Responding to my earlier blog on the advanced chip-embedded guidance system successfuly tested on Agni-V, an expert at the cutting edge of these technologies emailed me the following. It will flesh out the understanding of interested readers so I’m copying it here:
“With regards to your latest article, the “fly-by-wire” concept in the A-5 comes from digitally connected multi-channel communications within its body for the control system, thereby reducing a lot of the cabling that would have otherwise gone into these missiles. This serves to reduce the risk of failure in the missile system and increases dependability.
“With regards to the embedding of the guidance system on chip (SOC), which enables the A-5 to possess superior accuracy, there is indeed an on-board computer on the A-5, which is more powerful than any used in previous vehicles. However, previous computers had severe weight, space, and cooling constraints. The guidance SOC based computers that weigh just 200 grams and possess around 7-10 times greater processing power than their predecessors. The embedded guidance SOC concept requires very little power, imposes much less space constraints, requires far less cooling, and, also very importantly, is not only more reliable and efficient, but also allows for far greater flexibility when choosing the warhead configuration.”
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Dr. Karnad, Sir, I have read your superb book on India’s Nuclear Policy published in 2008.
However, I cannot recall any reference to the production rate as being 19 Agnis per year. If it would not be a problem, can you provide a page reference ?
Given that rate, assuming this amounts to about 6 of each of 3 models of Agni per year and given that full production of the Agni-1 and Agni-2 started in about 2003 and Agni-3 (if this has started at all) in about 2009, then wouldn’t the total strength look something like this:
48 Agni-1, 48 Agni-2 and 12 Agni-3
Is this realistic ?
Also, in respect of your very interesting post on the missile bamboozle – which was really an eye opener – what is your estimate on the range of the Agni-V in its current form given the trajectory used was clearly done to simulate a longer range ?
Appreciating your response and your coverage of the Agni-V test
With best regards
Sanjay
I know I have mentioned 19 as the Agni production figure somewhere in my writings. I suspect it is in my ‘India’s Nuclear Policy’. (Pls sift through my chapter on missiles in the book, it will spare me the time that I am putting to finish my next book — ‘India’s Rise’ to be published by Potomac Books, in Washington DC (formerly Brassey’s). That was 2008. Since then the pruduction rate may have been upped, by how much is hard to say but still nowhere enough to act as credible deterrent against China. But the speculatrive breakup on Agni 1 & 2 production seem about right. Time, Agni-3s and 4s, and soon 5s are accorded priority.
Thanks for your reply. It is much appreciated. For the record, I re-read India’s Nuclear Policy again (it was very good indeed) but still could not find a reference to the 19 per year.
In terms of nuclear warheads what is your estimate of the operational or available Indian stockpile?
In India’s Nuclear Policy you suggested that by 2010-2012 that the stockpile would be 200. Has that been achieved and if not how far off are we ?
Thanks again.
Sanjay
Possibly, the 19/year figure was mentioned in some other paper, or something. Once I’m through writing my next and last book, will try and find you the exact reference. Re: the 200 missiles guesstimate, I believe we are near to achieveing it.
Thanks again. Please give us a heads up on your latest book so that we might buy it.
As an aside, what is your estimate of the actual Agni-5 range ?
Actual Agni-5 range. the figure one hears is 8,000 kms.
Once again – thanks a lot.
8000 kms with 1.5 ton payload ? Also, will the future ICBM (if it materializes) be a modification of Agni-5 with a composite 1st stage or will it be the 130-150 ton missile you referred to in one of your books ?
ICBM with a composite first stage.