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Office Address: Centre for Policy Research, 21 Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi 110021, INDIA
dear Mr. Karnad, 31-12-2011
many thanks for expressing your views in yesterday’s new Indian express.I am sick of this adulation of sachin tendulkar.When ever the TV announces that”the billions of indians are awaiting the next great achievement of tendulkar”, I loudly add “billions..minus one”.When that man fails to get a century, we are informed that “Sachin is human after all”..who raised him to Godhead??
Many thanks for expressing MY views!
PS:perhaps, like the Dalits supporting Mayawati because she has ‘achieved’ what they could not..namely, fame and wealth,the Indian masses mired in their daily drudgery, like to live vicariously through sachin tendulkar?Honesty and decency count for very little, to the unthinking Indian.
Your articles are really eye openers to Indian Public in General who are least bothered about Security of their Country.I humbly request you shed some light regarding Bangladeshi Infiltration(which is turning out to be the single biggest Security threat to India).There are more than 50 lakh Bangladeshi Infiltrators in India according to previous MoS for Home Sri Sri Prakash Jaiswal (who is now MoS for Coal)
Thankyou Ravi. The Bangladeshi infiltration is a security worry. But it is essentially unstoppable because of the differential in the landmass and economic opportunities between India and Bangaldesh. A grow B’Deshi population and static land availability — and in the future with the rise of sea waters — and possibly actual decline in tillable land, the movement of economic refugees into the adjoining Indian Hill states and Assam will, in fact, grow not subside. There are various palliatives — like a system of documented “guest workers” who can come in seasonally for employment purposes, can earn money here, and are able to repatriate the same to their homes in B’Desh. Unless, we begin to think creatively, India will soon find itself inundated with no solution in sight except the prospect of more strife.
Foreign ministry must take precautionary measures or else we will be out of resources. Border laws must be made stiffer and breaking them must be made punishable. Besides unemployment and poverty they bring with them deadly diseases……
Not that I am racist but already we have a lot of problems and cannot afford to put our hands in snakes’ nest………
Asian Institute of gastroenterology-Hyderabad is planning to collaborate with Pakistan in Health Care sector.It also has a reputation of treating Pakistani Patients.Indian School of Business Hyderabad is planning to train at least 100-125 Executives from Pakistan.They also probably had an arrangement with Pakistani Chamber of Commerce.Our Union Commerce Minister Anand Sharma also said that he would look into the proposal of allowing FDI into Indian Market from Pakistan.Why do you think Sir our Indian Intelligentsia goes overboard in building bridges with Pakistan.They behave as peace doves when it comes to relations with Pakistan(no reciprocation from other side-not even once in the entire history).Why don’t the same institutions mentioned above show no enthusiasm in empowering and resolving the ills plaguing the rural areas,rural hinterland,and more the insurgent areas and insurgency prone areas (almost about 250 districts in our country suffer from one form of insurgency or the other). Are such gestures towards Pakistan really required considering the hostility shown by it towards India.
I hope we are not gruding the Pakistani citizens getting medical treatment or benefitting from business management courses, etc. The more such interaction the bettrr it is for prospects for peace. After all, what’s the basic problem here. The sometimes tense Hindu-Muslim relations in India, since independence, have been externalized in our attitude to Pakistan. This has hurt our strategic position because China has used Pakistani animus against us. The far bigger danger, as I have been saying for some 25 years is posed by China. China is the cat, Pakistan only the cat’s paw — why deal with the paw when you should take on the cat? Besides, it is not fair to say that it is all one way traffic. The Pakistani business community is agog with possibilities of investing in or establishing companies, retail outlets, etc — so much bigger market than their home ountry provides. India cannot afford to have Pakistan as an inveterate enemy because thn the country will be consumed, security wise, by a sideshow even as China is laughing up its sleeve.
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Dear Mr. Karnad,
In you most recent piece published in the Indian Express, you propose that india should ” transfer(ring) nuclear-warheaded cruise and ballistic missiles on the sly to Vietnam” as a way to pay back China. Have you considered what such a strategy would ultimately lead to- arming unstable regimes in this populous and ethnically diverse South East Asian region. Any nuclear conflict in this part of the world is going to consume millions of people, mostly poor, across borders and populations.
Is the number of lives under threat of a potential nuclear conflict even a consideration in your scholarly pursuits?
Actually, I have brought this up with the Chinese in Track-2 and elsewhere. When I ask them how a strategically far-sighted country such as theirs could have so deliberately nuclear missile-armed Pakistan to contain India to the subcontinent when they knew that a strong-minded and strong-willed Indian government could some day respond in kind by arming their neighbors — more of them who are afraid of China than there are states in India’s neighbourhood who fear India, they haven’t responded except by asking “But will India do it?”. The principle of Indian payback once established in practice will put the world on notice never again to trifle with India’s security interests. Besides, Vietnam is hardly an unstable country
While its true that China had a role in Pak’s nuclear program, but America had a role as well during the cold war phase. Didn’t the Reagan administration in the 80′s deliberately encourage Pak’s nuclear program in order to secure it’s loyalty against the Soviets when they were invading Afghanistan?
Now the Americans are all concerned about the nukes falling in the hands of terrorists. But its just another of their hypocrisy when it comes to nuclear proliferation.
I read the article redefining indo-pak relations in the new indian express on 14.1.2013. Best analysis has been done.The current situation inside pak and its various phases has been drawn very carefully with much proficiency.Your opinion of “unilateral action” is a prudent one and can be set in action.My humble opinion is as long as a person who seperates religion from the acts of the state makes his appearance from the dark clouds of turmoil in pakistan nothing can be acheived either by government or by fifth estate and by cricket.
That may be like “waiting for Godot”!
Sir Thank you for the great work you are doing. Would you like to write or share your articles on bhaarat.org
Please go ahead and use the stuff from my blog, without changing, modifying, revising it in any way.
Your latest article in IE of 5.4.2013 ‘Messing with Srilanka’ is, as usual, brilliant, incisive, fearless and as always the harsh truth. We wait for your column avidly. More strength at your elbow!
In an event of a nuclear war with China, both countries will be reduced . 2 billion people will be dead. But how about with Pakistan? Will we be reduced ? Approximately how many casualties are we looking at ? Do you have an article written regarding a scenario of a nuclear war on the western border ? I am nterested in reading your analysis. I suspect that they would have to have a decapitating first strike.
Bharathji, please see the link which should serve as an eye opener for our Secular/leftist perverts/peaceniks in India.shared via the tweet of Shri Prakash Singh-Ex DGP-Assam,UP,BSF:
Coversation between Son and Father in Pakistan-blow daddy blow:conversation between son and father in Pakistan,please read when ur time permits:http://t.co/lBU9C7tX8P
Yesterday evening (5th Nov 2013) I was tuned into BBC Urdu service’s program “Sairbeen” which was broadcast at 8:30 India time. One person was interviewed by the anchor regarding the successful launch of India’s March Mission. The guest was introduced as an Indian Strategic Analyst by the name Bharat Karnad. I have seen and heard you on TV. The voice of the guest on BBC Urdu program which I am referring to did not sound exactly like yours.
I just wanted to know if you were indeed interviewed by BBC Urdu service and it was indeed your interview yesterday evening in Sairbeen program.
I will appreciate your reply.
BBC Urdu Service did interview me, but I have not heard the report so cannot vouch for how my views were spliced together to produce what outcomes! Generally though, I have been a bit critical of our deep-Space probes. While there are many upsides and as part of a more comprehensive strategy would make sense, what it actually does in the context of a policy-paralyzed government is create the impression for the people of a country moving in leaps and bounds towards great power when, in reality, the country is sliding backwards in many critical respects. Even the scientists in ISRO admit that inter-planetary projects such as a Mars probe are manifestly ‘symbolic’ in nature, with relatively little substantive technological or scientific content.
Sir, just finished reading your book, “India’s Nuclear Policy” and was indeed impressed with its content, presentation, logic of arguments and the flow. I am a Ph. D student of Hyderabad Central University and am working on India’s Strategic Culture. I have a question for you, the answer of which would also help me understand your view on the subject matter. Somewhere in your book, you mention that India’s nuclear outlook is influenced, as in other countries, by considerations of national interest and hard realpolitik. This, Kenneth Waltz describes as “military logic of self help”. At another point, you mention the ancient Hindu statecraft and machtpolitik which undergirds the deeply rooted realist tradition in Indian culture. Is your point that India would have followed the self-help in an anarchic system path whether or not it has a realist strategic culture which dates back to several millennia? Or, it is because India has a hard realpolitik strategic culture to draw inferences from, that it is open to responding in a realist manner in the sphere of international relations? There could be a third point where India could be doing what it is doing, driven by the anarchic system, and using the realist strategic culture as a civilizational sanction to the actions. i just want to know from you what is the weightage you give to india’s strategic culture in the shaping of india’s military strategy as a whole and its nuclear policy in particular.
Thanks. Would wait for your response.
Perhaps, the two streams merge in the manner to produce the outcome you suggest. Except, “self-help” is a situation-driven option and a Hindu machtpolitik-laced realist Indian strategic culture is a contextual factor that naturally directs countries to consider the forthright option, which may often be deemed “hard”.
I read your articles on Indian security policy very keenly. I have a question for you regarding India’s nuclear deterrent. You and santhanam as well have said that the thermonuclear tests in 1998 were failures and India only has 15-20 KT fission bombs. Kakodkar is on record saying we have 200 KT bombs. Moreover seismic data does point to Indian tests being around 60 KT if you factor sikka’s theory of wave interference on which there is copious material. Reading on thermo nukes, I found that basically there are 2 thermonuke designs-Sloika or layer cake pioneered by Russians and tellar Ullam by Americans. Only tellar Ullam can be scaled up to multimega tons due to higher tritium burn but sloika gives 200 KT – Kakodkar’s magic number 20 KT from fission , 20 KT from further boost if tritium is used in fission core, 40 KT from LId fusion burn if lid is spiked with tritium and 150 KT from fissile tamper. This was basically done by Russians inRDS6s test in 1952 and moreover this design is simple and compact. if you keep an inert tamper and don’t use tritium for purpose of underground testing your yield will be 40 KT-20 from fission and 20 from fusion. This is what iyengar implied with 10% burn. So could it be possible that’s Indians tested 2 hydrogen bombs in 1998-Sloika and tellar ulam. While sloika sizzled and gave 40 KT , tellar ulam failed and gave only 15 KT from fission primary. Which means that our warheads are 40 -200 KT in Agnis and prithvis, not as destructive as P5 but quite good still especially if agnis are MRV capable (not MIRV) and from cost perpective sloika is much cheaper to maintain than 4th gen tellar ulam design which require expensive LIF facility.Indeed israelis follow the same approach. So you and santhanam would be wrong then.
Yes, this is the sort of conjecture that many in AEC circles have made and there’s no evidence to suggest it isn’t so. But even going by the assumption of the Ulam-Teller weapon config and its proven failure in 1998 — if it failed shouldn’t India, at the very least, test to obtain a successful fusion burn in the UT design to extend the country’s weapons design and standards options and to keep the P-5 and adversary states guessing?
Yes but maintaining a 4 th gen UT arsenal would require billions investment in LIF due to which Britain and France are already reducing their arsenal. In contrast a 250 kg MRV sloika warhead can give 80 – 100 KT if tritium is used both in fission core andLID ring compared to 200 KT for TU design. The casualties would be roughly similar. With India’s proven capability to simulate sloika , copious tritium reserves, wouldn’t it make sense to sign nuclear deal , preserve domestic plutonium reserves and have good relations with US. Any TU test now would mean that Pakistan will have a TU design from china which they can deploy so India will be threatened by multimega ton weapons of PAK. Moreover whole Islamic world will acquire the Hbomb then which will end the security of Israel and primacy of America which is only against our interests.So n tests now would be a strategic disaster. it would be akin to loosing a queen to the adversary (china) and hitting a pawn.Today even if pakis have TU design which is a big if since China itself acquired a 4th gen TU design through theft in 1988, without explosive testing they cannot deployit. they can only deploy tacts and simple fission weapons whereas India can employ 200 KT bomb. By the way it goes to show the level of secrecy in side Indian establishment. It seems the DRDo guys did not even know the true shaft depths and were led on a garden path by BARC.
Does this also mean that we got help from Russians in our nuclear programme as Russia is the only country to have tested a sloika.
Dont you think Shri Narendra Modiji should contest elections either from Jammu and Kashmir or Assam and win so as to send a strong signal to the forces that are inimical to India and also to instill a sense of pride, self confidence among the local populace of those states
Well, while politically ambitious, it could be risky considering the local populations in these outlier states may be less receptive to Modi and his ideas than people in the heartland — UP or Bihar.
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