[Modi and Trump in Feb 2025]
People ask if I feel vindicated with Trump and the US turning on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and India, and heaping insult on humiliation with a 50% tariff that’s the highest imposed on any country. There’s something to be said after all about the satisfaction with saying “I told you so!” But I have been saying so for decades, and satisfaction wears off quickly to be replaced by frustration at the amateurs in Delhi trying to play in the realpolitik major league and being nowhere up to scratch.
The desperate diplomatic lunges by NSA Ajit Doval towards Moscow is to be followed soon by the country’s leading pusher of good relations with America at any cost — even India’s sovereignty — S Jaishankar, our esteemed external affairs minister (EAM).
(Incidentally, IFS officers in MEA, I am told, are surprised and appalled by the extent to which Jaishankar is pushing the “give in to Trump”, “buy peace with Trump” lines, and by how much he is willing to compromise the national interest.)
Meanwhile, Xi Jinping sits pretty in Zhongnanhai watching, as is every Asian government and regime, India getting kicked around by Trump with a mewling response from New Delhi. This even as China is the biggest importer/buyer of Russian oil and gas via direct pipelines to the energy sources in Siberia and suffers no proportionate tariffs because, well, Beijing can deny exports to the US of rare earths magnets critical to many US weapons systems. So we have, as someone noted, the deliciously surreal scenario of a country withholding supply of something to another country needing it to fight the supplier state! But Xi is a cool hand at this game. And must be licking his chops awaiting Modi’s state visit — the first in 7 years when he too can turn the tourniquet, seek a modus vivendi on the LAC on Chinese terms, which, in any case, the PLA has snatched on the ground.
Or, for that matter, what do you think Putin’s treatment of Jaishankar would be when he visits Moscow to once again seek support now that Trumpian America has kicked India to the curb? And why he’d be met with a mix of barely concealed contempt, condescension and not a little schadenfreude, even as Putin too would happily turn the screw, but more silkily. Russian oil might become dearer for a start!
Modi’s response to Trump’s relentless attacks is to say he is prepared to “pay a heavy price. [And] India is prepared to pay a heavy price.” Brave words and fine, but a predictable and nearly useless response other than as a warning to the Indian people to tighten their collective belt for the leaner times ahead. Because, all it will do is to motivate Trump and to an equal degree Xi, and even Putin/Peskov/Lavrov in Moscow to see just how far the US can push India around, or to put it differently, what Modi’s breaking point is, if there’s a breaking point.
But the question is how did Modi get India into this position? Obviously because, advised and prodded by Jaishankar, he gave every indication that he’d walk the extra mile in placating and pacifying Trump, and preparing to move all the country’s eggs into America’s basket, leaving the country overly vulnerable. Except Trump understands how he’s relatively placed with the other leaders. With Putin and Xi, he knows he can’t do other than play it straight. Modi, he realises is a clinger, with a policy of clinging to any passing coattail, and can be dealt with abruptly and with a dismissive attitude.
Modi is not a Luiz Lula da Silva of Brazil nor a Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, a Berkeley PhD in energy management and hence clearly an intellectual overmatch for Trump. Lula shot down Trump with his gringo-jibe, and Sheinbaum has been, as the online political magazine, Politico, described her, “icy cool”, refusing to rise to his bait, but taking actions beneficial to both countries. Like hammering the drug cartels. Trump therefore finds nobody to bully except Modi. And because he finds Modi cowed, the Indian PM can expect yet more bullying, and still more after that next bout, until Modi stands up and and says no more!
But, where and who can Modi turn to now — Kremlin? Dusting off India’s attribute as a geostrategic leverage against both the US and China is the best bet. But, perhaps, on stiffer terms. And Modi will take himself to Beijing and deal with Xi from a much weaker position. He may not get kicked in the face as he bends his knee, as he was by Trump, but he won’t come away with consideration either.
Things however have got to such a pass, it has now become personal. Here Modi is up a creek. He has always acted the inferior with Trump — and that’s the way the latter likes it. The US President has seen all Europe and the Asian Far East Asian allies accept his economic diktats. And everybody’s on board to humour his conceit as a peacemaker and win the Nobel Peace Prize to match the one awarded to President Barack Obama in 2009 for doing nothing more strenuous by way of peacemaking than delivering a speech in Prague. Quite literally! So why not double down — and this is a piece of advice to the Nobel Peace Prize Committee — on the joke they authored: Hand the damn thing to Trump keen on besting Obama at every thing, and let’s be done with it!
Azerbaijan and Armenia appreciate the joke only too well as their leaders have accepted Trump’s invitation to sign a peace accord in the White House to buttress its present occupant’s supposed peacemaking reputation! The chances are that Trump does not know where either of these countries is, or what peace it is which he has allegedly mediated and over what (Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian Christian enclave that’s been virtually ethnically cleansed of Armenians in the wake of the war between them in 2020). But these are details, and unimportant! It is the peacemaker role he was robbed off by the Indian government refuting his involvement in Op Sindoor which, in Trump’s imagination, he had ratcheted all the way up to a near nuclear exchange!! One can see how compelling that narrative might have been to the Nobel Committee in Stockholm had it an iota of truth in it, which the Indian government, spoiling it for Trump, said there wasn’t. General Asim Munir, quick to spot an opportunity to massage Trump’s ego, had Islamabad write an official note thanking the US President for his fictional “peace-making” intervention, and won Trump’s confidence. As easy as that! And then followed Trump’s venomous actions against India, ensuring some four decades of painstaking diplomacy, of building up India-US relations, of getting India over the hump of its deep down and well merited distrust of America, went up in smoke.
The upside is Modi may be cured of his unrequited love for Trump and America and, if the PM has any sense, he may care to put Jaishankar out to pasture as well, in the main because he is associated principally with fleshing out the US tilt in Indian policy that has proven to be such a monstrous disaster. Because, as long as he is still pulling the strings in the MEA, there will be no movement toward equilibrating the Indian foreign policy between Asia-minus China, Russia, EU and the US with BRICS, the security-related BRIS (BRICS minus China) to militarily balance China without America that I proposed (in my 2018 book — Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition), and with the same objective in mind, a Modified Quadrilateral (India, Japan and Australia) with the US in this group replaced by a bunch of Southeast Asian nations — so that a loose overarching security architecture does not have to depend on an unreliable and untrustworthy America. (An analog of this seems to be what President Emanuel Macron of France has in mind for an exclusively European defence system.)
Alternative security arrangements, more organic to Asia, need to be conceived and considered by the Indian government and the military, because to continue to bank on any external power for strategic security against China is to set India up for more surprise and humiliation in the future of the kind it is suffering at Trump’s and America’s hands.
Ultimately, it is a matter of national self-respect and goes beyond Modi or any other Indian leader of the day. Modi may be willing to stomach Trump’s obloquy; but the nation cannot bear to be so deliberately dishonoured.
Security Wise 
Time for Jaishankar to be sacked ? Does Modi have any viable option for a new MFA and more importantly does he have the guts to sack Jai ?
It appears Modi ji is already committed to bending a knee to Trump. The NRI honchos are urging him to meet with Trump. Retired US ambassadors are meeting him to persuade him to do what he is already quite inclined to do. There has been no rollback on the tariff concessions India gave to US this year(google tax, Harley, Whisky etc), nor are any tariff/non tariff retaliation on the horizon. Based on news reports so far, defense purchases to continue, oil import from Russia has reduced, Indian ambassador to US has met with Sen Graham and proposed greater energy imports from US(Jaishankar had already hinted on reaching out to him when he was in US last), Modi ji is sticking his nose in Russia-Ukraine affairs(perhaps at US bidding) and the latest news suggest that Modi is travelling to USA to attend the UNGA and more importantly to meet Trump.
So here it is. Meek surrender. Agriculture is a red herring. Trump already has the deal he wants, he is only putting India in its place.
the problem for modi in jaishankar case is that American paid media already made jaishankar’s image as pro nationalist(spread all over youtube). It will be difficult to get him removed without strong reason.
By buying Russian oil, the only entities that have profited are oil marketing companies, the federal government through excise collections and the state governments through VAT, and NOT the end consumer.
If agriculture has some red-lines, surely alternative sources of oil supply could have been explored.
good morning sir…
with due respect to u sir , i find in ur article with no strategy at all. and ur overestimating the strength,..1st u make clear wat’s ur policy on china , how u want to settle the border with china ? actually do u want india to settle the border with china or not?//.1st u make that aspect very clear before crafting any strategy form which u want to exclude china …..2) who is our long term threat ? china or usa? make it very clear ..dont beat around the bush …as ur articles say , on one hand usa is not friendly , on the other hand u say china is threat and pakistan is fuming and usa is encouraing pakistan ..so do u want a threat from 3 countries in the long term?..i think 1st lesson in diplomacy is economy of enemies and dont push ur enemies closer together…but ur articles really sorry devoid of strategy n long term strategic thinking ..i find only meaningless accusations n comments with no strategy visible
Read my books going back some 30 years on the China threat and what to do about it it. This is a blog, not a treatise!
>BRICS security without China
>QUAD without USA
Sir is this Geo political analysis or Childish fan fiction??
frank@ — you should read more than blogs; my 2018 book ‘Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition’ (Penguin-Viking), for instance, explaining these very practicable geostrategic concepts, and why these are even more urgent in the Trumpian era.
@santoshkumar358:
Your criticism does not make any sense at all – it is just blatant assertion without substantiation. As for “how u want to settle the border with china “, nobody knows the answer since you have not defined what you mean by “settle”! The point is there is no prescription in international affairs for any strategic analyst to follow. But Modi as the PM will have to deal with China as the northern neighbour like it or not. And you need to be reminded of the recent China-Vietnam war when PLA attacked to teach Vietnam a lesson and in return was taught a lesson as per General Sunderji’s that war analysis. Your calculation of military strength makes no sense in warfare.
sankar@ — read it carefully wat i have written …dont make irrelevant comments on wat i have not talked about
@BharatKarnad
Speaking at an event in Bangalore, Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal AP Singh confirms India shot down 5 fighter aircraft of Pakistan Air Force using s400 and 1 AEW&CS aircraft during Operation Sindoor. This is the first ever confirmation from the highest rank of IAF regarding the number of losses suffered by Pakistan.
Now they are telling that we too hit PAF but why accept it now when it is so late when the enemy has won the narrative war that he claims he shot down 6 jets including 3 rafales
here is the link
https://x.com/ndtv/status/1954078291901513994?t=9nKClvh2SguPhsHWqASz1g&s=19
Do you agree with Mr singh here
would love to see your analysis on this
Long time coming!
Not sure I entirely agree with your premise that the US tilt is to blame for the shambles. It afforded India to grow its economy. However, as with all things – the leaders, babus or anyone in the hot seat for that matter did not play 3-Dimensional chess in terms of thinking how to gain leverage either by moving towards self-sufficiency or increasing leverage (like Israel has)..
Either way, what are the options to deal with this:
one thing is clear: two decades of bonhomie gave India the opportunities and a window that could’ve been utilised to build a very strong bulwark of a nation, not one that quivers when America sees red.
The CAS’ remarks have no value, now.
Agree that the 20-year window could have been better utilised. But not if the aim from the start was to climb onto the American lap.
On trade deal. It is only India which painstakingly worked on an FTA with USA which is already on Trump’s table. No other country has any written deal let alone a full blown FTA. India already conceded on zero tariff on capital goods import and open market for agriculture in certain areas like meat, fruits and even milk products like cheese(what happened to blood meal?) and defence purchases. We got a bad deal because we started off with appeasement. India removed Google tax, alcohol duties, Harleys, Tesla and Starlink even before Modi went to US and even before trade deal. So all this was a tribute that India paid to Trump. Trump’s trade minister had already conceded that India will not open agriculture and has bluntly said in mafia like tone that India buying russian weapons gets under the skin of USA. So agriculture is a red herring that leaders on both sides are waving at gullible citizens.
Having got the deal he wanted, Trump decided to push India more and hence raised issue of Russian oil to settle non trade related issues like Ukraine deal and who knows what else behind the scenes. Trump team is gloating that no country except China has retaliated.
Trump team is not expecting any retaliation from India. May be because it understands that decision makers’ will to respond is already compromised and as you explain it is a result of not building guard rails over the years in US relationship. China is indeed gloating and its media is egging on India to stand up to USA. A hard break in US India relations is to its advantage. One is skeptical if there will be any real response or weather India has any cards left. WTO afterall is dead now, Lula wanting collective action by WTO does not work. The only thing India should definitely do now is not sign any FTA with USA and work on diversifying trade with other countries. Hopefully India will also stop further defense purchases from USA. After all no one else has signed any FTA with USA since trump tariffs. A US China grand bargain looks inevitable now. All cards are now with China.
With the IAF chief revealing battle kills of PAF aircrafts only now (terrible narrative handling strategy) gives me the impression that it must have been Jaishankar responsible for keeping this information under the wraps so as to not upset Trump and the Yanks further.
This is just terrible narrative, more the reason for Jaishankar to be sacked ! He’s past his ‘laser eyes’ era’;)
Strength respects strength. Maybe India’s conduct of Op. Sindoor did not impress Trump along with almost the entire state edifice vested in placating and sucking up to America. This also is a clear power play by Trump to get India to choose a side and stop waffling as a pretense to independent power status.
I am not questioning our aspirations or inherent capabilities but the question is tactically where does India go from here? The strategic sides is a long term thing, that India has to work on, if ever there is leadership who knows how to.
I wish Modi had used this crisis to retest our thermonuclear weapons, as nuclear deterrence becomes even more critical when we are dealing with China and using our market access as a bargaining lever with the U.S. I hope this crisis drives home the point that India is on its own, and that we must learn to think for ourselves rather than outsourcing our thinking to U.S. think tanks and truly become atmanirbhar in our actions so that we can maintain our dignity and self respect.
I wish we could overcome this creeping policy mindset we have regarding the U.S. Jeffrey Sachs has already counselled our policymakers about the same.
@BharatKarnad
Sir may I suggest you write down a new blog on IAF chief statement of shooting down pakistani planes
it’s implications whether it can be trusted or not and why give these statements now after 3 months not before
your analysis on this will be very helpful
Listen Folks,
India’s football team is the most horrible in the world and India has never qualified for Football World Cup.
Trumpji wants India to play good football and qualify for Football World Cup in future. In order to do so Indian gov has to do big bang economic reforms which will for sure erode the caste system. So Trumpji is just forcing India to do those economic reforms!!!
Dear Sir,
Asim Munir is giving nuclear threat to India from American soil.It could not have happened without approval of US administration. I think it is high time India should consider US as nuclear adversary and build a nuclear deterrent against US. Agni6 with 12k plus range or Surya ICBM(speculation only) should be tested ASAP.
What is your take on this ?
@BharatKarnad
Professor recently as you know asim munir is in the United States and he issued his nuclear threat to take down half of the world if pakistan goes down
but another interesting part of his speech that was reported was this he said i am quoting him
“India is shining a Mercedes coming on a highway like Ferrari, but we are a dump truck full of gravel. If the truck hits the car, who is going to be the loser?” Munir reportedly said at a Pakistani community event in Florida.
now i have listened to almost all of your podcasts and interviews on youtube and after reading this statement your opinion on this came into my mind
you advocated that india must go first use in any case against China beacuse they have much more to loose then us we have no guarantee of success on beating them in the conventional field . And you said that they won’t risk the eastern seaboard
Well doesn’t the same logic apply to india we are more wealthier we will loose more if pakistan strikes first they know it . Despite the exchange ratio disadvantage they know if they are going down they are going to take a large part of india with them
what stopping the Pakistanis to not go first use against india then beacuse they know once the indians bring in their agni and k missiles its gave over for Rawalpindi. So why not launch a massive attack on india at the first instance like you advocate india should do against China
and this thing is complete opposite to what you say repeatedly that pakistan will never go nuclear against india be it tactical or strategic.
Would like to know your opinion?
This might be the right time to resume Thermonuclear testing, wouldn’t you say ? Relations with US(Trump white House) have gone far south. Plus we have Paki COAS threatening to nuke ‘half the world’ from US soil.
This is should give India perfect excuse to resume testing. Anyone in the administration thinking in this line or am I being jingoistic ?!
India does not need excuses for resuming tests, just a leader with a strong will.
@ Bharat
Sir, do you think Trump might re-ignite trade war with China after Ukraine war is settled. But this time trump may use mighty US Navy to block Malacca straights so as to neutralize chinese rare-earths card.
If yes, then what will be its implications for India ?
If China folds in such a scenario then is India prepared for repercussions !!!
Trump is a coward, and will do nothing of the kind.
@BharatKarnad
Sir how can i get access to your strategic sellout book
I see in almost every blog you curse this civil nuclear cooperation deal
I want to know about the complete story
https://books.google.co.in/books/about/Strategic_Sellout.html?id=4U2r77PtR-IC&redir_esc=y
In this link there are a few pages shown
you are the author the owner of the book can you talk to pentagon press about it
Jai Shanker may have tendered wrong advice but then where was Mr. Modi’s thinking power? After all the buck stops at the Prime Minister, unfortunately, he loves yes man and seems like he thinks he has expertise in economics, military and foreign relations, his personal diplomacy is a disaster, he claims to have a degree in Political Science but did not know what Lord Palmerston, a British Prime Minister said 200 years back ” “Therefore I say that it is a narrow policy to suppose that this country or that is to be marked out as the eternal ally or the perpetual enemy of England. We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” Henry Kissinger simplified this by saying “America has no permanent friends, America has no permanent enemies, America has permanent interests”.
Modi’s thinking is hugging and laughing loud would enchant foreign leaders and win them over. He does not know anything about diplomacy, has totally failed. And Jai Shankar whose father K. Subramanyam, a master scholar and strategist in the field of nuclear weapons and international relations must be spinning in his grave looking at his son.
HI Dr. Karnad, what you wrote is music to China’s ears! good going!
Dr Karnad, Congratulations for penning another relevant article from your mighty pen. However I disagree with the BRIS ie BRICS minus the Chinese concept of yours. I believe Brazil South Africa or Russia for that matter will prefer China any given day over India. So your proposal of Brazil South Africa and Russia will agree with India to dump China is a non starter. What do you think?
BRIS is conceived as a loose. Informal, military cooperation arrangement to ward off China and would gain traction
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad recently after a very long time a 5000km NOTAM has been issued by the government for testing a long range missile in the indian Ocean
let’s hope it is a long range agni or k missile at this point it is very important to send a message to china , Pakistan and most importantly USA.
@BharatKarnad
Professor karnad recently scott bessent (US Treasury secretary) a man of consequences unlike trump has threatened that if the Ukraine negotiations (which is being held at alaska) between USA and Russia fails then india will be punished for it .
basically more tarrifs on india and india might me the most tarrifed country in the world
Do you take this threat seriously and what can we do
your views on this ?
Yes, believe Bessent!
@BharatKarnad
I may sound a little bit impatient but sir any updates on your new title
can we get it by December of this year
The manuscript will get to the publishers by then for sure
Sir after reading all your books it appears that nothing much can be done and India will never be great power.Its impossible to dislodge the powerful civil services lobby and unfortunately they are of low calibre and subpar intellect so any rational arguments will never make sense to them .Neither do we have any visionary politicians like Nehru in our entire political spectrum.Our nuclear program and its research is in doldrums as govt and babus are not interested so there is no incentive for nuclear scientist to stay put in India.I see no hope, it is as if we hit a dead end. What’s in it for you to write all these books as your writings are not able to influence the powers that be as they are more interested in being client state of America
Keithjake@ There’s hope. One can be pessimistic about our leaders, bureaucracy, et al, but not about our nation.
@BharatKarnad
Recently PM on independence day speech said that India is set to develop a new missile defense initiative, dubbed the ‘Sudarshan Chakra’, aimed at integrating advanced surveillance, cyber protection, and physical missile defense mechanisms and vectors to safeguard its citizens and critical infrastructure and assets(may be airbases and nuclear command control). Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined the plans in his Independence Day address on Friday.
looks like this concept is inspired from the american golden dome which trump had just annnounced last month that it will protect the american mainland from nuclear missiles and vectors . But the entire project is quite expensive
now nomenclature hindu mythology reference is fine but will such a project actually help in national security of india
would like to know your opinion i see i haven’t seen your views on missile defense systems neither in your books or blogs
No air defence system can defeat missile salvo firings.
India’s foreign policy has been like a circus for 11 years, and reduced the country to America’s favourite whipping boy! I never thought I would live to see this day. Hope those responsible get their comeuppance one day.😡
@Bharat
Sir, does the recent Boeing plane crash investigation report in Ahmedabad give India some leverage against USA in this trade war ?
Will Modi have the gumption to speak about China’s involvement in recent Pahalgam fiasco during his coming China visit ?
Buying or stalling Boeing aircraft deals is a sovereign decision.
Dear Sir, Biden was a backstabber but Trump is a front stabber. We can safely conclude now both democrats and republicans are anti India. India should kick US out from all important technological dependence. RIC military alliance plus BRICS economics alliance is needed to counter US dominance. We may have lot of problems with Chinese but without China we cannot counter US in near future. If China continues to arm Pakistan then India should Continue arming south east asian countries to keep check on China. BRIS military alliance doesn’t look promising. Brazil and South Africa put together can no way replace China.
India China alliance is fully unnatural alliance but need of the time as US is behaving like Rog bully state doing regime changes at will, initiating wars,issuing nuclear threats through proxies like Pakistan,economic bulling and many other problems they are creating on daily basis. China appears to be lesser enemy than US for now.
We can continue preparing for future war with China parallelly with continue developing superior weapons and always keep eye on Chinese activities near LAC.
What is your take on this?
‘Without china..cannot counter’ America — arguable
India is not tech sovereign country. We still depend on West, Russia and China for many technologies. We cannot counter US alone in near future.Even technologically advanced China also cannot counter US alone. 2 natural enemies tactically joining hands to defeat 3rd enemy looks inevitable if there is any serious thought to end US global dominance.
The problem: the two “natural enemies” trust each other less than they do the US!
@Bharat
Sir, if India really gets close to China then will USA again throw India out of MTCR, Wassenaar Group, Australia Group ?
In order to create a solid real long lasting understanding with China, I think India will have to accept hegemony of China and recognize aksai chin as Chinese territory. I don’t think China will give up its claim on Arunachal Pradesh in order to woo India out of USA scheme of things . India is just too weak w.r.t China.
Sir, Will China give up its claim on Arunachal Pradesh or India will have to cede Arunachal also to China ?
No, because unlike India, China appreciates values territory on land, sea, and air.
@bharatkarnad Already voices in India including surprisingly G Parthasarthy among others have started undermining the Johnson Line (Kunlun) and some have started pushing Karakoram as the true watershed border. This reflects a considerable change in India’s thinking from the time when then HM G B Pant had vociferously defended India’s claim based on Johnson line to Zhou Enlai. Do you believe India has a strong case based on Johnson line?
Not if GOI reps don’t push it.
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad just today in the evening SFC tested a agni 5 ICBM
I had commented on this article only 5 days ago that a long range misisle can be tested
though the PIB tweet mentioned it as an IRBM
but the missile range only covers china not even one western nation like uk , Canada or USA
May I suggest you write a blog on this new missile test
Agni-5 prime is as I have been saying only an IRBM; an ICBM is minimum 12,000 kms range
@BharatKarnad
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agni-V
The missile has been renamed now
I remember that earlier when I saw this page it was written ICBM now it has been changed to IRBM.
what does this mean in your assessment?
does this mean that a A6 test is not very far
No. It means that with the rupture in relations with the US, now is the time to unveil A6 and testfire several.
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad sir do you think that there is any possibility that by 2050 GoI or any future government and PM will actually test a true long range ICBM land based missile vectors that can reach continental United States.
just today on 20 august the strategic forces command tested a agni5 missile of <4900km range and that too in 2025.
till when we are going to shy away from testing true long range missiles. In your 2002 book too I have read it you repeatedly say that india should have nuclear forces capable of reaching to United States to prevent coercion in any form.
if you could write a new blog on this it would be really helpful on this missile test and why it is not enough
regards
@BharatKarnad
Sir I have noticed this through your writings and books that you have kind of shown support towards russian defense equipment. Though your endgoal is complete self reliance on defense equipment
But be it s400 and s500 development, tu 160 , su30mki production and in past too tu 22 bombers.
Whereas you have always shown strict opposition to patriot and f15,16,35 and other legacy and a few new but lame american weapon systems .
maybe if you could tell why it that? And Always a pleasure reading your books and blogs
Why? Look what’s happening now!
Dear Sir,
What is the significance of Aug 20th Agni 5 test? I think it is the message to US for giving nuclear threat from US soil using the proxy Munir. I dont think it is anything to do with giving message to China as so many past tests have happened on Agni 5 is enough for China. Is the range hidden through lofted trajectory launch. I think there should be some message to US. IRBM test cannot give any message to US.
What is your take on this?
Hi Prof, Just read the news that SAFRAN is the AMCA will be powered by SAFRAN engine. Its a shame. Why is India not able to create its own Turbofan? The Tejas mk2 also will be powered by GE 414 while the Tejas mk1 is already using GE F404.
The director, GTRE, Dr Ramana Murthy explains that we are only lacking in some critical technologies like Single Crystal Blades that help reduce weight of engine, but otherwise the Kaveri test bed was functional proof of technology albeit providing lesser thrust than required due to the engine being heavy. Why are we allowing SAFRAN to have control over our engine? Can’t India overcome these few tech challenges through paid consultancy, hiring more talent, using AI/simulation?
We can and should have. But Paris has got a hold on IAF and MOD/GOI
no doubt first those 36 rafales(now 35) , then 26 marine rafales then scorpene class subs and maybe even more in future
have we asked anything usefull in return there is a laser megajoule ICF in Bordeaux. Have we asked its unrestricted access for correcting our s1 failed dud device
What’s your view on the megajoule ?
@BharatKarnad
Sir are thermonuclear weaopns necessary for detterence in context of india
They say You don’t need thermonuclear devices for deterrence. That depends on survivability and reliability more than size of bang, . And on precision, variable yield etc. These factors mostly depends on launcher rather than warhead.
It’ actually more devastating to have a cluster of warheads with precision guidance (MIRV) than one big one.
The biggest fission weapon so far is 500 kT and supposedly (one remark) the most common boosted fission/fusion weapons are order of 100 Kt
One advantage of a boosted fusion is that you can dial a yield more easily.
That big warhead is generally also wastes proportionately more %age of bang into the atmosphere, and is heavier. Used to compensate for lack of precision or for trying to get through hardened bunkers (again penetration helps here more than bang)
No enemy is going to be deterred by hypothetically saying – a fission weapon will only kill 9 million of my city, let’s launch nuclear attack, but a fusion weapon will kill 10 million, let’s not. [And even those numbers are not correct or in that size/sequence] .
They say anyway considering the population density of china or let’s say shanghai and hong kong even a 25kiloton weapon will take out 1million people.
would like to know your opinion?
i know it is frustrating for you to repeat this but you are the only realist and most knowledgable and trustable person in india regarding nuclear matters.
Have tackled the large yield ThN weapon and Rafale issues in my writings. Cannot keep repeating them. Look up my past posts.
@bharatkarnad A bit off topic but related to US gaining leverage on India making it vulnerable to sanctions. Dr Anil Kakodkar has recently been interviewed by The Print on the patented ANEEL thorium fuel developed by US company “Clean Core Thorium Energy Inc” in which Dr Kakodkar is an advisor along with former NSA M K Naraynan. It has been specifically designed for use in PHWR and CANDU reactors. The description of their profile on the company website is interesting. Mr Naraynan’s contribution to the Indo US nuclear deal has been mentioned and the fuel has been specifically named ANEEL recognizing the contribution of Dr Anil Kakodkar in its development. Incidentally this L&T has an MOU with this company for the development of this fuel for “developing countries”.
Clearly the primary customer in mind for the use of this fuel is India and I see ominous signs here of India’s three stage nuclear program and its energy security being made dependent on the US. The revolving door involving primary actors behind the Indo US nuclear deal also raises red flags. I wonder why the Dr Kakodkar did not deem it fit to use his expertise to advise BARC where he was the Chairman to develop such a fuel in India rather than promote a US patented fuel for our program.
The Strategic Sellout which you, PK Iyengar and K Santhanam had warned off seems to be paying dividends to a few. What should be GOI’s policy on this in your view? Given that PM Modi had specifically mentioned plans for reforms in nuclear energy sector in the country during his recent independence day speech.
What can the people do when the govt sells out the country?
@Bharat
India should voluntarily withdraw from the QUAD before getting dragged into a conflict it cannot handle. The Chinese Air Force operates over 3,000 state-of-the-art fighter jets, while India has barely 300 to 400 modern aircraft, with the rest being outdated. China also possesses one of the world’s most advanced missile and rocket artillery systems, both in quantity and precision, capable of striking Indian airbases, infrastructure, and even major cities like Delhi and Mumbai.
If the US imposes a naval blockade at the Malacca Strait, India could face unimaginable catastrophe. China could retaliate with massive missile strikes and overwhelming air power across the Himalayas, potentially triggering a two-front war if Pakistan joins in.
India’s real strength lies in its geography, not open warfare. The wiser approach is to remain neutral and, at most, provide refueling and logistics support to US warships during a conflict.
The present ruling dispensation (RSS/BJP) has no clear plan or will to industrialize the country. Its focus remains on creating a utopian Hindu Rashtra, leaving India militarily weak for decades to come and even possibly forever. The Modi government must frame foreign and defense policies based on India’s current capabilities, which are limited, rather than on utopia and communal or inferiority complex based hallucinations.
Sir, do you think India should voluntarily withdraw itself from QUAD ?
@Gab Singh- QUAD is just a fictional concept. Australia and Japan haven’t fought any wars since the end of WW-2 in 1945.
India isn’t capable of any meaningful military campaign. Example’s-it’s unresolved border disputes with Pakistan as well as China and Indian establishment’s ongoing sweeping of it under the carpet.
U.S and China will never engage in an actual war.
@BharatKarnad
The pakistani nuclear secretariat SPD has it’s own dedicated security wing called Strategic planes divison force which comprises of armed personnels and commandos who are trained to protect pakistani missile launchers , warheads and materials from threats
since 2012 SPD force has been training these recruits in its own academy known as Pakistan’s Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Security (PCENS) located in Chakri near Rawalpindi. This training facility is modeled on The american nuclear security administration and federal protective forces academy.
i mean no doubt they are much better then us in doing reforms specially in military matters. They straightway adopted the american standards of nuclear security
now i searched about this but could not find any answer on the web maybe if you could tell as you might have some info on this . Does india also have such a formidable unit to protect our nuclear assets. On wikki i could find that some lame and weak CISF guards protect our nuclear reactors and labs.
would like to know your view on this?
My regards
A dedicated unit, no (as far as I know)
@BharatKarnad
professor karnad sir may i suggest you pen down a new blog on modi’s trip to china and meeting with jingping and how will it effect india-us relations.
your views on this geopolitical development will be very helpfull