[Modi & a triumphal Trump?]
Who writes and uploads Prime Minister’s Twitter-X messages? Because it is certainly not Narendra Modi, whose English language competence is confident but basic. His often used alliterations and other literary flourishes are, like for any good orator, what he practices before delivery from material handed him by somebody, his speechwriters(?). Why is this relevant? Because his purported reaction to Trump’s announcement of the India-US trade deal on his social media handle, Truth Social, was so cringeworthy, so needlessly servile and obsequious, it has done real damage.
It stamped India as an American camp follower, with its reputation in the world already plunging when, given its repeated evocations about the UN and the liberal world order, Delhi said nothing about Trump violating UN provisions and the international law, kidnapping President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas, and all but taking over Venezuela — even billing himself “President” of that country.
But first, consider (the screen shots of) Trump’s message on Truth Social and Modi’s response.
Trump:
Modi:
The effect of US President’s message:
- For Trump, calling someone my “greatest friend” means zilch. He will throw Modi and India under the bus the instant Xi agrees to a trade deal and a mutually beneficial arrangement is agreed on regarding the US accessing Chinese rare earths and China US chips/microconductors. Wait and see! He is not in the least interested in India other than as a country with a leadership that can be easily coerced into doing anything he wants Delhi to do and views it as a useful pawn to have in hand in the big power game afoot with Russia and China.
- Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian oil [which] will END THE WAR in Ukraine”. Re: The first part, India is already complying with Trump’s demand to shut down the energy traffic with Russia. As to the second part, the ridiculous cause and effect connection between Indian Russian oil purchases and ending of the Ukraine war is derived entirely from Trump’s finding a scapegoat for a war he said he’d end in a trice only to find that he had no inkling about how or why it was happening and, of course could not terminate as he had proclaimed. His cabinet puppets — treasury secretary Scott Bessent, commerce secretary Edward Lutnick, his White House trade adviser Peter Navarro than parrotted his scapegoatism.
- According to Trump, the trade deal was the result of his acceding to the Indian PM’s personal “request” to an agreement that will see America reducing its 50% tariffs on Indian exports to 18% even as the Modi regime “will move forward to reduce their tariff and non-tarifff barriers against the United States to ZERO”. So the understanding here is 18% American tariffs in return for 0, as in zero, Indian tariffs!
- “And the Prime Minister committed to buying”, Trump says, much beyond the $500 billion in energy, technology, coal, Agricultural and other products”. The other products here refer apparently to military hardware of all kinds.
- Trump refers to this completely unbalanced India-US relationship as “amazing” — I suppose that is TRUE, because no other friendly state has agreed to such a trade deal!!
- And, then came the expected self-congratulation. He attributed success in the deal to the “two people” — himself and Modi who, he claimed, “GET THINGS DONE, something that cannot be said for most.” This is certainly true. US policies are whatever gets into Trump’s head at the moment. But in terms of implementation, the American judiciary is playing spoiler in many social areas he’s mucking around in. But this is definitely the case with Modi. One wishes though that the Indian PM, who packs so much political power and support, had pushed foreign and military policies based on the “INDIA FIRST” principle he talked about during his first election campaign in 2014, but it did not inform his subsequent stance.
Ramifications of Modi’s message:
- If Modi thinks Trump is his “dear friend” then he suffers from (hopefully, short term) amnesia. Because just 7 months ago, Op Sindoor is when Trump showed how dismissive he was of Modi, and what he thought of India by reasserting the traditional American policy tilt to Pakistan of propping up the latest tinpot Field Marshal ruling the roost there. And by resuming military aid — the initial tranche to refurbish and upgrade the Pakistan Air Force’s F-16 fleet, possibly to the Super Viper F-21 (or Block 70 F-16) level that was offered India as MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) option. It is a uniquely IAF “need” the Indian government has filled by the fast obsolescing 4.5 generation Rafale platform (that was shot down on the first day of Sindoor May 7, 2025) that the IAF craved, costing Rs 75,000 crores that France, with the Indian government’s acquiescence, is withholding source codes for!
- The PM expressed delight for the reduction of tariffs on Indian goods and commodities to 18%, but what was he “delighted” about considering India is required to zero-out, by Trump’s reckoning, all tariffs on American products. Including “Agricultural” that the Indian Commerce Ministry has been trumpeting it mightily resisted?
- Two “large economies” and “largest democracies” and such, is a load of rhetorical poppycock. If US companies actually move a whole lot of their manufacturing from China to India then (i) what cards will remain for Trump to negotiate a trade bargain with China that he desperately desires? (ii) won’t it run counter, moreover, to his own policy of arm twisting US industry to home-base all manufacturing? and (iii) with Zero tariffs on US exports, what will be the incentive and motivation for US industry to move its production base to India, rather than just selling their products whole with unhindered access to the vast Indian market???
- One thing that nobody expected was the depths to which Modi abased himself before the US leader with this line — “President Trump’s leadership is vital to global, peace, stability and prosperity”. It is almost as if Modi was admitting he fouled up by derailing Trump’s spurious Nobel Peace Prize campaign by not joining Asim Munir in broadcasting, post-Sindoor, that minus the great peacemaker, India and Pakistan would have ended up bashing each other silly! And Modi was compensating with the utterly nonsensical afterthought to end his message — “India supports [Trump’s] efforts for peace”. This when, just in the last few weeks, Venezuelan sovereignty was violated, Greenland barely avoided an US military invasion and a US versus NATO fight in Nuuk, Iran is confronting a US naval-air armada off its shores, and Mexico is facing unilateral US military intervention ostensibly to wipe out the Sinoa-based and other drug cartels pushing cocaine into America.
- May be like Denmark, which was the first NATO state to send its military detachments to fight alongside US troops in Afghanistan, and now finds itself targeted by Trump over Greenland, Modi may next consider, who knows, deploying the Indian military on a “peace” mission to help out the US — anything to curry favour with the White House! We will manage whatever occurs afterward. World peace uber alles! Thankyou, Trumpji!
Security Wise 
Modi is being worse than Manmohan Singh in terms of coddling up to the United States. What a shame!
Lol 😂🤣
Comparing modi to maunmohan !!
Your answer clearly shows zero grasp of economics and administrative affairs.
Just put up any stupid comment, I am sure that is enough to make your day ? Right ?
Email from Smita Purushottam, IFS (Retd) former ambassador to Switzerland
Tue, Feb 3 at 1:43 PM
The trade deal came after a frightening concession in the budget, Big Tech whispered in Trump’s ear: “we got what we wanted”, tax holiday for data centres to indiscriminately gather Indian data and use water and energy resources for creating value overseas, the implications of which are damaging to national security and welfare. They dont need the US FTA asking for non discriminatory treatment for US digital behemoths, now there is discrimination in favor of the US!
Smita
The part about “gathering Indian data for foreign use” sounds concerning hope this is not what the end result is. The 20 year tax holiday is for global income of overseas cloud companies creating data centers in India. By creating physical data infrastructure in India the MNCs feared being treated as local entities which could then be taxed for their global income earned from these data centers. So if Amazon creates a cloud data center in India it only pays for the resources for running the data center. The cost it charges its foreign users of its cloud services is not taxed in India. Any services it sells to Indian users is taxed in India. This appears no different from tax holiday for EEZs. Not quite sure that it is a big issue. Ref
https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/budget-2026-govt-clarifies-data-centre-tax-holiday-sets-conditions-for-foreign-cloud-firms-514565-2026-02-04
What is more concerning is as you say the manner in which GOI has been arm twisted by Trump? China has clearly shown it can stand up to the USA. India has psychologically folded. The concession given for the DDG(Dried distillery grains) i.e. American corn for ethanol production to be used in blended petrol, the pet project of Mr Gadkari, whose own family is involved in this blending business is what is cringe worthy. The whole ethanol blending in petrol business for environmental reason is a big scam on the people of India. Food grains like broken rice are being diverted to this distilleries as there isn’t enough sugar cane supply already and now India will import American grain, when earlier, the promise was, that Indian farmers will benefit from the alcohol blending and foreign exchange will be saved.
Further tax benefit is being given to foreign liquor in all these trade agreements with western countries. GOI wants to promote more drinking culture in its youth. Subsidized agriculture produce import door has now been opened. Jowar to be imported for animal feed( will surely end up for human consumption too) , Soyabean oil, fruits and dry fruits. As if Indian farmers only produce food grains and rest of the sectors don’t require self sufficiency.
$500 billon to be spent by India in next 5 years to import American energy and aircraft. All of this was negotiated and agreed to by Indian government with a gun to its head without even once raising reciprocal tariff on any imports from USA.
Hope the truth about what leverage the USA in particular has on elements of the Modi government and why, clearly comes out some day.
Apology for the uninformed rant on DDGs. Should have researched better. DDGs are byproducts of distillers, used for animal feed, not an input. The import of GM corn for Indian ethanol producers has not been announced. Never the less GM import for animal feed has now opened the door for GM crops in India.
Trump uses DoubleSpeak, one has to read between the lines to understand what he is saying
Dear Sir,
No official confirmation is given from India side as of now about 0 % tariffs & whether diary / agriculture is included for tariff free access.
Don’t you think it’s a little premature to draw strong inferences only from what the other side claims?
The deal has come up promptly after the EU India deal, this suggests US may have been hastening for a deal to go through after the EU deal & so may have come down on their demands on some aspects.
No doubt the US trade deal was hastened by the EU FTA. But GOI is stuck, as is its US counterpart, with whatever Trump says.
seems RSS is sleeping and modi and his team is going to sell India to USA
Wow this dumb government chose america over russia by agreeing to halt crude purchases from Russia and purchase Venezuelan oil from US and then expect russian support on pakistan and china front. De Dollarization is a dream now. Just waiting for modi to admit that Trump ended the war and himself prostate infront of trump and provide him Nobel Peace Prize when he visits India. TRUMP IS RUNNING INDIA WITHOUT INVASION. Amrit kal what a joke when you yourself are Colonial Slave to America. What a clown and wimpy Government and Country.
@BharatKarnad
Sir, you are absolutely correct. As you rightly point out, in international politics optics are substance, and the Prime Minister’s public messaging has done “real damage” by stamping India as an American camp follower. Your observation that Trump’s notion of “greatest friend” means “zilch” is borne out repeatedly by his transactional record, and your warning that India could be “thrown under the bus the instant Xi agrees to a trade deal” is both realistic and sobering.
but i would like to divert you attention to a equally important incident
I would like to talk about the Recent Caravan magazine published General Naravane’s Essay
https://archive.is/20260202071854/https://caravanmagazine.in/security/navarane-memoir-ladakh-crisis
it has paywell but here is the removed version. All can read
and this is the former COAS saying here . Would really appreciate if you could pen down a separate post on this issue. The Galwan mess and who is to blame the military(Naravne , Corp commander Joshi) or the politicians
Thank You!
One wonders after repeated indignities (not appearing to receive at the door of White House), slights and outright insults (India is a dead economy, etc.), what goods or leverage Trump has over the PM to make him yield on key matters like Russian oil, ingress into agriculture sector, etc etc? Perhaps, Subbu Swamy is right after all.
https://www.opindia.com/2026/02/hal-out-of-amca-program-private-player-to-build-5th-generation-stealth-fighters-for-the-first-time-read-which-companies-are-shortlisted-as-the-psu-denies-knowledge/
Namaste Professor @Bharat Karnad,
I recently came across reports suggesting that HAL may not be part of the AMCA programme and that private sector players are being considered instead. If these reports are accurate, it does appear that the government has taken note of several concerns you have consistently and forcefully highlighted over the years.
You were particularly critical when the LCA Tejas contract was awarded solely to HAL, citing issues of efficiency, accountability, and timelines. In contrast, if the AMCA programme is now being opened to capable private players, it does seem that the government has corrected its earlier approach.
In that light, I believe this is also a moment where the government deserves due appreciation for being receptive and willing to course-correct in a strategically important programme. Developments like these give reason to be more optimistic about the future direction of India’s defence and aerospace ecosystem.
I thought you might find this development noteworthy and a fitting occasion to appreciate the Modi government for correcting course on such a critical programme.
Naah, he will never do that !!!
the facts are that everything would be a trillion times worse if rahul gandhi would have been in power…….. Things have only started changing right now and it will take lot of time for india to develop the kind of strategic thinking and the spine that bharat karnad wishes…
Mr. Karnad conveniently forgets the fact that we were first colonized by the brits which ended in 1945 and thereafter by the Nehruvian-Gandhian Congress.
Had MK Gandhi lived, there may have been 2-3 more Pakistans? Bangladesh was always east Pakistan and is to be used for islamization of India in the future. The geography and border of Bangladesh should have been made in a way to maximize Indian interests in 1971… But it wasn’t. Why ???
Once you start reading in depth about the Congress you will know who and what they truly are !!!
I am no supporter of BJP or Modi .They are not true nationalists. I want a true kattar Hindu nationalist to be in power. But that will have to wait!!!
@Batra- If Congress is so evil and BJP is so good then why did Modi/Shah put all Congressis in jail and ban the party.
Patel banned RSS twice during his tenure as the Indian home minister citing the organization as a terror outfit.
Old corrupt congressis like Narayan Rane, Scindia etc have all joined BJP to save their corrupt loot.
Amit Shah has made his son the chairman of ICC. Look at the profile of Doval’s and Jaishankar’s kids.
If Congress was corrupted so is BJP.
‘Kattar Hindu nationalists’ can go elsewhere. Stop defiling a respected forum on security affairs. There are many other spaces online for your ilk.
Looks like the author has failed to grasp the nuances of diplomacy and the compulsions of current geopolitics. Seems to be looking at surface statements under a very narrow prism.
Pray explain the nuances of a slightly bent Modi on his way to hug his counterpart whether they like it or not!
Who is the GoI to give access to data involving its citizens to a third country? Did they ask us, the citizens who are going to lose privacy?
Do you have an idea of how much energy and water a data centre will consume? And do you know who is to pick up a partial tab for the same?
After every deal this PM makes, there is a lack of information, silence, downright lies and no clarity. I have a very good idea who are the anti nationals in this country. It is not the Opposition for sure.
I am shocked to hear the Speaker of the Lok Sabha telling the PM not to attend the house as he has ” reliable information” that the opposition is planning to ask him questions! OM Birla what do you think the Parliament is for? And why is the PM afraid of answering questions? That is his job!
When will this BJP Govt develop a backbone? Why do we have a stupid grin on our faces when we get abused by US officials? Why are we still trying to humour them? A decaying empire will not go down quietly. It will try to drag others down with it. So staying away from it with usual diplomatic courtesies is enough. What tech has DARPA given to India in the last 35 years?
The US with or without Trump will not help India the way they did to China. That happened under very peculiar circumstances when neo liberalism had quietly entered the halls of power via the beltway. As luck would have it, the US emerged out of the cold war as the sole super power, outsourcing manufacturing to China grew leaps and bounds and US companies were bothered with only quarterly nos.
China kept its head down, humoured the US and the West and learnt everything there was to learn about manufacturing, many of the methods being their own innovation. They stole trade secrets they needed, they dumped goods into other markets even as the hegemon was busy fighting useless wars in the world.
Now the hegemon doesn’t even know how to enrich Uranium on its own despite having 72 nuclear submarines in its fleet with advanced technology, that they only need to be refuelled once in 25 years! After the 3 mile Island incident , nuclear became a dirty word in 1977, no reactors were built and most of its nuclear scientists gone.
The Sangh Parivar is no different from the Evangelical christians of the USA who will vote in Trump , no matter what he does. That the man is a Malignant Narcissist with an advanced stage of Fronto Temporal Dementia which has led him to lose all inhibitions makes no difference to them. Similarly our PM need not fear his core voter base as they only vote for him, no matter what!
Monkeys come and go in Delhi, but the Nation remains a Banana Republic.
Articles on Military Strategisation and Future Orientation of International Politics from your Side are much more interesting, Professor
But sieving mud is not gonna get you Gold. Indian Politicians were and will always be a disappointment.
KM compulsions of geopolitics demand we distance ourselves from the US as far as possible and being aware of surroundings and working with like minded nations for our growth while avoiding conflict. Our primary focus has tobe growing the economy. We are approaching the era of AI where labour intensive manufacturing using an unskilled labour force, is no longer a big advantage.
(Im)Patiently waiting for the book dear sir. Any timeline please? Meanwhile, your blogs keeping many engaged.
Also, recently got fascinated by the Kargil conflict, watched many interviews/podcasts. Could you recommend any book?
Read the Kargil Report
Read that too sir, but pardon my limited intellect, I still couldn’t come to terms with appointing an IAS, howsoever distinguished, to be the Chairman of a War review committee. Was there no unbiased and no non-sense retired service chief/Intel chief available with us who could do justice to this role?
To be fair to the late K. Subrahmanyam, he did a good job by way of a post mortem of the Kargil conflict.
Was going through the French nuclear policy , Concept of pre-strategic strikes, (warning shots ) sure sounds tempting enough. Professor,If you can shed light on it , that why it will be good or bad for us ?
In my last 2018 book Staggering Forward, I detailed a forward deployed nuclear 2-tiered tripwire for the LAC with China. The 1st tier constituted by atomic demolition munitions for placement in likely mountain passes of PLA ingress and a 2nd tier with canisterised, ready to fire, Agni MRBMs for launch-on-launch and launch-on-warning capability to deter PLA’s use of its conventional superiority. And that this conforms to India’s usual passive-defensive-reactive strategy because Indian ADMs and Agnis will be activated only after PLA violates the LAC. This is an augmented posture as I had suggested the placement of ADMs in my 2002 Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security
The French pre-strategic use policy is nonsensical — more posturing than credible posture.
Some Points and questions Regarding your strategy ?
I have gone thorugh your 2 tiered tripwire strategy but professor, Nuclear weapons and thier “radiation” makes them weapon of last resort; with narrative around them always of civiliastional damage .
Major rivers like the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra originate in these mountains; radioactive fallout in these glaciers could poison the water supply for hundreds of millions downstream
By hitting the precise “nerve center” of a mountain pass or a bridge, a 1,000kg conventional bomb can trigger a massive landslide that achieves the same denial of terrain as a nuke, without making the area a radioactive wasteland for the next 50 years.Why to even go nuclear for that ?
While a conventional bomb can’t “blow away” a mountain the way an ADM can, it is much better at “surgical demolition”,breaking the roads and tunnels the enemy needs while keeping the mountain (and the water supply) intact.
Keeping in perview that Himalyas are young fold mountains with multiple fault lines like; Lipulekh Pass the pass sits at the tri-junction of India, China, and Nepal. It is surrounded by extremely steep, unstable shale rock. A conventional deep-penetration bomb here wouldn’t just block the road; it could cause a permanent “mountain collapse” due to the fragile geology.
and biggest point ;
In both India and China, the military is strictly an executor,Pre-delegating launch authority to tactical levels (necessary for ADMs) or tightening the launch window for Agnis introduces significant ‘use-it-or-lose-it’ pressures and in frameworks outside of NCA. What is stopping a LNW to turn to MAD?
Will discuss French policy some other day.
Good option. But as I argued in my books, forward deployed deterrent as tripwire has the great benefit that, should the situation require it to be set off, there’ll be no venting of radioactivity — the most problematic aspect of nuclear weapon use. Why? Because th collapsing mountains — earth is the best absorber of the deadly Gamma Rays!!! That’s why, I contended, it is an operationalisable and, importantly, CREDIBLE nuclear posture!
“Professor, while the physics of gamma absorption by rock is well-documented, the ‘operational credibility’ of ADMs faces a different hurdle: Geological Uncertainty vs. Environmental Contamination.
Shivam@, aditya mishra@ — Yes, the soft tectonic structure of the geological plates of the Himalayas, is a problem for all the reasons you have adumbrated, and thank you for pointing it out. And yes, there will be a venting even with the earth damper. But two conditions would minimise the -ve effects. Firstly, the 0.5-1 KT size of the ADMs, while sufficient, if properly placed, to bring down the mountainsides on the invading PLA Group Armies, would limit the vented radioactive plumes, as also the damage to the plates, ground water, etc; and, secondly the placement of ADMs will be behind the LAC and the Indian Army’s frontline, so these will not be “tactical” except in terms of a PLA surge.
What I was most concerned about in the strategic sense for me to propose the shortfuse LAC tripwire (in 2018) was this: To analogize from current developments, Xizang (South Tibet) that China claims, constitutes the Tawang Division of Arunachal Pradesh stretching to the north bank of the Brahmaputra, and is as Crimea was to Ukraine — vulnerable and annexable. This Russia proved in 2014 when it simply marched in and absorbed the peninsula. And, recall, the PLA had captured Tawang in 1962. Of course, it will not be as easy for the PLA to repeat that adventure. But that’s the pol-military geography India has to contend with. The forward deployed nuclear ADMs+Agni-1 posture is to ameliorate that source of potential trouble because, given India’s manifest conventional military inferiority versus China, the country has no other option.
@BharatKarnad
Thank you professor for sharing your strategy
but this is one of the areas of policy recommendation where i don’t agree with you and i have my points please bear with me.
First Earth absorbing gamma rays does not mean “no venting of radioactivity.” Underground nuclear detonations do not neutralize fission products. They generate:
1)neutron activation of surrounding rock
2)radioactive gases (xenon, krypton) that do vent through fractures, and long-term contamination via melt glass and groundwater seepage.
The Himalayas are young, fractured, water-saturated fold mountains, not Nevada test sites. Assuming perfect containment in faulted, glaciated terrain is operational optimism bordering on irresponsibility.
Second, the claim that ADMs are “credible” because they avoid civilian harm collapses under basic hydrology. Glacial meltwater and underground aquifers don’t respect containment assumptions. Even low-level contamination in Indus–Ganga–Brahmaputra headwaters is strategically and morally catastrophic.Fine lets forget morality but still will affect us. Deterrence that risks poisoning half a continent is not credibility it’s self-deterrence failure.
Third, the argument still dodges the core issue: escalation control. A nuclear detonation however “contained” is still nuclear use. China’s response calculus will not hinge on gamma absorption coefficients. It will hinge on precedent. Once the nuclear threshold is crossed, India forfeits its strongest strategic asset:, political, and doctrinal restraint.
Finally, calling this posture “passive-defensive-reactive” doesn’t make it so.
Would love to know your views
@BharatKarnad
Professor, thank you for engaging so openly and for clarifying the logic behind the ADM + Agni posture. I fully agree on the gravity of the Tawang/Xizang problem and the asymmetry India faces vis-à-vis China.
Where I ultimately differ is on the judgment of necessity. Even at sub-kiloton yields and rearward placement, ADMs introduce irreversible environmental effects and, more importantly, collapse escalation control by normalizing nuclear first use at an early stage of conflict. Once that threshold is crossed, yield size and emplacement depth become secondary to precedent and perception.
I remain unconvinced that India has exhausted non-nuclear denial options in the eastern Himalayas. Imperfect conventional solutions that preserve political maneuver space, in my view, remain preferable to nuclear tripwires that trade deterrence gains for long-term self-deterrence and strategic inflexibility.
That said, I appreciate the rigor of your framework and the opportunity to test my assumptions against it. This is one area where I respectfully disagree, but the exchange itself has been extremely valuable. Thank you for the discussion.
So we agree to differ on ecological damage.
@BharatKarnad
Absolutely, Professor we agree on the ecological concerns. Beyond that, my focus remains on the strategic and operational implications. Even low-yield, rearward-placed ADMs shift escalation dynamics by normalizing nuclear use at an early stage.
That said, I fully appreciate the strategic logic behind your framework, particularly given India’s conventional asymmetry and the vulnerabilities of the Tawang/Xizang corridor.You ain’t wrong too
The revelations coming out in dribs and drabs from Gen. Naravane’s unpublished book make for concerning, if not scary, reading. Firstly, despite the intent and will within the military to pay the Chinese back in their same coin, they are hamstrung and restrained by the netas coming down heavily on them. Secondly, the Chinese have known very well by now (very much like the Americans, as stated in this article) that the Indians are weak-willed and they can therefore get away with salami-slicing on the border territories and shifting the buffer-zones as much as they want. All this makes me misty-eyed and nostalgic of Rajiv Gandhi, who was the PM when I left India, and Gen Sundarji who gave a bruising to the Chinese in the 1987 skirmish and scared the bejesus out of the Pakistanis from Operation Brasstacks, to the extent that Zia had to make a hurried, unscheduled visit to Delhi to plead with Rajiv Gandhi. Those were the days!
btw naravane’s book got leaked
a senior member from congress party leaked its pdf
Surely, with the consent and complicity of Naravane and Penguin. Understandably, both of the latter feel frustrated and stymied from the book’s clearance being held up by the govt/m.o.d.
@BharatKarnad
Professor as you see the New START treaty between russia and usa has expired. But with China expanding its arsenal at triple-digit rates, maintaining opacity over its force posture, and blurring the credibility of its no-first-use pledge, hasn’t that reference point already collapsed?
In this context, does India’s continued adherence to credible minimum deterrence and an unconditional NFU still serve deterrenceor does it instead constrain India while its adversaries pursue both quantitative expansion and qualitative diversification, including tactical nuclear weapons and theatre-level nuclear options?
More pointedly, should India now be considering deliberate force expansion, a re-examination of NFU, and a clearer thermonuclear-centric deterrent posture rather than allowing its deterrence to be diluted by Pakistan’s tactical nuclear doctrine and China’s growing warhead inventory? If deterrence stability now depends less on numbers and more on escalation dominance, is India not risking strategic irrelevance by clinging to Cold War-era restraint in a post-arms-control world?
Would like to know a detailed answer for this question
Have long pleaded for an Indian strategic force in the vicinity of the Chinese Rocket Forces numbers. By 2030 the latter is expected to grow to 1,000 weapons, so that should, ideally, be the target size and growing combined with my solution of onpassing N-warheaded missiles and Brahmos to states on China’s periphery.
Maybe a whole post on this from you, sir?
A Greater Balochistan will alter the geopolitics of the region, straddling not only the entire Gulf region but also providing a base to access Central Asia and keep a watch over troublesome areas in Iran, Afghanistan and a rump Pakistan. In fact, the geographical relevance that Pakistan keeps talking about comes from its control over Balochistan. The Pakistanis are losing sleep at the thought of powerful regional and global players waking up to the importance of Balochistan. Operation Herof 2 and the larger Baloch uprising are, therefore, no longer being seen as a local separatist movement but as part of a larger global conspiracy to cut not just Iran but also Pakistan to size.
The failure of the Pakistani state to properly integrate Balochistan respecting the separate identity, local customs and culture has led to where it has become the plaything of big powers. Farsighted strategic minded Indians should see the danger of a separate Balochistan as a precursor of great powers thereafter assisting in the fragmentation of surrounding countries — Iran, Pakistan, and even India — the prized territory. Trump has already moved to help the oil-rich province of Alberta to secede from Canada — you get the idea! That is why I have been arguing since the late 1970s actually that India needs to coopt Pakistan on a respectful and mutually beneficial basis — because it is eminently cooptable, and is the way to regain for the subcontinent the strategic unitariness ruptured in 1947, and to preserve the security of South Asia.
There were and still are similar hegemonic designs on Kashmir as it is ideally situated to keep tabs on both India and China. Fully agree with the latter points. If only the “bhakts” will realize that the future of Pakistan lies with India, as part of a giant federation; this too has been prophesied to happen by certain seers. Interestingly, if one follows the internal Pakistani discourse, there is overt admiration for India’s growing clout and unfettered discussion if partition wasn’t the Quaid’s biggest blunder.
An eminently logical solution only if emotional humans on both sides would not be there 🙂 Logical but not feasible! So, the question for you Bharat ji is, what is feasible by the humans involved on both sides?
@BharatKarnad
Greetings Professor.I hope this message finds you well
I was reading some of your past essays on nuclear doctrines and issues
I had a few questions that I hope you might kindly clarify or expand upon.Particularly on Massive retaliation and concept of proportanality.Let me begin
India’s declaratory commitment to massive retaliation irrespective of the scale of first use is central to your critique of Pakistan’s doctrine. Yet, in the case of limited or tactical nuclear use, does an insistence on massive retaliation risk eroding credibility if adversaries assess that political leadership may hesitate to authorize city-destroying strikes in response to battlefield nuclear use?
Do You convincingly think escalation control is illusory once nuclear weapons are introduced. However, does the outright rejection of proportional nuclear response inadvertently strengthen an adversary’s belief that limited nuclear use might still remain below India’s true response threshold?
Massive retaliation appears oriented as much toward punishment as toward deterrence. In contemporary deterrence theory, where perception often outweighs capability, can deterrence remain robust if retaliation is seen as normatively or politically untenable even when militarily feasible?
Well if we go massive city destroying strikes in response to a battlefield strike how do you see the political constraints imposed by mass civilian casualties, international pressure, and crisis instability on decision-making at the highest level following limited nuclear use?
Finally, do you believe that a rigid commitment to massive retaliation reduces the incentive for nuclear adventurism, or could it paradoxically encourage adversaries to test the threshold through calibrated or ambiguous nuclear employment?
If you could spare a little time, I would be extremely grateful for a detailed responses to theses queries, as I have been searching for insights on these issues without much success.And in india we don’t have nuclear experts.
Thank you very much for your consideration sir.
Sorry, but detailed exposition on the points of interest is for me time wasting and unnecessary as I have analysed them in depth in my books. So ad seriatim 1) flexible response can be ratcheted up, where do you go if the declaratory doctrine says massive retaliation? 2) Strategic parity is pyschologically stabilising. 3) No, there cannot be a “robust deterrence” w/o certainty of credible punishing response. 4) Proportionate response is/will be more acceptable because perceived as reasonable. 5) Yes, it may push the better placed adversaries (China in the main) to test the use threshold.
Professor,
Want to bring to your attention this CNN article on US accusing China of conducting nuclear device test in 2020. Of course IMS denies any test but what I found interesting is this article mentioning how China with only 45 tests lacks data to develop next generation nuclear weapons. Dr Chidambaram’s claim of India having sufficient data comes to mind. Of course he did add a qualifier “for now”.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/21/politics/china-nuclear-arsenal-new-technology
“China’s nuclear weaponeers may lack confidence in the limited nuclear weapons data they collected during only 45 tests, most of which were conducted in the atmosphere and poorly instrumented,” according to Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
As expected and everyone knew the US-SC struck down Trump tariffs. Anyone with a little common sense would have waited 2 weeks for the judgment to come. Modi government has made India very week by making it a US client state. Unfortunately India has a very incompetent political opposition else this would never have happened. Now India is stuck with the deal it made with US, with a gun pointed to it’s head. India gave up its sovereign economic and security decision making ability. By compromising so poorly with US It also lost the leadership of the global south it was seeking. India does not yet deserve the UN SC seat.