

    One thing to raise a huge cry over is the new proposed singe engined fighter RFI as a MII program. This will scuttle the only baby we have, one way of the other. A strong message needs to be sent that a repeat of Marut will not be acceptable.

  11. Sri says:

    Dear Prof. Karnad, Thanks a lot for your post. Can you please let me know the status about probable deals on PAK-FA fighter plane, SU-30MKI upgrade and another SSN leasing? Appreciate your help.

  12. MS says:

    I could repeat my comment of yesterday here too.

    Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on which side we are standing, the world has become very transparent in the sense that the real motive of the deal is clear to deal makers. The deal makers, be they countries, or individuals. Now, you are saying in the open that S-400 is to placate them. Many may feel so, considering what is there in news-the Pak-Russia interest and stuff.

    Why can’t we brainstorm the tactical and strategic moves/decisions we will make and how we will make- a coherent framework that will be led by the leader and supported by officials down below in their own locations. for example, if we have issues with spare parts of SU-30, what can we do to have a production facility in India. Play up different countries in the focus arena, but with a clear and benign intention. China does it all the time.

    The idea is to have an upper hand in the relationship by transparently being more trustworthy and capable. We could achieve it as the our prime minister is a very energetic leader. We have to be clear ourselves first how we would play it. I would like to see a strong India-Russia, and Indo-US relationship.

  13. MARUTI says:

    Frivolous to say the least. Willfully wrong projection of facts. Intentionally skewed analysis of national security. Best overlooked, or simply ignored.😟

  14. ~!@#$%^&*()_+ says:

    Re. “If BMD is such a concern, the Rs 39,000 crores would have been better invested in the indigenous development of a genuinely effective system to take on massed attacks?”

    There were times when western ‘experts’ would talk about boost phase interception, laser interception and brilliant pebbles waghera waghera. Most of our legacy officer class belongs to a period when they would with keen interest listen to all that nonsense. This was SDI-1984. After that period came the realization that this does not work as expected and still 30 years after people are attacking the same problem with the same tools expecting a different result. Whatever little progress was made was because of improvements in computing powers and the long range detections. Nearly none because of the advertised development routes.

    Why don’t they just tell it openly, why S-400 is a 3 missile solution and if the 400 km missile can taken on targets at say 40 km? And this has nothing to do with the system being or not being state of art. Its just that given the physics only this much will be achievable. Till the next set of technologies come up which will close the interception gap and make things even faster (not there currently).
    How can the S-400 be better than Akash itirations in setting out SAM ambushes. Pakis won’t even notice it and Chinese will always bring in better numbers – refer – bharatkarnad.com/2016/10/12/modi-policy-in-tatters/#comment-27525

    Anyhow now that we are determined to throw away home grown capability for imported ones I wonder, basis what people claim to be capable of taking on the Chinese. Obviously a country that spends close to 20% of its defence budget on R&D will always have an upper hand against an legacy item that spends 5%. And the results are there for everyone to see. Chinese are ahead of us in every single piece of technology or production thereof. The US claims that they have sanctioned military supplies to China. May be that is why the Chinese are ahead of us.

    India would be the first super power on earth made completely out of imported steroids which would certainly fulfill the long held wishlist of the Sanghis. To make India a Jagat-guru is a long held belief. First guru that stands on the legs of those he intends to give his guru-vision – ghor kalyug.

    Anyway, I just wish we had a better proposal on the Nuke Sub instead of this dull decision of S-400. I just hope BARC had already learnt everything there was to learn on that front because the Arihant like opportunity of being well-guided will never come there way again.

  15. andy says:

    A TOI report says:
    “The $4 billion pact for the four 4,000-tonne guided-missile stealth frigates also has some strategic content to it though it is not acknowledged in public. India’s quest to lease a second nuclear-powered submarine (the first INS Chakra came in 2012) for around $1.5 billion from Russia has been linked by Moscow to New Delhi’s agreement to acquire the frigates lying half-constructed at the Yantar Shipyard due to a cash-crunch.”

    Wonder how far this is true,considering that the Akula or Yasen SSN has not been mentioned(some reports indicated that India would pitch for the even more advanced Yasen class)

    Regarding the TU22m3 bomber ,as Bharat wrote in a report in the Indian express in 2014:
    “What showcased the IAF’s apparent institutional reluctance against transforming itself into a strategic force, however, was the decision by the Air Chief Marshal P.C. Lal-led regime to reject in mid-1971 the Soviet offer of the Tu-22 Backfire strategic bomber. The reasons trotted out verged on the farcical.

    As Wing Commander (later Air Marshal) C. V. Gole, member of the Air Marshal Sheodeo Singh Mission to Moscow and test pilot, who flew the Tu-22 informed me, he was appalled by the fact that he had to be winched up into the cockpit, and that the plane would have to takeoff from as far east as Bareilly to reach cruising altitude over Pakistan! (This and other episodes are detailed in my book ‘Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security’.) Evidently China didn’t figure in the threat perceptions of the Air Headquarters at the time, nor has it done so since then.

    IAF’s doggedly defensive-tactical thinking married to theatre-level capabilities have ensured its minimal usefulness in crises and conflicts.     

    Forty  years on, while China is bolstering its already strong strategic bomber fleet (of Xian H-6K aircraft) by buying off the production line of the most advanced Backfire, the Tu-22 M3, and prioritising the indigenous development of the four-engined, wing-shaped, H-18 strategic stealth bomber, IAF hopes its Su-30s assisted by aerial tankers will be a credible deterrent and counter against the Chinese bomber armada.”

    Maybe the IAF has had a rethink? Wonder who will operate the Backfire?Could it be the Indian Navy?

    The Backfire is a completely different species of aircraft compared with the IAF’s current fleet, and a doctrinal transplant would have to happen before the IAF brass can envision a role for a long-range strike bomber.

    The Tu-22M is an extremely large aircraft flown by a four-man crew of a pilot, co-pilot, navigator and weapon systems operator. With its phenomenal combat range of 2400 km, and a blistering speed of over 2300 kph (faster than most jet fighters), the Tu-22M is ideal for targeting aircraft carriers and large ships. Russian tests reveal that when a shaped charge warhead weighing 1000 kg was used in the Kh-22 missile, the resulting hole measured 16 ft in diameter and 40 ft deep. Not even the largest US Navy CVNs can survive such an impact, and at the very least will be out of commission of months.

    The Backfire’s primary weapon is the supersonic Raduga Kh-22 cruise missile. In high-altitude mode, it climbs to the edge of space (89,000 ft) and makes a near hypersonic speed dive towards its target. In low-altitude mode, it climbs to 39,000 ft (higher than most commercial airliners) and makes a shallow dive at Mach 3.5, making the final approach at an altitude under 1600 ft.

    Built at the peak of the Cold War when speed, payload and range mattered more than cost, the heavy Backfire is expensive to operate and maintain. The general consensus was that deploying it against high value assets alone makes sense. However, Russia used it with devastating effect against the Afghan Mujahideen in the 1980s, and in the 2008 Georgian War.

    Again, in the ongoing conflict in Syria, Backfires have rained freefall bombs, destroying Daesh assets as well as US-backed terror groups. These strikes have severely degraded Daesh strength in the region.

    Since the IAF has at least 400 attack aircraft, including the Sukhoi Su-30MKI, MiG-29 and Mirage-2000, that have Pakistan sorted, deploying the Backfire against Pakistan would be a huge overkill. Using limited numbers against Chinese land targets would be suicidal as Beijing has a robust air defence network bolstered by the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile and its Chinese knockoffs.

    The Backfire’s only conceivable deployment in India is as a maritime strike bomber against People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) assets, especially in the backdrop of growing Chinese naval activity in the Indian Ocean.

    Backfires operating from the Thanjavur Air Force Base in southern India – and armed with the 300 km range BrahMos – can comfortably strike naval assets up to Seychelles. They can also be used to target PLAN vessels operating in the South China Sea. The bomber’s ferry of 6800 km means it can reach Darwin, Australia, without aerial refuelling. Clearly, such an aircraft would be a huge force multiplier for India.

    If the media reports about India wanting a limited number of just four Backfires are true, then it would suggest they would be deployed in a maritime – rather than strategic – strike role. The bombers are equipped to receive data directly from spy satellites monitoring the oceans. India, which has a constellation of ocean survey and spy satellites, can access real time satellite intelligence and despatch the Backfires on ship hunting missions. The bombers can also be guided by scout aircraft.

    While the IAF’s timidity in adopting a strategic role is a likely reason for the repeated rejection of the Backfire, another factor could be forces rivalry. Air forces are highly resistant to strategic bombing being done by the navy or army. The Tu-22M being a specialised maritime strike bomber, it could – in the IAF’s view – be the beginning of the navy’s strategic air arm.

    The Russian bomber is certainly a game changer, but it doesn’t mean India should rush headlong into a deal. In terms of size, firepower and reach, it dwarfs everything in India’s air arm, but it should not be forgotten that the Tu-22M is a 40 year old design. It last rolled off the assembly lines in 1993 and the aircraft is well out of guarantee, so the delivery of spares might be an issue.

    Flight Global report’s that in 1991 the Tu-22M mission-capable rate was just 30-40 per cent, although it was not really a representative year because that’s when the Soviet command economy had collapsed.

    India should have bought these aircraft cheap as chips when the Soviet Union dissolved and Moscow was wondering what to do with 300 surplus Backfires. But costs aside, having a nascent fleet comprising just four bombers would still be a good idea as it would give India a rare glimpse into the world of strategic airpower.

  16. ~!@#$%^&*()_+ says:

    “We are satisfied that Russia understand India’s interest and they will never do anything contrary to India’s interest and I think there was a strong meeting of minds on this subject,” Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar said when asked about the Russian response to India’s concern over the recent Pak-Russia joint military exercise.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/…ls-Russia-old-friend/articleshow/54869399.cms

    Wonder if F.S. S Jaishanker can be found anywhere voicing such expectations from captain america.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

    Just today while revising some study material I again came across a claim on thediplomat dot com that India already has a few S-300. It is known that S-400 systems are capable of being back integrated onto the legacy systems. Some patterns of development and deployment of even Akash SAM suggest some ‘influence’ of Russian SAM philosophy. Because if this is the case then probably we need not fear so much for Indian BMD. May be our researchers are really stuck with a few issues. May be the Russians too would not help to see if we order the S-400 first. I mean I respect the Russians – respect anybody who stands up and gets counted for his country. But the Russians are not behind on this game of extraction of privileges. Too many ‘may be(s)’.

    Lets talk in certain terms. The chinese are not going to give one extra dime to anybody, much less the Russians. And if the rumours of side deals have any truth in them then Modi did get pretty much the same price for pretty much the same product. The need for S-400 is still doubtful esp. if we already have a few S-300 and the Indiian BMD and Akash SAM (which can be recapitalized). But if for 2/3 billion USD, Modi has successfully given just enough reasons to Putin to think through carefully the advise he must have been receiving w.r.t. ‘one new friend’ Pakistan then I must admit Modi’s good fortune has again turned the tables big time on the Paki plans.

    Off late I feel that even the Chinese do not want us to go rogue in Asia. Our long scope rivalry notwithstanding. What idiot would like to put a 46 billion USD sunk cost near ones enemy!

    But having said all this I envy Modi. How the hell can one man become so lucky! He gets a muft ka 50 billion USD bonus in oil prices, gets two good consecutive monsoons. Also escapes the shenanigans of the western acolytes that have infested our system since independence. Ended up giving new ideas to Putin for may be 1 billion USD (in terms of most amount of incremental premium paid). And in future is set to reap completely undeserved ‘credits’ for the growth of India.

    Manmohan Singh must be cursing his own luck – got the brickbats from everybody without having spoken anything. Now we know that Manmohan even threatened action to US, post 2008 attacks, but even that good karma went towards no gains in the ultimate analysis. What rotten luck.

  17. andy says:

    It’s really frustrating to note that the FGFA deal has been once again kicked down the road.On the one hand there’s the IAF moaning about depleted squadron strength and on the other there’s this very important deal which will catapult IAF in the cutting edge arena of fifth gen aircraft being constantly put on the backburner.To top it all there’s the RFI for a single engine fighter which probably is going to be made in country.What beats me is why this low hanging fruit of FGFA is not being plucked by GOI?The Russian’s have reduced the initial investment to $ 3.7 billion for three prototypes and technology,but after all this all we get is the following statement:

    “The agreement had been completed on our end, we are ready to sign it. It is now down to the Indian side,” Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec State Corporation, a Russian umbrella organisation of 700 hi-tech civilian and military firms, said here.

    “There are some formalities to figure out, but I think it will be signed by the end of this year,” Chemezov added.”

    Either the IAF should stop cribbing about depleted squadron strength or sign up for the FGFA!

    • andy says:

      As far Pakistan is concerned, the following says it all:

      “We are not delivering any modern aircraft and any military aircraft to Pakistan. We have made deliveries of helicopters, but those are specialised in transport and that contract has been completed,” said Chemezov.
      “No contracts or plans for any other military-related equipment to be delivered to Pakistan,” he added.

  18. Satyaki says:

    Bharat Sir,

    News now says INS Arihant is inducted. Does that mean it is with the K-4 ? Has the K-4 undergone enough tests to be operational ?

    • A single K-4 was fired on a depressed trajectory, more to test the FCS, etc in the Arihant, I suspect, than to validate the ICBM. This means many more tests (including to very long range) will be needed before the K-4 is operationalized.

      • Satyaki says:

        But the K-4 does not have Agni-5 type range, does it ? It was supposed to be around 3500 km officially.

      • But K-5/6 is rumoured to be a genuine ICBM! (Not K-4 — one of my senior moments! Sorry) K-4 is NOT ICBM.

      • Satyaki says:

        Bharat Sir,

        The K-5/6may be a genuine ICBM. But that will take at least 10 years to materialize. In the mean time, is the K-4 a Agni-III class IRBM or a longer range A-5 type IRBM?

  19. raja says:

    many…more tests. is it correct sir? bulava, trident and ours.

  20. raja says:

    HOW TO PLAY THE CHIPAK GAME?

    INTERNATIONAL:

    Reducing Chinese influence: Russia should be weaned away from china and relations with the US should be normalised. This will make China a lone power with no substrate to derive higher importance in the globe.The Russian president Mr.Putin on more than one occasion made public his desire that Russia should be identified as part of larger Europe. Also he made public that Russia doesnt pose any threat to the US. India should convince US and other European allies in this regard to bring about a quicker rapproachment of US et.al with Russia.The sanctions imposed by US makes Russia isolated and forces it to sell advanced arms to China and pakistan which threatens not only Indias military balance with its neighbours but also the balance of power of SCS countries with China.

    Allowing more investment for Russia in Indian companies particularly in oil refineries,steel and Fertiliser production companies which will increase Indian energy and food security and also remove the Russian fears of market blockades for its oil and gas. Introduce Russian automotive companies in India.

    Improving trade integration with ASEAN and increasing trade with pakistan.

    Bringing Srilanka, Bhutan,Nepal,Maldives,Bangladesh closest to India by any means forever.

    Actively support Balochistan freedom movement for its eventual separation from Pakistan.

    Pursue dam projects in India and Afghanistan to have greater leverage over pakistan in the long run.

    Offering Pakistanis educational opportunities in Indias elite educational institutions and not banning artists,sportspersons relation with India.
    NB: Parallely give more benefits to the pakistani general population through increased trade linkages, educational opportunities and increased work for earnings and strategically choke pakistan in the longer run.

    Integrate asian nations through religion.Make India the tourist hub for Buddhist pilgrims.

    Arm Japan, Vietnam,Indonesia, philipines with the appropriate hardware.
    Reduce or restructure imports from China and increase from ASEAN where the real benefits of manufacturing will not go to china.

    NB: Out of the two CHINA cant be militarily matched its futile.The smaller devil pakistan is the root cause. It need to be incrementally isolated, strangled in the long run strategically and people contacts, trade should be improved simultaneously.Pakistan will collapse under its own wrong policies.By concentrating on our own discipline and cornering pakistan strategically china will be weakened in the long run.The main purpose is to present different perceptions to the military and civilian population.
    By spending on militarisation we will lose development hence vis-a-vis china over militarisation is not recommended.
    NB: The refinery sellout will affect Iran and its implications on its indias relations need to be taken into account.

    DOMESTIC IMPERATIVES:

    Increasing foodgrain storage and strategic oil reserves a minimum of 5 times from present levels and maintaining the same.
    Indigenous arms (whichever proved its mettle) should be made the standard issue for the armed forces (Excalibur,Dhanush)in their respective categories. War machine building capability should be entrenched in India.
    Urdu and mandarin interpreters need to be trained in good numbers.
    Semiconductor fab manufacturing facility.
    A Clear arms acquisition policy not aimed at gaining geopolitical advantage is required as such policy will fail us both internally and externally.
    We cant match China militarily in the forseeable future (As Gen.Thimmaya said long ago and its true today also).Hence by piecemeal acquisition to satisfy foreign powers forex cant be frittered away for long.The long term growth of the IT business and protectionism and increasing development in the Middleeast will affect the forex inflow into india.
    Our forex reserves made out of mainly borrowings not earned as in china hence care must be exercised in spending them.
    Newer financial instruments for financing rapid nuclear power generation
    Transparent national accounts as doubts over govt. figures will cast a shadow on investments.

  21. Shaurya says:

    Good News. 2nd Akula leased acquisition is confirmed. Good that Russia is raising its equities with India.

  22. ~!@#$%^&*()_+ says:

    Russia is lowering its equity with India.

    Here is one Sambit Patra with his wishlist for Borei Class which must be sometime before 2014 because Commander S.S. Parmar who is replying left IDSA sometime in 2014.
    idsa.in/askanexpert/RussianNerpaclasssubmarine
    idsa.in/profile/ssparmar

    It is well known by now that Indian Navy wanted the Yassen class.
    [Executive Director of National Maritime Foundation Indian Navy Captain Gurpreet S Khurana says, “It may not be a bad idea to get the Yasen-class as the second boat. Its design is known to be based on the Akula, and yet it is more advanced and capable than its predecessor.”
    Read more: sputniknews.com/military/201609151045347626-india-russ-a-yasen-submarine/]
    [“But a still more impressive offer apparently made to India is the transfer of the improved Yasen-M class SSN — the most advanced in the Russian naval list.” – By Bharat Karnad refer – https://bharatkarnad.com/2015/07/09/yasen-class-ssns-offered-to-india/%5D

    But ultimately only Kashalot submarine of Project 971 Shchuka-B (Akula-2) is coming which would be in the ball park of the future Chinese SSN.

    Its not like Yasen class was completely denied to India. Its just that it did not and could not have worked out. Indian establishment aims at the top spot, does not even lands at second spot and ultimately is handed down the 3rd spot because that is what they deserve for the kind of monetary and strategic capital they want to shell out. Same situation exists with the Americans and European suppliers too. And this will keep happening till we increase the investments in the Real-IDDM category instead of relying forever on Offsets or ToT.

    Indian Designed Developed and Manufactured is the only way out of the mess. The catch is that even IDDM can be foreign controlled (through their offset subsidiaries). Hence that control factor is an additional challenge that our establishment will have to contend with, presuming they are upto it.

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