‘Why Congress keeps winning and may do so again’ — brilliant analysis

In the 50 odd years the Congress Party has ruled India, it has been elected to power invariably by around 25 percent of the popular vote — meaning, it has never enjoyed majority support, not for itself nor for its policies. Various theories have been propounded about why this has come about. But there’s been nothing so compelling and succinct as the following analysis that’s doing the rounds on Facebook. A part of it is reproduced below. Hats off to the original analyst!

Read carefully again and again, and understand!
Reasons why Congress is winning for the past 65 years and why it will win in the future:
(A view Point)

Currently, on an average (over states) there are:
15% Muslims, 8% Christians, 7% Others and 70% Hindus.
That means: out of 100 people, there are 70 Hindus, 8 Christians, 15 Muslims and 7 others.

Voter registration is as follows:
90% of Muslims, 90% Christians and 60% Hindus and 90% Others.
This means: out of 100 people, 42 Hindus, 14 Muslims, 7 Christians and 6 ‘Others’ will register for vote.

Now, interesting point
Out of the registered voters having voter ID or at least having interest in selecting their representative.

Have a look at the number of turnouts:
50% Hindus will vote, 90% Muslims will vote, 90% Christians will vote and 90% others will vote.
This means: Ultimately 21 Hindus will vote, 13 Muslims will vote, 6 Christians and 5 ‘Others’ will vote during
election and these 45 (45%) people are responsible for selecting the representative and deciding the future
of our dear Great mother land (India!!!)

Now see Out of these 45 people of total population who votes for whom!
It is highly likely that out of 13 Muslims, 10 will vote for Congress,
Out of 6 Christians, 5 will vote for Congress and
Out of 5 others, 3 will vote for congress.
it means: Congress will get 18 non Hindu votes, BJP may get 1 Muslim or Christian and 1 others vote.
So what BJP has got? BJP has got 2 non Hindu votes!

Other parties, that are third front, may get 2 Muslim or Christian and 1 vote from others. That is, ‘Others’
may get 3 non Hindu votes.

About Bharat Karnad

Senior Fellow in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, he was Member of the (1st) National Security Advisory Board and the Nuclear Doctrine-drafting Group, and author, among other books of, 'Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy', 'India's Nuclear Policy' and most recently, 'Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)'. Educated at the University of California (undergrad and grad), he was Visiting Scholar at Princeton University, University of Pennsylvania, the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC.
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3 Responses to ‘Why Congress keeps winning and may do so again’ — brilliant analysis

  1. Shaurya says:

    Is there a link to the original analysis and sources. I have reason to believe that undue bias is playing a role in the extrapolation of the above numbers and percentages. I am sure part of the story is true, however the numbers do not seem to be so. Apart from the above communal angle, there are other factors that the INC employs to retain power, including rural vote banks and associated subsidies, splitting of votes along caste lines and lately has even figured to use urban and middle class to vote for INC, using things like the IUNCA in the last elections.

    But other parties too, use all the above similar techniques. What keeps the INC in power is the fundamental fissiparous nature of our electoral democracy and polity – leading to a question, if democracy as practiced by the Indian state is more to romanticize the people rather than empower local populations. INC retains power due to our divisions, which in turn is rooted in a lack of coherence in ideological paradigms that will unite a nation. Hindutva of the BJP is a poor replacement for this ideological coherence.

  2. Ravi says:

    How come Hindus are only 70% Sir,probably the 7% other means leftist/Secular/pseudo Intellectual perverts among Hindus who feel ashamed to acknowledge their 5000 years old Heritage ? Sir, another thing why the Religious demographic profile of each and every district of India(along with 0-6 yrs proportion) not published in the censusindia.gov.in/Registrar General of India Website. Any idea.
    Another question Sir,During Gujarat Assembly Elections every Secularist asked Why BJP didnt even give even 1 ticket to a Muslim Candidate-Good Grill BJP as much u can.
    Why wont they ask these q’s Sir
    1.Why a Hindu was never made a CM of Jammu and Kashmir(33% Hindus) whereas Assam, Rajasthan, Maharashtra Saw Muslim CMs
    2.Why a Hindu was never made CM of Mizoram,Nagaland(less than 5% Hindus), whereas AP(5% Christians) saw a Christian as CM (YSR Reddy)
    3.Why Congress never made a Hindu as a CM of Kerala after Madam Sonia Gandhi became AICC Chief
    4.Why a Hindu was never elected from Mallappuram, kishanganj, Lakshadweep, Dhubri, Murshidabad,Nagaland,etc Lok Sabha Segments(will Secular parties give Tickets to a Hindu of any Cast and help them win)
    5.Last but not the least why no Secular is interested in resettling/rehabilitating Kashmiri Pandits displaced from the Kashmir Valley
    6.Why Sir, our INDIA INC is silent on these issues,why wont they raise their voice on these issues

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