[Putin & Modi]
On December 8 at an unrelated event in Moscow, the Russian President Vladimir Putin, out of the blue, praised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saying he “cannot be intimidated, threatened or forced to take any action or decision against the national interest of India. I know there is pressure on them.” And added, “To be honest, sometimes I am surprised by his tough stance on protecting the national interests of the Indian people.” Putin may well have been referring to New Delhi’s creative diplomacy linking Russian oil imports and non-support for Ukraine. But he may also have been sending a message to Modi to stand firm in rejecting the US’ incessant demands to hold the Indian official(s) responsible for planning to kill the Khalistani terrorist, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, and otherwise tweaking this issue with the potential to undermine Indo-US relations.
The US Federal Bureau of Investigation chief Christopher Wray will be in Delhi this week with a docket of documents to impress his counterparts in the Indian intelligence agencies, and senior officals in government with “evidence” FBI, alongwith other American electronic and other spy units, collected about the involvement the Biden Administration alleged of RAW to assassinate Khalistani terrorists in the US, with Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, topping the list. After the killing of another Khalistani, Gurmeet Singh Nijjar, in western Canada, Washington, feared Pannnun was in line to be bumped off, and took preemptive action. The Biden Admin went public with “evidence” of this prospective hit — a hit a dope runner of Indian origin, it claimed, sought to arrange by hiring a minor drug trafficking gang member who, to be in the good books of US DEA (Drug Enforcement Agency), happily agreed to play the stool pigeon to implicate the Indian drug trafficker, and connect him to RAW. And how did the US ELINT units pick this info up, pray? Because these desi cloak & dagger guys, apparently used Whatsapp for communicating with each other! This suggests rank amateurs operating outside the RAW ambit, and for the Indian government rightly to claim distance from these nefarious goings-on.
Now, RAW may not be all that sophisticated in its methods, but surely it is not so doltish as to have one of its own — “CC1” use a very public platform — Whatsapp, for god’s sake!! Because if they were foolish enough to do this then they might as well have hung a placard round their necks saying “RAW” and marched around the embassies in question!
Obviously, this is bare-faced nonsense and invention springing out of Langley and the fertile CIA minds specialising in disinformation ops. That should have been the Indian government’s stand from the moment Washington went public with its accusation, rather than, as is normally the case when dealing with a friendly country with which it has some differences, bringing the issue up through official channels and far from public gaze.
But the Biden government went ballistic, but why? Possibly to embarrass the Modi regime and, who knows, per chance, to swing the Indian people’s votes in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Rajasthan against the Bharatiya Janata Party angling to displace the Congress party regimes in these states, because it deems Modi as getting too politically big for their convenience.
This is actually a more convincing explanation for the US blowing this thing up despite the risks of alienating the Modi government. But instead of taking a firm stand dismissing any and all American accusations as absolute fiction and then sticking by this position through thick and thin and no matter what, and refusing to entertain any evidence to the contrary manufactured by the disinformation factories of the US intel complex and propagated by the Western thinktanks and media (and their outlets in India and in the West-influenced Indian media) with record of being so used (Iraq), and rubbishing the proffered evidence as so much obvious cyber/electronic/imagery (the dope runner handing over $100,000 in currency notes in a car — oh, pleeez….!) fakery, the Indian government hoisted itself on to a hook by agreeing to investigate.
What’s there to investigate is the question I asked in my previous three posts, considering that the American case is hokey! And I had wondered whether the Indian government had rendered itself vulnerable by relying on Chinese and American communications hardware and software for even the most secret intra-govt communications. And that such dependence is at the heart of the country’s vulnerability. And in the event that it is a snap for any Western agency to tap into, keep tabs on, whatever is going on in the darkest recesses of the Indian government.
That the Indian official communications system is entirely penetrated, was not admitted, even if the Khalistan issue was alluded to in Rajya Sabha by foreign minister S Jaishankar on December 8. Repeating what the MEA spokesman had said in reaction to the first reports, Jaishankar referred to how “the nexus of organised crime, trafficking and other matters” had a “bearing on our own national security”, and why the Modi regime, he stated, had agreed to a scrutiny by a committee it is constituting for the purpose.
If what is generally known, by way of a rough division of labour in the foreign policy field is true, then National Security Adviser Ajit Doval is in-charge of all matters relating to Pakistan, Punjab, J&K, Islamic extremism and the residual Khalistan problem, and China, and Jaishankar deals with the US, Europe and the rest, and both compete for the Prime Minister’s ear. This competition is reportedly fairly intense, and for the Pannun affair to have unraveled in the way it has, has hurt Doval, and any investigation into this plot will, as is common knowledge, lead to Doval. But because Doval is far closer to Modi than Jaishankar, there’s NO way he will be fingered. That about limits the conclusions the Indian investigators will reach. Whether some subordinate officer is scapegoated remains to be seen. But should that happen RAW morale will plunge. The Modi government, in other words, is faced with bad choices all round and finds itself in an awful situation of its own making because it gave into its impulse of pacifying and placating America.
Can this Committee afford, therefore, to conclude other than that there was a crime-trafficking nexus active in the US which was plotting against Pannun? Will such conclusion be any more credible and, therefore, acceptable to Washington, than consistent denial byIndia of any role? Plainly, it will not be — but this could have been foreseen, no? So, why did Jaishankar and the government formally agree to such investigation? Because it was arm-twisted into doing so? OK. But then if this investigators can only conclude the obvious that there was no Indian involvement whatsoever, then the best solution would have been to adopt the standard response all countries who find themselves in such sticky situations do –deny, deny, and deny some more until everybody is sick and tired of Indian denials and choose to get on with the business of doing business with India! It is an option the Modi government cannot, unfortunately go back to. Instead, India is getting itself entangled in a web Washington is spinning.
[Modi & Biden]
With the Indian government duty-bound, as it were, to absolve itself and its intel agencies of any wrongdoing, and the US government just as serious about making its accusations stick in order to cow down New Delhi, there really is no way out. Had Delhi from the start said and maintained vociferously, as advised in my previous posts, that it had nothing to do with it, and dismissed all evidence the US presented as out and out fake, Washington would have had to reconcile to the fact that India was not going to own up to anything — no matter how much of “hard” evidence the Biden Admin presented to Modi.
If an Indian mea culpa was perceived as not remotely on the cards, and had the Modi regime succeeded in convincing Washington that there was absolutely no give in that respect, the US would have had to either lump it and let the matter slide into a void where other unresolved/irresolvable issues reside. Or, to take recourse to punitive actions and imperil the prospects of dealing jointly with China in the Indo-Pacific. This latter option is what the US too would have ended up preferring because for Biden or any other Administration Pannun’s wellbeing is of zero concern other than as virtue-signalling, and as a political stick to beat India with, compared to needing India to ringfence China. More importantly, it would have sent out a strong message to Pannun and Company in the West that they are in the crosshairs and nobody and no country can save them.
Security Wise 
why only WhatsApp? infect any devices running Android , IOS, Windows ,MAC OS can be controlled by US agencies to spy on anyone using those. Is there any other OS available in market which is not copyright or under control of US or its companies?
Professor, given how India dealt with the U.S. on Russian oil, I still think it’s too early to prejudge how India’s response might be. Being diplomatic and obfuscatory is an art form India is a master at. I fully expect this is how India will deal with the U.S. so let’s wait and see.
India should also rally nations of Global South. Visiting with Russia is fine to show the US we have options, but rallying the Global South will introduce a new pressure point against the American hegemon.
@ Mr. Karnad- “But the Biden government went ballistic, but why? Possibly to embarrass the Modi regime and, who knows, per chance, to swing the Indian people’s votes in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Rajasthan against the Bharatiya Janata Party angling to displace the Congress party regimes in these states, because it deems Modi as getting too politically big for their convenience”
You made a mistake. It seems you wanted to write displace the BJP regimes in these states.
Anyways, the real reason why Biden’s administration went public with this whole saga is due to Modi’s refusal to start an armed conflict with China inspite of repeated urgings of Uncle Sam.
Doval and Modi should deny any involvement of Indian government in this plot.
They can say that the Indian R.A.W agent was acting in his independent capacity without any authorization from the government higher ups.
This so called “CC1” (Indian R.A.W operative) should be suspended without pay for six months after which he should be removed from R.A.W and sent back to his parent cadre, C.R.P.F.
As for Nikhil Gupta aka Nick. Let him spend a few years in a Yankeeland jail. At least he can develop some genuine connections there amongst the gangs of whites, blacks and Mexicans.
“And I had wondered whether the Indian government had rendered itself vulnerable by relying on Chinese and American communications hardware and software for even the most secret intra-govt communications.”
Don’t worry Mr. Karnad. Secret Intra-government communications always happen in face to face meetings, not on telephonic chats. Before such meetings commence everyone present there are required to switch off their mobiles.
Full tension between Uncle Sam & Bharat Matta;
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/us-president-joe-biden-not-travelling-to-india-for-republic-day-101702376218002.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67690614
TTP is supported by Indian government and intelligence agencies. Now who is supporting cross border terrorism?
India likes to cry at the international forums regarding Pakistan exporting terrorism into Indian territory while the Indian establishment itself indulges in terrorist activities through its proxies on Pakistani soil.
Dear Bharat Sir,
As an avid reader and follower of yours over the last 8 years, I highly recommend publishing your blog and future articles on Substack as well.
Perhaps you may have already heard of it. Many (younger) thought leaders across fields, especially gifted in long form written content in the West have gravitated towards it. For e.g. Matthew Yglesias, Richard Hanania, Noah Smith, Matt Taibbi, Bari Weiss, Dominic Cummings, Kareem Abdul Jabbar etc.
I believe it is perfectly suited for your writings and ideas, which urgently need to be understood and digested by a wider audience!
A link to help: https://substack.com/. I’d be happy to help if it could be of assistance.
Great idea! Many thanks. Will explore this option.
“But the Biden government went ballistic, but why? Possibly to embarrass the Modi regime and, who knows, per chance, to swing the Indian people’s votes in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Rajasthan against the Bharatiya Janata Party angling to displace the Congress party regimes in these states, because it deems Modi as getting too politically big for their convenience.”
What kind of weak-ass explanation is this? So much for analysis. US had been buttering up India all this time, claiming it was such a valued partner for Quad, etc, and then suddenly it dumps us over some Khalistani? There’s clearly more going on here than your anemic inspection would expose.
I think the sudden outbreak of Israel-Gaza war has sunk the possibility of IMEC corridor which was to connect Indian market with Europe via a Saudi-Israel lynchpin. Suddenly India has much less worth to the US than before, and they’re looking for an excuse to ditch us. I also think the reigning NeoCons inside the Biden whitehouse might be looking to inflict a repeat of their illegal invasion of Iraq, this time on Iran, which is backing the Hamas and Hezbollah side of the conflict with Israel. In the previous illegal Iraq invasion, the NeoCons fruitlessly tried to rope in India to help carry out their doomed occupation of the place. This time they’d be looking for a pliable regime in Delhi to help them bomb or invade Iran, and that would require replacing the hard-nosed nationalist Modi/BJP govt with the more pliable Sonia/Congress govt.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/defence-ministry-clears-70000-sig-sauer-assault-rifles-for-indian-army/amp_articleshow/105939460.cms
Seriously, do not understand why some people squeal about the US or China riding India roughshod when you have a people within MoD importing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of basic infantry assault rifles while this drama is playing out.
Forget about Atmanirbhar Bharat and all that. These guys are brazenly flouting the Modi government’s import ban on rifles. They are doing this when there are multiple equally capable indigenous options available, from both the private and the public sectors. Besides, I have had enough of the army’s usual crocodile tears about dismal quality of OFB rifles and munitions. Just consider the following: firstly, all CAPFs under the MHA have been buying large quantities of all of the new series of OFB’s high calibre rifles(both 7.62×51 & 7.62×39), as well as their highly capable carbines. Secondly, as far their munitions are concerned, the same rake tens of millions of dollars in the US ammunition market. That wouldn’t have happened if they were of “poor quality”. Hence, this is why I no longer buy the army’s usual hit job articles through “anonymous sources”. GOI must wipe its house clean before it flexes its muscles abroad. In fact, such a cleanup will require a purge of biblical(stalinist) proportions especially in the MEA and the army. Just pray that Modi does just that if he wins the 2024 general elections.
@Ayush- You live in a utopian world devoid of any practicality. Corruption is a universal phenomenon and exists in armies of every nation on the planet.
What difference does it make if the weapons or ammunitions are purchased from an Indian or a foreign company?
These weapons are just meant to be show pieces and will gather rust eventually.
Neither India nor its so called hostile neighbors China and Pakistan are capable of waging any war.
I think India’s response of open to look into any evidence is right. Because US and Canada would have thought that the Indian govt response would be outright denial with this episode. thus they neednot any evidence. because outright denial is the standard response of any govt when such matter comes up. by India’s response India has constrained US and Canada to give conclusive evidence and not cook up stories. India is on high moral platform. even the citizens of these countries are asking for evidences. After looking into evidences India can reject them as baseless but without looking into evidence denial will be considered as some form of linkages with this episode. it means India can have cake and eat it too. US irritation can be guaged with Biden denial to attend our Republic function on a trivial issue.
@Pradhant- Excellent point made by you.
Professor,
More and more it seems like the U.S. is leaning towards the idea that China is a lesser threat thereby implying it needs India less and less. I’m reading reports that the GE 414 engines will be delayed which will delay LCA Mk2 and AMCA. The U.S. wouldn’t do this unless it judged that the Chinese threat is lower now. Also, there has been significant effort by U.S. diplomats to cool tensions with China.
If you look at the billionaire class, which has invested in China – you don’t hear much about the economic mish mash in China from them. They want to protect their investments. Once alternate supply chains are ready, their tune could change. Or it may never if they continue to be invested in China.
But one thing is clear – there are powerful factions in the U.S. which have decided that China is not as much a threat and therefore they need to contain India as well. Whether this a good decision is open for debate. But it’s clear the U.S. is also trying to contain India.
What does this leave India with – explore an alternate engine deal with Safran, while developing the Kaveri. There is no option left but to develop the Kaveri! Geopolitics dictates so. India must also leave the option of detente with China open. It’s a powerful way to manage the U.S.
Amit@ — Very right. The dangers from G2 is what I have been contending since whenever!
Another thing India can do is to cancel the MQB drones order unless GE supplies engines. Open up dialogue with China and put brakes on the MRO facilities for US ships. Put brakes on Quad cooperation and back out of some of the info sharing agreements. After all two can play the game. If the US thinks it can handle China on its own, maybe it should.
The sanctions, be it Jet engine tech or Environmental Control & Life support for astronauts (Gaganyaan) is actually a good thing and I wish it happens.
It will force India to develop those technologies locally and will ensure precious capabilities are developed and nurtured with support of local industries.
Honestly I dont’ get this idea of trying to get hightech from foreign countries. They wont give it to India as they clearly see India as a threat. Ironically though that is a good thing!
Prof Karnad, India should also rally nations of Global South for solidarity. It’s good that India is visiting with Russia right now to show it has options, but rallying the Global South will introduce a new pressure point from us against our backstabbing western adversaries.
Professor,
Here is a quote by Mr. Modi in the FT (interview):
“We need to accept the fact that we are living in the era of multilateralism,” Modi said. “The world is interconnected as well as interdependent. This reality compels us to recognise that absolute agreement on all matters cannot be a prerequisite for collaboration.”
To me this sounds like India is willing to ignore US pushback and still try to remain partners with the U.S. It is also a message to the U.S., that India will continue to push back when its interests are involved. Right hand shake, left hand slap (when required).
Question is what the US response will be. Currently, it is intent on slapping India. How GE engines are supplied for the LCA program will be a key sign of U.S. intent. If these are further delayed, India will react.
But whatever else India does in its response, one thing it should do is to fund the development of the Kaveri engine at warp speed.
Subramanian Swamy has dropped such a big bombshell. What’s the opposition doing? Why media isn’t talking about it;
Professor,
Here is an article which shows the proxy war happening in Gilgit Baltistan- the primary parties being India, US and China. Talk of Pakistan ceding parts of GB to China…
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/gilgit-baltistan-in-hot-waters-pakistan-could-cede-part-of-kashmi/amp/
To me this smells of US shenanigans to make India and China fight. China would not be interested in a direct fight with India at this point since its economy is in a mess and its main adversary is the U.S. not India at least in the medium term. It is therefore not the best time for China to escalate the fight with India in GB, notwithstanding many commentators saying that a weak Xi Jingping will pick a fight to distract domestic audiences and unite the country. Seems like an implausible theory as to take pangas with India is quite risky!
Also, Pakistan must be following US orders now that the IMF has decided to bail it out. There is no way Pakistan can cede its territory to China without U.S. blessings! The U.S. is also the country which stands to gain the most by making India and China fight. Given the recent Pannun episode and the attempt to sabotage the Indian LCA program, it is plausible that this is another front created by the U.S. to pin India down. More and more it seems like the U.S. has decided that China is not such a big threat to it. So it seems to be taking on India simultaneously.
At least that’s what it seems to me. This will be a big proxy fight in India’s neighbourhood, as I can’t imagine India going to war with China at this point, however, grave the provocation. The only winner of that fight will be the U.S.!
Cracking the whip on India is not going to work. Gone is the era of Congress in Delhi and MMS-Bush bonhomie. There is an eye-opening (in my understanding) strategic analysis by MKB:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/indias-turnaround-on-palestine-has-more-than-meets-the-eye/
One could also take note of: https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-war-on-terror-against-houthis-is-smoke-and-mirrors/
It seems, India’s strategic autonomy has suddenly become paramount under the Modi Raj. The lesson has been learned in higher circles in Delhi that Russian weaponry has outclassed its Western counterpart in all directions. According to some retired German military officers Russia is in the path of creating a “blackhole” in Ukraine which will swallow all resources the US and Nato pour in – men and material.
@Professor Karnad:
What is your assessment of this from the latest news columns in the Paki newspaper Dawn:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1801139/russia-india-closer-to-joint-military-equipment-production-russian-fm
It will be great value to know from you the dilly-dallying saga on the fate of the GE engine vis-a-vis what Moscow will offer for the India’s fighter aircrafts considering the Sukhoi fighter are already integrated in IAF.
You are dead wrong to think US issue has any thing to do with desire of USA to influence state elections
Professor,
Now that sufficient time has passed, it looks like the Indian response to US shenanigans has been the strengthening of the RIF partnerships. I guess your BRIS idea may be modified as the BRIFS idea. And in SE Asia it will probably end up being IJIK – India Japan, Indonesia and Korea. Add Australia to the mix if you’d like!
The colossal stupidity of US grand strategists does not seem to end! Slapping India while shaking its hands is turning out to be a stupid mistake the U.S. may regret down the road.
While the U.S. is clearly the undisputed global power, what it does not fully appreciate is that the engine of that power is powered substantially by Indians. Graduate programs in the U.S. are dominated by Indians and with the Chinese being hounded out, the U.S. creative engine needs Indians in even larger numbers to power its R&D engine. They already dominate many parts of the US economy. Note that the key guy who came up with transformer networks, which powers LLM technology, is an Indian.
However, the liberal hegemonists in the U.S. think that they can subdue all powers across the world without facing any consequences. Indians like Fareed Zakaria fuel this kind of megalomania. If you read his article in Foreign Affairs, you will think that the U.S. is still that shining city on the hill!
My guess is that the Indian lobby in the US will become stronger and start to push back against the stupidity that thrives in U.S. foreign policy institutions. My sincere hope is that they succeed as otherwise, the U.S. will end up blundering its way downhill. The need of the hour is for the US to change with the times. Not hark back to the unipolar days. Those days are well gone and dusted!