[Launch of the hypersonic missile from the Kalam test range]
The hypersonic test firing took its time coming. From its look, it is a low 6 Mach-end 1,500 km medium range missile. More like the Russian Kinzhal. That it was fired from a TEL (transporter, erector, launcher) suggests it is either already deployed, or in the process of being fielded. This is good news.
The government took an unconscionably long time to field the Agni-V IRBM and successfuly tested the Agni-Prime with maneuvering re-entry vehicle (MARV) only in 2020. Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL) should have been permitted to proceed parallelly, with developing and testing the hypersonic glide missile earlier than the programme was authorised to do so. The hypersonics, because they do not break out into space, are powered by air-breathing scramjet engines, and can rink and dink in their trajectory to target — are virtually impossible to get a radar fix on for an anti-ballistic missile system intercept. So, the US Patriot-3s, the Israeli Arrow-3s — the best of the current ABM systems, are of no avail.
This is fine. With the basic design tested, what needs to happen as priority are three things: Firstly, a real long range 8,000 km variant has to be rapidly developed, productionised, and fielded. Because of the Indian government’s characteristic strategic short-sightedness, the country has tarried too long with the short range and medium range stuff — the Prithvi’s and the 700 km Agni-1s. The Strategic Forces Command all these years was, therefore, denied the option readily to take out Bejing with multiple vectors, especially an un-interdictable hypersonic missile.
Secondly, an aircraft-launched version of this glide vehicle has to be tested soonest to afford a more versatile and flexible strike option.
Except, the hypersonic edge will last only so long as the Chinese don’t field a glide intercept system of the kind the US is developing and hopes to have working by the mid-2030s. And what the Americans can do, the Chinese have proved they can do faster!
The rate of production of missiles by Bharat Dynamics and other wasteful defence public sector units has been abyssmal — so bad, it is enough to make a grown man cry! It is therefore time, as I have been arguing — futilely it turns out — for some 20 years now, for the production of all missiles (as also the Tejas LCA, AMCA) to be farmed out to the far more competent, efficient, profit-minded private sector companies. That’s the only way we’ll have formidable forces in near to mid-term. And really get India on the path to genuine defence industrial powerhouse status that Modi’s atmnirbharta rhetoric has promised.
Thirdly, and most importantly, ASL, Hyderabad — one of the few, truly accomplished, units in DRDO, needs to quickly pivot its tremendous R&D capability to get a variant of the hypersonic as a space-borne system to the testing stage. The Chinese “Long March” missile operates on the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) mode. The warhead in the FOBS regime is released in space for re-entry to hit target, which is impossible for any system to track. That’s the system the Indian hypersonics require to transition to fast. It will make the Indian hypersonic FOBS a truly frightening piece of weaponry.
Because India has always been a technology laggard more because of government decisions than lack of indigenous talent and capability, Hypersonic FOBS is the way, for the country for a change to be in the vanguard rather than, as always, bringing up the rear.
The thing to fear, however, is the government’s lassitude in critical decisionmaking. In 2023, for instance, the BrahMos corp advertised that “If we want a hypersonic missile, we will take only eight years to develop it after the approval from the government.” That approval never came. Had it done so, there’d have been by now two competing lines that would have produced better hypsersonic missiles! This is how the arms race is lost to an immensely more agile and far-thinking adversary — China.
Security Wise 
@BharatKarnad
professor curious to know what is that circular/disc shaped object on the top of the missile(in the pic above) ?
Wondering about that too. I don’t know what it is.
i am guessing maybe something related to navigational, test data
Don’t think so.
professor my bad it is the cap/lid of the canister when the missile took off it literally carried the lid with it.
this is hilarious and amazing both at the same time
But at activation, the lid is usually taken off the canister.
That’s just a see through hole, part of the contraption that’s firing it. No lid can be supported on the tip of missile when it fires forget about it carrying it once it attains hypersonic speeds.
can this be nuclear tipped because i know in one the interviews like 10 years ago you said that we need tested hypersonic missiles as soon as possible with a nuclear warhead these will be formidable weapon systems.
Yes
@BharatKarnad
professor why did you referred to Agni 5 as a IRBM isn’t it an ICBM .As the standard range for an ICBM accepted across the world is 5500km and Agni 5 can hit upto 8000km
Its range doesn’t fit definition of ICBM
then according to your analysis what range should a missile have to qualify as an ICBM
google
ohk i agree that it is not a icbm according to the standard american parameter a missile must be 6000miles(10000km approx) if it wants to be put under the category of icbm whereas agni5 is 5000miles(8000km aprox)
Professor,
Agni V is an ICBM, the definition of which is a ballistic missile greater than 5500 km range. One issue I have with your assessment of Indian capabilities is that you understate them. From an info warfare perspective, one would want to do the opposite. This is what China does – their weapon systems are not up to the mark, but they achieve so much just by overstating their capabilities.
The same thing with Indian nuclear weapons – their quality is not as bad as you portray them.
I’m not a big fan of overstating capabilities. But understating them is not helpful either. India has made tremendous progress in its weapon systems in the last five years and this needs to be highlighted correctly for appropriate military power projection.
We tend to overstate our capabilities. To wit, nuclear!
The quality of India’s rockets including the pinakas, Akash, Pralay, Agnis, Rudram etc., SSBNs, Aircraft Carrier, Tejas Mk1, radars, fission nuclear weapons, ATAGS, etc. are all good. Maybe the thermo nuclear weapon failed. But otherwise India’s indigenous weapon systems are of reasonably high quality. To Paint the entire nuclear weapons program as suspect plays into the hands of propagandists. A 250 kg fission warhead is a 100 KT weapon – yes India has the capability to make such weapons. It’s creating a narrative to say that India can only make 20KT fission fire crackers – which btw, is also false narrative – a 20 KT plutonium bomb can cause significant countervalue damage. Maybe there is some uncertainty on the 200-250 KT thermo nuclear bomb, but otherwise India’s nuclear arsenal is not as poor as you make it out to be.
Unless the Indian govt acquires the guts to resume open ended N-testing and upsetting the US, DO NOT claim thermonuclear status for the country.
that I did not! But the fission weapons India has can also do damage…and the numbers are increasing, with low CEP weapons delivery! My point is that India’s nuclear deterrent is not bogus.
No one said it was. But why then claim thermonuclear status?
yeah, I don’t know enough to claim or disclaim TN capability. There is doubt here. But even without it, the 20-100 KT fission on MIRV low CEP Agnis offer significant deterrence. Add to it the SSBN fleet and the recent hypersonic cruise capability and China will think twice about intimidating India. I’m also pretty sure more TN testing will happen in the future. Especially as China increases its nuclear weapons numbers. And let’s be clear on this – China does not yet have hypersonic cruise capability. They have glide vehicle hypersonic capability which is not the same. So India is ahead of China in this respect. This is what needs to be highlighted! That’s info warfare 101.
@Prof Karnad, @Amit
True that thermonuclear test and FBF, probably underperformed.
And perfecting their design was always an empirical process and assuming that one lone test is sufficient was extraordinarily stupid on part of Brijesh Mishra and ABV. And cold blooded treason on part of Chidambaram.
But I do wonder what the productionization of Agni 5 MIRV tell you about TN warheads? I mean they dont really intend to fit A5-D with 3 or more fission warheads do they?
On ICBM/IRBM
Argument here is moot. Extending the range is the simplest thing to achieve and India probably already has a 12k+ true ICBM in Agni 5D or the hypothetical Surya. The capping of range within IRBM is a pure political decision and a right one at that.
Amit@ — Limiting our weapons systems is never a good political decision, because it establishes a voluntary ceiling — as the 2008 N-deal with US has done on nuclear testing.
@Itanium, very correct. Why will India have an Agni V which has 10 MIRV capability and not have a good thermo nuclear bomb to deliver. Doesn’t make sense. But even with fission bombs, a 250 kg payload is 100 KT according to one article I read. With MIRV, India also acquires some counter force capability. And with hypersonic cruise (mach 9), it’s added deterrence. So India’s nuclear deterrence is not bad.
Professor, yeah with unproven TN, and limits in testing, there is room for improvement. I think that will also change in due course.
Professor,
I learnt that the recent hypersonic test was for a glide vehicle and not a cruise missile – based on a video analysis by a Lt. General. So this one is similar to what China has – Dongfeng 17. But India also tested a hypersonic demonstrator for a two plus minute flight a few months back – that is a cruise missile, which even China and the U.S. don’t have yet. So hypersonic cruise missile is yet to come apparently.
@Prof Karnad.
It makes sense in the case of capping the range. You don’t point guns at your allies. There is nothing to win by un-necessarily spooking the leadership in Moscow and Washington.
Voluntary moratorium of course was a tragic blunder and inexcusable shortsightedness where we did not get what we direly needed in face of a real enemy – China.
@BharatKarnad
professor you regularly say that our nuclear weapons yield is inferior they are literally firecrackers but you would definitely agree that the delivery systems are just flawless i mean you look at the accuracy of Agni missiles, brahmos, this hypersonic missile and how silent are Arihant class SSBN when compared to Jin class of the Chinese
wouldn’t you
They will take eons to graduate to 8000km range, whatever anybody may advise them, because USA will pull the plugs on transferring engine tech and rest we have Manmohan Singh’s pet deal to fall back on if anything else worries us less. They don’t feel intimidated that China has purportedly tested a hypersonic vehicle that can circle the globe (though it missed the target by miles). Even if they develop the capability of 8000 km they will not productionise it and officially confess 5000 km so as to humour Europe and US.
But at least we have teeths to show now if not exactly to bite ! Kudos to our scientists. Things are at least happening now, moving now on many fronts if not at pace one desires. We are exporting weapons, we have a 4.5 gen aircraft, we have MIRV, and we have a hypersonic missile.
As far as interdicting hypersonic missiles is concerned (not on ballistic trajectory), you will require speeds of Quantum computers and though China is a leader but quantum technology is at a very rudimentary stage. It is not happening anytime soon but Quantum technology will mark the end of stealth aircraft too. Cyberwar through quantum tech will leave the world exposed, communication will be impossible to jam and more but that for another day. Indians had demonstrated quantum communication though relatively between two close destinations too sometimes back. Net, we have a fail-safe weapon in this missile now for next couple of decades and that will make Chinese shudder.
Meanwhile you were reasoning that missiles and aircraft tech should be transferred to private companies for speedy production, I suspect privateers will transfer the tech to foreigners in underhand deals given our penchant for corruption. But that hasn’t happened in case of Lockheeds, Boeings, General Atomics, Raytheons so why not us with proper checks and balances.
A lumbering democracy that is India, you will see FOBS too but at their own pace.
@Gagandeep
what is your source when you said that quantum technology will mark the end of stealth aircraft. Is it written in some book if yes than which one?
You must have heard about Super Hornet Block III’s Distributed Targeting Processor-Networked (DTP-N) computer—which exponentially increases the Super Hornet’s processing power. Then it employs the high-speed, high-bandwidth, high-throughput anti-jam Internet Protocol-based Tactical Targeting Network Technology (TTNT) datalink.
When the power of the DTP-N and TTNT are combined with the IRST Block II sensor, the resulting capability allows for a pair of Block III Super Hornets to engage enemy stealth aircraft from well beyond visual range—far beyond the range of the jets’ Raytheon AN/APG-79 active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.
The theory is that if you have a single IRST, you can get a line of bearing—it’s going to see a hot spot out there, what direction it’s in, but it doesn’t have the required distance and so you don’t have a weapons quality track. On the other hand, if you employ two aircraft in combination, there results a fusion algorithm; now you have lines of bearing from two different sources. Where those two sources cross, the algorithm is going to compute a weapons quality track on that air-borne threat.
Quantum Computers with computing power millions of times by order of magnitude than current computers will require just slight returns to compute a weapons quality track. Already we are seeing very sophisticated radars (GAN AESA) and IRST devices. In another couple of decades where shall be the technology ?
@Gagandeep
Well i am sorry i am not an expert in these technical terms but would definitely read about them in future then it would make sense. I must appreciate you do have deep knowledge in this subject of warfare and strategies
Wouldn’t you mind sharing your reading list
@adityamishra I certainly don’t have deep knowledge, nor science background. This kind of information is available on many American websites and blogs. Nor I’m a well read person. I hardly read 12-15 books in an year. But people who are successful, they end up reading 50 to 100 books in an year.
For instance, how many books and research papers Professor Karnad refers to produce a single book. Add to that his personal links and interaction with who’s who in the industry and his experience. That’s how success stories are made.
I read books on the basis of recommendation by people. To site an example, I came across a Russian who was masquerading as a US Navy personnel on social media. He recommended me three books. Then I had a chat with an American. He recommended me another 6 books. Once I like an author I try to read most of his works. Overall on defence I may not have read more than 15-20 books.
My latest addition is ‘India: The Next Decade’. It was costly but Professor Karnad had written “flawlessly edited by Manmohan Malhotra” so I bit the bullet and ordered it. I received it yesterday and it is superbly packaged. But time is short and I have a long way to go.
Professor,
This is good news. I’ve been reading news articles on the challenges India has had in developing scramjet engines over the last few years, and the many failures or limited success in terms of the duration of hypersonic flight even after developing the scramjet engine. Looks like India is now ahead of China and the U.S. as they haven’t successfully tested such technology yet. Only Russia is ahead.
Weaponising these hypersonic with nuclear weapons will provide India with a strong deterrent.
Agree that more private production of weapon systems should take place. And India needs to increase its defence spending. Engine technologies should be indigenised, and fighter aircrafts, SSNs, tanks, and aircraft carriers, should all be made in India in sufficient numbers. I hope funding for all these programs happens simultaneously and the defence budget is increased to make this happen. At some point test a thermo nuclear weapon. Other areas like EW, SSBNs, Military satellites, cyber attack capabilities, artillery guns, rocket force, BMD, increase in nuclear fission weapons, etc., seem to be progressing well.
there is a story circulating about Tu 60 bomber being offered to India is it true
Tu-160. Yes. (Look up my old posts!)
@sir u asked to sometime back airforce chief about Tu 60 …is it any value addition for india to have a bomber which need elaborative maintenance and other accessories…could it become a white elephant??
It is a strategic asset worth having, the higher maintenance costs notwithstanding. For detailed analysis on Tu-160 in IAF, see my Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)
Negotiations are going on for 1 squadron of tu160m(the latest version)
All this is fine but our militiary leadership is pathetic .In a recent podcast saw how Gen Hooda was fooled its such a sorry state of affairs sometimes i wonder can they fight wars .Our Generals mostly are risk averse and even when a someone like Gen Hooda tries bring some change their intention is to fool him instead of executing the plan.It really creates doubts on our militiary capability inspite of all these tests because the intention is always to fool and cut corners.The armed forces really need to introspect why the quality of our Generals below par they need to be scrutinised more.They simply cannot get away with excuses like they have low budget and they cannot fight because they did not get that one imported weapons some one needs to grill this Generals in Parliament.
According to government officials , GOI didn’t approve the development of hypersonic version of BrahMos because it was an expensive proposition . Even if that is true , we could have recuperated the development costs by exporting it to Vietnam,Philippines and other SE asian countries ,which have already bought the supersonic variant and would have happily signed up for an upgrade. This would contributed to our Defence Exports(where the revenue earned is channeled back into missile R & D ,hence creating a R&D-export positive feedback loop) , reinforced India’s image as a dependable Defence partner and most importantly we would have put China on notice . Now All of this will now not happen !!!
What will now happen is that Pakistani Leadership in their sense of paranoia will say some banalities about India’s Hypersonic Weapon and then China would silently transfer its Hypersonic Missile Tech to its Iron Brother , which Pakistan would claim as indigenously developed . Forget Asia , India gets strategically stymied in its neighbourhood and Indian Leadership running from pillar to post .
@BharatKarnad
professor can this missile be put on tu160(if we purchase)in future
it would give us lethal firepower and the air vector of the triad will become more capable .A long range bomber(12000km) with a 1500km hypersonic missile however i do agree that in future a 5000km(minimum) range hypersonic weapon is a must so that it can take out three gorges, shanghai, beijing from standoff capabilities and ranges
What’s your take on the combination of tu160 and this missile?
This particular missile may be too big to be aircraft-launched. But certainly, a miniaturised version is what I have suggested as priority flexible glide/hypersonic option
@BharatKarnad Re: pvt players taking on productionizing of the misslies, the numbers just aren’t there – no govt has had the gumption to boldly plan a large-scale investment that would make such endeavors viable for pvt industry. In your opinion, what are some ballpark minimal production numbers rounded to the nearest 100s/1000s that need to be sanctioned in order to present a credible deterrent to PLARF + make it attractive for pvt industry? Which govt/mil body is best positioned to make such forecasts?
phalady@ — Perhaps. But the real sustenance, I have always argued, is for the private sector def industrial companies involved to sell de-rated products, including missiles, to developing third countries especially in Southeast Asia.
professor as now we have developed hypersonic capabilities what are the chances that china will proliferate hypersonic missiles to the pakis to make us uncomfortable once again like they have done in the past.
Earlier when you suggested giving N-warheads to Vietnam and Phillipines I had disagreed with your thinking but after realising how much damage the chinese have done to us by limiting us and forcing us to divert a large part of our resources to pakistan I must say I agree with giving nuclear warheads to Vietnam and Phillipines.
let us hope just like the government of India gave brahmos to Vietnam(after you pleaded for years)they must give in future warheads and hypersonic version of brahmos.
Professor in one of your podcast you said that united states stopped the nuclear Programmes of Taiwan, South Korea
But why would they do that i mean Taiwan and South Korea possessing nuclear weapons would not only stop China from using coercion but would eventually help America too by containing China. What was the the reason to force them to stop the programme if you could tell about this
For the same reasons the US stopped India from becoming a thermonuclear weapons power — America wants to remain the ‘dada’ for non-Sinic Asia, the provider of strategic security, and to keep Asian states tied to its military and technology apron strings.
regarding US stopping india from becoming a thermonuclear power professor i think it’s our own government to blame for this stupidity. Vajpayee, manmohan and modi all are equally responsible
Of course, India and the Indian state is to blame. But the US pushes this tendency along. This is the gravamen in the conclusions of my books and writings.
@BharatKarnad
Professor could you write a blog regarding the recent ICBM strike of Russia on Ukraine. Some are saying this is the first ever use of an ICBM in combat. I think putin has clearly said that this time it was MIRV raining with conventional warheads next time it could be nuclear warheads raining on western capitals. If you could discuss this and tell about its implications in future
It was 1st use of MIRVed ICBM. But breaching the N-barrier won’t be easy
Of course putin will be very stupid even if he uses tactical nuclear weapons knowing that trump will be the president in 1-2 months.
but i think this was a show of force by the russians that if their sovereignty is threatened next time nuclear mirvs will be coming instead of conventional.
no doubt this is the reason why you and many patriotic analyst have been suggesting that india also needs an global strike range ICBM with thermonuclear weapons
after seeing this i am convinced that we also need to threaten china like this if we want to protect our sovereignty
you really have a long vision professor.