[Strikes on JeM HQ at Bahawalpur]
Attacks launched at 1:44 AM this morning on nine terrorist targets within Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, including headquarters of the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba in Muridke outside Lahore and of the Jaish-e-Mohammad in Bahawalpur, both located in the Punjab heartland of Pakistan, are significant.
Significant, chiefly because a huge psychological barrier has been breached by the Indian government with precision guided munition strikes, to minimise collateral damage. This strike is something of a climacteric in that the Indian military will henceforth consider militarily engaging with Pakistan in a more frontal manner.
Per a statement by the Indian Ministry of Defense, the actions were “focused, measured, and non-escalatory in nature”; “No Pakistani military facilities” were targeted and “demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution.”
The Pakistani government was, perhaps, distracted by the announcement of a major air drill scheduled for today that accounted for the massed presence of air assets strung along the border leading to the Pakistanis letting their guard down somewhat. It helped mask the execution of the first phase of Sindoor.
Islamabad first claimed downing two IAF aircraft, upped it to three aircraft, and a little later five Indian planes. On the face of it, these claims are an exaggeration; but a couple of drones may have been shot down. The ball is in General Asim Munir’s court. Depending on what’s struck by Pakistan’s in-coming, the 2nd phase of ‘Sindoor’ will be implemented.
For reasons not readily discernible, India has been inhibited in the past in using its marked conventional military edge against Pakistan. It has not fought “wars” with Pakistan to a decision, as happened in 1971. Inconclusive conflicts, and the reluctance of the Vajpayee (BJP) and Manmohan Singh (Congess) regimes to mount harsh and sustained military retaliation after terrorist strikes on Parliament — the symbol of India’s sovereignty in 2000, and on Mumbai in 2008, encouraged General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, to actually believe Pakistan is the military equal of India. And, worse, that India run by “lalas” (the usual Pakistani denigration of Indians) don’t have the stomach for a fight, etc further stoking the myth of “martial races” that the Pakistan army has a large stake in.
The Modi government has finally broken through the Indian state’s own system of self-deterrence, of inhibitions, by striking terrorist havens deep inside Pakistan, giving proof of its intent to physically demolish facilities and installations within Pakistan being utilised in the until now successful use of terrorism as asymmetric warfare, and going well beyond hunting down individual terrorist leaders, which programme too will continue. After all, the Hydra-headed monster needs to have its heads cutoff everytime a new set of heads are sprouted, in the manner Israel has contained Hamas and Hezbollah.
Sindoor has also signalled that India is prepared to escalate if the Pakistan army wants escalation — the choice of the escalatory level being Munir’s to make. The Pak COAS is under the pump. He can believe his own army’s well entrenched advertisements about itself and Pakistan, and choose to go disproportionate. He could order counter strikes on military targets within India, which will surely draw swift and heftier Indian conventional response at every turn. It should rightly open up the possibility of Indian military actions — which hopefully the army is preparing for, to take the Haji Pir Bulge, or even Skardu. This action-reaction sequence could lead to Munir contemplating what Pakistani strategists and commentators have a little too readily, albeit rhetorically, evoked — the nuclear button. Except, in their telling in a nuclear exchange “Hindu India” is destroyed but, magically, the “Land of the Pure” is spared damage!
Munir has no alternative other than to back down. After his vituperative Koran-spouting performance before an audience of Non-Resident Pakistanis the other day, that will mean losing face. But better a lost face, or even a rationalised LOC with Haji Pir and Skardu in Indian hands, than one’s own country lost as irradiated ruins. The fact is Pakistan’s threat of nuclear first use is manifestly silly besides being suicidal. Having brought the proceedings to this pitch, GHQ-R can do little else now than say nothing and lump it. Especially because no one is buying Pakistan’s case of Pahalgam as a “false flag” Indian operation, etc. Had it been otherwise, it would have registered at the UN Security Council meeting yesterday where Pakistan, a temporary member, found other member states openly voicing skepticism about Pakistan’s view.
Still, a Pak army chief mouthing the kind of Gazwaihind-nonsense that Munir did suggests, he is more likely to be deposed by a cabal of sensible corps commanders, prompted by Washington, Riyadh and UAE than that he will be left free to inflict even worse damage on his own country. Munir may want to go down as a ghazi. His fellow generals are unlikely to follow him, faced as they are with no good options but with every incentive to retire to their ill-earned farmhouses!
[And could we have a bit better informed media — PLEASE! Or does the Indian public have to learn from blah-blahing ignoramuses about “Pashtun regiments” in the Pakistan army; so, what next “Sindhi” formations marching through the Cholistan Desert to occupy India to fulfill Munir’s fevered dreams?!!]
Security Wise 
Good Morning Sir, Your observation about bleak chances of Pakistan surviving nuclear attack needs attention in the media. Warm Regards Gp Capt R K Narang VM (Retd.) PhD
You know better than I, Group Captain Narang, that the most obvious facts escape just about everybody!
(In any case, the adverse exchange ratio in a nuclear conflict is something I have been hammering away
at, since my time in the first NSAB and my first big book — Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security, published
in 2002, and in subsequent books and writings, apparently, without much effect!)
Hi Mr. Karnad,
I strongly oppose India launch a conventional war against Pakistan because Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Indians like myself do not want to die in a Pakistani nuclear attack.
Pakistan has nukes. India has nukes. As a result no conventional war should ever be fought.
Modi is a fool and a maniac for starting this conflict. Indian generals should understand that preventing nuclear war is more important than scoring “political” points through crap like Operation Sindoor.
Signed,
Pravin Ravishanker (a Indian Hindu)
Please professor would you care to comment on Victor Gao’s statement ” ironclad brother”
Not sure what “ironclad brother” means. If the past is prelude, it surely does NOT mean China coming to Pak’s aid in war with India.
just to understand
it in concise terms
so does this mean –
by *avoiding to hit military targets inside pork-i-stan*
and also by expressly stating the same point is the Modi government confirming that and/or
is the *bree-tish eema-anee aar-mee* confirming that pork-i-stan military and pork-i-stan generals
are *not* responsible and therefore are *not* accountable for the attack by the muslims on the hindus at pahalgam?
@BharatKarnad
Professor do you now appreciate modi and our forces they did change their tactics like after balakot your main concern was that the government did not release any proofs and the targets choosen were far away from pakistan’s mainland .The fact is pakistan won the narrative war.
this time it’s different foreign secretary Misri in today’s press conference released almost 20 photos and footages of missiles hitting and drone making impacts on their respective targets.Now they cannot make any baseless claims that we have bombed some trees or killed some crows
@DrKarnad Don’t you think Operation Sindoor going by what information has been made available by the Government of India is ineffective? Ineffective in the sense that India has only targeted the terrorists, not their backers, the Pakistani Army and the ISI. Because this is like mowing unwanted grass instead of uprooting it.
Yes. But the important thing is strikes were inside Pakstan proper. The escalation may happen in the manner. At Pakistan’s increasing cost.
@DrKarnad In your learned opinion, will there be a massive Pakistani retaliation, even when Pakistan knows that it can’t afford the resources for the same, because India has struck Pakistani Punjab – the state which dominates Pakistan, be it it armed forces, government, bureaucracy and political spheres – and rules Pakistan? Also, what role do you think France will play in this war in view of the past anti-Emmanuel Macron and anti-France protests in Pakistan and what happened after that in view of the Pakistani Armed Forces French-origin military hardwares?
ordman@ — “massive Paki retaliation” unlikely. In fact, the Pak govt has taken the offramp saying India should discontinue ongoing military activity, or Pakistan will react. Meaning, it won’t respond to Muridke-Bahawalpur attacks. Still, let’s wait and see.
Too vague response, if it has been Israel they would have felt already hell out of sky. They killed 28 innocent and well earning people Which already cost millions of dollar gdp loss virtually.in response we should have taken at-lest 300-400 lives.On top of it, why india still need approval from US for protecting its own interest? We are far away from being self esteemed nation. This is the reason patriotism is joke in india because peoples life has no value.
Dear Dr Karnad,
Chinese publications are reporting as if Pakistan has shoot down Indian fighter jets ie Mirages and Rafaels. Could this be true ? The Chinese publications seem to believe that Pakistan can hold on it’s own with India even in a conventional skirmish such as this one. What do you think ? https://theprint.in/opinion/eye-on-china/how-china-is-seeing-operation-sindoor/2617197/
If the purpose of this operation, and many before it, is to stop the future cross-border terrorism then it’ll be ineffective – as it overlooks the ‘desert’ within that supports it.
Even if there were no cross-border terrorism, or PK were a friendly state, we should still set our eyes on entire South Asia and work to acquire it no matter what the chattering classes inside or outside say.
These small kinetic operations are an impediment to achieving that larger goal, as it compels PK to fortify itself making future plans harder to implement.
PK must be dismantled and dissolved through careful and covert warfare!
India has to be careful not to overplay its hand. Terminating PK, etc is not possible, nor is it in India’s longterm interest.
US and China will continue to fund PK to keep us unbalanced, and PK will continue its efforts until India becomes ‘desertified’, at which point it will either be taken over by PK, become an irrelevant nation, or be balkanized by the prevailing powers.
@DrKarnad Do you think Pakistan will be in a split mind due to Operation Sindoor? Because they’re pragmatic to know that use of nuclear weapons, even if they’ve a NFU would lead to Pakistan’s end, but, at the same time, they’re also suicidal to have authorised the use of tactical nuclear weapons to their military commanders against India.
Also, maybe they don’t have ready targets in India, which is why the Akali Dal has already accused Pakistan of targeting a Sikh gurudwara in J&K.
What is your learned view on this including France in my previous comment?
Gen Munir faces a dilemma, and he’ll be hard put to make choice that is not hurtful to Pakistan!
France is an arms seller and will not alienate a longtime customer.
@DrKarnad France won’t alienate Pakistan? Is that what you mean? Even after the anti-France protests in Pakistan after the caricature of Mohammed?
Afraid so.
@DrKarnad, Many news publications like CNN and thehindu are stating that three Indian Rafael jets were shot, quoting an anonymous French Official. Isn’t this embarassment of the highest cost? That is a huge loss to the IAF and dilutes the mission success.
sowl@ — Assuming the Pak reports of downed Rafale are true, it absolutely reflects on the quality of the aircraft and, even more, the quality of IAF pilots firing their BVR weapons from the safety of home air space and still getting shot off. Refer my previous post re: quality of IAF pilots, and umpteen posts re: Rafale as a worthless buy — the platform being different from the BVR weapons — esp. Scalp A2G ordnance, etc.
I feel there is vested interest of many parties in deescalating the conflict so this is kind of facesaver west is trying to give to Pakistan so that it does not retaliates.Long term is to weaponise IWT and use it time to time to make Pakistan realise it’s vulnerability just like how Pakistan uses terrorism.
I don’t understand the hype around losing aircraft. This is part and parcel of war you accept it and move on.US the most powerful nation had to leave Afganistan .I also feel it’s a good reality check for our armed forces .
Indian psychology puzzles me they are okay losing people life in accidents,falling bridges and other hazards but suddenly become very touchy when we lose aircraft.
@DrKarnad In your learned view, do you really believe any IAF combat aircraft irrespective of whether they were in the Indian or Pakistani airspace during Operation Sindoor were shot down? Because even though The Hindu and the CNN to name some have reported that, The Hindu and the CNN both are Left-wing news and media organisations with an anti-Narendra Modi & anti-BJP bias, but, have some credibility due to being in the news and media industry due to a long time. So, who do you think we should belive, the GOI briefings or what’s being reported in the Indian and the international media?
No.
Professor,
Another drama begins. There are so many wars and hotspots in the world today that none of it seems to matter, unless one is directly involved. Quite weird!
India has lost 15 civilians since the operations. Did we have the right deterrence ?
Operation Sindoor: 15 civilians killed, 43 injured in Pakistani shelling, firing in Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, evacuations ordered – India Today
Cannot have mil ops w/o losses
Email from Lt Gen Balli Pawar (Retd), former DG, Army Aviation
balli pawar
Thu, 8 May at 12:23 pm
Dear Bharat totally agree with your analysis
Rgds
Email from Air Marshal VK Verma (Retd)
vinod kumar verma
Thu, 8 May at 11:52 am
Good one
Email from Lt Gen Anil Chait, former GOC, II Corps and retired as Chief of the Integrated Defence Staff
Anil Chait
Thu, 8 May at 1:54 pm
I always believed that terrorists have no nationality and those protecting them and providing support, are as much to be punished as the perpetrators themselves irrespective of IB/LC/CFL .
Thank you for reminding us that a psychological barrier has been breached. I agree since, It only brought to focus my dream of 2010, which took 15 years in incubation to mature while heading a strike corps in the western sector .
Anil Chait
Do you see this as escalation ?
India targets air defence units across Pakistan and Lahore – India Today
IAF’s S-400 air defence missile systems thwart Pak drone-missile attacks last night, targets neutralised – India Today
Operation Sindoor ongoing; 100 Pakistani terrorists killed in Indian strikes – India Today
In a statement, the government said on the intervening night of May 7-8, Pakistan attempted to target a number of military installations in Awantipura, Srinagar, Jammu, Pathankot, Amritsar, Kapurthala, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Adampur, Bhatinda, Chandigarh, Nal, Phalodi, Uttarlai, and Bhuj, using drones and missiles.
No, not yet!
Email from Dr V. Siddhartha, former science adviser tothe Defence Minister
V Siddhartha
Thu, 8 May at 3:36 pm
Re: “Especially because no one is buying Pakistan’s case of Pahalgam as a “false flag” Indian operation, etc.”
…except Siddaramiah [Karnataka chief minister of the Congress Party] who is on record to say the he believes the PM had advance knowledge of the terrorist action, and “that is why he cancelled his visit to Kashmir”
VS
I assume, Rahul G’s falling quickly behind Modi govt supercedes Siddaramiah’s spoutings.
@DrKarnad In in your knowledgeable view, in view of today’s performance of the S-400 and Harpy’s in thwarting Pakistani retaliation as reported by the media, will India buy more of Russian and Israeli military hardwares including the S-500? I also read on the web that France is reluctant to share the source code of the Rafales and proposing phased and collaborative use of the Rafale’s source code so that India doesn’t get it completely. Is this true? If yes, what should India do?
Absolutely true re: Rafale, and lot worse. The French also screwed us on the Kaveri jet engine when the consultancy contract only led to Safran delaying the project, stretching out the consultancy, until IAF decided on Rafale when the French company formally de-boarded!
@DrKarnad Will France also share Rafale’s source code in a phased way like with India or completely with a fellow EU and NATO member-cum-client like Greece? And I’m not being racist here, but, I kind of feel some White arms sellers like France treat their non-White clients differently. For example, the Rafales sold to Egypt were degraded, in the sense, the longer-range missiles weren’t sold due to Israeli and maybe US pressure. And, I’m not saying the Israelis are racist, because, then they wouldn’t have evacuated the Ethiopian Jews. But, I kind of feel that in France.
@DrKarnad Do systems like the Harpy’s and the S-400 have source codes too? Will India buy more Israeli and Russian stuff now?
news is coming that jammu airport has been attacked . There is a blackout in Jammu . News is not much verified.
it is legit nearly all major indian population centres(jammu,pathankot,adampur,amritsar,jaisalmer) which are closer to the border are under drone attacks and are in blackout
news now https://indianexpress.com/article/india/jammu-explosion-blackout-9991277/
Jaisalmer has been attacked it seems (this not verified)
@BharatKarnad
as of now on 08/07/2025 at 9:30pm jammu ,pathankot ,udhampur ,jaisalmer and amritsar are under attack. This is the forth time that drones and missile are being exchanged on each other’s cities
is war eminent professor?
No. It is a face-saving off-ramp for Pakistan
But sir our forces will strike back too within a couple of hours
and then they are also forced too do something
this is like a endless loop
where will it stop
here we go reported counterstrikes on lahore,sialkot , karachi and cannot confirm this even on islamabad
this night will be long
Hit the nail on the head!
how do we contain this multi headed hydra for good? No guarantees that this short term offensive / redrawn LoC will teach them a lesson for good – the legitimacy of the Pak military and its control on the Pak state lies it’s so called ability to keep the narrative alive.
various ‘experts’ are postulating the dismemberment of the Pak state – if that’s even a possibility, how is it going to play out? The ramifications for India are too many
all in all, a great mindset change to start with. But can’t rest on short term successes.
India should use this opportunity to become a communist state, suspend idiocracy, and follow Deng’s path of economic and military progress. Move the capital from Delhi to Madhya Pradesh if the need be, to ensure safe transition of power.
Get full control over information space, do the Canada style debanking of select political/info operatives and their funders, dismantle the financial infrastructure of the fifth column.
And after this operation is over test the N-weapons, aim for the megaton yield.
This is the best chance to break the fetters of democracy and pursue power.
Vishwaguru is doing caste census which will put Pasmanda in OBC and increase their quota. He’s putting them in positions of power in every gov dept. You can’t transition into anything if your personnel consists of such people.
Remember, USAID openly funded some 35000 operatives to act as journalists. Just imagine what they must be doing covertly in every domain.
There is a better understanding of what needs to be done, and the nature of ‘M’, amongst Indians than the anglicized servant class in media, academia, bureaucracy and judiciary. It’s not really surprising given most Indians are bred to be servants.
The biological underpinnings of human beliefs and actions are so understudied and poorly understood in India. The sooner we eliminate gynocracy, democracy, and gerontocracy, the sooner we’ll escape what Nietzscheans refer to as the ‘longhouse.’
https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/
International media(Reuters) are saying that 2 of our jets-with one possibly being a rafale were shot down by Paki millitary. They say potentially a J10 was used to fire the air to air missiles.
I don’t understand how they were shot down in our territory. This incident really has me worried about the state of our airforce.
Professor, do you think it would be opportune for a more aggressive push for theaterisation if in fact Rafale’s were downed by a third rate power? IAF’s parochialism is clearly on display and even if the Rafale’s were not the best pick, they have severely under-performed.
CAS ACM Chaudhury had signed up for the theaterisation plan of the CDS. It has been delayed by the IAF since.
Email from Rear Admiral Raja Menon (Retd), former ACNS (Ops)
Raja MenonTo:bharat karnad
Fri, 9 May at 12:58 pm
Agree with you Bharat, of all the institutions in India, the electronic media in particular has disgraced itself.
Regards
Raja
Read this;
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/balochistan-attacks-on-pakistan-army-bla-rebels-fighters-overrun-flag-hoist-independence-liberation-calls-2722171-2025-05-09
This excerpt from the aforementioned link clearly proves India’s covert support to BLA.
“We have claimed our independence, and we request India to allow Balochistan’s official office, and embassy in Delhi,”
Dear Dr Karnad, some Pakistani commentators are claiming that for yesterday’s operation, China had given them original domestic use PL- missiles just 3 days before the Indian operation. This has almost double the range of export quality PL missiles and therefore Pakistan was able to bring down our Rafael. Curiously they are saying that before the Chinese came to them with these advanced versions of PL , the US through the Saudi interlocutor channels, had already informed them about the impending Indian attack by turning on their regional satelite. I want your expert opinion on whether this could be a joint US-China plot whereby the Chinese get the bragging rights for their PL missiles to the potential global South customers and the Americans get to impress upon gullible Modiji and Jayashankarji by peddling about their bondoogle F-35s ? What do you think?
In this high stakes game, almost anything is possible.
@Prof. Karnad
I think this war has put your pakistan thesis to serious test.
1 One cannot afford to re-distribute big strike corps away from pakistan towards china. That is an unfortunate reality. The recent development proves it.
2. You cannot “coopt pakistan”. An authoritarian religious regime cannot be baited into peaceful co-existence by reducing offensive military posture.
Rather it must be “coerced” into good behavior by exacting serious military and political costs.
3. Pakistan is not a “buffer” state. It is a conventional, terroristic, idealogical and a nuclear adversary. It is an enemy and must be treated as such.
On a different note, India is proving to be far far stronger than we all thought – infact it should dominate the escalation ladder more!
1 strike corps + holding formations adequate for all Pak contingencies.
Dear Dr Karnad, this below Pakistani journalist is claiming that a Pakistani missile destroyed a S400 battery in recent skirsmish inside India (from 10:40 onwards). The journalist is known to be a moderate voice and opposed to the present military establishment and jailed multiple times by the military establishment for his views. Do you think this could be true here ?https://youtu.be/Gbs-aG4lKz4?si=eiDbiYtUA54vRuRL
@BharatKarnad
professor i am really surprised how much our elite and policy makers are influenced by the american government .
trump says india and pakistan have agreed on a ceasefire and it has been confirmed by all major ministers and secretaries from both the countries.
like Americans did the same thing during kargil
would like to know your opinion
Back to a ceasefire! That too brokered by the Yankees apparently. Did anything concretely change after this episode apart from the breach of the psychological barrier as you said ? Some say we demonstrated a doctrinal change in how we will deal with cross border terrorism, is that significant ? Only time will tell. As far as it concerns the Pak army, my feelings can be summarised as, “What doesn’t kill you, will only make you stronger”
Is agreeing to a ceasefire now a mistake? India had the opportunity to punish the terror industry more thoroughly…
In a few years they’ll strike again and the drama repeats.
sohamg@ — Yes
psychological barrier continues?
Subject: Appreciation for Your Honest and Impartial Analysis
Dear Professor Bharat Karnad,
I hope this message finds you well. I am writing to express my sincere appreciation, as a Pakistani with similar impartial and unbiased approach, for your insightful and honest analysis of the complex and escalating skirmish between India and Pakistan. Your impartial approach to such a sensitive and often polarizing topic is both rare and commendable.
Your ability to present facts with clarity, while maintaining objectivity, offers a valuable perspective that encourages critical thinking and understanding. In a world where narratives are often shaped by bias, your commitment to truth and transparency is truly admirable.
Thank you for your valuable contributions to the discourse on the ongoing conflict. I look forward to your continued work and learning from your expertise.
Warm regards,
Abdul Rehman Khan.
Lahore, Pakistan.