The situation after the daring terrorist attack on the army camp in Uri is a symptom of a basic malady of the Indian government’s and the Indian military’s inability to come to grips with reality that the State is in full-fledged covert war with Pakistan. Have always maintained that Pakistan, as an equal legatee of the doctrine of ‘kutayuddha’ (covert warfare) expounded in the Arthashastra, is a far more adept practitioner of this form of asymmetric conflict than India has ever been
This is so, I have argued in my writings and books (especially ‘Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy’) because Pakistan (like Israel) enjoys a very small “margin of error” and therefore is more proactive where national security is concerned, as its safety rests on keeping the bigger, better endowed, adversary unbalanced with strategems and tactics, such as periodic attacks on the latter’s military capabilities, less to hurt them grievously than to keep the enemy permanently unsettled. Whence, the seaborne terrorist infiltrators struck the shoreline hotels in Mumbai in 2008 rather than take out the bulk of the Western Fleet then at anchor a short distance away, in other words do a “Pearl Harbour”. It reflected and still does as the Uri incident shows, a fine-tuned Pakistani strategic sensibility — provoke India sufficiently to make a point but not so much as to trigger a war that would cost Pakistan plenty.
The main problem is Indian rulers’ traditional-historic complacent attitude nurtured by geography that there’s so much landmass to withdraw to that, as in the present case, NSA Ajit Doval’s “offensive DEFENCE” is always feasible. Any time DEFENCE is propagated in any guise, it is a guarantee of do-nothingism. India’s record bears this out.
The Vajpayee regime’s decision to do nothing after the terrorist attack in December 2001 on Parliament — the symbol of sovereignty, mind you, and the attack on the Kaluchak camp in the midst of the “general mobilization for war” (Op Parakram), other than mumble appropriate retribution, which has ever since become the stock non-response of GOI and haas never been prosecuted, a wrong signal was sent out to the Pakistan Army. It confirmed GHQ Rawalpindi’s long harboured assessment of ‘Hindu Lala’ India as too cowardly and callow to respond decisively, even when international law and the UN charter completely legitimated retaliation as an act of “self-defence”. (Article 51 states: “Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations”.)
Terrorist strikes have thereafter been launched periodically and with increasing impunity (Pathankot in January this year, and now Uri), with New Delhi each time reacting in the same manner: there’s a muffled threat to hit Pakistan at a time of India’s choosing, there’s the attempt by GOI — that will fail — to garner international support in order to “isolate” Pakistan, and a sudden burst of activity in terms of intensively manning military posts in J&K, etc., and once the temper cools and the ardour for action lost, things settle down to the usual. This leads one to wonder what the Indian Army units believe their role in J&K is exactly — considering there’s no effective perimeter security worth the name around their own encampments and depots — the minimum one would expect?
It reflects the complacency now deeply entrenched even, and especially, in the Indian armed services. How else to explain the fact that the security at military bases is so lax and that too in J&K — a live area of military operations — despite the continued threat from terrorists and, hence, an open invitation to any armed group to saunter into any camp, open fire, and repeatedly inflict an appalling exchange ratio — three terrorists finishing off 17 soldiers at Uri. Oh sure, the para-commando elements held as Northern Army reserve, will now wear their black patkas, daub black paste under their eyes, and go out on night-time retaliatory kill/destroy culvert here, blow up a bridge there missions, even as intended targets — the LeT and JeM camps and their inhabitants have been moved to safety to hinterland areas. And there the matter will rest. Until the next terrorist incident.
In the wake of Pathankot, the AOC was transferred — presumably, with no ill effects on his forward career progress, and this time the commander, Uri camp, will likewise be relocated. This will about sum up India’s reaction!
In the civil society meanwhile there are the predictable noises about the need for forbearance and measured response or, at the other ideological end, there’s the RSS General Secretary Ram Madhav — the Modi government’s go-to-guy for foreign policy advice, spouting vengeance and demanding Pakistani “jaw” for an Indian tooth, but being satisfied with the PM’s promise of severe action. Will wait and see what this action will be but be advised to not hold your breath.
The reason why Vajpayee did not order immediate retaliation — of an aerial strike on PoK targets in 2001, and Modi won’t do so now is because — you guessed it — our new found friend, ally, and strategic partner — the United States of America, which does not tolerate even the slightest terrorist provocation itself but is ready to counsel patience and conciliation on friends, and back it up with punitive means. If there’s any doubt that Washington will not countenance a violent and telling Indian military reaction, New Delhi should see what happens if Modi girds up his loins and actually orders massive and lesson-teaching military actions. But, of course, GHQ-R has covered that (nonexistent) possibility. It will indicate movement of nuclear missiles, which will be enough to freeze Modi in his tracks amidst the media hub-hub for caution, which the PM will use as pretext for doing nothing. Remember the previous BJP govt’s succumbing to “public opinion” to negotiate with the Indian Airline flight IA 814 Afghan Taliban hijackers in December 1999? New Delhi will once again be satisfied with the US wagging its finger at Islamabad, which will be heralded as a great diplomatic victory for a “responsible” power — India. One can imagine the Pak Army brass rolling around in mirth.
In the event, stirring calls for action such as by the well-meaning retired Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal as per his “four pronged” strategy (http://www.rediff.com/news/column/time-to-hit-and-hurt-the-pakistan-army/20160918.htm ) involving aerial and artillery strikes on PoK targets, covert ops against Pak Army capabilities and military infrastructure, but continued engagement with the civilian leadership and civil society in Pakistan amount to nothing more than the usual knee-jerk “do something” plea whose operative parts GOI will feel free to ignore.
Security Wise 
Brahma Chellany has advocated withdrawal from Indus water treaty. What are the difficulties in expelling Pakistan from SAARC? Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Bhutan should agree as they have suffered terror from it.
We all know there won’t be a military response across the border and ‘heating’ up the LOC with artillery fire does not help in achieving any objective so to speak. As before a local level response by Army is all that will be talked about. You should know better what that means.
But Mr Karnad what about SAARC and Indus Water?
Withdrawing from the Indus Water Treaty as I have argued will provide the precedent for China damming up the Brahmaputra and the Indus in Tibet. So that won’t help and is inadvisable. SAARC is a talk-shop worth little. And separating Pakistan from it — assuming it can be done — will require consensus, which New Delhi cannot secure.
Mr. Karnad, IMHO China has and will erect dams along the Brahmaputra and the Indus regardless of the Indus Water Treaty. The Zangmu gravity Dam is one such example. Unlike India, China acts decisively when its self-interests are involved. In fact, abrogating the Indus Water Treaty will send a message to all quarters and their supporters of India’s serious intent. I personally believe that this is a credible option which needs to be followed ASAP.
Mr Karnad, please bear in mind that if China were to take this serious step of damming up the Brahmaputra or the Indus rivers just because of little Pakistan, then it would invite our retaliation, particularly in Tibet. Now why would little Pakistan be worth that to China? I think the Chinese know that they would be pushing India into a corner if they started damming up the rivers that supply India. We need to literally test the waters – we need to drop the river flow to Pakistan and see how China reacts – no sense in giving Pakistan a freebie based on over-arching assumptions about China’s willingness to risk everything for Pakistan.
@Primeargument: India’s artillery assets are precariously thin. There’s plenty of money to waste on buying 36 Rafales for 7.8 billion Euro’s ostensibly for strategic reasons (ROFL), C-17’s, …….. But when it comes to upgrading the Su-30 MKI’s to the Super 30 level, procuring new Su-35’s, manufacturing artillery, setting up parallel LCA production lines, beefing up DRDO’s technical staff, etc. the coffers are dry.
Bharat Karnad, you have gone senile. The attack was on the administrative headquarters of the army camp. The soldiers attacked, were from the the “10 Dogra Regiment” and “6 Bihar Regiment”. Not the Para commandos. BTW, there is NO SUCH UNIT called the “17 Para”. Your ignorance exposes your evil designs. Of course, an old man like you is ready for a nuclear war for it is our future that will be destroyed. Not yours. Most probably, you will be safely closeted away in a western country and be typing furiously on your keyboard as to why the PM’s decision to go to war with Pakistan was a bad idea. The real dangers to our country’s security are people like you who masquerade as “Patriotic Hawks” but are actually just puppets who are paid by their masters to set this country on a destructive path, or shall I say, the same path that Pakistan has followed. Anyways, most of what you have written in the last 1 year or so has been absolutely shit. Just retire man.
@kanishkarsh: So you admit that your nuclear deterrence has broken down.
Of course. Check out my reply to Mr. Karnad to know why. That is if you care.
@kanishkharsh Some of you so technically squeaky people need to grow a strategic cell in your brains. First, Bharat has gracefully accepted some technical mistakes over the years – mistakes that are not material to the main message. If you have a technical message to point out, please do so with some civility.
You have a comprehension issue, Bharat did not say 17 Paras as a regiment/unit, the reference to the number 17 was to the number of initial casualties (18 now).
You further go on to attribute “evil” designs. Being senile and old and ready for nuclear war. You further accuse him of being “closeted away in a western country”. It is clear that you do not know his writings, his antecedents and affiliations and hence such baseless comments exposing your own ignorance. Strength conventional or nuclear is towards maintaining the peace. Weakness invites aggression.
Have to ask, how old are you? Take some advice, if you do not agree with a certain message, disparaging it with words like shit is a cop out. If you have it in you, make your points without a single disparaging personal remark or keep the peace. Thanks.
1.) Man, if you even pretend to assume that his reference to the “Special Forces” does not change the material of his writings, then I thinks, this will be my last reply to you. As for the strategic cell in my brain, thanks for the advice, point duly filed.
2.) My bad. It does seem that I have some comprehension issues.
3.) Don’t you think that the word “senile” conveys everything I think about his “contemporary” writings.
4.) I have not yet turned 18 if that is what you are asking.
5.) About his affiliations, only the word “Russia” comes to my mind.
Also, since people like you have the tendency to label questions about the factual correctness of a writing as baseless, I certainly would like to have a debate on the relevance,accurancy
1.) Man, if you even pretend to assume that his reference to the “Special Forces” does not change the material of his writings, then I thinks, this will be my last reply to you. As for the strategic cell in my brain, thanks for the advice, point duly filed.
2.) My bad. It does seem that I have some comprehension issues.
3.) Don’t you think that the word “senile” conveys everything I think about his “contemporary” writings.
4.) I have not yet turned 18 if that is what you are asking.
5.) About his affiliations, only the word “Russia” comes to my mind.
Also, since people like you have the tendency to label questions about the factual correctness of a writing as baseless, I certainly would like to have a debate on the relevance, accuracy and authenticity of most of Mr. Karnad’s writings on this blog written in the last 1 year or so. That is ofcourse only od you are up to/for it.
Thank You
kanishkarsh@ — I’ll let your comment on my supposed “senility” pass and refer you to shaurya@. I am indeed abroad presently (and will return to Delhi in a couple of days). My first info on Uri event was that it was an SF centre. My wrong. But whether it was or not hardly detracts from my contention about the habitual laxity that security around such camps falls into. If mil-concentrations are so vulnerable, who can blame the paramils and state police for being equally ineffective and non-alert. As re: Indian nuclear weapons and South Asian war, refer my ‘Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security’. But if at 750 pages you consider it too much an effort, than at least read my shorter writings on the subject. Incidentally, the nuclearized milieu is too supple and resilient to end in a nuclear exchange owing to India’s retaliation to terrorist attacks, as I have argued. And as to my CV details, please have a dekko at my bio (on this post or elsewhere).
Finally, you talk. The points about the state of your mental health, I believe, can be dismissed as an emotional outburst of course. Sincere apologies from me as I believe such language does not have anyplace in a civilised discussion.
Apart from that Mr. Karnad, do you really expect me to believe that. Your post came after more than 15 hours of the initial reports and by then, even conventional media channels were airing footage from the martyrs home and their complete bio data by then. And you are supposed to be a “Strategic Affairs” expert. If such is the case Mr. Karnad, then IMHO, you should first change your sources in a jiffy and then do some basic research before writing what is supposedly supposed to be blog focused exclusively on “Strategic Affairs”.
Moreover, according to my sources in the Army, the militants were dressed in military camouflage closely resembling the Indian Army standard issue BDU. They had rocket launchers which enabled them to launch their incendiary weapons at the POL dump from quite some distance. Furthermore, most of the jawans killed were roasted alive instantaneously in their sleep when their tent came in the way of the fireball and the heat from the explosion caused by the ignition of inflammable liquids at the dump. The temperatures reached in the explosion would have made even fire retardant material ignite or so I am lead to believe. Then the soldiers from the Dogra regiment opened fire on the terrorists. One jawan hit 3 terrorists managing to kill 2 on the spot before being martyred. Then the terrorists took cover on the second floor of the barracks. Normal units were then pulled back to form a security cordon and a SF team was airdropped to take out the remaining militants. Though this may sound jingoistic but the SF team literally managed to to take out the militants for breakfast.
Now after reading the above chain of events which broadly describes what happened at the base ( it may be wrong on a few finer points), you tell me what should my reaction be to a post by a writer who claims to be the “Foremost Strategic Affairs Expert” of this country and who manages to get the basic details about the attack wrong and further has the guts to leverage this information to malign the Indian Army on completely baseless grounds.
Indeed there must have been a security lapse. Sane people learn from mistakes. But painting an entire establishment as toothless and useless is simply too much. It is also in continuation to your characteristic attacks on our forces in which you have labelled them as corrupt, incompetent and what not. Further, most of your posts are aimed at promoting the sales of military equipment of one particular country which is slowly losing it’s relevance in Indian strategic circles also puts your intention to doubt. IMHO, you are still stuck in the Cold War era whereas India and Indians have moved on.
I have a feeling that you won’t be replying to this post. Prove me wrong.
Thank You
kaniskharsh@– Have been out of country since Aug 30 and was intimated, almost immediately after the Uri event, of the SF camp, which was so relayed as well in a newsreport (in TOI methinks). Hence, my bad. But the other points made remain relevant. I am a conservative of the Edmund Burke-cum-Freidrich von Hayek persuasion. The only thing that matters to me is India’s time and again missing opportunities to do the right thing to become a great power by acquiring appropriate hard power and using it in realpolitik mode and without a hitch in the manner I have related other great powers in history as having done (UK, Bismarckian Germany, Czarist and Communist Russia, Communist China), and not by relying on crutches afforded by other big powers of the day who will kick them away from underneath India if and when it suits their purposes. I was railing against Russia and reliance on Russian arms in the 1980s when GOI tilted that way — and at all times have pushed for and advocated achieving armaments self-sufficiency through indigenous defence industrial efforts even if it means courting risk (to diminish which, have plugged for megaton yield thermonuclear weaponry as cover), etc.
It would be wonderful if there were enough of the younger lot of Indian super-nationalists to form a “critical mass” of public opinion to push this agenda. I have done what I can over the years in this so far frustrating enterprise.
I perfectly understand what you stand for. Moreover, I have admired your stand in the 3 years of following you. But in the past one year, I have watched with an alarm at how quickly your standards were falling compared to your previous position. You may still very well be the most conservative strategic affairs expert in this country but just a quick look at your past writings would tell you how absurd you sound these days. More over, most of your posts since the last one years have shockingly large amount of factual errors in them. You have also started to level baseless and absurd allegations against our defense services. I know and commend your stand on indigenous weapons production and designing but that does not mean that we should only rely on Russian weapons even if they appear deceptively cheap at the first glance. A quick look at any CAG audit of the IAF will tell you the amount of money it takes to keep the Russian jets flying and the horrendous downtime of those Russian fleet. Moreover, more often than not, there is a complete lack of support from Russian side. Things have to be raised at diplomatic levels to get small things such as fuel compressors for the engines from the parent company. Such a treatment is humiliating for our forces. Also the fact that most of our fleet is Russian leaves an uneasy atmosphere at all times in the service headquarters. Therefore the GOI decided to diversify. IMO, there is no better option than the French in this regard. There is strong appreciation in the IAF of the support rendered by France and Israel during the kargil conflict. Besides, the Rafale is an excellent aircraft. I could never fathom why you advocated the MKI as a Rafale replacement when their jobs are quite different. You surely must be aware of the huge RCS of the MKI. Well, that signature makes it quite vulnerable to enemy air defense systems. The Rafale will beautifully complement the MKI in its objective of air dominance over enemy territory with its 500 km SCALP missiles and 150 km Meteor. Last I heard, the R-73 and the R-77 were quite short legged.
About the thermonuclear weaponry yield, you must have heard of the not-so-secret nuclear city coming up in the southern part of the country which as per the initial reports seems to be exclusively for weapons with a yield above 500kt. The problem with our country has been that in the last few decades, coalition compulsions have taken priority over national security. The effects of such disastrous policies are being felt now as the present government finds its hands tied behind its back due to the decisions taken by previous governments. The present government though, I believe is on the right track and is taking the right decisions( though nowhere as radical as those suggested by you.). What a person with your experience must understand is that the PM must do whatever he can within the present system while gradually overhauling it. Anything more and we will see the situation witnessed in Delhi presently. This I cannot also fathom why you have a beef with the present PM when you should be his biggest supporter as both of you have similar ambition and vision for India.
About your wish better participation of the younger generation in the “Super nationalistic” agenda, I would say that you would be sorely disappointed for at least the near future as most of our media is left wing controlled and junks out communist agenda. But trust is changing rapidly in the current situation. In the next 10 years, provided that Modi gets a second term with a majority, you should see a humongous increase in the number of youth supporting your views on the nation.
I do feel that you should be more optimistic about India’s future and place in the world but this is your blog and your supporters certainly feel the same way si be it. You may not believe it but I am among your well wishers as you used to be one of the only strategic commentator whose views I could completely subscriber to. The other being Ajai Shukla. But the past one year has seen a rapid erosion in the quality of your posts.
Thanks for taking the time to reply.
Apologies again for the initial uncivilised outburst.
KS
@Kaniskharsh
Just one question ,do you talk in the same vein to your elders and betters back home?The man was writing about strategic matters probably since the time some folk on this forum were stil in their diapers.Even if you don’t concur with his views calling him senile and using words like s.it is no way to express your divergent viewpoint.What the hell is’masquerade’as patriotic hawk?You of course seem to prefer the likes Ashley Tellis who unlike @Bharat after getting a American education prefer to stay back there having nothing to do with the country of their birth.This forum is for discussions on strategic matters not advertising ones culture or lack thereof.A modicum of civility and etiquettes would highly appreciated.
Mr. Karnad has been writing about strategic affairs from long before even my parents met. That will be a right point. But on this forum, that is indeed foolish and irrelevant. Previous writings do not exclude him from being chastised on the internet. That sir, is one of the perils of maintaining a blog. As for the language, I believe apologies are in order. The use of the political incorrect and uncivilised language was intentional so as to at least elicit a response from Mr.Karnad since most of my comments raising some alarming discrepancies in his writings have not been replied too. As you can see, the strategy has yielded results. If you would care to know the rest of the rationale behind my words, please take a look at my reply to Mr. Karnad.
‘But do feel welcome to disagree with the views on this blog. A bit of civility is all I ask for.’
These are @Bharats words from a reply he gave another person, I think they say a lot about his approach to criticism (valid or otherwise is besides the point)Since he’s open to being ‘chastised’as you term it, there was no reason for someone to get personal or abusive.Just because someone points out a few mistakes on the blog( which I’m sure would be graciously accepted and rectified)the presumption by the said person should not be that he knows much more about strategic matters than @Bharat,it was for this purpose that his years of experience in this sphere were highlighted by me,calling this foolish and irrelevant does not let you off the hook for having ignored these facts in the first place. If nothing else this vast experience deserves a bit of respect,which was clearly lacking, exibited by getting personal ,whatever be the intended purpose or rationale.
Be that as it may,since you have accepted and apologized for using inappropriate language one doesn’t have any bone pick with you.All the best.
Absolutely well said brother. My views of this author are same along with you. Though by “foreign masters”, I narrowd it down to only one country: Russia…
If that’s the case why do you keep reading his posts
@Rahul(Kol), @kanishkarsh,
CPR has disproportionately bigger funding from much the same people that are undermining India (mostly assignment specific ref. cprindia.org/sites/default/files/CPR_Grants_FY15.pdf). Comparatively ICSSR grant in aid was mere 1.2 crore in 14-15.
And that is why @BK has gained respect from people who read him. Because he does not care for the funding so long as he can have his say. Mostly these thinktanking and forum running and politiking is opaque about fundings. CPR is not. For example Modi will never admit to the sources of funding for the successive elections he won. Modi loves Raghuram Rajan so much so that he appointed another import from USA into RBI and supported Raghuram Rajan expressly and impliedly. And it was Raghuram Rajan who, while avoiding having to drop interest rates, among other things, said that Rs. 60000 crore has been injected into the system. So that should give you enough background as to why Modi is import parast and introduced LSA by stealth. No doubt these forums, thinktanks and politiking are meant to track people too. But that is also why @BK has gained respect over the years. He shows how you can at least speak the truth without giving a damn.
@kanishkarsh, half the country has at one point or the other had somebody from their family in the armed forces. So keep your family business to yourself. Either identify in public like @BK does, so we can assess for ourselves the dependencies on account of lifestyle, naukri, business, politics or please spare us. Also don’t forget to ask your family about:
1) How come a navy that loads torpedos every other day messes it up just when the LSA has to be sold to the public?
2) How 1 pilot can be allowed to junk two sukhois and also have another pilot killed just before some major import from USA had to be announced.
3) How the father son duo get to face the same jammed stick problem, only a few decades apart. With the son getting some bravery medal for it. What was it that the father missed out on.
4) How the various imports from Western countries have strengthened the forces to a degree that they can kill 19 terrorist for our 18 soldiers killed. And how that makes them feel in this game of counting marbles.
5) How come the same equipment that works well for the whole world works worthless for them.
6) How the officers today claim that in 1962 the airforce was not properly deployed and what was the training that the airforce had done in Himalayas before 1962.
I will give you more once this much of course material is covered in your family.
BTW: The jaw for a tooth was first uttered by Arun Shourie. Ram Madhav should credit the source. In this case, it means, we fight to capture Haji Pir pass – once again. It will be easy to justify this localized action as being taken to “defend” against a popular infiltration route. Here you go a clear goal, achievable and localized with some benefits due to the topology of the region. Mr. PM, please issue your orders.
@Shaurya: Ram Madhav couldn’t chew gum and walk at the same time. These clowns in Delhi can do nothing and will do nothing.
Mr. Karnad, it does not require that a State have a small “margin of error” to be proactive. Proaction to a large degree is a state of mind. The US, Russia, and the PRC all are much larger than India and are pretty proactive. The fact of the matter is that GHQ Rawalpindi’s assessment of India as too cowardly and callow to respond decisively is a fact that is “set in stone”.
^&…@ — “margin of error” is one among many explanations.
On cue: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Any-military-action-by-India-will-be-condemned-by-Washington-says-former-Obama-adviser/articleshow/54410871.cms
Such is the price of being a House Negro state, which Modi has brought India to and made official policy by kowtowing on the nuclear liabilities issue, the signing the LEMOA, freezing the strategic program, the Rafale deal……………… Now, the preparations for signing CISMOA /COMCASA has begun, and the necessary “feelers” and “probes” are being sent out from the “usual quarters”:
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2016/09/india-and-us-face-tough-negotiations-on.html
Our forces get hit in the East and the reaction is a against foot soldiers or foot terrorists. Some say Modi and Doval killed 100 in the East.
Today they face a test. Give them some space. I am not counting on these people either but whether we like it or not these guys still have at least 3 more years with them.
But they too must realize that this really is a test. Because if they don’t act then the message that will go out is that the action in the east was only on the crutches of US. While the inaction in the West was because of the newly acquired vassal status with US. Even if this message does not reach the common people, those who track these things will know the personal capacities of these people.
There is only so much a bigger gang of monied supporters can do for your ‘image’. Now is your time to live beyond an image and in substance.
@~!@#$%^&*()_+: One need have no fear that the Indians will militarily respond in any way. There will be some impotent “chest thumping”, and after a short while the entire episode will be forgotten. Modi is confident that non-action will not hurt his image since there is no alternative to him. A nation of 1.3 billion+ cupboard of even a modicum of real leadership is as bare as the number of gold medals it won in the latest Olympics. In any case, Modi has other more important tasks on his hands, such as choosing the sari he will wear during his next meeting with Obama. Look at the bright side of things – when pushing for normalization of Sino-US relations during the Nixon administration, Kissinger made his famous statement that a Nation of 1 billion people with nuclear weapons cannot be ignored. Modi has proven Kissinger wrong, and that is a singularly historic achievement! Modi has proven that a nation of 1.3 billion+ people can be treated in a manner akin to the way a dog treats a lamp post or a fire hydrant.
CORRIGENDUM: The last sentence in the above post should read as:
” Modi has proven that a nation of 1.3 billion+ people with nuclear weapons can be treated in a manner akin to the way a dog treats a lamp post or a fire hydrant.”.
You are factually incorrect sir when you say that attack took the lives of 17 para commandos. The 17 martyrs were from the Bihar and Dogra regiments. No Para Commando has been killed. Kindly stand corrected.
Ravi Singh@ — please read my post again. What I said was that 17 numbers of the paracommando or, as per your correction (incorporated in the text, thanks!) of the Dogra and Bihar regiments were killed by the three terrorists in the Uri attack; not that the killed were from 17 Paracommando.
I am afraid, India has neither the means nor the gumption to react to the proxy war imposed by ISI. Hot pursuit deep into a waiting Islamic Republic of Pakistan is not an option (yet).It is hard to digest for those stringent and jingoistic voices (“tooth for a jaw”), but neither Indian army, intelligence,nor IAF has the training or equipment to overcome Pakistani defence forces.It takes an US commando and the factor of surprise to do so. Unless those armchair “nationalist” are willing to cross the border themselves or send their own sons.Further you need to garner all out diplomatic support at the UN.Chinas condemnation is for sure, but now also the njet from US. Kashmir is waiting to be internationalized. Billions for the US shopping cart didn’t help, perhaps after signing some more Lemons and spending some more trillions, US may abstain to condemn India at a UN vote. Everything not necessary, if you had a Maneckshaw, Jacobs or Indira today.
Believe me, our SF units and their supporting infrastructure are more than capable of strikes inside the “Porkistan Republic Of Pigs”. Patience is a virtue of the great. Indira Gandhi and Sam Manekshaw did wait for more than an year before cutting Pakistan into two within a weak. They too were facing public anger similar to the present day on Pakistan. But they withstood that pressure and captured the ultimate prize. Their names were etched in History books forever. And this is why I should ask you to underestimate Modi and his vision at your own peril as Modi certainly won’t leave that office without doing something that will make hand him immortal as hero who finished Pakistan once and for all. But again, if you could have that much knowledge about India, Indians and the Indian Armed Forces, you would not have written what you wrote. India will strike. This will either result in Pakistan’s annihilation and then peace or a vassal status of Pakistan and then peace. But peace we will have. It is just a question of when rather than if.
What the stringent and jingoistic nationalist don’t want the army or the country to be doing is waiting like lambs for the slaughter. The armed forces are for security of the nation, if they are going to be demoralized by political ineptitude or indecision what guarantees the nation’s security? As for the nationalists crossing the border themselves or sending their sons,what’s the guarantee that in the next terrorist strike you or your family will not be victims?no one wishes that, but the possibility cannot be discounted. The problem has to be rooted out come what may,we cannot say we are OK with loosing innocent lives in terrorist attacks but not OK to sacrifice lives in punitive actions that might deter or nullify future terrorist strikes.The bitter pill has to be swallowed if the nation is serious about its security.
I mostly concur with your argument. But yet, if push comes to shove, you would easily disavow pretensions of nationalism and national security. Alas, if only you could save yourself and your family. It’s human.
Don’t be too sure about my disavowal,not everybody is spineless plus no one needs to worry about the safety of my family they are as safe as safe can be and shall remain so till one is around ,this much is guaranteed.What are -pretensions of nationalism and national security?’ Kindly refrain from projecting your own reactions on to others you know nothing about.
Reblogged this on securityanalystblog.
A father (may be 70 years) of a soldier from Rajasthan killed in the Uri attack said something to the effect that – every one of our soldiers should kill 10 of theirs. There was no mistaking that he was not talking about revenge and rather his utterance was for the general capacity of the country and the military. The father was sad but he was not seeking revenge. A Sanghi channel turned that into a call for revenge both in its written banner headline and the general commentary handed out pro bono for our benefit.
Some other TV channel informed that India will attack in POK. Obviously the political class is still more concerned about the sensibilities of US. Can attack on POK be sold to US as a challenge to China? Nobody can deny that POK occupation is challenged by us so let us attack in POK.
In 1965 Pakistan was using the exact same political logic when they attacked. Shastri opened up the whole border. Not that I am advocating going to war. But the difference in thought process cannot be ignored either.
India is still a gulam nation, we think like gulams and act like ones. The Malik is long gone but the gulam will expend the rest of his life yearning for sweet memories of making a living, serving the master. If you remind the nation that the malik is gone the nation will get angry and fulminate about FDI and Global Comity of Nations and High Moral Ground.
Modi ji, you have embarrassed us enough. Pls do not do anything in haste. Exercise a sense of independence. This country has taken a lot of hits through the ages. We did not take these hits to go after dana chugga. We did that so we can look forward to a day where all this can be put to a permanent end. Permanent end is not the same thing as you kill a few of my soldiers and I kill a few of your soldiers or worst still your terrorists. Pakistan is not doing this because they have an inherent strength to stand up against India. Pakis are standing on another man’s legs. He is the one embarrassing you. Recognize that other man. Don’t just lunge at the windmills. We have been your voters and campaign contributors. It is sad for us to watch you oscillate between cluelessness and hyper-activity. Recognize your target and your war. Seek strength from the faith of millions who saw some strength in you at some point. You are surrounded by the India Shining Crowd. Please send these sundry NRIs to their homes, with due respect, there is more than enough talent inside India to seek advice.
Brahmaputra river system has about 70% waters originating inside India. All 100% is shared between India and Bangladesh (majorly).
Indus river system has very little originating inside India. If you shut off the taps in Indus the like cannot be done in Brahmaputra.
But what if the Chinese make another diversion of Indus say towards Xinjiang. Agreed it will not be doable for several years. But neither will the shutting of taps in Indus be done before several years.
Merely abrogating on paper is nothing. What good diversion do you have for the waters. May be you could supply water to parched Delhi but what if you later on decide to give water again to Pakistan, as part of some peace deal, will you.ask Delhi at that point to let go off water. You could use it for agriculture in Haryana/Punjab but that still faces the same problem in future as Delhi, should you go in for a peace deal.
The Pakistan war has already been won. There is nothing there. If a loser is still taunting you then he must have a good enough reason to feel capable. Try to assess why he feels confident and capable. Who gives him this capability. Work out an action-plan towards that. This galli ka badmaash will stand down if his masters ask him to.
Russia has called off the joint military exercise with Pakistan scheduled later this year as per TOI print edition, once again proving that if there is one all weather friend of India in this murky scenario it’s the Russians.High time GOI stopped taking them for granted.Everyone knows where Pakistan draws it’s strength from except some Nitwits in GOI cozying up to the very same people,Indias strength has to be it’s own conviction about its abilities ,not drawn from other fair weather friends.
Raving,ranting and threatening won’t get you anywhere.The Pakistanis,instead of worrying about how to improve their own lot are hell bent on sabotaging India’s rise They would be better advised to improve their own incoherent policies, rather than taking on the might of the Indian state,this message has to go through clearly to the low lifes across the border.Messing with India has to be done at their own peril,this message has to be drilled into the Pakistani psyche.It’s really mirth inducing when the real losers brand India as the losers,In their own convoluted thought process they really seem to believe this lie,one can only have disdain and contempt for such fanciful ideas germinating in unstable minds.
The war of 1971 still goes on, only it’s a low intensity conflict,it’s our failing not to have delivered a knockout blow when the time was ripe and we had the Pakistanis on the mat,it was only their whining that made us treat them with magnanimity,in hindsight it was misplaced. The next time there shouldn’t be any mercy.
From what I read, Russia hasn’t called off the military exercise with Pakistan. They have only changed the location where that will be held.
As of now, Russians are beggars. They cannot risk antagonizing India and billions worth of defense deals with India for a few practices with the Pakistanis where they would anyway not learn anything. The Russians are behaving rather like businessmen by hedging their bets rather than an old and a trusted friend. They have their own interests to look after and we have our own. We are not indebted to them for anything as we have repaid and sometimes overpaid them for their favours in every way possible. Move on from the past. The course ahead for Indian is an independent one and if that means balancing Russia and USA both, so be it. We will do what lies in our best interests. For now, a superficial alliance with the USA is required. China did the same thing 30 years back and is now powerful enough to stare back at the USA as an equal. We will use anyone and anything as step towards super power status which is about 60 years away at the current pace. That has to be shortened.
Kaniskharsh@
Re:-Move on from them past’
Do you mean just ignore the Russians? Even the US of A cannot afford to do so,do you think India can?If you do, then you are ignorant of the sheer scale of the kind of hard power Moscow weilds.Ever hear of the SS18 ICBM?At another place on this forum I had put out the following write up:
In the entire history of the human race, there has never been a weapon as destructive as the Russian SS-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). To understand the true power of this doomsday weapon, try comparing it to the nuclear warhead the United States used to obliterate Hiroshima.The Hiroshima bomb had an explosive yield of ‘only’ 15 kilo tonnes (KT) or 15,000 tonnes of TNT equivalent, and yet it killed 70,000 people. In comparison, a single SS-18 carries up to 10 separate nuclear warheads of around 750 KT each. Some missiles are armed with one humongous 20,000 KT warhead.
During the early years of the missile age, the United States led Russia in technology and numbers but by the early 1970s when the SS-18 started entering service in significant numbers, Moscow had closed the missile gap and started pulling ahead inexorably. In 1990 Moscow had a stockpile of around 40,000 nuclear warheads (vs 28,000 for the US) but by just using the 3,000 warheads on its SS-18s it could wipe out all human life in the continental United States in 30 minutes.
Codenamed Satan by NATO, the SS-18 weighs a gargantuan 209,000 kg. The highly accurate Russian missile can not only penetrate and destroy American missile silos, which are hardened to 300 psi, but its own silos are hardened to a stupendous 6000 psi making the missile all but impregnable. Amazingly, for a missile of its weight and length (102 feet) it can sidewind (move in a series of S-shaped curves to evade antimissile defences) and its micro-electronics are hardened to function even under nuclear attack.
The Satan’s reported ability to dig up strategic missile complexes became known as America’s “window of vulnerability”. The frightening power of this missile sent shivers down the collective spine of the American leadership, and quickly forced Washington to the negotiating table. The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks of the early 1970s resulted in a drastic slowdown of the hitherto uncontrollable arms race.
The SS18 is followed by the R-36M and now RS-28 is being developed.
Russian ICBM RS-28 Sarmat, which is meant to replace the outgoing heavy silo-based Soviet R-36M missiles, dubbed “Satan” by NATO, are likely to begin in summer of 2016. The RS-28 has been in development since 2009 and is scheduled to start replacing the old ICBMs in 2018.
The new missile, weighing at least 100 tons, will reportedly be capable of carrying a payload of up to 10 tons on any trajectory. This means an attack on a target could be made from any direction, i.e. RS-28 could start from Russia and fly in the direction of Antarctica, make a circumterrestrial flight and hit targets on the other side of the planet from an unexpected direction.
This is just one weapon system we are talking about.
You can talk disdainfully about Russia now,forgetting how the 1971 victory ,you were chest thumping about elsewhere, would have been impossible without them or the rupee rouble trade,where they supplied India with weapons and we paid in rupees,because a dirt poor India didn’t have the foreign exchange to pay them in other currency.But there’s one thing you can’t do, ignore them.It’s better to have them on our side than otherwise.
@andy
Oh my god, not another Soviet fanboy. While it is imperative to be thankful to the “Soviets” for all their help in the past, that should not restrain us from diversifying our partners in the present world. Also, the Soviets sucked blood out of us in lieu for the favours it had extended to us during our time of need. They sold de-rated equipment to us and still do the same. The present use of the Russians is limited at the best. Still, we sign multi billion dollar worth of defense deals with them. About their strategic forces, well, the less said the better. The Sukhoi-30s they sold to us were the most basic variants. They were upgraded mostly with Israeli help. Even for that, the Russians were paid a handsome royalty. The Vikramaditya saga is well known. The Mig are a legend of their own. And I am talking about every type of Mig possessed by the IAF. Plagued with poor engineering that makes most of the planes sitting on the tarmac uselessly. Even then, HAL could only come up with a solution after lots of Israeli help and lot of diplomatic pressure on the Russians. Thus when the IAF, fed up with this attitude of theirs wanted to diversify its fleet, our very own Mr. Karnad labelled every IAF personnel as being corrupt and being bought out by the west. What does that say about him ? Indeed, his stance on indigenous production is commendable but he manages to promote Russian products in every post while also managing to vilify the IAF. Ignoring Russia is not possible as most of our equipment is still Russian and we still need their veto in the UN. But we need to send them a message that at this time, they need us more than we need them. While they are certainly not dispensable, they are also not indispensable. India has a lot of options today and we will do whatever it takes to further our interests.
And btw, Russia did not help us a lot while we were developing our own missiles.
I would reiterate my point and say that Russians are acting like businessmen and should be treated as such. No alliance is permanent in statecraft. And nostalgia is strictly forbidden.
Thank You
Re:’About their strategic forces, well, the less said the better’
Hoo boy!This you say after the SS18 write up,I mean did you even read it?If you did and still make the above statement then I know it’s pointless discussing anything with you because you want to argue just for the sake of argument.
Re:’And BTW Russia did not help us a lot while we were developing our own missiles’
Oh Really?Then who did help India?Pakistan? See how silly it sounds!Both your statements are bordering on preposterous. Anyways, one doesn’t have the time or the inclination to indulge provocative statements or try to change irrelevant mindsets.Au revoir!
I do have to ask this now, how old are you ? I think you are too old to have the gumption to reply with a structured pointbin a debate. But then of course, you are a follower od Mr. Karnad, I cannot expect anything sensible from you.
As for your SS-18’s, just ask your friends in Moscow as to how many missiles were in an operational condition. You will have a heart attack if you know how your loved “Satans” were actually rusting away in their silos.
About our missile program, I think a certain gentleman who went by the name of “Dr. A.P.J Abdul Kalam” should be thanked along with the DRDO. Your Russian friends conspired with the Americans over cyrogenic engine technology transfer to ISRO. If you still believe that they helped us in anyway in our missile program, then god help you.
I am always ready for a debate. That is of you are up for it. Come on man, lend some justice to your name. Don’t behave like our very own AK.
@kanishkarsh Good, now that you have had your non-emotional say (i guess you can be labeled as a Modi Bhakt?) and used your strategic cells, it will be clear to readers who’s thinking in strategic terms serves Indian interest best and who’s does not.
In reply above, it was hardly material to Bharat’s article on who were the forces/units that took out the terrorists. But, maybe to your under 18 brain (your answer) it is all that matters and the fact that Modi is now in power and hence everything changes!
Bharat’s article was making a couple of key points.
1. A serious breach of security took place at an installation in the region and the repeated occurrence of the same, brings to question the efficacy of the procedures and personnel. Ref: http://www.ndtv.com/video/news/news/uri-attack-something-may-have-gone-wrong-admits-defence-minister-manohar-parrikar-432128?video-featured
2. The past actions of GoI has not provided glowing examples of dealing with x-border terrorism (Pathankot being an example) and a repeat of the same is likely again.
3. There is an over dependency to adhere to Washington’s script, instead of an independent one – you may not know, how the CFA on LoC came about after the parliament attack, Parakram sequence.
Bharat’s personal antecedents are very well known. He is an Indian at CPR – an Indian non-partisan think tank. He has spent most of his working life in India. He has no personal or professional ties with Russia. His choice for choosing Russian origin equipment in selective cases is purely a reflection of available choices and the best choice that serves Indian interests – mostly to do with the fact that Russia does not have an over lapping interest in Asia or globally and hence desirable to deal with. Their economic and political leverage is minimal and their wares not the best but good enough to meet our threats at an affordable price. Bharat answers to no special interest in government or outside and is not beholden to anyone. His views are independent and non-partisan.
What Bharat is, is bold and controversial. His style has an American cultural fair to it (maybe due to his education there), in your face disagreement that in Indian culture (especially the government) has a hard time to digest – strange given our history to be argumentative. Take away the style and digest the message with emotions in check. To those who know his works, the intent is always the same and the objective unwavering – India as an independent great power. The irony is he has spent a life time pointing out why it shall not be so, any time soon – yet!
Please stop peddling lies about Bharat or his antecedents and post your disagreements with civility, as you have now done. Thanks.
Wow man, that was indeed below the belt. I don’t think you should have even mentioned my age in your replies as that is irrelevant and inconsequential. For all you know, maybe I beling to a military family and know which country actually helps us and which country milks us dry while masquerading as our all weather friend. Anyways, back to your points.
1.) Ofcourse there was a mistake somewhere. Things usually do not go wrong without one. That is why probes are carried out and lapses are fixed and procedures are updated. The SOPs are always changing and the terrorists will always have the initiative. But that is too much to comprehend for your, I am sure, limited strategic cells. After all normal people only remember ones mistakes. But you do not paint an entire institution with the same brush because of it. Doing that means you have evil designs.
2.) Agaon, you show a clear misuse of strategic cells present, if any, in your brain. If you are even an amateur strategic affairs buff, you must know that it takes a lot of time to cultivate and nurture deep assets. A decade of neglect of anything related to national security does not help either. But at the same time, this government is doing all it can. Examples include diplomatic offensive and for sure a covert surgical strike in the near future.
3.) Washington script. Wow. Your amnesia certainly prevents you from remembering that the same government you accuse of towing the Washinton script had conducted a thermonuclear test and showed a middle finger to Uncle Sam.
About Mr. Karnad’s antecedents. Well, being an Indian doea not prevent him from being loyal to someone else. It certainly does not prevent our defense personnel as Mr. Karnad has pointed out repeatedly. Also, what lends him credibility to comment on every military equipment from guns to submarines. Fighter jets to tanks. Radars to EW equipment. All this without having even seen how those things actually work. And he expects us to place his bookish knowledge, which is wrong most of time, above what the experience of a pilot or a submariner. That is indeed asking a lot and you certainly have lack of common sense if you are believing it.
I don’t know why you think my points are lies but a look at Mr. Karnad reveals that he is obviously diaconnected with ground realities. The only reason that India is not a great power yet is because India is not a major economy yet. Everything else is a farce and should be treated as such. When Mr. Karnad tries to compare Chinese military with the Indian military, he should know that China has an economy which is 5 times larger than India. First, the economic gap has to be bridged. Only then military gap can be bridged. Everything else is immaterial. That is precisely why India cannot go to war with Pakistan today. It will set our economy back by atleast 10 to 15 years. We will have to bide our time because we do not have any other choice right now. And the pakistanis know it and you also know it. Do you want India to become what Pakistan has become. Think about it.
Thank you.
Kaniskharsh@
Normally I tend to ignore trolls but the lack of sense being displayed here is just too much,
Selling derated equipment is standard practice amongst arms suppliers Google search why the p81 Poseidon is the biggest lemon purchased by the IAF,also the m777 ULH apart from its weight is a throwback to WW2 model of operation, totally manual and needs some 10 people per gun,if it ever comes in range of mounted guns with WLR support, it will be hammered and destroyed.You have no problem buying super expensive and extensively derated Western equipment but cheaper Russian imports are a big problem.Why?Because there are no Kickback’s.
The SU-30MKI is the first Russian aircraft designed in collaboration with a foreign customer. It was born when the IAF decided to acquire the Su-30MK and include modifications according to its needs.As is obvious it was the IAFs decision to buy bare bones Su30 and modify them with French avionics and Israeli systems.The first batch of (Su-30MK-I) of 8 aircraft would be delivered in 1997. These were ‘standard’ Su-30s (a development of the Su-27UB) and contained 100% (probably) Russian components and are primarily air-superiority aircraft only. These fighters were first delivered to India at Lohegaon AFS in March 1997. They were inducted into the IAF on 11 June 1997 by the then Prime Minister, Inder Kumar Gujral. These planes are currently in service with IAF with serial nos SB001 to SB008 in the No. 24 Hawks squadron based at Lohegaon AFS.
The second batch (Su-30MK-IIs) of another 8 aircraft would be delivered in 1998 and would be fitted with Sextant Avionique’s avionics from France, liquid crystal multi-function displays (MFDs), a new flight data recorder, a dual ring laser gyro INS (inertial navigation system) with embedded GPS (Global Positioning Satellite), EW (Electronic Warfare) equipment procured from Israel’s IAI (Israeli Aircraft Industries), a new electro-optical targeting system and a RWR (Radar Warning Receiver).
The third batch (Su-30MK-IIIs) of 12 aircraft was delivered in 1999 and feature canard foreplanes
The fourth and final batch (Su-30MKIs) of 12 aircraft would be delivered in 2000 and would add the AL-31FP turbofans.
The first 32 aircraft already delivered would then be upgraded to the Su-30MKI variant, in a phased manner. This plan was thought of because Su-30MKI would be the world’s first of its kind, and not all technologies were completely developed in other Russian designs like the Su-35 and Su-37.
Deal II (September 1998) : The IAF decided to buy 10 additional Su-30Ks for US $277.01 million (equivalent to Rs.1187 crore) and thus bring the total number of IAF Su-30s on order to 50. These 10 were originally destined for Indonesia, but due to the financial crisis there Indonesia was unable to take delivery. The first 4 units were delivered in June 1999. These have updated electronic warfare suites, PGM (Precision Guided Munitions) capability and possibly updated radar. These planes are currently in service with IAF with serial nos SB009 to SB018 in the No. 24 Hawks squadron based at Lohegaon AFS.
IAF was to take delivery the 2nd batch of aircraft(Su-30MK-IIs) in 1998. However this was postponed due to delay specifying the requirements for the advanced avionics (French,Israeli and Indian). In March 1998 the agreements were signed with the concerned firms. The crash of the first Su-30MKI prototype T-10PMK-1 (“blue 01”) at the Paris airshow did not help matters.
Later it was decided to take delivery of full-standard Su-30MKIs directly and hence doing away with the upgradation and to avoid different grades of one aircraft in service at the same time. Also, the development of the Su-30MKI was nearing completion and first buying some airframes and then upgrading them is an avoidable hassle. Hence, all future deliveries would be Su-30MKIs. The first 4 Su-30MKI arrived in India, again at Lohegaon AFS in semi-knocked-down (SKD) form on June 22, 2002.As is amply evident ,the IAF got exactly what they asked for from the Russians,so what are you cribbing about?
MIGs helped India win two wars 1971 and Kargil ,the spares situation deteriorated due to the breakup of Soviet Union, their non availability led to downtime, not as you mentioned poor engineering,India still flies the MIG21 more than 600 of which were manufactured by HAL,how is Russia to blame for shoddy manufacturing by HAL?Plus who decided to keep flying the MIG 21 which is basically a 2nd gen aircraft first inducted in the 60s albeit heavily upgraded in the Bison varian..In 2016 you still have to keep flying a plane with 60 year old tech,who caused this systemic failure? the Russians?
Regarding your theory about economic might being the basis for great power status, ever wonder how the Russians are able to stare down the USA with a $1.3 trillion economy compared to$16 trillion of the USA?It’s mainly due the strategic forces that you deride so immaturely and their relentless focus on hard power.
As for the SS18 s rusting in their silos as per a report in Strategy page 2015:”Russia continues to test launch older RS-18 and RS-20 ICBMs. Russia still has over a hundred (out of a 1980s peak of 360) RS-18s in service and expects to keep some of them active into the next decade or until replaced by the new design. The test firings for most of the last decade have been successful, and other quality-control tests have come back positive. Despite the post-Cold War collapse of the Russian military, cash and quality personnel kept going to the missile forces, which are the final defense of the largest nation on the planet.”So there!
As for Russian help in the missile program, the prithvi is based on the Russian Scud,the help provided was clandestine especially since 1993 when Russia was browbeaten by the US to stop aiding India’s missile program.Still Forbes reported in 1998 that India was getting help from Russia in development of the undersea launched sagarika.As per your read of the situation the Brahmos is completely indegenous isnt it?You don’t mention it but India’s Arihant class SSBN development is extensively aided by the Russians evidenced by scores of Russians present at the launch of the same boat.If you think money can buy everything try buying nuclear submarine tech from the Western countries, they won’t part with it for love it money.So dont be ungrateful and stop undermining Russias contribution to Indian security.
So next time you come trolling here do some basic research.Oh and BTW why don’t you ask your sources in the armed forces top why their top brass have systematically degraded indigenous efforts for weapons development such that more than 70% of DRDOs efforts have been rejected by them?The reason is the ‘C’ word that so gets your goat,would be better for everyone if you get your facts right, rather than wasting everyone’s time by indulging in juvenile antics using provocative language. As for my age it’s none of your business.
@kaniskharsh
Re:’About their strategic forces, well, the less said the better.’
you display a complete ignorance of facts by making such a statement,its worthy of being ignored but I shall make a final attempt to show how Russian strategic forces are the very best in the business.Since Russia’s primary adversary is the USA as also the sole superpower in the world,let me chalk out how the strategic forces of Russia will take on the USA:
According to data exchanged on October 1, 2014 by Moscow and Washington, Russia has 1,643 deployed strategic warheads, compared with 1,642 for the US. Marginal difference in numbers but Russian land-based strategic forces have an explosive yield that is an order of magnitude greater than anything in the US armoury.
Moscow’s primary deterrent weapon is the mighty SS-18, a single one of which can destroy an area the size of New York – the state, not just the city. Of the original 360 more than a hundred remain operational with upgrade.
Russia has another trump card up its sleeve – its supersonic bomber fleet of Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers. These Mach 2 plus aircraft can take off from well-defended airbases located deep in the heart of Russia, fly over the North Pole, launch nuclear-tipped cruise missiles from safe standoff distances over the Atlantic, and return home to watch the destruction on CNN.
That’s assuming CNN will be around. For, the Russian strategic bomber fleet can singlehandedly wipe out every major city in the US.
It is because the Americans know the capability of Russia’s nuclear forces that they have tried hard to eliminate the doomsday weapons like the SS-18 through arms limitation talks.
In a land battle with NATO forces in Europe the following will be Russian tactics:
Before the use of strategic weapons, Russia could cripple forward NATO bases with tactical – or battlefield – nukes. Russian military doctrine emphasises the use of small-yield nuclear weapons as a war fighting tool early on in a conflict in order to stun and confuse NATO forces, impacting their ability to think and act coherently.
After tactical nuclear artillery decimates forward deployed NATO military troops, Russia could deliver small-yield warheads via intermediate range missiles that could devastate the next line of military bases, while limiting civilian casualties. At this point the US would be faced with the option of retaliating with strategic weapons and face a devastating response from Moscow. A good guess is the option won’t be used.For, no American president would risk a single US city for a dozen European ones. John F. Kennedy didn’t risk it in 1962 for the same reason – the loss of even one US city was too many.
How reliable is the US Strategic Nuclear Command? Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton both “reportedly lost the launch code cards that presidents are expected to have on them at all times – Clinton for months, according to a former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. Carter allegedly sent his out with a suit to the cleaners”.
In any conflict – more so in a high stakes nuclear standoff – morale, training and discipline are key factors. Russian officers who have the job of deciding when and where to aim their nuclear missiles include PhD holders who are required to think on their feet. On the other hand, American personnel who have the same role are beset with alcoholism, depression and cheating.
Nothing can sugar coat the crisis plaguing the US strategic forces. In October 2013, Major General Michael Carey, responsible for the command of 450 nuclear missiles, was fired after drunken behaviour on a visit to Russia. Days earlier, another military officer, Vice Admiral Tim Giardina, with high-level responsibility for the country’s nuclear arsenal, was relieved of his duties after he was caught using counterfeit gambling chips at an Iowa casino.
Think that’s frightening? Check this out. A US Air Force general who supported the command mission to provide nuclear forces for the US Strategic Command was an alcoholic. General David .C.Uhrich kept a vodka bottle in his desk and repeatedly drank on duty, so much so that another officer told investigators that “if he did not have his alcohol, the wheels would come off”.
The rot has trickled down to US missileers who have a culture of cheating on competency tests, endangering the readiness off American ICBMs. Again, in February 2014, the US Navy revealed it was looking into allegations that enlisted sailors cheated on tests involving the nuclear reactors that power its submarines and aircraft carriers.
The US strategic forces are also suffering from systemic neglect, with its ICBM bases in North Dakota and Montana reporting “leaking roofs”.The missiles who work in blast-proof bunkers located 60 feet underground, are forced to defecate in buckets and urinate in jugs, and bring it all back up at the end of 24 hours. How ready these personnel will be when they have to react to a Russian missile strike is questionable.
On the other hand, Russian Strategic Forces are treated as the very elites in the military. The quality of Russian personnel can be deduced from the actions of Russian strategic forces officer Lt Colonel Stanislav Petrov. On September 26, 1983, a Russian early-warning satellite indicated five US nuclear missile launches. Tensions were high between Washington and Moscow after the downing of a South Korean airliner weeks earlier, and Petrov had only minutes to respond. With little additional information to go on, he deemed the readings a false alarm, reasoning that “when people start a war, they don’t start it with only five missiles”.
This is precisely why highly qualified personnel matter. When you’re placed squarely in the cross hairs of the enemy’s nuclear missiles and you’re holed up in a bunker 60 feet below the earth’s surface, then nervousness, insomnia and depression are part of your daily life. Unable to cope, less educated personnel will abuse alcohol and drugs and even exhibit criminal behaviour. On the other hand, educated and motivated officers will keep their cool even in the event of a thermonuclear showdown.
For, a nuclear war may not necessarily involve a quick exchange of ballistic missiles. According to War Scare: Russia and America on the Nuclear Brink, by Peter Vincent Pry, Director of the US Nuclear Strategy Forum, the Russian Strategic Forces are trained to “launch pre-emptive or retaliatory nuclear strikes, survive a hammer blow from a massive enemy nuclear attack, launch follow-on nuclear strikes, and supervise military operations in a protracted nuclear war, expected to last weeks or months”.
In such a drawn out, harrowing scenario, Russia’s nuclear warfare specialists clearly have the edge.
Anyway you look at it the Russian strategic forces are better equipped than their counterparts else where,so if you think they amount to nothing, better think again.
Russians troops have landed in Pakistan for the so called military exercises. This is the Russian way of showing a middle finger to people like you. No one is an all weather friend on statecraft. The priorities of the Russians have changed and so have ours. But people like you who are still stuck in the cold war are always ready to keep us from making new alliances.
The new alliance partner you are so gung ho about has been kicking the butts of people like you since decades.Since 9/11 they have given more than $30 billion to Pakistan apart from numerous weapons that provide Pakistan the guts to do terror attacks like pathankot and uri.So what are you gloating about?Better take some Ibuprofen it must be hurting when you sit.
As I said, there are no permanent alliances and friendships in statecraft. You would understand that if you even had something resembling a brain. But since your IQ less than the room temperature in celcius, let me spell some things out for you. India does not have to choose either Russia or America. It needs to use both and then dump them both when they have outlived their utility. With Russia, trust will take about 2 decades and for the USA, it will take a little more than that. If we go on like we are going presently, we will have a economy and a military-industrial complex large enough by then to be truly independent in strategic terms. As of now, we are at the mercy of every other nation for must of our military needs. What you need to understand is that we are on the same side here. The Russians have their own agenda and the Americans have their own. It is high time we stop getting kicks by flaunting alliances with countries we have left behind economically (Russia) it are poised to surpass in the mid term future (USA). The USA is not the sole super power in this world by playing dumb. Gaining some experience from them is not going to do any harm. They did the same with the British and we will do the same with them. That is inevitable. Whether you like it out not. As for Russia, they continue to have involvement in our country’s top secret military projects. That needs to change in the next 10 years if we are to ever come out of the stranglehold they have on us currently.
Remember before replying that both of of us are Indians. India should come first.
Ah!Now that the topic has diverged,someone is waxing eloquent.Had nothing to say when all your pet theories were blown to pieces did you?Too bad I was just getting warmed up!But not so fast,Did you say Ajai Shukla was your favorite?Well this is what he wrote in 2014 regarding the poor serviceability of the SU30MKI:
It’s the IAFs Base Repair Depots who are to blame because they do not keep adequate stocks of fast moving spare,as he wrote in October 2014:
“For decades, the IAF has accused HAL of poor workmanship and maintenance. At the MoD meeting on Su-30MKI serviceability, HAL turned the tables on the IAF.
The MoD was informed about serious problems with the IAF’s management of spares. By standard norms, a fighter fleet consumes 5 per cent of its worth in consumables and spares each year. By that benchmark the Su-30MKI fleet, currently worth about Rs 69,000 crore — 193 Su-30MKIs at Rs 358 crore per fighter — should consume spares worth Rs 3,450 crore annually. Yet, IAF orders from HAL add up to less than Rs 50 crore, including ground handling equipment.
Without competent inventory management by the IAF, and with spares ordered piecemeal when defects arise, Su-30MKI fighters spend weeks on the ground awaiting spares.
To ensure that 13-14 per cent of the Su-30MKI fleet is not grounded for want of spares, HAL has stockpiled spares worth Rs 400 crore in Nashik. According to S Subrahmanyan, the chief of HAL’s Nashik facility, the inventory is based on a study of consumption patterns of Su-30MKI spares over the preceding five years.
HAL says this buffer stock includes spares that are still purchased from Russia, because low consumption volumes make indigenisation non-cost-effective. Even so, non-availability of these spares could ground aircraft.”
So IAF blaming Russia for inadequate spares supply is counterintuitive, when they themselves are the culprits.
Were you complaining to Bharat about ‘the horrendous downtime of those Russian fleet’?Well ,now you know why it happens.As I said earlier ,do some basic research before you start expounding them.
What you clearly need is a lesson in good manners.When you are on the mat and all your arguments have been surgically excised, you fall back to your old ways of using provocative language and making personal remarks.When everything fails ,bring in nationalism.Listen kid ,let me just say I don’t need lessons on nationalism from a dimwitted vole out of his hole. If you are spoiling for a fight you’ve certainly come to the right person but there are certain netiquettes I follow and discussion with the following kind of people is not included in them,read it carefully maybe it will be an eye-opener for you.
You are plain lucky that I have tremendous respect for Bharat and don’t want to transgress his hospitality by being uncouth like some other folk therefore I’m not going to answer your next load of BS because of the following, read it carefully it’s specifically meant for you:
Timothy Campbell of Trollwatch says when trolls are ignored they step up their attacks, desperately seeking the attention they crave. “Their messages become more and more foul, and they post ever more of them,” he says. “Alternatively, they may protest that their right to free speech is being curtailed.”
“The moderator of a message board may not be able to delete a troll’s messages right away, but their job is made much harder if they also have to read numerous replies to trolls. They are also forced to decide whether or not to delete posts from well-meaning folks which have the unintended effect of encouraging the troll.”
So what can be done about trolls? “Do not feed the troll” is a simple formula. Attention is oxygen for trolls so if they fail to provoke you they will get more and more abusive.
A Canadian study reveals that trolls are more likely to have narcissistic (egocentrism and preoccupation with prestige), Machiavellian (tendency to deceive and manipulate), psychopathic (lack of empathy and inhibition) and sadistic (pleasure of inflicting pain or humiliation on others) personality traits.
The best way to deal with such denizens of cyberspace is to resist the temptation to respond to their arguments. As readers get more about netiquette they will learn to ignore trolls – just like tourists learn to ignore hawkers peddling useless trinkets.”
Yep. You are a keyboard warrior. I will give you that. As for “waxing eloquent”, I don’t think that is even the correct word for it but anyways. I did not want to fight with an Indian but since you have so clearly demonstrated your loyalty to your Russian masters, I have been left no other options. Did I not mention Ajai Shukla in same line as Bharat Karnad ? It is pretty obvious of what I think of him as well but you obviously have a lot of trouble digesting plain english. As for your mindless replies, here is some food for your thought. I am quoting the CAG here btw.
“The 218-page CAG report tabled in Indian Parliament Dec. 18 notes that the operational readiness of Su-30MKI was low due to high rate of AOG (Aircraft on Ground), low serviceability and less achievement in flying hours.”
“The Su-30MKI suffers from technical problems in the fly-by-wire systems and radar warning receivers, the IAF official said.
The poor serviceability is mainly on account of lack of spares, which come from Russia. IAF has lost six Su-30MKI since it received the first batch in 2002.”
” “IAF has changed the maintenance drill of the Su-30MKI after finding that there are maintenance problems with the engine. So far, around 35 engine failures in the Su-30MKI have been noticed, including failures on account of power plant,” another IAF official said. ”
I wonder why the MKI is the favourite punching bag of every CAG report. The Mig-29K or the Mig-29 UPG is no different with an even worse serviceability record. Also an interesting point to note is that why do not every other jet of none-Russian origin in the IAF’s inventory suffer from such problems. If the IAF’s inventory management is at fault, it should be applicable to other planes as well. It simply obvious that Russian aircrafts simply defy every rule in aircraft maintenance known to the IAF and also the Indian Navy. Oh btw, guess who came to our rescue even this time. Nope, not those blood-sucking Russians.
“India is sourcing spares for Su-30MKI fighter aircraft directly from France and Israel as Russia is facing a shortage in spare parts supply, Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar said in Parliament on Tuesday.”
The tenor of your arguments clearly state who needs “lessons in good manners” OLD MAN. As for your respect for Bharat Karnad, that is upto you. What can you do anyway besides not reply to me. Come on “OLD MAN”, you are just getting warmed up. Right ? We will say who cools down first. As for attention, I have more attention than I can handle. Moreover, since you have already classified me as a troll, there is no need to hold back the punches any more. “OLD MAN”. You don’t know what trolling actually is. Clearly you will have to be taught the actual meaning of trolling.
This is OT, but there is a very interesting article on the Scorpene leaks in India Today:
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/scorpene-data-leak-case-indian-navy-the-australian/1/754033.html
@Andy
I will not be surprised if Russian have decided nothing of the sort. Why should they abandon Druzhba-2016? Even now there is no official Russian confirmation on this.
This could easily be a way of driving a wedge between India and Russia. Not that it needs much help considering the worms on our side. If this is the case then it is an exceedingly clever move by the very people who have undermined us to turn the blame elsewhere.
My advise to Russians would be break clean with India just as they did with the Chinese in 1959. Once that is achieved the present dispensation in India, whether loyal to US or to Devatas, will be forced to stand its ground. If it performs, well and good, if it does not a new start can be made by us. With this blow hot blow cold nonsense we will end up with a Balkanized India. Russians have more than enough resources, by itself &/or with China, to influence even more people inside India, than the US does. This great game remaining outside India is an absolute necessity otherwise we will end up with bigger more internecine wars then just the partition. Pakistan is the erstwhile part of India that allowed itself into these Great Games and no nation howsoever powerful, can survive its people fighting among themselves. Nothing goes of Americans and Russians and Chinese. All else actually gain with India going down. Americans will get easy bases inside India and its acolytes in India will be happy too. Chinese will never get any competition ever and they will retain their bases in Pakistan. Who loses except us. Only Russians lose by a relatively minor support against the Chinese.
If anything we have to learn to stand basis our own strength. People don’t mention it but South Korean and Japanese forces are in several critical ways better and bigger than Indian forces. Still these countries end up as side kicks. Abe can only admonish his more vocal people for being too ultra-nationalistic while South Korea has to live with a divided Korea. There big forces did not prevent them from this fait accompli.
@~!……
Russia knows better than anyone what’s in her own interest,parting ways with India is not going to happen anytime soon.As for official confirmation of the said joint mil exercises between Pakistan and Russia,we need to wait and watch don’t we?
Wasn’t talking about Russian interests. God has placed Putin for that.
Its Indian interests that I am worried about. Esp. ones that go beyond elections and even a series of terror attacks. That, I am convinced cannot be helped by turning ourselves into an incorporated entity with all shares held by outsiders that then becomes a cause for action on account of ownership.
There is an eternal essence to this country that cannot be fathomed by or recreated by legislations, social engineering and even changes in rulers.
How advocating that Russia break away from India helps Indian interests is beyond comprehension anyways it’s such a scenario at the present time that one need not waste anymore time discussing it,we shall see what happens when such an eventuality does occur.The current situation is pretty complicated as it is without having to worry about the balkanization of India(which is the fantasy of GHQ Rawalpindi) it’s never going to happen,India’s inherent resilience will make sure of that.India has withstood insurgencies in Kashmir, Punjab, the Northeast and naxalites these have achieved next to nothing in terms of separation from the motherland and no other insurgency will be able to break up India in future as well.So save the alarm raising for Pakistan and China both of whom have lost no opportunity to stoke the separatist fires in India to no avail eventually.
‘Khud ka Koi thikana nahi aur doosre ka ghar barbad karne chale’.
This about sums up the Pakistani states attempts to destabilize India with consistent terror strikes.Inspite of losing all wars with India,having initiated them in the first place,they still have the temerity to keep attempting India’s break up,
As former ambassador G.Parthasarthy writes today: ‘They are convinced that prising Kashmir from India will lead to India’s inevitable fragmentation, restoring to them what they believe are the glories of the Mughal Empire.This may seem pipedreams,but we would go seriously wrong if we do not recognise this reality’.
Now can anything be more ridiculous than this?This is why Pakistan’s breakup into smaller States should be attempted by India.There is considerable resentment in Pakistan against the domination of Punjab.Baluchistan,Sind and Khyber pakhtun are witnessing army operations against their own people.If a cross border strike is not palatable in Delhi at least stoking the fires in Pakistan’s own restive provinces should be taken up with alacrity,pay back the ISI in the same coin of state sponsored terrorism.It will have a telling effect on an inherently unstable Pakistan eventually leading to its own disintegration.This seems to be the only way to make the low lifes realise their folly in attempting to destabilize India,apart from the military option.
No doubt Pakistan is very unstable and if you can you should fragment it even further. But with every fragmentation you are left with a purer form of the same thing. And this thing has had 1500 years to evolve into what it is. And it is an ideology that says all failures are due to inadequacies of Muslims to follow Islam while all successes are due to competence of Muslims in following Islam.
Intervention is a usable strategy where you have to destablize a stable society.
But with an inherently unstable society I would not be very confident of extracting incremental benefits using a destablization intervertionist strategy. OTOH even stabilizing such a country is not our business and should not be pursued.
Pakis don’t much care for their own people. Islam is what they care for. You can also use Islam against them but there is still the limitation of ever smaller incremental benefits considering the Good-Islam-Betrayed by-Bad-Muslim framework of strategic rationale. Using this you can ensure loyalty of most Muslims forever.
I have given thought at times to our Pakistan problem and I cannot ignore the fact that nearly everybody benefits with a Pakistan noose around our necks. That is what it was invented for in the first place. Over the years those who benefit have been the prime reason for Pakistan being of that character. I would like to start from this point.
Regards interventionist destabilzation the same will be implemented regardless by Doval with his offensive-defence. It seems like a reasonable theory but somewhat late in time. May be around 1965 against Pakistan it was a valid idea. But then Shastri ji would have differed. In 1971 it was used to good effect and appropriately backed by an all out war at the right opportunity. Offensive-Defence or US styled interventions are good but not good enough for all seasons.
Lets say Pakistan divides further, you will then get a smaller Punjabi-Pakistan with Nukes and even purer form of the Good-Islam-Betrayed by-Bad-Muslim. With this anybody who pretends to be helping Momins can be an ally and anybody can be branded an enemy by playing up real/imagined slights to Islam.
Doval sahib has to come with a solution and he thinks an offensive defence is best. Since time has put him in the driver’s seat let him do something about it. But that does not mean we should not develop other plans if the interventionist destablization does not yield results. Because this could easily be turned into our own disability. Some time down the line people will say we did not succeed because some people were not committed to offensive-defence or destabilization.
Islam is the second largest religion in India, with 14.2% of the country’s population or roughly 172 million people identifying as adherents (2011 census).With such numbers in India what can be done about radical Islam?Can’t wish them all away.In your theory you conveniently choose to forget Bangladesh ,which after the breakup with west Pakistan is not overtly anti Indian(no matter what some radical elements in Bangladesh have to say about India)One could find such elements in India’s Muslim population as well.In short Bangladesh is much more manageable today,away from the Punjab dominated West Pakistan.If you really want to take on Pakistan you would have to ignore their nuclear bluff.
All their shenanigans in Afghanistan are to gain strategic depth,to avoid being encircled by India on one side and a pro India Afghanistan on the other ,which clearly shows their insecurity regarding the geography of the country. With Sind ,Baluchistan and KP breaking away ,their worst nightmare would come true and then in reality they would be strategically constrained by geography.The Punjabi Pakistan on its own would be easier to deal with for India ,no matter if it’s even more radicalised(if at all that is possible)
But of course this is in the realms of fantasy ,as is the breakup of India,but India does have more chances of success in breaking up Pakistan (with the precedent set in 1971)than do the Pakistanis in breaking up India,which they have tried to do with no success thus far,the ‘eternal essence’ of India you talk about has ensured it’s survival in the face of implacable adversary’s for a millennia and will do so for the next millennia as well.
Re. “In your theory you conveniently choose to forget Bangladesh ,which after the breakup with west Pakistan is not overtly anti Indian(no matter what some radical elements in Bangladesh have to say about India)One could find such elements in India’s Muslim population as well.In short Bangladesh is much more manageable today,away from the Punjab dominated West Pakistan.”
I agree to this overall assessment. But tell me if these BDs and Indian Muslims will not turn Momins if given encouragement. All western concepts and religions and fundamentals are essentially to avoid the final denouement/conclusion/facts. If we keep looking at the problem from the western perspective then BDs and IMs will look like a solution. But if you are willing to see that they have already traveled a considerable distance away from their own true histories you will end up with the unsavory possibility that they will feel forced to distance themselves away from India’s future too. People like M. J. Akbar understood this when they said IMs are the new SCs. Not that I wish it all to be so, but its just that my flimsy wishes are no match for the flow of time and rightly so.
We have already seen how once a group begins to find a separate peace or a separate progress they tend to undermine the country. The dispensation that got formalized since Vajpayee is different from the IMs and BDs in only one aspect and which is why Indian interests are being undermined since last 16+ years. IM/BD are looking for a separate peace while these Vajpayee ki aulad are looking for a separate progress. In fact at one point IM/BD, long long back in history, were also looking for separate progress. Likewise in future Vajpayee ki aulad too will be seeking a similarly separate peace. And that is why I rail against Modi’s LSA and import-parasti. Deep down Modi too knew of his own weakness when he tried to hide it with ‘Sabka saath sabka vikas’ or ‘Suraaj’. All he was aiming for was to cash out on the Discounted Cash Flows of the country and distribute it among his followers and then hope for trickle down. For a generically clueless strategic leadership that we must live with this is actually a smart thing to do. I do not want to deny them the full measure to their incompetence. But despite this, even these jokers will require a Plan B. Not so much because their Plan A will fail but because their Plan A is lame. So to get out of their lameness they or in their absence the rest of the country must exert again.
Which is where the push for indigenisation comes in and the need to say no to LSAs et al. And which is why Modi and his accolytes who, without exception, also end up as American accolytes should feel responsible should the LSA becomes a cover for inaction in the case of Uri.
The real need is that, whatever the sacrifices, we must at some point end attacks on our people. This simple need to be acknowledged gets burried in ‘time & place of our choosing’, ‘munh tod jawab’, ‘kadi ninda’, ‘border shellings’ and ‘head hunting’. Kya yaar, sab kuch chalega par main thing nahi chalega. Because the strategic community is compromised. If you have a lot of converts in a kingdom then Amber ka raja will off course, look like a patriot.
Re. “If you really want to take on Pakistan you would have to ignore their nuclear bluff.”
Calling your opponent’s bluff should be done when he least expects it, because he will have a lot to lose at that point in time. Today nearly all of Brass from both sides of the border have their offsprings in US. And the civvies are all expendables, especially so in Pakistan. India at least has the breadth of geography. Pakis don’t have even that. So yes you could enjoy a favourable exchange ratio. But what good is a strategic community if they cannot even come up with a solution and merely amble along hoping that the organic growth of India will hide their general incompetence. Both India and Pakistan are not even owned (commercially speaking) by the people of these countries. What does the Paki leadership lose should you try to call their bluff? Successive leadership of India has felt helpless when Pakis went nuke? To talk today of calling the bluff is hypocrisy, even if doable. If these bravehearts who suggest so were not listened to when the problem was smaller and they had better chances, what chance does this bluff-calling has today. Today these bravehearts are only a veil for several other incompetent people. Nuke them when you can and don’t talk till then, not even about calling the bluff. And admit that there are a hundred different ways of getting your way, none of which is working only because of general incompetance and laze.
I am sure you find my views pessimistic. They are designed to be so. I am not showing you the optimistic side because the existing structure does not owns it and cannot lay claim to it. They can benefit from it, being heirs to the same history, but it is not by them for them or of them. But still, tell me something, was not Pakistan created and nurtured for exactly this foregone conclusion – to make India pliant. In fact wasn’t China also nurtured (even if not created) for almost the exact same reason – of being used to play off one Asian country against another. And so long as this goes on do you think these terrorist attacks will stop from any side against any side.
Let me call it quits here. I am turning too preachy and seems like there’s another fire somewhere.
I am not going to wax eloquent here, but suffice it to say there are plenty of holes in Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine for India to exploit till the MAD threshold is reached,as Christine fair ,expert on South Asia points out in her interview to India today,”I have never heard any Pakistani say they will never send a terror team because India has nuclear weapons “.
She says India’s nuclear arsenal should in fact give it immunity and impunity to to prosecute sub state terrorism sponsored by pakistan.
See more:
http://m.indiatoday.in/story/uri-terror-attack-pakistan-india-nuclear-war-christine-fair-terrorism/1/769343.html
Just wondering …. When Modi mentioned about that 56-inch chest, whether he was referring to the male one or the female one? Looks like Pakis will help us find out now !
First on air force base and now on army brigade camp.Next, India might be waiting for similar attack on naval establishment. Pakistan truly upholding its ‘thousand cuts’ policy, initially on civilians and now targeting defense uniform.
Assumption of saving future of a nation by sitting quite in present may prove devastating. Generation after generation it will penetrate deep in souls of Indian masses that India is a soft country. All these attacks are on the mind of prospering young Indians that ‘how much you are going to develop, politically, socially, economically? One day some one will enter into your house and end your life’.
This problem does not need antibiotics or paracetamol. It needs a complete surgery because this wound is rotten with bacteria (which even started growing at home). A measured and coordinated counter is the need of time whenever such attack happens.
In my personal opinion, India have good quality and quantity of assets planted in Pakistan. India must use intelligence through them and technology to chalk out a clear cut plan. Precise use of special forces and aerial offensive at least in PoK is a viable option as it is not a violation of sovereign Pakistani territory. A quick influx of personnel to carry out operation at selected safe havens of terrorist without forgiving Pakistani rangers if comes in line of threat and flash return must be the boundary conditions of any plan.
Isn’t it a shame that it takes a Frenchman to write something like the following, at least he cannot be branded a Hindu fanatic by the secular crowd,
See more:
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/francois-gautiers-blog-for-toi/hindu-power-part-ii/
What goes around comes around. Toffee candies from Pakistan along with lunch boxes with made in Pakistan embossed on it is presented as an “irrefutable evidence”!? Denial of human rights abuses in Kashmir has led to this. Blaming others is always the easy way out. I’m sure that “Spy Pigeon” saga is still fresh. My advice, please get a life and cons it of your closet of paranoia about Pakistan
Dear Mr. Doval,
This post above by Ahmed Arslan, is what your Dossier-Dossier has reduced India to. Also you are requested to kindly not reply, Mr. Doval. Instead prepare a new dossier to be presented as a counter-dossier to the dossier being given by Nawaz to the UN cabal. Bomb pakistan out of existence with dossier bomb.
regards
Annexure – firstpost.com/world/pakistan-to-share-dossier-of-indian-brutalities-with-un-secretary-general-pm-nawaz-sharif-at-unga-3014748.html
It appears that the Rafale deal has been closed:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-21/india-said-close-to-announcing-8-billion-euro-rafale-jet-deal
A splendid performance by Feku Modi and the Make/Fake in India policy.
Now, the Modi regime is congratulating itself on this tainted Rafale deal:
http://bharatshakti.in/how-indian-negotiators-brought-down-the-price-of-rafale-jets%E2%80%8B/
I wonder what advantages Feku Modi has found in the subsonic Scalp as compared to the supersonic BrahMos? By the time the first IAF squadron is built, the a/c and systems will be common knowledge if not obsolete. But, in any case, nothing can be done.
@Andy,
Re. “How advocating that Russia break away from India helps Indian interests is beyond comprehension”
Because that forces the people who have come to occupy the raj-gaddi to perform. Currently they are surviving on cheaper products supplied by OFB and Russia and DRDO to subsidize their Tribute paying. Once these value for money items are removed from the picture and these idiots are forced to perform they will obviously turn to the West and which is when it becomes interesting for these people.
Indians will throw these jokers out in the very next elections, even if they have no other alternative.
Enough of Fake in India and vassal like existence.
Re. “India’s inherent resilience will make sure of that.India has withstood insurgencies in Kashmir, Punjab, the Northeast and naxalites these have achieved next to nothing in terms of separation”
Indian people have been sought to be undermined since at least last 1500 years (if not more). This period is greater than the existence of a Sandhurst styled armed forces on these lands (whether Indian or foreign). You can check out the amount of course material that NDA devotes to the Indian authors, which will give you an idea of how the indoctrination starts.
Anyhow yes we won’t just survive we will thrive. Just that our future has nothing to do with the present of our Sarkaar. India has mostly survived because it never respected its Sarkaar in the last 1500 years and it still knows what the characterstics of a better sarkaar are. Modi dumping money into the electioneering is going to be so tiring for him that he will end up sell his shirt to pay off the debts.
No doubt Paks and Chinese too have expressed desire to have India Balkanized as you point out. But merely holding onto territory does not imply that we are not acutely challenged in our own lands. Word ‘Balkanized’ has its own context and there are limitations to using the adjective in talking about Indian strategic reality but then concepts too can be stretched to fit real life. I am too old to find new words, a lot tired, so I used it. But then what is the fun in having all the territory that belongs to you, well defended but then having one half of the country fight it out with the other half. People today are distracted by X% GDP growth when they in fact should have been looking at the EPS of their shareholding in the country. Indians owns nothing, even our PM is monetarily indebted to people who financed his elections. And all this was done for mere fiat money. The X% GDP growth rate benefits those who have ‘invested’ and who ‘own’ the assets. Rest all are jobbers. Whatever little we own of our country is only because of the healthy cultural habit of saving and investments. And that too is heavily under attack.
Just to give you context, the ‘Wealth’ (fiat money for which our people like Modi/Raghuram Rajan hanker) added by the West is far far more than that added by us. And this has nothing to do with Value-Added or GDP or GDP Growth. This happens because we have accepted as given the ‘free market value’ of our currency without even giving thought to how much of it all is free actually. It is when you begin to stitch together this piece of story that you realize how Diplomacy is War by other means and what lends credence to this saying. Merely focusing on territory not lost is going to yield bad conclusions. There are always different ways of killing ones prey – the choice is whether you want to get preyed upon or not.
Re:”Whatever little we own of our country is only because of the healthy cultural habit of saving and investments. And that too is heavily under attack.”
Just to give a perspective to your statement, a couple of reports on the estimated amount of gold in India,
“The Financial Express, which said that Indian households have amassed up to 20,000 tonnes for a historic high of $1.16 trillion, based on the gold price in 2012. The figure came from the World Gold Council (WGC) which estimated that India’s household gold reserves at the time were 11 percent higher than the 18,000 tonnes it had earlier pegged”
As per a report in business standard in 2016,
‘A few years earlier, the World Gold Council estimated gold holdings in India at 22,000 tonnes. Estimates of gold with Temples in the country could be 3,000-4,000 tonnes.’
Add to this 558 tons of gold with GOI as reserves,we are talking of nearly 27000 tonnes of gold in India(this after having been looted through the ages by invaders)That should be nearly $1.5 trillion in near hard cash in the country.What’s astonishing is for nearly 150 years from 1848 to 1990 India has mostly remained a dirt poor country, inspite of this we have such a huge amount of gold in country.All due to the cultural habit of saving!
@~!…
Re:”But merely holding onto territory does not imply that we are not acutely challenged in our own lands”
If we are acutely challenged then so be it!Doesn’t mean we will go around gifting territory away to Pakistan or China or even the insurgents.if they want some,it will be over a whole lot of dead bodies.I don’t expostulate fanciful theories,it only complicates matters.Keeping things straight forward has its own merit.let the enemies of India use covert,overt or even diplomatic means to undermine Indian interest ,sooner rather than later all their complicated games will come to naught.Concentràting on what India needs to do rather than unnecessarily worrying about others will be of help.Plus keeping the territories of India secure is imperative even if it’s no ‘fun’ doing so.
See, the Idea of India is more powerful than anything the enemies can throw at us,its this idea of nation and democracy that wil overcome all obstacles,including our corrupt and clueless politicians.At independence no one gave India a snowballs chance in hell of sticking together and survival(given that it was a union of more than 500 princely states)l but 60 odd years later we are proving everyone wrong.This is inspite of our external enemies and internal faultlines. Politicians, economist,diplomats etc will come and go but they will all be shrugged off and this land will once again take its rightful place in the world,this much is sure.This will happen only if our territories are held securely come what may, only then can we go after the other ills that afflict India internally or externally.
@kanishkarsh – Re. “Russians troops have landed in Pakistan for the so called military exercises. This is the Russian way of showing a middle finger to people like you.”
Ok. But what will your PM do now?
I think he will knee jerk and buy the S-400. Something India doesn’t need but is available. Or will he be man enough to chuck FGFA out? something we need but may not be available. Surely if the 2006 costing of 6 billion USD is reduced to 4.7 billion USD of 2015 then there must be a lot less of the FGFA available, already.
I think our brave PM can always rely on American investments. Americans have 87 trillion USD worth of net wealth and all he needs is may be like another 5-6 billion an years. Surely that should be doable for him and his Barrack.
@kanishkarsh – Re. “No one is an all weather friend on statecraft.”
Told ya bhaijaan 🙂 . So this Lemoa/Rafale, is about Pragmatic-National-Interest after all. But how can the nation depend on your PM if your PM is so undependable?
@andy,
Today after a few new moves by all sides, would you give thought to the logic I was proposing. India does not remain the subject of any contention any more, by cutting out the cheaper Russian support while Modi, voluntarily, alienates himself from the real Indian economy, in favour of a mirage of FDI. Modi will be forced to perform for real. Until now he has talked far far more than he has worked.
Once Bruce Riedel said no cross-border-action, Modi did comply by killing only terrorists in exchange for our soldiers. Even 30-35 year old juniors around me feel kind of cheated in a very inexpressible manner – the lives of their beloved soldiers made completely fungible and equivalent to those of expendable terrorists. How long before they get to notice that thievery in the economy too.
Now Modi is reduced to agitating the waters without giving thought to what will come after that. Its not like the Americans will junk the Pakis. Pakis are the best sell outs in the whole world and Americans have all the paper to print that wealth. So once the Indus waters are agitated will Haryana/Punjab, get that water? Or will the IWT agitation only raise hopes and then try to circumvent it by only talking about it but not actually doing it?
Judging from your comments, it looks like you are not an Indian as much you have clearly pointed by your “Your PM” reference. I wonder who your Prime minister is btw. Let me guess, “Nawaz Sharif” or better still “Li Keqiang”. Anyways, no point in discussing my country’s strategic affairs with an outsider.
Ok thinking about the Indus waters. What if both the Chinese and the Americans hype the expectations within India w.r.t. those ‘extra’ waters.
Doing that will :
1) Allow China to back Haryana, Punjab, Delhi and Jammu to see what Modi does for them. This they will use as a stick.
2) Allow the Americans to do what the Chinese would also be doing but this time the aim would be to have a ‘stick’ too. Americans already have the ‘carrot’ now to control the Indian dispensation since they control all the information flows around town (remember NSA Prism). Most likely all of Indian leadership already has dossiers in that Black building at Fort Meade, Maryland. These dossiers are funny things. Nobody ever died of a dossier, only the fear of dying from a dossier is so bloody great that Geopolitics can be made to run by it. To keep these dossiers out of the hands of Indian public while getting to enjoy life, itself is a great big juicy carrot.
The interests of foreigners nearly always coincide vis a vis India. Duvidha mein dono gaye Maya mili na Ram.
LEMOA was to be signed about 2/3 months back when some random Ameriki diplomat was visiting India. Eventually Modi got LEMOA signed like a thief in some random foreign land.
Within 20 days of this Pakis delibrately attack an underdefended, poorly guarded military camp and kill 18 Indian Army soldiers. So the test begins for the two new friends. Within about a day or two one more idiot from america says if India crosses the border then the world will condemn and so will washington. To hide this collective idiocy Main Stream Indian Media is flooded with false reports that Russia has cancelled an exercise scheduled since even before the Uri attack. Russian obviously see through these feeble attempts to intimidate them and refuse to call off the exercise. US condemn Uri attacks and Russia does same – so Indian strategic leadership gets a jhunjhuna from all sides.
In this whole game of international diplomacy and national interests, Pakis have at one stroke tested and set benchmarks for US-India as well as Druzbha (friendship in Russian) of Paki-Russia. And all sides responded as can be expected by any reasonable man. Us-State Department has simply referred all queries to their counterpart in Delhi knowing well that they can rely on the Loot-yens delhi. Notice the us-Defence Department is acting like Mook-Badhir. Us Defence department the ones who are going to help India conquer China.
Now if tomorrow there is another attack like Uri, Modi cannot even say he will take out GHQ-Rawalpindi because Americans, whom he must approach will ask him ‘why now and why was it not done during Uri attacks’. Russians too now cannot back away from their new friendship with Pakis easily, for Pakis will ask them ‘why now and why was it not done during Uri attacks’. So a two simultaneous benchmark in international diplomatic expectations is set for good. Modi may not even be there in Delhi the later PMs will face the consequences.
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Ajit Doval used to say – ‘you can do a bombay, but you may lose balochistan’.
Nirpender Mishra is the man for whom the legal procedures and statue books were re-written and can be expected to advise on Indian response to Uri attacks.
That joker in MEA is a scion of a self-anointed family of experts in strategic affairs. These guys are the ones who have sold the snake oil that India does not need to avoid US alliance and that the alliance will ‘benefit India’.
Modi use to call himself the ‘chowkidar of the nation’.
Clear setting up of high expectations for the rest of India.
All 4 of them meet, ostensibly to plan Post-Uri strategy for Pakistan. And all they can manage to do is threaten to take the waters that already belong to India. This fate, these people have chosen for themselves.
Pakis send across expendable worthless terrorists exactly because these terrorists are worthless fodder for them. It would be crazy to even count these terrorist are real men. And these 4 musketeers boast about having killed a few more of these in hot pursuit. If Pakis have dared to touch our soldiers then the least should be to target Paki general staff. Nobody is asking for a war but why must these gentlemen hide behind ‘time and place of our choosing’? What good is a reply if not delivered by Hanuman in the court of Ravan after killing his son Akshayakumar.
No sir, this is not a fait accompli, this is a choice exercised. And these choices have consequences. I would love to see these gentlemen explain their grand strategy to the families of the 18 soldiers in Uri – that FDI is important which ‘requires US alliance’ and that taking our own water is a response to losing real men in Uri attack.
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Annexure –
hindustantimes.com/india-news/resolve-differences-through-diplomacy-us-tells-india-pakistan/story-eD30zwGizzpNRlbgVN0HZO.html
“We have continued to encourage India and Pakistan to find ways to resolve their differences, not through violence, but through diplomacy,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters at his daily news conference.
…….
“I would refer you to the government of India to comment on their decision not to attend this meeting,” State Department deputy spokesperson Mark Toner said.
“What we have said it many times from the podium is that we want to see closer and normalisation of relationship between India and Pakistan,” he told reporters at his daily news conference.
“It would benefit the region. We want to see de-escalation in the political discourse between the two countries and greater communication and coordination between them,” Toner said.
Watch the news. And yes. FUCK YOU and your warped ideology/thinking
+1
Are you happy to have killed terrorists in exchange for our soldiers? What kind of exchange ratio is this?
Can you dare to ever think of Vardi wale terrorists that your american masters have fed since ages? You feel happy about it best for you.
Congrats all the same. I hope they got enough (more than enough would be better).
Good thing is a new benchmark has been set for Indians also. Now we know exactly how much of chilla-chilli will get how much of movement from our establishment. And it will always be on the terrorists not on their masters – East or West. Or at best something like Ex. Parakaram. But never their Generals and GHQ.
Pah! I feel like short changed.
Of course, your foolishness is beyond comprehension. As for my masters, they are celebrating these strikes as they are the common people of India. And please just keep sucking up to your communist masters instead of commenting on what my nation can or cannot do. Foreigners are not allowed to comment on Indian affairs.
After Uri – nothing!…Oh Really Mr Karnad???? A one minute silence for those who doubted 56InchChest…
That’s why I have repeatedly ask you not to write garbages most of the time based on your illogical and incomplete facts….Just like you have been wrong footed by Mr. Modi on Uri inspite of your repeated tirades against him and his govt on all issues from Uri to LEMOA, you will be proved wrong even in Rafale deal….
Till that time, take rest…
Don’t waste your breath and electricity on these idiots man. They will write what they are paid to by their communist masters. As for Bharat Karnad, saw him on “The Newshour”. His statements were even worse than his appearance.
@kaniskharsh, are you looking for a suitable man for a girl of marriageable age? What do you care how he looks?
But you did not answer the question a very basic one for all Indians and you have sweared allegiance to common people of India – Do you find it acceptable that revenge for good soldiers are bad terrorists.
Does any father gets happy by killing the dogs of the neighbor who beat up his son?
Part of the problem is that India has by now been trained to aim so bloody low that every ditch feels like a challenge to climb out of.
Modi has barely escaped failing the tests that every leader is put to and gods only know what good sanchit karm from what life helped him do just about this much. This is still Pitr Paksh and if he says the truth to his poorvajs then he may become even more successful. I hate him but for sake of India I hope he does become successful if and only if he cares for his primary job.
Politically he does gets respite from LEMOA and Rafale which mostly are not even a known item to the country. If that is the level of expectations and hopes then sure, let me gladden your hearts, the colleagues around also feel happy. They claim that in future the masala Modi is preparing will be even bigger.
The simple requirement is to do something that will prevent the killing of our people and failing that at least not betray the worth of their sacrifice. UPA tried to achieve that by betting on Aman Ki Asha and Track-2. Modi is attempting to do that by delegating to Americans, wholescale. Both bet on foreigners and both ignored the simple logic that the genesis of this problem lies in their respective unwillingness to develop the intrinsic strength of India.
@BK,
Brig. Arun Sehgal and Maj. Gen. Sheru Thapliyal have given some tid-bits – Naval diversion, zero collateral damage, 250 km frontline activated for 7 terror camps. Essentially a COIN operation executed in military manner.
The surgical part is truly commendable.
While this will likely become text book case study for foreigners exercising with Indian Armed Forces, I wish this is not allowed to become one. At least not with our own consent in it.
Major administrative steps in Punjab to take on any possibility of retaliation. Though I don’t expect much of a retaliation. Pakis are pre-empted by this kind of attack – either own up or stay quite. They can try more terror strikes but that is not going to cause much damage to morale.
But one thing we have to give to Modi – he is a master at mass communication. A lot of AAP supporters have been converted. As if this was the only point of estrangement between AAP supporters and Modi.
Last but not the least the soldiers are genuinely happy. I think after this the nation would be ready for more confrontation so a retaliation should best not be tried by Pakistan for its own safety.
Additional info:
1) The sell off in stocks came after mid day and was very small just about 1.5%. The Indian stocks are almost 80% held by foreigners.
2) Zee (Sanghi channel very close to present rulers) was suggesting 350 soldiers from our side making the ingress.
3) A new channel (too many these days but also Sanghi) was showing picture of 40-42 dead terrorists in just 1 camp, this morning. All neatly lined up. So a final count in my guesstimate, could be of 150-350 terrorists/helpers KIA, in all 7 camps (all counts in the range being equally likely for an outsider).
4) Dr. Reddy’s in NYSE (RDY) and ICICI Bank (IBN) (representative enough) showed no movement suggestive of any info leakage. Their first fall came exactly like our markets which itself were delayed substantially and are exactly as muted.
I was afraid that this was just another attempt to have our ammo emptied out even before the real fight begins but seems unlikely now, so long as our targets remain the so called ‘non-state-actors’. Unfortunately for us, this ‘non-state vs. state’ itself is a fake distinction and US may not hold its end of the bargain if ‘state actors’ are acted upon. I guess Indian people and authorities too would like to see a functional state in Pakistan but our definition of State may or may not be the same as that of Americans.
Another thing I was afraid of was that this should not be another noose around the neck of future Indians by freezing expectations at a certain level. That is absolutely certainly not going to happen. The raid was comprehensive and opens more questions for Pakis then it closes. Their GHQ is still up for grabs in the next round unless they listen to the Americans and play along.
The best comment was made by a bollywood actor Raza Murad – Har baar bolte they, aa bail mujhe maar, to lo ab bail aa gaya. Modi has indeed turned the tables within the limitations, he too had only inherited.
On September 9, 2016 the Chinese had again intruded into Arunachal. But no action from their side within the relevant period of action ie. night of 28th September. So they either did not know despite their own massive intel set up or were unwilling to stand besides Pakistan at this juncture. Pakis who care for their country, which does not seem very many, should listen to China too, who are going to be their next Malik.
So the Lemoa ‘friends’ have passed the ‘non-state actors’ test with flying colors. I think I should also conditionally congratulate Modi – Modi ji badhai ho.