[Modi’s February 2025 visit with Trump]
The perils and pitfalls of getting close to America and Trump were obviously not studied in any seriousness by the Indian government before Narasimha Rao began the movement in the early 1990s towards a US-tilted foreign policy — the dangers of which I have been warning incessantly about in my books and other writings. This skewed policy took wing with Manmohan Singh’s regime when his chief negotiator S Jaishankar, then MEA joint secretary (americas), fetched for the country the most disastrous one-sided nuclear cooperation deal (2008) imaginable that killed off India’s chances of ever emerging as a muscular thermonuclear weapon state. That policy flowered even more with Modi starting in 2014 with S Jaishankar again, this time as minister Sancho Panza, that has resulted in a policy of multi-billion dollar arms buys to gain American friendship that resulted in all sorts of vintage weapons and platforms (M-777 howitzers, C-17s, C-130s) in Indian inventory at huge cost, and has landed the country in such a sorry pass that these days Trump seeks by choice to beat up on Modi and India in lieu of anyone else to bully and badger!
Readers of this blog may have noticed the recent flurry of articles and op/eds by the country’s media commentariat (featuring retired foreign secretaries, diplomats, and such) suddenly discovering how perfidious America can be — something that I have been sounding the tocsin about over a very, very long time. The media has been party to popularising the view that Donald Trump in his second term would come through for his “friend” Narendra Modi and help India reach the “viksit Bharat” goal which, incidentally, is still the delusion driving the country’s foreign policy. After being slapped silly and mercilessly taunted by Trump, it is still not certain Modi will take umbrage. Or, to put it another way, how much more outrageously and offensively would Trump have to behave for Modi to respond? Because it is not just Modi who is being denigrated but also India, or is the Prime Minister unaware of this?
The confusion and perplexity at this adverse turn of events is mirrored in the actions of Modi, Jaishankar, and the MEA-NSC lot that had laid such great store by Piyush Goel and his commerce ministry babus reaching a “mutually beneficial” Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with America, little anticipating that the Indian government was rushing headlong into a tariff ambush Trump was laying for them. That Trump’s intention from the start has always been more than tariffs was plain enough — it is to make America’s European and Asian treaty allies and strategic partners, especially India, also its economic vassals. Economic vassalage, Trump and his advisers have determined, would be easiest to impose on Modi’s India considering how the Indian PM and his foreign minister, Jaishankar, have sought to ingratiate themselves, in big ways and small, to Washington and the West generally since 2014.
The immediate impact of 25% US tariff on Indian exports is bad enough, exceeding the 15% rate arbitrarily imposed on Japan, and 19% on Philippines and Indonesia in Asia. It is the Indian contracts for Russian oil and military equipment that are going to draw the biggest penalties and these imposts will amount to tens of billions of dollars. The grander aim appears to be, proverbially, to kill two birds with a single stone, i.e., to collapse the BRICS combine in which India, China and Russia are prominent members. BRICS, potentially an economic giant, is seen as the greatest danger to the US retaining its economic status as the ‘numero uno’ power. His fear is that BRICS is large enough, has the most dynamic economies of the world, to do serious damage to America’s standing if it also leads the charge in de-dollarising international trade. India’s rupee-rouble energy and defence transactions, and China’s preference for trading with Southeast Asian nations in its own currency — yuan, is for the US a red flag.
But to undermine BRICS, the US first seeks to reduce the strong alpha male-strong man leadership of the leading countries in this grouping — Putin, Xi, Modi, Luiz Lula da Silva, and Cyril Ramaphosa in the eyes of their domestic audiences. Putin is nearly immune to Washington pressure. Xi holds the promise of a state visit to Beijing that Trump wants as leverage for the US to not behave outrageously towards China. In fact, such is Xi’s command over Trump, and Washington is so eager to please Beijing, the Taiwan President Lai Ching-te was refused a transit through the US to visit the only three Latin American states that recognise Taiwan — Paraguay, Guatemala, and Belize. And this mind, is the America the Modi regime had all along hoped would act in terms of India as bulwark against China! Ramaphosa was insulted in the White House with Trump creating a controversy out of thin air by talking of “white genocide” of South African farmers. The South African, in turn, mocked Trump’s understanding of anything, leave alone anything related to Africa, and South Africa in particular. The recently elected President Lula in Brazil, however, took the fight to America. Calling Trump’s tariff threat “blackmail”, Lula, doubling on the provocation, declared that “the gringo will not order this president around.” Suitably elated with their man showing brass, Brazilians have responded by increasing their popular support for their presidente.
Contrasting Lula’s or even Ramaphosa’s strong reaction to a deliberately insulting Trump to Modi’s, who caved in instantly to Trump’s “request” (by the US president’s own account) and ended the Sindoor hostilities, is to realise just how little America really thinks of Modi and India, and contrarily how much Lula’s telling Trump where to get off has raised Brazil’s profile in the world at a time when European states and Japan are falling over themselves to prostrate before the US President. In fact, if as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister and arguably the leader with the keenest personal insight into Trump, said that the EU’s conceding a 15% tariff rate was the consequence of Trump having the European Commission chairperson, Ursula von der Leyen , who negotiated this deal, “for breakfast”, then by his reckoning, the Trump Administration surely made a lunch out of the Indian minister Goel and his commerce ministry bumblers, and more centrally of the Modi government. But is there even a squeak out of New Delhi other than Rajnath Singh’s unconvincing rebuttal on Sindoor in Parliament to Trump’s unending insults?
What is unfolding is a tragedy for India masquerading as power play. The next time Trump talks of his “friend” Modi, New Delhi should be prepared for another American strike! The fact is the US President and his advisers have concluded that Modi is an easy mark and India a pliant enough state for Trump to crown his tariff war with success by arm-twisting India into America’s economic fold. Because manipulating Ramaphosa, Lula, Xi and Putin is deemed a more onerous task.
I mean, would Modi even remotely consider setting Trump and the US right by, say, freezing all defence acquisitions from America, informing Boeing about a stop to offtaking its passenger aircraft by any Indian airline, creating difficulties in the case-by-case consideration of any American request with regard to the four foundational accords? And, mull not offering Washington leverage by ending all talk in official channels of H1B visas for Indian techies (who will take care of themselves)?
Security Wise 
What I see Professor, that Trump used Modi for kind of an ethical clearance. He was facing impeachment, and nobody sane was actually supporting him. India, no matter where is is economically, still has a moral high-ground of being the land of Buddha, Mahavira and Gandhi etc. Working with people from many countries, I’ve seen so much respect for those people, the cultural heritage, the intellectual contribution, the philosophy etc. So when you get a country like that(which unfortunately is becoming an easy to rage bate, illiterate mob now) rooting for you, it gives you an ethical clearance despite all the allegations that Trump is facing.
Trump is kind of a person who’s neither a good friend nor foe. Distance is the only option, which Modi failed at. Let’s hope he does it now. I truly believe that the impact that Tariffs are going to have can be mitigated by internal reforms here. Promoting a competitive culture in business rather than govt sponsored riskless capitalism will do a great benefit. He’s totally failed at controlling corruption starting from gram panchayat level, to bureaucracy and political system. It’s not difficult if more technology is incorporated into these areas, like it’s been done in direct benefit transfer schemes. Blockchain technology to track the govt spendings is one such solution, but not sure if they’re interested in that.
If our competitive culture grows, and we’re able to increase our efficiency and export capability, it can be an onset of better times of India, because Trump is not going to be there forever, a more price efficient India will then export a lot more than it does today.
My only fear is, instead of fostering innovation and healthy competition, we might see the govt compensating our big conglomerates with public money(in the form of overpriced govt contracts) for the loss they’ll incur due to tariffs. Let’s hope for the best.
Modi has surrendered again to Uncle Trump;
Modi is following the same policy now of British stooge Gandhi after all Modi too is a Gujarati baniyaa like Gandhi.
Sancho Panza. what a reference couldn’t have been better 😂😂
Hi Dr. Karnad,
Modi is doing a reasonably good job under the present circumstances. Probably, you prefer a Congress government at the center. If UPA had continued beyond 2014, China would have grabbed Arunachal Pradesh effortlessly. Don’t you want to see what Modi has done in the North East in strengthening the infrastructure? Why are the erstwhile sick PSUs like BEL, HAL, BDL etc. are the darlings of stock market these days? is there any benefit to the nation by throwing the defence and space sectors open to the private sector? Could you have imagined such initiatives under the UPA-type dispensation?
Who is taking Trump seriously? He is known in popular circles as TACO-Trump always chickens out. You are speaking like Rahul Gandhi by asking irksome questions like how many Rafaels did we lose? If Trump has not forced India to stop the recent war with Pakistan, call Trump a LIAR! etc.
You should read my scathing critiques of the Manmohan Singh-Congress govt policies in my books
Sir I thought you are a smart person, you are saying ‘ BRICS, potentially an economic giant’. Sir are you serious??
BRICS is a useless organization. It has no economic power, no military power. Even India and China hate BRICS, China focuses on SCO. Brazil and SA are almost failed countries. Only country that can challenge US in BRICS is China. Do we want that?
Now the main point, its very important. I dont know how nobody has noticed it till now.
TRUMP IS A RUSSIAN/FSB ASSET
1)That’s why Trump is letting Putin finishing the war in Ukraine and stopping all military aid to Ukraine. it does not make any sense.
2)Trump saved Ayatollah of Iran when Israel was close to assassinating him bcz Ayatollah Iran are Russian allies.
3) Trump is destroying relations with long standing allies/partners like EU, Aus, Japan, India, Canada, Mexico but he wants to do business with Russia. Russia mainly exports oil, gas, natural elements which US have plenty.
4) Trump destroying internal institutions of US under instructions from Russia
5)People are shocked why Trump is behaving like mad man with India. Its bcz that’s what Putin wants. Putin wants India to get frustrated with US and become part of their RCI club. Does not matter how much India appease Trump he will behave like a mad man to make us frustrate and go back to the shelter of Russia.
6)There are many pro Russian shills/FSB assets in US politics like Jimmy Dore, Jackson Hinkle, Tucker Carlson, Steve Banon, AOC, Bernie Sanders, Sagar Enjeeti, Krystal ball. Watch their opinion about India you would realize if Russia is really a friend!!!
Now let me predict end of ukraine russian war.
Russia will capture some strategic land in next few weeks/months. Trump will act angry in media but wont do anything against russia. Once Putin is satisfied that they got all strategic areas , putin and trump will declare ceasefire together. Trump will remove all sanctions on russia and start doing business with russia to improve russian economy. Trump and russia will normalise all bilateral ties between them, like arrival visa, sprots tournament.
I am 100% sure this going to happen.
Re: BRICS — it is not important what you or I think about this group. What’s important is Trump thinks it is a potential competitor.
And re: results of war your “100%” solution — it was predicted by me nearly at the beginning of the war in Feb 2022 (look up my posts)!
!
are you saying bhaajapaa cannot offer an alternative p.m. and country must stick to pradhan moorkh = moolaa moodee?
if yes, than what is the difference between the con-gra-ass who insist on a joker gandee as the only leader and no one else from their cult camp?
if your bhaajapaa is so short of leaders, then it is better that the country should look at alternatives to both bhaajapaa and con-gra-ass
@Frank Under- What you say about Trump being a Russian Intelligence asset is cent percent true;
https://www.milwaukeeindependent.com/explainers/russian-asset-trumps-policy-behavior-confirms-evidence-groomed-kremlin-since-1980s/
Hindu Sena which did a havan for Trump’s victory in the U.S Presidential elections is now planning a havan for Trump to get a heart attack and leave this earthly abode.
Thank you again. Was waiting for your take. It was on expected lines. As someone who never cared much for the H1B visa I can say we don’t need to drain our brains to US and no country can provide the scale India does in IT services. They can’t do without us. I only wish we show some spine and
@BharatKarnad
Professor karnad any updates regarding your upcoming title sir?
What are your views on trump saying that indian economy is dead economy
And
US to help pakistan in filling their oil reserves
After reading each and every new essay and book of yours i get a new unparalleled opinion and mindset on geopolitics
So my regards
Would like to know your opinions on above questions
Many American experts have called Trump “the village idiot”. Indian economy is dynamic despite GOI! Not much oil other than the fast depleting Sui oil field in Balochistan, and Balochistan is up in arms. The book — yea — you may not have to wait tooo long!
Dear Sir, Good thing is F-35 deal is over, no javelin’s or any other major defense deal with US. We should never trust unreliable US, let us sacrifice whatever 1 percent of GDP due to tarrif.
US bullying is as bad as Chinese expansionist agenda for India.
Better to bring down US dominance with RIC, BRICS and resume the fight with China later.
What is your opinion on this?
Email from Air Marshal Harish Masand (Retd)
1 Aug at 11:18 am
Henry Kissinger himself is reported to have said, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal”.
Shashi Tharoor today published a good article on how to move forward after the tariff announcement.
Blue skies to all,
Harish
Recently completed why india is not a great power yet , commendable work the analysis of previous policy decisions was impressive .
Something to consider professor, there is lack of understanding of realpolitik and hardpower in our nation which you have preached all your career , why don’t you inspire next generation of thinkers and policy makers , I got exposed to your work after canadian vaad podcast,
You should do your own lecture series on YouTube on muscular military strategistation and foreign policy for our country that can ignite and divert young minds to new ideas that are not popular in discourse .
a lecture series by you would attract your politics in main course general discussions and benefits the nation more than anything
Shivam@ — Yes, this has been suggested by many. And yes there is no understanding, leave alone appreciation of realpolitik and hard power as essential pillars of foreign and military policies. And, yes again, that there are few analysts of this school of thought in the country. But at 77, I have to husband my time as best as I can, and podcast, lecture series, etc. are great ideas demanding more time and resources than I am willing to commit to given other priority interests — the book I am trying to complete, and an augmented version of Nuclear Weapons & Indian Security.
@Professor Karnad- You have done more than enough to install sense in the Indian establishment through your regular columns, books and talks.
Unfortunately, corruption, incompetence and arrogance are so firmly ingrained in the Indian DNA that nothing will ever change in the country.
Yet, I have tremendous respect for your persistent endeavors to make India a true leader in global affairs.
I am traveling to Hongkong for a few days from our place in mainland China. Once I am back, I will email you with a suggestion
@BharatKarnad
yeah I too had suggested you last month to increase your social media presence
i knew about the upcoming title but not about an updated version of nuclear weapons and Indian security. Really looking forward to it . Though the 2002 book is 200 percent worth reading in 2025 but a updated version will give a new perspective and will be better.
but professor what about your first book called future imperilled i have all your books except future imperilled. The geo strategic architecture that you suggest looking interesting and thought provoking.
i would like to know whether you have any plans for future imperilled or not. You are the owner maybe republish it in a small number so that interested readers can get hold of a copy.
@BharatKarnad The current Government of India [GOI] headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] and Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister of India have no self-respect at all!
Donald Trump is a racist, rude, arrogant, hypocritical, discriminatory, freeloader and cheapskate.
Donald John Trump should be replied in kind to each and every word and action of his, be it in public or social media or in private, which have been nothing but insulting and condescending towards India.
Dealing with Donald John Trump is like fighting a pig, in this case, the pig likes fighting and India will undoubtedly get dirtied while fighting this pig which heads the USA, but, India has no other option but to fight this pig and the 27 other pigs in the so-called European Union [EU], if the Government of India [GOI], the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] and Narendra Modi have self-respect, which they seem to have mortgaged, and for what? To get closer to the USA and the so-called West!
It doesn’t matter if India has to stoop to the level of Donald John Trump and the so-called European Union [EU], stoop it should, if India has self-respect and doesn’t want to take things lying down!
In the current situation, even God can’t save India!
That’s the misfortune that has befallen India!
@BharatKarnad
as you must be aware professor that trump has deployed nuclear submarines near russian Waters so as to warn the russians
.The orange man thinks as if russia doesn’t have SSBN and SSN or putin does not have thermonuclear weapons in his hands
Well coming to my question what if trump in future or let’s say any american President or government that is against india does the same
I.e deploying american nuclear submarines in indian Ocean aimed at india. Though they will think many times before taking such a step.
our SSBN force is in development and will take 10 years
Well what can be india’s response what do we do to prevent this use of force and coercion from United States against india
would like to know your opinion
Putin laughed off Trump’s N-sub threats, saying “hope they stay afloat”!
@BharatKarnad
but professor my question was what do we do if such a thing happens with us
trump is idiot no doubt but you see those Ohio class SSBNs are still weapons of mass annihilation doesn’t matter if a idiot commands it it is still a weapon
putin and medvedev can laugh because they have thermonuclear warheaded forces with ICBM of huge magnitude they know they have the most powerful nuclear force in the world and they will respond.
what about us ?
as k santhanam said in an article i remember he said we are naked against future chinese and american nuclear onslaught
Resumption of high yield thermonuclear tests is the only panacea
Dr Karnad, Is it true that IAF is supporting the F-35 purchase in order to pacify Trump administration ? Regarding your article, you are right to differentiate between Modi and Lula. The real difference lies in the fact that Lula was a serious firebrand trade union leader from Sao Paulo before he became Brazil president. He did endure jail terms. That is the key difference I believe. What do you think?
@BharatKarnad
Would like to summarize your 2002 tome nuclear weapons and indian security in a few points
1)Nuclear Weapons & Indian Security. More than a retrospective, it reads like a doctrinal curtain-raiser: one of many state-backed narratives (like perhaps Tellis’) softening global thresholds for what India intends to become
2)Professor passionately thanks the Indian govt for facilitating the book. Its admissions are telling: from thermonuclear ambitions to ICBMs and MIRVs, the signal is clear india is not dressing up for a deterrent role alone only
3)India’s refusal to sign the CTBT and its opposition to the FMT are strategic enablers. Karnad argues will retest thermonuclear weapons once the opportunity arises. Mixed signals serve the purpose of delay, not denial
4)By citing pakistan as the obstacle, india buys time while expanding fissile stockpiles. The real driver is not china Not pakistan but global revisionism, cloaked in NFU rhetoric and framed for elite consumption abroad
5)Professor’s case for high-yield TNWs, flexible targeting, escalation dominance & “selective mirroring” of U.S. posture reveals true strategic trajectory designed for compellence
6)All dressed up, nowhere to go? On the contrary india doctrine & posture signal clear intent. Yet some continue to see ambiguity as restraint, considering india a strategic partner. It’s the slow boil of strategic permissiveness, not partnership
7)Karnad’s & similar works are architecture to be read not as theories, but preparatory justification. The ambiguity is not accidental; it’s doctrinal theatre Such quasi-govt signalling can be dismissed at own perils india’s plausible deniability is deliberate policy. Strategic clarity requires peeling back the veil; not rewarding opacity
wanted to add more points but this only as of now
what do you think about it sir am i correct?
One reservation: not sure where I “passionately thanked the government”! I expressed my gratitude to KC Pant and Jaswant Singh, the two politicians I was close to.